New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
Applying the same logic re: being worthless and having negative long-term returns, and in the spirit of helping others avoid the mistake that I made, I would like to suggest that we also include references to owning Vanguard Energy Fund (VGENX) in the “greater fool” ban.
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
The crypto space is not synonymous just with Bitcoin.skor99 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:23 pm
Matures to what ? How will Bitcoin generate any wealth except for the greater fool theory ? I am all for the underlying technology like Blockchain etc but how does Bitcoin by itself do anything except to act as an alternative currency that maybe provides some anonymity and hence the potential for nefarious uses and therefore may be banned in the future
Bitcoin is <50% of the crypto market cap at present.
But, in any case, I could write all sorts of things speculating on how the crypto space might evolve, but it doesn't matter.
None of my hypothetical thoughts will pass the Boglehead sniff test.
If Vanguard or Fidelity ever makes a crypto fund, then maybe BH will allow the discussion.
Until then, it's a waste of neurons to debate in this community as the majority of the community, and the mods, don't want to talk about it.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
having said they were a long term holder, Tesla then booked a profit on selling crypto currencies in the next quarter.ResearchMed wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:03 pmPoint well taken, and thanks.gwe67 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 11:38 amSurely you own Tesla in some form. As of a few weeks ago, Tesla held $2.5 billion in bitcoin (I guess it's $1.98 billion now). Many companies accept crapto as payment and would have at least a nominal stockpile. So the vast majority of index investors do indirectly have a stake in crapto at least in some small way, but we just can't talk about it in this forum (which is a good thing).ResearchMed wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 10:31 am
[*] We have no crypto, unless there is some hidden within some mutual funds or ETFs, which is a slightly disturbing thought...
RM
I've made an edit to my post above to reflect this.
That was a for me...
RM
Elon Musk is adept at "pump and dump".
There will be utility companies that are making significant profits from selling electricity to crypto miners. Oil and gas and coal companies selling fuel to the utilities that generate the electricity that ...
You get the picture. It's part of world "economic activity" so it's also therefore something you have an (indirect) investment in.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
BTC ETF applications are pending with the SEC, so we shall see.watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:33 pmThe crypto space is not synonymous just with Bitcoin.skor99 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:23 pm
Matures to what ? How will Bitcoin generate any wealth except for the greater fool theory ? I am all for the underlying technology like Blockchain etc but how does Bitcoin by itself do anything except to act as an alternative currency that maybe provides some anonymity and hence the potential for nefarious uses and therefore may be banned in the future
Bitcoin is <50% of the crypto market cap at present.
But, in any case, I could write all sorts of things speculating on how the crypto space might evolve, but it doesn't matter.
None of my hypothetical thoughts will pass the Boglehead sniff test.
If Vanguard or Fidelity ever makes a crypto fund, then maybe BH will allow the discussion.
Until then, it's a waste of neurons to debate in this community as the majority of the community, and the mods, don't want to talk about it.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
I posed a very similar question upthread. No response.wootwoot wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:31 pmDo you consider investing in gold the greater fool theory? Gold doesn't generate wealth and private ownership was outlawed at one time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102. Should threads concerning precious metal investing be banned as well?skor99 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:23 pmMatures to what ? How will Bitcoin generate any wealth except for the greater fool theory ? I am all for the underlying technology like Blockchain etc but how does Bitcoin by itself do anything except to act as an alternative currency that maybe provides some anonymity and hence the potential for nefarious uses and therefore may be banned in the futurewatchnerd wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:15 pmIt's an incredibly conservative move but this is an incredibly (financially) conservative forum.
I've been here 14 years and remember when ETFs were considered a bit sketchy and Bogle himself was skeptical.
But ETFs have matured and become mainstream.
Perhaps 5-10 years from now, if the crypto space matures, it will be allowed to be discussed here.
Should discussions of cash allocations be banned?
Should the forum be turned into an echo chamber?
The Sensible Steward
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
I am a frequent reader and I am in full agreement and support the new policy, too many assumptions that crypto is ok, thank you.
Last edited by Kalzarak on Wed May 19, 2021 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
I'm OK with it. I would hate for this to become just another financial forum. I like the focus on Bogle inspired investing. That is a difficult balance.
As somebody said upthread, I wouldn't want this to be nothing more than an echo chamber. On the other hand, I don't want to have to wade through a bunch of threads about day-trading, technical charts, crypto speculation, and the like. If someone started a thread about beanie babies, I wouldn't care. If there were dozens of beanie baby threads, I'd get annoyed. Crypto has definitely gotten to the annoying point. I don't care whether it is banned or pushed into a single thread.
I'm not sure I would ban NFT discussions. NFT like blockchain is a useful concept that is being used for what is effectively gambling right now. At some point, I expect it to be used as a way to establish ownership on productive assets. I'm glad I'm not a moderator.
I'm grateful for the moderators and the work they do. They've done a good job with a difficult balance.
As somebody said upthread, I wouldn't want this to be nothing more than an echo chamber. On the other hand, I don't want to have to wade through a bunch of threads about day-trading, technical charts, crypto speculation, and the like. If someone started a thread about beanie babies, I wouldn't care. If there were dozens of beanie baby threads, I'd get annoyed. Crypto has definitely gotten to the annoying point. I don't care whether it is banned or pushed into a single thread.
I'm not sure I would ban NFT discussions. NFT like blockchain is a useful concept that is being used for what is effectively gambling right now. At some point, I expect it to be used as a way to establish ownership on productive assets. I'm glad I'm not a moderator.
I'm grateful for the moderators and the work they do. They've done a good job with a difficult balance.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
Glad to see this new policy. Sorry to see several members poking and prodding it at it from various angles.
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
Imagine if a low expense ratio, cryptocurrency index fund emerges!anon_investor wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:34 pm BTC ETF applications are pending with the SEC, so we shall see.
"No man is free who must work for a living." (Illya Kuryakin)
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
That 10% equity reduction contributed to creating our LMP bond ladder.Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:30 pm I recall your post about selling 10% of your equities because of the elevated Schiller CAPE awhile back and then when we returned from a month long RV trip last week I saw you picked up two cryptocurrencies during the time we were w/o internet in the mountains. Being roughly the same age and in a similar position in life it’s made for a least a bit of contemplation on my part. Thanks for your candor!
I’m rooting for your crypto to do a 180.
No regrets -- our cost of living is now pre-funded to the year 2037.
Interestingly, the 2% crypto allocation (well, 1.5% now) has a risk parity volatility of about 1:7 when compared to VT.
So even though we cut equities by 10%, the 2% crypto acts like 12-14% equities in terms of portfolio gyrations.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
I'm sure I didn't coin the term, but I don't mind using it...surprised nobody noticed earlier.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:34 pmWas this the greatest typo of all time?
A Freudian slip? Or am I just learning an old joke?
VTI 48%, VXUS 12%, BND 40%
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
To those that are doing the work to set policies, moderate the discussions, and the likely 100+ other tasks it takes to run this forum and its associated events and activities:
THANK YOU!
THANK YOU!
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
This is the kind of discussion that makes me think the forum would benefit from continuing to have at least one thread on crypto, because there are different types of crypto assets, some of which are yield-generating, and there are some crypto assets that are purely speculative.Valuethinker wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:27 pmBut there was never any clear explanation as to how that particularly money making machine worked?Elric wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:24 pmThis is not my area of expertise, but my understanding is that one can currently lend out ether and earn a return in that manner. Is that not correct?secondopinion wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:16 pm A real estate/stock/bond bubble is often far milder than what was seen with tulips. With the former, all three can generate earnings as to the investor (whether it is realized or not).
Lend out to whom? And why would they pay you 10% pa for that privilege?
I gave an example for AAVE earlier. Owning AAVE tokens gives you governance over the protocol, just as you get voting rights as a shareholder. AAVE itself generates revenue by serving as a lending protocol (people can borrow and lend USD on the platform). If you stake your AAVE (i.e., use your AAVE to validate transactions) then you earn a portion of the revenue generated by the platform. It's really just like a bank, except it reduces costs by eliminating the need for brick and mortar / personnel.
Ethereum is another example, if the transition to ETH 2.0 goes as planned. Ethereum is kind of like the App Store, or AWS--it is a network that people can run applications on--the most popular applications are decentralized finance apps like AAVE but also include some gaming apps and also NFTs. The network charges a fee to run applications (called a "gas" fee), and after ETH 2.0 the revenue generated by those fees passes to those who hold ETH 2.0--that is direct income to ETH 2.0 holders. It's like owning a tollbooth on a highway.
The majority of cryptocurrencies, however, are like Bitcoin or Dogecoin--they are not programmable and do not generate yield (although they can be lended for a return like a bond). Those are speculative. But they are not the whole story when it comes to crypto assets.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
Gold has practical industrial uses which can impact prices, not just the speculative investment aspect.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:35 pmI posed a very similar question upthread. No response.wootwoot wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:31 pmDo you consider investing in gold the greater fool theory? Gold doesn't generate wealth and private ownership was outlawed at one time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102. Should threads concerning precious metal investing be banned as well?skor99 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:23 pmMatures to what ? How will Bitcoin generate any wealth except for the greater fool theory ? I am all for the underlying technology like Blockchain etc but how does Bitcoin by itself do anything except to act as an alternative currency that maybe provides some anonymity and hence the potential for nefarious uses and therefore may be banned in the futurewatchnerd wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:15 pmIt's an incredibly conservative move but this is an incredibly (financially) conservative forum.
I've been here 14 years and remember when ETFs were considered a bit sketchy and Bogle himself was skeptical.
But ETFs have matured and become mainstream.
Perhaps 5-10 years from now, if the crypto space matures, it will be allowed to be discussed here.
Should discussions of cash allocations be banned?
Should the forum be turned into an echo chamber?
You can earn interest on cash (e.g 0.5% at Ally Bank).
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
Did it truly end? People still value it just as much as before despite it no longer being a currency. It is a commodity now.Thesaints wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:24 pmYes, but that long history ended on August 15th, 1971.secondopinion wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:16 pm ... As far as gold, it has an history value that is thousands of years old.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
I thought you were just trying to avoid the word after the bangwe67 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:41 pmI'm sure I didn't coin the term, but I don't mind using it...surprised nobody noticed earlier.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 12:34 pmWas this the greatest typo of all time?
A Freudian slip? Or am I just learning an old joke?
Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
I always thought non-dividend paying stocks were a Ponzi scheme since, like crypto currencies, they produce no cashflow often because the underlying business is unprofitable. Sure they have value, like crypto, in that you can sell them in the market for what some fool will pay, but do they have a fundamental value? You can speculate that there will be future cashflows or a buyout by some institutional greater fool, but that’s not really different than hoping you’ll be able to stake your crypto for lending yield or that future applications may use Etherium in ways that make it more valuable eventually.Alex Frakt wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 1:46 am The forum has adopted a new Forum Policy which can be found at Unacceptable Topics - Greater Fool Investing Strategies
I'll quote it here. Note that the exact wording may change as we receive further feedback, but the basic message will not.Greater Fool Investing Strategies
Eventually, one runs out of greater fools. - Burton Malkiel
Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes.
Last edited by Tanelorn on Wed May 19, 2021 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
Do you need to update those volatility numbers after the last 24 hours?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
We are locking this thread since it is turning into another debate on the merits of crypto.
Thank you for your feedback. The discussion will be ongoing in the Advisory Board and Moderators forums. It will obviously take a little while to figure out issues such as people discussing existing crypto holding in the context of their overall portfolio or someday perhaps regulated crypto-based products. Please bear with as we work through this.
Thank you for your feedback. The discussion will be ongoing in the Advisory Board and Moderators forums. It will obviously take a little while to figure out issues such as people discussing existing crypto holding in the context of their overall portfolio or someday perhaps regulated crypto-based products. Please bear with as we work through this.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies
10/19/21 Update: What about BITO, the new futures ETF?
This still falls under our prohibition. Our ban on crypto discussions is ultimately based on cryptocurrencies' lack of intrinsic value. While the ETF structure greatly reduces non-market risks, purchasing it is still a purely speculative gamble, not an investment.
This still falls under our prohibition. Our ban on crypto discussions is ultimately based on cryptocurrencies' lack of intrinsic value. While the ETF structure greatly reduces non-market risks, purchasing it is still a purely speculative gamble, not an investment.