BABA and Tencent
Re: BABA and Tencent
may be a good idea to sell puts since it is at lows .lower risk than buying long .
Thanks!
Re: BABA and Tencent
Bloomberg has an in-depth piece on the China business environment here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ina-crisis
The takeaway quote: “Investors who have ignored this anticapitalist turn in China have only themselves to blame if they have lost money.”
The takeaway quote: “Investors who have ignored this anticapitalist turn in China have only themselves to blame if they have lost money.”
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
Re: BABA and Tencent
BABA is trading at 127$ range you think it's the black friday / cyber monday deal for this year?carminered2019 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:00 am yep, I bought 30K of BABA yesterday for $150 per share and planning to keep it for minimum 5 years.
Thanks!
Re: BABA and Tencent
Quarterly Report showed an 87% drop in earnings.
Did you read the entire thread? Are you prepared to have the CCP declare the ADR structure was always illegal as the Bloomberg article suggests is possible?
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
Re: BABA and Tencent
i am willing to risk 5% of my portfoilio on BABA when it's cheap and 500B wealth has been lost
Thanks!
Re: BABA and Tencent
I saw my BABA go from $300 last year to now $127 I am going to be selling this after the new year.
Re: BABA and Tencent
Are you sure about that? Is that the only reason or are there other factors (sudden disappearance of the Founder, mysterious regulations in Mainland China etc. that are causing this? Overall, I am not convinced that this is going to go up and the business conditions aren't favoring an even level playing field. A tad bit risky for me.
Re: BABA and Tencent
enjoy…manuvns wrote: ↑Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:54 ami am willing to risk 5% of my portfoilio on BABA when it's cheap and 500B wealth has been lost
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
Re: BABA and Tencent
Now have read that DiDi is leaving town. At least delisting from the NYSE, which may portend other Chinese ADRs also fleeing. DiDi is going to HK, where it will be welcomed, I'm sure.
I'm totally out of China now but did have a good run with Bidu and Baba. Gotta wonder about Munger who took a big stake in Baba last month. Does he have an inside track, or pipeline to the 'big panda', which will save his butt?
I'm totally out of China now but did have a good run with Bidu and Baba. Gotta wonder about Munger who took a big stake in Baba last month. Does he have an inside track, or pipeline to the 'big panda', which will save his butt?
Re: BABA and Tencent
Congratulations on getting out in time. It's a scary situation now with double whammy major risk for these stocks from both sides - China and the US. A real shame because this was one part of ex-US that really had promise, but unfortunately also too much baggage.rosalee wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:25 am Now have read that DiDi is leaving town. At least delisting from the NYSE, which may portend other Chinese ADRs also fleeing. DiDi is going to HK, where it will be welcomed, I'm sure.
I'm totally out of China now but did have a good run with Bidu and Baba. Gotta wonder about Munger who took a big stake in Baba last month. Does he have an inside track, or pipeline to the 'big panda', which will save his butt?
Re: BABA and Tencent
If Baba and tencent delist in USA, what will happen to index funds that have these companies? Will they change their composition of stock?
Re: BABA and Tencent
Either that or own the shares wherever they end up trading, such as the HK exchange or OTC. Some funds limit themselves to ADRs, so they'll change composition, or maybe own OTC shares at least for a while. If there's a mass delisting, it will be even scarier.
Re: BABA and Tencent
Many of them might sell those holdings if their mandate or business setup doesn’t allow for foreign Chinese holdings. Plus it’s possible that China will put restrictions on ownership of the Hong Kong listed shares which may force foreigners to sell anyway, returning both the company’s value and corporate control to China.
DIDI was down 25% today on the delisting news, which still isn’t for sure or finalized. That tells you lots of existing shareholders don’t want this to happen and view it as strongly negative for the price they’re willing to pay.
US ADRs of large Chinese companies, the kind of businesses the government cares about, are uninvestable in my opinion.
Re: BABA and Tencent
Can someone help me understand what will happen if chinese stocks like BABA are delisted. I unfortunately hold individual china stocks like BABA and not sure what to do. Will I lose practically everything if they delist?
Re: BABA and Tencent
It depends how/why they get delisted and other factors that surround it. At a very basic/generic level, being delisted just means you can't buy/sell it on whatever stock exchange it was previously listed on. You still own the shares, or whatever it is they represent. If you want to sell them you'll have a much harder time, but if they have value, there is likely someone that would be willing to buy them (at a steep enough discount) and you might have to look over-seas for someone to broker or assist with it, which might create lots of other unusual situations to navigate with foreign exchange and tax situations.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: BABA and Tencent
While I think it’s unlikely, if China were to declare that the VIE structure used to list BABA was illegal, the shares would become worthless as there are no underlying assets behind the VIE.
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
Re: BABA and Tencent
The issue is delisting, and the underlying driver like you said isn't likely to be the VIE structure being declared illegal.
At this point, something has to give for delisting not to happen. What's forcing delisting is SEC audit requirements. The rules for this were just finalized.
Without agreement from the Chinese government and the companies involved, delisting seems inevitable. Even if there was compliance, there's the question of which companies would be allowed to comply and would agree to comply, and whether those audit reports would pass muster - maybe they would for some companies, but not others.
It's a huge mess, and truly scary. I read that over a trillion dollars in value of US-traded Chinese stocks has already been wiped out since February.
Re: BABA and Tencent
I purchased some BABA a while back and then lost money. So I obviously sold it. If you want an almost perfect way to make a lot of money just watch all my stock trades and do the exact opposite. It’s called the George Costanza stock trading technique.
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?
Re: BABA and Tencent
China walked back the hard stance they had after seeing big and growing stock market losses. I still see DIDI and many others moving to Hong Kong to the determinant of US investors in the meanwhile.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ock-plunge
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Re: BABA and Tencent
I sold all mine. I think we are in the midst of a big geopolitical shift and things can go to zero again like they did pre Cold War. Russia is a good recent example. Clearly China is going to try to lower its dependency on US financial markets and after watching Russia they’ll accelerate that process. That dependency is a weapon. So I think the conflict between China and the US will mostly determine your outcome and not Baba or TenCent. That seems like a difficult situation to handicap. Maybe you can hedge by buying Lockheed Martin and US defense stocks. Only slightly kidding.
Re: BABA and Tencent
Delisting - more info and fears for Chinese ADRs.
https://www.asiamarkets.com/chinese-adr ... intensify/
https://www.asiamarkets.com/chinese-adr ... intensify/
SEC publicly named five U.S.-listed Chinese ADR’s that could be in breach of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act.
The five companies identified by the SEC are:
BeiGene Limited (NASDAQ: BGNE)
Yum China Holdings Limited (NYSE: YUMC)
Zai Lab Limited (NASDAQ: ZLAB)
ACM Research (NASDAQ: ACMR)
HUTCHMED (China) Limited (NASDAQ: HCM)
...KraneShares added it expects all Chinese ADRs will be found non-compliant unless a resolution is reached between U.S. and Chinese regulators.
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Re: BABA and Tencent
JPMorgan new price targets:
Tencent (0700) $570 → $265
Ali(9988) $175 → $63
Meituan(3690) $295 → $90
JD.com (9618) $380 → $135
NetEase(9999) $195 → $93
Baidu(9888) $235 → $85
Tencent Music (TME) US$6 → US$3.5
Weibo (WB) US$32 → US$24
Kingsoft Cloud (KC) US$8 → US$3.5
Tencent (0700) $570 → $265
Ali(9988) $175 → $63
Meituan(3690) $295 → $90
JD.com (9618) $380 → $135
NetEase(9999) $195 → $93
Baidu(9888) $235 → $85
Tencent Music (TME) US$6 → US$3.5
Weibo (WB) US$32 → US$24
Kingsoft Cloud (KC) US$8 → US$3.5
Re: BABA and Tencent
Ouuuuuuchrichard.h.gao wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:14 pm JPMorgan new price targets:
Tencent (0700) $570 → $265
Ali(9988) $175 → $63
Meituan(3690) $295 → $90
JD.com (9618) $380 → $135
NetEase(9999) $195 → $93
Baidu(9888) $235 → $85
Tencent Music (TME) US$6 → US$3.5
Weibo (WB) US$32 → US$24
Kingsoft Cloud (KC) US$8 → US$3.5
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Re: BABA and Tencent
yes... the best move was to short them... after their run up... Chinese companies have always been a blackbox of financial troubles.... the delisting was only a matter of time. There are some investment methods you have to play on the downside.
Re: BABA and Tencent
MCHI is now under its March 2020 low
Re: BABA and Tencent
China vowed to ensure market stability. Everything is moving up sharply premarket. If these were shorted, there could be a short squeeze with this radical move up. It'll be fun to watch this from the sidelines.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-sto ... wiS7LsFQWX
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-sto ... wiS7LsFQWX
Re: BABA and Tencent
The dynamic of Chinese stocks is very interesting to watch. The moment there are hints of sanctions or restrictions by the Chinese government, stocks crash down. Today, the government pledges to support its stock market and ease restrictions and the market there jumps. Already seeing noise and articles about how "of course BABA (and other Chinese stocks) were oversold and undervalued, hence the jump today was expected". Funny how the same articles about BABA were written almost daily from its drop from $300. Goes to show, no one know what will happen in the stock market, not even "regional analysts" in their region of specialty.
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Re: BABA and Tencent
DIDI up 44% today.
Re: BABA and Tencent
It's enough to make you think that picking stocks is hard
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"
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Re: BABA and Tencent
DIDI up another 54% today.richard.h.gao wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:04 amDIDI up 44% today.
Re: BABA and Tencent
DIDI is down another 50% in the last couple months, and plans to end it’s US listing in the coming weeks. There is no plan to relist shares on another exchange at this point.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2022 ... 1ed78e0cba
If you don’t want to be stuck as a Chinese private equity holder, you should probably sell this week.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2022 ... 1ed78e0cba
If you don’t want to be stuck as a Chinese private equity holder, you should probably sell this week.
Re: BABA and Tencent
$150 a share seemed like a bargain since it was half of the all time high. Surely the stock would hit $300 again some day? But now we are down to $90. What a painful investing process this must be. You doubled-down and lost, do you now triple-down at 90? Or do you bail on a sinking ship? There are certain countries that pose an unacceptable political risk and right now, China is one of them.carminered2019 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:00 am yep, I bought 30K of BABA yesterday for $150 per share and planning to keep it for minimum 5 years.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: BABA and Tencent
I think it’s important to have some criteria about what stock is considered cheap and how cheap a stock is. And my criteria is shareholder yield.
I looked up BABA’s Q4 2021 financials and see that the Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding has reduced from 2752M to 2714M over a year. BABA does not pay a dividend so its shareholder yield is a mere 1.38%. That’s even lower than many US large tech companies such as GOOG, FB or AAPL. TECHY has negative shareholder yield right now because it’s still issuing more shares every quarter.
So the question comes, if they are so cheap, why are they not buying back their stocks like crazy? Whatever the reason is, it’s probably not good news for shareholders.
So I have invested in Bank of China HK.3988 which pays a 9% dividend with no shareholder dilution. Some other Chinese stocks that I am interested in are VIPS ($5.6B company with a $1B buyback ongoing), HK.6198 (Qingdao Port) which pays an 8% dividend with no dilution, etc.
Of course such investing style is not suitable for everybody, and you may very well make a lot of money buying BABA or TECHY right now. It’s just a simple rule to weed out companies that are not attractive enough to me.
I looked up BABA’s Q4 2021 financials and see that the Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding has reduced from 2752M to 2714M over a year. BABA does not pay a dividend so its shareholder yield is a mere 1.38%. That’s even lower than many US large tech companies such as GOOG, FB or AAPL. TECHY has negative shareholder yield right now because it’s still issuing more shares every quarter.
So the question comes, if they are so cheap, why are they not buying back their stocks like crazy? Whatever the reason is, it’s probably not good news for shareholders.
So I have invested in Bank of China HK.3988 which pays a 9% dividend with no shareholder dilution. Some other Chinese stocks that I am interested in are VIPS ($5.6B company with a $1B buyback ongoing), HK.6198 (Qingdao Port) which pays an 8% dividend with no dilution, etc.
Of course such investing style is not suitable for everybody, and you may very well make a lot of money buying BABA or TECHY right now. It’s just a simple rule to weed out companies that are not attractive enough to me.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
Re: BABA and Tencent
I am taking the route of investing in KWEB -KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF. Been buying shares anytime it goes under 25. It is now 5% of my allocation and I am ok with up to 10%.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
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Re: BABA and Tencent
So this thread started in July 2021 to make the case that Alibaba and Tencent were serious bargains.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
Re: BABA and Tencent
Five more major China stocks are delisting from NYSE to avoid audits.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ngton.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ngton.html