New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

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Ben Mathew
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Ben Mathew »

mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:24 am I am forever grateful for this community and all of its moderators and admins for being so invaluable on my financial journey. And I recognize and respect that this is a private space, allowed to be shaped by the desires and vision of those who run it. Thank you all.

I very humbly want to add a bit of perspective. A community like Bogleheads could not and would not have existed prior to "Common Stocks as Long Term Investments" - published in 1924. Bonds were the way, and stocks were risky - even surely similar to tulips to some. But as the world evolved, an understanding of what stocks "really" were changed as well. A few decades later we had modern portfolio theory and you'd be questioned if you didn't include common stocks in a portfolio.

It is not impossible that all of the issues mentioned with crypto are transitory growing pains on the way to a truly fundamental change in the financial world. Looking deeply at the DeFi space in particular, it looks a lot like the stock market was a century ago, before it was "safe."

Of course, you would've done okay with a never-changing bond portfolio held from the 1920s onward, but you would lag far behind those that knew the financial world was evolving.

If there's even a possibility that this perspective turns out to be correct, I think the world needs as enlightened a place as Bogleheads to discuss (not trade) it.
Even if a cryptocurrency changes the financial world and becomes the default unit of transactions, there would be no reason to invest in it. It would quietly work in the background as a good currency should, maintain a stable value, and help facilitate routine transactions. It should be about as boring as a checking account.

That vision is clearly not what is driving the current cryptocurrency mania. Bitcoin was set up to increase in value after the the initial investors got in at low cost. The rules behind Bitcoin generation suggests a pyramid scheme, not a stable currency. And the subsequent mania driven by price increases support that.
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vitaflo
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by vitaflo »

willthrill81 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:47 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:43 am
willthrill81 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:35 am While I don't own any crypto, censorship of ideas is something that disturbs me.
The forum does it all the time when it comes to politics and religion, and is all the better for it.
Neither politics nor religion are financial assets. Crypto is, at least according to the IRS.
And I'm going to guess if someone had a question about tax treatment of their crypto sales it would be allowed, just like if someone had a question about tax treatment of lottery winnings. But we're not allowed to discuss the lottery as an investing strategy. I don't see the problem here.
Last edited by vitaflo on Wed May 19, 2021 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by dukeblue219 »

Thinking about it some more, I think focus on the investing philosophy of Jack Bogle is the best way to stop the excessive crypto posting.

Personally, I don't like the characterization as a "greater fool" investment strategy; while I don't disagree entirely, it feels antagonistic and puts BH in the position of strongly advocating against crypto. By all means ban crypto for the purposes of maintaining the forum as it is, but the wording here seems to be taking more of a direct position than I expected.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Ramjet »

If polls weren't banned we could have a poll on if we should ban crypto :oops:

Just kidding
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by 50/50 »

This change won't bother me a bit. I never read them in the first place.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by txhill »

dukeblue219 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:14 am Thinking about it some more, I think focus on the investing philosophy of Jack Bogle is the best way to stop the excessive crypto posting.

Personally, I don't like the characterization as a "greater fool" investment strategy; while I don't disagree entirely, it feels antagonistic and puts BH in the position of strongly advocating against crypto. By all means ban crypto for the purposes of maintaining the forum as it is, but the wording here seems to be taking more of a direct position than I expected.
This exactly. The latest post by a moderator is really attempting to impose a specific point of view:
Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:41 am My first draft of the rule included a reference to Beanie Babies. This led to a short discussion over collectibles and fine art and I dropped the wording.

Speaking of wording, LadyGeek doesn't like the inclusion of "tulip bulbs", but I left it in because it's a shorthand for something every investor should know about. If they don't, then I can at least hope they will look it up. IMO, the only difference between tulipomania and cryptomania is that economic growth and technological advances in the past 400 years have allowed millions of people around the world to participate in the folly instead of a couple of thousand wealthy Dutchmen.
Alex's view is very understandable as it relates to bitcoin and dogecoin and MOST of the crypto space. But to lump all crypto assets in the same bucket reflects a poor understanding of the space (some of which is productive, revenue-generating, and has existing and growing use cases in finance and other applications). I fear that taking an active stance like this doesn't reflect well on the board.

It seems that it is perfectly legitimate to ban/limit crypto discussions if they're (1) giving the false impression that BH is a proponent of crypto investments or (2) crowding out discussion on less risky investments. But if BH is taking the active stance that all of crypto is no different than tulips--I fear that's something that will be looked on in 10 years as a very myopic view.

Overall I am understanding of the new policy but I just think it should be framed from a more neutral perspective.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Alex Frakt »

mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:24 am I very humbly want to add a bit of perspective. A community like Bogleheads could not and would not have existed prior to "Common Stocks as Long Term Investments" - published in 1924. Bonds were the way, and stocks were risky - even surely similar to tulips to some. But as the world evolved, an understanding of what stocks "really" were changed as well. A few decades later we had modern portfolio theory and you'd be questioned if you didn't include common stocks in a portfolio.

It is not impossible that all of the issues mentioned with crypto are transitory growing pains on the way to a truly fundamental change in the financial world. Looking deeply at the DeFi space in particular, it looks a lot like the stock market was a century ago, before it was "safe."
No it doesn't. Stock were certainly much riskier prior to the regulatory reforms of the 1930s. But, unlike today, buyers generally demanded compensation for taking on these risks in the form of dividend yields much greater than bond yields. In fact, many market observers used dividend yields as a bubble predictor, getting out or shorting equity markets when yields dropped below certain benchmarks, either absolute or relative to bond yields.

And of course stock ownership gives you rights, albeit attenuated for minor shareholders, in the governance of the company as well as a claim on any assets from the sale or liquidation of the underlying company.

None of this applies to crypto investing. They have no yields and ownership gives you no rights.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by vanbogle59 »

Ben Mathew wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:13 am That vision is clearly not what is driving the current cryptocurrency mania. Bitcoin was set up to increase in value after the the initial investors got in at low cost. The rules behind Bitcoin generation suggests a pyramid scheme, not a stable currency. And the subsequent mania driven by price increases support that.
I think I need to go get coffee.
If this board becomes a place where statements like this are taken as irrefutable (NO DISSENT ALLOWED!)...
Well, that would just be a shame.

Full disclosure: I think moderators are a gift from God. Thank you.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Stinky »

Ramjet wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:14 am If polls weren't banned we could have a poll on if we should ban crypto :oops:

Just kidding
I think that responses to this thread are a poll of sorts.

My unscientific view of the 150+ posts so far is that there is very strong, but not overwhelming, support for the new policy.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by txhill »

Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:21 am
mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:24 am I very humbly want to add a bit of perspective. A community like Bogleheads could not and would not have existed prior to "Common Stocks as Long Term Investments" - published in 1924. Bonds were the way, and stocks were risky - even surely similar to tulips to some. But as the world evolved, an understanding of what stocks "really" were changed as well. A few decades later we had modern portfolio theory and you'd be questioned if you didn't include common stocks in a portfolio.

It is not impossible that all of the issues mentioned with crypto are transitory growing pains on the way to a truly fundamental change in the financial world. Looking deeply at the DeFi space in particular, it looks a lot like the stock market was a century ago, before it was "safe."
No it doesn't. Stock were certainly much riskier prior to the regulatory reforms of the 1930s. But, unlike today, buyers generally demanded compensation for taking on these risks in the form of dividend yields much greater than bond yields. In fact, many market observers used dividend yields as a bubble predictor, getting out or shorting equity markets when yields dropped below certain benchmarks, either absolute or relative to bond yields.

And of course stock ownership gives you rights, albeit attenuated for minor shareholders, in the governance of the company as well as a claim on any assets from the sale or liquidation of the underlying company.

None of this applies to crypto investing. They have no yields and ownership gives you no rights.
Alex, this is not correct for all crypto assets. If you take something like AAVE for example, ownership of the token gives you ownership of the protocol (and governance over decisions relating to the protocol)--just like a stock. AAVE is essentially a protocol-driven bank (people lend and borrow dollars on it) and collects revenue that is distributed among stakeholders (i.e., generating a yield). You could calculate a DCF based valuation of AAVE.

What you are describing is true for most crypto tokens like Bitcoin and Dogecoin. Those are purely speculative instruments. And based on that alone it might make sense to ban or limit crypto discussion. But I think precision is probably called for in the wording of the ban.

EDIT TO ADD: I fully appreciate the amount of effort and thought that goes into moderating these forums. Totally understand and support a ban on crypto discussions (although I'd prefer a limitation to one thread rather than a total ban). I just think that misinformation can cut both ways so I would hope we avoid that in the wording of the ban.
Last edited by txhill on Wed May 19, 2021 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Alex Frakt »

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:06 am...I personally have a different opinion on blockchain technology and crypto currency. And I separate crypto into two different uses, Investment and transfer. I see the value in crypto as a transfer mechanism, but todays 20%+ drop makes western unions fees for transfer look small.
Discussions of crypto as a transfer mechanism and blockchain as a software tool are not affected by this rule.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Kookaburra »

qwertyjazz wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 7:22 am Any possibility of a wiki page as to the logic? I have learned a lot by reading people’s response to crypto.
viewtopic.php?p=6002077#p6002077
Nisiprius’ recent response solidified a lot about not only how I can think about crypto but also about the next alt investment which will come up at some point in the future.
I agree with this decision in general. But aspects of the crypto discussion, and in particular nisiprius’ post, were vital in helping me understand the risks. Rather than simply labeling it a “greater fool scheme”, nisiprius articulated in detail why it should be approach with extreme caution. And it ultimately helped me decide to not wade into the crypto market. There is rampant FOMO out there, and lots of newbies are buying (I read one post where high school kids were buying!). If our intent is to help folks understand, be educated/informed, and get steered in the right direction, perhaps maintaining a a post or wiki link with some education on risks of crypto and why Bogleheads shun it is more appropriate than an outright ban under the label of “greater fool theory.” Perhaps there is a way to include a caption at the top of the forum (similar to the “read this before posting about coronavirus”) about the policy, Jack Bogle’s view on crypto, a link to more info in the wiki, and to include nisiprius’ brilliant post in some form.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by ResearchMed »

First, many thanks, once again, to all of the "moderator types" of all stripes! :wink:
YOU are what make this Forum hum, and keep it as a non-hostile and extraordinarily helpful forum about many aspects of finance.

That all includes "non-investing" topics as well, such as life and liability-type insurance, disability insurance, social security claiming strategies, and some useful and important consumer financial issues.

I'm sure it seems at times to be an endless and occasionally (??) thankless job.

As for "crypto discussions", I'll leave it up to those same special souls.
I don't have any crypto [*] directly, and don't trust 'em.
But there are other topics here that would fit that two-part description, and I have no objection to those (none that I am yet aware of, anyway).

If the mods as a group feel that the crypto discussions have become too potentially harmful, particularly for the less experienced, then that's good enough for me (NOT an approach I usually take, to put it mildly).
I haven't read most of the crypto threads, and have no plans to do so. Therefore, it's hard for me to make an informed decision about the content.

IF there is a way (and a use or need!) to include some specific characteristic of crypto, such as the previously mentioned Shariah-compliant issues about investing while not including more general religious topics, that would seem to work.
However, I have absolutely no idea if there is or could be some subset of crypto that would be useful and appropriate.

[*] We have no crypto directly, unless there is some hidden within some mutual funds or ETFs, which is a slightly disturbing thought... and gwe67 pointed out below that of course, we do indeed have just this - at least some crypto within funds. :annoyed

RM
Last edited by ResearchMed on Wed May 19, 2021 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by watchnerd »

mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:24 am I am forever grateful for this community and all of its moderators and admins for being so invaluable on my financial journey. And I recognize and respect that this is a private space, allowed to be shaped by the desires and vision of those who run it. Thank you all.

I very humbly want to add a bit of perspective. A community like Bogleheads could not and would not have existed prior to "Common Stocks as Long Term Investments" - published in 1924. Bonds were the way, and stocks were risky - even surely similar to tulips to some. But as the world evolved, an understanding of what stocks "really" were changed as well. A few decades later we had modern portfolio theory and you'd be questioned if you didn't include common stocks in a portfolio.

It is not impossible that all of the issues mentioned with crypto are transitory growing pains on the way to a truly fundamental change in the financial world. Looking deeply at the DeFi space in particular, it looks a lot like the stock market was a century ago, before it was "safe."

Of course, you would've done okay with a never-changing bond portfolio held from the 1920s onward, but you would lag far behind those that knew the financial world was evolving.

If there's even a possibility that this perspective turns out to be correct, I think the world needs as enlightened a place as Bogleheads to discuss (not trade) it.
This possible outcome is why I'm holding crypto at global market weight.

If it evolves as you describe, as I suspect it will, capital will begin to shift over time. Holding at market weight means my portfolio will capture that, if it happens.

However, this may not happen at all.

And I can respect why the forum does not want to be on the bleeding edge of this possibility, especially in the current immature and Wild West state of the crypto market.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Gort »

Thank you! For all the criticism I received for starting the following thread, it's nice to see the compass pointing straight ahead again...
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=337988
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by KlangFool »

Ben Mathew wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:13 am
mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:24 am I am forever grateful for this community and all of its moderators and admins for being so invaluable on my financial journey. And I recognize and respect that this is a private space, allowed to be shaped by the desires and vision of those who run it. Thank you all.

I very humbly want to add a bit of perspective. A community like Bogleheads could not and would not have existed prior to "Common Stocks as Long Term Investments" - published in 1924. Bonds were the way, and stocks were risky - even surely similar to tulips to some. But as the world evolved, an understanding of what stocks "really" were changed as well. A few decades later we had modern portfolio theory and you'd be questioned if you didn't include common stocks in a portfolio.

It is not impossible that all of the issues mentioned with crypto are transitory growing pains on the way to a truly fundamental change in the financial world. Looking deeply at the DeFi space in particular, it looks a lot like the stock market was a century ago, before it was "safe."

Of course, you would've done okay with a never-changing bond portfolio held from the 1920s onward, but you would lag far behind those that knew the financial world was evolving.

If there's even a possibility that this perspective turns out to be correct, I think the world needs as enlightened a place as Bogleheads to discuss (not trade) it.
Even if a cryptocurrency changes the financial world and becomes the default unit of transactions, there would be no reason to invest in it.
Ben Mathew,

Even if that is true, the cryptocurrency survive and thrive may not be any cryptocurrency that you bought and invest at this moment. This is the problem with any new technological innovation.

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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by hornet96 »

Actin wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:53 am .... but it has drowned out discussion on every other finance board on the net.
I have CNBC on during the day. It's all they've been talking about all morning. It's drowning out the discussion of anything anyone in finance seems to care to talk about. It's pretty hard to "freely discuss ideas" or whatever the supposed anti-censorship zealots want to claim, when one singular idea permeates every single discussion being had.

And those stupid Greyscale bitcoin trust commercials where the lady screams as she falls off the building holding some guy's bitcoin token, play at least 50 times a day.

Crypto mania has gotten way over the top. The founder of this forum understandably doesn't want this to become yet another repository for the spread of that mania, which I respect and support.

Some others have mentioned that the underlying technology (blockchain) is legitimate, which I agree with. However, I'd suspect that the vast majority of crypto threads around here weren't focused on that aspect.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by ruralavalon »

Outstanding decision in my opinion :D .
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by rob »

Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:41 am IMO, the only difference between tulipomania and cryptomania is that economic growth and technological advances in the past 400 years have allowed millions of people around the world to participate in the folly instead of a couple of thousand wealthy Dutchmen.
Your probably right... or maybe countries disappear and there is one world crypto currency.... I think banning discussion of the security itself is an issue.... the current rules stop illegal/immoral & political (at least some people's view of those) discussion so why not manage via that existing mechanism.

Ironically enough the highest recent and continuing posts by count are about DAILY market activity on a forum that says it's principles are about long term etc etc.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by YRT70 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:32 am This possible outcome is why I'm holding crypto at global market weight.
Do you know any other good places to discuss crypto at similar level as here? I'm not a fan of Reddit.

The Rational Reminder forum has one thread for crypto. Works fine of course.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by TN_Boy »

Stinky wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:26 am
Ramjet wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:14 am If polls weren't banned we could have a poll on if we should ban crypto :oops:

Just kidding
I think that responses to this thread are a poll of sorts.

My unscientific view of the 150+ posts so far is that there is very strong, but not overwhelming, support for the new policy.
I understand why the mods are doing this, but I've found some of the crypto threads interesting and educational so I'm disappointed with the decision (I do not invest in anything crypto at this point in time).
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by mbasherp »

Ben Mathew wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:13 am
Even if a cryptocurrency changes the financial world and becomes the default unit of transactions, there would be no reason to invest in it. It would quietly work in the background as a good currency should, maintain a stable value, and help facilitate routine transactions. It should be about as boring as a checking account.

That vision is clearly not what is driving the current cryptocurrency mania. Bitcoin was set up to increase in value after the the initial investors got in at low cost. The rules behind Bitcoin generation suggests a pyramid scheme, not a stable currency. And the subsequent mania driven by price increases support that.
May I point out that my post (which you replied to) was primarily about the power of the DeFi space? There is a LOT more going on than people buying and selling Bitcoin. This isn’t just “coins” in a transactional sense. Holding some of these makes you stakeholder, allowing protocol governance decisions, sometimes entitling your to a yield, etc. VERY similar to a stock. Are you aware of all these things?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by KlangFool »

Mods,

I filed patents on blockchain application. I support the forum policy. It is beyond the scope of the forum. In order to understand the cryptocurrency and guessing which one may or may not survive and thrive, it required substantial technical background and that may still be not enough.

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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by ResearchMed »

Kookaburra wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:28 am
qwertyjazz wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 7:22 am Any possibility of a wiki page as to the logic? I have learned a lot by reading people’s response to crypto.
viewtopic.php?p=6002077#p6002077
Nisiprius’ recent response solidified a lot about not only how I can think about crypto but also about the next alt investment which will come up at some point in the future.
I agree with this decision in general. But aspects of the crypto discussion, and in particular nisiprius’ post, were vital in helping me understand the risks. Rather than simply labeling it a “greater fool scheme”, nisiprius articulated in detail why it should be approach with extreme caution. And it ultimately helped me decide to not wade into the crypto market. There is rampant FOMO out there, and lots of newbies are buying (I read one post where high school kids were buying!). If our intent is to help folks understand, be educated/informed, and get steered in the right direction, perhaps maintaining a a post or wiki link with some education on risks of crypto and why Bogleheads shun it is more appropriate than an outright ban under the label of “greater fool theory.” Perhaps there is a way to include a caption at the top of the forum (similar to the “read this before posting about coronavirus”) about the policy, Jack Bogle’s view on crypto, a link to more info in the wiki, and to include nisiprius’ brilliant post in some form.
Aha.
Precisely because I have NOT following much at all about crypto, I missed Nisi's post on that other thread.
It is remarkable.
He addresses many of the issues, in a sober way, without heading in super negative or positive directions.
[And are 17 edits any kind of a record here on BH? :wink: They were apparently all very worthwhile!]

I agree that it would be very helpful if there were some way to have a very obvious link to it.

RM
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by baconavocado »

Great decision. Seems like I'm seeing more and more posts that look like they're from "investment" salesmen. The only thing missing is their business card.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by surfstar »

Just want to thank the mods for the thankless job that they do here :beer
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by brokendirtdart »

Pretty strange that something which has been discussed on this board since at least 2015* is now wrongthink and verboten. Slippery slope.

To the posters that say there are tons of other place to discuss crypto-why should they join another board when it is already being discussed here? There are less crypto threads than there are threads on what bond index fund do I choose to follow x index. There seems to be a lot of gloating going on by those who don't like crypto.

I don't own crypto, don't play with options, didn't care about the GME thing, and have never participated in those threads so it doesn't affect me in any way. IMO the board is going in the wrong direction if it is going back in time and cancelling long discussed topics.

Oh well, their roof, their rules. I guess we'll go back to the regularly scheduled kvetching about Vanguard CS and pontificating whether or not one should have 23.7 or 23.9 percent of their portfolio in international.

*2015 is as far back as I was will to search for crypto.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Kookaburra »

rob wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:44 am Ironically enough the highest recent and continuing posts by count are about DAILY market activity on a forum that says it's principles are about long term etc etc.
This is a valid point. The “stocks are soaring” and “stocks in free fall” posts also do not fit the criteria of being personable and actionable, so yea the rules are bent here and there. My understanding is they were allowed to remain as a consolidated thread for people to “blow off” their daily musings of the market. In that vein, maybe there should be allowed a single post/thread about crypto where people can “go nuts” on all things crypto (within the same rules governing the stocks threads).
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by mbasherp »

Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:21 am
mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:24 am I very humbly want to add a bit of perspective. A community like Bogleheads could not and would not have existed prior to "Common Stocks as Long Term Investments" - published in 1924. Bonds were the way, and stocks were risky - even surely similar to tulips to some. But as the world evolved, an understanding of what stocks "really" were changed as well. A few decades later we had modern portfolio theory and you'd be questioned if you didn't include common stocks in a portfolio.

It is not impossible that all of the issues mentioned with crypto are transitory growing pains on the way to a truly fundamental change in the financial world. Looking deeply at the DeFi space in particular, it looks a lot like the stock market was a century ago, before it was "safe."
No it doesn't. Stock were certainly much riskier prior to the regulatory reforms of the 1930s. But, unlike today, buyers generally demanded compensation for taking on these risks in the form of dividend yields much greater than bond yields. In fact, many market observers used dividend yields as a bubble predictor, getting out or shorting equity markets when yields dropped below certain benchmarks, either absolute or relative to bond yields.

And of course stock ownership gives you rights, albeit attenuated for minor shareholders, in the governance of the company as well as a claim on any assets from the sale or liquidation of the underlying company.

None of this applies to crypto investing. They have no yields and ownership gives you no rights.
Alex, once again thank you for what you do. I’ll just point out humbly, once again, that your statement is not correct. Another user already iterated this well before me in the case of Aave. It is not the only one. Not all crypto is Dogecoin or Bitcoin - many of these do indeed confer ownership, governance rights, and offer yields.

I am not some manic crypto bull - but I feel it is vitally important to learn about what is emerging, to identify misinformation, and make informed choices. Bogleheads has always been the best place I’ve found for that. So thanks again. It just appears that this might be a blind spot for some of us.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Dottie57 »

AerialWombat wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 1:56 am I, for one, am happy to see this action taken.

Kudos to the Advisory Board! :sharebeer
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Kookaburra »

I’m curious: if a crypto ETF becomes available (which seems inevitable), will that be off-limits for discussion?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Doom&Gloom »

I never understood how this topic fit into the mission of this site. BH forum should not be a catch-all for any topic involving financial matters imo. There is certainly no shortage of places to discuss cryptocurrencies. Of course I never understood cryptocurrency anyway, so ...
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Elric »

ensign_lee wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 7:07 am I disagree with this strongly. While I agree that there were probably too many individual threads about it, banning the discussion of crypto wholesale seems like too strong of a reaction.

Perhaps just limiting it to one thread would be the best course of action?

That being said, bogleheads is a private website that can do whatever it wishes, so...
:thumbsup Hear hear! This move is well-intentioned but misguided, moving along a path of turning the diverse Bogleheads community forum (which shares INSPIRATION, not dogma, from Jack Bogle) into an echo chamber. I sincerely hope the Advisory Board reconsiders.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by ScubaHogg »

Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 1:46 am In a very real sense, crypto tokens are already bankrupt. They have a literal value of nothing, they have a future value of nothing. Thus their price depends entirely on whether enough people are willing to ignore this fact and exchange real money for nothing. The only basis for buying them is the hope the the price will go up because it has gone up before.
Even though I've held some crypto for years at this point, this policy doesn't really bother me since you couldn't really have a meaningful discussion on here about crypto anyway.

But I have to ask, if the above is the justification are we going to ban discussion of gold as well? For all practical purposes, it's value is in no way tied to any "literal value" (whatever in the world that means)? And if we aren't, what's the justification? Just cause it's been around longer? And if that's the reason, how many years does crypto need to be around before it can be discussed again?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Elric »

Ramjet wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 7:25 am
SethJane42 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 7:21 am Such discussion has helped me stay away from crypto, as I've learned a great deal about it from people here. Free flow of ideas and opinion about investments is always better.
Exactly! It works both ways. Discussion does not mean people will flock to do it, quite the opposite sometimes actually
Agree!!! I learned a lot, for example, about what was going on with GameStop from this forum, and I appreciate the perspectives of the Bogleheads community, who mostly are indeed inspired by the views of Jack Bogle, not cultists who worship his every word and believe all else is heresy. This forum should not become an echo chamber.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by TN_Boy »

KlangFool wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:49 am Mods,

I filed patents on blockchain application. I support the forum policy. It is beyond the scope of the forum. In order to understand the cryptocurrency and guessing which one may or may not survive and thrive, it required substantial technical background and that may still be not enough.

KlangFool
I don't think a substantial technical background is required to understand crypto currency. It helps one understand why bitcoin (and similar blockchain implementations) are so terrible for everyday transactions, but understanding the broader implications of cryptocurrencies is not, I think, limited to techies. Plus, the superior technical solution does not always triumph.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Alex Frakt »

txhill wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:27 am Alex, this is not correct for all crypto assets. If you take something like AAVE for example, ownership of the token gives you ownership of the protocol (and governance over decisions relating to the protocol)--just like a stock. AAVE is essentially a protocol-driven bank (people lend and borrow dollars on it) and collects revenue that is distributed among stakeholders (i.e., generating a yield). You could calculate a DCF based valuation of AAVE.
The market/exchange functions are certainly interesting, but the underlying tokens are still inherently valueless except, if I understand this correctly, for a potential claim on the future commercialization of the market/exchange functions.

This particular aspect might not be covered by the ban. The Advisory Board will look at this as we review the feedback on this thread.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by jibantik »

ScubaHogg wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:04 am
Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 1:46 am In a very real sense, crypto tokens are already bankrupt. They have a literal value of nothing, they have a future value of nothing. Thus their price depends entirely on whether enough people are willing to ignore this fact and exchange real money for nothing. The only basis for buying them is the hope the the price will go up because it has gone up before.
Even though I've held some crypto for years at this point, this policy doesn't really bother me since you couldn't really have a meaningful discussion on here about crypto anyway.

But I have to ask, if the above is the justification are we going to ban discussion of gold as well? For all practical purposes, it's value is in no way tied to any "literal value" (whatever in the world that means)? And if we aren't, what's the justification? Just cause it's been around longer? And if that's the reason, how many years does crypto need to be around before it can be discussed again?
It seems like this ban is rooted in personal dislike and bias. Personally, I probably agree with the mods viewpoints on crypto, but that doesn't mean I think the discussion of it should be banned... Seems like a lot of people want to ban discussion of something simply because they disagree with it.

While I think we all would largely agree that holding a large portion of crypto doesn't fall into a boglehead-style portfolio, we all have different interpretations of what a boglehead-style portfolio is. Moreover, I have seen many posters on here who DO hold precious metals. Is holding crypto vs precious metals THAT different? Is having a small portion of play money in crypto that absurd for a financial forum?

I don't see how we can logically ban crypto but not precious metal discussion.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Impatience »

I think the “advisory board” and general bogle wisdom will be proven wrong in the end re: crypto but I still mostly welcome the change. There have been some really good, serious, levelheaded discussions here regarding crypto despite the high level of noise, especially compared to other sites, so I’ll miss those exchanges. But it was clear that the sheer volume of topics and noise was becoming a problem.

IMO crypto should have its own containment sub forum and topics there should not be shown on the front page roundup.
Last edited by Impatience on Wed May 19, 2021 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Kookaburra »

I love how the crypto market has reacted to todays announcement that it is a tulip fiasco! Thank you mods
Last edited by Kookaburra on Wed May 19, 2021 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by JoeRetire »

KlangFool wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:49 amIn order to understand the cryptocurrency and guessing which one may or may not survive and thrive, it required substantial technical background and that may still be not enough.
On the contrary, guessing requires absolutely no technical background at all.

And like many of the discussions on other topics, folks come here for help with issues for which they lack the background. I don't understand how "background requirements" can be a criterion for banning discussion of anything.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Impatience »

jibantik wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:18 am
I don't see how we can logically ban crypto but not precious metal discussion.
That was my first thought as well. How about non dividend paying stocks while we’re at it?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by JoeRetire »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:02 amBH forum should not be a catch-all for any topic involving financial matters imo.
Why not?

Do you have a generalized statement for the kinds of financial matters that shouldn't be allowed here?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Walkure »

LadyGeek wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 6:04 am Does anyone not understand the policy? I'm concerned that those without an investing background may not understand "negative expected long term return". Or, perhaps why "tulip bulbs" are listed.

As noted by Alex:
Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 1:46 am Note that the exact wording may change as we receive further feedback, but the basic message will not.
If the terminology is unclear, please suggest better wording.

To be clear, we're not crowd-sourcing our policy. It is only to ensure that the terminology of this one change is clearly understood.
I for one object to the explicit inclusion of "tulip bulbs" in this policy. Firstly, because there is no speculative market in tulip bulbs in the present day that anyone might be confused into buying. They are only ever mentioned in conjunction with investing as the canonical example of a cautionary tale in what not to do. Secondly, the exclusion of a specific physical object that does retail for a market price that people really do buy for a specific reason (I planted 75 bulbs in my own yard) only serves to muddy the waters around what the wording is intended to describe. You can't argue that the industrial uses of gold (2/3 of supply) outweigh the gardening uses of tulips (99.9% of supply), so there is no rational basis for saying the policy involves one but not the other.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Elric »

I understand that the Advisory Board is not “crowd-sourcing” forum policy. Your site, you get to make the rules. Nevertheless, as a member of the Bogleheads community I feel the need to speak up to express my sadness, disappointment, and indeed, some anger, at this well-intentioned, but misguided, new policy.

Bogleheads should not be an echo chamber, where only views conforming to bogleheads dogma can be heard. Bogleheads is a place to get the perspective of the (rather diverse) Bogleheads community on many items, from index funds to actively managed funds, the roles of investment advisors and robo-advisors, short trading and short squeezes (yes, GameStop) and crypto. The tagline, Investing Advice INSPIRED by Jack Bogle, is a good one. But if discussion were limited only to his beliefs, any discussion of non-indexed funds (except for Wellesley and Wellington, of course, those active funds get a free pass 😊) or higher cost funds would be prohibited, and based on his later views, so would any discussion of international investments (“unnecessary”). All types of legal investing, including highly speculative ones such as cryptocurrencies, should be permitted. This is a forum inspired by Bogle’s ideas, not a cult with rigid orthodoxy. There are many levels of conformity and non-conformity to Bogle’s views among community members, and this has been, and should continue to be, reflected in the forum. I do not believe anyone reading through the various crypt threads can get the idea that Bogleheads in general support significant investment in crypto, or that it is anything other than speculative. I believe readers, including new readers, will benefit from the perspectives of the Bogleheads community on these topics, which indeed, is that they constitute speculation and likely (no one can be certain) only hold value as a “greater fool” investment. That is the general tone I get when I read these threads, and I value hearing the perspective of the Bogleheads community on these topics. Similarly, I personally learned a great deal from the Bogleheads discussion of GameStop.

LadyGeek states that “We certainly understand that some members own cryptocurrency in their portfolio. Discussions within the context of managing your portfolio make sense to continue the discussion.” How can one have this discussion without discussing crypto as an investment? Can one now only talk of holding or selling, but never buying? Must one say things like, “I plan to increase my allocation in crypto but I’m forbidden by forum policies to express why?” This makes no sense.

I strongly disagree with the new policy and hope that the Advisory Board will reconsider this misguided, albeit well-intentioned, action. There should continue to be a place in this forum to discuss crypto and other legal alternative, indeed, even highly speculative, investments. I, for one, am much more interested in hearing the perspectives of the Bogleheads community on these topics than I am of reading the 1,000th post on 2-fund v. 3-fund portfolios or the role of Vanguard's Personal Advisory Service.

p.s.: Tulip bulbs have underlying value. They continue to be sold today, centuries after the tulip bubble. There was a bubble, where pricing went well beyond their underlying value, but the same has been true for most bubbles, such as the real estate bubble a few years back, and many believe, rightly or wrongly, that this is currently the case for many stocks in total stock funds and the S&P 500. If they are correct, then those holding such investments can only lose unless they find a "greater fool." Nevertheless, like crypto, discussion of such investments should be permitted on this forum.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by diy60 »

Elric wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:06 am snip . . .
Agree!!! I learned a lot, for example, about what was going on with GameStop from this forum, and I appreciate the perspectives of the Bogleheads community, who mostly are indeed inspired by the views of Jack Bogle, not cultists who worship his every word and believe all else is heresy. This forum should not become an echo chamber.
+1 The GME thread was incredibly informative and technical. I'm surprised it wasn't censored.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Valuethinker »

Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 3:16 am
luckyducky99 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 3:01 amI would more prefer a policy prohibiting aggressive promotion of any extremely risky speculation, including crypto, and allow some of the reasonable discussion to continue.
It would be nice to allow limited discussion on these topics. But we have to formulate policies that the moderators can work with. It would not be fair to ask them to make judgement calls on, for example, exactly where enthusiasm turns into promotion.

As to other types of speculation, I think this policy covers the worst of them. For the rest we will continue to rely on our members to educate and, if necessary, warn in their responses.
This is it really, you can't craft a set of rules that simply gets debated by barrack-room-lawyers.

There are places to discuss that type of financial speculation out there. Part of the purpose of this board is to cultivate a "get rich slowly" mentality - savings, low cost investing, indexing strategies etc.

A tip of my hat to Moderators for a difficult decision, well made.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by gwe67 »

ResearchMed wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:31 am

[*] We have no crypto, unless there is some hidden within some mutual funds or ETFs, which is a slightly disturbing thought...

RM
Surely you own Tesla in some form. As of a few weeks ago, Tesla held $2.5 billion in bitcoin (I guess it's $1.98 billion now). Many companies accept crapto as payment and would have at least a nominal stockpile. So the vast majority of index investors do indirectly have a stake in crapto at least in some small way, but we just can't talk about it in this forum (which is a good thing).
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Tattarrattat »

Approve of limiting crypto postings. The tone was becoming too much like Gamestop/Reddit/FOMO/pump-n-dump. Not what this forum should be about. Let it be boring.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by GR8FUL-D »

While I have no doubt that the decision by site admins and mods to ban further crypto threads and posts was carefully considered, the timing of this announcement is almost too coincidental to believe.

I am a crypto-holder, but I agree that there were far too many crypto threads being created, and I can only imagine what a huge headache they were for moderators to manage. 100% agree that this forum would not be nearly as useful without mods!

LadyGeek wrote: "A single crypto thread won't work. The topic is too broad to dump everything into a single thread. The thread would shortly become unusable because you can't figure out what's going on. I agree that one "mega" crypto thread wouldn't work, but I think that three mega threads (i.e., a "Bitcoin Mega Thread", an "Ethereum Mega Thread", and an "Alt-coin Mega Thread") would work for 99% of forum members, and at the same time be manageable to moderate.

On the first page of this thread member alpine/boglehead wrote "Adult" "investors" "discussing" cryptocurrencies have other forums where they can do that." Really? Where?? I'd love to hear recommendations for specific forums where interested bogleheads can migrate to for reasonable & rational discussion of crypto. There's wayyyy too much noise and scamming @ Reddit and Twitter for me to wade through. Where can I go for moderated crypto discussion similar to what was going on here??

As several others have already asked, where does discussion of investments like Grayscale Investment Trusts (available on Fidelity & Vanguard!) fall within this ban?

Finally, if U.S. crypto ETFs are approved (a reasonably possibility), will they be allowed to be discussed?
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