She did and it was, but now the doors are locked and the windows boarded up. I hope she comes back soon - she's interesting.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:40 pmShe has her very own thread across town in Personal Investments. It's very nice, with cozy chairs, and chamomile tea.
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like another green day tomorrow if futures hold up.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
IF we believed that was going to happen, we'd be in the "soaring" thread...
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Aren't tautologies fun?strummer6969 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 10:01 pm Looks like another green day tomorrow if futures hold up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Im low on cash due to recent investment property purchase. I am down quite a bit from ATHs and dont mind market giving me a chance to put some cash in before recovering. This will be a forgetten blip for long term holders.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guarantee, with 100% chance, that in the next 20-30 years, there will be at least one recessionstrummer6969 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 9:34 pmYou mean the guy who pumped up Dogecoin can't be taken seriously
In a recent paper Larry Summers put the chance of a recession at 100%. Of course I'll take any 100% prediction with a grain of salt.
The views on where we're going next are so divergent, more than any other time I can recall.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm not sure. The thing is that we have a hike every 45 days, plus FOMC minutes coming up next week.NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
May not have seen the absolute bottom but I think we're done nosediving for the time being. You can already pat yourself on the back for not loading up 6 weeks ago, even if it does eventually go down from here.NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
On April 29th, Jeremy Siegel said the stock market looked attractive for long-term investors, when the S&P was about 4,100-4,200. At the moment, it's 4,087.
CNBC link
CNBC link
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Inflation is not "running 8%+"; that's a year over year number. The monthly change in seasonally adjusted CPI for April was 0.33%, which is an annualized rate of 4.06%.boogiehead wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm not sure why you keep disagreeing with this. Inflation 8% YoY is what we mean when we say it is running 8%+. Yes, this situation can change depending on the month.
Monthly changes are too noisy, some months say 15% some months say 4.06%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
April was lower due to decreases in energy costs that have quickly reversed in May. Core CPI (less food and energy) was 0.57% in April or an annualized rate of 7%.Kevin M wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:26 pmInflation is not "running 8%+"; that's a year over year number. The monthly change in seasonally adjusted CPI for April was 0.33%, which is an annualized rate of 4.06%.boogiehead wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
As Kevin notes, the annualized number is not as dire as the year-over-year, which still has the COVID-induced lower demand still being factored in.boogiehead wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pmNah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Jacking the funds rate to 10% is not the answer. (Well, it would be an answer, but one with terrible consequences.) While you can affect demand inflation (maybe, jury's out on that), there's a base-level of supply that cannot be avoided. E.g., oil. Sure, you might be able to get people to postpone non-essential travel, but you're not going to affect how much gas I'm going to use driving to work and the grocery store. I can only lower the thermostat that runs my oil furnace by a finite amount. While you can lower demand for second+ homes, the truth is that the US is millions of housing units short due to the GFC.
Not to mention the supply disruptions due to an unexpected war in Europe. (I can confidently say unexpected because my company was working with a Ukrainian government agency. The Monday before the invasion, our execs were talking to their execs, and the topic of Russia's build up was discussed. Literally three days before the invasion, the sentiment was basically preparing for a hurricane or blizzard.)
While I think they'll be successful in tamping down flexible demand, the net result will still be higher-than-desired inflation. There are just too many things outside of their control.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Actually a 0.5 hike with rates currently at 0.75 is much bigger than a 0.5 hike when rates are at 6%.boogiehead wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pmNah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
It's huge jump, percentage wise, and that does matter.
"Oh, we've been borrowing at 6%, now we have to borrow at 6.5%... Meh..."
"Oh, we've been borrowing at 0.75%... holy cow, a 0.5 jump? our interest costs just went up 66%!"
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
In the 70s, too, inflation was due in part to things outside the Fed's control. The main lesson from the 70s is to not allow higher inflation expectations to get entrenched. I believe they will do everything in their power to get it down to their 2% goal.exodusNH wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 pmAs Kevin notes, the annualized number is not as dire as the year-over-year, which still has the COVID-induced lower demand still being factored in.boogiehead wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pmNah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Jacking the funds rate to 10% is not the answer. (Well, it would be an answer, but one with terrible consequences.) While you can affect demand inflation (maybe, jury's out on that), there's a base-level of supply that cannot be avoided. E.g., oil. Sure, you might be able to get people to postpone non-essential travel, but you're not going to affect how much gas I'm going to use driving to work and the grocery store. I can only lower the thermostat that runs my oil furnace by a finite amount. While you can lower demand for second+ homes, the truth is that the US is millions of housing units short due to the GFC.
Not to mention the supply disruptions due to an unexpected war in Europe. (I can confidently say unexpected because my company was working with a Ukrainian government agency. The Monday before the invasion, our execs were talking to their execs, and the topic of Russia's build up was discussed. Literally three days before the invasion, the sentiment was basically preparing for a hurricane or blizzard.)
While I think they'll be successful in tamping down flexible demand, the net result will still be higher-than-desired inflation. There are just too many things outside of their control.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
There is some hypotheses that indicate what we attribute to the Fed's deftness in controlling inflation over the last 40 years was really the effect of globalization driving prices down, in particular cheap labor in China. Even ignoring the changes everyone is contemplating supply chains due to COVID and Ukraine, the demographics of China simply won't support this in the future.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 4:16 pmThe main lesson from the 70s is to not allow higher inflation expectations to get entrenched. I believe they will do everything in their power to get it down to their 2% goal.exodusNH wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 pmAs Kevin notes, the annualized number is not as dire as the year-over-year, which still has the COVID-induced lower demand still being factored in.boogiehead wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pmNah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Jacking the funds rate to 10% is not the answer. (Well, it would be an answer, but one with terrible consequences.) While you can affect demand inflation (maybe, jury's out on that), there's a base-level of supply that cannot be avoided. E.g., oil. Sure, you might be able to get people to postpone non-essential travel, but you're not going to affect how much gas I'm going to use driving to work and the grocery store. I can only lower the thermostat that runs my oil furnace by a finite amount. While you can lower demand for second+ homes, the truth is that the US is millions of housing units short due to the GFC.
Not to mention the supply disruptions due to an unexpected war in Europe. (I can confidently say unexpected because my company was working with a Ukrainian government agency. The Monday before the invasion, our execs were talking to their execs, and the topic of Russia's build up was discussed. Literally three days before the invasion, the sentiment was basically preparing for a hurricane or blizzard.)
While I think they'll be successful in tamping down flexible demand, the net result will still be higher-than-desired inflation. There are just too many things outside of their control.
Unfortunately, this is getting off topic, other than to say that higher than desired inflation is here to stay, with all the bad effects that come with it. I'm not suggesting 8% is the new norm, but that getting to 2% is going to be extraordinary difficult. Had Ukraine not happened and had we, collectively, managed to control COVID, that would be a different story.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Stay on topic about the stock market. The thread is getting derailed about inflation.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:35 pmI'm not sure why you keep disagreeing with this. Inflation 8% YoY is what we mean when we say it is running 8%+.
Just because it's common to use present tense when past tense is accurate, it doesn't mean that it's correct. If you mean inflation was 8.22% for the year ending in April, then just say so.
YoY inflation is backward looking. Monthly inflation also is backward looking, but less so. What's more relevant to decision making are breakeven inflation rates, which are less than 3% for maturities about five years and longer.
I don't know.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:35 pm Monthly changes are too noisy, some months say 15% some months say 4.06%.
Clearly looks like a change in trend line, and I don't see anything similar for April last year.
Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And now back to our regularly scheduling programming...
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We'll see, I have a prediction of a new low forming this week. So far looks like I'm wrong, but today is starting to look red..
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If you expand the range on CPI, today's rate of change sure looks frightening to me.Kevin M wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 4:57 pmMarseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:35 pmI'm not sure why you keep disagreeing with this. Inflation 8% YoY is what we mean when we say it is running 8%+.
Just because it's common to use present tense when past tense is accurate, it doesn't mean that it's correct. If you mean inflation was 8.22% for the year ending in April, then just say so.
YoY inflation is backward looking. Monthly inflation also is backward looking, but less so. What's more relevant to decision making are breakeven inflation rates, which are less than 3% for maturities about five years and longer.
I don't know.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue May 17, 2022 2:35 pm Monthly changes are too noisy, some months say 15% some months say 4.06%.
Clearly looks like a change in trend line, and I don't see anything similar for April last year.
Kevin
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Why?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Because it has never risen that fast in such a short time. What do you think?
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Need a log scale.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A reversal today would verify your prediction. The day is young.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Because this isn't the U.S. Inflation thread I'll just mention that U.S stocks are down today. Still above where we opened yesterday but there's more time to fall. This week is pay week so whichever way it wants to move is OK.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guess inflation doesn't impact stock prices?case_of_ennui wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:23 am Because this isn't the U.S. Inflation thread I'll just mention that U.S stocks are down today. Still above where we opened yesterday but there's more time to fall. This week is pay week so whichever way it wants to move is OK.
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I am not convinced as some (most) that it is going to be persistent. I am more concerned about the continued, persistent exodus of Boomers and older Gen Xers from the workforce.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:
Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
corn18 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:28 amI guess inflation doesn't impact stock prices?case_of_ennui wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:23 am Because this isn't the U.S. Inflation thread I'll just mention that U.S stocks are down today. Still above where we opened yesterday but there's more time to fall. This week is pay week so whichever way it wants to move is OK.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Eh, one, both or neither. Buffett makes individual stock plays so the market/economy can be going up, down or sideways and his investments might move with or against it.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 8:38 pmWell Elon Musk says we'll probably be in a recession lasting up to 18 months.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 3:17 pm"No one knows anything" but Warren Buffett is buying.atdharris wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pmNo one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.
"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) turned into an active buyer of stocks during the volatile first quarter, especially in the quarter's final six weeks, after a long stretch of muted purchases.
Investors already know that Buffett's Berkshire doubled down on Chevron (CVX) in Q1 and has been snapping up Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with oil prices near highs. The conglomerate also added to top holding Apple (AAPL) during the stock's Q1 sell-off, and bought more shares of Activision Blizzard (ATVI)."
https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ay-q1-13f/
The dude dropped $41B in net stock buys against $7B in net sales.
There will be some oversold bargains out there with good fundamentals if you are willing to buy into individual companies. I can see why he gambled on more ATVI given the $95 offer...we'll know soonish if it closes. AAPL seems less of a gamble.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
One of these two men will be wrong.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:
Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This seems like an unprecedented move down in retail. Has anything like this happened before? I'm assuming the last time a hit like this occurred in retail might have been 1987?atdharris wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 amThis has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:
Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Buying SQQQ like I wanted to yesterday would've been a great move. We'll probably head back to 52 week lows now that we had a couple of big up days on yesterday and on Friday.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
atdharris wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 amThis has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:
Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.
Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You mean stagflation (inflation + recession)elderwise wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 amatdharris wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 amThis has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:
Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.
Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
+1 Stagflationtrirunner wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:18 amYou mean stagflation (inflation + recession)elderwise wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 amatdharris wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 amThis has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:
Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.
Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
"I made my money by selling too soon." |
Bernard M. Baruch
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Darling Costco down 12%.
- Chief_Engineer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My Google news feed was filled with headlines like "Target CEO sees shift in consumer spending" and "Demand for mortgages fall 12%"
Not good indicators I guess.
If we do have a recession soon, or have already entered one, would this be a case of the yield curve inversion failing to predict a recession? Interesting if so.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
there is no yield curve inversion for stagflation.Chief_Engineer wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:24 amMy Google news feed was filled with headlines like "Target CEO sees shift in consumer spending" and "Demand for mortgages fall 12%"
Not good indicators I guess.
If we do have a recession soon, or have already entered one, would this be a case of the yield curve inversion failing to predict a recession? Interesting if so.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The current accepted definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP, which feels like a lock at this point. So it's not a matter of if, but how bad.elderwise wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 amatdharris wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 amThis has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.AnalogKid22 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:
Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.
Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
Bogleheads® emphasize regular saving, broad diversification, and sticking to one's investment plan regardless of market conditions.
- Chief_Engineer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It "worked" in the 70s when we last saw stagflation.trirunner wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:26 amthere is no yield curve inversion for stagflation.Chief_Engineer wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:24 amMy Google news feed was filled with headlines like "Target CEO sees shift in consumer spending" and "Demand for mortgages fall 12%"
Not good indicators I guess.
If we do have a recession soon, or have already entered one, would this be a case of the yield curve inversion failing to predict a recession? Interesting if so.
-
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Annnnd...this week we learn that the value darlings can't keep up with inflation. There aren't too many places left to hide in the market.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It was going to happen eventually. No real reason KO, PG, CLX, SHW, etc should be trading at 25-40x earnings.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:42 am Annnnd...this week we learn that the value darlings can't keep up with inflation. There aren't too many places left to hide in the market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like investors really took to those articles about buying value and selling growth.atdharris wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:46 amIt was going to happen eventually. No real reason KO, PG, CLX, SHW, etc should be trading at 25-40x earnings.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:42 am Annnnd...this week we learn that the value darlings can't keep up with inflation. There aren't too many places left to hide in the market.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
RBD confirmed for the S&P.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.