Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
BoggledHead2
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by BoggledHead2 »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:47 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:44 am

I do see rates continuing to decline (Fed will use this trick first to try and save markets) ...

May be stupid question: But If yields go down / capital value increases ... is that a no-lose/WinWij scenario for treasuries?
I don't know what you mean when you say 'no-lose'.

Long Treasury funds can be incredibly volatile, having swings of +/- 20-30% during extreme markets.
Sorry, fully admit my knowledge of bonds is minimal (I own none, 20+ year horizon)

I assume long treasury funds have an inverse relation to markets (down when stocks up, up when stocks down?)

Is this essentially their appeal? Diversification + downturn protection?

Are there conditions (economic, political, etc.) where markets and treasuries would rise/fall together?
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watchnerd
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by watchnerd »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:50 am

Sorry, fully admit my knowledge of bonds is minimal (I own none, 20+ year horizon)

I assume long treasury funds have an inverse relation to markets (down when stocks up, up when stocks down?)

Is this essentially their appeal? Diversification + downturn protection?

Are there conditions (economic, political, etc.) where markets and treasuries would rise/fall together?
1. Yes, often, long Treasuries have an inverse relationship to stocks. That's one of their major appeals.

2. But not always, and sometimes they decline together. They declined together in 2018.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Chuck
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Chuck »

ukbogler wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:28 am I like this thread. All the posters going "I'm doing nothing, just as my plan dictates" are actually saying "I'm doing nothing because there's nothing I can do"
I have not even hit any rebalance bands, just like I didn't in October 2019 when stocks were at the same level.
LiterallyIronic
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by LiterallyIronic »

DesertDiva wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:38 pm
StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Maybe the markets will go lower. Maybe we've already hit the bottom. Either way, sticking to an IPS eliminates market timing and the regret that often follows.
Am I the only one too lazy to write an IPS? Too lazy to follow the stock market, too lazy to market time, too lazy to rebalance, etc. I'll just keep letting my automated 401k and IRAs do their thing, buying four times per month on specified days, and I'll chill on the couch watching a movie or something.
BoggledHead2
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Chuck wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:15 am
ukbogler wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:28 am I like this thread. All the posters going "I'm doing nothing, just as my plan dictates" are actually saying "I'm doing nothing because there's nothing I can do"
I have not even hit any rebalance bands, just like I didn't in October 2019 when stocks were at the same level.
All you “can do” is:

1. Irrationally freak out and panic sell to every headline
2. Rebalance in accordance with target asset allocation
3. Do nothing, until #2 becomes applicable.

It’s become very clear to my that an honest/accurate asset allocation is paramount to investing ... when you have an AA you can live with, all you do is let the market decide where your new money goes and move on with life.

It’s so simple when you can turn off the noise (or use the noise to buy up cheaper shares)
BoggledHead2
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by BoggledHead2 »

LiterallyIronic wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:22 am
DesertDiva wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:38 pm
StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Maybe the markets will go lower. Maybe we've already hit the bottom. Either way, sticking to an IPS eliminates market timing and the regret that often follows.
Am I the only one too lazy to write an IPS? Too lazy to follow the stock market, too lazy to market time, too lazy to rebalance, etc. I'll just keep letting my automated 401k and IRAs do their thing, buying four times per month on specified days, and I'll chill on the couch watching a movie or something.
Only reason I even pay attention is when I have some extra money and need to check if the headline hysteria equates to a buying opportunity

Other than that ... Auto/smooth sailing and see ya in 20 years
MotoTrojan
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by MotoTrojan »

BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:26 am
LiterallyIronic wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:22 am
DesertDiva wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:38 pm
StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Maybe the markets will go lower. Maybe we've already hit the bottom. Either way, sticking to an IPS eliminates market timing and the regret that often follows.
Am I the only one too lazy to write an IPS? Too lazy to follow the stock market, too lazy to market time, too lazy to rebalance, etc. I'll just keep letting my automated 401k and IRAs do their thing, buying four times per month on specified days, and I'll chill on the couch watching a movie or something.
Only reason I even pay attention is when I have some extra money and need to check if the headline hysteria equates to a buying opportunity

Other than that ... Auto/smooth sailing and see ya in 20 years
Why not just invest that extra money no matter the headlines?
rascott
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by rascott »

I have a large buy going in at close today, so hopeful we remain deep in the red!
carminered2019
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by carminered2019 »

Will close the same as last Friday and this might be the bottom. I got 235k in last Friday and still a lot of ammo. No where to hide with cash
BoggledHead2
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by BoggledHead2 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:34 am
BoggledHead2 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:26 am
LiterallyIronic wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:22 am
DesertDiva wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:38 pm
StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
Maybe the markets will go lower. Maybe we've already hit the bottom. Either way, sticking to an IPS eliminates market timing and the regret that often follows.
Am I the only one too lazy to write an IPS? Too lazy to follow the stock market, too lazy to market time, too lazy to rebalance, etc. I'll just keep letting my automated 401k and IRAs do their thing, buying four times per month on specified days, and I'll chill on the couch watching a movie or something.
Only reason I even pay attention is when I have some extra money and need to check if the headline hysteria equates to a buying opportunity

Other than that ... Auto/smooth sailing and see ya in 20 years
Why not just invest that extra money no matter the headlines?
Sorry if unclear, all I meant was use the headlines to tap into my emergency fund (I keep min 6 months expenses saved) at times

I make monthly auto contributions regardless.

Max 401K, Max ROTH in January, use the headlines to pounce in my taxable account and/or rebalance as needed

Time to buy = Oversized emergency fund, check allocation, add to what’s needed

Also time to buy = Any instance shares are available lower than my average cost basis

Short version: Automated investing with even more added when the headlines/markets say so.

Worst case scenario: I have more cheaper shares to buy
Best case scenario: Shares I already have hit new highs

Works for me
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Ice-9
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Ice-9 »

I don't have a large amount of unallocated cash handy, but what little I have I'm throwing in the market.

I haven't yet hit my rebalancing bands (per Swedroe 5/25 rule), so I'm not selling bonds to buy stocks at this point.
Caduceus
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Caduceus »

vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:39 am Will close the same as last Friday and this might be the bottom. I got 235k in last Friday and still a lot of ammo. No where to hide with cash
That takes real guts. I bought a big chunk of Wells Fargo at $38.75 and it's now sitting at $37 within the span of one day. I bought some XOM at $49 and it's gone to $48 in a few hours. It's like my money is evaporating :P

Seriously, though, it is pretty fun. I do wish I hadn't allocated my cash as early as I did - I've used up 60% of my spare cash now and only have 40% to go. The volatility is so crazy right now that even my out of the money options that I sold a day before expiration are getting exercised! People are really scared.
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JAZZISCOOL
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

Famed real estate investor "the grave dancer" Sam Zell is buying:

Segment:

March 6, 2020

Sam Zell Is Buying the Dips

"Undeterred by the wild stock market, he is venturing into the battered energy sector.

Well, somebody isn’t afraid to buy the dips. That would be Sam Zell, nicknamed “the Grave Dancer,” who made his fortune buying distressed assets, mostly in real estate.

But now, billionaire financier Zell told CNBC that he is buying falling stocks, as the coronavirus-spooked market tumbles. Although he was coy about the specifics of his purchasing, he indicated he is moving in on the most beaten-up stock sector of all: energy. Plus, he has been buying energy company bonds and, ever the real estate guy, existing drilling sites.

“We’ve been buying some stuff that we thought was ridiculously low,” he said. “But not a lot.”

Energy stocks have fallen more than 30% this year amid plunging oil and natural gas prices. This has prompted the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to try to cut production in a bid to bolster prices."

https://www.ai-cio.com/news/sam-zell-bu ... n=CIOAlert
carminered2019
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by carminered2019 »

I hate to go back to individual stocks after playing with it for 20 years and WFC made me a lot of $$ but have been thinking about WFC strictly for dividend yield. No where to hide cash !!!!!!!!!!!!
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Halicar
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Halicar »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:31 pm Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
But what if others are fearful/greedy because they too are following Buffett's advice? It gets a little recursive and paradoxical...
Caduceus
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by Caduceus »

vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:43 am I hate to go back to individual stocks after playing with it for 20 years and WFC made me a lot of $$ but have been thinking about WFC strictly for dividend yield. No where to hide cash !!!!!!!!!!!!
Wells Fargo has gone nowhere for a very long time, so if it's made you a lot of money you must have bought maybe near the financial crisis of 2008-2009? It's a great company and very different from other banks - something I didn't know until reading their annual reports.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by EnjoyIt »

vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:43 am I hate to go back to individual stocks after playing with it for 20 years and WFC made me a lot of $$ but have been thinking about WFC strictly for dividend yield. No where to hide cash !!!!!!!!!!!!
Buying stocks in a bank is not hiding cash. Hiding cash is putting it under your mattress.

The real question is what is your goal for the cash? Here is a hint. Cash is not held for returns. Following bogleheads philosophy cash is also not held as "dry powder." So why do you hold cash? is it for an emergency fund or for a purchase that will happen in the next few months/years? Well then keep it as cash, CDs, money market accounts, or short term treasuries.

Don't hind your money.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
carminered2019
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by carminered2019 »

Caduceus wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:01 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:43 am I hate to go back to individual stocks after playing with it for 20 years and WFC made me a lot of $$ but have been thinking about WFC strictly for dividend yield. No where to hide cash !!!!!!!!!!!!
Wells Fargo has gone nowhere for a very long time, so if it's made you a lot of money you must have bought maybe near the financial crisis of 2008-2009? It's a great company and very different from other banks - something I didn't know until reading their annual reports.
yes, 100k@ $18/share and sold at $52 one year ago plus 38 other stocks to get into index funds. Took advantage of the fear back then.
BoggledHead2
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by BoggledHead2 »

Rule #1

Pick an asset allocation that truly meets your risk tolerance

Rule #2

Invest in accordance with that allocation

#3

Revisit rules 1-2.

If you did 1-2 correctly, you have nothing else to think about. If you’re feeling anxious/panic #1 isn’t appropriate.

#2 allows you to stay invested - when it’s down, you buy more, when it’s up, less shares but congrats your old shares are up

It is this simple
EnjoyIt
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by EnjoyIt »

vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:07 pm
Caduceus wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:01 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:43 am I hate to go back to individual stocks after playing with it for 20 years and WFC made me a lot of $$ but have been thinking about WFC strictly for dividend yield. No where to hide cash !!!!!!!!!!!!
Wells Fargo has gone nowhere for a very long time, so if it's made you a lot of money you must have bought maybe near the financial crisis of 2008-2009? It's a great company and very different from other banks - something I didn't know until reading their annual reports.
yes, 100k@ $18/share and sold at $52 one year ago to get into index funds. Took advantage of the fear back then.
I ran WFC and compared it to Vanguard Total Stock including dividend reinvestment from Jan 2009 till today. It appears the two followed each other pretty closely with some ups and downs over the years. Well's Fargo started to fall short in 2018. Looks like you would have done equally well just owning Total Stock if you got out in 2018. I assume you know this being a bogleheads that owning total stock in general is a much better proposition.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
chicagoan23
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by chicagoan23 »

StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

...so sayeth Mike Tyson.

For two weeks stock investors have been getting punched. Hard for some to stick with the plan, and it will get harder as we keep getting punched. But times like this are why you have a plan in the first place.

I am now holding steady with my asset allocation which is about 71/17/12. If we see another 20% drop in equities from here (~2,360 for the S&P) I will shift to roughly 80/15/5. Another 20% from there (~1,880 for the S&P; for a total of a 45% decline from the highs) then I'm pretty much all in. I hope we don't get there.
"The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer" | | https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
carminered2019
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by carminered2019 »

EnjoyIt wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:20 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:07 pm
Caduceus wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:01 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:43 am I hate to go back to individual stocks after playing with it for 20 years and WFC made me a lot of $$ but have been thinking about WFC strictly for dividend yield. No where to hide cash !!!!!!!!!!!!
Wells Fargo has gone nowhere for a very long time, so if it's made you a lot of money you must have bought maybe near the financial crisis of 2008-2009? It's a great company and very different from other banks - something I didn't know until reading their annual reports.
yes, 100k@ $18/share and sold at $52 one year ago to get into index funds. Took advantage of the fear back then.
I ran WFC and compared it to Vanguard Total Stock including dividend reinvestment from Jan 2009 till today. It appears the two followed each other pretty closely with some ups and downs over the years. Well's Fargo started to fall short in 2018. Looks like you would have done equally well just owning Total Stock if you got out in 2018. I assume you know this being a bogleheads that owning total stock in general is a much better proposition.
Correct, that's why I sold 39+ individual stocks then got into US total market and life is much better since.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by EnjoyIt »

vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:27 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:20 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:07 pm
Caduceus wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:01 pm
vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:43 am I hate to go back to individual stocks after playing with it for 20 years and WFC made me a lot of $$ but have been thinking about WFC strictly for dividend yield. No where to hide cash !!!!!!!!!!!!
Wells Fargo has gone nowhere for a very long time, so if it's made you a lot of money you must have bought maybe near the financial crisis of 2008-2009? It's a great company and very different from other banks - something I didn't know until reading their annual reports.
yes, 100k@ $18/share and sold at $52 one year ago to get into index funds. Took advantage of the fear back then.
I ran WFC and compared it to Vanguard Total Stock including dividend reinvestment from Jan 2009 till today. It appears the two followed each other pretty closely with some ups and downs over the years. Well's Fargo started to fall short in 2018. Looks like you would have done equally well just owning Total Stock if you got out in 2018. I assume you know this being a bogleheads that owning total stock in general is a much better proposition.
Correct, that's why I sold 39+ individual stocks then got into US total market and life is much better since.
Right?

It is so easy to just own the market and not worry about buying and selling. No more watching market news. No more research. No more worrying about earnings reports. Just pick an AA that works, create rebalancing bands and do other more fruitful things in your life.

Becoming a Bogleheads was one of the best decisions I have made in my life.

I recently helped my parents covert to a two fund portfolio. They also discuss how much easier and better this strategy is.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
mickroark
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by mickroark »

Also, never try to catch a falling knife. You might get hurt real bad. :moneybag
carminered2019
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by carminered2019 »

mickroark wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:42 pm Also, never try to catch a falling knife. You might get hurt real bad. :moneybag
so far my crystal ball is 100% correct, I will have more $$$ 15 years from now even if I caught a fallen knife.
minimalistmarc
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by minimalistmarc »

vipertom1970 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:47 pm
mickroark wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:42 pm Also, never try to catch a falling knife. You might get hurt real bad. :moneybag
so far my crystal ball is 100% correct, I will have more $$$ 15 years from now even if I caught a fallen knife.

Falling knives are likely to bounce very high over that time frame :)
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David Jay
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by David Jay »

Who’s this Warren guy? What’s his IPS?
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EddyB
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by EddyB »

David Jay wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:02 pm Who’s this Warren guy? What’s his IPS?
I thought that was his IPS---"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." It's concise.
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David Jay
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by David Jay »

EddyB wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:04 pm
David Jay wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:02 pm Who’s this Warren guy? What’s his IPS?
I thought that was his IPS---"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." It's concise.
Concise - yes. Actionable? Not so much...
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
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StormShadow
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Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

Post by StormShadow »

chicagoan23 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:24 pm
StormShadow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:31 pm ... so sayeth Warren Buffett.

What is everybody waiting for?

Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified!
"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

...so sayeth Mike Tyson.

For two weeks stock investors have been getting punched. Hard for some to stick with the plan, and it will get harder as we keep getting punched. But times like this are why you have a plan in the first place.

I am now holding steady with my asset allocation which is about 71/17/12. If we see another 20% drop in equities from here (~2,360 for the S&P) I will shift to roughly 80/15/5. Another 20% from there (~1,880 for the S&P; for a total of a 45% decline from the highs) then I'm pretty much all in. I hope we don't get there.
"I want to eat his children."
...also sayeth Iron Mike. :mrgreen:

I doubt it'll go down that low, but who knows.

I'm going to wait for the volatility to settle down somewhat before throwing additional cash (Gah! I should have waited one week before contributing my roth IRA!). Right now, I'm still DCA through my employer retirement plan.
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