The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

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anon_investor
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm
It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
For some BHs these are not out of touch numbers...
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by HomerJ »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:29 amBut the cost analysis is really between getting into your local flagship versus a slightly higher ranked public out of state university or your average private university. Neither the improved education or social networking is likely to produce a $500K-1M ROI delta to offset just saving the money in VTI for the kid.
Agreed.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by HomerJ »

fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.
Smart highly motivated kids end up together in the harder classes, no matter where you go to school.

If your kid is smart enough to get into the top schools, they will be in the top 5% at Flagship State. And they will be taking classes with the other top 5% students.

You don't need the entire school to be 100% smart and highly motivated people to get the advantages.
Last edited by HomerJ on Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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stoptothink
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by stoptothink »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:41 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.

Also, $100k is a chump change in some fields.
Some of my friends almost saved that much in the first two years out of college working at Google.
+1.

$100k vs $300k is chump change when you consider lifetime earnings in the mid seven figures.

The college experience is much more important.
I went to UCLA for undergrad (finished with zero debt and it costed my mom $0), can somebody use actual words to explain what this magical "college experience" is? It was my "dream school" because I ate up whatever my high school counselors were feeding (neither of my birth parents or my older brother graduated high school, so they couldn't help), I left with a degree but not otherwise some different person because of the environment. I turned down Ivy grad school opportunities because the money worked out better going elsewhere and I truly had better "experiences" (liked the area, environment, professors, my classmates, research opportunities...) at both of my grad schools (neither with same global cache as UCLA) than I did in undergrad.

Considering the field that I decided to study (exercise physiology/health sciences), whether I went to HYPMS or local U probably had little relevance in my opportunities and how much I ended up making, and I'm doing pretty well. It can obviously make a difference depending on the field, but I think those fields are fewer than many are willing to acknowledge. It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
Tell my sister (a Brown, Oxford, and NYU grad) about this $5M guarantee, she's definitely <$500k for lifetime earnings at 37 and now at a coding bootcamp because she found out the hard way that field of study is often more important than name of school. You are in your own Bay Area/tech bubble.

BTW, according to the U.S. census study, the "average" college graduate earns $2.1M over their lifetime https://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Tingting1013 »

stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:41 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.

Also, $100k is a chump change in some fields.
Some of my friends almost saved that much in the first two years out of college working at Google.
+1.

$100k vs $300k is chump change when you consider lifetime earnings in the mid seven figures.

The college experience is much more important.
I went to UCLA for undergrad (finished with zero debt and it costed my mom $0), can somebody use actual words to explain what this magical "college experience" is? It was my "dream school" because I ate up whatever my high school counselors were feeding (neither of my birth parents or my older brother graduated high school, so they couldn't help), I left with a degree but not otherwise some different person because of the environment. I turned down Ivy grad school opportunities because the money worked out better going elsewhere and I truly had better "experiences" (liked the area, environment, professors, my classmates, research opportunities...) at both of my grad schools (neither with same global cache as UCLA) than I did in undergrad.

Considering the field that I decided to study (exercise physiology/health sciences), whether I went to HYPMS or local U probably had little relevance in my opportunities and how much I ended up making, and I'm doing pretty well. It can obviously make a difference depending on the field, but I think those fields are fewer than many are willing to acknowledge. It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
Tell my sister (a Brown, Oxford, and NYU grad) about this $5M guarantee, she's definitely <$500k for lifetime earnings at 37 and now at a coding bootcamp because she found out the hard way that field of study is often more important than name of school. You are in your own Bay Area/tech bubble.

BTW, according to the U.S. census study, the "average" college graduate earns $2.1M over their lifetime https://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf
I didn’t say it’s a guarantee. You can find extremes on both ends.

And your data is almost 20 years out of date.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by livesoft »

These recurring college threads make me wonder: Who reading this had a child or themselves admitted to HYPMS and didn't attend any of them?
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:33 pm Take UVA or GT as examples. Highly selective Public Research I but in the same Tier 3 category as University of Utah or Arizona State. That the outcomes for the total population of Tier 3, of which few likely do end up in elite graduate programs is lower than his Tier 1 schools is expected.

But when taken against the better flagships which ARE selective the outcomes aren't going be nearly as pronounced...as seen in Dale and Krueger.
Even if that is the case, there is virtually a handful of flagships of that level.

If you are in state for one of them, they likely represent the best bang for the buck in undergraduate education.

If you are out of state, they cost about as much as HYPMS.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by stoptothink »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:39 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:41 pm

+1.

$100k vs $300k is chump change when you consider lifetime earnings in the mid seven figures.

The college experience is much more important.
I went to UCLA for undergrad (finished with zero debt and it costed my mom $0), can somebody use actual words to explain what this magical "college experience" is? It was my "dream school" because I ate up whatever my high school counselors were feeding (neither of my birth parents or my older brother graduated high school, so they couldn't help), I left with a degree but not otherwise some different person because of the environment. I turned down Ivy grad school opportunities because the money worked out better going elsewhere and I truly had better "experiences" (liked the area, environment, professors, my classmates, research opportunities...) at both of my grad schools (neither with same global cache as UCLA) than I did in undergrad.

Considering the field that I decided to study (exercise physiology/health sciences), whether I went to HYPMS or local U probably had little relevance in my opportunities and how much I ended up making, and I'm doing pretty well. It can obviously make a difference depending on the field, but I think those fields are fewer than many are willing to acknowledge. It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
Tell my sister (a Brown, Oxford, and NYU grad) about this $5M guarantee, she's definitely <$500k for lifetime earnings at 37 and now at a coding bootcamp because she found out the hard way that field of study is often more important than name of school. You are in your own Bay Area/tech bubble.

BTW, according to the U.S. census study, the "average" college graduate earns $2.1M over their lifetime https://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf
I didn’t say it’s a guarantee. You can find extremes on both ends.

And your data is almost 20 years out of date.
Your made a pretty broad generalization, that doesn't take into account the countless factors (most obviously, field of study). For someone starting threads asking for creative ideas about how they can blow money, maybe $200k difference in undergrad cost is "chump change", but go to most neighborhoods in the country and say that and see what reaction you get.

And about this "college experience"...?
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Tingting1013 »

stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:48 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:39 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm

I went to UCLA for undergrad (finished with zero debt and it costed my mom $0), can somebody use actual words to explain what this magical "college experience" is? It was my "dream school" because I ate up whatever my high school counselors were feeding (neither of my birth parents or my older brother graduated high school, so they couldn't help), I left with a degree but not otherwise some different person because of the environment. I turned down Ivy grad school opportunities because the money worked out better going elsewhere and I truly had better "experiences" (liked the area, environment, professors, my classmates, research opportunities...) at both of my grad schools (neither with same global cache as UCLA) than I did in undergrad.

Considering the field that I decided to study (exercise physiology/health sciences), whether I went to HYPMS or local U probably had little relevance in my opportunities and how much I ended up making, and I'm doing pretty well. It can obviously make a difference depending on the field, but I think those fields are fewer than many are willing to acknowledge. It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
Tell my sister (a Brown, Oxford, and NYU grad) about this $5M guarantee, she's definitely <$500k for lifetime earnings at 37 and now at a coding bootcamp because she found out the hard way that field of study is often more important than name of school. You are in your own Bay Area/tech bubble.

BTW, according to the U.S. census study, the "average" college graduate earns $2.1M over their lifetime https://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf
I didn’t say it’s a guarantee. You can find extremes on both ends.

And your data is almost 20 years out of date.
Your made a pretty broad generalization, that doesn't take into account the countless factors (most obviously, field of study). For someone starting threads asking for creative ideas about how they can blow money, maybe $200k difference in undergrad cost is "chump change", but go to most neighborhoods in the country and say that and see what reaction you get.

And about this "college experience"...?
If I were in the market for a $3M house I would not ignore the ones that are listed for $3.2M

Much less if my budget was $5M
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:41 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.

Also, $100k is a chump change in some fields.
Some of my friends almost saved that much in the first two years out of college working at Google.
+1.

$100k vs $300k is chump change when you consider lifetime earnings in the mid seven figures.

The college experience is much more important.
I went to UCLA for undergrad (finished with zero debt and it costed my mom $0), can somebody use actual words to explain what this magical "college experience" is? It was my "dream school" because I ate up whatever my high school counselors were feeding (neither of my birth parents or my older brother graduated high school, so they couldn't help), I left with a degree but not otherwise some different person because of the environment. I turned down Ivy grad school opportunities because the money worked out better going elsewhere and I truly had better "experiences" (liked the area, environment, professors, my classmates, research opportunities...) at both of my grad schools (neither with same global cache as UCLA) than I did in undergrad.

Considering the field that I decided to study (exercise physiology/health sciences), whether I went to HYPMS or local U probably had little relevance in my opportunities and how much I ended up making, and I'm doing pretty well. It can obviously make a difference depending on the field, but I think those fields are fewer than many are willing to acknowledge. It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
The “general population” doesn’t have a college degree. Only 30% of adults do.

Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
If you qualified for HYPMS then you aren't an average college student to begin with. There is a famous study that shows this: the aforementioned Dale and Krueger.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by stoptothink »

livesoft wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:42 pm These recurring college threads make me wonder: Who reading this had a child or themselves admitted to HYPMS and didn't attend any of them?
I think that is partly the point: HYPMS is likely worth it (depending on the field of study), but is little known private U or out-of-state public that you'll be paying 3x more for than local U? I'd figure it out if my kids were HYPMS level (at 9 and 5, they are sharp, but I'm not sensing I have a NMSF in my home), but otherwise good luck to them if they decide somewhere more expensive than local U would offer them a better "college experience".
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by stoptothink »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:50 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:48 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:39 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm

Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
Tell my sister (a Brown, Oxford, and NYU grad) about this $5M guarantee, she's definitely <$500k for lifetime earnings at 37 and now at a coding bootcamp because she found out the hard way that field of study is often more important than name of school. You are in your own Bay Area/tech bubble.

BTW, according to the U.S. census study, the "average" college graduate earns $2.1M over their lifetime https://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p23-210.pdf
I didn’t say it’s a guarantee. You can find extremes on both ends.

And your data is almost 20 years out of date.
Your made a pretty broad generalization, that doesn't take into account the countless factors (most obviously, field of study). For someone starting threads asking for creative ideas about how they can blow money, maybe $200k difference in undergrad cost is "chump change", but go to most neighborhoods in the country and say that and see what reaction you get.

And about this "college experience"...?
If I were in the market for a $3M house I would not ignore the ones that are listed for $3.2M

Much less if my budget was $5M
Even if you can't explain how the $3.2M house (let alone the $5M one) is better? I'm still waiting for the explanation of this "college experience".
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:44 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:33 pm Take UVA or GT as examples. Highly selective Public Research I but in the same Tier 3 category as University of Utah or Arizona State. That the outcomes for the total population of Tier 3, of which few likely do end up in elite graduate programs is lower than his Tier 1 schools is expected.

But when taken against the better flagships which ARE selective the outcomes aren't going be nearly as pronounced...as seen in Dale and Krueger.
Even if that is the case, there is virtually a handful of flagships of that level.

If you are in state for one of them, they likely represent the best bang for the buck in undergraduate education.

If you are out of state, they cost about as much as HYPMS.
Again, if your kid qualified for HYPMS likely they can get a full ride at a selective flagship and the out of pocket costs will be different.

If your kid wouldn't have been selected by HYPMS then it's reasonable to guess their outcomes will likely be more middle of the pack.

It is also unlikely that they would be able to make as much use of the intangibles of going to a high cost but no-name private university.

It's like me buying a really nice set of golf clubs. My level of play won't let me get the performance out of them that a better player can.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by afan »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:08 pm
afan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:27 pm This assumes that all college, community vs flagship state vs elite private is equal for all students.

As others have noted, the elite privates have enough seats in required courses for everyone who needs them to take them on time. So their engineers, for example, graduate in 4 years. Your community college 2 years might not even get the student the perquisites for a desirable major, let alone actually to be permitted to enroll. They may need another year, or two, at the state U before they can start on their major. Again, assuming they can get in to the major at all after community college.
Many state universities have a 4 year path for local community colleges transfers to complete their major. This, of course, assumes that the student has an idea of what they want to do. If they don't you can easily spend 5 years at an elite private by switching majors after sophomore year as well.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/941 ... tion-rate/

83-90% graduate in 4 years.

While the average for all four year universities is 33.3% it is 88% at the University of Virginia and 83% at William and Mary. 76% for Berkeley.

Which indicates that if your local flagship is relatively selective you'll likely see similar 4 year graduation rates for the same level of student as in an Ivy.
Many of the elite colleges not only offer more money but they have more support services for kids who are struggling and ability to go on to financial aid if parents finances deteriorate while the student is enrolled. They have more availability of dedicated advising and more contact with professors. For those who are headed to graduate or professional school, the advising and faculty contact are crucial. Look at the proportion of grads of the elite privates versus even the public ivies who get advanced degrees.
There is a large difference between the value of most "elite privates" and HYPMS. I'm willing to pay for HYPMS. Less so for say, Brown or U Penn if my local flagship was decent.
At my alma mater, above 70% of graduates go on to advanced degrees, and as noted above, almost everyone who enters frosh year graduates. So about 70% of those who initially enroll end up with advanced degrees. Given the return on this kind of education, the odds are in the students' favor.
Certain majors require advanced degrees to make a career out of so whether an advanced degree has significant value depends on how much of the Maslow hierarchy it actually supports.

A BS Computer Science is likely more remunerative than a PhD in Asian Studies. It is easier to find a job with a BSCS than a PhD in Asian Studies.
Cost definitely matters. But you need to take into account all the costs, including years of attendance and opportunity costs down the road.
When you look simply at cost, you need to adjust for total years as a student. If it is more than 4, then factor the costs of the extra years
An extra year will run around $25K at the local state university which is about half the annual cost of a private 4 year using the listed numbers. While those numbers may not be exact, they probably are in the ballpark.
From a purely financial perspective, some advanced degrees are worth more than others. From my alma mater the largest share of advanced degrees have been MDs, essentially forever (~18% of graduates end up with medical degrees). Followed by law and business. A high proportion get PhDs, at least by national standards, but far fewer of them than professional degrees.

I agree you cannot practice law or medicine without the degree.

The difference between the top and lower Ivies is a lot less than reputation would suggest. Very similar academic preparation of the students coming in. Very similar distribution of career paths afterwards.

The major difference is whether the Ivy has a full range of professional schools, although Princeton has none but it's graduates do OK.

A flagship public "having a pathway" to a major from community college is a long way from someone being able to use it. You have to be able to take those courses at the community college. Then you have to be accepted into the major at the state U.

Take a look at what one needs to get in to Computer Science at Berkeley. Far more highly qualified applicants than there are slots. At HYPMS, you get admitted, then you can major in what you want.

Getting in to even Berkeley, in some program, does not mean they will let you even start an engineering program.

If you are not applying to an impacted major, which leads to less lucrative jobs out of college, then you don't have to worry about getting into the major at all. You do have to worry about getting your courses to graduate on time.

Of course changing majors can delay graduation. That would be the case anywhere.
Last edited by afan on Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by warowits »

Assuming my numbers are not crazy out of the ordinary here are out of pocket costs I am looking at, decent student, middleclass household income:

1. Community College- 6.5k a year. (live at home) Cheapest 4 year degree is 2 years CC and 2 years state school- $53k
2. In state school- 20k a year. 4 years state school $80k
3. Local Non elite private 33k year. 4 years private $132

The problem is kids who go to CC first have maybe a 15% chance of ultimately getting a 4 year degree. I know it is up to individual effort, but these numbers are abysmal. The state school I am looking at has a 37% four year graduation rate, and a 62% 6 year graduation rate. A four year degree seems statistically unlikely. The private school has 75% four year and 85% six year graduation rates. If my kid goes to the state school and graduates in 5 years, I would need to use the actual cost for the degree, 100K, for comparison. I also would need to subtract a years salary from the private school's cost, because they would likely be working an extra year if they went there.

Most likely outcomes are:

1. Go to CC and never get a bachelors degree, pay maybe 13k. Sure its cheap, but what did I buy?
2. Pay about $100k for a bachelors degree in 5 years.
3. Pay $132K minus 1 years salary, say $50k, total $82k.

Lots of potential outcomes but based on the numbers I have seen these are the most likely outcomes. That no name private school wins most of the time. The kids at the private school are statistically more likely to get a degree in four years than the public school kids are in six. Employment and income stats for graduates of State school and Private are broadly similar. Should I really tell my kid not to go to a nonelite private school?
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:02 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:46 pm OP, there are those in their 40ties who have a NW of $1mil and attended a variety of universities, from private to public. They reached their NW the old-fashioned way, they earned it.
I'm not sure why this is a particular virtue.
You seemed to be enthused about the possibility of your student having a $1mil in their forties. I simply showed others do it on their own.
The student should be focused on their studies, not thinking of investments growing for 15-20 years, the future gift that could very well be expected, but never received.
My kids will get X dollars for school. Everything else (inheritance, etc) is for the future. If they spend Y dollars for school where Y<X I'm not going to pocket the difference.

Why should they NOT think about $(X-Y) as an investment growing for the next 20 years?

Will this not reinforce the LYBMs concept and the value of Time in the Market?
I wouldn't incent my student to attend a college that might be a poor fit based on their hopes of possibly getting money later. How/when exactly will they get "title" of this amount that will grow, do I understand it would be via inheritance?

Perhaps they would rather go to a more expensive college that would come with the understanding their inheritance might be lower. Or, a better thing would be for them to be as successful as they can be. IMHO, inheritances shouldn't influence the recipients at all, until it is in their hands.

So far as your desire to teach LBYM and time in market, unless you give them the money before their inheritance, what exactly have they learned? Patience?
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JoMoney
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by JoMoney »

It was a big factor for me, but I don't think that's the norm. Some people want the prestige of a specific school and cost isn't a factor, the price is actually seen as part of it's elite-ness, sort of a way to show their wealth/status.
Some people want a "college experience" that involves the ability to party why young, future finances is a problem for old you... and I don't plan to get old.

Personally, I went to a California community college for a couple years at very low cost (could have been free if my parents had made a little less money), then got a job where the employer had a tuition assistance program that I made the most of. It took me longer than most to get an undergraduate degree, but it cost me next to nothing, and the only "debt" I acquired was in a commitment to work for my employer another year after the reimbursement... (I might have actually made a little money from selling back text books I was otherwise reimbursed for purchasing.)
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Tingting1013 »

warowits wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:06 pm Assuming my numbers are not crazy out of the ordinary here are out of pocket costs I am looking at, decent student, middleclass household income:

1. Community College- 6.5k a year. (live at home) Cheapest 4 year degree is 2 years CC and 2 years state school- $53k
2. In state school- 20k a year. 4 years state school $80k
3. Local Non elite private 33k year. 4 years private $132

The problem is kids who go to CC first have maybe a 15% chance of ultimately getting a 4 year degree. I know it is up to individual effort, but these numbers are abysmal. The state school I am looking at has a 37% four year graduation rate, and a 62% 6 year graduation rate. A four year degree seems statistically unlikely. The private school has 75% four year and 85% six year graduation rates. If my kid goes to the state school and graduates in 5 years, I would need to use the actual cost for the degree, 100K, for comparison. I also would need to subtract a years salary from the private school's cost, because they would likely be working an extra year if they went there.

Most likely outcomes are:

1. Go to CC and never get a bachelors degree, pay maybe 13k. Sure its cheap, but what did I buy?
2. Pay about $100k for a bachelors degree in 5 years.
3. Pay $132K minus 1 years salary, say $50k, total $82k.

Lots of potential outcomes but based on the numbers I have seen these are the most likely outcomes. That no name private school wins most of the time. The kids at the private school are statistically more likely to get a degree in four years than the public school kids are in six. Employment and income stats for graduates of State school and Private are broadly similar. Should I really tell my kid not to go to a nonelite private school?
The question is, why is the graduation rate so low at the state school? How much of it is the student’s circumstance and how much of it is the school’s?
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:03 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:44 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:33 pm Take UVA or GT as examples. Highly selective Public Research I but in the same Tier 3 category as University of Utah or Arizona State. That the outcomes for the total population of Tier 3, of which few likely do end up in elite graduate programs is lower than his Tier 1 schools is expected.

But when taken against the better flagships which ARE selective the outcomes aren't going be nearly as pronounced...as seen in Dale and Krueger.
Even if that is the case, there is virtually a handful of flagships of that level.

If you are in state for one of them, they likely represent the best bang for the buck in undergraduate education.

If you are out of state, they cost about as much as HYPMS.
Again, if your kid qualified for HYPMS likely they can get a full ride at a selective flagship and the out of pocket costs will be different.
You'd be surprised.

Image

What would you choose?
If your kid wouldn't have been selected by HYPMS then it's reasonable to guess their outcomes will likely be more middle of the pack.

It is also unlikely that they would be able to make as much use of the intangibles of going to a high cost but no-name private university.

It's like me buying a really nice set of golf clubs. My level of play won't let me get the performance out of them that a better player can.
I do agree (and stated as much earlier) that few schools are worth what they charge.
I wouldn't pay $300K for USC.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by beyou »

Kids are unique and any such broad rules are just silly.

If this is only a financial decision, don’t have kids.
Had I not gotten married and had kids, could have retired at 40.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

beyou wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:15 pm Kids are unique and any such broad rules are just silly.

If this is only a financial decision, don’t have kids.
Had I not gotten married and had kids, could have retired at 40.
This. :beer
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by warner25 »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:54 pm
esteen wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:05 pmAs someone jokingly said it's where you can meet your spouse, but there's a lot of truth in that.
And I think we're WAAAAY past the point of thinking that any parent or student should believe that any part of the value of college is a MRS degree.
I don't know why you are dismissive of this. All anecdotal, of course, but I met my spouse in college, as did three of my best friends, and one roommate, and more of my classmates than I can remember to count. It just seems much more likely to meet someone there, surrounded by unmarried people who are of similar ages and have many other things in common, compared to later in life. I'm only in my mid-30s; has everything changed in the last decade?
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:58 pm
livesoft wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:42 pm These recurring college threads make me wonder: Who reading this had a child or themselves admitted to HYPMS and didn't attend any of them?
I think that is partly the point: HYPMS is likely worth it (depending on the field of study), but is little known private U or out-of-state public that you'll be paying 3x more for than local U?
Based on our elder's experience with getting (no) merit money at top OOS publics our younger's college list is likely to be devoid of any OOS publics.
Little known privates weren't in the picture to begin with.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by otinkyad »

warowits wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:06 pm The problem is kids who go to CC first have maybe a 15% chance of ultimately getting a 4 year degree. I know it is up to individual effort, but these numbers are abysmal. The state school I am looking at has a 37% four year graduation rate, and a 62% 6 year graduation rate. A four year degree seems statistically unlikely. The private school has 75% four year and 85% six year graduation rates. If my kid goes to the state school and graduates in 5 years, I would need to use the actual cost for the degree, 100K, for comparison. I also would need to subtract a years salary from the private school's cost, because they would likely be working an extra year if they went there.

Most likely outcomes are:

1. Go to CC and never get a bachelors degree, pay maybe 13k. Sure its cheap, but what did I buy?
2. Pay about $100k for a bachelors degree in 5 years.
3. Pay $132K minus 1 years salary, say $50k, total $82k.

Lots of potential outcomes but based on the numbers I have seen these are the most likely outcomes. That no name private school wins most of the time. The kids at the private school are statistically more likely to get a degree in four years than the public school kids are in six. Employment and income stats for graduates of State school and Private are broadly similar. Should I really tell my kid not to go to a nonelite private school?
I’m obviously not a fan of cost-only planning, but statistics is harder than this. Are the public and private school SAT scores the same? Would you expect students of the private school to perform as badly if they went to the public school? Both graduation rates and mid-career incomes correlate well with test scores. Early career incomes correlate well with majors. Correlations to the cost and prestige of the school are much smaller (ignoring the HYPMS effect, which doesn’t skew the overall numbers much). Modestly selective engineering schools (e.g., RPI, RIT, WPI, or Colorado School of Mines) have high graduation rates and incomes. The kids who were admitted there but went to decent in-state public schools instead probably do well, too, as a group.

I don’t need to get millions of kids through college, just the one. Costs are important (especially when you use the actual costs rather than inflated ones), but so are more than a handful of other factors. I care about my kid’s costs and chances to graduate, and the school’s sticker price and graduation rate are at best a starting point. If you stop looking after you see the sticker prices, you’re making an uninformed decision.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by warowits »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:10 pm The question is, why is the graduation rate so low at the state school? How much of it is the student’s circumstance and how much of it is the school’s?
Whatever it is, it is happening at most state schools, as the country wide averages for state universities are slightly worse than this particular schools graduation rates. I could find graduation rates by gender and by race, but no one seems to be publishing graduation rates by family income, which is where I suspect I would find the answers you are looking for.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.
Smart highly motivated kids end up together in the harder classes, no matter where you go to school.

If your kid is smart enough to get into the top schools, they will be in the top 5% at Flagship State. And they will be taking classes with the other top 5% students.

You don't need the entire school to be 100% smart and highly motivated people to get the advantages.
But what do you do with a kid who is top 0.05%?

The truth is, very few places can offer an appropriate peer group for them.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by TomatoTomahto »

warner25 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:30 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:54 pm
esteen wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:05 pmAs someone jokingly said it's where you can meet your spouse, but there's a lot of truth in that.
And I think we're WAAAAY past the point of thinking that any parent or student should believe that any part of the value of college is a MRS degree.
I don't know why you are dismissive of this. All anecdotal, of course, but I met my spouse in college, as did three of my best friends, and one roommate, and more of my classmates than I can remember to count. It just seems much more likely to meet someone there, surrounded by unmarried people who are of similar ages and have many other things in common, compared to later in life. I'm only in my mid-30s; has everything changed in the last decade?
I think the MRS degree refers specifically to females attending college to find a spouse to marry. Of course many couples find each other at college and many continue in relationships long after graduation.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by fwellimort »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:34 pm Based on our elder's experience with getting (no) merit money at top OOS publics our younger's college list is likely to be devoid of any OOS publics.
Little known privates weren't in the picture to begin with.
This has been my experience too.

Publics today are expensive. Not everyone has UCB, UCLA, UMich, UVa, College of William and Mary, Georgia Tech (what about non-tech people?), etc. as in state cost.

On top of all that, publics today are broke. Getting scholarships from most reputable public schools are almost impossible especially as an out of state student who isn't a minority. And this is especially true as an International (though my international friend did get a full ride to UCB -he got rejected to all the top privates somehow-).

There seems to be a train of thought that those who can get into these top schools get scholarships easily elsewhere. That's not the case.
Ironically, the most affordable option for me was Washington Univ in St Louis.

Also, I would like to note in state cost of attendance isn't exactly that 'cheap' either.
And to those that mentioned about taking courses in instate with highly competitive students. How 'highly' competitive are the average top 5% of students in many in states? My roommate at Columbia who has no thought for academia finished Modern Abstract Algebra in 11th grade. And I took courses at a reputable state school and the 'honors' physics courses I took which was filled with 3rd years had an average midterm test score of 62 while I scored 97 (and I thought I failed).
Am I just out of luck especially considering state schools like UCB and UMich are even more expensive than privates OOS?
Last edited by fwellimort on Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:17 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:48 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.
Smart highly motivated kids end up together in the harder classes, no matter where you go to school.

If your kid is smart enough to get into the top schools, they will be in the top 5% at Flagship State. And they will be taking classes with the other top 5% students.

You don't need the entire school to be 100% smart and highly motivated people to get the advantages.
But what do you do with a kid who is top 0.05%?

The truth is, very few places can offer an appropriate peer group for them.
Most kids are not 0.05%, even if their parents think they are. The kids who really are in the top 0.05% will likely have full rides to the school of their choice.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm I do agree (and stated as much earlier) that few schools are worth what they charge.
I wouldn't pay $300K for USC.
Your spreadsheet is very interesting for a number of things, but it’s hard to imagine the meeting where $4,000 merit aid was decided (unless it was formulaic and deterministic). Tuft’s Syndrome would have resulted in a deferral. A larger merit award would have (possibly but unlikely) put them in the running. A $4k award is kind of like a $5k bequest in a will just to make sure that a suit can’t be brought that the person was forgotten 😄
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by fwellimort »

anon_investor wrote: Most kids are not 0.05%, even if their parents think they are. The kids who really are in the top 0.05% will likely have full rides to the school of their choice.
Guess I messed up my one semester in 10th grade so all those national math competitions didn't count.

I had awful grades in Chemistry (did superb in AP Chem though) and Spanish in high school out of laziness.

I had the academics to take Modern Algebra first year of college. Guess none of that counts when it comes to 'full ride of choice'. Public schools today don't care.
There's not enough funding with many reputable public schools.
Maybe things are different for those with say 20+ AP courses but some people are very slanted in talent (my mathematical ability was quite above average while my foreign language ability was miserable (due to laziness)). Privates in my experience notice slanted students better than public schools; WuStL for instance was merit based though I chose Columbia at the end (note: Ivy league schools have no merit based scholarships).

The only options then is privates for more aid and at that point, the ones with most aid is the top privates (merit and/or need based).
Last edited by fwellimort on Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by TomatoTomahto »

anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:57 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:48 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.
Smart highly motivated kids end up together in the harder classes, no matter where you go to school.

If your kid is smart enough to get into the top schools, they will be in the top 5% at Flagship State. And they will be taking classes with the other top 5% students.

You don't need the entire school to be 100% smart and highly motivated people to get the advantages.
But what do you do with a kid who is top 0.05%?

The truth is, very few places can offer an appropriate peer group for them.
Most kids are not 0.05%, even if their parents think they are. The kids who really are in the top 0.05% will likely have full rides to the school of their choice.
Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:02 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm I do agree (and stated as much earlier) that few schools are worth what they charge.
I wouldn't pay $300K for USC.
Your spreadsheet is very interesting for a number of things, but it’s hard to imagine the meeting where $4,000 merit aid was decided (unless it was formulaic and deterministic). Tuft’s Syndrome would have resulted in a deferral. A larger merit award would have (possibly but unlikely) put them in the running. A $4k award is kind of like a $5k bequest in a will just to make sure that a suit can’t be brought that the person was forgotten 😄
:D

USC's aid, like all privates in the spreadsheet (except Vandy) was need-based.
He could have possibly angled out more if he designated them as his 1st choice on NMF application.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:02 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm I do agree (and stated as much earlier) that few schools are worth what they charge.
I wouldn't pay $300K for USC.
Your spreadsheet is very interesting for a number of things, but it’s hard to imagine the meeting where $4,000 merit aid was decided (unless it was formulaic and deterministic). Tuft’s Syndrome would have resulted in a deferral. A larger merit award would have (possibly but unlikely) put them in the running. A $4k award is kind of like a $5k bequest in a will just to make sure that a suit can’t be brought that the person was forgotten 😄
:D

USC's aid, like all privates in the spreadsheet (except Vandy) was need-based.
He could have possibly angled out more if he designated them as his 1st choice on NMF application.
Oops. I didn’t know USC was need-based. So much for that deconstruction :D
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:57 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:48 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.
Smart highly motivated kids end up together in the harder classes, no matter where you go to school.

If your kid is smart enough to get into the top schools, they will be in the top 5% at Flagship State. And they will be taking classes with the other top 5% students.

You don't need the entire school to be 100% smart and highly motivated people to get the advantages.
But what do you do with a kid who is top 0.05%?

The truth is, very few places can offer an appropriate peer group for them.
Most kids are not 0.05%, even if their parents think they are. The kids who really are in the top 0.05% will likely have full rides to the school of their choice.
As my spreadsheet demonstrates, that was not the case for our elder, who is, by several objective measures, one of the top few hundred STEM kids in the nation in his cohort (and significantly better that that in some areas). I can't provide more specifics, as it would be deanonymizing.
Last edited by Vulcan on Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:07 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm USC's aid, like all privates in the spreadsheet (except Vandy) was need-based.
He could have possibly angled out more if he designated them as his 1st choice on NMF application.
Oops. I didn’t know USC was need-based. So much for that deconstruction :D
They are known to give out a few hundred full-tuition merits, so that was their role on the college list (same with Vandy).

Apparently, USC wasn't sufficiently interested ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:57 pm Most kids are not 0.05%, even if their parents think they are. The kids who really are in the top 0.05% will likely have full rides to the school of their choice.
Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
True. Once you get to top 20 USNWR, merit awards disappear completely. It's all need-based.

Vanderbilt, at #15, is the only big exceptions.
Last edited by Vulcan on Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Harry Livermore »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm You'd be surprised.

Image

What would you choose?
Vulcan,
Love the spreadsheet. It mirrors the ones I did for son #1 and daughter.
And to the rest of the gang... I think there are many reasons behind choosing the right school. And of course a very serious reason is cost. It certainly was one of the primary drivers for us. But this thread (and the others like it that I have read here and on other sites like College Confidential) indicates it's not a one-size-fits-all, logic-only decision. Every human (meaning your/ my kids) is unique. Results are not guaranteed.
I can certainly respect all of the differing views I read on the topic.
Cheers
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:07 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:02 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm I do agree (and stated as much earlier) that few schools are worth what they charge.
I wouldn't pay $300K for USC.
Your spreadsheet is very interesting for a number of things, but it’s hard to imagine the meeting where $4,000 merit aid was decided (unless it was formulaic and deterministic). Tuft’s Syndrome would have resulted in a deferral. A larger merit award would have (possibly but unlikely) put them in the running. A $4k award is kind of like a $5k bequest in a will just to make sure that a suit can’t be brought that the person was forgotten 😄
:D

USC's aid, like all privates in the spreadsheet (except Vandy) was need-based.
He could have possibly angled out more if he designated them as his 1st choice on NMF application.
Oops. I didn’t know USC was need-based. So much for that deconstruction :D
Their crew team is well funded. :twisted:
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

afan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:03 pm The difference between the top and lower Ivies is a lot less than reputation would suggest. Very similar academic preparation of the students coming in. Very similar distribution of career paths afterwards.

The major difference is whether the Ivy has a full range of professional schools, although Princeton has none but it's graduates do OK.
To me the primary reason that I would pay for Harvard over a lesser school is that someone like Xi Mingze would go to Harvard but not so likely a lower Ivy.
A flagship public "having a pathway" to a major from community college is a long way from someone being able to use it. You have to be able to take those courses at the community college. Then you have to be accepted into the major at the state U.

Take a look at what one needs to get in to Computer Science at Berkeley. Far more highly qualified applicants than there are slots. At HYPMS, you get admitted, then you can major in what you want.

Getting in to even Berkeley, in some program, does not mean they will let you even start an engineering program.

If you are not applying to an impacted major, which leads to less lucrative jobs out of college, then you don't have to worry about getting into the major at all. You do have to worry about getting your courses to graduate on time.

Of course changing majors can delay graduation. That would be the case anywhere.
If you can’t make it into Comp Sci at Berkeley via transfer then HYPMS was never really a viable option either...
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by cchrissyy »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:04 am "When it comes to choosing a school, the primary factor is out of pocket cost."

I disagree.

A few days ago, my HS senior chose his college, and everywhere he applied and was admitted to is part of the same state system, so the tuition and fees were the same but the cost of living depends on the city. When choosing between campuses we gave absolutely no thought to the out of pocket cost differences between 4 years of living in, for example, San Fransisco versus Sonoma. My kid tried to bring it up and I waved it away as nothing he needed to worry about. All I care about are his education, opportunities, and social/emotional experience. I don't care about saving a little on rent for this short time period.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by fwellimort »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:19 pm True. Once you get to top 20 USNWR, merit awards disappear completely. It's all need-based.

Vanderbilt, at #15, is the only big exceptions.
This I agree. Very few give merit aid once you hit top privates. The ones that are well known for merit aids are USC, Vanderbilt, WuStL and the way the merit aid is handed honestly feels pretty random (outside USC).

Columbia for instance has no merit aid. Only need based.
There are 'merit aid' for the very top students at schools like Duke but those are exceptionally difficult to get; I believe one of my relatives in the past got them but I wouldn't bet on such luck for application purposes.
Last edited by fwellimort on Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:57 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:48 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:37 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.
Smart highly motivated kids end up together in the harder classes, no matter where you go to school.

If your kid is smart enough to get into the top schools, they will be in the top 5% at Flagship State. And they will be taking classes with the other top 5% students.

You don't need the entire school to be 100% smart and highly motivated people to get the advantages.
But what do you do with a kid who is top 0.05%?

The truth is, very few places can offer an appropriate peer group for them.
Most kids are not 0.05%, even if their parents think they are. The kids who really are in the top 0.05% will likely have full rides to the school of their choice.
Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
MarkRoulo
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by MarkRoulo »

warowits wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:06 pm ...

The problem is kids who go to CC first have maybe a 15% chance of ultimately getting a 4 year degree. I know it is up to individual effort, but these numbers are abysmal. The state school I am looking at has a 37% four year graduation rate, and a 62% 6 year graduation rate. A four year degree seems statistically unlikely. The private school has 75% four year and 85% six year graduation rates. If my kid goes to the state school and graduates in 5 years, I would need to use the actual cost for the degree, 100K, for comparison. I also would need to subtract a years salary from the private school's cost, because they would likely be working an extra year if they went there.

Most likely outcomes are:

1. Go to CC and never get a bachelors degree, pay maybe 13k. Sure its cheap, but what did I buy?
2. Pay about $100k for a bachelors degree in 5 years.
3. Pay $132K minus 1 years salary, say $50k, total $82k.

Lots of potential outcomes but based on the numbers I have seen these are the most likely outcomes. That no name private school wins most of the time. The kids at the private school are statistically more likely to get a degree in four years than the public school kids are in six. Employment and income stats for graduates of State school and Private are broadly similar. Should I really tell my kid not to go to a nonelite private school?
Statistics can be tricky.

If one randomly selects students from CC colleges, state schools, and select privates (say, Vanderbilt or Duke) then chances of graduating with a 4-year degree within six years are probably something like you say: ~15%, ~60%, ~85%.

But the college isn't the prime determiner here. If we sent the students who were going to the select private school (Duke, Vanderbilt) off to the CC then I'd expect them to still get 4-year degrees within six years at a rate pretty close to 85%. These kids (on average) have good SAT scores, good high school grades (so they know how to play the school game), most likely have parents who will be on their case to graduate, etc. They aren't going to fail to graduate just because they spend two years at a CC.

The *population* at the CC is less likely to get a 4-year degree because the population of students at the CC is quite different from that at the select private. Differences in things such as (a) poor academic readiness, (b) external responsibilities (such as work or caring for family members), (c) less experience navigating college, etc. Send a bunch of these off to the select private and many/most of them won't graduate either.

If we know something (or a lot) about a given set of students this knowledge will be more useful when predicting college completion than knowing which colleges the students are attending. But those students do cluster so if you know nothing about the students but do know the school you can still make a reasonable prediction, but the college isn't causal.
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Vulcan
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

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anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
If you want to serve in the military, then I suppose it's a great deal. If you don't, then you are limiting your options (particularly the option of not serving in the military).
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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nigel_ht
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm
You'd be surprised.

Image

What would you choose?
Cal tech. With MIT a close second.

But then I’m a space geek and JPL > Lincoln Labs

Sigh...okay, yeah, MIT. I never had a hard time finding a party in Boston.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:34 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
If you want to serve in the military, then I suppose it's a great deal. If you don't, then you are limiting your options (particularly the option of not serving in the military).
Top 0.05% end up at West Point or Annapolis if military is an end goal...ok, I guess Colorado Springs as well.
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Vulcan
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

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nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:37 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm What would you choose?
Cal tech. With MIT a close second.

But then I’m a space geek and JPL > Lincoln Labs

Sigh...okay, yeah, MIT. I never had a hard time finding a party in Boston.
:sharebeer
Last edited by Vulcan on Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:34 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
If you want to serve in the military, then I suppose it's a great deal. If you don't, then you are limiting your options (particularly the option of not serving in the military).
It is not for everyone, but an alternative that is not as often discussed.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

cchrissyy wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:26 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:04 am "When it comes to choosing a school, the primary factor is out of pocket cost."

I disagree.

A few days ago, my HS senior chose his college, and everywhere he applied and was admitted to is part of the same state system, so the tuition and fees were the same but the cost of living depends on the city. When choosing between campuses we gave absolutely no thought to the out of pocket cost differences between 4 years of living in, for example, San Fransisco versus Sonoma. My kid tried to bring it up and I waved it away as nothing he needed to worry about. All I care about are his education, opportunities, and social/emotional experience. I don't care about saving a little on rent for this short time period.
And if he picked an out of state school like U Michigan for 3x the cost that would make no difference?
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