U.S. stocks in free fall

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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:40 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:35 pm Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
She has her very own thread across town in Personal Investments. It's very nice, with cozy chairs, and chamomile tea.
She did and it was, but now the doors are locked and the windows boarded up. I hope she comes back soon - she's interesting.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

Looks like another green day tomorrow if futures hold up.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

strummer6969 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:01 pm ...if futures hold up.
😂 IF we believed that was going to happen, we'd be in the "soaring" thread...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

strummer6969 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:01 pm Looks like another green day tomorrow if futures hold up.
Aren't tautologies fun? :mrgreen:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

JoMoney wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:09 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:01 pm ...if futures hold up.
😂 IF we believed that was going to happen, we'd be in the "soaring" thread...
Can't we just have one more bear rally before continuing our decent? I'm starting to miss the soaring thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

Im low on cash due to recent investment property purchase. I am down quite a bit from ATHs and dont mind market giving me a chance to put some cash in before recovering. This will be a forgetten blip for long term holders.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

strummer6969 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:34 pm
JoMoney wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:49 pm I don't even know if Elon Musk saying there will be a recession means he believes that, Elon says lots of stuff.
You mean the guy who pumped up Dogecoin can't be taken seriously :wink:

In a recent paper Larry Summers put the chance of a recession at 100%. Of course I'll take any 100% prediction with a grain of salt.

The views on where we're going next are so divergent, more than any other time I can recall.
I guarantee, with 100% chance, that in the next 20-30 years, there will be at least one recession :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bogle-007 »

Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

NewbieBogle007 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
I'm not sure. The thing is that we have a hike every 45 days, plus FOMC minutes coming up next week.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bagastuff »

NewbieBogle007 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
May not have seen the absolute bottom but I think we're done nosediving for the time being. You can already pat yourself on the back for not loading up 6 weeks ago, even if it does eventually go down from here.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by boogiehead »

NewbieBogle007 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Nah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

On April 29th, Jeremy Siegel said the stock market looked attractive for long-term investors, when the S&P was about 4,100-4,200. At the moment, it's 4,087.

CNBC link
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Kevin M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Kevin M »

boogiehead wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
Inflation is not "running 8%+"; that's a year over year number. The monthly change in seasonally adjusted CPI for April was 0.33%, which is an annualized rate of 4.06%.
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Kevin M wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:26 pm Inflation is not "running 8%+"; that's a year over year number. The monthly change in seasonally adjusted CPI for April was 0.33%, which is an annualized rate of 4.06%.
I'm not sure why you keep disagreeing with this. Inflation 8% YoY is what we mean when we say it is running 8%+. Yes, this situation can change depending on the month.

Monthly changes are too noisy, some months say 15% some months say 4.06%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Chief_Engineer »

Kevin M wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:26 pm
boogiehead wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
Inflation is not "running 8%+"; that's a year over year number. The monthly change in seasonally adjusted CPI for April was 0.33%, which is an annualized rate of 4.06%.
April was lower due to decreases in energy costs that have quickly reversed in May. Core CPI (less food and energy) was 0.57% in April or an annualized rate of 7%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

boogiehead wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Nah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
As Kevin notes, the annualized number is not as dire as the year-over-year, which still has the COVID-induced lower demand still being factored in.

Jacking the funds rate to 10% is not the answer. (Well, it would be an answer, but one with terrible consequences.) While you can affect demand inflation (maybe, jury's out on that), there's a base-level of supply that cannot be avoided. E.g., oil. Sure, you might be able to get people to postpone non-essential travel, but you're not going to affect how much gas I'm going to use driving to work and the grocery store. I can only lower the thermostat that runs my oil furnace by a finite amount. While you can lower demand for second+ homes, the truth is that the US is millions of housing units short due to the GFC.

Not to mention the supply disruptions due to an unexpected war in Europe. (I can confidently say unexpected because my company was working with a Ukrainian government agency. The Monday before the invasion, our execs were talking to their execs, and the topic of Russia's build up was discussed. Literally three days before the invasion, the sentiment was basically preparing for a hurricane or blizzard.)

While I think they'll be successful in tamping down flexible demand, the net result will still be higher-than-desired inflation. There are just too many things outside of their control.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

boogiehead wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Nah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
Actually a 0.5 hike with rates currently at 0.75 is much bigger than a 0.5 hike when rates are at 6%.

It's huge jump, percentage wise, and that does matter.

"Oh, we've been borrowing at 6%, now we have to borrow at 6.5%... Meh..."

"Oh, we've been borrowing at 0.75%... holy cow, a 0.5 jump? our interest costs just went up 66%!"
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

exodusNH wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 pm
boogiehead wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Nah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
As Kevin notes, the annualized number is not as dire as the year-over-year, which still has the COVID-induced lower demand still being factored in.

Jacking the funds rate to 10% is not the answer. (Well, it would be an answer, but one with terrible consequences.) While you can affect demand inflation (maybe, jury's out on that), there's a base-level of supply that cannot be avoided. E.g., oil. Sure, you might be able to get people to postpone non-essential travel, but you're not going to affect how much gas I'm going to use driving to work and the grocery store. I can only lower the thermostat that runs my oil furnace by a finite amount. While you can lower demand for second+ homes, the truth is that the US is millions of housing units short due to the GFC.

Not to mention the supply disruptions due to an unexpected war in Europe. (I can confidently say unexpected because my company was working with a Ukrainian government agency. The Monday before the invasion, our execs were talking to their execs, and the topic of Russia's build up was discussed. Literally three days before the invasion, the sentiment was basically preparing for a hurricane or blizzard.)

While I think they'll be successful in tamping down flexible demand, the net result will still be higher-than-desired inflation. There are just too many things outside of their control.
In the 70s, too, inflation was due in part to things outside the Fed's control. The main lesson from the 70s is to not allow higher inflation expectations to get entrenched. I believe they will do everything in their power to get it down to their 2% goal.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 4:16 pm
exodusNH wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 pm
boogiehead wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:17 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:00 pm Think we already hit the bottom? I was looking to drop a large load of dry powder this week... Whoops.
Nah... from what I gather nothing has changed fundamentally yet in which we can sustain a bull rally. If anything, I think Powell today basically is low key hinting without trying to spook the market that a larger hike may come as he repeatedly states that his #1 goal is to squash inflation. If he is true to his words his measly .5 basis hike every few months is not going to make a difference when fund rate is still only .75, while inflation is running 8%+ and oil prices are still going up as we speak.
As Kevin notes, the annualized number is not as dire as the year-over-year, which still has the COVID-induced lower demand still being factored in.

Jacking the funds rate to 10% is not the answer. (Well, it would be an answer, but one with terrible consequences.) While you can affect demand inflation (maybe, jury's out on that), there's a base-level of supply that cannot be avoided. E.g., oil. Sure, you might be able to get people to postpone non-essential travel, but you're not going to affect how much gas I'm going to use driving to work and the grocery store. I can only lower the thermostat that runs my oil furnace by a finite amount. While you can lower demand for second+ homes, the truth is that the US is millions of housing units short due to the GFC.

Not to mention the supply disruptions due to an unexpected war in Europe. (I can confidently say unexpected because my company was working with a Ukrainian government agency. The Monday before the invasion, our execs were talking to their execs, and the topic of Russia's build up was discussed. Literally three days before the invasion, the sentiment was basically preparing for a hurricane or blizzard.)

While I think they'll be successful in tamping down flexible demand, the net result will still be higher-than-desired inflation. There are just too many things outside of their control.
The main lesson from the 70s is to not allow higher inflation expectations to get entrenched. I believe they will do everything in their power to get it down to their 2% goal.
There is some hypotheses that indicate what we attribute to the Fed's deftness in controlling inflation over the last 40 years was really the effect of globalization driving prices down, in particular cheap labor in China. Even ignoring the changes everyone is contemplating supply chains due to COVID and Ukraine, the demographics of China simply won't support this in the future.

Unfortunately, this is getting off topic, other than to say that higher than desired inflation is here to stay, with all the bad effects that come with it. I'm not suggesting 8% is the new norm, but that getting to 2% is going to be extraordinary difficult. Had Ukraine not happened and had we, collectively, managed to control COVID, that would be a different story.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Flyer24 »

Stay on topic about the stock market. The thread is getting derailed about inflation.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Kevin M »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:35 pm
Kevin M wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:26 pm Inflation is not "running 8%+"; that's a year over year number. The monthly change in seasonally adjusted CPI for April was 0.33%, which is an annualized rate of 4.06%.
I'm not sure why you keep disagreeing with this. Inflation 8% YoY is what we mean when we say it is running 8%+.

Just because it's common to use present tense when past tense is accurate, it doesn't mean that it's correct. If you mean inflation was 8.22% for the year ending in April, then just say so.

YoY inflation is backward looking. Monthly inflation also is backward looking, but less so. What's more relevant to decision making are breakeven inflation rates, which are less than 3% for maturities about five years and longer.

Image
Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:35 pm Monthly changes are too noisy, some months say 15% some months say 4.06%.
I don't know.

Image

Clearly looks like a change in trend line, and I don't see anything similar for April last year.

Kevin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drg02b »

And now back to our regularly scheduling programming...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

drg02b wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:27 am And now back to our regularly scheduling programming...
We'll see, I have a prediction of a new low forming this week. So far looks like I'm wrong, but today is starting to look red..
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

Kevin M wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 4:57 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:35 pm
Kevin M wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:26 pm Inflation is not "running 8%+"; that's a year over year number. The monthly change in seasonally adjusted CPI for April was 0.33%, which is an annualized rate of 4.06%.
I'm not sure why you keep disagreeing with this. Inflation 8% YoY is what we mean when we say it is running 8%+.

Just because it's common to use present tense when past tense is accurate, it doesn't mean that it's correct. If you mean inflation was 8.22% for the year ending in April, then just say so.

YoY inflation is backward looking. Monthly inflation also is backward looking, but less so. What's more relevant to decision making are breakeven inflation rates, which are less than 3% for maturities about five years and longer.

Image
Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 2:35 pm Monthly changes are too noisy, some months say 15% some months say 4.06%.
I don't know.

Image

Clearly looks like a change in trend line, and I don't see anything similar for April last year.

Kevin
If you expand the range on CPI, today's rate of change sure looks frightening to me.

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

corn18 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:10 am
If you expand the range on CPI, today's rate of change sure looks frightening to me.

Image
Why?
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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:13 am
corn18 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:10 am
If you expand the range on CPI, today's rate of change sure looks frightening to me.

Image
Why?
Because it has never risen that fast in such a short time. What do you think?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

Need a log scale.
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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

AlphaLess wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:16 am Need a log scale.
Good call. Looks less frightening today. But, geesh, the late 70's and early 80's look miserable.

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Californiastate »

JoMoney wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:30 am
drg02b wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:27 am And now back to our regularly scheduling programming...
We'll see, I have a prediction of a new low forming this week. So far looks like I'm wrong, but today is starting to look red..
A reversal today would verify your prediction. The day is young.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by case_of_ennui »

Because this isn't the U.S. Inflation thread I'll just mention that U.S stocks are down today. Still above where we opened yesterday but there's more time to fall. This week is pay week so whichever way it wants to move is OK.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

case_of_ennui wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:23 am Because this isn't the U.S. Inflation thread I'll just mention that U.S stocks are down today. Still above where we opened yesterday but there's more time to fall. This week is pay week so whichever way it wants to move is OK.
I guess inflation doesn't impact stock prices?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

corn18 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:13 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:13 am
corn18 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:10 am
If you expand the range on CPI, today's rate of change sure looks frightening to me.

Image
Why?
Because it has never risen that fast in such a short time. What do you think?
I am not convinced as some (most) that it is going to be persistent. I am more concerned about the continued, persistent exodus of Boomers and older Gen Xers from the workforce.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:

Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by case_of_ennui »

corn18 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:28 am
case_of_ennui wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:23 am Because this isn't the U.S. Inflation thread I'll just mention that U.S stocks are down today. Still above where we opened yesterday but there's more time to fall. This week is pay week so whichever way it wants to move is OK.
I guess inflation doesn't impact stock prices?
Flyer24 wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 4:55 pm Stay on topic about the stock market. The thread is getting derailed about inflation.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

strummer6969 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:38 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 3:17 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pm
Tom_T wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pm
atdharris wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 2:41 pm

Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
I don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
No one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.
"No one knows anything" but Warren Buffett is buying.

"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) turned into an active buyer of stocks during the volatile first quarter, especially in the quarter's final six weeks, after a long stretch of muted purchases.

Investors already know that Buffett's Berkshire doubled down on Chevron (CVX) in Q1 and has been snapping up Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with oil prices near highs. The conglomerate also added to top holding Apple (AAPL) during the stock's Q1 sell-off, and bought more shares of Activision Blizzard (ATVI)."

https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ay-q1-13f/

The dude dropped $41B in net stock buys against $7B in net sales.

There will be some oversold bargains out there with good fundamentals if you are willing to buy into individual companies. I can see why he gambled on more ATVI given the $95 offer...we'll know soonish if it closes. AAPL seems less of a gamble.
Well Elon Musk says we'll probably be in a recession lasting up to 18 months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

One of these two men will be wrong.
Eh, one, both or neither. Buffett makes individual stock plays so the market/economy can be going up, down or sideways and his investments might move with or against it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:

Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
This has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:

Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
This has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.
This seems like an unprecedented move down in retail. Has anything like this happened before? I'm assuming the last time a hit like this occurred in retail might have been 1987?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Buying SQQQ like I wanted to yesterday would've been a great move. We'll probably head back to 52 week lows now that we had a couple of big up days on yesterday and on Friday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:

Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
This has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.

When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.

Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by trirunner »

elderwise wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 am
atdharris wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:

Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
This has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.

When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.

Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
You mean stagflation (inflation + recession)
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Youngblood
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Youngblood »

trirunner wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:18 am
elderwise wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 am
atdharris wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:

Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
This has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.

When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.

Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
You mean stagflation (inflation + recession)
+1 Stagflation
"I made my money by selling too soon." | Bernard M. Baruch
mtmingus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mtmingus »

Darling Costco down 12%.
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Chief_Engineer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Chief_Engineer »

elderwise wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 am When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.

Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
My Google news feed was filled with headlines like "Target CEO sees shift in consumer spending" and "Demand for mortgages fall 12%"

Not good indicators I guess.

If we do have a recession soon, or have already entered one, would this be a case of the yield curve inversion failing to predict a recession? Interesting if so.
trirunner
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by trirunner »

Chief_Engineer wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:24 am
elderwise wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 am When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.

Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
My Google news feed was filled with headlines like "Target CEO sees shift in consumer spending" and "Demand for mortgages fall 12%"

Not good indicators I guess.

If we do have a recession soon, or have already entered one, would this be a case of the yield curve inversion failing to predict a recession? Interesting if so.
there is no yield curve inversion for stagflation.
dvvader
Posts: 275
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dvvader »

elderwise wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 am
atdharris wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:46 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:32 am Major retailers suffering big losses so far this week:

Target -25%
Walmart -15%
Dollar Tree -17%
Big Lots -13%
BJ's -14%
Dicks's -10%
Kohl's -10%
This has been such a wild year. After watching the mega tech firms sell off, you see companies like Target and Walmart selloff 15-25% in one day.

When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.

Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
The current accepted definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP, which feels like a lock at this point. So it's not a matter of if, but how bad.
Bogleheads® emphasize regular saving, broad diversification, and sticking to one's investment plan regardless of market conditions.
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Chief_Engineer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Chief_Engineer »

trirunner wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:26 am
Chief_Engineer wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:24 am
elderwise wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:13 am When techs tank, when retailer stocks tank and gas prices shoot.

Maybe we really are..indeed..heading into a recession soon.
My Google news feed was filled with headlines like "Target CEO sees shift in consumer spending" and "Demand for mortgages fall 12%"

Not good indicators I guess.

If we do have a recession soon, or have already entered one, would this be a case of the yield curve inversion failing to predict a recession? Interesting if so.
there is no yield curve inversion for stagflation.
It "worked" in the 70s when we last saw stagflation.
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

Annnnd...this week we learn that the value darlings can't keep up with inflation. There aren't too many places left to hide in the market.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

strummer6969 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:42 am Annnnd...this week we learn that the value darlings can't keep up with inflation. There aren't too many places left to hide in the market.
It was going to happen eventually. No real reason KO, PG, CLX, SHW, etc should be trading at 25-40x earnings.
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:46 am
strummer6969 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:42 am Annnnd...this week we learn that the value darlings can't keep up with inflation. There aren't too many places left to hide in the market.
It was going to happen eventually. No real reason KO, PG, CLX, SHW, etc should be trading at 25-40x earnings.
Looks like investors really took to those articles about buying value and selling growth.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

RBD confirmed for the S&P.
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