I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it? [Croatia]

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antisa
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I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it? [Croatia]

Post by antisa »

If I would like to earn on average 15% from my portfolio investments, how to go about it?

Let's assume I can tolerate any risk and my time horizon is 30 years.
CoAndy
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by CoAndy »

Probably speculating and/or taking a gamble on an individual stock and getting lucky. T. Rowe Price Growth Stock (PRGFX) mutual fund has averaged 17% over the last 11 years. Highly unlikely to repeat moving forward however. I think you should ratchet down your expectations in order to not get yourself in trouble. Best of luck.
Marseille07
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Marseille07 »

Not realistic with passive investing; you need to trade tactically and beat the market.
Doctor Rhythm
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Doctor Rhythm »

And I would like a cat that actually enjoys writing code and doesn’t have to be constantly cajoled.

Your prior post a month ago stipulated a 6% return - why so ambitious? If you want to average 15% annual ROI over 30 years, you’re going to have to be exceptionally lucky and take exceptionally high risk.
Last edited by Doctor Rhythm on Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mike Scott
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Mike Scott »

Start a loan shark hobby? Bitcoin?
pasadena
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by pasadena »

Yeah, I mean, me too :greedy :greedy :greedy
manatee2005
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by manatee2005 »

antisa wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:19 pm If I would like to earn on average 15% from my portfolio investments, how to go about it?

Let's assume I can tolerate any risk and my time horizon is 30 years.
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Tingting1013
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Tingting1013 »

manatee2005 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:29 pm
antisa wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:19 pm If I would like to earn on average 15% from my portfolio investments, how to go about it?

Let's assume I can tolerate any risk and my time horizon is 30 years.
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A 15% CAGR strategy would be laughed out of the room at WSB
ViperAttacks
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by ViperAttacks »

I didn't think it was possible until I got some ocean front property in Arizona. From my front porch you can see the sea. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

I would like 25% per year.
Admiral
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Admiral »

Save 50% of your gross income. You'll likely do very well.
coachd50
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by coachd50 »

Admiral wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:34 pm Save 50% of your gross income. You'll likely do very well.
Amen!
So many people are looking for the magic bullet. Sad.
If someone is willing to accept "any risk" for 15%--may I suggest simply getting a second job?

For the OP. Take money to Casino. Bet either Odd/Even or Red/Black. You have a 47% chance to get a 100% return!
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9-5 Suited
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by 9-5 Suited »

2x leveraging the SP500? You said risk appetite is unlimited!
000
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by 000 »

Leverage or stock picking. IMO the latter is safer than the former.
Marseille07
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Marseille07 »

Leverage does not boost your return on a B&H basis. You can reduce your exposure later and probably going to come out ahead, but that's tactical trading / market timing.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by White Coat Investor »

antisa wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:19 pm If I would like to earn on average 15% from my portfolio investments, how to go about it?

Let's assume I can tolerate any risk and my time horizon is 30 years.
Leverage and an active role. Think real estate investing.
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ResearchMed
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by ResearchMed »

9-5 Suited wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:40 pm 2x leveraging the SP500? You said risk appetite is unlimited!
Right.

OP: You can pretty much guarantee yourself the "high risk".

But guaranteeing that high ROI? Not so much....

RM
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pasadena
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by pasadena »

ResearchMed wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:49 pm
9-5 Suited wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:40 pm 2x leveraging the SP500? You said risk appetite is unlimited!
Right.

OP: You can pretty much guarantee yourself the "high risk".

But guaranteeing that high ROI? Not so much....

RM
Yearly!
Trader Joe
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Trader Joe »

antisa wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:19 pm If I would like to earn on average 15% from my portfolio investments, how to go about it?

Let's assume I can tolerate any risk and my time horizon is 30 years.
If this is the goal, I would invest 100% in VITAX/VGT.
BogleFan510
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by BogleFan510 »

I think the best paths in that range are in order:

1) higher education to increase pay rate;
2) start a successful business. this may require some effort to identify attractive areas that fit your skills, but a 15% growth is possible. may require significant time and effort.
3) real estate in areas on edge of high growth communities, over 15% requires active research and management, but again very possible. may require debt and leverage, with downside possible. I understand farmland can be high upside.
4) stock picking. requires targeting growth and choosing correctly. quite possible, but significant downside is also possible.

Passive funds are unlikely in current markets. You might bet on international or a sector fund in a area you feel will outperform.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

get in a time machine and invest from 1980-1999. you'd have gotten 17.5% a year. easy!

the hard part is building the time machine.

best of luck to you.

if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?

if you could get a GUARANTEED return, that would mean the investment carried NO risk.

If the investment carried NO risk, why would there be a large return?

do you see how the question is silly when you think about it?

there's no way to know what any investment might return over time. You can know what investments have provided 15% per year as some have told you. Problem is, those are returns of the past, not the future. You want future returns because you can no longer get those past returns. Unfortunately, no one knows what the future returns will be. That won't stop people from telling you such lies, especially if you ask them for it.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by willthrill81 »

Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months. :D
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

Set up a payday loan business.
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Tingting1013
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Tingting1013 »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
Because they are Bogleheads who wouldn’t pick up a hundred dollar bill off the street because “if it was real someone would have picked it up already”
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Marseille07 »

willthrill81 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months. :D
I didn't know you were running a flavor of it. It's really risky in my opinion when the bonds crash.
Marseille07
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Marseille07 »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
Same reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

You've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:07 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
Same reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.
His point was if it didn't come with risk and anyone was guaranteed to be able to do it, then everyone would and we'd all be earning 15% annual returns every year.
four7s
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by four7s »

Peace on earth or 15% ROI for 30 years? Not likely on either account.
Marseille07
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:09 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:07 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
Same reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.
His point was if it didn't come with risk and anyone was guaranteed to be able to do it, then everyone would and we'd all be earning 15% annual returns every year.
Just buy the dip FS style. Problem solved.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:12 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:09 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:07 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
Same reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.
His point was if it didn't come with risk and anyone was guaranteed to be able to do it, then everyone would and we'd all be earning 15% annual returns every year.
Just buy the dip FS style. Problem solved.
:sharebeer :wink:
JHU ALmuni
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by JHU ALmuni »

My 401K up 37% this year. So 15% is possible in the current market unless we start to see down trend.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Tingting1013 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:08 pm
You've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?
As far as I can tell, OP did not ask for a guarantee or a time machine.

There are no guarantees in life. There are more and less likely probabilities.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from my checking account next year? Pretty close to zero.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from the S&P 500 next year? Somewhat higher than zero.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from a leveraged equity index in a world where the Fed has committed to keeping interest rates low, where the entire economy is dependent upon those interest rates remaining low, and where there is no alternative besides stocks? Again, somewhat higher than zero.

I make my life choices based on reasonably educated probabilities, not “guarantees”. How do you make yours?
Last edited by Tingting1013 on Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
jarjarM
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by jarjarM »

willthrill81 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months. :D
Annualized?
jarjarM
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by jarjarM »

willthrill81 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months. :D
Duplicated
Samosa22
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Samosa22 »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:12 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:09 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:07 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
Same reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.
His point was if it didn't come with risk and anyone was guaranteed to be able to do it, then everyone would and we'd all be earning 15% annual returns every year.
Just buy the dip FS style. Problem solved.
I was going to suggest that but then realized OP is interested in just 15%.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:17 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:08 pm
You've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?
As far as I can tell, OP did not ask for a guarantee or a time machine.

There are no guarantees in life. There are more and less likely probabilities.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from my checking account next year? Pretty close to zero.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from the S&P 500 next year? Somewhat higher than zero.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from a leveraged equity index in a world where the Fed has committed to keeping interest rates low, where the entire economy is dependent upon those interest rates remaining low, and where there is no alternative besides stocks? Again, somewhat higher than zero.

I make my life choices based on reasonably educated probabilities, not “guarantees”. How do you make yours?
You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.

It is highly unlikely to be successful.

I'm not speaking about how to make choices. I'm speaking to you answering a question with an answer that is very likely to be wrong.

Maybe semantics to some, but since the OP asked this question he is presumably a beginner and would very likely think an affirmative answer like yours is likely to give him 15% per year over the next 30 years.
Marseille07
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.

It is highly unlikely to be successful.
Why do you think so? 87% of active fund managers trail the SPX but the flipside is 13% of them beat the market.
Tingting1013
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Tingting1013 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:17 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:08 pm
You've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?
As far as I can tell, OP did not ask for a guarantee or a time machine.

There are no guarantees in life. There are more and less likely probabilities.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from my checking account next year? Pretty close to zero.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from the S&P 500 next year? Somewhat higher than zero.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from a leveraged equity index in a world where the Fed has committed to keeping interest rates low, where the entire economy is dependent upon those interest rates remaining low, and where there is no alternative besides stocks? Again, somewhat higher than zero.

I make my life choices based on reasonably educated probabilities, not “guarantees”. How do you make yours?
You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.

It is highly unlikely to be successful.

I'm not speaking about how to make choices. I'm speaking to you answering a question with an answer that is very likely to be wrong.

Maybe semantics to some, but since the OP asked this question he is presumably a beginner and would very likely think an affirmative answer like yours is likely to give him 15% per year over the next 30 years.
There are clear theoretical reasons why that particular mutual fund can achieve the 15% target over the next 30 years. It’s not a stock-picking fund. There are many threads on BH dissecting it, if you are interested.

I actually have the majority of my seven figure net worth in this fund. If we are both around in 30 years I’d love to see which one of us is correct.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by JoeRetire »

antisa wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:19 pm If I would like to earn on average 15% from my portfolio investments, how to go about it?

Let's assume I can tolerate any risk and my time horizon is 30 years.
Lottery tickets
Roulette
Picking the next Amazon
Sport Betting
Last edited by JoeRetire on Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by willthrill81 »

jarjarM wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:19 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months. :D
Annualized?
Cumulative.
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:27 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.

It is highly unlikely to be successful.
Why do you think so? 87% of active fund managers trail the SPX but the flipside is 13% of them beat the market.
Yes. 13% beat the market. In a given year. But it isn't the same fund managers each year. And even if done over 30 years, that still means he's highly unlikely to be invested in a fund run by one if them.
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JoMoney
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by JoMoney »

Interest rates on high grade bonds are around 2-3%. There isn't anything you can do to earn more than that without taking risk, which means a significant chance you won't even earn that (and might even lose money...a lot).

The long-term average return of the stock market is something like 10% or 12% a year (depending how you want to measure it, the average compound return is 10% or the mean value of the extremely volatile annual returns is something like 12%). Most people expect that starting from where we are today, returns like that going forward are unlikely.

If you want something more than what the market is offering, I think you need to offer something the market can't. I don't think the securities markets reward for simply taking "risk" of the coin-flip type that anyone can take. I do think if you have better information in some particular area, you might be able to profit from that, but that's not most people. Most people would accumulate a higher portfolio by focusing their efforts on their day job providing something people want in that respective "market", cutting their expenses, and saving more money.

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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:28 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:17 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:08 pm
You've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?
As far as I can tell, OP did not ask for a guarantee or a time machine.

There are no guarantees in life. There are more and less likely probabilities.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from my checking account next year? Pretty close to zero.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from the S&P 500 next year? Somewhat higher than zero.

What is the probability of me earning 15% from a leveraged equity index in a world where the Fed has committed to keeping interest rates low, where the entire economy is dependent upon those interest rates remaining low, and where there is no alternative besides stocks? Again, somewhat higher than zero.

I make my life choices based on reasonably educated probabilities, not “guarantees”. How do you make yours?
You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.

It is highly unlikely to be successful.

I'm not speaking about how to make choices. I'm speaking to you answering a question with an answer that is very likely to be wrong.

Maybe semantics to some, but since the OP asked this question he is presumably a beginner and would very likely think an affirmative answer like yours is likely to give him 15% per year over the next 30 years.
There are clear theoretical reasons why that particular mutual fund can achieve the 15% target over the next 30 years. It’s not a stock-picking fund. There are many threads on BH dissecting it, if you are interested.

I actually have the majority of my seven figure net worth in this fund. If we are both around in 30 years I’d love to see which one of us is correct.
Maybe there are theoretical reasons why that fund can achieve a 15% return. It is still highly unlikely to happen and therefore shouldn't be recommended when somebody asks how to achieve a 15% return.

I'll check out the other threads.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:30 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:27 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.

It is highly unlikely to be successful.
Why do you think so? 87% of active fund managers trail the SPX but the flipside is 13% of them beat the market.
Yes. 13% beat the market. In a given year. But it isn't the same fund managers each year. And even if done over 30 years, that still means he's highly unlikely to be invested in a fund run by one if them.
It's basically 2x S&P500 2x long-term bonds as far as I understand. Think of it like HEDGEFUNDIE but 2x instead of 3x.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:33 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:30 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:27 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.

It is highly unlikely to be successful.
Why do you think so? 87% of active fund managers trail the SPX but the flipside is 13% of them beat the market.
Yes. 13% beat the market. In a given year. But it isn't the same fund managers each year. And even if done over 30 years, that still means he's highly unlikely to be invested in a fund run by one if them.
It's basically 2x S&P500 2x long-term bonds as far as I understand. Think of it like HEDGEFUNDIE but 2x instead of 3x.
I have no idea what that means, honestly.

But I don't have to in order to know that it's likely to not attain 15% annual returns over the next 30 years.
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

PRGFX
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Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by willthrill81 »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:06 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months. :D
I didn't know you were running a flavor of it. It's really risky in my opinion when the bonds crash.
'If', not 'when'. The strategy is dependent on the 'flight to safety' aspect of bonds, not their yields.

Earning a higher return than the market is not the same as 'beating the market'. It simply requires taking on more risk than the market, including the risk of a massive drawdown that cannot be practically recovered from. That's why I'm only doing this with a small portion of my portfolio and with Roth funds (i.e. in case it's very successful).
The Sensible Steward
J295
Posts: 3399
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:40 pm

Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?

Post by J295 »

For perspective. According to the SPY calculator with dividend reinvestment from June 2019 through December 2020 return is around 32%
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