How long to work?

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chilidawg
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Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2013 4:45 pm

How long to work?

Post by chilidawg »

I need some help determining my retirement strategy. Whenever my wife and I retire we will have a fair amount of money still coming in for a time, which makes it difficult for me to determine just exactly how long to continue to work.

My wife (40) and I (41) are both physicians and have two children, ages 1 and 11. We have the following assets:
- Paid off house worth $900k
- Taxable investment account $200k
- I Bonds $55k
- Roth IRA accounts $240k
- Inherited Roth IRA with 9 years left before required withdrawal $25k
- 401k $1.5 million
- HSA accounts $60k
- 529 accounts - $20k and $100k for our children
- Various investments for our medical practices and real estate that total another $1.2 million

As grim a topic as it is, my remaining parent is in poor health. I anticipate I will inherit around $1.2 million, though we certainly aren't factoring it in.

No debt.

Estimated yearly expenses are around $120,000.

Our total yearly income is about $725k. If we both quit our jobs tomorrow, our yearly income would likely remain $250k for the first two years, then decrease to $150k/year for the next three years or so as we are bought out of several of the various investments above (plus about $800k principal of the above $1 million in investments). After that, we will still hold some of our investments and could anticipate $40-50k/year for another 5 years (years 6-10 years after we retire).

Thanks in part to the Bogleheads, we have done a good job accumulating and saving. Our jobs are not terrible, but we don't want to work our lives away if we don't need to. In our 30's it was easy to imagine "if yearly expenses equal 4% of total savings, it's safe to retire." As we approach that number, it seems far less clear. Our exit from medical practice should give us a nice glide path into retirement no matter when we quit, but having a one year old especially makes this hard.

How do we decide how much longer to work? How will we know when we actually have "enough"? Is there any benefit to sitting down with a financial planner? My instinct has been that it would not be helpful, as they would be plugging in the numbers from the medical practice buy-outs just like I can.
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David Jay
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Re: How long to work?

Post by David Jay »

I think you will likely know when the time comes. As long as you can get up every day, go to work, come home and do all the things you want to do in just evenings and weekends, it is difficult to retire.

When one of those things is no longer true, retirement becomes obvious.
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JoeRetire
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Re: How long to work?

Post by JoeRetire »

chilidawg wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:54 pm How do we decide how much longer to work?
Decide on your goals for retirement first.
Then figure out how much it will take each year to fund those goals.
Then stop working once you have the funds necessary to pay for those goals or when you actually want to stop working - whichever comes last.
Is there any benefit to sitting down with a financial planner? My instinct has been that it would not be helpful, as they would be plugging in the numbers from the medical practice buy-outs just like I can.
It appears that your instincts might be leading you astray here.

A good financial planner doesn't just plug numbers in. A good financial planner will help you to clarify your goals and help you figure out how to get there. They will ask you questions that you wouldn't have thought of yourself.

There may well be benefit to sitting down with a financial planner, at least for a few hours.
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bltn
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Re: How long to work?

Post by bltn »

I don t believe you re financially secure for retirement yet. For a forty to fifty year retirement, one should be able to live on 3% of his invested assets. That 3% should include income taxes. Tax deferred investment accounts are not as much as they appear to be.

Your children’s’ 529 plans will need additional funding.

As you describe the first five years of income after an immediate retirement, it seems as though you re just spending a significant portion if your taxable investment principal. Consider any capital gains taxes on these yearly disbursements.

If you don t really dislike your work, you might consider continuing to work and save for another 5 years and then re evaluate.

And consider with all the time and effort you put into training for your jobs, and your current compensations, will you be satisfied spending 120,000 dollars a year, taxes included, for the rest of your lives?

My daughter is finishing a surgery subspecialty fellowship this year at age 37, with a one year old daughter. She s working 80-90 hours a week. Her husband is a FAANG software engineer working 50-60 hours a week. I can t imagine her quitting her job in 10 years.
er999
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Re: How long to work?

Post by er999 »

Can you try working part time first? Or if not maybe pay your colleagues to take over some of the unpleasant parts of your job. It might be worth trying to, say, pay someone to cover night call (even if it is a very high rate) so you can still keep some income going and reassess in 1-2 years.
carolinaman
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Re: How long to work?

Post by carolinaman »

JoeRetire wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:11 pm
chilidawg wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:54 pm How do we decide how much longer to work?
Decide on your goals for retirement first.
Then figure out how much it will take each year to fund those goals.
Then stop working once you have the funds necessary to pay for those goals or when you actually want to stop working - whichever comes last.
Is there any benefit to sitting down with a financial planner? My instinct has been that it would not be helpful, as they would be plugging in the numbers from the medical practice buy-outs just like I can.
It appears that your instincts might be leading you astray here.

A good financial planner doesn't just plug numbers in. A good financial planner will help you to clarify your goals and help you figure out how to get there. They will ask you questions that you wouldn't have thought of yourself.

There may well be benefit to sitting down with a financial planner, at least for a few hours.
+1. You are smart enough to manage your finances long term. However, a one time plan from an hourly financial planner is a good insurance policy.

A friend once told me, "answers are easy, questions are hard". Missing a couple of key questions could mess up your long term plans. Good planners will ask questions about all of your plans, not just your investments or withdrawal strategies.

Be careful in who you choose because not all planners have your best interests at heart.
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Sandtrap
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Sandtrap »

chilidawg wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:54 pm I need some help determining my retirement strategy. Whenever my wife and I retire we will have a fair amount of money still coming in for a time, which makes it difficult for me to determine just exactly how long to continue to work.

My wife (40) and I (41) are both physicians and have two children, ages 1 and 11. We have the following assets:
- Paid off house worth $900k
- Taxable investment account $200k
- I Bonds $55k
- Roth IRA accounts $240k
- Inherited Roth IRA with 9 years left before required withdrawal $25k
- 401k $1.5 million
- HSA accounts $60k
- 529 accounts - $20k and $100k for our children
- Various investments for our medical practices and real estate that total another $1.2 million

As grim a topic as it is, my remaining parent is in poor health. I anticipate I will inherit around $1.2 million, though we certainly aren't factoring it in.

No debt.

Estimated yearly expenses are around $120,000.

Our total yearly income is about $725k. If we both quit our jobs tomorrow, our yearly income would likely remain $250k for the first two years, then decrease to $150k/year for the next three years or so as we are bought out of several of the various investments above (plus about $800k principal of the above $1 million in investments). After that, we will still hold some of our investments and could anticipate $40-50k/year for another 5 years (years 6-10 years after we retire).

Thanks in part to the Bogleheads, we have done a good job accumulating and saving. Our jobs are not terrible, but we don't want to work our lives away if we don't need to. In our 30's it was easy to imagine "if yearly expenses equal 4% of total savings, it's safe to retire." As we approach that number, it seems far less clear. Our exit from medical practice should give us a nice glide path into retirement no matter when we quit, but having a one year old especially makes this hard.
1
How do we decide how much longer to work?
2
How will we know when we actually have "enough"?
3
Is there any benefit to sitting down with a financial planner?
4
My instinct has been that it would not be helpful, as they would be plugging in the numbers from the medical practice buy-outs just like I can.
1. Once you are financiall secure, deciding how much longer to work depends on the passion that you bring to it. Is it fun? Do you look forward to going to work? Do you feel you are contributing to society and it is rewarding?

2. It might help to clean up your original post to this format and include the missing data for comprehensive input. The simple act of doing it might reveal your answers to you.
Asking Portfolio Questions
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewt ... =1&t=6212

3. If you did seek a FA, consider an hourly approach, fee only. Search the forum archives for reputable fee only FA. There are good one's with your best interests in mind. There are many many with thier own best interests in mind.

4. Yes. Your instincts are correct.

j :D
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know
happyjuice8000
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Re: How long to work?

Post by happyjuice8000 »

I think the FIRE movement amongst physicians has had some benefits like encouraging living within your means, reducing debt, having a high savings rate, and investing with intense focus. However, there are big blind spots in the movement. We rarely hear about docs who freaked out after retiring early, but I know quite a few who regretted it and went back to work with their tail between their legs. The biggest proponents of FIRE online have second careers as bloggers, real estate investors, or conference organizers. They maybe financially independent, but they are NOT retired.

With a time horizon of over half a century, it is questionable whether traditional assets like publicly-traded equities and fixed income will keep up with the growing necessity of higher taxes and skyrocketing inflation in consumer services, goods, healthcare, and education. What happens if there is prolonged hyperinflation when you are in your 50’s due to political shenanigans and your multimillion dollar savings becomes inadequate? What happens if your spouse decides 25 years of marriage is enough and walks away with half of the assets? What happens if your child becomes physically or mentally disabled? What happens if ACA medical plans vaporize and medical insurance premiums skyrocket?

Perhaps find yourself a part-time clinical job so that you have options. Working is the best insurance against personal, political, and economic turmoil, even if the cash flow seems superfluous today.
Topic Author
chilidawg
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Re: How long to work?

Post by chilidawg »

Thank you for all the great comments. I don't believe we are financially ready to retire yet - we just don't want to find out we worked 7-8 years longer than we needed to after the fact. Our work is rewarding, but demanding - there is more we want to do with our lives. As with all physicians, we put a lot of time and effort into training, but to my wife and I that is not a reason to work longer than we need to financially.

Personally, I can't decide if I find work rewarding, because I need to work right now. I think my wife and will have some difficulty walking away from our current jobs no matter when it happens, because we do realize how fortunate we are to earn incomes like this. We could cut back at some point, or get easier positions that pays less - those are definitely possibilities.

Maybe I've just met the wrong financial planners. Every planner I've encountered will ask about our assets and income, of which my wife and I will always have more insight into than the planner (especially the medical practice investments). Maybe the right advisor will have a better idea of real-world costs of somewhat early retirees than we do? I suppose we would be looking for an advisor that has many clients that are physicians that cut back or retired in their mid to late 40's?
SRenaeP
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Re: How long to work?

Post by SRenaeP »

I don't think you're there yet particularly with two young children. I think signing up with PlanVision (often recommended here) would be worthwhile. Access to their EMoney tool is well worth the cost. This will allow you to get a better feel for how to define/segregate your expenses and model possible retirement dates.
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Devil's Advocate
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Devil's Advocate »

bltn wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:42 pm I don t believe you re financially secure for retirement yet. For a forty to fifty year retirement, one should be able to live on 3% of his invested assets. That 3% should include income taxes. Tax deferred investment accounts are not as much as they appear to be.

Your children’s’ 529 plans will need additional funding.

As you describe the first five years of income after an immediate retirement, it seems as though you re just spending a significant portion if your taxable investment principal. Consider any capital gains taxes on these yearly disbursements.

If you don t really dislike your work, you might consider continuing to work and save for another 5 years and then re evaluate.

And consider with all the time and effort you put into training for your jobs, and your current compensations, will you be satisfied spending 120,000 dollars a year, taxes included, for the rest of your lives?

My daughter is finishing a surgery subspecialty fellowship this year at age 37, with a one year old daughter. She s working 80-90 hours a week. Her husband is a FAANG software engineer working 50-60 hours a week. I can t imagine her quitting her job in 10 years.
I can imagine her quitting in 10 yrs. 80 hrs/week.
No thanks.

DA
Dusn
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Dusn »

It sounds like the OPs total NW is $4.7M, not counting the potential inheritance?
Why can’t the OP likely retire fairly soon, within maybe 2 years?

I understand the health insurance issue.. that’s always a big concern if ACA goes away. And the 120k yearly spending needs to be more precise adding taxes and health insurance.
Stubbie
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Stubbie »

How long to work?
If you are asking this question then the answer is:
as long as you need to but not one day longer.

If you are not asking this question then you should work forever.
skis4hire
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Re: How long to work?

Post by skis4hire »

Your total investments are around 3.3 Million which I don't think puts you there financially with 2 children yet to go through college, a 50 year time horizon, no guaranteed health insurance, and probably not great SSI numbers.

But with your income you can save $600k/year, you probably only need another few years at full steam.

I'd be interested to hear how others view this but I would personally not want to fully retire until my children had graduated high school, as an example of earning a living if nothing else. That certainty doesn't have to be full time and as a physician you have more latitude than most to do fully engaged but part time work.
ThankYouJack
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Re: How long to work?

Post by ThankYouJack »

chilidawg wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:52 am We could cut back at some point, or get easier positions that pays less - those are definitely possibilities.
I would cut back now. Financially you'll be fine, but your kids won't be young forever.
skis4hire wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:02 pm
I'd be interested to hear how others view this but I would personally not want to fully retire until my children had graduated high school, as an example of earning a living if nothing else.
I'm not one bit concerned about this. One of my high school friend's dad retired very early and we all thought it was cool. If anything it was motivation for us to work harder and do better to have that sort of success.

I think there are much more important values to teach kids.
Starfish
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Starfish »

skis4hire wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:02 pm I'd be interested to hear how others view this but I would personally not want to fully retire until my children had graduated high school, as an example of earning a living if nothing else.
I think you overestimate the example thing. First of all, kids in high school should not consider their parents as an example :D
My mother (singe parent household) retired when I was just entering HS. It never crossed my mind that 35y of work is a bad example. If anything made me think that I should retire at most at the same age (53), because otherwise there would be no evolution.
blastoff
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Re: How long to work?

Post by blastoff »

Your income is great.
Has your spending been steady at 120k? (Assume that is no mortgage as paid off?)

I'd try to get to 4-5million ish.
With market returns and your savings that shouldn't take too long....
bltn
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Re: How long to work?

Post by bltn »

Devil's Advocate wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 2:38 pm
bltn wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:42 pm I don t believe you re financially secure for retirement yet. For a forty to fifty year retirement, one should be able to live on 3% of his invested assets. That 3% should include income taxes. Tax deferred investment accounts are not as much as they appear to be.

Your children’s’ 529 plans will need additional funding.

As you describe the first five years of income after an immediate retirement, it seems as though you re just spending a significant portion if your taxable investment principal. Consider any capital gains taxes on these yearly disbursements.

If you don t really dislike your work, you might consider continuing to work and save for another 5 years and then re evaluate.

And consider with all the time and effort you put into training for your jobs, and your current compensations, will you be satisfied spending 120,000 dollars a year, taxes included, for the rest of your lives?

My daughter is finishing a surgery subspecialty fellowship this year at age 37, with a one year old daughter. She s working 80-90 hours a week. Her husband is a FAANG software engineer working 50-60 hours a week. I can t imagine her quitting her job in 10 years.
I can imagine her quitting in 10 yrs. 80 hrs/week.
No thanks.

DA
Next year when my daughter goes into practice, I expect her work hours will decrease to 50-60 hours a week. She ll have some options but she has always been a workaholic. However, with her new child, her priorities may be changing.
Wannaretireearly
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Wannaretireearly »

blastoff wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:57 pm Your income is great.
Has your spending been steady at 120k? (Assume that is no mortgage as paid off?)

I'd try to get to 4-5million ish.
With market returns and your savings that shouldn't take too long....
+1. Plus I like the idea of retirement close to age 50. Similar liquid NW, and expenses. But a few years older. We’ll done OP.
“At some point you are trading time you will never get back for money you will never spend.“ | “How do you want to spend the best remaining year of your life?“
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ram
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Re: How long to work?

Post by ram »

It would be safe to retire with 50x ( 120K x50 = 6 M) and acceptable to retire with 40x ( 4.8 M)
Ram
Wannaretireearly
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Wannaretireearly »

ram wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:15 pm It would be safe to retire with 50x ( 120K x50 = 6 M) and acceptable to retire with 40x ( 4.8 M)
Oooph! Ease OP in with a 35X ER target ;)
Give us some hope 👍
“At some point you are trading time you will never get back for money you will never spend.“ | “How do you want to spend the best remaining year of your life?“
Topic Author
chilidawg
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Re: How long to work?

Post by chilidawg »

We just paid off the mortgage this year. The spending trend is closer to $8,500/month without the mortgage (but with the property taxes). If we were no longer working, child care costs would decrease, health insurance would increase. I think $100-120k/year is a good rough estimate of our typical expenses over a year, including a buffer for bigger ticket items that pop up every so often (bigger home repairs, replacing a car, etc).

To reiterate, I don't think we are ready to retire today. We are happy in our house and we will stay there for the next 15 years. However, we don't want to realize in 2029 that we could have retired or changed trajectory years earlier. Between tax advantaged space and a regular taxable brokerage, we can save over $450k/year now that there is no mortagage.

Our exit from medical practice investments would allow us a few years of cash flow before having to start selling them off. We would be earning more than enough to live on from that for about 2 years, and then as we get bought out of investments we'd get at least another 7 years of living expenses from from the continued payments and interest on the medical practice investments. 9 years is a long runway before you need to touch your current taxable investment account.
ThankYouJack
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Re: How long to work?

Post by ThankYouJack »

chilidawg wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 5:11 am
However, we don't want to realize in 2029 that we could have retired or changed trajectory years earlier.

Have you plugged in some numbers into FireCalc or Rich Dead or Broke - https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
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JoeRetire
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Re: How long to work?

Post by JoeRetire »

chilidawg wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:52 am Maybe I've just met the wrong financial planners. Every planner I've encountered will ask about our assets and income, of which my wife and I will always have more insight into than the planner (especially the medical practice investments).
As a physician, I'm guessing your patients have more insight into their own symptoms than you do. That doesn't imply that they don't need your expertise.

Asking about your assets and income is just a small slice of getting to know you - the first step in determining how to help you.
Maybe the right advisor will have a better idea of real-world costs of somewhat early retirees than we do?
Certainly there is huge variety in the real-world costs of early retirees.

What you want is an advisor who will help you determine what your expected costs will be, based on your desired lifestyle, your locale, your goals, etc.
I suppose we would be looking for an advisor that has many clients that are physicians that cut back or retired in their mid to late 40's?
When interviewing potential advisors, it certainly makes sense to ask if they have worked with folks like you.
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Dusn
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Dusn »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:26 pm
ram wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:15 pm It would be safe to retire with 50x ( 120K x50 = 6 M) and acceptable to retire with 40x ( 4.8 M)
Oooph! Ease OP in with a 35X ER target ;)
Give us some hope 👍
Is it really necessary to need 50x or even 40x expenses? What’s wrong with 33x? (This isn’t rhetorical. Is 33x actually a high risk, because most calculators seem to say there has been no historical risk and I’m planning to retire at ~35x + home and kid’s college expenses paid off)

I once saw a 60 year old patient who just suddenly and unexpectedly went blind in both eyes due to a sudden onset autoimmune disease. He had retired a few months early and told me that he had been looking forward to retirement for so long because he wanted to be able to read books all day. Besides audiobooks, reading and most of the things he hoped to do will never happen for him.

I shouldn’t have used the word “unexpectedly” in the above story. The only thing we can be sure of is that we will get sick and die. Time is precious.
Wannaretireearly
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Re: How long to work?

Post by Wannaretireearly »

Dusn wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:05 am
Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:26 pm
ram wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:15 pm It would be safe to retire with 50x ( 120K x50 = 6 M) and acceptable to retire with 40x ( 4.8 M)
Oooph! Ease OP in with a 35X ER target ;)
Give us some hope 👍
Is it really necessary to need 50x or even 40x expenses? What’s wrong with 33x? (This isn’t rhetorical. Is 33x actually a high risk, because most calculators seem to say there has been no historical risk and I’m planning to retire at ~35x + home and kid’s college expenses paid off)

I once saw a 60 year old patient who just suddenly and unexpectedly went blind in both eyes due to a sudden onset autoimmune disease. He had retired a few months early and told me that he had been looking forward to retirement for so long because he wanted to be able to read books all day. Besides audiobooks, reading and most of the things he hoped to do will never happen for him.

I shouldn’t have used the word “unexpectedly” in the above story. The only thing we can be sure of is that we will get sick and die. Time is precious.
Good write up. Past age 50 (half life gone) and 33X saved (no mortgage or college costs included) should be Golden. Social security is the icing on the cake. Past that and there is a high risk of regrets working too long imo.
“At some point you are trading time you will never get back for money you will never spend.“ | “How do you want to spend the best remaining year of your life?“
desiderium
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Re: How long to work?

Post by desiderium »

Dr. Chilidawg, a couple of comments

First, having enough money is not a reason to retire from medicine at 40. You are probably really great at it now. If you need to get out money does open that door--as well as others, including cutting back, narrowing your practice focus, etc. Medicine pulls most people in deep, so imagining what your are going to do instead can be a challenge. Pulling away from it can also be an interesting and energizing journey that shouldn't be rushed.

You are clearly an excellent saver and prudent investor. However, at 40 and with your income, your remaining human capital is large. Planning and SWR formulas aside, your are not going to want to give that up with 50+ years of retirement uncertainty ahead. So think about how to practice medicine sustainably so you can be happy now, not later after burning out and leaving your career. It's not always easy given cultural and commercial expectations. But being FI definitely helps you do things without always asking first.

Your medical practice investments are worth what they are worth, and one part of your asset asset allocation. Imagining them as a "runway" could be the best way to manage them, but is irrelevant to your retirement decision, which draws money from one or another of your assets.

Forget trying to improve your calculations of retirement spending. Your kids are young, and they will probably cost more with time. They will probably surprise you with their life choices, and some (like going to med school) might cost more than you initially plan. With your assets and income you may want to spend more on your selves now or maybe entertain the idea of giving more away. When your kids are grown you will have a very different life. Right now it's difficult to know what your are going to want to do with it. No matter what, you will have enough money for a very comfortable retirement.
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