No guts to buy today!
No guts to buy today!
I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.
Erwin
Re: No guts to buy today!
What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
“It’s the curse of old men to realize that in the end we control nothing." "Homeland" episode, "Gerontion"
Re: No guts to buy today!
Stop following the market.
- Tim
- Tim
Re: No guts to buy today!
Were you supposed to buy today? Then....
The majority of the time over your 30 years you probably could have looked back a year prior from whatever day and thought what a fool you were to not buy more a year ago. Time in and not timing, and all...
Is today even a major equity drop? I guess it depends for each of us.
The majority of the time over your 30 years you probably could have looked back a year prior from whatever day and thought what a fool you were to not buy more a year ago. Time in and not timing, and all...
Is today even a major equity drop? I guess it depends for each of us.
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Re: No guts to buy today!
I bought a few weeks ago to bring my equity exposure back in line.
It's still close enough to that goal as per my IPS, so no actions to take at this point
It's still close enough to that goal as per my IPS, so no actions to take at this point
"The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists" - Benjamin Graham
Re: No guts to buy today!
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Erwin
Re: No guts to buy today!
As of Friday I was down 3.99% and my equity/fixed ratio was off by 1%. So it will be a while until I have to do anything. In my experience following my plan has always turned out to be more profitable than trying to "judge" where the market is at any point in time. I'll take humble arithmetic over trying to read the tea leaves any day.
Steve |
Semper Fi
Re: No guts to buy today!
Is that your answer to their question, your IPS says to use your judgement on days like this? Doesn't sound like that works too well for you most of the time.mpt follower wrote:Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
It was not a dumb question by dumbbunny.
Re: No guts to buy today!
You absolutely right, but research has shown that valuations at purchase time govern long term profits. And although I am not and have never been a market timer, at times I believe that one can take advantage of the fact that the market behaves in a rational manner in the long term and emotionally in the short term.Sbashore wrote:As of Friday I was down 3.99% and my equity/fixed ratio was off by 1%. So it will be a while until I have to do anything. In my experience following my plan has always turned out to be more profitable than trying to "judge" where the market is at any point in time. I'll take humble arithmetic over trying to read the tea leaves any day.
In any rate, I am retired and i do not have the guts to buy, and this has nothing to do with my IPS.
Erwin
Re: No guts to buy today!
My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactusdumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
Re: No guts to buy today!
I'm continuing to add to my equity exposure as the year wears on. Its been grinding for industrials which have been my main focus so far. It hurts to see your purchases continue to fall in price. I think my experience with the 2008 / 2009 decline has taught me plenty of valuable lessons about exposure, liquidity and leverage. The most difficult thing to do is to proceed at a calculated, measured pace. Its easy to see many blue chip industrial companies down 25-30% and want to push in the chips, make a big bet all at once. I wont do that. That said I'm also a lot younger than you and time is on my side, If I'm really wrong, it will hopefully be just poor timing, but not absolute negative returns. After all, if my truly safe (credit wise) alternative is treasury bonds the long run return (nominal basis) will be the coupon at these prices less any premium paid. If it really ends up being an extended depression this time we have bigger problems.
Re: No guts to buy today!
it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.Twins Fan wrote:Is that your answer to their question, your IPS says to use your judgement on days like this? Doesn't sound like that works too well for you most of the time.mpt follower wrote:Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
It was not a dumb question by dumbbunny.
Erwin
Re: No guts to buy today!
So, you're just venting then?mpt follower wrote:In any rate, I am retired and i do not have the guts to buy, and this has nothing to do with my IPS.
Just call it Monday and move on.
Re: No guts to buy today!
Time to burn this heretic at the stake!mpt follower wrote:Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
I do agree the whole "blindly follow your IPS" thing seems a bit overdone. If I'm the one who wrote my IPS, but now have more/different information than when I wrote it, should I not incorporate that information into my thinking? I suppose I could scribble an amendment onto my IPS to be in compliance with the doctrine.
Semper Augustus
Re: No guts to buy today!
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Last edited by Lynette on Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: No guts to buy today!
I don't think anyone means that an IPS should be locked in from day one and should NEVER change. Of course changes can be made to it, but it probably shouldn't be a regular thing.
The IPS is something to refer to when one starts talking about guts, emotions, and daily movements.
Does the IPS say anything about what to do on days the market drops by 2%? If not, maybe nothing should be done.
The IPS is something to refer to when one starts talking about guts, emotions, and daily movements.
Does the IPS say anything about what to do on days the market drops by 2%? If not, maybe nothing should be done.
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Re: No guts to buy today!
"Judgement" or "emotions"??mpt follower wrote:Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Re: No guts to buy today!
P/Egvsucavie03 wrote:"Judgement" or "emotions"??mpt follower wrote:Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Erwin
- SteelyEyed
- Posts: 389
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Re: No guts to buy today!
I bought today. I had a lot of cash available from my TLH sale on Friday.
Re: No guts to buy today!
It sounds like making it more mechanical would help your strategy, because emotions aren't helping.mpt follower wrote:My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
Re: No guts to buy today!
mpt follower,mpt follower wrote:
it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
Why not? The whole point of having an IPS is to take emotion out of those kind of decision.
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: No guts to buy today!
mpt follower wrote:I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.
What makes you think this is a major equity drop?
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Re: No guts to buy today!
Not following...mpt follower wrote:P/Egvsucavie03 wrote:"Judgement" or "emotions"??mpt follower wrote:Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Re: No guts to buy today!
It seems that I am being misunderstood. I have been at this game too long to get emotional about investing. There is zero emotions in my thoughts. I am retired and frankly for all practical purposes have already won the game.KlangFool wrote:mpt follower,mpt follower wrote:
it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
Why not? The whole point of having an IPS is to take emotion out of those kind of decision.
KlangFool
I am just looking at equity prices and asking myself whether they seem right.
Erwin
- Christine_NM
- Posts: 2796
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- Location: New Mexico
Re: No guts to buy today!
Excellent idea! That is a smart IPS you have. I will try to remember that. Thanks.Toons wrote: My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactus
ETA - in NM we fry up prickly pears and eat 'em.
16% cash 49% stock 35% bond. Retired, w/d rate 2.5%
Re: No guts to buy today!
What?!? Let me re-post your original post:mpt follower wrote:It seems that I am being misunderstood. I have been at this game too long to get emotional about investing. There is zero emotions in my thoughts.
mpt follower wrote:I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.
Re: No guts to buy today!
I had no problem buying today. I'll probably lose money, but so what?
Re: No guts to buy today!
Water it no more than once per week?Toons wrote:My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactusdumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Re: No guts to buy today!
If it must be touched, get someone else to do it?Toons wrote:My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactusdumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Re: No guts to buy today!
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Last edited by Lynette on Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: No guts to buy today!
At this point in my life (retired) it is pretty much mechanical. At least in the signals I get to buy or sell. It's based on - are my allocations out of whack according to my IPS> It's just an exercise in maintaining a given risk profile. I must admit to a little "non-mechanical" actions, like in 2008 when I got re-balancing signals, I'd go ahead and re-balance but only into a lower portion of my equity range instead of all the way to the target. Now days, all my decisions have already been made and thanks to the variables I can introduce via Excel, I have a nice degree of flexibility built into my IPS.KlangFool wrote:mpt follower,mpt follower wrote:
it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
Why not? The whole point of having an IPS is to take emotion out of those kind of decision.
KlangFool
Steve |
Semper Fi
Re: No guts to buy today!
Do you have guts today to sell? Bond fund ETFs are up about 0.5% at the moment. Bond funds rarely go up by 0.5% or more in a single day. I'm sure they will trade lower later on this month.
Re: No guts to buy today!
I bought in today. Got some shares in CBRL, PSX, BDX today. Hold long-term.
edit: Also, got some SBUX.
edit: Also, got some SBUX.
Last edited by cheesepep on Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: No guts to buy today!
I bought today, because my DH's Roth IRA contribution needed to be made and I figured it was a better day for it than last Friday. Who knows about tomorrow?
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Re: No guts to buy today!
I'm buying today. Money from another account I closed just came in last week and a 10% discount over January 1st prices seems nice to me. =)
Re: No guts to buy today!
I'm with you livesoft - and if it goes lower, keep on buying - and if it goes higher, keep on buying - until we reach nirvana. . .livesoft wrote:I had no problem buying today. I'll probably lose money, but so what?
"I would rather die with money, than live without it...." - Bogleheads member Ron |
|
A time to EVALUATE your jitters https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: No guts to buy today!
I wish I had your guts!livesoft wrote:Do you have guts today to sell? Bond fund ETFs are up about 0.5% at the moment. Bond funds rarely go up by 0.5% or more in a single day. I'm sure they will trade lower later on this month.
:beerCheers,
packet
First round’s on me.
Re: No guts to buy today!
I bought $20,000 of total stock market (on a 7-figure portfolio) today. I consider myself 90% Bogleheadian and 10% gambler. Works for me...
Re: No guts to buy today!
I didn't buy on Friday, so I threw in a little loose change today.
Re: No guts to buy today!
I feel like the problem is that "short term" has no meaningful time bounds.mpt follower wrote:You absolutely right, but research has shown that valuations at purchase time govern long term profits. And although I am not and have never been a market timer, at times I believe that one can take advantage of the fact that the market behaves in a rational manner in the long term and emotionally in the short term.
Suppose we have a completely fictionalized toy market that operates under the assumptions:
- The only parameters of the market are price and earnings.
- Earnings represent the true underlying value of the market.
- Earnings grow steadily every year, say, 7% per year.
- P/E fluctuates between 5 and 35 based purely on market sentiments, with an average value of 15.
- P/E is currently at/near 35 (the maximum possible value).
- P/E tends to change slowly relative to earnings.
Obviously it's less clear in reality, since none of those assumptions are actually true about the real markets we have. The point is just that the two observations "valuations at purchase time govern long term profits" and "the market behaves in a rational manner in the long term and emotionally in the short term" aren't enough to imply that you can do something clever to boost your expected returns. There needs to be something else at play to make the strategy work.
Last edited by xjz on Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: No guts to buy today!
If you've been at it for over 30 years then you are probably much closer to retirement than I am, or perhaps you are retired. So with that being said I cannot really relate to the emotions of someone so close to having to depend on investment income.mpt follower wrote:I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.
I try to make my investing as mechanical as possible, i.e. I try to eliminate emotions. I haven't bought anything of significance since around the beginning of January (I also haven't sold anything). But I am monitoring for rebalancing opportunities and if that event comes then I will sell bonds and buy stocks. I won't really have any new money to invest until next January. So what happens, happens. Perhaps there is a way for you to invest in a way that takes out many of the emotions?
Best of luck to you.
Re: No guts to buy today!
What on earth does keeping with your own personal investing plan have to do with a cult?mpt follower wrote:Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Did I miss something?
If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.
Re: No guts to buy today!
So, what kind of response were you looking for when you made your post?
You know what people are going to say:
1. Stick to your IPS.
2. I'm buying today.
3. Don't be emotional.
4. You are okay.
As you have said, you are retired and have won the game. So what if you don't buy today. Enjoy life and stop looking at the markets.
I needed to buy today due to a large inflow of cash, so I was happy to see that the markets were down today. Makes me feel better after seeing how much the markets are down this year when I went through my rebalancing spreadsheet this weekend.
You know what people are going to say:
1. Stick to your IPS.
2. I'm buying today.
3. Don't be emotional.
4. You are okay.
As you have said, you are retired and have won the game. So what if you don't buy today. Enjoy life and stop looking at the markets.
I needed to buy today due to a large inflow of cash, so I was happy to see that the markets were down today. Makes me feel better after seeing how much the markets are down this year when I went through my rebalancing spreadsheet this weekend.
52% TSM, 23% TISM, 24.5% TBM, 0.5% cash
- saltycaper
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Re: No guts to buy today!
Same here. Looks like a bunch of people dug some change out of their couch cushions in the last hour.blueblock wrote:I didn't buy on Friday, so I threw in a little loose change today.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?
Re: No guts to buy today!
Just out of idle curiosity, why do you think so?livesoft wrote:Do you have guts today to sell? Bond fund ETFs are up about 0.5% at the moment. Bond funds rarely go up by 0.5% or more in a single day. I'm sure they will trade lower later on this month.
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore
Re: No guts to buy today!
Because they always have in the past. A 0.5% one-day pop in something like BND is almost always back-filled I think.
Anyways, I sold all my bond funds in my Vanguard IRA today. I have to convert to a Roth anyways, so I'll move the cash and buy something later in the Roth.
Anyways, I sold all my bond funds in my Vanguard IRA today. I have to convert to a Roth anyways, so I'll move the cash and buy something later in the Roth.
Re: No guts to buy today!
Christine_NM wrote:Excellent idea! That is a smart IPS you have. I will try to remember that. Thanks.Toons wrote: My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactus
ETA - in NM we fry up prickly pears and eat 'em.
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
Re: No guts to buy today!
Using an IPS is using one's judgment. It is based on what is right for that investor, as determined by that investor, and used as a reminder to stay the course when the market is down or when the investor is tempted to make a wrong move. It is all about individual judgment.mpt follower wrote:Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
A "cult"??
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
- Fat-Tailed Contagion
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Re: No guts to buy today!
It seems to me that you have to look at valuations of both the stock and bond markets as suggested by Ben Graham.
Using his methodology tends to make a lot of sense to me and is a good way of avoiding equity market speculative manias.
Just my .02
Using his methodology tends to make a lot of sense to me and is a good way of avoiding equity market speculative manias.
Just my .02
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” |
― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor (75/25 - 50/50 - 25/75)
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Re: No guts to buy today!
IBook decided today to download and install updates at 3:45pm. ET
Couldn't get to the tablet intime (low battery and couldn't find the charge cord)
Some of my utilities are near 52week highs.
Yet the utility indexes took a dive. I am over diversified here.
YMMV
Couldn't get to the tablet intime (low battery and couldn't find the charge cord)
Some of my utilities are near 52week highs.
Yet the utility indexes took a dive. I am over diversified here.
YMMV
Rev012718; 4 Incm stream buckets: SS+pension; dfr'd GLWB VA & FI anntys, by time & $$ laddered; Discretionary; Rentals. LTCi. Own, not asset. Tax TBT%. Early SS. FundRatio (FR) >1.1 67/70yo