I find discussing secret strategies kind of mystifying. What is the point? Reasons I can imagine to keep a strategy secret:CraigTester wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 7:42 amYour rebalance (magic bullet) comment always strikes me as funny..... I'm never sure if you're betting that your BND leg will bail you out?....but if the SP500 falls while you have a 50% position in it, and interest rates are already at historic lows (and likely to increase per the Fed having no choice), it's hard to see a high probability scenario where you lock in gains....HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 4:48 amNope, because anyone who rebalanced on the way up locked in some gains and would still be ahead.
Remember the goal here is to make more money than the buy and hold and rebalance crowd.
If he buys at 2200, he might be slightly ahead of the person who was 100% stocks this whole time and rode it all the way up and all the way down.
But will he buy at 2200? Won't CAPE still be pretty high?
And, of course, we're all kind of stubborn here... I'm sure we'll still argue about strategy vs. results in any case (just like the OP is arguing that his strategy is superior even though currently his results are terrible).
1) realization that one can't defend the strategy logically
2) belief that one could defend the strategy logically, but doesn't want to bother (totally fair, but why allude to it then?)
3) belief that disclosing the strategy would make everyone copy it and dilute its effectiveness (meh, but possible, and again why mention it?)
4) ????
I'm having trouble picturing *why* I'd refer to a secret superior strategy in a public forum if *I* had one under any assumptions I can imagine. If I were doing such a thing, I'd feel like *I* was taunting people. Obviously everyone has different motivations....