[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

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Tigermoose
Posts: 823
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2012 5:02 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tigermoose »

folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:12 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am
nigel_ht wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:50 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:46 am
ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:32 am

Why are you so skeptical of scientific experts? What’s your own mind telling you for total number of deaths in the US in the next 12-18 months and why?
History. The history of what happened in China, South Korea, Italy, etc are showing us this pandemic peaks after about 1 month after the first death and then is significantly over by 2 months.
Only with significant containment efforts. Which you don't want right?
I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose. That animal does not exist.
Once a person has their mind made up, there is no benefit in showing data or statistics. There is no benefit in rational discussion and realistically no matter what happens in the next few weeks both of your points will be proven.
More cases will occur, there will be more deaths, but it will go down eventually. One of you will say it is because of social distancing, while the other will say that all that social distancing was a waste and hurt our economy unnecessarily.

What I said is true because you are talking about Italy and how the healthcare system is overrun and they can't keep up. People are dying. The other is saying that Italy is on the decline. You are saying it is because of the lockdown, the other is saying the lockdown was too much and the decline would have happened anyways. Neither will ever know the truth.
I personally am arguing because I deeply value this community, which has been enormously helpful to me. I have read hundreds of threads: small cap value vs. total market; Emergeling markets or not.

I have read these and make my own decisions based on how strong I feel the arguments are.

I want to make sure that anyone who reads this thread hears me. If I’m wrong we all lose some money. If I’m right maybe we saved some lives.
Those living paycheck to paycheck might not be able to weather this as well as you or I. Maybe you save some lives, but then we have an economy suffering a depression with the following:

suicides
divorces
children not able to go to college
alcoholism and drug abuse
etc etc
Institutions matter
Tigermoose
Posts: 823
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2012 5:02 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tigermoose »

folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:17 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:15 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am
nigel_ht wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:50 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:46 am

History. The history of what happened in China, South Korea, Italy, etc are showing us this pandemic peaks after about 1 month after the first death and then is significantly over by 2 months.
Only with significant containment efforts. Which you don't want right?
I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose. That animal does not exist.
Once a person has their mind made up, there is no benefit in showing data or statistics. There is no benefit in rational discussion and realistically no matter what happens in the next few weeks both of your points will be proven.
More cases will occur, there will be more deaths, but it will go down eventually. One of you will say it is because of social distancing, while the other will say that all that social distancing was a waste and hurt our economy unnecessarily.

What I said is true because you are talking about Italy and how the healthcare system is overrun and they can't keep up. People are dying. The other is saying that Italy is on the decline. You are saying it is because of the lockdown, the other is saying the lockdown was too much and the decline would have happened anyways. Neither will ever know the truth.
The United States is not Italy. We had more time to prepare, better information, and we have better healthcare personnel and institutions.
We had more time to prepare and didn’t.

We had the same information and didn’t act on it.

The healthcare infrastructure in northern Italy is world class with more hospital beds per capita than the US.
My healthcare institution has acted, as have thousands of others. Federal government action is not what makes the United States superior in our ability to handle this. Our personnel are better. Our institutions are better. Our productive capacity is better. I think you will be surprised how well we handle this once the panic and media click bait subsides.
Institutions matter
Tigermoose
Posts: 823
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2012 5:02 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tigermoose »

iceman wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:16 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:55 am
nigel_ht wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:50 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:46 am
ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:32 am

Why are you so skeptical of scientific experts? What’s your own mind telling you for total number of deaths in the US in the next 12-18 months and why?
History. The history of what happened in China, South Korea, Italy, etc are showing us this pandemic peaks after about 1 month after the first death and then is significantly over by 2 months.
Only with significant containment efforts. Which you don't want right?
I think a relatively short period like we are doing now is fine. But this shutdown needs to end in the new 2-3 weeks. We need to keep precautions in place specifically for those over 65 and those with chronic conditions. People should continue to practice social distancing and practice good hygiene. We need to continue ramping up production of PPE and ventilators and reallocating staff to support care providers, and setting up temporary COVID wards in areas hardest hit by the virus. Testing needs to become more widely available in the next 2-3 weeks to everyone via drive through and local pharmacies.
Then perhaps we agree more than I realized. I agree those are the measures we need to be taking. I also agree that we cannot shutdown indefinitely even without a vaccine. Where we disagree is that I think shutdowns should remain in place until we can get the PPE and ventilators we need. We need to both increase supply of those items and decrease expected demand.

I'll acknowledge now that I am not an expert, nor do I have access to the same information as governments. As a regular person, with just news available, what would make me feel like we are on the right path would be a coordinated effort between federal govt, state govts and private business to immediately ramp up production of those items, based on projected need. Lay out what to the public what is needed to increase that supply and decrease the demand, how long it will take to get it, and what the public needs to do until that capacity is there, and what they'll/we'll need to do after. People are resilient and can thrive even in terrible conditions (worse than these) when they feel like they are part of a larger purpose. Speaking for myself, my fear is that if that isn't done, and the public gets mixed messaging on what they need to be doing, any benefit we begin to see from the current measures will abate and then things will ramp back up so quickly that it will be even harder to get it under control.
:sharebeer
Institutions matter
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8272
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by EnjoyIt »

iceman wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:16 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:55 am
nigel_ht wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:50 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:46 am
ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:32 am

Why are you so skeptical of scientific experts? What’s your own mind telling you for total number of deaths in the US in the next 12-18 months and why?
History. The history of what happened in China, South Korea, Italy, etc are showing us this pandemic peaks after about 1 month after the first death and then is significantly over by 2 months.
Only with significant containment efforts. Which you don't want right?
I think a relatively short period like we are doing now is fine. But this shutdown needs to end in the new 2-3 weeks. We need to keep precautions in place specifically for those over 65 and those with chronic conditions. People should continue to practice social distancing and practice good hygiene. We need to continue ramping up production of PPE and ventilators and reallocating staff to support care providers, and setting up temporary COVID wards in areas hardest hit by the virus. Testing needs to become more widely available in the next 2-3 weeks to everyone via drive through and local pharmacies.
Then perhaps we agree more than I realized. I agree those are the measures we need to be taking. I also agree that we cannot shutdown indefinitely even without a vaccine. Where we disagree is that I think shutdowns should remain in place until we can get the PPE and ventilators we need. We need to both increase supply of those items and decrease expected demand.

I'll acknowledge now that I am not an expert, nor do I have access to the same information as governments. As a regular person, with just news available, what would make me feel like we are on the right path would be a coordinated effort between federal govt, state govts and private business to immediately ramp up production of those items, based on projected need. Lay out what to the public what is needed to increase that supply and decrease the demand, how long it will take to get it, and what the public needs to do until that capacity is there, and what they'll/we'll need to do after. People are resilient and can thrive even in terrible conditions (worse than these) when they feel like they are part of a larger purpose. Speaking for myself, my fear is that if that isn't done, and the public gets mixed messaging on what they need to be doing, any benefit we begin to see from the current measures will abate and then things will ramp back up so quickly that it will be even harder to get it under control.
If we can just get enough masks and hand sanitizer to everyone, it would be a lot easier to open up commerce again. Everyone keep their distance, wear masks in public, don't touch their faces, and wash/clean hands regularly. We just need to get through this difficult hump and get our supplies ready. The virus will likely linger around for months. But if we all protect ourselves, we should be able to keep it at bay and not overwhelm our healthcare system which is when death tolls increase multifold aka Italy.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KlangFool »

EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:24 am
If we can just get enough masks and hand sanitizer to everyone, it would be a lot easier to open up commerce again. Everyone keep their distance, wear masks in public, don't touch their faces, and wash/clean hands regularly. We just need to get through this difficult hump and get our supplies ready. The virus will likely linger around for months. But if we all protect ourselves, we should be able to keep it at bay and not overwhelm our healthcare system which is when death tolls increase multifold aka Italy.
EnjoyIt,

In my opinion, those are the leading indicators that we have this Coronavirus under control.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
halfnine
Posts: 2421
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 12:48 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by halfnine »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:32 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:24 am
If we can just get enough masks and hand sanitizer to everyone, it would be a lot easier to open up commerce again. Everyone keep their distance, wear masks in public, don't touch their faces, and wash/clean hands regularly. We just need to get through this difficult hump and get our supplies ready. The virus will likely linger around for months. But if we all protect ourselves, we should be able to keep it at bay and not overwhelm our healthcare system which is when death tolls increase multifold aka Italy.
EnjoyIt,

In my opinion, those are the leading indicators that we have this Coronavirus under control.

KlangFool
This. When wearing masks become more the norm.
ThankYouJack
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:27 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack »

EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am

I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose.
I was actually enjoying the dialog with tigermoose and wouldn't consider it an argument. I was hoping for more of a scientific explanation for when he/she feels this will be "significantly over" in about a month. Although I think there's a pretty strong ideology leading to confirmation bias we can all hope tigermoose is right. In the meantime, I'm listening to the experts and my friends who are doctors and scientists, self-isolating with my family until more data comes out and my local hospital capacity is proven to be manageable. Some people are doing this out of fear, but I believe more are doing it out of selflessness.
M.Lee
Posts: 174
Joined: Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:26 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by M.Lee »

With respect to the benefit of the non-infected wearing masks, I realize the CDC and WHO says we shouldn't wear them and they don't help. We can choose to believe them, or not. I don't. There is some interesting data on mask wearing in this video link I've provided below. I have not vetted out the sources yet, but some appear to be non-quacks. I just happen to have some N95's that I bought long before the virus. I'll be wearing one the next time I go to the super market because I am in that critical 20% group.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JH04M0 ... e=youtu.be
vv19
Posts: 1159
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:56 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by vv19 »

nigel_ht wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:10 am

I don't get the anti-science mindset and the distrust of experts.
Says a lot about the political climate we currently live in.
vv19
Posts: 1159
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:56 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by vv19 »

For people who still think that Covid-19 is no worse than flu, please read this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... om-doctor/
Tigermoose
Posts: 823
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2012 5:02 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tigermoose »

ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am

I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose.
I was actually enjoying the dialog with tigermoose and wouldn't consider it an argument. I was hoping for more of a scientific explanation for when he/she feels this will be "significantly over" in about a month. Although I think there's a pretty strong ideology leading to confirmation bias we can all hope tigermoose is right. In the meantime, I'm listening to the experts and my friends who are doctors and scientists, self-isolating with my family until more data comes out and my local hospital capacity is proven to be manageable. Some people are doing this out of fear, but I believe more are doing it out of selflessness.
My family is isolating as well. My concern is for the vast majority of this country that will suffer under unemployment and a depression if we side too heavily with the medical community in making a decision for the well being of the country. They are one side of this argument. Being concerned about deaths due to the coronavirus is admirable, but what about all the death and suffering that comes with a great depression or major recession? Based on the past data, I do think the experts' models are flawed and they lack enough valid data to be close to reasonable.
Institutions matter
folkher0
Posts: 912
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 »

Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am
folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:17 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:15 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am
nigel_ht wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:50 am

Only with significant containment efforts. Which you don't want right?
I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose. That animal does not exist.
Once a person has their mind made up, there is no benefit in showing data or statistics. There is no benefit in rational discussion and realistically no matter what happens in the next few weeks both of your points will be proven.
More cases will occur, there will be more deaths, but it will go down eventually. One of you will say it is because of social distancing, while the other will say that all that social distancing was a waste and hurt our economy unnecessarily.

What I said is true because you are talking about Italy and how the healthcare system is overrun and they can't keep up. People are dying. The other is saying that Italy is on the decline. You are saying it is because of the lockdown, the other is saying the lockdown was too much and the decline would have happened anyways. Neither will ever know the truth.
The United States is not Italy. We had more time to prepare, better information, and we have better healthcare personnel and institutions.
We had more time to prepare and didn’t.

We had the same information and didn’t act on it.

The healthcare infrastructure in northern Italy is world class with more hospital beds per capita than the US.
My healthcare institution has acted, as have thousands of others. Federal government action is not what makes the United States superior in our ability to handle this. Our personnel are better. Our institutions are better. Our productive capacity is better. I think you will be surprised how well we handle this once the panic and media click bait subsides.
My friend:

The US healthcare system operates at thin margins of capacity. In order to keep the bottom line in the black, most hospitals operate at greater than 80% capacity during normal times. Hospital staff in the US are similarly equipped to run near capacity during normal times. There are good and bad reasons for this. Mostly I believe its a response to market driven healthcare in a competitive economic environment.

But that's above my paygrade. I'm just a working stiff telling you what I'm seeing. Every epidemiologist I talk with (I have a masters degree in public health in addition to an MD) around the country fully expects this to progress at various levels throughout the country.

I'm curious about what your institutional plans are and how they will respond if COVID explodes on your doorstep, as it has at mine. Keep us posted?

I am confident this will pass, the only question is how long and how many dead and debilitated. In the meantime....

Please.

Just. Stay. Home.
McDougal
Posts: 557
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:42 pm
Location: Atlanta

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by McDougal »

Remember back when hoarding masks was a problem?
So it appears from the NY Times some doctors may be stockpiling corona virus trial drugs for themselves!
Stay classy, people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/busi ... drugs.html
folkher0
Posts: 912
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 »

One more reality before I get back to work.

If you are admitted to the hospital with COVID, you will not see your family until you are discharged. The only human contact you will have is with medical personnel wearing gowns gloves, masks, faceshields. Everyone of them will do their very best to give you the highest quality care. Every one of them will also spend no more time near you than absolutely necessary.

You will be essentially alone.

This is not to discourage you from coming in to get treated if you are ill. I am just trying to share the reality of this disease.

Please stay home
(unless you need medical care).
User avatar
framus
Posts: 171
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 1:57 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by framus »

ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am

I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose.
I was actually enjoying the dialog with tigermoose and wouldn't consider it an argument. I was hoping for more of a scientific explanation for when he/she feels this will be "significantly over" in about a month. Although I think there's a pretty strong ideology leading to confirmation bias we can all hope tigermoose is right. In the meantime, I'm listening to the experts and my friends who are doctors and scientists, self-isolating with my family until more data comes out and my local hospital capacity is proven to be manageable. Some people are doing this out of fear, but I believe more are doing it out of selflessness.
:sharebeer
Tigermoose
Posts: 823
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2012 5:02 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tigermoose »

folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:21 pm
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am
folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:17 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:15 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am

I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose. That animal does not exist.
Once a person has their mind made up, there is no benefit in showing data or statistics. There is no benefit in rational discussion and realistically no matter what happens in the next few weeks both of your points will be proven.
More cases will occur, there will be more deaths, but it will go down eventually. One of you will say it is because of social distancing, while the other will say that all that social distancing was a waste and hurt our economy unnecessarily.

What I said is true because you are talking about Italy and how the healthcare system is overrun and they can't keep up. People are dying. The other is saying that Italy is on the decline. You are saying it is because of the lockdown, the other is saying the lockdown was too much and the decline would have happened anyways. Neither will ever know the truth.
The United States is not Italy. We had more time to prepare, better information, and we have better healthcare personnel and institutions.
We had more time to prepare and didn’t.

We had the same information and didn’t act on it.

The healthcare infrastructure in northern Italy is world class with more hospital beds per capita than the US.
My healthcare institution has acted, as have thousands of others. Federal government action is not what makes the United States superior in our ability to handle this. Our personnel are better. Our institutions are better. Our productive capacity is better. I think you will be surprised how well we handle this once the panic and media click bait subsides.
My friend:

The US healthcare system operates at thin margins of capacity. In order to keep the bottom line in the black, most hospitals operate at greater than 80% capacity during normal times. Hospital staff in the US are similarly equipped to run near capacity during normal times. There are good and bad reasons for this. Mostly I believe its a response to market driven healthcare in a competitive economic environment.

But that's above my paygrade. I'm just a working stiff telling you what I'm seeing. Every epidemiologist I talk with (I have a masters degree in public health in addition to an MD) around the country fully expects this to progress at various levels throughout the country.

I'm curious about what your institutional plans are and how they will respond if COVID explodes on your doorstep, as it has at mine. Keep us posted?

I am confident this will pass, the only question is how long and how many dead and debilitated. In the meantime....

Please.

Just. Stay. Home.
For your consideration:
US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-wa ... nd-in-2019
Institutions matter
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 14149
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Stinky »

Peter G wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:14 am Some mentions of 'death rate' here. I want to know my chance of dying, forget age, gender, whatever just group them all together. Are those two measures the same?
If not, how do I estimate a chance of dying, forget country, health insurance etc.
Your chance of dying is 100%. At some point in time.

---------------------

Seriously, I don't think that we'll know the true mortality rate from COVID-19 for a long time to come. There seems to be pretty good tracking of deaths from COVID-19 right now. But I have zero confidence in the "cases" of COVID. At some point, I expect that we'll come back and figure out how many folks had COVID and never felt any symptoms at all (or at least any symptoms that rose to the level of COVID). Those folks are not in the "demoninator" of the mortality rate now, but I think that there are a lot of folks like that.

I don't have any idea where this will all settle out eventually. But I expect that the true mortality rate will be a lot lower than some of the scary numbers that have been bandied about.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
folkher0
Posts: 912
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 »

Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:36 pm
folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:21 pm
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am
folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:17 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:15 am

The United States is not Italy. We had more time to prepare, better information, and we have better healthcare personnel and institutions.
We had more time to prepare and didn’t.

We had the same information and didn’t act on it.

The healthcare infrastructure in northern Italy is world class with more hospital beds per capita than the US.
My healthcare institution has acted, as have thousands of others. Federal government action is not what makes the United States superior in our ability to handle this. Our personnel are better. Our institutions are better. Our productive capacity is better. I think you will be surprised how well we handle this once the panic and media click bait subsides.
My friend:

The US healthcare system operates at thin margins of capacity. In order to keep the bottom line in the black, most hospitals operate at greater than 80% capacity during normal times. Hospital staff in the US are similarly equipped to run near capacity during normal times. There are good and bad reasons for this. Mostly I believe its a response to market driven healthcare in a competitive economic environment.

But that's above my paygrade. I'm just a working stiff telling you what I'm seeing. Every epidemiologist I talk with (I have a masters degree in public health in addition to an MD) around the country fully expects this to progress at various levels throughout the country.

I'm curious about what your institutional plans are and how they will respond if COVID explodes on your doorstep, as it has at mine. Keep us posted?

I am confident this will pass, the only question is how long and how many dead and debilitated. In the meantime....

Please.

Just. Stay. Home.
For your consideration:
US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-wa ... nd-in-2019
I find articles from the lay press on this subject completely unsatisfying. I'm glad we thought we were prepared in 2019. However those preparations implied timely mobilization, identification and sequestering infected individuals and a coordinated national response. None of those things have we done or are we able to do at this time.

I just heard that they are releasing prisoners to avoid a mass causality event.

Does this sound like we are well prepared?

For what its worth, the Johns Hopkins participation in this study appears to be relatively minimal. Hence my advice to avoid the lay press. You mentioned to be careful about clickbait in your previous posts. In my opinion, your reference qualifies.

Good luck.
ThankYouJack
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:27 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack »

Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:06 pm
ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am

I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose.
I was actually enjoying the dialog with tigermoose and wouldn't consider it an argument. I was hoping for more of a scientific explanation for when he/she feels this will be "significantly over" in about a month. Although I think there's a pretty strong ideology leading to confirmation bias we can all hope tigermoose is right. In the meantime, I'm listening to the experts and my friends who are doctors and scientists, self-isolating with my family until more data comes out and my local hospital capacity is proven to be manageable. Some people are doing this out of fear, but I believe more are doing it out of selflessness.
My family is isolating as well. My concern is for the vast majority of this country that will suffer under unemployment and a depression if we side too heavily with the medical community in making a decision for the well being of the country. They are one side of this argument. Being concerned about deaths due to the coronavirus is admirable, but what about all the death and suffering that comes with a great depression or major recession? Based on the past data, I do think the experts' models are flawed and they lack enough valid data to be close to reasonable.
Are you saying that deaths increase with a depression or major recession? I've read the opposite
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KlangFool »

Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:36 pm

For your consideration:
US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-wa ... nd-in-2019
Tigermoose,

This is the most basic of pandemic preparation. Enough PPE for the frontline healthcare people.

Other countries have enough masks for the healthcare people and its citizens. They are sending their excess masks to the USA.

Meanwhile, the USA does not have enough N95 masks for its own healthcare people. Some medical person has to reuse their disposable N95 masks.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Tigermoose
Posts: 823
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2012 5:02 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Tigermoose »

folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:53 pm
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:36 pm
folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:21 pm
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am
folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:17 am

We had more time to prepare and didn’t.

We had the same information and didn’t act on it.

The healthcare infrastructure in northern Italy is world class with more hospital beds per capita than the US.
My healthcare institution has acted, as have thousands of others. Federal government action is not what makes the United States superior in our ability to handle this. Our personnel are better. Our institutions are better. Our productive capacity is better. I think you will be surprised how well we handle this once the panic and media click bait subsides.
My friend:

The US healthcare system operates at thin margins of capacity. In order to keep the bottom line in the black, most hospitals operate at greater than 80% capacity during normal times. Hospital staff in the US are similarly equipped to run near capacity during normal times. There are good and bad reasons for this. Mostly I believe its a response to market driven healthcare in a competitive economic environment.

But that's above my paygrade. I'm just a working stiff telling you what I'm seeing. Every epidemiologist I talk with (I have a masters degree in public health in addition to an MD) around the country fully expects this to progress at various levels throughout the country.

I'm curious about what your institutional plans are and how they will respond if COVID explodes on your doorstep, as it has at mine. Keep us posted?

I am confident this will pass, the only question is how long and how many dead and debilitated. In the meantime....

Please.

Just. Stay. Home.
For your consideration:
US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-wa ... nd-in-2019
I find articles from the lay press on this subject completely unsatisfying. I'm glad we thought we were prepared in 2019. However those preparations implied timely mobilization, identification and sequestering infected individuals and a coordinated national response. None of those things have we done or are we able to do at this time.

I just heard that they are releasing prisoners to avoid a mass causality event.

Does this sound like we are well prepared?

For what its worth, the Johns Hopkins participation in this study appears to be relatively minimal. Hence my advice to avoid the lay press. You mentioned to be careful about clickbait in your previous posts. In my opinion, your reference qualifies.

Good luck.
Here is the security index link, since the article about the study was "lay press."

https://www.ghsindex.org/
Institutions matter
smitcat
Posts: 13300
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by smitcat »

Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:59 pm
folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:53 pm
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:36 pm
folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:21 pm
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am

My healthcare institution has acted, as have thousands of others. Federal government action is not what makes the United States superior in our ability to handle this. Our personnel are better. Our institutions are better. Our productive capacity is better. I think you will be surprised how well we handle this once the panic and media click bait subsides.
My friend:

The US healthcare system operates at thin margins of capacity. In order to keep the bottom line in the black, most hospitals operate at greater than 80% capacity during normal times. Hospital staff in the US are similarly equipped to run near capacity during normal times. There are good and bad reasons for this. Mostly I believe its a response to market driven healthcare in a competitive economic environment.

But that's above my paygrade. I'm just a working stiff telling you what I'm seeing. Every epidemiologist I talk with (I have a masters degree in public health in addition to an MD) around the country fully expects this to progress at various levels throughout the country.

I'm curious about what your institutional plans are and how they will respond if COVID explodes on your doorstep, as it has at mine. Keep us posted?

I am confident this will pass, the only question is how long and how many dead and debilitated. In the meantime....

Please.

Just. Stay. Home.
For your consideration:
US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-wa ... nd-in-2019
I find articles from the lay press on this subject completely unsatisfying. I'm glad we thought we were prepared in 2019. However those preparations implied timely mobilization, identification and sequestering infected individuals and a coordinated national response. None of those things have we done or are we able to do at this time.

I just heard that they are releasing prisoners to avoid a mass causality event.

Does this sound like we are well prepared?

For what its worth, the Johns Hopkins participation in this study appears to be relatively minimal. Hence my advice to avoid the lay press. You mentioned to be careful about clickbait in your previous posts. In my opinion, your reference qualifies.

Good luck.
Here is the security index link, since the article about the study was "lay press."

https://www.ghsindex.org/
Glad we got an 83 on the 'test'.
Too bad it's not playing out that way in real life.
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:06 pm
ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 am
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 am

I don't understand why you are arguing with a tigermoose.
I was actually enjoying the dialog with tigermoose and wouldn't consider it an argument. I was hoping for more of a scientific explanation for when he/she feels this will be "significantly over" in about a month. Although I think there's a pretty strong ideology leading to confirmation bias we can all hope tigermoose is right. In the meantime, I'm listening to the experts and my friends who are doctors and scientists, self-isolating with my family until more data comes out and my local hospital capacity is proven to be manageable. Some people are doing this out of fear, but I believe more are doing it out of selflessness.
My family is isolating as well. My concern is for the vast majority of this country that will suffer under unemployment and a depression if we side too heavily with the medical community in making a decision for the well being of the country. They are one side of this argument. Being concerned about deaths due to the coronavirus is admirable, but what about all the death and suffering that comes with a great depression or major recession? Based on the past data, I do think the experts' models are flawed and they lack enough valid data to be close to reasonable.
If this isn't managed properly with lockdowns and social distancing, it will almost certainly lead to a major recession or depression anyway.

It is much better to face this head on now so we can minimize the capacity issues in the healthcare system, minimize unnecessary deaths, buy time to learn more and possibly find treatments, work on vaccines, increase capacity in the healthcare system, and ramp up testing including antibody testing so that we can safely keep our critical supply chains operating and get back to work sooner.
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wshang
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by wshang »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:58 pm Meanwhile, the USA does not have enough N95 masks for its own healthcare people. Some medical person has to reuse their disposable N95 masks.
I'll share a little secret with my fellow BH's. P100 masks are actually better at screening microparticles than N95. They are traditionally used for spray painting and may be easier to obtain because everyone is fixated on "N95."
ThankYouJack
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack »

McDougal wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:26 pm Remember back when hoarding masks was a problem?
So it appears from the NY Times some doctors may be stockpiling corona virus trial drugs for themselves!
Stay classy, people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/busi ... drugs.html
I couldn't read the article (I don't have a subscription) but I'm not sure if I have a problem with this. The people on the front lines are the heroes with all of this. We need them as healthy as possible to save as many lives as possible. If you're seeing many CV patients a day, it seems only a matter of time before you get it. So I think it's wrong for me to be too critical of those risking their own life to save lives while I sit here on my sofa doing nothing for a couple weeks.
mouses
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by mouses »

Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am My healthcare institution has acted, as have thousands of others. Federal government action is not what makes the United States superior in our ability to handle this. Our personnel are better. Our institutions are better. Our productive capacity is better. I think you will be surprised how well we handle this once the panic and media click bait subsides.
Every one of those US institutions was late to the game. It is already too late to "handle this well."

Good thing federal action is not what is important because the federal government is MIA.

You really have no idea about the quality of Italian medical care. You'd think you were talking about Ecuador or something.
McDougal
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Location: Atlanta

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by McDougal »

ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:23 pm
McDougal wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:26 pm Remember back when hoarding masks was a problem?
So it appears from the NY Times some doctors may be stockpiling corona virus trial drugs for themselves!
Stay classy, people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/busi ... drugs.html
I couldn't read the article (I don't have a subscription) but I'm not sure if I have a problem with this. The people on the front lines are the heroes with all of this. We need them as healthy as possible to save as many lives as possible. If you're seeing many CV patients a day, it seems only a matter of time before you get it. So I think it's wrong for me to be too critical of those risking their own life to save lives while I sit here on my sofa doing nothing for a couple weeks.
While I agree folks on the front lines need to be as healthy and protected as can be, these drugs are not preventative, they are being tested as potential treatments. The article further states that RXs are being written for MDs themselves and their families. In addition, the president of the AMA said the association is calling for a stop to any inappropriate prescribing and ordering of medications, including chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, and appeals to all physicians and HCPs to follow the highest standards of professionalism and ethics. Also, if these drugs end up in a shortage situation, patients who need them for their approved uses - rheumatoid arthritis, lupus - may not be able to get them. I get it, we are all human. Hopefully this report is on only a minuscule percentage of HCPs. I found it disheartening to say the least.
User avatar
framus
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by framus »

EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:24 am
iceman wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:16 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:55 am
nigel_ht wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:50 am
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:46 am

History. The history of what happened in China, South Korea, Italy, etc are showing us this pandemic peaks after about 1 month after the first death and then is significantly over by 2 months.
Only with significant containment efforts. Which you don't want right?
I think a relatively short period like we are doing now is fine. But this shutdown needs to end in the new 2-3 weeks. We need to keep precautions in place specifically for those over 65 and those with chronic conditions. People should continue to practice social distancing and practice good hygiene. We need to continue ramping up production of PPE and ventilators and reallocating staff to support care providers, and setting up temporary COVID wards in areas hardest hit by the virus. Testing needs to become more widely available in the next 2-3 weeks to everyone via drive through and local pharmacies.
Then perhaps we agree more than I realized. I agree those are the measures we need to be taking. I also agree that we cannot shutdown indefinitely even without a vaccine. Where we disagree is that I think shutdowns should remain in place until we can get the PPE and ventilators we need. We need to both increase supply of those items and decrease expected demand.

I'll acknowledge now that I am not an expert, nor do I have access to the same information as governments. As a regular person, with just news available, what would make me feel like we are on the right path would be a coordinated effort between federal govt, state govts and private business to immediately ramp up production of those items, based on projected need. Lay out what to the public what is needed to increase that supply and decrease the demand, how long it will take to get it, and what the public needs to do until that capacity is there, and what they'll/we'll need to do after. People are resilient and can thrive even in terrible conditions (worse than these) when they feel like they are part of a larger purpose. Speaking for myself, my fear is that if that isn't done, and the public gets mixed messaging on what they need to be doing, any benefit we begin to see from the current measures will abate and then things will ramp back up so quickly that it will be even harder to get it under control.
If we can just get enough masks and hand sanitizer to everyone, it would be a lot easier to open up commerce again. Everyone keep their distance, wear masks in public, don't touch their faces, and wash/clean hands regularly. We just need to get through this difficult hump and get our supplies ready. The virus will likely linger around for months. But if we all protect ourselves, we should be able to keep it at bay and not overwhelm our healthcare system which is when death tolls increase multifold aka Italy.
A significant help in opening up the shutdown would be a test that would enable determination that a person had developed immunity to the pathogen. This would enable these folks to re-engage in commerce and not be contamination vectors. Mario Cuomo has articulated how such an approach could be established.
hilink73
Posts: 588
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by hilink73 »

folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:53 pm
Tigermoose wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:36 pm
For your consideration:
US was more prepared for pandemic than any other country, Johns Hopkins study found
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-wa ... nd-in-2019
...

In my opinion, your reference qualifies.

...
Funny, if it wouldn't be so sad.

I must go now.
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KlangFool »

framus wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:49 pm

A significant help in opening up the shutdown would be a test that would enable determination that a person had developed immunity to the pathogen. This would enable these folks to re-engage in commerce and not be contamination vectors. Mario Cuomo has articulated how such an approach could be established.
frames,

In another word, more and better testing. In contrast to the "no testing and assume everyone will be infected" approach. Aka, just send everyone back to work and hope for the best.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
folkher0
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 »

McDougal wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:48 pm
ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:23 pm
McDougal wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:26 pm Remember back when hoarding masks was a problem?
So it appears from the NY Times some doctors may be stockpiling corona virus trial drugs for themselves!
Stay classy, people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/busi ... drugs.html
I couldn't read the article (I don't have a subscription) but I'm not sure if I have a problem with this. The people on the front lines are the heroes with all of this. We need them as healthy as possible to save as many lives as possible. If you're seeing many CV patients a day, it seems only a matter of time before you get it. So I think it's wrong for me to be too critical of those risking their own life to save lives while I sit here on my sofa doing nothing for a couple weeks.
While I agree folks on the front lines need to be as healthy and protected as can be, these drugs are not preventative, they are being tested as potential treatments. The article further states that RXs are being written for MDs themselves and their families. In addition, the president of the AMA said the association is calling for a stop to any inappropriate prescribing and ordering of medications, including chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, and appeals to all physicians and HCPs to follow the highest standards of professionalism and ethics. Also, if these drugs end up in a shortage situation, patients who need them for their approved uses - rheumatoid arthritis, lupus - may not be able to get them. I get it, we are all human. Hopefully this report is on only a minuscule percentage of HCPs. I found it disheartening to say the least.
FWIW I have tried these drugs in my patients. They haven’t worked. We are giving it because we have no other treatments

It’s a little naive to think a 50 year old malaria/lupus drug and a zpac are gonna get us out of this. No matter what the president says.

There are clinical trials ongoing of various agents. No one will know for months if they actually help or hurt.

And no I don’t have any plaquenil or azithromycin and would never horde any.

This story, if true, says more about the morale of health care providers than it does about the efficacy of these meds.
Barkingsparrow
Posts: 680
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:09 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Barkingsparrow »

folkher0 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:02 pm
FWIW I have tried these drugs in my patients. They haven’t worked. We are giving it because we have no other treatments

It’s a little naive to think a 50 year old malaria/lupus drug and a zpac are gonna get us out of this. No matter what the president says.

There are clinical trials ongoing of various agents. No one will know for months if they actually help or hurt.

And no I don’t have any plaquenil or azithromycin and would never horde any.

This story, if true, says more about the morale of health care providers than it does about the efficacy of these meds.
My wife is on plaquenil as she has an auto-immune condition. Fortunately, she was able to renew a 90-day prescription in early March before the president came out with his dangerous anecdotes. However, one of her support group members has said she is unable to refill, and I'm seeing the same situation for other Lupus/Sjogren patients around the country.
beth65
Posts: 174
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by beth65 »

Nobody has addressed why we should be heading to a major recession or depression, even with the virus and quarantines, if we are coming off what was supposedly the "best economy ever". We supposedly had historically low employment rates, valuations were completely detached from reality, and yet companies don't have enough liquidity for 3-6 months, despite the huge tax cuts that many of them received in 2018? Maybe our addiction to cheap debt will screw us over more than any virus.

I live in a red state where people still aren't believing that this is a problem, and that asking them to stay home on their couch and watch Netflix and get their deliveries to their door is infringing upon their rights to go spend money that they won't have (due to this impending recession/depression) at a bar. Which is it? Is the virus no big deal and everything is fine, or do we need government bailouts for corporations that have no fiscal responsibility, and will still find a way to lay off workers for "cost cutting" after getting their handout/interest-free loan from the govt.
nigel_ht
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

McDougal wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:48 pm
While I agree folks on the front lines need to be as healthy and protected as can be, these drugs are not preventative, they are being tested as potential treatments.
There is some thought that chloroquinine has a prophylaxis effect.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04303507

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04308668

Study completion dates are next year so unless the early results are staggeringly obvious don't expect any immediate news.

I'd rather they have chloroquinine and continue to show up. They aren't just risking themselves but their families as well.

"Six months into the 15-month Ebola epidemic, health-care providers stopped coming to work. They had little PPE. They saw their friends die without any special care. Their colleagues began abandoning their jobs, one by one, until there was no one left. There was nowhere for people to obtain treatment for stomach pain, childbirth, heart attacks, car crashes, or any other routine or unpredictable health event. As a result, experts estimate that more people died from illnesses like malaria and diarrhea than Ebola."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... rs/608662/
beth65
Posts: 174
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by beth65 »

FYI:

Hydroxycholorquine is ineffective for Covid-19 in a small study:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... ad83eb6092

On a positive note, they are already in phase III studies (being pushed through EUA at the FDA) for Acterma, which inhibits IL-6, preventing cytokine storm which kills many people with respiratory viruses such as Covid-19 and influenza:

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/85545

"It appears that in patients who are having the worst outcomes with COVID-19 infections, the immune system itself may be the culprit, with developments similar to hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) and macrophage activation syndrome (MAS), Muskardin explained. In these conditions, the immune system becomes overactive with excessive production of T cells and macrophages, resulting in a "cytokine storm" with a variety of proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukins (IL)-1, 6, 12, and 18 being released. Fatalities are not uncommon."
Last edited by beth65 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:14 pm, edited 4 times in total.
ThankYouJack
Posts: 5704
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack »

McDougal wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:48 pm
ThankYouJack wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:23 pm
McDougal wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:26 pm Remember back when hoarding masks was a problem?
So it appears from the NY Times some doctors may be stockpiling corona virus trial drugs for themselves!
Stay classy, people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/busi ... drugs.html
I couldn't read the article (I don't have a subscription) but I'm not sure if I have a problem with this. The people on the front lines are the heroes with all of this. We need them as healthy as possible to save as many lives as possible. If you're seeing many CV patients a day, it seems only a matter of time before you get it. So I think it's wrong for me to be too critical of those risking their own life to save lives while I sit here on my sofa doing nothing for a couple weeks.
While I agree folks on the front lines need to be as healthy and protected as can be, these drugs are not preventative, they are being tested as potential treatments. The article further states that RXs are being written for MDs themselves and their families. In addition, the president of the AMA said the association is calling for a stop to any inappropriate prescribing and ordering of medications, including chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, and appeals to all physicians and HCPs to follow the highest standards of professionalism and ethics. Also, if these drugs end up in a shortage situation, patients who need them for their approved uses - rheumatoid arthritis, lupus - may not be able to get them. I get it, we are all human. Hopefully this report is on only a minuscule percentage of HCPs. I found it disheartening to say the least.
I'm just getting tired of the divisiveness by certain leaders and a lot of the media. I doubt many, if any, MDs are "hoarding" and "stockpiling" the drugs. It makes me think of the recent story about teens coughing on fruit becoming a new trend - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coughing-on-produce/. I'm sure a lot of HCP's are quite scared by this (who wouldn't be in their shoes) and there's always going to be a few bad apples in the bunch. I sure hope there isn't a shortage of drugs, especially with China shutting down for a while, but I don't think we should get too worked up over this news story.
vv19
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by vv19 »

Alex Frakt
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Alex Frakt »

Prettyfrtnt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:43 am
hilink73 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:25 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm First day of good news in weeks....
1) Italy death curve inflected early!! Free western society might not get hammer
Unfortunately, that's old news.
After two days of decline, we have over 700 deaths today.
You’re wrong. We have three days below the peak. AHEAD of expected 18 day peak after the March 9 lockdown. This peak is day 13. The inflection coming early. AND you need more than one day below the peak to be statistically significant. Now you have three!! Western societies will be able to lock this down. It is extraordinary news.
The lockdown in the part of Italy where the majority of deaths have occurred began on February 21. By your count that's 29 days to the peak. I expect the number to stay in the current range for another week or so as the decrease in Lombardy is offset by the continuing rise in the rest of the country.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by EnjoyIt »

M.Lee wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 am With respect to the benefit of the non-infected wearing masks, I realize the CDC and WHO says we shouldn't wear them and they don't help. We can choose to believe them, or not. I don't. There is some interesting data on mask wearing in this video link I've provided below. I have not vetted out the sources yet, but some appear to be non-quacks. I just happen to have some N95's that I bought long before the virus. I'll be wearing one the next time I go to the super market because I am in that critical 20% group.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JH04M0 ... e=youtu.be
I have no symptoms, I work in a hospital with patients who may have COVID. When I leave my house I wear a mask to protect the public from me.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
staxchips
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:02 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by staxchips »

We were at 300+ deaths last week here in the U.S. now we’re at 890 as im typing this. The virus is not showing signs of slowing down, in fact, the opposite. It’s infecting and killing faster by the day.

Therefore, I think the stimulus package will not be enough, in the long run, to mitigate the decline of the stock market. There will be more lockdowns paired with even longer lockdowns which will lead to less revenue and more debt, which will lead to more unemployment. I think a proven vaccine or cure is what both the US and World economy needs right now.

To conclude, I think further decline in the stock market in the next 3-6 months is inevitable unless a proven vaccine or cure comes up.
webbie90
Posts: 77
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by webbie90 »

Alex Frakt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:50 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:43 am
hilink73 wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:25 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:44 pm First day of good news in weeks....
1) Italy death curve inflected early!! Free western society might not get hammer
Unfortunately, that's old news.
After two days of decline, we have over 700 deaths today.
You’re wrong. We have three days below the peak. AHEAD of expected 18 day peak after the March 9 lockdown. This peak is day 13. The inflection coming early. AND you need more than one day below the peak to be statistically significant. Now you have three!! Western societies will be able to lock this down. It is extraordinary news.
The lockdown in the part of Italy where the majority of deaths have occurred began on February 21. By your count that's 29 days to the peak. I expect the number to stay in the current range for another week or so as the decrease in Lombardy is offset by the continuing rise in the rest of the country.
It looks like China is planning to to end its lockdown in Wuhan on April 8, which will add up to a 2.5 month shutdown. Even if recent community transmission there is near zero (at least according to China's reports), there seems to still be a lot of uncertainty whether this thing will be reignited when people go about their normal lives, especially with many imported cases now appearing.
technovelist
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by technovelist »

beth65 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:51 pm Nobody has addressed why we should be heading to a major recession or depression, even with the virus and quarantines, if we are coming off what was supposedly the "best economy ever". We supposedly had historically low employment rates, valuations were completely detached from reality, and yet companies don't have enough liquidity for 3-6 months, despite the huge tax cuts that many of them received in 2018? Maybe our addiction to cheap debt will screw us over more than any virus.
You can kick the can only so far down the road until it goes off a cliff.
This may have been the trigger.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
beth65
Posts: 174
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by beth65 »

technovelist wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:17 pm
beth65 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:51 pm Nobody has addressed why we should be heading to a major recession or depression, even with the virus and quarantines, if we are coming off what was supposedly the "best economy ever". We supposedly had historically low employment rates, valuations were completely detached from reality, and yet companies don't have enough liquidity for 3-6 months, despite the huge tax cuts that many of them received in 2018? Maybe our addiction to cheap debt will screw us over more than any virus.
You can kick the can only so far down the road until it goes off a cliff.
This may have been the trigger.
I think that we had a lot of bubbles looking for a pin, and they found a huge needle of Covid-19.

I am still surprised people aren’t pulling out the pitchforks demanding that companies that used tax breaks for share buybacks shouldn’t be permitted to receive any aid or bailout. But 2008 happened, and no one went to jail, and nothing really changed, so I guess I’m not that surprised.
M.Lee
Posts: 174
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Location: New Jersey

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by M.Lee »

EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:59 pm
M.Lee wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 am With respect to the benefit of the non-infected wearing masks, I realize the CDC and WHO says we shouldn't wear them and they don't help. We can choose to believe them, or not. I don't. There is some interesting data on mask wearing in this video link I've provided below. I have not vetted out the sources yet, but some appear to be non-quacks. I just happen to have some N95's that I bought long before the virus. I'll be wearing one the next time I go to the super market because I am in that critical 20% group.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JH04M0 ... e=youtu.be
I have no symptoms, I work in a hospital with patients who may have COVID. When I leave my house I wear a mask to protect the public from me.
If everyone wore a mask, we'd be safer then, right? Because, the asymptomatic people can infect others.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by EnjoyIt »

M.Lee wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:50 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:59 pm
M.Lee wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 am With respect to the benefit of the non-infected wearing masks, I realize the CDC and WHO says we shouldn't wear them and they don't help. We can choose to believe them, or not. I don't. There is some interesting data on mask wearing in this video link I've provided below. I have not vetted out the sources yet, but some appear to be non-quacks. I just happen to have some N95's that I bought long before the virus. I'll be wearing one the next time I go to the super market because I am in that critical 20% group.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JH04M0 ... e=youtu.be
I have no symptoms, I work in a hospital with patients who may have COVID. When I leave my house I wear a mask to protect the public from me.
If everyone wore a mask, we'd be safer then, right? Because, the asymptomatic people can infect others.
That is the way I understand it.

You put 10 people in a room with 1 person who is contagious. In this scenario you are far better off putting the mask on the contagious person as opposed to putting a mask on the 10 healthy.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
McDougal
Posts: 557
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:42 pm
Location: Atlanta

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by McDougal »

EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:04 pm
M.Lee wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:50 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:59 pm
M.Lee wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 am With respect to the benefit of the non-infected wearing masks, I realize the CDC and WHO says we shouldn't wear them and they don't help. We can choose to believe them, or not. I don't. There is some interesting data on mask wearing in this video link I've provided below. I have not vetted out the sources yet, but some appear to be non-quacks. I just happen to have some N95's that I bought long before the virus. I'll be wearing one the next time I go to the super market because I am in that critical 20% group.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JH04M0 ... e=youtu.be
I have no symptoms, I work in a hospital with patients who may have COVID. When I leave my house I wear a mask to protect the public from me.
If everyone wore a mask, we'd be safer then, right? Because, the asymptomatic people can infect others.
That is the way I understand it.

You put 10 people in a room with 1 person who is contagious. In this scenario you are far better off putting the mask on the contagious person as opposed to putting a mask on the 10 healthy.
Sure, if you actually had a mask.
rkhusky
Posts: 17763
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:09 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky »

SteadyOne wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:01 pm
rkhusky wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:08 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:03 pm People in general tend to make poor decisions. In the interest of the greater public health sometimes decisions need to made for them. Smoking in a restaurant for example. What about when your decisions have a negative effect on my health?
My decision to go eat at a restaurant or visit my family doesn't affect you. The restaurant does not need to serve me. My family can tell me to stay away.
And if you are infected with pneumonic plague or small pox? Or Ebola?
That could have happened before coronavirus every appeared. When you go into a restaurant you have no idea whether the cook or the server or other guests or whoever sat in your chair before you have/had a communicable disease. Food workers are generally tested for some diseases, but I doubt they are tested for Ebola or small pox or the Bubonic plague or influenza. I imagine each state has their own rules. The same goes for people walking down the street or in the grocery store or at the gym or in the airport. When you go out in public you are taking a risk. And when you visit vulnerable people afterwards, you risk bringing all those things in and infecting them. All that has not changed because of coronavirus and will not after the coronavirus has been vanquished.
folkher0
Posts: 912
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 »

KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:56 pm
framus wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:49 pm

A significant help in opening up the shutdown would be a test that would enable determination that a person had developed immunity to the pathogen. This would enable these folks to re-engage in commerce and not be contamination vectors. Mario Cuomo has articulated how such an approach could be established.
frames,

In another word, more and better testing. In contrast to the "no testing and assume everyone will be infected" approach. Aka, just send everyone back to work and hope for the best.

KlangFool
Klangfool,

I want to thank you for many of your posts. You are one of the reasons we rent our house and haven’t bought. The economic scenario we are entering is echoed in many of your posts.

In regards to testing: it’s just not good enough yet. It’s been reported that the negative predictive value of the tests we use (PCR of nasal swabs) has a negative predictive value of about 60%. That means a patient WHO HAS THE DISEASE will test negative about 40% of the time.

it’s just just good enough, fast enough or widely enough available to reliably rule out COVID at the population level.

When you remind yourself that 14 days ago we had no test at all in the US, it’s remarkable how far we’ve come.

When you remind yourself that WHO already had a test available and South Korea was able to screen tens of thousands of people before the first test was done in the US, you begin to understand how far behind the curve we are.
technovelist
Posts: 3611
Joined: Wed Dec 30, 2009 8:02 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by technovelist »

beth65 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:22 pm
technovelist wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:17 pm
beth65 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:51 pm Nobody has addressed why we should be heading to a major recession or depression, even with the virus and quarantines, if we are coming off what was supposedly the "best economy ever". We supposedly had historically low employment rates, valuations were completely detached from reality, and yet companies don't have enough liquidity for 3-6 months, despite the huge tax cuts that many of them received in 2018? Maybe our addiction to cheap debt will screw us over more than any virus.
You can kick the can only so far down the road until it goes off a cliff.
This may have been the trigger.
I think that we had a lot of bubbles looking for a pin, and they found a huge needle of Covid-19.

I am still surprised people aren’t pulling out the pitchforks demanding that companies that used tax breaks for share buybacks shouldn’t be permitted to receive any aid or bailout. But 2008 happened, and no one went to jail, and nothing really changed, so I guess I’m not that surprised.
Yes, sadly.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
ebrasmus21
Posts: 348
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:06 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ebrasmus21 »

beth65 wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:51 pm Nobody has addressed why we should be heading to a major recession or depression, even with the virus and quarantines, if we are coming off what was supposedly the "best economy ever". We supposedly had historically low employment rates, valuations were completely detached from reality, and yet companies don't have enough liquidity for 3-6 months, despite the huge tax cuts that many of them received in 2018? Maybe our addiction to cheap debt will screw us over more than any virus.

I live in a red state where people still aren't believing that this is a problem, and that asking them to stay home on their couch and watch Netflix and get their deliveries to their door is infringing upon their rights to go spend money that they won't have (due to this impending recession/depression) at a bar. Which is it? Is the virus no big deal and everything is fine, or do we need government bailouts for corporations that have no fiscal responsibility, and will still find a way to lay off workers for "cost cutting" after getting their handout/interest-free loan from the govt.
Just curious when did we have a better economy and when had unemployment been lower?
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