I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

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Scott S
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Scott S »

I sure hope OP is right about Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple! :D

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ActionJackson
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by ActionJackson »

OP.

I couldn't make it through the whole thread, and I'm hoping someone else mentioned this already but, American car companies have a bad track record of going bankrupt. Only two, of the dozen or so small and large companies that have existed through the decades, are unscathed by the "B" word.

This time might be different though.

Good Luck!
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Valuethinker »

ActionJackson wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:20 pm OP.

I couldn't make it through the whole thread, and I'm hoping someone else mentioned this already but, American car companies have a bad track record of going bankrupt. Only two, of the dozen or so small and large companies that have existed through the decades, are unscathed by the "B" word.

This time might be different though.

Good Luck!
The argument runs that Tesla is a software-systems company, that has fundamentally disrupted the automotive ecosystem.

We shall see. I can see the disruptive nature of Electric Vehicles. Clay Christensen (who invented the concept of Disruptive Innovation) says that Tesla is not an industry disrupter - but I have not read his arguments as to why.

The big car makers are pivoting towards EVs. Competition is going to get hotter.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by sgr000 »

Valuethinker wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:47 amClay Christensen (who invented the concept of Disruptive Innovation) says that Tesla is not an industry disrupter - but I have not read his arguments as to why.
Said, past tense. Unfortunately, Clay died last year. A very kind man.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by 4nursebee »

sgr000 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:06 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:47 amClay Christensen (who invented the concept of Disruptive Innovation) says that Tesla is not an industry disrupter - but I have not read his arguments as to why.
Said, past tense. Unfortunately, Clay died last year. A very kind man.
So much of what he taught could be applied to Tesla though
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Valuethinker »

sgr000 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:06 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:47 amClay Christensen (who invented the concept of Disruptive Innovation) says that Tesla is not an industry disrupter - but I have not read his arguments as to why.
Said, past tense. Unfortunately, Clay died last year. A very kind man.
I had not realised. He wasn't that old?

The professor of Industrial Organization who introduced me to Christensen died at age 56.

His last works were about "how will you measure your life"?

I believe he was a Mormon, and he definitely lived the values of his church, from all I could gather. A good man. Were you professionally associated with him?

Thank you for telling me.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by sgr000 »

Valuethinker wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:07 am
sgr000 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:06 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:47 amClay Christensen (who invented the concept of Disruptive Innovation) says that Tesla is not an industry disrupter - but I have not read his arguments as to why.
Said, past tense. Unfortunately, Clay died last year. A very kind man.
I had not realised. He wasn't that old?

The professor of Industrial Organization who introduced me to Christensen died at age 56.

His last works were about "how will you measure your life"?

I believe he was a Mormon, and he definitely lived the values of his church, from all I could gather. A good man. Were you professionally associated with him?

Thank you for telling me.
He was 67 last year when it happened. He'd really been through the mill: stroke, heart attack, cancer, and finally a second cancer. Basically an incredibly tough guy.

He always seemed to me to be about 11 feet tall. Very physically imposing... until he opened his mouth. Then you heard this incredibly kind man who was sincerely happy to see you, wanted to know all about you, how you're doing, and how he could help. It was supremely clear the guy had considerable emotional intelligence, was good at putting people at ease, and did so from an urge to kindness.

I kept trying to figure out how he could become a political leader, but never could figure out a path for that. He totally lacked the manipulative side or the killer instinct I see in most politicians I've met. He wasn't naive about people, but he saw your good side clearly and would be relentlessly kind in attempting to help you develop that.

How will you measure your life? was in 2019. I think The Prosperity Paradox came after that, in the same year. I haven't seen any journal articles for several years before that.

I knew him through our religious community, and from a decade or so of living a few doors down from his family, here in deepest darkest Boston suburbia. I still bump into his wife from time to time, and chit-chat with one of his sons every couple weeks. I wasn't professionally associated with him, I was in grad school nearby doing a PhD in physics at the same time as he was doing his PhD in business.

We talked a little bit once about his thesis, that bubble memory failed to disrupt hard disk markets because the hard disk manufacturers saw it coming and disrupted their own production enough to get better fast enough to get ahead and still stay profitable. I didn't like that analysis, because I thought the situation was more like how early gas engine auto manufacturers conspired to put early electric and steam automobiles out of business through various shady means. (E.g., getting steam automobiles with pilot lights declared fire hazards and thereby banned from parking garages.) Clay looked at that example and decided instead that gas engines winning the battle was an example of standardization. B-school folk seldom want to talk about the dark side of capitalism.

I'm happy to say he ignored my sincere but half-baked advice and did very well with his way of seeing things.

I've never met anybody who didn't like him.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Valuethinker »

sgr000 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:31 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:07 am
sgr000 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:06 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:47 amClay Christensen (who invented the concept of Disruptive Innovation) says that Tesla is not an industry disrupter - but I have not read his arguments as to why.
Said, past tense. Unfortunately, Clay died last year. A very kind man.
I had not realised. He wasn't that old?

The professor of Industrial Organization who introduced me to Christensen died at age 56.

His last works were about "how will you measure your life"?

I believe he was a Mormon, and he definitely lived the values of his church, from all I could gather. A good man. Were you professionally associated with him?

Thank you for telling me.
He was 67 last year when it happened. He'd really been through the mill: stroke, heart attack, cancer, and finally a second cancer. Basically an incredibly tough guy.

He always seemed to me to be about 11 feet tall. Very physically imposing... until he opened his mouth. Then you heard this incredibly kind man who was sincerely happy to see you, wanted to know all about you, how you're doing, and how he could help. It was supremely clear the guy had considerable emotional intelligence, was good at putting people at ease, and did so from an urge to kindness.

I kept trying to figure out how he could become a political leader, but never could figure out a path for that. He totally lacked the manipulative side or the killer instinct I see in most politicians I've met. He wasn't naive about people, but he saw your good side clearly and would be relentlessly kind in attempting to help you develop that.

How will you measure your life? was in 2019. I think The Prosperity Paradox came after that, in the same year. I haven't seen any journal articles for several years before that.

I knew him through our religious community, and from a decade or so of living a few doors down from his family, here in deepest darkest Boston suburbia. I still bump into his wife from time to time, and chit-chat with one of his sons every couple weeks. I wasn't professionally associated with him, I was in grad school nearby doing a PhD in physics at the same time as he was doing his PhD in business.

We talked a little bit once about his thesis, that bubble memory failed to disrupt hard disk markets because the hard disk manufacturers saw it coming and disrupted their own production enough to get better fast enough to get ahead and still stay profitable. I didn't like that analysis, because I thought the situation was more like how early gas engine auto manufacturers conspired to put early electric and steam automobiles out of business through various shady means. (E.g., getting steam automobiles with pilot lights declared fire hazards and thereby banned from parking garages.) Clay looked at that example and decided instead that gas engines winning the battle was an example of standardization. B-school folk seldom want to talk about the dark side of capitalism.

I'm happy to say he ignored my sincere but half-baked advice and did very well with his way of seeing things.

I've never met anybody who didn't like him.
Thank you for that.

"dark side of capitalism". Quite. B School people are definitely lined up with one side.

One of the main criticisms of Michael Porter's work was that the strategies it proposed were illegal under competition law.

On the internet, so far, competition authorities have held back. Companies like Google and Facebook spend a lot of time evaluating, and a lot of money buying, interesting startups and early stage cos. WhatsAp, Instagram etc. Absorbing their own competition. However it did not work for Murdoch (MySpace) nor for Yahoo (Flickr + others).

It's clear the people running those companies have read Porter and Christensen, and are applying those lessons.

"Disrupt" has of course become a mantra for every early stage internet company. Take some existing societal economic process - like booking taxis -- and disrupt it.
rickyfris
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by rickyfris »

Any updates OP?
bugleheadd
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by bugleheadd »

Hope OP paid off that loan
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Jags4186 »

bugleheadd wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:55 am Hope OP paid off that loan
If he bought on Nov 17 he bought at 441. It’s at 714. I think he’s fine.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

I'm fine, still holding 117 TSLA shares.
I had a look at the MSCI World Momentum Index and learned that I own the top 4 positions ;-)

I haven't repaid anything of the loan early - that would mean selling TSLA shares, and that's not my plan.
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Schlabba
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Schlabba »

herbert_21 wrote: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:00 am I'm fine, still holding 117 TSLA shares.
I had a look at the MSCI World Momentum Index and learned that I own the top 4 positions ;-)

I haven't repaid anything of the loan early - that would mean selling TSLA shares, and that's not my plan.
Tesla dropping from near 900 to 600 is the reason a lot of people don't like to hold individual stocks. The volatility is much greater than an index fund. If you're still hanging in there right now you got what it takes to be a stock picker!
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by humbledinvestor »

Diamond hands.
Sinsji
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Sinsji »

Yeah, would be interesting to hear whether the recent 'dip' changed OPs view of Tesla prospects as a long term investment?
chris319
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by chris319 »

Rather than slog through all five pages of this thread ...

Speaking from 40+ years of investing experience, eventually you'll learn your lesson. Maybe not this year or next, maybe not in 5 years or 10, but eventually you will.

I remember vividly when CSCO was one of the darlings of the dot-com bubble in 1999 - 2000. It shot way up and then ran out of rocket fuel when the dot-com bubble went kablooey and it came crashing down to Earth. It still hasn't returned to its dot-com highs these many years later.

Now you're on the hook for the principal and interest of your 10-year(!) loan. If TSLA doesn't perform as you hope it will, it will turn out to have been an imprudent move. You can offer all the rationalizations you want, but the bottom line is that you and I and no one else owns a perfectly-working crystal ball, so we have no idea what the future holds for TSLA. None. It could very well come crashing down to Earth like CSCO did, or move sideways and go nowhere for years.

I traded individual stocks for many years and now consider it to be for the birds. Moving completely to index funds was the best investment decision I ever made. Jack Bogle's idea of unmanaged index funds was genius and has more than proven itself over several decades.

If you absolutely must add some "spice" to your portfolio, have a look at SSO or QLD, both 2x leveraged funds, or maybe a blend of the two. I won't go so far as to say you get free leverage, but you get leverage without taking on personal debt. Whether a loan or margin, with debt you have to pay interest and eventually pay back the principal. A couple of margin calls will cure you of the margin/debt disease.

I still "trade" stocks but only on paper. I have no actual money in individual stocks. Paper trading is fun and it scratches my stock-picking "itch". My two paper picks are NKE and QCOM. They have done well but my real-money portfolio has done better (or else I'd be pissed :)

Best wishes in all of your future endeavors.
Financial decisions based on emotion often turn out to be bad decisions.
hoofaman
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by hoofaman »

Are you really going to hold when it falls bellow the price you paid?
chris319
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by chris319 »

I watched Ron Barrons first and second interview on CNBC. He convinced me. He said sth. like he was pretty sure that over a long period, Tesla would 10x investment. He had missed out on Amazon, but wasn't willing to miss on Tesla.
Oh, great. Owning a stock because some guy on TV says it will go up, up and up. If he's such a great stock picker, we have to ask why he missed AMZN.

Be sure to ask Ron Barron for next week's winning lottery numbers.

I'm not saying he's doing anything illegal or fraudulent, but you should read this:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pumpanddump.asp
Financial decisions based on emotion often turn out to be bad decisions.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Peaceful »

Only about 2% of vehicles sold in the U.S. last year (2020) were EV, and by far, the vast majority of those were Teslas. There are still a range of tax incentives and manufacturer incentives affecting those sales, too.

This is clearly still a niche product. The bottleneck seems to be not just the lack of publicly-available charging stations, but the fact that it takes so long to "fill up the tank" compared to an ICE.

EVs make sense for hobbyists, or perhaps private fleets where companies can establishe their own closed eco systems of vehicles & charging stations. Or perhaps as "second cars" for people who are pretty sure they can use them for local driving only, but have an ICE for long distance driving.

From another perspective, they are not selling well because for whatever reason, they are too expensive, even with the available tax credits and manufacturer's incentives.

If Tesla can transition into something else like batteries for power storage for utilities, O.K. But for now it's perceived as an EV company.

Now with the Texas power outage, it has hilighted the vulnerability of electrical vehicles in the event of a power grid problem, too.

Congratulations to all those who made bank on Tesla (I'm not one of them).
"Be fearful when others are greedy, be even MORE fearful when others are fearful."
Sinsji
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Sinsji »

chris319 wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:15 am
I watched Ron Barrons first and second interview on CNBC. He convinced me. He said sth. like he was pretty sure that over a long period, Tesla would 10x investment. He had missed out on Amazon, but wasn't willing to miss on Tesla.
Oh, great. Owning a stock because some guy on TV says it will go up, up and up. If he's such a great stock picker, we have to ask why he missed AMZN.

Be sure to ask Ron Barron for next week's winning lottery numbers.

I'm not saying he's doing anything illegal or fraudulent, but you should read this:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pumpanddump.asp

Mr Barron actually sold at least part of his TSLA stocks himself, despite a supposed 2 trillion market cap target for Tesla :wink:
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by harikaried »

We didn't take a loan out /to/ buy TSLA, but we do have something like a 10yr loan too that we could buy TSLA in my Roth IRA with some mental accounting. With the recent dips in spite of recent improvements, I've been thinking about getting in with about the same amount of shares as OP!
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Schlabba »

Peaceful wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:38 am Only about 2% of vehicles sold in the U.S. last year (2020) were EV, and by far, the vast majority of those were Teslas. There are still a range of tax incentives and manufacturer incentives affecting those sales, too.

This is clearly still a niche product. The bottleneck seems to be not just the lack of publicly-available charging stations, but the fact that it takes so long to "fill up the tank" compared to an ICE.

EVs make sense for hobbyists, or perhaps private fleets where companies can establishe their own closed eco systems of vehicles & charging stations. Or perhaps as "second cars" for people who are pretty sure they can use them for local driving only, but have an ICE for long distance driving.

From another perspective, they are not selling well because for whatever reason, they are too expensive, even with the available tax credits and manufacturer's incentives.

If Tesla can transition into something else like batteries for power storage for utilities, O.K. But for now it's perceived as an EV company.

Now with the Texas power outage, it has hilighted the vulnerability of electrical vehicles in the event of a power grid problem, too.

Congratulations to all those who made bank on Tesla (I'm not one of them).
We can debate about whether it is a great company or not, but my big problem with them is the valuation. Maybe it changed by now, but Tesla had a larger market cap than the next 9 car companies combined. That includes Toyota and Volkswagen!

So if you do a relative valuation by comparing it to its peers, its overpriced.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by hoofaman »

harikaried wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:43 am We didn't take a loan out /to/ buy TSLA, but we do have something like a 10yr loan too that we could buy TSLA in my Roth IRA with some mental accounting. With the recent dips in spite of recent improvements, I've been thinking about getting in with about the same amount of shares as OP!

What recent dips, it’s still up 200% from June. Might as well just buy scratch offs
Valuethinker
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Valuethinker »

Let me preface this by saying that I cannot defend the Tesla share price, which has left all conventional valuation parameters behind.
Peaceful wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:38 am Only about 2% of vehicles sold in the U.S. last year (2020) were EV, and by far, the vast majority of those were Teslas. There are still a range of tax incentives and manufacturer incentives affecting those sales, too.

This is clearly still a niche product. The bottleneck seems to be not just the lack of publicly-available charging stations, but the fact that it takes so long to "fill up the tank" compared to an ICE.

EVs make sense for hobbyists, or perhaps private fleets where companies can establishe their own closed eco systems of vehicles & charging stations. Or perhaps as "second cars" for people who are pretty sure they can use them for local driving only, but have an ICE for long distance driving.
The UK plans to ban the sale of Internal Combustion Engine vehicles from 2035 - that date may be brought forward. We are not the only European country that has announced such plans. I have little doubt that by 2035 Japan and China will be in the same place (not sure what the Chinese plan is right now but China has a way of deciding things for the next 5 Year Plan, and then there is this frantic movement to make them so).

This is a Disruptive Innovation. In the sense that it does not do all the things the incumbent industry standard does. But it does provide "transportation services" and it does some things better-- and the pace of improvement has not slackened. And it turns out that most people, most of the time, use their cars to drive to work or shopping, over relatively short distances. (I would agree that US geography is more challenging than Western Europe or much of East Asia in this regard).

US petrol prices are low by world standards. Another factor is the vehicle economics look better in countries where gasoline is more expensive (which is just about every developed country).

I agree it's still a niche. But it is "Crossing the Chasm" (to use another tech industry concept) and becoming a mainstream item.

I have honestly been stunned at how many electric cars I have counted in the last 12 months or so - Teslas and BMW i3s primarily (those are the easiest to "make" with a glance, so that may be why I notice them). Remembering that a Tesla probably costs in GBP what you would pay in dollars for it (ie at least 30% more).
From another perspective, they are not selling well because for whatever reason, they are too expensive, even with the available tax credits and manufacturer's incentives.

If Tesla can transition into something else like batteries for power storage for utilities, O.K. But for now it's perceived as an EV company.
Now with the Texas power outage, it has hilighted the vulnerability of electrical vehicles in the event of a power grid problem, too.

Congratulations to all those who made bank on Tesla (I'm not one of them).
I think Tesla is a vehicle company & I see the other parts as a distraction - lacking evident synergies. I can also see why I might be completely wrong in that view.

Given how much they cost, Tesla sells stunningly well - I think I saw some numbers that they were more than one-half of the US car market in their price bracket? Outselling Mercedes, BMW, even Lexus?

It's not a mass market vehicle price. But, then, the way we buy cars (as an expression of our consumption tastes) has never been about basic transportation at least not since the Model T** (my great grandfather's daughters were the first ladies to drive in their little bit of rural North America).

Petrol stations don't work in power failures, either.

Texas and the power outage is something of an outlier because of course lots of other States and Provinces had that bad weather (including 10% of Texas that is not in the ERCOT domain) - but were prepared. And their grids are interconnected by High Voltage lines, whereas Texas' are, deliberately, not connected to other grids.

It does underline that there's an infrastructure problem in the USA in terms of reliability compared to other countries -- only part of that is climatic.

** General Motors beat Ford by realising that people wanted more than a basic mono-coloured transportation vehicle.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Stork »

Peaceful wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:38 am
EVs make sense for hobbyists, or perhaps private fleets where companies can establishe their own closed eco systems of vehicles & charging stations. Or perhaps as "second cars" for people who are pretty sure they can use them for local driving only, but have an ICE for long distance driving.

From another perspective, they are not selling well because for whatever reason, they are too expensive, even with the available tax credits and manufacturer's incentives.

If Tesla can transition into something else like batteries for power storage for utilities, O.K. But for now it's perceived as an EV company.
For a lot of people, an EV makes sense as the second car: predictable driving patters, mostly urban traffic. You have high upfront cost but low "fuel" and maintenance cost.

Tesla also produces Powerwalls, powerbanks for the home. I would think they share a lot of IP with the cars, and it is a good use for batteries which do not have full capacity anymore
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

Sinsji wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:57 am Yeah, would be interesting to hear whether the recent 'dip' changed OPs view of Tesla prospects as a long term investment?
No.

129 shares. Diamond hands ;-)

Actually, I have to admit it was at times a bit painful. We're talking about roughly 25.000 € of stock portfolio value.
However, I managed to ask myself if anything has changed, and because it hasn't, I decided to keep my shares and do nothing until the share price hits $600

When it hit below $600 I panicked and did nothing.

So I didn't buy the dip, but those 129 shares made 20% in one day after the dip.

All is good.

Barron sold shares for his funds after making 15x. This is a wise and responsible thing to do, called risk management. He did not sell one of his perosnal share, and he doesn't plan to do so before another 3x until 2030.

There are no peers for Tesla. When it comes to autonomy, Baidu and Waymo and Mobileye are the "would-be" competitors. But Tesla is the only FSD you can afford as a consumer, it's by far the best product and it has a bright future.

If you print the 50% CAGR on a logarithmic scale, and go back one step, you'll notice that with the recent 40% drop Tesla hasn't left its long term trajectory.

I didn't have the guts to go all-in below $600, but I was seriously considering selling some other shares: The "problem" was I panicked, if I can't make a rational decision I always have the luxury of doing nothing. This is what an investor is payed for: spending capital, taking risk and doing nothing.
Last edited by herbert_21 on Mon Mar 15, 2021 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

Thanks for the advice. Let's hope that TSLA doesn't become Microsoft in 1999, Cisco or Allianz:
If you absolutely must add some "spice" to your portfolio, have a look at SSO or QLD, both 2x leveraged funds, or maybe a blend of the two. I won't go so far as to say you get free leverage, but you get leverage without taking on personal debt. Whether a loan or margin, with debt you have to pay interest and eventually pay back the principal. A couple of margin calls will cure you of the margin/debt disease.
Status update:
Flatex offered me 2,9% and I accepted. Reason being is, with the recent GME shortselling saga, I finally came to the understanding that I don't want to and will not hand out my TSLA shares to my broker to lend them market makers who sell them to shortsellers. I am referring to the better interest rate of 1,25% that Degiro would give me, which would allow them to lend my shares.

For me a combination of an "unsecured loan" and very little margin in the portfolio is the best combination. I could loose a lot of money, but I won't be margin called. This is important, as Tesla is very volatile.

Also, I refinanced my 10 year loan with another 10 year loan, and the interest rate is 2.8% - I am happy with that.

Expect an update every month or two here in the thread.
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

Still holding, 133 shares, no plans to sell.
ericsk
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by ericsk »

herbert_21 wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:13 am Still holding, 133 shares, no plans to sell.
I am also planning to buy some! I believe that the dip right now is only temporary..
Do you think that the giga factory opening later this year will impact stock? I assume that it would be a lot of hype, especially fulfilling the volume issue we have had
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by FIBoston »

Peaceful wrote: Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:38 am From another perspective, they are not selling well because for whatever reason, they are too expensive, even with the available tax credits and manufacturer's incentives.
Anyone who thinks Teslas are not selling well is not paying attention.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by harikaried »

ericsk wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:25 amDo you think that the giga factory opening later this year will impact stock?
There most likely will be some impact but unclear good or bad. There's multiple factories being built with different local regulatory issues as well as new manufacturing processes, e.g., 4680 production, casting, local supply chain ramp. Things did seem to go relatively smoothly in Shanghai, but who knows how it will roll out in Berlin and Texas.
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

Bought 25 shares at about 605$ (515€)
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

Very happy to see TSLA above 700$ again. Bullish.
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

Not selling a share.
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SmileyFace
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Post by SmileyFace »

herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:29 am There is no such thing as a "tech bubble".
Hmmm....
What would you call March 10, 2000?
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

Update:
Own 113 TSLA Shares
Bought a Model 3 LR

My goals have changed slightly. I now know that my partner and me cannot have children. We tried several times in a fertility clinic.

I'm 40 and now decided to balance between spending and saving a bit differently, in other words: enjoy my life and buy the best instead of the cheapest. Best car I can think of is Model 3 LR, so I ordered it.
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Post by herbert_21 »

SmileyFace wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 5:46 am
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:29 am There is no such thing as a "tech bubble".
Hmmm....
What would you call March 10, 2000?
You could defer investing with that argument in 2009,2010,2011.. and have been consistently wrong.
Market timing doesn't work.

(When you posted that comment, the Nasdaq 100 Index was at 13633,50 and today it's at 14762,58 which is 8,2% higher)
Ramjet
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Ramjet »

herbert_21 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 7:03 am Update:
Own 113 TSLA Shares
Bought a Model 3 LR

My goals have changed slightly. I now know that my partner and me cannot have children. We tried several times in a fertility clinic.

I'm 40 and now decided to balance between spending and saving a bit differently, in other words: enjoy my life and buy the best instead of the cheapest. Best car I can think of is Model 3 LR, so I ordered it.
What are you up?
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herbert_21
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

My AMZN shares are down 8% today.

Hedging my TSLA shares with FANG works both ways: Those 8% eat up the full 5% TSLA share price increase.

I should have gone all-in TLSA at 550$ ;-)
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SmileyFace
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares [Austria]

Post by SmileyFace »

herbert_21 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 7:04 am
SmileyFace wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 5:46 am
herbert_21 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:29 am There is no such thing as a "tech bubble".
Hmmm....
What would you call March 10, 2000?
You could defer investing with that argument in 2009,2010,2011.. and have been consistently wrong.
Market timing doesn't work.

(When you posted that comment, the Nasdaq 100 Index was at 13633,50 and today it's at 14762,58 which is 8,2% higher)
Market timing doesn't work and you shouldn't defer investing but that has nothing to do with the fact that bubbles have and do sometimes exist.
JDave
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by JDave »

You are borrowing money to gamble. If that's what you want to do, go ahead, but be realistic about what you are doing.
smalliebigs
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by smalliebigs »

I'm really sorry to hear about you and your partner not being able to have children. For many of us, investing always has a component of passing on our rewards to the next generation. I hope you enjoy your life and live to the fullest.

I don't know about the rest of you, but that news would just way overshadowed anything with regards to investment returns and whatnot for me.
VWCE
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by VWCE »

JDave wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:38 pm You are borrowing money to gamble. If that's what you want to do, go ahead, but be realistic about what you are doing.
This.

Why are you on a bogleheads forum in the first place?
Wouldn't it be more beneficial to you to be on wallstreetbets or reddit/stocks with your peers?

I don't get why someone would come to a forum about index investing and make a thread about his speculations...
This must surely be a troll...
Laurizas
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Laurizas »

VWCE wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 12:14 pm I don't get why someone would come to a forum about index investing and make a thread about his speculations...
He wants to know whether he is speculating or investing:
herbert_21 wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:53 am Am I speculating or investing? To be continued.
vladivanov
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by vladivanov »

In my opinion Tesla is not a Technology company nor a car company as much as it is a Veblen/Fashion company, much like Apple, Musk is a very good salesman and it hugely benefits from a variety of political factors, like concern for the environment.

So, you have a lot of hype, a lot of political risk related to climate policy, as well as other companies moving into the electric car market.

I doubt they will ever be as large as Volkswagen, Toyota or Ford but they can probably become an upmarket, luxury brand, but a P/E ratio of 300 and above is insane.
ZenInside
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by ZenInside »

Let's agree with a couple of things:

1) Tesla is a tech company. When you think of this you need to understand how Elon's mind work and keep in mind that he started a plethora of companies that at the first glance look disconnected but at some point the dots will connect in a very interesting, if not scary, way. What Tesla has now is thousands of terra-bytes of data that nobody else in the auto industry don's have. While all other auto-makers look like they are catching up, they are building just cars, while Tesla is building something that i can equalize to a Kubernetes pod. He is building transportation in the cloud.

2) Tesla is just a tool for Elon. Yes, it is a tool that everything else depends on so its success is a must, this is why he spends more time into it than SpaceX but you will have to keep in mind that this is transitory.

3) Tesla made more profit from crypto trading than car manufacturing. I love how Elon understood that the crypto is not regulated so he keeps bumping and taking profit on some currencies to Tesla profit.

4) Ultimate goal for Elon is to help humanity become a multi-planetary civilization. This is his core belief and he couldn't care less about shareholders, markets and whatever you can think of from investor perspective, he is living in a meta-reality that us, the normal average humans, cannot understand but as civilization we are damn lucky to have someone like him.

So if I were you, I would keep 1 (ONE) Tesla stock as a statement and endorsement for a better future and relocated everything else in a more day to day business.
harikaried
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by harikaried »

ZenInside wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:09 pmTesla made more profit from crypto trading than car manufacturing
How much profit do you think Tesla has made this year, which is when Tesla bought and sold some "digital assets?"

Looking at the most recent TSLA 10-Q:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 210630.htm

Proceeds from sales of digital assets: $272 million
Automotive segment Revenues: $21,052 million
Automotive segment Gross profit: $5,180 million

It looks like Tesla still has some crypto, but it's only 2% of total assets.
Digital assets, net: $1,311 million
Total assets: $55,146 million
Valuethinker
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by Valuethinker »

Laurizas wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:06 pm
VWCE wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 12:14 pm I don't get why someone would come to a forum about index investing and make a thread about his speculations...
He wants to know whether he is speculating or investing:
herbert_21 wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:53 am Am I speculating or investing? To be continued.
I felt that he was seeking validation for his views and actions, rather than constructive feedback and criticism of same.

The reality is that what he is doing does not accord with Boglehead principles.
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by herbert_21 »

60% of my portfolio growth is in Tesla

I now invest in the S&P 500 Index, but I also bought some Bitcoin (about 5k). Total gains within 2.years are about 35%

I still use some margin. I still "hedge" my Tesla shares with Amazon and MSFT. This worked really well during the last months, when all growth stocks took a hit.

Here are a few words about my motivation:
I still believe I am underinvested now. In November, I'll get 40. I now have about 95k in equity, 5k in Bitcoin and own 50% of my house. I will keep investing about 700€-1500€ every month.

And my Tesla Model 3 LR will arrive in two weeks.

Life is good.
sjl333
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Re: I took a 10yr loan to buy TSLA shares

Post by sjl333 »

herbert_21 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:18 pm 60% of my portfolio growth is in Tesla

I now invest in the S&P 500 Index, but I also bought some Bitcoin (about 5k). Total gains within 2.years are about 35%

I still use some margin. I still "hedge" my Tesla shares with Amazon and MSFT. This worked really well during the last months, when all growth stocks took a hit.

Here are a few words about my motivation:
I still believe I am underinvested now. In November, I'll get 40. I now have about 95k in equity, 5k in Bitcoin and own 50% of my house. I will keep investing about 700€-1500€ every month.

And my Tesla Model 3 LR will arrive in two weeks.

Life is good.
GL Bro, I'm all in on Tesla, holding 1100 shares. plan to hold till 2030.
Locked