I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it? [Croatia]
I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it? [Croatia]
If I would like to earn on average 15% from my portfolio investments, how to go about it?
Let's assume I can tolerate any risk and my time horizon is 30 years.
Let's assume I can tolerate any risk and my time horizon is 30 years.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Probably speculating and/or taking a gamble on an individual stock and getting lucky. T. Rowe Price Growth Stock (PRGFX) mutual fund has averaged 17% over the last 11 years. Highly unlikely to repeat moving forward however. I think you should ratchet down your expectations in order to not get yourself in trouble. Best of luck.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Not realistic with passive investing; you need to trade tactically and beat the market.
-
- Posts: 3061
- Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:55 am
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
And I would like a cat that actually enjoys writing code and doesn’t have to be constantly cajoled.
Your prior post a month ago stipulated a 6% return - why so ambitious? If you want to average 15% annual ROI over 30 years, you’re going to have to be exceptionally lucky and take exceptionally high risk.
Your prior post a month ago stipulated a 6% return - why so ambitious? If you want to average 15% annual ROI over 30 years, you’re going to have to be exceptionally lucky and take exceptionally high risk.
Last edited by Doctor Rhythm on Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
- Posts: 1594
- Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:44 pm
-
- Posts: 3579
- Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 2:45 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Start a loan shark hobby? Bitcoin?
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Yeah, I mean, me too
-
- Posts: 2136
- Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:17 pm
-
- Posts: 1594
- Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:44 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
A 15% CAGR strategy would be laughed out of the room at WSB
-
- Posts: 68
- Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:41 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
I didn't think it was possible until I got some ocean front property in Arizona. From my front porch you can see the sea.
- Cheez-It Guy
- Posts: 4007
- Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:20 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
I would like 25% per year.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Save 50% of your gross income. You'll likely do very well.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Amen!
So many people are looking for the magic bullet. Sad.
If someone is willing to accept "any risk" for 15%--may I suggest simply getting a second job?
For the OP. Take money to Casino. Bet either Odd/Even or Red/Black. You have a 47% chance to get a 100% return!
- 9-5 Suited
- Posts: 1307
- Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:14 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
2x leveraging the SP500? You said risk appetite is unlimited!
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Leverage or stock picking. IMO the latter is safer than the former.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Leverage does not boost your return on a B&H basis. You can reduce your exposure later and probably going to come out ahead, but that's tactical trading / market timing.
- White Coat Investor
- Posts: 17409
- Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:11 pm
- Location: Greatest Snow On Earth
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Leverage and an active role. Think real estate investing.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy |
4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
- ResearchMed
- Posts: 16795
- Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 10:25 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Right.9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:40 pm 2x leveraging the SP500? You said risk appetite is unlimited!
OP: You can pretty much guarantee yourself the "high risk".
But guaranteeing that high ROI? Not so much....
RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Yearly!ResearchMed wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:49 pmRight.9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:40 pm 2x leveraging the SP500? You said risk appetite is unlimited!
OP: You can pretty much guarantee yourself the "high risk".
But guaranteeing that high ROI? Not so much....
RM
-
- Posts: 2697
- Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:38 pm
-
- Posts: 1039
- Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:13 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
I think the best paths in that range are in order:
1) higher education to increase pay rate;
2) start a successful business. this may require some effort to identify attractive areas that fit your skills, but a 15% growth is possible. may require significant time and effort.
3) real estate in areas on edge of high growth communities, over 15% requires active research and management, but again very possible. may require debt and leverage, with downside possible. I understand farmland can be high upside.
4) stock picking. requires targeting growth and choosing correctly. quite possible, but significant downside is also possible.
Passive funds are unlikely in current markets. You might bet on international or a sector fund in a area you feel will outperform.
1) higher education to increase pay rate;
2) start a successful business. this may require some effort to identify attractive areas that fit your skills, but a 15% growth is possible. may require significant time and effort.
3) real estate in areas on edge of high growth communities, over 15% requires active research and management, but again very possible. may require debt and leverage, with downside possible. I understand farmland can be high upside.
4) stock picking. requires targeting growth and choosing correctly. quite possible, but significant downside is also possible.
Passive funds are unlikely in current markets. You might bet on international or a sector fund in a area you feel will outperform.
- arcticpineapplecorp.
- Posts: 15080
- Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:22 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
get in a time machine and invest from 1980-1999. you'd have gotten 17.5% a year. easy!
the hard part is building the time machine.
best of luck to you.
if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
if you could get a GUARANTEED return, that would mean the investment carried NO risk.
If the investment carried NO risk, why would there be a large return?
do you see how the question is silly when you think about it?
there's no way to know what any investment might return over time. You can know what investments have provided 15% per year as some have told you. Problem is, those are returns of the past, not the future. You want future returns because you can no longer get those past returns. Unfortunately, no one knows what the future returns will be. That won't stop people from telling you such lies, especially if you ask them for it.
the hard part is building the time machine.
best of luck to you.
if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
if you could get a GUARANTEED return, that would mean the investment carried NO risk.
If the investment carried NO risk, why would there be a large return?
do you see how the question is silly when you think about it?
there's no way to know what any investment might return over time. You can know what investments have provided 15% per year as some have told you. Problem is, those are returns of the past, not the future. You want future returns because you can no longer get those past returns. Unfortunately, no one knows what the future returns will be. That won't stop people from telling you such lies, especially if you ask them for it.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months.
The Sensible Steward
-
- Posts: 18499
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 6:05 am
- Location: 26 miles, 385 yards west of Copley Square
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Set up a payday loan business.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
-
- Posts: 1594
- Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:44 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Because they are Bogleheads who wouldn’t pick up a hundred dollar bill off the street because “if it was real someone would have picked it up already”arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
I didn't know you were running a flavor of it. It's really risky in my opinion when the bonds crash.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Same reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
You've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:25 pm PSLDX
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fun ... mbol=PSLDX
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
His point was if it didn't come with risk and anyone was guaranteed to be able to do it, then everyone would and we'd all be earning 15% annual returns every year.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:07 pmSame reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Peace on earth or 15% ROI for 30 years? Not likely on either account.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Just buy the dip FS style. Problem solved.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:09 pmHis point was if it didn't come with risk and anyone was guaranteed to be able to do it, then everyone would and we'd all be earning 15% annual returns every year.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:07 pmSame reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:12 pmJust buy the dip FS style. Problem solved.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:09 pmHis point was if it didn't come with risk and anyone was guaranteed to be able to do it, then everyone would and we'd all be earning 15% annual returns every year.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:07 pmSame reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
-
- Posts: 347
- Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:40 am
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
My 401K up 37% this year. So 15% is possible in the current market unless we start to see down trend.
-
- Posts: 1594
- Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:44 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
As far as I can tell, OP did not ask for a guarantee or a time machine.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:08 pmYou've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:25 pm PSLDX
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fun ... mbol=PSLDX
There are no guarantees in life. There are more and less likely probabilities.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from my checking account next year? Pretty close to zero.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from the S&P 500 next year? Somewhat higher than zero.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from a leveraged equity index in a world where the Fed has committed to keeping interest rates low, where the entire economy is dependent upon those interest rates remaining low, and where there is no alternative besides stocks? Again, somewhat higher than zero.
I make my life choices based on reasonably educated probabilities, not “guarantees”. How do you make yours?
Last edited by Tingting1013 on Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Annualized?willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Duplicatedwillthrill81 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
I was going to suggest that but then realized OP is interested in just 15%.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:12 pmJust buy the dip FS style. Problem solved.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:09 pmHis point was if it didn't come with risk and anyone was guaranteed to be able to do it, then everyone would and we'd all be earning 15% annual returns every year.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:07 pmSame reason why people won't go 100/0 because they're afraid of volatility in portfolio. Not unreasonable, but people do make tradeoffs like this all the time.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:00 pm if anyone could earn 15% yearly, then why wouldn't everyone? why would anyone invest in anything except for that one investment?
Diversification is protection against ignorance - WB.
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:17 pmAs far as I can tell, OP did not ask for a guarantee or a time machine.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:08 pmYou've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:25 pm PSLDX
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fun ... mbol=PSLDX
There are no guarantees in life. There are more and less likely probabilities.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from my checking account next year? Pretty close to zero.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from the S&P 500 next year? Somewhat higher than zero.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from a leveraged equity index in a world where the Fed has committed to keeping interest rates low, where the entire economy is dependent upon those interest rates remaining low, and where there is no alternative besides stocks? Again, somewhat higher than zero.
I make my life choices based on reasonably educated probabilities, not “guarantees”. How do you make yours?
It is highly unlikely to be successful.
I'm not speaking about how to make choices. I'm speaking to you answering a question with an answer that is very likely to be wrong.
Maybe semantics to some, but since the OP asked this question he is presumably a beginner and would very likely think an affirmative answer like yours is likely to give him 15% per year over the next 30 years.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Why do you think so? 87% of active fund managers trail the SPX but the flipside is 13% of them beat the market.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.
It is highly unlikely to be successful.
-
- Posts: 1594
- Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:44 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
There are clear theoretical reasons why that particular mutual fund can achieve the 15% target over the next 30 years. It’s not a stock-picking fund. There are many threads on BH dissecting it, if you are interested.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pmYou listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:17 pmAs far as I can tell, OP did not ask for a guarantee or a time machine.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:08 pmYou've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:25 pm PSLDX
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fun ... mbol=PSLDX
There are no guarantees in life. There are more and less likely probabilities.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from my checking account next year? Pretty close to zero.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from the S&P 500 next year? Somewhat higher than zero.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from a leveraged equity index in a world where the Fed has committed to keeping interest rates low, where the entire economy is dependent upon those interest rates remaining low, and where there is no alternative besides stocks? Again, somewhat higher than zero.
I make my life choices based on reasonably educated probabilities, not “guarantees”. How do you make yours?
It is highly unlikely to be successful.
I'm not speaking about how to make choices. I'm speaking to you answering a question with an answer that is very likely to be wrong.
Maybe semantics to some, but since the OP asked this question he is presumably a beginner and would very likely think an affirmative answer like yours is likely to give him 15% per year over the next 30 years.
I actually have the majority of my seven figure net worth in this fund. If we are both around in 30 years I’d love to see which one of us is correct.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Lottery tickets
Roulette
Picking the next Amazon
Sport Betting
Last edited by JoeRetire on Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Cumulative.jarjarM wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:19 pmAnnualized?willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months.
The Sensible Steward
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Yes. 13% beat the market. In a given year. But it isn't the same fund managers each year. And even if done over 30 years, that still means he's highly unlikely to be invested in a fund run by one if them.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:27 pmWhy do you think so? 87% of active fund managers trail the SPX but the flipside is 13% of them beat the market.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.
It is highly unlikely to be successful.
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Interest rates on high grade bonds are around 2-3%. There isn't anything you can do to earn more than that without taking risk, which means a significant chance you won't even earn that (and might even lose money...a lot).
The long-term average return of the stock market is something like 10% or 12% a year (depending how you want to measure it, the average compound return is 10% or the mean value of the extremely volatile annual returns is something like 12%). Most people expect that starting from where we are today, returns like that going forward are unlikely.
If you want something more than what the market is offering, I think you need to offer something the market can't. I don't think the securities markets reward for simply taking "risk" of the coin-flip type that anyone can take. I do think if you have better information in some particular area, you might be able to profit from that, but that's not most people. Most people would accumulate a higher portfolio by focusing their efforts on their day job providing something people want in that respective "market", cutting their expenses, and saving more money.
"The safest way to try and get what you want is to try and deserve what you want."-Charlie Munger
The long-term average return of the stock market is something like 10% or 12% a year (depending how you want to measure it, the average compound return is 10% or the mean value of the extremely volatile annual returns is something like 12%). Most people expect that starting from where we are today, returns like that going forward are unlikely.
If you want something more than what the market is offering, I think you need to offer something the market can't. I don't think the securities markets reward for simply taking "risk" of the coin-flip type that anyone can take. I do think if you have better information in some particular area, you might be able to profit from that, but that's not most people. Most people would accumulate a higher portfolio by focusing their efforts on their day job providing something people want in that respective "market", cutting their expenses, and saving more money.
"The safest way to try and get what you want is to try and deserve what you want."-Charlie Munger
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
Maybe there are theoretical reasons why that fund can achieve a 15% return. It is still highly unlikely to happen and therefore shouldn't be recommended when somebody asks how to achieve a 15% return.Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:28 pmThere are clear theoretical reasons why that particular mutual fund can achieve the 15% target over the next 30 years. It’s not a stock-picking fund. There are many threads on BH dissecting it, if you are interested.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pmYou listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:17 pmAs far as I can tell, OP did not ask for a guarantee or a time machine.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:08 pmYou've provided the fund, now can you let me borrow your time machine so I can get those returns?Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:25 pm PSLDX
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fun ... mbol=PSLDX
There are no guarantees in life. There are more and less likely probabilities.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from my checking account next year? Pretty close to zero.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from the S&P 500 next year? Somewhat higher than zero.
What is the probability of me earning 15% from a leveraged equity index in a world where the Fed has committed to keeping interest rates low, where the entire economy is dependent upon those interest rates remaining low, and where there is no alternative besides stocks? Again, somewhat higher than zero.
I make my life choices based on reasonably educated probabilities, not “guarantees”. How do you make yours?
It is highly unlikely to be successful.
I'm not speaking about how to make choices. I'm speaking to you answering a question with an answer that is very likely to be wrong.
Maybe semantics to some, but since the OP asked this question he is presumably a beginner and would very likely think an affirmative answer like yours is likely to give him 15% per year over the next 30 years.
I actually have the majority of my seven figure net worth in this fund. If we are both around in 30 years I’d love to see which one of us is correct.
I'll check out the other threads.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
It's basically 2x S&P500 2x long-term bonds as far as I understand. Think of it like HEDGEFUNDIE but 2x instead of 3x.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:30 pmYes. 13% beat the market. In a given year. But it isn't the same fund managers each year. And even if done over 30 years, that still means he's highly unlikely to be invested in a fund run by one if them.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:27 pmWhy do you think so? 87% of active fund managers trail the SPX but the flipside is 13% of them beat the market.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.
It is highly unlikely to be successful.
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
I have no idea what that means, honestly.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:33 pmIt's basically 2x S&P500 2x long-term bonds as far as I understand. Think of it like HEDGEFUNDIE but 2x instead of 3x.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:30 pmYes. 13% beat the market. In a given year. But it isn't the same fund managers each year. And even if done over 30 years, that still means he's highly unlikely to be invested in a fund run by one if them.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:27 pmWhy do you think so? 87% of active fund managers trail the SPX but the flipside is 13% of them beat the market.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:23 pm You listed a mutual fund as the answer to the question of how to go about earning 15% per year over 30 years.
It is highly unlikely to be successful.
But I don't have to in order to know that it's likely to not attain 15% annual returns over the next 30 years.
-
- Posts: 9479
- Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:16 pm
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
'If', not 'when'. The strategy is dependent on the 'flight to safety' aspect of bonds, not their yields.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:06 pmI didn't know you were running a flavor of it. It's really risky in my opinion when the bonds crash.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:01 pm Try Hedgefundie's Excellent Adventure. In my own version of it, my returns have been +56% over the last 17 months.
Earning a higher return than the market is not the same as 'beating the market'. It simply requires taking on more risk than the market, including the risk of a massive drawdown that cannot be practically recovered from. That's why I'm only doing this with a small portion of my portfolio and with Roth funds (i.e. in case it's very successful).
The Sensible Steward
Re: I want 15% yearly ROI. How to go about it?
For perspective. According to the SPY calculator with dividend reinvestment from June 2019 through December 2020 return is around 32%