Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

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musicmom
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by musicmom »

We've lived in NJ our whole lives, last 40 years in Morris County.
Raised our 2 kids in a great walkable town with great schools, shops, restaurants, neighborhoods.But we still had a mortgage and taxes were high and rising rapidly.

Both our kids have planted themselves nearby and we have no intention of moving away.
We spent about 2 years looking for an affordable retirement home.
We found a lovely small home in a nearby town still in Morris county. We have no mortgage and taxes are 45% less than previous home.

We love NJ and feel fortunate to be able to visit our new grandchild at least weekly.
And the food here is incredible!
FireProof
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by FireProof »

New Jersey has some of the highest housing prices in the country, thank God it's not rising even more.
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RootSki
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by RootSki »

newyorker wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:09 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:03 pm I think the key is to close your eyes for 7 seconds. Why? So you can ignore the sign that says "Welcome to Pennsylvania".
Hard pass on Penn. Driving in penn is a nightmare.
I beg to differ, I love driving in PA. First of all there’s less traffic and way less police. Two lane country roads are so much fun and there’s always another way to get somewhere. Everyone speeds on these two lane roads, especially when there’s passing zones. Don’t even get me started about the PA Turnpike. What a fast road that is. With a 70mph speed limit, I’m doing 90 and people are passing me like I’m standing still.

My own take is PA taxes are much more reasonable partly because our school taxes stay within the district you live in, whereas in NJ, your school taxes go to schools in Newark, Trenton, Camden, etc. My total combined property tax went down from $0.88/sqft in Morris county NJ, to $0.18/sqft in Central Bucks, PA. (And I’m probably in a better school district). That’s just insane.

We have all the same stores here, maybe it takes 5 or 10 minutes longer to get to them, I don’t mind the drive, it’s beautiful country out here (even the populated areas). I have noticed that the cost of food staples are much lower in the Quakertown area compared to NJ (ex. a dozen large eggs for $0.90). I guess that might be due to more farms in the area.

I could probably retire here, but my wife wants to retire some where warmer. PA doesn’t tax retirement income and has a modest 3.07% capital gains and income tax (I think I was paying 7% in NJ, but closer to 10% on my stock options). I’ve been able to execute on more sales of megacorp stock and keep more of the grant offering. I’ve sold more to diversify it into index funds.

I wish we left NJ years earlier but it wasn’t the right time and we probably wouldn’t have landed in the same neighborhood we’re in now. I love this area of Central Bucks. It’s convenient to everything. There’s 45 homes in our sub-division and our backyard is adjacent to 100 acres of natural preserved parklands. The neighbors here are great, and very welcoming. Everyone takes good care of their land and homes. We have block parties and guys “garage” nights. It’s been so much fun.
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superfan1983
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by superfan1983 »

RootSki wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:14 am
newyorker wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:09 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:03 pm I think the key is to close your eyes for 7 seconds. Why? So you can ignore the sign that says "Welcome to Pennsylvania".
Hard pass on Penn. Driving in penn is a nightmare.
I beg to differ, I love driving in PA. First of all there’s less traffic and way less police. Two lane country roads are so much fun and there’s always another way to get somewhere. Everyone speeds on these two lane roads, especially when there’s passing zones. Don’t even get me started about the PA Turnpike. What a fast road that is. With a 70mph speed limit, I’m doing 90 and people are passing me like I’m standing still.

My own take is PA taxes are much more reasonable partly because our school taxes stay within the district you live in, whereas in NJ, your school taxes go to schools in Newark, Trenton, Camden, etc. My total combined property tax went down from $0.88/sqft in Morris county NJ, to $0.18/sqft in Central Bucks, PA. (And I’m probably in a better school district). That’s just insane.

We have all the same stores here, maybe it takes 5 or 10 minutes longer to get to them, I don’t mind the drive, it’s beautiful country out here (even the populated areas). I have noticed that the cost of food staples are much lower in the Quakertown area compared to NJ (ex. a dozen large eggs for $0.90). I guess that might be due to more farms in the area.

I could probably retire here, but my wife wants to retire some where warmer. PA doesn’t tax retirement income and has a modest 3.07% capital gains and income tax (I think I was paying 7% in NJ, but closer to 10% on my stock options). I’ve been able to execute on more sales of megacorp stock and keep more of the grant offering. I’ve sold more to diversify it into index funds.

I wish we left NJ years earlier but it wasn’t the right time and we probably wouldn’t have landed in the same neighborhood we’re in now. I love this area of Central Bucks. It’s convenient to everything. There’s 45 homes in our sub-division and our backyard is adjacent to 100 acres of natural preserved parklands. The neighbors here are great, and very welcoming. Everyone takes good care of their land and homes. We have block parties and guys “garage” nights. It’s been so much fun.


Exactly my point, there is zero justification. I love NJ lifestyle; just can't stand the government, high property taxes, and corruption. To the posters that say they love the food, culture, etc - I agree, so do I, but it's not like you can't have that in Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, etc - - with a much lower cost of living and equivalent schools depending on district.
grok87
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by grok87 »

RyeBourbon wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:06 pm We just moved from NJ to Delaware. Property taxes are much less. I don't know if it will be a good investment, I need somewhere to live.
The last time i was in delaware it seemed like everyone from nj was moving there. Has de become very crowded lately?
RIP Mr. Bogle.
musicmom
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by musicmom »

We scoped out Delaware ten years ago as a possible retirement destination.
Love the beaches, low taxes.
But we badly underestimated the travel time to/from northern NJ. Distance In miles is ok, time with traffic is absolutely not.
Too much hassle to visit family.

We can't get NJ pizza/Italian anywhere else but in NJ😏
Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

princetontiger wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:10 pm It depends how long you want to work. If you're smart, you'll move to Florida, get a house with a boat, and just hang after 50.

I have no idea why anyone would live in IL or NJ, frankly. They are basically working to enrich the government. Sucks.

Also, NYC isn't the juggernaut it once was. Lots of jobs leaving.
Can't speak for IL but convenience factor and services. The schools in NJ are good. But that said, you aren't enriching government as much as you are keeping it afloat. Pensions aren't free and NJ and IL's are severely underfunded. Each state has their own host of home brewed issues. NY isn't such a great place either from a tax perspective, if you aren't paying property tax, you'll be paying state and local taxes (either NYC or Yonkers). Long Island, Westchester have a high COL attached to it and services aren't as good, you have to drive just to get a gallon of milk.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
JackoC
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by JackoC »

musicmom wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:49 am We scoped out Delaware ten years ago as a possible retirement destination.
Love the beaches, low taxes.
But we badly underestimated the travel time to/from northern NJ. Distance In miles is ok, time with traffic is absolutely not.
Too much hassle to visit family.

We can't get NJ pizza/Italian anywhere else but in NJ😏
We've also thought about DE as compromise between cost and distance from family but I agree, further than it looks. Very low lying also if you're concerned about that for the future. If you listen to some people and media outlets people are streaming out of this area in gigantic numbers but the traffic somehow keeps getting worse. :happy

But though I've lived in NJ a long time I tend to doubt there's really a such thing as 'NJ way of life'. Where we live in Hudson Cty has some local character still (quite different from the North Jersey 'burb where I went to high school) but it's become much more like just a neighborhood of the City (where I lived as a kid) in the last 30 yrs. NJ still struggles to have a real identity IMO besides NY area v Philly area with maybe 'Shore' as something unique. As quasi-NJ native even I'm puzzled why anyone (if anyone does) would move *to* NJ to 'be in NJ'. Seems in almost every case it's to do with proximity to the City or people are already here and don't want to move away from their families (the reason we don't move, culture of the City wouldn't be enough to stop us now, retired, if our kids dispersed elsewhere).
FootballFan5548
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by FootballFan5548 »

I love NJ. It's been home for me my entire life, as well as my family, and my wife and her family.

I disagree in terms of the valuation of homes. I think they're rising and continuing to rise. The taxes stink, no doubt about it, but still not another state in the country I'd want to live in given a choice.

We purchased a condo in Hoboken in 2011 for $515k. Sold the same condo, with very little work put into it, in 2015 for $735k. That was a 42% return in 4 years.

We purchased a home in a very nice northern monmouth county town. Close to beaches, farms, great ferry commute to NYC, great town and surrounding area. I bought the home for $985k in 2015. Houses on each side of me recently traded for $1.2M and are very similar. I'm confident if I sold today it would be for $1.2M or another very large return on initial investment.

Pretty good returns if you ask me
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superfan1983
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by superfan1983 »

FootballFan5548 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:23 pm I love NJ. It's been home for me my entire life, as well as my family, and my wife and her family.

I disagree in terms of the valuation of homes. I think they're rising and continuing to rise. The taxes stink, no doubt about it, but still not another state in the country I'd want to live in given a choice.

We purchased a condo in Hoboken in 2011 for $515k. Sold the same condo, with very little work put into it, in 2015 for $735k. That was a 42% return in 4 years.

We purchased a home in a very nice northern monmouth county town. Close to beaches, farms, great ferry commute to NYC, great town and surrounding area. I bought the home for $985k in 2015. Houses on each side of me recently traded for $1.2M and are very similar. I'm confident if I sold today it would be for $1.2M or another very large return on initial investment.

Pretty good returns if you ask me

Let's not count Hoboken and Downtown Jersey City as they're part of the NYC effect. We're talking about average towns. A home bought for $985 worth around 1.2 today is due to the covid19 effect; and with property taxes of around ~$25k there's no real appreciation there. A $985k home in most other parts of the country would be worth ~1.5-1.7M today after 7 years. I'm talking about NC, SC, FL, TX, WA, MD, VA, etc.
London
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by London »

superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:31 pm
FootballFan5548 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:23 pm I love NJ. It's been home for me my entire life, as well as my family, and my wife and her family.

I disagree in terms of the valuation of homes. I think they're rising and continuing to rise. The taxes stink, no doubt about it, but still not another state in the country I'd want to live in given a choice.

We purchased a condo in Hoboken in 2011 for $515k. Sold the same condo, with very little work put into it, in 2015 for $735k. That was a 42% return in 4 years.

We purchased a home in a very nice northern monmouth county town. Close to beaches, farms, great ferry commute to NYC, great town and surrounding area. I bought the home for $985k in 2015. Houses on each side of me recently traded for $1.2M and are very similar. I'm confident if I sold today it would be for $1.2M or another very large return on initial investment.

Pretty good returns if you ask me

Let's not count Hoboken and Downtown Jersey City as they're part of the NYC effect. We're talking about average towns. A home bought for $985 worth around 1.2 today is due to the covid19 effect; and with property taxes of around ~$25k there's no real appreciation there. A $985k home in most other parts of the country would be worth ~1.5-1.7M today after 7 years. I'm talking about NC, SC, FL, TX, WA, MD, VA, etc.
We can’t discount individual towns in NJ and then compare to entire states. Appreciation in VA near Washington is real, in other areas not so much. Same for most other states you mentioned.
muffins14
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by muffins14 »

I’m fairly certain not every home in AZ NC has appreciated at 6% per year since 2015.

real estate is local. Some probably appreciate faster, some appreciate slower.

You seem really disappointed by your home’s price growth, so maybe you should focus on actionable things like perhaps you should invest more and keep a long mortgage, so that you’re not putting more into equity and instead keeping more in equities for longer.

Treat the house like a place to live and invest in other things
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
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superfan1983
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by superfan1983 »

muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:41 pm I’m fairly certain not every home in AZ NC has appreciated at 6% per year since 2015.

real estate is local. Some probably appreciate faster, some appreciate slower.

You seem really disappointed by your home’s price growth, so maybe you should focus on actionable things like perhaps you should invest more and keep a long mortgage, so that you’re not putting more into equity and instead keeping more in equities for longer.

Treat the house like a place to live and invest in other things


Agree but it’s a NJ issue if you look at the data. If you saw the Zillow example from my previous post along with others who posted, you would understand. I already invest outside the home, point is I don’t want to willingly buy another home in NJ and be unable to sell in 20 years which is what’s happening now.
home_body
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by home_body »

There are some NJ counties that are good value (i.e. Hudson, Somerset, Warren, Union). They all appreciated nicely for the past 10 years. I live in Hudson and my home is up by 56% and i don't pay ~30k property tax (more like ~11k), still expensive compare to other LCOL/MCOL states. I'm also renting part of the house, which I have no out-of-pocket for anything (taxes, water, ultitlities, etc.). I'm close to family that lives in the city and super close to work downtown Manhattan (20 minute train ride). No problem living in NJ for now until i retire. :beer
Gnick
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by Gnick »

For what its worth. I live in Ocean county and the appreciation on my house has gone up ~50% in the 5 years i've lived here. most of that in the past 2 years.
muffins14
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by muffins14 »

superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:44 pm
muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:41 pm I’m fairly certain not every home in AZ NC has appreciated at 6% per year since 2015.

real estate is local. Some probably appreciate faster, some appreciate slower.

You seem really disappointed by your home’s price growth, so maybe you should focus on actionable things like perhaps you should invest more and keep a long mortgage, so that you’re not putting more into equity and instead keeping more in equities for longer.

Treat the house like a place to live and invest in other things


Agree but it’s a NJ issue if you look at the data. If you saw the Zillow example from my previous post along with others who posted, you would understand. I already invest outside the home, point is I don’t want to willingly buy another home in NJ and be unable to sell in 20 years which is what’s happening now.
But people are telling you about other areas in NJ where there is price appreciation, but you choose to ignore them.

If you don’t want to buy another house in your area, then don’t buy another house in your area. No one is forcing you to own vs rent, or to buy a big house vs a smaller house
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
Topic Author
superfan1983
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by superfan1983 »

muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:27 pm
superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:44 pm
muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:41 pm I’m fairly certain not every home in AZ NC has appreciated at 6% per year since 2015.

real estate is local. Some probably appreciate faster, some appreciate slower.

You seem really disappointed by your home’s price growth, so maybe you should focus on actionable things like perhaps you should invest more and keep a long mortgage, so that you’re not putting more into equity and instead keeping more in equities for longer.

Treat the house like a place to live and invest in other things


Agree but it’s a NJ issue if you look at the data. If you saw the Zillow example from my previous post along with others who posted, you would understand. I already invest outside the home, point is I don’t want to willingly buy another home in NJ and be unable to sell in 20 years which is what’s happening now.
But people are telling you about other areas in NJ where there is price appreciation, but you choose to ignore them.

If you don’t want to buy another house in your area, then don’t buy another house in your area. No one is forcing you to own vs rent, or to buy a big house vs a smaller house


I never said there isn’t appreciation, I’m saying it’s in select areas and it also pales in comparison to other states. Secondly there is a Covid effect which accounts for most of the appreciation. Third, it’s an unsustainable issue which will be even bleaker in the future.
muffins14
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by muffins14 »

superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:41 pm
muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:27 pm
superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:44 pm
muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:41 pm I’m fairly certain not every home in AZ NC has appreciated at 6% per year since 2015.

real estate is local. Some probably appreciate faster, some appreciate slower.

You seem really disappointed by your home’s price growth, so maybe you should focus on actionable things like perhaps you should invest more and keep a long mortgage, so that you’re not putting more into equity and instead keeping more in equities for longer.

Treat the house like a place to live and invest in other things


Agree but it’s a NJ issue if you look at the data. If you saw the Zillow example from my previous post along with others who posted, you would understand. I already invest outside the home, point is I don’t want to willingly buy another home in NJ and be unable to sell in 20 years which is what’s happening now.
But people are telling you about other areas in NJ where there is price appreciation, but you choose to ignore them.

If you don’t want to buy another house in your area, then don’t buy another house in your area. No one is forcing you to own vs rent, or to buy a big house vs a smaller house


I never said there isn’t appreciation, I’m saying it’s in select areas and it also pales in comparison to other states. Secondly there is a Covid effect which accounts for most of the appreciation. Third, it’s an unsustainable issue which will be even bleaker in the future.
But other states also see it in select areas not all areas. It’s not like every single home in AZ is now 70% more expensive than in 2019.

I would also challenge that it’s unsustainable. I think the high growth in prices is unsustainable prices that change slowly or moderately is sustainable and probably better for the consumer and market

Not every house is guaranteed 6-10% CAGR. the expectations are unrealistic I think, and if you need 6-10% CAGR for the house purchase to be “worth it” then you are probably over-buying or paying too much opportunity cost
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
VoiceOfReason
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by VoiceOfReason »

superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:44 pm
muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:41 pm I’m fairly certain not every home in AZ NC has appreciated at 6% per year since 2015.

real estate is local. Some probably appreciate faster, some appreciate slower.

You seem really disappointed by your home’s price growth, so maybe you should focus on actionable things like perhaps you should invest more and keep a long mortgage, so that you’re not putting more into equity and instead keeping more in equities for longer.

Treat the house like a place to live and invest in other things


Agree but it’s a NJ issue if you look at the data. If you saw the Zillow example from my previous post along with others who posted, you would understand. I already invest outside the home, point is I don’t want to willingly buy another home in NJ and be unable to sell in 20 years which is what’s happening now.
People moving in, incomes to match, and overall tax liabilities all play a role. The places with a lot of price increases across the country are oftentimes in no state income tax/lower relative property tax with people moving in due to remote work options or growing industries. (Florida, Texas, TN and other areas in the sunbelt. Having recently moved from a northeast state to Florida, I had a modest house and purchased a house in FL for 2.5 x (which has gone up 1.5x in <1 year) and with the no state income tax benefit of Florida, I've improved my monthly budget.

My advice is to accept that a house is not an investment and move on. Or if you want a chance at better appreciation, you need to move to a state that meets the above criteria.
mary1492
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by mary1492 »

VoiceOfReason wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:47 pm My advice is to accept that a house is not an investment and move on.
Agreed.

If you do see a house as an investment, then you had better be prepared that the value may/can go down a lot and it may turn out to be a very poor investment depending on your (investment) time horizon.
onourway
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by onourway »

superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:28 am
RootSki wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:14 am
newyorker wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:09 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:03 pm I think the key is to close your eyes for 7 seconds. Why? So you can ignore the sign that says "Welcome to Pennsylvania".
Hard pass on Penn. Driving in penn is a nightmare.
I beg to differ, I love driving in PA. First of all there’s less traffic and way less police. Two lane country roads are so much fun and there’s always another way to get somewhere. Everyone speeds on these two lane roads, especially when there’s passing zones. Don’t even get me started about the PA Turnpike. What a fast road that is. With a 70mph speed limit, I’m doing 90 and people are passing me like I’m standing still.

My own take is PA taxes are much more reasonable partly because our school taxes stay within the district you live in, whereas in NJ, your school taxes go to schools in Newark, Trenton, Camden, etc. My total combined property tax went down from $0.88/sqft in Morris county NJ, to $0.18/sqft in Central Bucks, PA. (And I’m probably in a better school district). That’s just insane.

We have all the same stores here, maybe it takes 5 or 10 minutes longer to get to them, I don’t mind the drive, it’s beautiful country out here (even the populated areas). I have noticed that the cost of food staples are much lower in the Quakertown area compared to NJ (ex. a dozen large eggs for $0.90). I guess that might be due to more farms in the area.

I could probably retire here, but my wife wants to retire some where warmer. PA doesn’t tax retirement income and has a modest 3.07% capital gains and income tax (I think I was paying 7% in NJ, but closer to 10% on my stock options). I’ve been able to execute on more sales of megacorp stock and keep more of the grant offering. I’ve sold more to diversify it into index funds.

I wish we left NJ years earlier but it wasn’t the right time and we probably wouldn’t have landed in the same neighborhood we’re in now. I love this area of Central Bucks. It’s convenient to everything. There’s 45 homes in our sub-division and our backyard is adjacent to 100 acres of natural preserved parklands. The neighbors here are great, and very welcoming. Everyone takes good care of their land and homes. We have block parties and guys “garage” nights. It’s been so much fun.


Exactly my point, there is zero justification. I love NJ lifestyle; just can't stand the government, high property taxes, and corruption. To the posters that say they love the food, culture, etc - I agree, so do I, but it's not like you can't have that in Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, etc - - with a much lower cost of living and equivalent schools depending on district.
Of course there is justification for it. You may not like the justification, but it's done for a pretty solid reason, and has to be a big part of the reason NJ ranks at the top of national public school rankings.
JackoC
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by JackoC »

muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:45 pm
superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:41 pm
muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:27 pm
superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:44 pm
muffins14 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:41 pm I’m fairly certain not every home in AZ NC has appreciated at 6% per year since 2015.
Agree but it’s a NJ issue if you look at the data.
But people are telling you about other areas in NJ where there is price appreciation, but you choose to ignore them.

If you don’t want to buy another house in your area, then don’t buy another house in your area. No one is forcing you to own vs rent, or to buy a big house vs a smaller house
I never said there isn’t appreciation, I’m saying it’s in select areas and it also pales in comparison to other states. Secondly there is a Covid effect which accounts for most of the appreciation. Third, it’s an unsustainable issue which will be even bleaker in the future.
But other states also see it in select areas not all areas. It’s not like every single home in AZ is now 70% more expensive than in 2019.
No general stat is every going to apply to 'every single home', but there's a point to be made that home price appreciation in the NY area recently has been slower than national.

The Case Shiller 20 City national composite had CAGR 18.41% 1 yr, 9.37% 3 yr, 7.85% 5 yr. The NY area subindex 14.57% 1yr, 7.27% 3yr, 6.06% 5yr.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indic ... /#overview
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indic ... /#overview

Appreciation in the NY area has lagged national in recent years, though not tremendously. The gap would be bigger if you cherry picked particularly high appreciation sub indexes published for other areas, but IMHO it just descends to mush to say it for NJ, but 'not counting Hoboken, JC, not counting "COVID effect", not counting whatever else, then vs. some area in Idaho' or something. But there's an element of statistical truth in OP's argument. The doubtful part IMO is how specifically it's connected to property tax rates in NJ considering NJ as if one entity rather than the reality that Northern NJ is economically an extension of the City, South Jersey less so, and NJ is not a cohesive whole on either an economic or cultural basis to the extent some states are, though some other states also aren't. Though I don't dismiss that real estate appreciation could have something to do with the general approach to local govt taxation, regulation and other, in this area over time. That can affect, for better or worse, which businesses choose to locate here which drives growth of the wage base which drives property prices. However, that broader topic is both complicated and inevitably political.
Last edited by JackoC on Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
arf30
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by arf30 »

Not sure I agree with the premise that high property taxes are depressing real estate prices in NJ - citation needed on that assumption. Have lived in several areas of the state and property values increased rapidly in all of them - especially the shore region which is a major portion of the state. The property tax issue is because NJ has a million tiny towns, if they were merged taxes would be lower, but nobody's willing to do that.
finite_difference
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by finite_difference »

You might need to take some risk and see whether places go up or down. Here are some places that I could see going up:

Bloomfield
West Orange
Jersey City
Jersey Heights

Otherwise, the further West, North and South you get, the cheaper it will be. I’d buy into a town that’s far enough out to be affordable but with access to the train lines to NYC/Hoboken.
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superfan1983
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by superfan1983 »

arf30 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:56 pm Not sure I agree with the premise that high property taxes are depressing real estate prices in NJ - citation needed on that assumption. Have lived in several areas of the state and property values increased rapidly in all of them - especially the shore region which is a major portion of the state. The property tax issue is because NJ has a million tiny towns, if they were merged taxes would be lower, but nobody's willing to do that.

It’s common sense isn’t it? A $400k home with 10k in taxes, 600k home with 20k in taxes, and a million dollar home with 28-35k in annual taxes. Fast forward 5-10 years and you barely see any appreciation.

This is what’s happening all around the state. Here’s some data:

https://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/182935.pdf
onourway
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by onourway »

superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:24 pm
arf30 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:56 pm Not sure I agree with the premise that high property taxes are depressing real estate prices in NJ - citation needed on that assumption. Have lived in several areas of the state and property values increased rapidly in all of them - especially the shore region which is a major portion of the state. The property tax issue is because NJ has a million tiny towns, if they were merged taxes would be lower, but nobody's willing to do that.

It’s common sense isn’t it? A $400k home with 10k in taxes, 600k home with 20k in taxes, and a million dollar home with 28-35k in annual taxes. Fast forward 5-10 years and you barely see any appreciation.

This is what’s happening all around the state. Here’s some data:

https://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/182935.pdf
You've been given plenty of data from people who live in NJ who have had a different experience, dismissed it because of their specific locations, yet are focusing on specific, cherry picked data from specific cities in other states, ignoring that those are also large states where not all regions will have seen massive appreciation.

It's pretty clear you've determined your position in advance and aren't actually interested in hearing anything contrary. :oops:
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

home_body wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:03 pm There are some NJ counties that are good value (i.e. Hudson, Somerset, Warren, Union). They all appreciated nicely for the past 10 years. I live in Hudson and my home is up by 56% and i don't pay ~30k property tax (more like ~11k), still expensive compare to other LCOL/MCOL states. I'm also renting part of the house, which I have no out-of-pocket for anything (taxes, water, ultitlities, etc.). I'm close to family that lives in the city and super close to work downtown Manhattan (20 minute train ride). No problem living in NJ for now until i retire. :beer
Hudson County isn’t that big. Some parts of Hudson are still being subsidized with the classification of being an economic development zone having lower sales taxes and with stale property revaluation.
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

finite_difference wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:11 pm You might need to take some risk and see whether places go up or down. Here are some places that I could see going up:

Bloomfield
West Orange
Jersey City
Jersey Heights

Otherwise, the further West, North and South you get, the cheaper it will be. I’d buy into a town that’s far enough out to be affordable but with access to the train lines to NYC/Hoboken.
Where is there a train line in Bloomfield? It’s a bus town or you take a bus to a train. If NJ were to extend light rails to towns west of Secaucus you’d see property valuations rise.
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by muffins14 »

onourway wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:34 pm
superfan1983 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:24 pm
arf30 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:56 pm Not sure I agree with the premise that high property taxes are depressing real estate prices in NJ - citation needed on that assumption. Have lived in several areas of the state and property values increased rapidly in all of them - especially the shore region which is a major portion of the state. The property tax issue is because NJ has a million tiny towns, if they were merged taxes would be lower, but nobody's willing to do that.

It’s common sense isn’t it? A $400k home with 10k in taxes, 600k home with 20k in taxes, and a million dollar home with 28-35k in annual taxes. Fast forward 5-10 years and you barely see any appreciation.

This is what’s happening all around the state. Here’s some data:

https://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/182935.pdf
You've been given plenty of data from people who live in NJ who have had a different experience, dismissed it because of their specific locations, yet are focusing on specific, cherry picked data from specific cities in other states, ignoring that those are also large states where not all regions will have seen massive appreciation.

It's pretty clear you've determined your position in advance and aren't actually interested in hearing anything contrary. :oops:
In addition to this, we see threads all the time about people fearing being "priced out" due to fast-rising home prices. Skyrocketing home prices is not necessarily a good thing that we should all strive to push on every locale in America. It puts a strain on finances when home prices are so high
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by RyeBourbon »

musicmom wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:49 am We scoped out Delaware ten years ago as a possible retirement destination.
Love the beaches, low taxes.
But we badly underestimated the travel time to/from northern NJ. Distance In miles is ok, time with traffic is absolutely not.
Too much hassle to visit family.

We can't get NJ pizza/Italian anywhere else but in NJ😏
Yes, but we moved from South Jersey to the Delaware beach area. Two hours away. But honestly South Jersey and North Jersey are different states really.
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by Tom_T »

All of the statistics I've seen about the pandemic housing boom show New Jersey somewhere in the middle of the pack. It's not top-third nor bottom-third.

Property taxes in NJ have always been high. My house has doubled in 20 years, and I'm in a larger town where taxes aren't too bad. My brother's house, in a smaller, very-high-tax town in a different part of the state, has doubled in 20 years. We have relatives living in almost every part of the state. I could survey them, but I'd bet they've all seen price appreciation, without exception.
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by stickman731 »

I actually enjoy reading all the comment in this thread; however, no one really talked about total cost of ownership. Yes, property taxes are high in NJ but you get services. I have this conversation with family in SC - water, sewer, garbage, auto registration, driving distance, travel are greater and at the end of day - you will be near equivalent at the end of day; so you must decide where you want to live. Your home is not an investment.

For price appreciation, I live in Monmouth County, purchased my home in 2003 for $360,000 - the identical house next door recently sold for $640,000. Another around the corner, sold for $420,000 and got completely demolished and a big home put in it place. As a FYI, my taxes started out at $4300 and are now $9,200. Good school system (67% of my taxes go to schools) and thoughtful fiscal municipal management has helped.
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by Beehave »

muffins14 wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:12 pm
BillWalters wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:38 pm I genuinely don’t understand why anyone without a massive income dependent on an in person job lives in the northeast.
People to collaborate with, cultural preferences like art, food, or music scenes, family, friends. Density of those things and proximity to a lot of them. Good hiking in state parks, many beaches with warm water in the summer.short flights to Europe. This is obvious
+1

Taxes are one piece of a complex puzzle. How big a determining factor they comprise depends on individual circumstances and preferences.

I left NJ in large part for tax considerations, and in retrospect I overestimated the importance of taxes to me relative to issues mentioned in the quoted post above.
Pizza1415
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by Pizza1415 »

Can't dispute the absurd property taxes but curious regarding the comments surrounding price appreciation.

We purchased in 2015 for 450k and can likely get at least 650k now. The "house" that was 650k in 2015 is likely close to 900k.
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by OrangeKiwi »

arf30 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:56 pm Not sure I agree with the premise that high property taxes are depressing real estate prices in NJ - citation needed on that assumption. Have lived in several areas of the state and property values increased rapidly in all of them - especially the shore region which is a major portion of the state. The property tax issue is because NJ has a million tiny towns, if they were merged taxes would be lower, but nobody's willing to do that.
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/ ... tates-2021

NJ’s per taxpayer debt is multiple standard deviations above the mean. A lot of that debt is for paying employees for work performed decades ago, so it is of no use to taxpayers today. It stands to reason that if you are a higher earner, you should expect a greater tax liability relative to states with lower debt (assuming the alternative state offers similar or better income opportunities for you.)

As much as NJ’s public schools are touted, any rich suburb of an urban area will have similar quality schools.

Personally, I calculated that I would end up with at least a couple million more by retirement if I moved to a state with a lower tax burden, which was worth it to me so I did move away a few years ago. I imagine others are looking at cash flow and making similar decisions, if they do not have other considerations tying them to the regions, and that would cause land prices to grow at a slower pace than other areas.

Bottom line is I would take into account the quality of local governance and its finances before investing, just like I would any business.
Last edited by OrangeKiwi on Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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superfan1983
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by superfan1983 »

OrangeKiwi wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:35 pm
arf30 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:56 pm Not sure I agree with the premise that high property taxes are depressing real estate prices in NJ - citation needed on that assumption. Have lived in several areas of the state and property values increased rapidly in all of them - especially the shore region which is a major portion of the state. The property tax issue is because NJ has a million tiny towns, if they were merged taxes would be lower, but nobody's willing to do that.
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/ ... tates-2021

NJ’s per taxpayer debt is multiple standard deviations above the mean. A lot of that debt is for paying employees for work performed decades ago, so it is of no use to taxpayers today. It stands to reason that if you are a higher earner, you should expect a greater tax liability relative to states with lower debt (assuming the alternative state offers similar or better income opportunities for you.)

As much as NJ’s public schools are touted here, any rich suburb of an urban area will have similar quality schools.

Personally, I calculated that I would end up with at least a couple million more by retirement if I moved to a state with a lower tax burden, which was worth it to me so I did move away a few years ago. I imagine others are looking at cash flow and making similar decisions, if they do not have other considerations tying them to the regions, and that would cause land prices to grow at a slower pace than other areas.

Bottom line is I would take into account the quality of local governance and its finances before investing, just like I would any business.

Agree 100% - a lot of posters are comparing 20 years ago to today. Currently, with 1M homes with at least 28k annual taxes - project that over 20 years, you are paying 600k-700k just in taxes. How much will a home in NJ be worth if the taxes were 40k? A lot of the time, you have to take an educated guess and make future projections. I am leaning towards leaving the state.
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princetontiger
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by princetontiger »

Illinois is ahead of everyone.

Michael Jordan has been trying to sell his house for years. I think it's now down to $1m. Property tax: $100k.
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

Post by Little_Carmine »

I live in NJ. If I work in Newark, I don’t see where I would move other than NJ to have a reasonable commute. I like NJ but I also have high property taxes. Not sure where else to go.
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Re: Areas in or around NJ which are a good value

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