Lessons from this crash

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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HanSolo
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by HanSolo »

Marty Zweig considered a crash to be a brief but vicious decline, while a bear market was a more protracted affair. Here's his commentary on Wall Street Week, just prior to the 1987 crash:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJWW0LOzOlk&t=397s

By that definition (and what appears to be the consensus on this thread), what we have here is not a crash.

It isn't even a "bear market" yet either (in the most widely used definition of the term), according to S&P 500 closing prices thus far. VTI/VTSAX haven't closed at 20% down either.

You can use other definitions if you like, but it's easier to communicate when people don't make up their own.
jay22 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 12:02 pm What are the lessons that BHs have learned from this crash?
To answer the OP's question, what I've learned in this, let's call it "correction", is that the kinds of things that happened before in the financial markets are probably the same kinds of things that will happen again. The reason we're told about certain kinds of risks is because they actually do happen. Assuming they won't is a bad idea. It's like good weather and bad weather, anyone who's been around for a while expects that we'll get both.

It also reinforces my opinion that many would do well to put their long-term investment money in a target-date index fund and stay the course.
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YeahBuddy
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by YeahBuddy »

There's been a crash?
Light weight baby!
1moreyr
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by 1moreyr »

GAAP wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 3:01 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:48 pm
sailaway wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:16 pm I have learned that many people didn't learn much from the previous crashes.
Well, to be fair, the world keeps creating new people.
Boy, doesn't that say something about our ability to educate younger generations...

Those who don't learn from history -- etc.
well if you're a parent you understand. My sons are both pretty smart people. They do tend to respect my guidance but sometimes they just have to learn on their own.... we have a planet full of "these sons and daughters"
1moreyr
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by 1moreyr »

PicassoSparks wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 9:17 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 2:07 pm I don't agree. While I'm not impacted, lots of people didn't expect equities crashing -19% and bonds crashing -10% at the same time. One of the basic premises of a Boglehead portfolio is inverse correlation of stocks and bonds.
That’s not true. That’s a foundation of hedgefundie’s excellent adventure but never a foundation of the 60/40. If you thought it was, you’ve badly misunderstood. Bonds offer only reduced volatility. Sometimes it’s negatively correlated but not always. Bonds continue to do their job, which is to be lower volatility than an all stock portfolio.
True

i have watched for years my 60/40 portfolio when VTSAX had a daily drop of $20k and VBTLX went up $500 bucks. it was apparent to me then that the reverse relationship wasn't going to save the day. If you were given the choice of being down 18%-20% today or 10% which would you choose? I am not happy about it ,but bonds do seem to be working as intended by buffering the entire portfolio to a lower drop.

What I had read years ago was "bonds fall but stocks crash" that's what we are seeing......
Leesbro63
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Leesbro63 »

1moreyr wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 7:07 am
PicassoSparks wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 9:17 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 2:07 pm I don't agree. While I'm not impacted, lots of people didn't expect equities crashing -19% and bonds crashing -10% at the same time. One of the basic premises of a Boglehead portfolio is inverse correlation of stocks and bonds.
That’s not true. That’s a foundation of hedgefundie’s excellent adventure but never a foundation of the 60/40. If you thought it was, you’ve badly misunderstood. Bonds offer only reduced volatility. Sometimes it’s negatively correlated but not always. Bonds continue to do their job, which is to be lower volatility than an all stock portfolio.
True

i have watched for years my 60/40 portfolio when stocks had a daily drop of $20k and bonds went up $500 bucks. it was apparent to me then that the reverse relationship wasn't going to save the day. but if you were given the choice of being down 18%-20% today or 10% which would you choose. I am not happy about it ,but bonds do seem to be working as intended by buffering the entire portfolio to a lower drop.

What I had read years ago was "bonds fall but stocks crash" that's what we are seeing......
+1. My 50/50 ish portfolio is down 11% YTD. Painful, but kind of a win uncertain present circumstances.
1moreyr
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by 1moreyr »

H-Town wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 9:14 am
Booglie wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 9:08 am
H-Town wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 9:05 am You invest in stocks when your time horizon is greater than 10-15 years. You invest in bonds when bond duration meets your target time horizon. You invest in T-Bills and HYSA for any immediate needs less than a couple of years.

Which one make more sense?
If I have 90% bonds and 10% stocks, why would I need a horizon greater than 10-15 years? Sounds very arbitrary.
What really matters is the overall portfolio volatility. You pick a rate that will yield a volatility that matches your risk tolerance.

After all, it doesn't matter if you have a investing horizon of 50 years if your stock portfolio drops to zero and you are liquidated, does it?
That’s my point. It doesn’t matter. 60/40 or 70/30, or 90/10 are just some arbitrary ratio. How do you know you can tolerate the volatility if you never been a bear market before? As your portfolio grows larger, it means more dollar loss with a percentage decrease. Most would learn it the hard way, would they?

When I see advice about pick an allocation that they can stomach. Okay, how exactly one would do that?
there are many questionairres online that ask you about your investing habits and suggest an allocation. Vanguard has one on their site if you have access to that... This would actually be a good time to take the survey... People take it during good times and think they can stomach more than they can. I take them often whenever I stumble across them to see what they tell me. They are usually close to where i am. I also find specific events in your life will get your to rethink the allocation (retirement, a medical issue. loss of a loved one/parent). so it does help as a double check

They are not perfect and it doesn't mean you have to do it exactly, but if it's telling you you're a 50/50 and you thought you were a 90/10 you should rethink what you doing and maybe go 60/40?
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Charles Joseph
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Charles Joseph »

HanSolo wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:47 am To answer the OP's question, what I've learned in this, let's call it "correction", is that the kinds of things that happened before in the financial markets are probably the same kinds of things that will happen again. The reason we're told about certain kinds of risks is because they actually do happen. Assuming they won't is a bad idea. It's like good weather and bad weather, anyone who's been around for a while expects that we'll get both.
These kinds of corrections are supposed to happen. They are part of investing. Moreover, they need to happen in order for valuations to be adjusted and to ultimately get higher returns.

We should worry when they don't happen.
"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." - Charles Munger
MichRoots
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by MichRoots »

Samuel Glover wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:25 am
HanSolo wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:47 am To answer the OP's question, what I've learned in this, let's call it "correction", is that the kinds of things that happened before in the financial markets are probably the same kinds of things that will happen again. The reason we're told about certain kinds of risks is because they actually do happen. Assuming they won't is a bad idea. It's like good weather and bad weather, anyone who's been around for a while expects that we'll get both.
These kinds of corrections are supposed to happen. They are part of investing. Moreover, they need to happen in order for valuations to be adjusted and to ultimately get higher returns.

We should worry when they don't happen.
I looked at my account balance this morning and was surprised it was so low. But I am not really that concerned and the reason is I calculated what would happen if the market gained back 10%, 20% and 25% from today and realized my account would be have quite a bit more money in it for each rise in the future due to my adjusting AA back into more aggressive investments on the way down.

One investment book I read talks about a poker player and how they don't throw their cards and cuss when they lose a hand. That is because they played the percentages and thus keep a "poker face" because the percentages will always win in the long run. You cannot control what happens when you get a bad hand (or in our case a down market). Sometimes the minority happens - stocks go down, when they do, you reload your hand and play the percentages again. Stocks double every 7-10 years on average.
radiowave
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by radiowave »

Crash? Nah, just a normal downturn.

Lesson learned: value of having a solid IPS and staying the course.

Part of my plan transitioning to retirement this past year was to have ~2 years cash/cash instruments saved. Stuck with that even with current inflation. I sleep well at night :)
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Charles Joseph
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Charles Joseph »

MichRoots wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:35 am
Samuel Glover wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:25 am
HanSolo wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:47 am To answer the OP's question, what I've learned in this, let's call it "correction", is that the kinds of things that happened before in the financial markets are probably the same kinds of things that will happen again. The reason we're told about certain kinds of risks is because they actually do happen. Assuming they won't is a bad idea. It's like good weather and bad weather, anyone who's been around for a while expects that we'll get both.
These kinds of corrections are supposed to happen. They are part of investing. Moreover, they need to happen in order for valuations to be adjusted and to ultimately get higher returns.

We should worry when they don't happen.
I looked at my account balance this morning and was surprised it was so low. But I am not really that concerned and the reason is I calculated what would happen if the market gained back 10%, 20% and 25% from today and realized my account would be have quite a bit more money in it for each rise in the future due to my adjusting AA back into more aggressive investments on the way down.

One investment book I read talks about a poker player and how they don't throw their cards and cuss when they lose a hand. That is because they played the percentages and thus keep a "poker face" because the percentages will always win in the long run. You cannot control what happens when you get a bad hand (or in our case a down market). Sometimes the minority happens - stocks go down, when they do, you reload your hand and play the percentages again. Stocks double every 7-10 years on average.
I love poker and play all the time! My poker mentor taught me: "Don't focus on whether or not you win or lose an individual hand. Focus on playing correctly, and over time the math will work in your favor and you will be a winner."

Never thought of it before but you're right! Very similar to investing, especially as you say, in down markets. Thanks for that!
"The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting." - Charles Munger
Harmanic
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Harmanic »

radiowave wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:54 am Crash? Nah, just a normal downturn.

Lesson learned: value of having a solid IPS and staying the course.

Part of my plan transitioning to retirement this past year was to have ~2 years cash/cash instruments saved. Stuck with that even with current inflation. I sleep well at night :)
There has been a crash in certain speculative sectors, like unprofitable tech companies and crypto. In that sense this is similar to the dotcom crash, with ARKK being the poster child of the current excesses. Many of the stocks in those companies are down 50+%. If 2000-2003 is any guide, they still have a long way to go. ARKK at $10 seems to be a possibility.
The question isn't at what age I want to retire, it's at what income. | - George Foreman
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by friar1610 »

Lessons (re)learned from this crash/downturn/bear market/correction or whatever:

- having a pension (or any steady income stream like an annuity) relieves a lot of anxiety
- FI income diversification (funds/bonds of different durations, CDs, I-Bonds, MYGAs, MM/cash) is as important as equity diversification

I’ve made one very modest reallocation into equities recently and may make more to maintain target AA depending on how things develop. But I have a minimum fixed-income floor below which I won’t drop even if it alters my AA.
Friar1610 | 50-ish/50-ish - a satisficer, not a maximizer
newyorker
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by newyorker »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 10:43 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 10:31 pm Honestly nothing learned. Dont know what I could have done differently.
You could have lump summed! I won't forget the day when you spoke ill of DCAing.
DCA is my motto haha
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Marseille07 »

newyorker wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 3:38 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 10:43 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 10:31 pm Honestly nothing learned. Dont know what I could have done differently.
You could have lump summed! I won't forget the day when you spoke ill of DCAing.
DCA is my motto haha
Crisis averted. It's actually a lesson from this downturn in my opinion.
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peskypesky
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by peskypesky »

Hmmm, what have I learned?
That stocks go up, but they sometimes go down. And it sucks when they go down.

Oh, and that maybe I should have some bonds in my portfolio. Ugh.
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Parkinglotracer »

viewtopic.php?p=5880088#p5880088

Longer duration Bonds have higher interest risk.
Last edited by Parkinglotracer on Tue May 24, 2022 5:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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220volt
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by 220volt »

There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again
- Jesse Livermore
"If I had only followed the advice of financial analysts in 2008, I'd have a million dollars today, provided I started with a hundred million dollars" - Jon Stewart
alfaspider
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by alfaspider »

peskypesky wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 11:58 pm Hmmm, what have I learned?
That stocks go up, but they sometimes go down. And it sucks when they go down.

Oh, and that maybe I should have some bonds in my portfolio. Ugh.
Bonds have been hit pretty hard though. Not much of a shelter in bonds in a rising rate environment.
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peskypesky
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by peskypesky »

alfaspider wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:20 pm
peskypesky wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 11:58 pm Hmmm, what have I learned?
That stocks go up, but they sometimes go down. And it sucks when they go down.

Oh, and that maybe I should have some bonds in my portfolio. Ugh.
Bonds have been hit pretty hard though. Not much of a shelter in bonds in a rising rate environment.
Yeah, I know bonds haven't done great either. Just not as bad as stocks, right?

I've only been in stocks in recent years, because bond returns were so low, and I've always been VERY aggressive in my investing.

But I now realize that after amassing serious gains with my stocks, and retiring early, I should have cashed out a bunch of my chips and put them into bonds in 2021. Maybe like 25-30%.

But, like many, I got caught up in stock market euphoria and greed (on my part).
Marseille07
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Marseille07 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:24 pm Yeah, I know bonds haven't done great either. Just not as bad as stocks, right?

I've only been in stocks in recent years, because bond returns were so low, and I've always been VERY aggressive in my investing.

But I now realize that after amassing serious gains with my stocks, and retiring early, I should have cashed out a bunch of my chips and put them into bonds in 2021. Maybe like 25-30%.

But, like many, I got caught up in stock market euphoria and greed (on my part).
Why 25~30%? Just curious why you think you need that much. I might walk later this year and I constantly debate 5% vs 10% in cash.

10% sounds a lot to me, especially when your portfolio grows larger. For example, at 5M do you really need 500K sitting in cash?
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by investnoob »

I allowed myself to think that 15% to 20% returns were "normal." Gave me dreams of retiring in my 40s.
This "lesson" was really just a wake-up call - a return to reality.

So I re-read my IPS a month or so ago. It reminded me why I invest (i.e., not to retire in my 40s but for something else) and what the investments were for, and what I will do as time goes on.
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peskypesky
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by peskypesky »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:59 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:24 pm Yeah, I know bonds haven't done great either. Just not as bad as stocks, right?

I've only been in stocks in recent years, because bond returns were so low, and I've always been VERY aggressive in my investing.

But I now realize that after amassing serious gains with my stocks, and retiring early, I should have cashed out a bunch of my chips and put them into bonds in 2021. Maybe like 25-30%.

But, like many, I got caught up in stock market euphoria and greed (on my part).
Why 25~30%? Just curious why you think you need that much. I might walk later this year and I constantly debate 5% vs 10% in cash.

10% sounds a lot to me, especially when your portfolio grows larger. For example, at 5M do you really need 500K sitting in cash?
First, my portfolio will never be 5M, or anywhere close to that. And I wouldn't have the money sitting in cash. It would be in bonds. I'm sort of estimating having enough bonds to weather a 5-year down market.
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Marseille07 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:20 pm First, my portfolio will never be 5M, or anywhere close to that. And I wouldn't have the money sitting in cash. It would be in bonds. I'm sort of estimating having enough bonds to weather a 5-year down market.
I see. I tried bonds for a couple of months and didn't like them, much rather hold cash. It's hard to beat the liquidity and I don't have to worry about the yield curve rising.
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peskypesky
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by peskypesky »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:30 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:20 pm First, my portfolio will never be 5M, or anywhere close to that. And I wouldn't have the money sitting in cash. It would be in bonds. I'm sort of estimating having enough bonds to weather a 5-year down market.
I see. I tried bonds for a couple of months and didn't like them, much rather hold cash. It's hard to beat the liquidity and I don't have to worry about the yield curve rising.
I definitely need to do more research on the pros and cons of bonds.
This has some food for thought:
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/bon ... -portfolio

"According to research by Russell Investments, since 1997 the correlation between stock and bond returns has been mainly negative. In other words, when one goes up, the other tends to go down, and vice versa."
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Marseille07 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:50 pm I definitely need to do more research on the pros and cons of bonds.
This has some food for thought:
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/bon ... -portfolio

"According to research by Russell Investments, since 1997 the correlation between stock and bond returns has been mainly negative. In other words, when one goes up, the other tends to go down, and vice versa."
This property is a nice-to-have but not a must. We can count on cash just fine during a downturn.
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Gracie77
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Gracie77 »

HanSolo wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:47 am To answer the OP's question, what I've learned in this, let's call it "correction", is that the kinds of things that happened before in the financial markets are probably the same kinds of things that will happen again. The reason we're told about certain kinds of risks is because they actually do happen. Assuming they won't is a bad idea. It's like good weather and bad weather, anyone who's been around for a while expects that we'll get both.
In the above context, I learned that people don't like to feel stupid and if they can do something (anything) that makes them feel less stupid they will likely do it. Long term consequences are ignored whether knowingly or unknowingly.
WhiteMaxima
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by WhiteMaxima »

There is nowhere to hide you cash. I follow Jack Bogle's advice, stay invested, stay diversified, never time the market, stay calm and stay the course. Actually, I treat this crash as another opportunity to load more equity. Thanks market.
Intrepyd
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by Intrepyd »

Lesson from a high inflation regime:

I Bonds are close to a free lunch, subject to the purchase limits. No principle risk, guaranteed high nominal return during inflation, easy entry and exit. One can buy a slug of I Bonds when rates are good, with the knowledge that they can exit the holding with a minimum penalty if/when the variable rates become unattractive.
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peskypesky
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by peskypesky »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:13 pm There is nowhere to hide you cash. I follow Jack Bogle's advice, stay invested, stay diversified, never time the market, stay calm and stay the course. Actually, I treat this crash as another opportunity to load more equity. Thanks market.
I'm staying the course too. But I wish I had followed my instincts and bought gold back in December when I was looking into it.
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LilyFleur
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by LilyFleur »

HanSolo wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:47 am Marty Zweig considered a crash to be a brief but vicious decline, while a bear market was a more protracted affair. Here's his commentary on Wall Street Week, just prior to the 1987 crash:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJWW0LOzOlk&t=397s

By that definition (and what appears to be the consensus on this thread), what we have here is not a crash.

It isn't even a "bear market" yet either (in the most widely used definition of the term), according to S&P 500 closing prices thus far. VTI/VTSAX haven't closed at 20% down either.

You can use other definitions if you like, but it's easier to communicate when people don't make up their own.
jay22 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 12:02 pm What are the lessons that BHs have learned from this crash?
To answer the OP's question, what I've learned in this, let's call it "correction", is that the kinds of things that happened before in the financial markets are probably the same kinds of things that will happen again. The reason we're told about certain kinds of risks is because they actually do happen. Assuming they won't is a bad idea. It's like good weather and bad weather, anyone who's been around for a while expects that we'll get both.

It also reinforces my opinion that many would do well to put their long-term investment money in a target-date index fund and stay the course.
I am quite glad I am not invested in a target date fund and can withdraw from my stable value fund this year. I'm early retired. I'm too frugal to spend from assets that are down.
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ray.james
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by ray.james »

peskypesky wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:26 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:13 pm There is nowhere to hide you cash. I follow Jack Bogle's advice, stay invested, stay diversified, never time the market, stay calm and stay the course. Actually, I treat this crash as another opportunity to load more equity. Thanks market.
I'm staying the course too. But I wish I had followed my instincts and bought gold back in December when I was looking into it.
Its 65 bucks. 3.5% increase from December. You must be joking sir, if your conviction in the asset class and decision changed because of that!
Last edited by ray.james on Wed May 25, 2022 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
bagastuff
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by bagastuff »

I learned not to try and pick stocks. (I also found this forum.) I can tell you that a tall column of red numbers is far more panic-inspiring than a single

VTI -2%
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ralphboy
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by ralphboy »

I'm in the process of fixing my portfolio and I feel like the crash has helped me decide to go with a target date index fund. I am on the fence between what asset allocation to have: Bonds if any and was debating between 100% US or having some in international. Also when or if I should increase my bonds as I get closer towards retirement or just have the same stock/bond allocation for life. I'm 36 now, thinking I'll retire at 67 and am leaning towards the Fidelity Freedom Index 2055 fund (FDEWX) but was also considering a 60/40- 70/30 fund like Fidelity Balanced Fund (FBALX) but have read on here its not the best choice because of its expense ratio. At least then I won't have to worry about what to do and when to do it. I find trying to educate myself on finances to be well beyond my pay grade and I am not confident in making future financial decisions.
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by hudson »

ralphboy wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:40 pm I find trying to educate myself on finances to be well beyond my pay grade and I am not confident in making future financial decisions.
These books helped me...
maybe worth a look

viewtopic.php?p=5372762#p5372762

maybe the books can get you past E-8, W-4, or O-6?
Last edited by hudson on Wed May 25, 2022 2:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
atdharris
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by atdharris »

I am not sure I even call this a crash because it has happened over the span of 6 months. It feels like the market is now deciding whether it has found bottom or if we are just taking a reprieve before the next leg down.
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HanSolo
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by HanSolo »

LilyFleur wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:28 pm
HanSolo wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 2:47 am It also reinforces my opinion that many would do well to put their long-term investment money in a target-date index fund and stay the course.
I am quite glad I am not invested in a target date fund and can withdraw from my stable value fund this year. I'm early retired. I'm too frugal to spend from assets that are down.
Note that I said "long-term investment money", meaning money you don't need for, say, 10 years or more. So there'd be no need to spend from the target date fund this year (other than take distributions, if you want).
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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peskypesky
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by peskypesky »

ray.james wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:40 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:26 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:13 pm There is nowhere to hide you cash. I follow Jack Bogle's advice, stay invested, stay diversified, never time the market, stay calm and stay the course. Actually, I treat this crash as another opportunity to load more equity. Thanks market.
I'm staying the course too. But I wish I had followed my instincts and bought gold back in December when I was looking into it.
Its 65 bucks. 3.5% increase from December. You must be joking sir, if your conviction in the asset class and decision changed because of that!
Have you seen what has happened to the other asset classes? You must be joking, sir, if you think +3.5% is not significantly better than -20% or -15% or -10%.
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peskypesky
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by peskypesky »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:48 pm I am not sure I even call this a crash because it has happened over the span of 6 months. It feels like the market is now deciding whether it has found bottom or if we are just taking a reprieve before the next leg down.
It's not a crash, but a slow grind down.
elderwise
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by elderwise »

We not done yet.

We should update this thread 1.5 years from now in retrospect we will know exactly what we have learned.

So far , it seems market is very sensitive to Feds comments. And that tech bubble is finally bursting...
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ray.james
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by ray.james »

peskypesky wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 6:45 pm
ray.james wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:40 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:26 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:13 pm There is nowhere to hide you cash. I follow Jack Bogle's advice, stay invested, stay diversified, never time the market, stay calm and stay the course. Actually, I treat this crash as another opportunity to load more equity. Thanks market.
I'm staying the course too. But I wish I had followed my instincts and bought gold back in December when I was looking into it.
Its 65 bucks. 3.5% increase from December. You must be joking sir, if your conviction in the asset class and decision changed because of that!
Have you seen what has happened to the other asset classes? You must be joking, sir, if you think +3.5% is not significantly better than -20% or -15% or -10%.
I thought you were in cash before the crash. So buying gold is now just 3.5% expensive. Might have misunderstood.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
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peskypesky
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Re: Lessons from this crash

Post by peskypesky »

ray.james wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 7:50 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 6:45 pm
ray.james wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:40 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:26 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:13 pm There is nowhere to hide you cash. I follow Jack Bogle's advice, stay invested, stay diversified, never time the market, stay calm and stay the course. Actually, I treat this crash as another opportunity to load more equity. Thanks market.
I'm staying the course too. But I wish I had followed my instincts and bought gold back in December when I was looking into it.
Its 65 bucks. 3.5% increase from December. You must be joking sir, if your conviction in the asset class and decision changed because of that!
Have you seen what has happened to the other asset classes? You must be joking, sir, if you think +3.5% is not significantly better than -20% or -15% or -10%.
I thought you were in cash before the crash. So buying gold is now just 3.5% expensive. Might have misunderstood.
Nope. All equities.
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