No guts to buy today!

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Erwin
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No guts to buy today!

Post by Erwin » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:30 pm

I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.
Erwin

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dumbbunny
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by dumbbunny » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:39 pm

What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
“It’s the curse of old men to realize that in the end we control nothing." "Homeland" episode, "Gerontion"

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timboktoo
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by timboktoo » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:42 pm

Stop following the market.

- Tim

Twins Fan
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Twins Fan » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:42 pm

Were you supposed to buy today? Then.... :wink:

The majority of the time over your 30 years you probably could have looked back a year prior from whatever day and thought what a fool you were to not buy more a year ago. Time in and not timing, and all...

Is today even a major equity drop? I guess it depends for each of us.

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by herpfinance » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:44 pm

I bought a few weeks ago to bring my equity exposure back in line.

It's still close enough to that goal as per my IPS, so no actions to take at this point :)
"The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists" - Benjamin Graham

Erwin
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Erwin » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:48 pm

dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
Erwin

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Sbashore
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Sbashore » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:55 pm

As of Friday I was down 3.99% and my equity/fixed ratio was off by 1%. So it will be a while until I have to do anything. In my experience following my plan has always turned out to be more profitable than trying to "judge" where the market is at any point in time. I'll take humble arithmetic over trying to read the tea leaves any day.
Steve | Semper Fi

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Twins Fan » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:04 pm

mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
Is that your answer to their question, your IPS says to use your judgement on days like this? Doesn't sound like that works too well for you most of the time. :wink: :happy

It was not a dumb question by dumbbunny.

Erwin
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Erwin » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:05 pm

Sbashore wrote:As of Friday I was down 3.99% and my equity/fixed ratio was off by 1%. So it will be a while until I have to do anything. In my experience following my plan has always turned out to be more profitable than trying to "judge" where the market is at any point in time. I'll take humble arithmetic over trying to read the tea leaves any day.
You absolutely right, but research has shown that valuations at purchase time govern long term profits. And although I am not and have never been a market timer, at times I believe that one can take advantage of the fact that the market behaves in a rational manner in the long term and emotionally in the short term.
In any rate, I am retired and i do not have the guts to buy, and this has nothing to do with my IPS.
Erwin

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Toons
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Toons » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:06 pm

dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactus :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

Snowjob
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Snowjob » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:11 pm

I'm continuing to add to my equity exposure as the year wears on. Its been grinding for industrials which have been my main focus so far. It hurts to see your purchases continue to fall in price. I think my experience with the 2008 / 2009 decline has taught me plenty of valuable lessons about exposure, liquidity and leverage. The most difficult thing to do is to proceed at a calculated, measured pace. Its easy to see many blue chip industrial companies down 25-30% and want to push in the chips, make a big bet all at once. I wont do that. That said I'm also a lot younger than you and time is on my side, If I'm really wrong, it will hopefully be just poor timing, but not absolute negative returns. After all, if my truly safe (credit wise) alternative is treasury bonds the long run return (nominal basis) will be the coupon at these prices less any premium paid. If it really ends up being an extended depression this time we have bigger problems.

Erwin
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Erwin » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:12 pm

Twins Fan wrote:
mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
Is that your answer to their question, your IPS says to use your judgement on days like this? Doesn't sound like that works too well for you most of the time. :wink: :happy

It was not a dumb question by dumbbunny.
it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
Erwin

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Twins Fan » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:17 pm

mpt follower wrote:In any rate, I am retired and i do not have the guts to buy, and this has nothing to do with my IPS.
So, you're just venting then? :happy :beer

Just call it Monday and move on.

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Teague » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:17 pm

mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
Time to burn this heretic at the stake! :wink:

I do agree the whole "blindly follow your IPS" thing seems a bit overdone. If I'm the one who wrote my IPS, but now have more/different information than when I wrote it, should I not incorporate that information into my thinking? I suppose I could scribble an amendment onto my IPS to be in compliance with the doctrine.
Semper Augustus

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Lynette » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:25 pm

No I'm not buying but its a great day to exchange Wellington for an index fund in my taxable account. It will do some tax loss harvesting. I don't want funds in my taxable that spit out too many dividends or capital gains as I need to keep my MAGI as low as possible to avoid to have to pay higher Medicare B and D premiums.

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Twins Fan » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:31 pm

I don't think anyone means that an IPS should be locked in from day one and should NEVER change. Of course changes can be made to it, but it probably shouldn't be a regular thing.

The IPS is something to refer to when one starts talking about guts, emotions, and daily movements.

Does the IPS say anything about what to do on days the market drops by 2%? If not, maybe nothing should be done.

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by gvsucavie03 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:39 pm

mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
"Judgement" or "emotions"??

Erwin
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Erwin » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:41 pm

gvsucavie03 wrote:
mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
"Judgement" or "emotions"??
P/E
Erwin

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SteelyEyed
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by SteelyEyed » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:41 pm

I bought today. I had a lot of cash available from my TLH sale on Friday. :)

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greg24
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by greg24 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:41 pm

mpt follower wrote:My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
It sounds like making it more mechanical would help your strategy, because emotions aren't helping.

:sharebeer

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by KlangFool » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:45 pm

mpt follower wrote:
it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
mpt follower,

Why not? The whole point of having an IPS is to take emotion out of those kind of decision.

KlangFool

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Ged » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:47 pm

mpt follower wrote:I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.

What makes you think this is a major equity drop?

gvsucavie03
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by gvsucavie03 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:48 pm

mpt follower wrote:
gvsucavie03 wrote:
mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
"Judgement" or "emotions"??
P/E
Not following...

Erwin
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Erwin » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:53 pm

KlangFool wrote:
mpt follower wrote:
it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
mpt follower,

Why not? The whole point of having an IPS is to take emotion out of those kind of decision.

KlangFool
It seems that I am being misunderstood. I have been at this game too long to get emotional about investing. There is zero emotions in my thoughts. I am retired and frankly for all practical purposes have already won the game.
I am just looking at equity prices and asking myself whether they seem right.
Erwin

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Christine_NM
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Christine_NM » Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:58 pm

Toons wrote: My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactus :happy
Excellent idea! That is a smart IPS you have. I will try to remember that. Thanks.

ETA - in NM we fry up prickly pears and eat 'em.
17% cash 47% stock 36% bond. Retired, w/d rate 2.85%

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greg24
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by greg24 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:04 pm

mpt follower wrote:It seems that I am being misunderstood. I have been at this game too long to get emotional about investing. There is zero emotions in my thoughts.
What?!? Let me re-post your original post:
mpt follower wrote:I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.

livesoft
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by livesoft » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:11 pm

I had no problem buying today. I'll probably lose money, but so what?
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by joebh » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:13 pm

Toons wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactus :happy
Water it no more than once per week? :wink:

Morik
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Morik » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:18 pm

Toons wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactus :happy
If it must be touched, get someone else to do it?

Lynette
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Lynette » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:20 pm

I think it might be a good time to start to do Roth conversions but I haven't got the time to do it this afternoon - too busy at work - need to research it a bit more.

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Sbashore
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Sbashore » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:48 pm

KlangFool wrote:
mpt follower wrote:
it certainly was not a dumb question and I never intended to imply that. My only point is that investing is not a mechanical operation.
mpt follower,

Why not? The whole point of having an IPS is to take emotion out of those kind of decision.

KlangFool
At this point in my life (retired) it is pretty much mechanical. At least in the signals I get to buy or sell. It's based on - are my allocations out of whack according to my IPS> It's just an exercise in maintaining a given risk profile. I must admit to a little "non-mechanical" actions, like in 2008 when I got re-balancing signals, I'd go ahead and re-balance but only into a lower portion of my equity range instead of all the way to the target. Now days, all my decisions have already been made and thanks to the variables I can introduce via Excel, I have a nice degree of flexibility built into my IPS.
Steve | Semper Fi

livesoft
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by livesoft » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:54 pm

Do you have guts today to sell? Bond fund ETFs are up about 0.5% at the moment. Bond funds rarely go up by 0.5% or more in a single day. I'm sure they will trade lower later on this month.
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cheesepep
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by cheesepep » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:00 pm

I bought in today. Got some shares in CBRL, PSX, BDX today. Hold long-term.

edit: Also, got some SBUX.
Last edited by cheesepep on Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

namenloseblonde
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by namenloseblonde » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:02 pm

I bought today, because my DH's Roth IRA contribution needed to be made and I figured it was a better day for it than last Friday. Who knows about tomorrow? :D

LeisureLee
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by LeisureLee » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:11 pm

I'm buying today. Money from another account I closed just came in last week and a 10% discount over January 1st prices seems nice to me. =)

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by bmelikia » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:17 pm

livesoft wrote:I had no problem buying today. I'll probably lose money, but so what?
I'm with you livesoft - and if it goes lower, keep on buying - and if it goes higher, keep on buying - until we reach nirvana. . .
"I would rather die with money, than live without it...." - Bogleheads member Ron | | "The greatest enemy of a good plan, is the dream of a perfect plan." | -Bogle

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packet
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by packet » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:17 pm

livesoft wrote:Do you have guts today to sell? Bond fund ETFs are up about 0.5% at the moment. Bond funds rarely go up by 0.5% or more in a single day. I'm sure they will trade lower later on this month.
I wish I had your guts!

:beerCheers,
packet
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rgs92
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by rgs92 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:19 pm

I bought $20,000 of total stock market (on a 7-figure portfolio) today. I consider myself 90% Bogleheadian and 10% gambler. Works for me...

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blueblock
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by blueblock » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:23 pm

I didn't buy on Friday, so I threw in a little loose change today.

xjz
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by xjz » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:24 pm

mpt follower wrote:You absolutely right, but research has shown that valuations at purchase time govern long term profits. And although I am not and have never been a market timer, at times I believe that one can take advantage of the fact that the market behaves in a rational manner in the long term and emotionally in the short term.
I feel like the problem is that "short term" has no meaningful time bounds.

Suppose we have a completely fictionalized toy market that operates under the assumptions:
  • The only parameters of the market are price and earnings.
  • Earnings represent the true underlying value of the market.
  • Earnings grow steadily every year, say, 7% per year.
  • P/E fluctuates between 5 and 35 based purely on market sentiments, with an average value of 15.
  • P/E is currently at/near 35 (the maximum possible value).
  • P/E tends to change slowly relative to earnings.
Under these assumptions, even though this toy market is clearly, demonstrably overvalued/overhyped right now, the best investment strategy (in terms of expected return) is to invest all you can as soon as you can. Your expected returns are damaged by the current high P/E because over a long enough investment period, you'd expect P/E to revert to mean; even so, expected earnings growth more than compensates for this loss, and sitting out of the market to wait for the P/E to fall necessarily means you're missing out on earnings growth. You might get lucky and see the P/E fall faster than earnings rise, but that isn't the likely outcome.

Obviously it's less clear in reality, since none of those assumptions are actually true about the real markets we have. The point is just that the two observations "valuations at purchase time govern long term profits" and "the market behaves in a rational manner in the long term and emotionally in the short term" aren't enough to imply that you can do something clever to boost your expected returns. There needs to be something else at play to make the strategy work.
Last edited by xjz on Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

red5
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by red5 » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:25 pm

mpt follower wrote:I know that I will regret it. It happens to me every time that there is a major equity drop. Instead of buying I chicken out. In a year I will say the same I always say: "You fool"
I have been at it over 30 years and I cannot correct my bad habit.
If you've been at it for over 30 years then you are probably much closer to retirement than I am, or perhaps you are retired. So with that being said I cannot really relate to the emotions of someone so close to having to depend on investment income.

I try to make my investing as mechanical as possible, i.e. I try to eliminate emotions. I haven't bought anything of significance since around the beginning of January (I also haven't sold anything). But I am monitoring for rebalancing opportunities and if that event comes then I will sell bonds and buy stocks. I won't really have any new money to invest until next January. So what happens, happens. Perhaps there is a way for you to invest in a way that takes out many of the emotions?

Best of luck to you.

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by BTDT » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:28 pm

mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
What on earth does keeping with your own personal investing plan have to do with a cult?

Did I miss something? :oops:
If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.

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mhc
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by mhc » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:35 pm

So, what kind of response were you looking for when you made your post?

You know what people are going to say:
1. Stick to your IPS.
2. I'm buying today.
3. Don't be emotional.
4. You are okay.

As you have said, you are retired and have won the game. So what if you don't buy today. Enjoy life and stop looking at the markets.

I needed to buy today due to a large inflow of cash, so I was happy to see that the markets were down today. Makes me feel better after seeing how much the markets are down this year when I went through my rebalancing spreadsheet this weekend.

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by saltycaper » Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:58 pm

blueblock wrote:I didn't buy on Friday, so I threw in a little loose change today.
Same here. Looks like a bunch of people dug some change out of their couch cushions in the last hour.
Quod vitae sectabor iter?

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by scone » Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:08 pm

livesoft wrote:Do you have guts today to sell? Bond fund ETFs are up about 0.5% at the moment. Bond funds rarely go up by 0.5% or more in a single day. I'm sure they will trade lower later on this month.
Just out of idle curiosity, why do you think so? :happy
"My bond allocation is the amount of money that I cannot afford to lose." -- Taylor Larimore

livesoft
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by livesoft » Mon Feb 08, 2016 4:10 pm

Because they always have in the past. A 0.5% one-day pop in something like BND is almost always back-filled I think.

Anyways, I sold all my bond funds in my Vanguard IRA today. I have to convert to a Roth anyways, so I'll move the cash and buy something later in the Roth.
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Toons
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Toons » Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:00 pm

Christine_NM wrote:
Toons wrote: My IPS instructs me to treat my portfolio the way I would a cactus :happy
Excellent idea! That is a smart IPS you have. I will try to remember that. Thanks.

ETA - in NM we fry up prickly pears and eat 'em.

:sharebeer
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Fallible » Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:23 pm

mpt follower wrote:
dumbbunny wrote:What does your IPS say you should do in times like these?
Come on! Bogleheads is not a cult, use your judgement.
Using an IPS is using one's judgment. It is based on what is right for that investor, as determined by that investor, and used as a reminder to stay the course when the market is down or when the investor is tempted to make a wrong move. It is all about individual judgment.

A "cult"??
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Fat-Tailed Contagion
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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by Fat-Tailed Contagion » Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:31 pm

It seems to me that you have to look at valuations of both the stock and bond markets as suggested by Ben Graham.

Using his methodology tends to make a lot of sense to me and is a good way of avoiding equity market speculative manias.

Just my .02 :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :beer
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” | ― Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

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Re: No guts to buy today!

Post by itstoomuch » Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:35 pm

IBook decided today to download and install updates at 3:45pm. ET :oops:
Couldn't get to the tablet intime (low battery and couldn't find the charge cord) :oops:
Some of my utilities are near 52week highs. :oops:
Yet the utility indexes took a dive. :oops: I am over diversified here. :idea:

YMMV
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