The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

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fwellimort
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by fwellimort »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:44 pm And if he picked an out of state school like U Michigan for 3x the cost that would make no difference?
Within reasonable means. Within reasonable means.
There's no need to pay 3x for UMich when you have instate for UC schools.

Everything doesn't need to be so extreme. :sharebeer
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nigel_ht
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:46 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:44 pm And if he picked an out of state school like U Michigan for 3x the cost that would make no difference?
Within reasonable means. Within reasonable means.
There's no need to pay 3x for UMich when you have instate for UC schools.

Everything doesn't need to be so extreme. :sharebeer
Lol, my colleague had set up a sweet deal for his daughter at Baylor. She up and decided nope and he ended up paying full price at Auburn.

Another had done three pre-paid tuition 529 for the state flagship. All three went to out of state privates...

We’re all semi-academic (university research arm). There are some...I wouldn’t call them extreme but far more costly than desired outcomes where 2-3X isn’t out of the ballpark.

One commented to me “well, it’s still cheaper than a divorce lawyer”.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by smitcat »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:40 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:34 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
If you want to serve in the military, then I suppose it's a great deal. If you don't, then you are limiting your options (particularly the option of not serving in the military).
Top 0.05% end up at West Point or Annapolis if military is an end goal...ok, I guess Colorado Springs as well.
You have overlooked the Maritime academies as well as the Coast Guard.
Maritime grads (regiment or not) are just about guaranteed jobs at above average pay grades.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by cchrissyy »

I didn't say that, I said the decision hinged on factors other than out of pocket cost.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by afan »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:48 pm
But what do you do with a kid who is top 0.05%?

The truth is, very few places can offer an appropriate peer group for them.
Actually, even the flagship state schools work well for them. There will always be faculty on the lookout for the rare brilliant student. There do not have to be a lot of them. The ones there are will be identified and pursued.

Yes, the intro courses will be painfully slow for them at a state U. But they will be slow for them at Caltech too.

With about 3.5 million students graduating high school each year, the top 1% will be 35,000 people. That is about enough to fill the classes at the Ivies, plus places like Stanford, MIT and Caltech (which should be part of HYPMS) allowing for some to go to state U, liberal arts colleges or elsewhere.

The top 5% of them, 1,750 people, are not enough to fill H alone, let alone HYPSMC. They are sought after by all those schools and those particular universities gather a disproportionate share. But these top 0.05% people cannot make up the bulk of the class, even at the very top schools. There just are not enough of them.

These genius-level people go to college with the merely very bright top 2%, who make up the bulk of the class at these colleges. They may have to take some entry level courses although many place out of them based on what they learned before they arrived. There are higher level undergrad and graduate courses, there is research. Even places way down the pecking order from HYPSMC will find plenty to stimulate these kids. As long as the programs are not so rigid that they are left twiddling their thumbs and getting bored in too many slow paced classes.
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afan
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by afan »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:23 pm
afan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:03 pm The difference between the top and lower Ivies is a lot less than reputation would suggest. Very similar academic preparation of the students coming in. Very similar distribution of career paths afterwards.

The major difference is whether the Ivy has a full range of professional schools, although Princeton has none but it's graduates do OK.
To me the primary reason that I would pay for Harvard over a lesser school is that someone like Xi Mingze would go to Harvard but not so likely a lower Ivy.
A flagship public "having a pathway" to a major from community college is a long way from someone being able to use it. You have to be able to take those courses at the community college. Then you have to be accepted into the major at the state U.

Take a look at what one needs to get in to Computer Science at Berkeley. Far more highly qualified applicants than there are slots. At HYPMS, you get admitted, then you can major in what you want.

Getting in to even Berkeley, in some program, does not mean they will let you even start an engineering program.

If you are not applying to an impacted major, which leads to less lucrative jobs out of college, then you don't have to worry about getting into the major at all. You do have to worry about getting your courses to graduate on time.

Of course changing majors can delay graduation. That would be the case anywhere.

If you can’t make it into Comp Sci at Berkeley via transfer then HYPMS was never really a viable option either..
.
Probably not. But the point is that "go to cc then transfer to Berkeley CS" is much easier said than done. The vast majority of people in cc's have no chance of getting into that major. For the rare one who does, then yes, they saved some money in their first two years. The odds are so heavily against them that it would be a terrible strategy.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by beyou »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:34 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
If you want to serve in the military, then I suppose it's a great deal. If you don't, then you are limiting your options (particularly the option of not serving in the military).
Note if one wants to go far in the Navy, after the USNA, next most productive college to generate high ranking officers is a small expensive private engineering college with NROTC and nuclear engineering major. They also have aerospace engineering major that has yielded the head of NASA and astronauts. Generic state school would put one at a disadvantage with certain career choices.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

smitcat wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:09 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:40 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:34 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
If you want to serve in the military, then I suppose it's a great deal. If you don't, then you are limiting your options (particularly the option of not serving in the military).
Top 0.05% end up at West Point or Annapolis if military is an end goal...ok, I guess Colorado Springs as well.
You have overlooked the Maritime academies as well as the Coast Guard.
Maritime grads (regiment or not) are just about guaranteed jobs at above average pay grades.
No. My kid was thinking about New London but a couple of so-so semesters tanked that idea.

Merchant marine was an option but he decided he wanted to try the PA route and when the time comes do a direct commission if that’s still his interest.

Kids are fickle.
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warner25
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by warner25 »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:51 pm
warner25 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:30 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:54 pm
esteen wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:05 pmAs someone jokingly said it's where you can meet your spouse, but there's a lot of truth in that.
And I think we're WAAAAY past the point of thinking that any parent or student should believe that any part of the value of college is a MRS degree.
I don't know why you are dismissive of this. All anecdotal, of course, but I met my spouse in college, as did three of my best friends, and one roommate, and more of my classmates than I can remember to count. It just seems much more likely to meet someone there, surrounded by unmarried people who are of similar ages and have many other things in common, compared to later in life. I'm only in my mid-30s; has everything changed in the last decade?
I think the MRS degree refers specifically to females attending college to find a spouse to marry. Of course many couples find each other at college and many continue in relationships long after graduation.
Right, and I think that using the term "MRS degree" is being dismissive of this reality. It's also unfair to women. As a heterosexual male, I admit that I was aware of the male-female ratio at various schools as a 17 year-old, and I chose an undergraduate institution that was 65% female rather than a service academy or engineering school that was 10-20% female. It's as valid as any other factor that people commonly consider (quality of dining halls, dorms, recreation facilities, etc.)
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Vulcan »

afan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:24 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:48 pm
But what do you do with a kid who is top 0.05%?

The truth is, very few places can offer an appropriate peer group for them.
Actually, even the flagship state schools work well for them. There will always be faculty on the lookout for the rare brilliant student. There do not have to be a lot of them. The ones there are will be identified and pursued.

Yes, the intro courses will be painfully slow for them at a state U. But they will be slow for them at Caltech too.

With about 3.5 million students graduating high school each year, the top 1% will be 35,000 people. That is about enough to fill the classes at the Ivies, plus places like Stanford, MIT and Caltech (which should be part of HYPMS) allowing for some to go to state U, liberal arts colleges or elsewhere.

The top 5% of them, 1,750 people, are not enough to fill H alone, let alone HYPSMC. They are sought after by all those schools and those particular universities gather a disproportionate share. But these top 0.05% people cannot make up the bulk of the class, even at the very top schools. There just are not enough of them.

These genius-level people go to college with the merely very bright top 2%, who make up the bulk of the class at these colleges. They may have to take some entry level courses although many place out of them based on what they learned before they arrived. There are higher level undergrad and graduate courses, there is research. Even places way down the pecking order from HYPSMC will find plenty to stimulate these kids. As long as the programs are not so rigid that they are left twiddling their thumbs and getting bored in too many slow paced classes.
Yes, I would hope the professors try their best to identify and motivate the superstars in their class - but this conversation was about the peer group, which is as, if not more, important.

The thing is, it is easy to think that the difference between top 5% and the top 0.5% is a lot more more significant than one between 0.5% and 0.05%. But performance at that level accrues exponentially.

Image

(Note the logarithmic scale)

The reality for us is that our DS simply has no in-state peers where his field of study is concerned. Heck, even at a place like Vandy he would likely be at the top of the food chain, from what we can see.

At MIT, he rubs shoulders with, and looks up to, the very top people in the entire world - and he loves not being the smartest guy in every room.

So that's what we are paying for first and foremost. Not the prestige (though prestige is nice, I won't lie).
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by dodecahedron »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:03 pm Again, if your kid qualified for HYPMS likely they can get a full ride at a selective flagship and the out of pocket costs will be different.
Not true in NY. I personally know a good number of students who were admitted to HYPMS who were middle or upper middle class who were offered far better financial aid at HYPMS than at any of the flagship SUNY's. In some cases, it wound up being cheaper for the student to attend HYPMS than to live at home and commute to local SUNY.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

beyou wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:39 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:34 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm Top 0.05% are top 1,750 high school graduates in an average year. HYPMS won’t give a full ride to them if parents make too much. A merit based school probably would.
That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
If you want to serve in the military, then I suppose it's a great deal. If you don't, then you are limiting your options (particularly the option of not serving in the military).
Note if one wants to go far in the Navy, after the USNA, next most productive college to generate high ranking officers is a small expensive private engineering college with NROTC and nuclear engineering major. They also have aerospace engineering major that has yielded the head of NASA and astronauts. Generic state school would put one at a disadvantage with certain career choices.
I agree, if you want to make the military a career, go to an academy. But not everyone who does ROTC wants to make the military a life long career. In my professional life I met many people who did ROTC to pay for college and had successful careers after serving.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by smitcat »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:42 pm
smitcat wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:09 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:40 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:34 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm

That is crazy to think about. How come no one ever mentions ROTC? A few HS classmates did ROTC at ivys.
If you want to serve in the military, then I suppose it's a great deal. If you don't, then you are limiting your options (particularly the option of not serving in the military).
Top 0.05% end up at West Point or Annapolis if military is an end goal...ok, I guess Colorado Springs as well.
You have overlooked the Maritime academies as well as the Coast Guard.
Maritime grads (regiment or not) are just about guaranteed jobs at above average pay grades.
No. My kid was thinking about New London but a couple of so-so semesters tanked that idea.

Merchant marine was an option but he decided he wanted to try the PA route and when the time comes do a direct commission if that’s still his interest.

Kids are fickle.
Best colleges for high ROI....
https://www.bestcolleges.com/features/b ... -colleges/
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by beyou »

dodecahedron wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:45 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:03 pm Again, if your kid qualified for HYPMS likely they can get a full ride at a selective flagship and the out of pocket costs will be different.
Not true in NY. I personally know a good number of students who were admitted to HYPMS who were middle or upper middle class who were offered far better financial aid at HYPMS than at any of the flagship SUNY's. In some cases, it wound up being cheaper for the student to attend HYPMS than to live at home and commute to local SUNY.
Seems hard to believe since most of the cost is room and board at SUNY. That said, nobody can beat a full free ride, one that Harvard and Yale can afford to give as many students as are needy. Few other colleges can afford to do that. My kids got partial merit scholarships from flagship SUNY schools and they were by far our cheapest options (ones we turned down to spend 3x as much at schools where they could network with top students globally, not just top in NYS). One of these kids got far interviewing with all the top tech firms and working at a good one now. Other kid got into Ivy grad program from his Ivy undergrad program. I have met many of their friends, and they met some truly outstanding people, kids who now work for Microsoft, and other big names now.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by tibbitts »

AnEngineer wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:26 am Be careful about assuming 2 years CC + 2 years state. It's easy to end up taking more than 4 years. I met one student who succumbed to particularly bad advice at the CC and was looking at 3+3.
Good point: the quality of advice in navigating the complexity of requirement varies a lot. Ultimately you end up being responsible for the results yourself so you have to research everything carefully.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by tibbitts »

These threads always amuse me. The primary factor for picking a college for 90% of the population is finding one that's willing to accept you. The other 10% will be successful even if they never graduate from college.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by FoolStreet »

HIMcDunnough wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:54 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:29 am Two, they are hard to get into so a kid able to make it into Harvard can probably get a full ride at the local flagship state school.
This is going to vary some depending on where you live, but for many states, if your kid can't get a free ride or something close to a strong in-state school, the other, more expensive, schools your kid can get into probably aren't worth the money. I'm obviously discounting the student experience part of things, but I'm constantly amazed by the amount of money people pay for "non name brand" private schools.
Can you elaborate and maybe provide an example? Your point is chilling.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Big Dog »

Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:06 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:02 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:11 pm I do agree (and stated as much earlier) that few schools are worth what they charge.
I wouldn't pay $300K for USC.
Your spreadsheet is very interesting for a number of things, but it’s hard to imagine the meeting where $4,000 merit aid was decided (unless it was formulaic and deterministic). Tuft’s Syndrome would have resulted in a deferral. A larger merit award would have (possibly but unlikely) put them in the running. A $4k award is kind of like a $5k bequest in a will just to make sure that a suit can’t be brought that the person was forgotten 😄
:D

USC's aid, like all privates in the spreadsheet (except Vandy) was need-based.
He could have possibly angled out more if he designated them as his 1st choice on NMF application.
USC as in USoCal Trojans? They've been offering big merit aid for years, and continue do to so. Have to apply early for the real money, however. The NMSF half-tuition scholly used to be near automatic if you change your list to put 'SC first on the NM app.

https://admission.usc.edu/wp-content/up ... rships.pdf
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by fwellimort »

fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:57 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:34 pm Based on our elder's experience with getting (no) merit money at top OOS publics our younger's college list is likely to be devoid of any OOS publics.
Little known privates weren't in the picture to begin with.
Publics today are expensive. Not everyone has UCB, UCLA, UMich, UVa, College of William and Mary, Georgia Tech (what about non-tech people?), etc. as in state cost.

On top of all that, publics today are broke. Getting scholarships from most reputable public schools are almost impossible especially as an out of state student who isn't a minority. And this is especially true as an International (though my international friend did get a full ride to UCB -he got rejected to all the top privates somehow-).

There seems to be a train of thought that those who can get into these top schools get scholarships easily elsewhere. That's not the case.
This would be my reply to:
FoolStreet wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:04 pm
HIMcDunnough wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:54 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:29 am Two, they are hard to get into so a kid able to make it into Harvard can probably get a full ride at the local flagship state school.
This is going to vary some depending on where you live, but for many states, if your kid can't get a free ride or something close to a strong in-state school, the other, more expensive, schools your kid can get into probably aren't worth the money. I'm obviously discounting the student experience part of things, but I'm constantly amazed by the amount of money people pay for "non name brand" private schools.
I think some people here are misinformed about how difficult it is to get scholarships at in-state flagships today.
Sometimes it's not about academics. Maybe your family earns 'too much' to apply to these scholarships (or at least be competitive relative to other less fortunate candidates).
Maybe your family background is not diverse enough.
A lot of public school scholarships are not purely merit based and even the ones that are are very difficult to get.
There's just a lot of randomness to admissions (and this extends to merit based scholarships too).
I recall when I was in high school, the Georgia Tech recruiters were talking about how top applicants can get 'Stamps President's Scholars Program' and were proud to state that one of the students was someone who had to undergo hardships by surviving the terrors in Iraq.
I think it's a great thing that these scholarships cater to excellent students who were able to compete despite all odds, but this story should have been a heads up to high school students that many of these 'merit scholarships' by public schools are not just stats based.
And many of the Bogleheaders here aren't exactly struggling financially.

Anyways, I do agree with OP that unless there's scholarships, most students shouldn't choose a no name private over in-state public.
And unless the in-state options are horrible, students generally shouldn't consider OOS.
And do note that certain fields are not worth the costs financially to pay a huge premium. For instance, if your child wants to be a local high school teacher, then paying an extra 6 figures make no sense from the financials; high school teachers whether from Harvard or an in-state school will earn the same.
At the same time, if your child wants to work in Wall Street, then maybe the extra premium (assuming it's reasonable) might be worth it.
It all depends. There's no clear cut answer.

+ On the matter with scholarships, I do believe there are quite a few LAC known for giving merit based aid.
I know my high school friend's older sister had full ride to Smith College. So don't discount LAC for merit aid when applying; I believe schools like Grinnell, W&L have many merit based scholarships. That said, I've never applied to LACs myself so I could be grossly misinformed.
Last edited by fwellimort on Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:08 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by warner25 »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:40 pmTop 0.05% end up at West Point or Annapolis if military is an end goal...ok, I guess Colorado Springs as well.
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:57 pmI agree, if you want to make the military a career, go to an academy.
As a career officer and product of ROTC, I'll just say "ouch," and I think this is more myth than reality. Looking at the current crop of Army four-star generals, West Point is somewhat over-represented (at 40%, whereas only 25% of active duty lieutenants come from West Point) but the majority received their bachelor's degrees elsewhere:

Princeton University (2x)
North Georgia College
St. John's University
Colorado State University
Rochester Institute of Technology
University of Maryland
Xavier University
Ohio State University
Montana State University
Metropolitan State University of Denver
University of Rhode Island

Of course, I don't know how we define the top 0.05%. What about the guy who tops out as a colonel because he ends up teaching at West Point after completing a master's and PhD while on active duty? The academic profile of the incoming class at West Point is weaker than that of many schools with ROTC.
beyou wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:39 pmNote if one wants to go far in the Navy, after the USNA, next most productive college to generate high ranking officers is a small expensive private engineering college with NROTC and nuclear engineering major. They also have aerospace engineering major that has yielded the head of NASA and astronauts. Generic state school would put one at a disadvantage with certain career choices.
The Navy does appear to be significantly more inbred.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

warner25 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:03 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:40 pmTop 0.05% end up at West Point or Annapolis if military is an end goal...ok, I guess Colorado Springs as well.
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:57 pmI agree, if you want to make the military a career, go to an academy.
As a career officer and product of ROTC, I'll just say "ouch," and I think this is more myth than reality. Looking at the current crop of Army four-star generals, West Point is somewhat over-represented (at 40%, whereas only 25% of active duty lieutenants come from West Point) but the majority received their bachelor's degrees elsewhere:

Princeton University (2x)
North Georgia College
St. John's University
Colorado State University
Rochester Institute of Technology
University of Maryland
Xavier University
Ohio State University
Montana State University
Metropolitan State University of Denver
University of Rhode Island

Of course, I don't know how we define the top 0.05%. What about the guy who tops out as a colonel because he ends up teaching at West Point after completing a master's and PhD while on active duty? The academic profile of the incoming class at West Point is weaker than that of many schools with ROTC.
beyou wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:39 pmNote if one wants to go far in the Navy, after the USNA, next most productive college to generate high ranking officers is a small expensive private engineering college with NROTC and nuclear engineering major. They also have aerospace engineering major that has yielded the head of NASA and astronauts. Generic state school would put one at a disadvantage with certain career choices.
The Navy does appear to be significantly more inbred.
Thank you for your service. I was speaking based on what my good buddy who was active duty Navy for many years told me. It sounds like the Army is different.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by grogu »

anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm For example, if you go to an elite law school your undergrad is a lot less important.
Of course, your undergrad school reputation is a significant factor in getting admitted into an elite law school. I am not necessarily disagreeing with the thesis of this thread, but attending a higher-ranked undergrad can improve the odds of attending a better law school (which in turn makes things easier in getting a better law firm job). And yes, I realize someone who aces his LSATs and graduates at the top of his lower-ranked undergrad can still get into an elite law school, but if the cost is not prohibitive, a better ranked undergrad can help your chances.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

grogu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:40 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm For example, if you go to an elite law school your undergrad is a lot less important.
Of course, your undergrad school reputation is a significant factor in getting admitted into an elite law school. I am not necessarily disagreeing with the thesis of this thread, but attending a higher-ranked undergrad can improve the odds of attending a better law school (which in turn makes things easier in getting a better law firm job). And yes, I realize someone who aces his LSATs and graduates at the top of his lower-ranked undergrad can still get into an elite law school, but if the cost is not prohibitive, a better ranked undergrad can help your chances.
It is surprising how important the LSAT is... but there are much easier way to make money than being a lawyer (saying this as a lawyer).
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by HIMcDunnough »

fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:00 pm
I think some people here are misinformed about how difficult it is to get scholarships at in-state flagships today.
Sometimes it's not about academics. Maybe your family earns 'too much' to apply to these scholarships (or at least be competitive relative to other less fortunate candidates).
Maybe your family background is not diverse enough.
A lot of public school scholarships are not purely merit based and even the ones that are are very difficult to get.
There's just a lot of randomness to admissions (and this extends to merit based scholarships too).
I recall when I was in high school, the Georgia Tech recruiters were talking about how top applicants can get 'Stamps President's Scholars Program' and were proud to state that one of the students was someone who had to undergo hardships by surviving the terrors in Iraq.
I think it's a great thing that these scholarships cater to excellent students who were able to compete despite all odds, but this story should have been a heads up to high school students that many of these 'merit scholarships' by public schools are not just stats based.
And many of the Bogleheaders here aren't exactly struggling financially.

Anyways, I do agree with OP that unless there's scholarships, most students shouldn't choose a no name private over in-state public.
And unless the in-state options are horrible, students generally shouldn't consider OOS.
And do note that certain fields are not worth the costs financially to pay a huge premium. For instance, if your child wants to be a local high school teacher, then paying an extra 6 figures make no sense from the financials; high school teachers whether from Harvard or an in-state school will earn the same.
At the same time, if your child wants to work in Wall Street, then maybe the extra premium (assuming it's reasonable) might be worth it.
It all depends. There's no clear cut answer.

+ On the matter with scholarships, I do believe there are quite a few LAC known for giving merit based aid.
I know my high school friend's older sister had full ride to Smith College. So don't discount LAC for merit aid when applying; I believe schools like Grinnell, W&L have many merit based scholarships. That said, I've never applied to LACs myself so I could be grossly misinformed.
It's a sample size of 1, but Vulcan's spreadsheet is consistent with what I was talking about. Assuming the student wouldn't be living at home in the in-state flagship option, the $15,000 out of pocket cost is basically just room and board. Since a place to live and food to eat are things the student is going to have to pay for wherever he or she goes, and even if he or she isn't in school, I count full tuition as "something close" to a full ride.

The UVAs and Michigans of the world aren't handing out full rides, but Western Michigan might be.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by GreendaleCC »

warner25 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:03 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:40 pmTop 0.05% end up at West Point or Annapolis if military is an end goal...ok, I guess Colorado Springs as well.
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:57 pmI agree, if you want to make the military a career, go to an academy.
As a career officer and product of ROTC, I'll just say "ouch," and I think this is more myth than reality. Looking at the current crop of Army four-star generals, West Point is somewhat over-represented (at 40%, whereas only 25% of active duty lieutenants come from West Point) but the majority received their bachelor's degrees elsewhere:

Princeton University (2x)
North Georgia College
St. John's University
Colorado State University
Rochester Institute of Technology
University of Maryland
Xavier University
Ohio State University
Montana State University
Metropolitan State University of Denver
University of Rhode Island

Of course, I don't know how we define the top 0.05%. What about the guy who tops out as a colonel because he ends up teaching at West Point after completing a master's and PhD while on active duty? The academic profile of the incoming class at West Point is weaker than that of many schools with ROTC.
beyou wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:39 pmNote if one wants to go far in the Navy, after the USNA, next most productive college to generate high ranking officers is a small expensive private engineering college with NROTC and nuclear engineering major. They also have aerospace engineering major that has yielded the head of NASA and astronauts. Generic state school would put one at a disadvantage with certain career choices.
The Navy does appear to be significantly more inbred.
It’s also worth noting that ROTC grads actually have fun in college.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by FoolStreet »

anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:00 pm
grogu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:40 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm For example, if you go to an elite law school your undergrad is a lot less important.
Of course, your undergrad school reputation is a significant factor in getting admitted into an elite law school. I am not necessarily disagreeing with the thesis of this thread, but attending a higher-ranked undergrad can improve the odds of attending a better law school (which in turn makes things easier in getting a better law firm job). And yes, I realize someone who aces his LSATs and graduates at the top of his lower-ranked undergrad can still get into an elite law school, but if the cost is not prohibitive, a better ranked undergrad can help your chances.
It is surprising how important the LSAT is... but there are much easier way to make money than being a lawyer (saying this as a lawyer).
I recently did some plumbing work at my house and when the bill came in, I was shocked. I told the plumber, these rates are crazy -- I don't even charge this much as a lawyer. He said, "I know. I didn't even charge this much when I was a lawyer, either, which is why I became a plumber!"

badump-tiss

Funny joke, but kinda appropriate in a meta way on this thread...
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

FoolStreet wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:24 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:00 pm
grogu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:40 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm For example, if you go to an elite law school your undergrad is a lot less important.
Of course, your undergrad school reputation is a significant factor in getting admitted into an elite law school. I am not necessarily disagreeing with the thesis of this thread, but attending a higher-ranked undergrad can improve the odds of attending a better law school (which in turn makes things easier in getting a better law firm job). And yes, I realize someone who aces his LSATs and graduates at the top of his lower-ranked undergrad can still get into an elite law school, but if the cost is not prohibitive, a better ranked undergrad can help your chances.
It is surprising how important the LSAT is... but there are much easier way to make money than being a lawyer (saying this as a lawyer).
I recently did some plumbing work at my house and when the bill came in, I was shocked. I told the plumber, these rates are crazy -- I don't even charge this much as a lawyer. He said, "I know. I didn't even charge this much when I was a lawyer, either, which is why I became a plumber!"

badump-tiss

Funny joke, but kinda appropriate in a meta way on this thread...
Haha, that is a good one. Maybe there is more to college than ROI...
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by oldfort »

anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm Outside of Ivy (or Ivy level) schools, I think choosing the in-state flagship makes the most sense. Why pay an Ivy league price tag for a mediocre education from a lesser private school?
This mentality annoys me, when people talk as if there's 10 colleges in the country where you can get a good education and your education is going to be mediocre everywhere else. I'll concede HYPMS can open doors in some selective career fields.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by oldfort »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:41 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.

Also, $100k is a chump change in some fields.
Some of my friends almost saved that much in the first two years out of college working at Google.
+1.

$100k vs $300k is chump change when you consider lifetime earnings in the mid seven figures.

The college experience is much more important.
I went to UCLA for undergrad (finished with zero debt and it costed my mom $0), can somebody use actual words to explain what this magical "college experience" is? It was my "dream school" because I ate up whatever my high school counselors were feeding (neither of my birth parents or my older brother graduated high school, so they couldn't help), I left with a degree but not otherwise some different person because of the environment. I turned down Ivy grad school opportunities because the money worked out better going elsewhere and I truly had better "experiences" (liked the area, environment, professors, my classmates, research opportunities...) at both of my grad schools (neither with same global cache as UCLA) than I did in undergrad.

Considering the field that I decided to study (exercise physiology/health sciences), whether I went to HYPMS or local U probably had little relevance in my opportunities and how much I ended up making, and I'm doing pretty well. It can obviously make a difference depending on the field, but I think those fields are fewer than many are willing to acknowledge. It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
The “general population” doesn’t have a college degree. Only 30% of adults do.

Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
This is wrong unless you get a graduate/professional degree. Median career earnings for a bachelor’s degree holder are $1.28 million in 2018 dollars. The typical, or median, bachelor’s degree graduate earns about $68,000 (in 2018 dollars) at career peak (which occurs at year 30)
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front ... lifetimes/
Last edited by oldfort on Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

oldfort wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:05 am
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm Outside of Ivy (or Ivy level) schools, I think choosing the in-state flagship makes the most sense. Why pay an Ivy league price tag for a mediocre education from a lesser private school?
This mentality annoys me, when people talk as if there's 10 colleges in the country where you can get a good education and your education is going to be mediocre everywhere else. I'll concede HYPMS can open doors in some selective career fields.
I think there are more than 10 great undergraduate schools. There are many that I would consider "Ivy level". I dislike how people often imply private undergrad schools are some how inherently better than than significantly less expensive state flagship schools. It might be worth it to pay full tuition for a top liberal arts college, but maybe it's not worth it to pay full tuition for a significantly inferior liberal arts college over a state flagship university.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by dziuniek »

AnEngineer wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:26 am Be careful about assuming 2 years CC + 2 years state. It's easy to end up taking more than 4 years. I met one student who succumbed to particularly bad advice at the CC and was looking at 3+3.
This is similar to my own scenario, though the one you mention is better than mine. :twisted:

I was a horrible high school student so community college was the only real choice. I did a 3 year associate of science program which resulted in a hospital job placement upon graduation. (surgical technology- aka scrub).

I still had horrible grades in community college.

I ended up going through the adult ducation program at the flagship in state post community college. Got 2 As over the summer and was admitted into business school in the Fall.

Gradauted BS Accounting with a 3.25 or so. Not great, but so much better than what I did prior. Highschool was maybe 2.3, community college 2.5.

I paid for all those mistakes with a late start and more loans than it would otherwise take.

3 years community college. AS. (worked full time)
3.5 years state flagship. BS. Accounting. (worked full time)

So yeah... that didn't work out so great ;)
(but it was all caused by my own stupidity)

Then MBA(3.5), MS Accounting(3.75).... and the rest is history.
I have more credits than most, haha.

Still I was 30 with a negative net worth or so. Yay.
Get rich or die tryin'
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Big Dog »

grogu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:40 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm For example, if you go to an elite law school your undergrad is a lot less important.
Of course, your undergrad school reputation is a significant factor in getting admitted into an elite law school. I am not necessarily disagreeing with the thesis of this thread, but attending a higher-ranked undergrad can improve the odds of attending a better law school (which in turn makes things easier in getting a better law firm job). And yes, I realize someone who aces his LSATs and graduates at the top of his lower-ranked undergrad can still get into an elite law school, but if the cost is not prohibitive, a better ranked undergrad can help your chances.
While undergrad prestige is valuable for med school, it is barely noticed for top law school admission, which is based primarily on GPA+LSAT. At best undergrad college can be a tie-breaker, but a 3.9/173+ has an extremely high change of admission to HLS from any undergrad college. (The smaller YLS & SLS require much more for admission.)
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by ModifiedDuration »

Big Dog wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:36 am
While undergrad prestige is valuable for med school, it is barely noticed for top law school admission, which is based primarily on GPA+LSAT. At best undergrad college can be a tie-breaker, but a 3.9/173+ has an extremely high change of admission to HLS from any undergrad college. (The smaller YLS & SLS require much more for admission.)
You nailed it on law school admissions.

My only comment would be that the “much more” needed for admission to Yale Law School and Stanford Law School aren’t necessarily higher grades and LSATs, but now gets into the more subjective areas, like work experience, essays, and letters of recommendation (and luck in which Yale Law School faculty members review your application).

But, up to Harvard Law School, you are correct that it is primarily a GPA/LSAT process and the difference between a 3.75/168 and a 3.85/172 is very substantial as far as admission to a Top 14 School goes (so, crazy as it sounds, students who go to a college that have a top grade of A+, rather than A, are at an advantage in the law school admission process, as the A+ counts as a 4.33 with the Law School Credential Assembly Service).
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:41 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.

Also, $100k is a chump change in some fields.
Some of my friends almost saved that much in the first two years out of college working at Google.
+1.

$100k vs $300k is chump change when you consider lifetime earnings in the mid seven figures.

The college experience is much more important.
I went to UCLA for undergrad (finished with zero debt and it costed my mom $0), can somebody use actual words to explain what this magical "college experience" is? It was my "dream school" because I ate up whatever my high school counselors were feeding (neither of my birth parents or my older brother graduated high school, so they couldn't help), I left with a degree but not otherwise some different person because of the environment. I turned down Ivy grad school opportunities because the money worked out better going elsewhere and I truly had better "experiences" (liked the area, environment, professors, my classmates, research opportunities...) at both of my grad schools (neither with same global cache as UCLA) than I did in undergrad.

Considering the field that I decided to study (exercise physiology/health sciences), whether I went to HYPMS or local U probably had little relevance in my opportunities and how much I ended up making, and I'm doing pretty well. It can obviously make a difference depending on the field, but I think those fields are fewer than many are willing to acknowledge. It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
The “general population” doesn’t have a college degree. Only 30% of adults do.

Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
Data source for your claim that all HYPMS average grads earn at least $5M over lifetime?

It’s not what you earn, it’s what you keep. Wealth is not determined by your income. Something to keep in mind, guess they don’t teach that in college. :oops:
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by oldfort »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:57 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:30 pm
stoptothink wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:27 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:41 pm
fwellimort wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:39 pm No amount of money can repeat 4 years being surrounded by highly motivated peers.

Also, $100k is a chump change in some fields.
Some of my friends almost saved that much in the first two years out of college working at Google.
+1.

$100k vs $300k is chump change when you consider lifetime earnings in the mid seven figures.

The college experience is much more important.
I went to UCLA for undergrad (finished with zero debt and it costed my mom $0), can somebody use actual words to explain what this magical "college experience" is? It was my "dream school" because I ate up whatever my high school counselors were feeding (neither of my birth parents or my older brother graduated high school, so they couldn't help), I left with a degree but not otherwise some different person because of the environment. I turned down Ivy grad school opportunities because the money worked out better going elsewhere and I truly had better "experiences" (liked the area, environment, professors, my classmates, research opportunities...) at both of my grad schools (neither with same global cache as UCLA) than I did in undergrad.

Considering the field that I decided to study (exercise physiology/health sciences), whether I went to HYPMS or local U probably had little relevance in my opportunities and how much I ended up making, and I'm doing pretty well. It can obviously make a difference depending on the field, but I think those fields are fewer than many are willing to acknowledge. It's really out of touch to suggest that $200k is "chump change" for the general population; lifetime earnings in mid-7-figures isn't just the norm, even for HYPMS grads.
The “general population” doesn’t have a college degree. Only 30% of adults do.

Lifetime earnings for an average college graduate is $3M.

HYPMS grads are definitely getting at least $5M
If you qualified for HYPMS then you aren't an average college student to begin with. There is a famous study that shows this: the aforementioned Dale and Krueger.
Harvard wasn't part of the study and neither was MIT.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by oldfort »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:33 pm
Vulcan wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:57 pm
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm Outside of Ivy (or Ivy level) schools, I think choosing the in-state flagship makes the most sense. Why pay an Ivy league price tag for a mediocre education from a lesser private school? Advanced degrees, in particular professional degrees, completely change the importance of undergrad. For example, if you go to an elite law school your undergrad is a lot less important.
I would agree that few schools are worth what they charge.

However, benefits of an undegrdaduate degree from an elite institution persist even after getting an elite graduate degree, if this research from Vanderbilt is to be believed.

Catching Up Is Hard to Do: Undergraduate Prestige, Elite Graduate Programs, and the Earnings Premium

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2473238
A commonly held perception is that an elite graduate degree can “scrub” a less prestigious but less costly undergraduate degree. Using data from the National Survey of College Graduates from 2003 through 2017, this paper examines the relationship between the status of undergraduate degrees and earnings among those with elite post-baccalaureate degrees. Few graduates of nonselective institutions earn post-baccalaureate degrees from elite institutions, and even when they do, undergraduate institutional prestige continues to be positively related to earnings overall as well as among those with specific post-baccalaureate degrees including business, law, medicine, and doctoral. Among those who earn a graduate degree from an elite institution, the present value of the earnings advantage to having both an undergraduate and a graduate degree from an elite institution generally greatly exceeds any likely cost advantage from attending a less prestigious undergraduate institution.
And that's before we even get into intanginbles.
There are intangibles from HYPSM that have value outside of this analysis.

Now it's weird that the author references Dale and Krueger in a footnote stating:

"Dale and Krueger find that, except for low income students, earnings are not affected by selectivity of undergraduate college once individual characteristics are accounted for. However, their research is based on data from students at a limited number of highly selective colleges and universities. This means that those students who were admitted to more selective schools than they ultimately entered were still attendees (and usually graduates) of highly selective institutions, and does not mean that the same individual would have been equally successful had they instead attended a nonselective college."

And then hand waved it away by claiming that these were elite schools anyway even though they were buried into the Tier 3 schools being compared against "elite" Tier 1 institutions.

It is clear that he is not controlling for similarly qualified students when he states:

"First, “scrubbing” a less prestigious undergraduate degree is rare—students who attend nonselective institutions for their bachelor’s degrees rarely move up to an elite graduate or professional school for a post-baccalaureate degree."

This means he's including ALL candidates and not just the ones that would have qualified for elite, highly selective, universities or his results would look more like Dale and Krueger. He's not controlling for student quality but instead using his tier classification as a stand in.

Take UVA or GT as examples. Highly selective Public Research I but in the same Tier 3 category as University of Utah or Arizona State. That the outcomes for the total population of Tier 3, of which few likely do end up in elite graduate programs is lower than his Tier 1 schools is expected.

But when taken against the better flagships which ARE selective the outcomes aren't going be nearly as pronounced...as seen in Dale and Krueger.

There are STILL advantages to HYPSM even for them but not to the point where going to UVA and then Stanford for grad school is likely to make much difference. Even if it does, certainly that study doesn't prove anything of the sort.
Dale-Krueger have a strange idea of what student quality is. They define it as the most selective school which you apply to, whether you are accepted or rejected.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by afan »

They had to define it that way. Their goal was isolating the effect of the college a student attended from whatever individual characteristics of the student made them an attractive applicant to a college. Their approach said, in effect, "whatever it may be that elite colleges value in admissions, we will look at students who were admitted and presumably had "it". We will then compare the students who were admitted to the top colleges and attended to other students who were admitted but attended somewhere less prestigious"

As for financial aid- although the elite privates are need blind for admissions and need based for aid, that does not mean the aid packages are identical. At the wealthiest schools, like Harvard, a family can have a very high income and still qualify for full financial aid. For some students, Harvard can be cheaper than a full athletic scholarship at a university that offers them.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by trueblueky »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:04 am From another thread IvyGirl shared this article.
Ivygirl wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:32 am A quick search tells me that over 40% of people who go to college don't graduate. How many of those took out student loans, which can't be discharged in bankruptcy, and have no degree to earn the money to pay them back? How many lost years is that, working at low wages for nothing just to pay on a mistake. What if they had followed Mr. Ramsey's common-sense advice instead: https://www.ramseysolutions.com/saving/ ... CNL_180617
Rather than get caught up with that thread I think this deserves another look.

Oneal writes:

"When it comes to choosing a school, the only relevant factor is if you can pay for it without student loans."

I would change it to:

"When it comes to choosing a school, the primary factor is out of pocket cost."

Say you're like me, rising senior and looking at school. There are lots of threads here on whether parents should pay, how to save, is Harvard worth it, etc but in my quick search I didn't see a topic title in terms of strategy or selection criteria in the first few pages of the search results.

In my case we make too much for aid (beyond loans) and he's not getting a full ride anywhere so my assumption is that everything is coming out of the money I've saved. Outside of some place like Harvard with a large endowment and lots of financial aid options this isn't likely too rare for Bogleheads.

Using this random google hit on the costs of college here's my assessment:

https://www.valuepenguin.com/student-lo ... of-college

Scenario 1 - 4 years private, live on campus = $203,600
Scenario 2 - 4 years flagship state school - in state, live on campus = $101,160
Scenario 3 - 2 years community college (live at home) + 2 years in-state university (live on campus) = $18,360 + 50,580 = $68,940
Scenario 4 - 2 years community college + 2 years state school (live at home all 4 years) = $18,360 + 28290 = $47,340

Scenario 5 - 4 years University of Michigan = $273,980 (An elite out of state public)
https://admissions.umich.edu/costs-aid/costs

If you can swing Scenario 4 because you happen to live near your flagship great. I'll assume many cannot so Scenario 3 is likely the cheapest reasonable option.

Cost deltas:

Scenario 3 vs 1: $134,660
Scenario 3 vs 2: $32,220
Scenario 3 vs 5: $205,040

Invested in VTI between 2000 and 2020:

Scenario 3 vs 1: $709,302
Scenario 3 vs 2: $169,714
Scenario 3 vs 5: $1,080,019

(I used PV)

So theoretically, assuming you had saved $273,980 for college and could invest the cost difference between community college + state university vs one of the best public university in the US as out of state in VTI, your kid could have a million bucks extra before age 40.

Now we are fortunate enough to be able to afford option 2 AND save money them in the future but we understand that 4 years on campus is a luxury experience we can afford. We happen to be lucky enough to be able to do option 4 if we wanted so for us the cost delta is $53,820 or $283,489 after 20 years. Which is a nice sum to be honest...

This quick and dirty analysis does highlight that out of pocket cost, at least for folks that prioritize saving and investing, should be the primary driver in college selection.

It is also probably not unreasonable to save for Scenario 3 and go though this with your kids and tell them anything more than that they would have to come up with and no, you're not going to agree to a loan. They'll have to earn a scholarship or cashflow the delta with a part time job if they want the option to live on campus the first two years.
Scenario 2.1, 3.1, 4.1 -- take dual enrollment courses while in high school (often in conjunction with the local CC). Take and pass AP courses in high school.

Our children graduated from college in three years because each started with college credits. (Not from overload, which I rarely recommend.)
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by New Providence »

chazas wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:19 am Best for you, not necessarily for your kids. This kind of pure cost/benefit analysis of college makes me queasy.

The difference for the right kid between going to two years community college and then a local school, vs. an Ivy, is incalculable, and it will follow them the rest of their lives. It’s obviously a privilege and not everyone can afford it but always prioritizing savings vs. your kids’ experience seems wonky to me.
I fully agree.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Normchad »

oldfort wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:05 am
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm Outside of Ivy (or Ivy level) schools, I think choosing the in-state flagship makes the most sense. Why pay an Ivy league price tag for a mediocre education from a lesser private school?
This mentality annoys me, when people talk as if there's 10 colleges in the country where you can get a good education and your education is going to be mediocre everywhere else. I'll concede HYPMS can open doors in some selective career fields.
It is annoying. Confession time. I went to University of Michigan, and got a computer engineering degree. I’ve been very successful in life. My UM education was mediocre. It’s got a great reputation, but the things that account for that reputation, aren’t the things that benefit an undergrad student education. It’s almost the opposite. Most professors don’t want to teach at all, they are there to do their research.

I guess my point is, whatever that dream school is that your kid has their eye on, it very well might not live up to their expectations. They might come out if it with a mediocre expectation. Or another way, in my opinion, the flagship university in your state is probably just as good as the university of Michigan. I’m sure it offers opportunities to bright, engaged students, etc.

It doesn’t matter where you go, it matters what you do.
stoptothink
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by stoptothink »

Normchad wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:07 pm
oldfort wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:05 am
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm Outside of Ivy (or Ivy level) schools, I think choosing the in-state flagship makes the most sense. Why pay an Ivy league price tag for a mediocre education from a lesser private school?
This mentality annoys me, when people talk as if there's 10 colleges in the country where you can get a good education and your education is going to be mediocre everywhere else. I'll concede HYPMS can open doors in some selective career fields.
It is annoying. Confession time. I went to University of Michigan, and got a computer engineering degree. I’ve been very successful in life. My UM education was mediocre. It’s got a great reputation, but the things that account for that reputation, aren’t the things that benefit an undergrad student education. It’s almost the opposite. Most professors don’t want to teach at all, they are there to do their research.

I guess my point is, whatever that dream school is that your kid has their eye on, it very well might not live up to their expectations. They might come out if it with a mediocre expectation. Or another way, in my opinion, the flagship university in your state is probably just as good as the university of Michigan. I’m sure it offers opportunities to bright, engaged students, etc.

It doesn’t matter where you go, it matters what you do.
Exact same experience at UCLA.
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nigel_ht
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

New Providence wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:54 pm
chazas wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:19 am Best for you, not necessarily for your kids. This kind of pure cost/benefit analysis of college makes me queasy.

The difference for the right kid between going to two years community college and then a local school, vs. an Ivy, is incalculable, and it will follow them the rest of their lives. It’s obviously a privilege and not everyone can afford it but always prioritizing savings vs. your kids’ experience seems wonky to me.
I fully agree.
By failing to read.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by oldfort »

afan wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:43 pm They had to define it that way. Their goal was isolating the effect of the college a student attended from whatever individual characteristics of the student made them an attractive applicant to a college. Their approach said, in effect, "whatever it may be that elite colleges value in admissions, we will look at students who were admitted and presumably had "it". We will then compare the students who were admitted to the top colleges and attended to other students who were admitted but attended somewhere less prestigious"
No, this isn't what the 2011 study found. The 2011 study found people who applied to elite colleges and were rejected did as well as people who were accepted or went there. What mattered was whether you applied to Yale or Princeton, not whether they admitted you.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by Tingting1013 »

stoptothink wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:23 pm
Normchad wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:07 pm
oldfort wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:05 am
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm Outside of Ivy (or Ivy level) schools, I think choosing the in-state flagship makes the most sense. Why pay an Ivy league price tag for a mediocre education from a lesser private school?
This mentality annoys me, when people talk as if there's 10 colleges in the country where you can get a good education and your education is going to be mediocre everywhere else. I'll concede HYPMS can open doors in some selective career fields.
It is annoying. Confession time. I went to University of Michigan, and got a computer engineering degree. I’ve been very successful in life. My UM education was mediocre. It’s got a great reputation, but the things that account for that reputation, aren’t the things that benefit an undergrad student education. It’s almost the opposite. Most professors don’t want to teach at all, they are there to do their research.

I guess my point is, whatever that dream school is that your kid has their eye on, it very well might not live up to their expectations. They might come out if it with a mediocre expectation. Or another way, in my opinion, the flagship university in your state is probably just as good as the university of Michigan. I’m sure it offers opportunities to bright, engaged students, etc.

It doesn’t matter where you go, it matters what you do.
Exact same experience at UCLA.
And yet you still scoff at paying for the “college experience”?
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

ModifiedDuration wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:15 am
Big Dog wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:36 am
While undergrad prestige is valuable for med school, it is barely noticed for top law school admission, which is based primarily on GPA+LSAT. At best undergrad college can be a tie-breaker, but a 3.9/173+ has an extremely high change of admission to HLS from any undergrad college. (The smaller YLS & SLS require much more for admission.)
You nailed it on law school admissions.

My only comment would be that the “much more” needed for admission to Yale Law School and Stanford Law School aren’t necessarily higher grades and LSATs, but now gets into the more subjective areas, like work experience, essays, and letters of recommendation (and luck in which Yale Law School faculty members review your application).

But, up to Harvard Law School, you are correct that it is primarily a GPA/LSAT process and the difference between a 3.75/168 and a 3.85/172 is very substantial as far as admission to a Top 14 School goes (so, crazy as it sounds, students who go to a college that have a top grade of A+, rather than A, are at an advantage in the law school admission process, as the A+ counts as a 4.33 with the Law School Credential Assembly Service).
I tell anyone that will listen that there are so many less stressful ways to make money than being a lawyer. No one ever listens to me (former biglaw associate turned megacorp in-house lawyer). But if you get into the right law school, it is not hard to get a high paying job right out of law school, you just might hate your life and regret it though (a pact with the devil basically). Some people like biglaw though, allegedly.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by stoptothink »

Tingting1013 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:24 pm
stoptothink wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:23 pm
Normchad wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:07 pm
oldfort wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:05 am
anon_investor wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:49 pm Outside of Ivy (or Ivy level) schools, I think choosing the in-state flagship makes the most sense. Why pay an Ivy league price tag for a mediocre education from a lesser private school?
This mentality annoys me, when people talk as if there's 10 colleges in the country where you can get a good education and your education is going to be mediocre everywhere else. I'll concede HYPMS can open doors in some selective career fields.
It is annoying. Confession time. I went to University of Michigan, and got a computer engineering degree. I’ve been very successful in life. My UM education was mediocre. It’s got a great reputation, but the things that account for that reputation, aren’t the things that benefit an undergrad student education. It’s almost the opposite. Most professors don’t want to teach at all, they are there to do their research.

I guess my point is, whatever that dream school is that your kid has their eye on, it very well might not live up to their expectations. They might come out if it with a mediocre expectation. Or another way, in my opinion, the flagship university in your state is probably just as good as the university of Michigan. I’m sure it offers opportunities to bright, engaged students, etc.

It doesn’t matter where you go, it matters what you do.
Exact same experience at UCLA.
And yet you still scoff at paying for the “college experience”?
I was on a nearly full tuition merit scholarship which allowed me to cover all costs by working. My mom's contribution was $0 and I graduated with no debt. Had I (or my mom) had to pay a significant amount out of pocket for that "experience" I would have made a huge mistake because I had other options. I had the expectation that it was some amazing, life-changing environment, and it simply wasn't. I got a degree, it did not otherwise change who I was. There is nothing to suggest (to me) that my career outcomes would have been inferior or my life overall "less" had I gone to an institution with less prestige. I had the same "experience" at both of my grad schools, except by then I wasn't some naive 16yr-old with the belief that some academic environment would magically make me a better person. If my kids get a significant scholarship to UCLA then I'm happy for them, but I'm not paying a premium for them to attend over even Utah Valley University (my local U and where my wife graduated from) because of some indescribable "college experience". If they get into HYPMS, that's a different discussion...
Last edited by stoptothink on Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by ModifiedDuration »

anon_investor wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:35 pm
I tell anyone that will listen that there are so many less stressful ways to make money than being a lawyer. No one ever listens to me (former biglaw associate turned megacorp in-house lawyer). But if you get into the right law school, it is not hard to get a high paying job right out of law school, you just might hate your life and regret it though (a pact with the devil basically). Some people like biglaw though, allegedly.
Well, my daughter has no interest in Big Law and its $190,000 starting salary. She will do a Public Interest Fellowship upon graduation and then has a clerkship with a Federal judge lined up.

Most of her friends are doing clerkships, public interest, joining the Justice Department, or becoming a public defender.

However, one of her good friends is going the Big Law route, though (I suspect to pay down his law school loans). When I said that he was going to hate it, she responded, “I know.”
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by anon_investor »

ModifiedDuration wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:45 pm
anon_investor wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:35 pm
I tell anyone that will listen that there are so many less stressful ways to make money than being a lawyer. No one ever listens to me (former biglaw associate turned megacorp in-house lawyer). But if you get into the right law school, it is not hard to get a high paying job right out of law school, you just might hate your life and regret it though (a pact with the devil basically). Some people like biglaw though, allegedly.
Well, my daughter has no interest in Big Law and its $190,000 starting salary. She will do a Public Interest Fellowship upon graduation and then has a clerkship with a Federal judge lined up.

Most of her friends are doing clerkships, public interest, joining the Justice Department, or becoming a public defender.

However, one of her good friends is going the Big Law route, though (I suspect to pay down his law school loans). When I said that he was going to hate it, she responded, “I know.”
Congrats, Federal clerkships are a big deal. You should be very proud!

If someone wants to be a lawyer, then great go to law school. If someone wants to make a lot of money, there are easier and less stressful ways to make lots of money than being a lawyer in biglaw. That being said, if I did not go biglaw, I would not have a cushing megacorp in-house lawyer job now, so I guess it was worth it for me. But I had a lot of friends and colleagues burn out, and they are no longer lawyers.

The unfortunate reality of law school (this applies to undergrad as well), is there are a lot of mediocre schools and that cost just as much as the top elite schools but have terrible job prospects. Taking out a 6 figure amount in student loans (or having your parents pay a 6 figure amount in tuition/costs) to go to a mediocre school with mediocre job prospects seems like a bad idea to me.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by nigel_ht »

oldfort wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:04 pm
Dale-Krueger have a strange idea of what student quality is. They define it as the most selective school which you apply to, whether you are accepted or rejected.
Excepts from the 2011 paper:

"While the average SAT score for colleges in the C&B dataset ranged from approximately 800 to over 1300, most of the C&B schools were highly selective. The majority of C&B colleges fell into one of the top two Barron’s categories (Most Competitive or Highly Competitive; see Appendix Table 1), and had an average SAT score of greater than 1175. The high selectivity of the colleges within the C&B database make it particularly well-suited for this analysis, because the majority of students that attend selective colleges submit multiple applications, which is necessary for our identification strategy."

"The students in the 1976 cohort had an average SAT scores of 1160, and an average high school grade point average of 3.6. (Note that for ease of interpretation, in our tables and regression analysis, we divide our measures of school SAT score and student SAT score by 100). Similarly, for the 1989 cohort, the average student SAT score was over 1200, and the average GPA was 3.6."

So the students studied were generally above average to begin with. Not quite elite standards for the average student but above the norm...although my recollection is that scores were lower back then.

"Nearly two-thirds of the 1976 cohort and 71 percent of the 1989 cohort submitted at least one additional application (in addition to the school they attended). For both cohorts, of those students submitting at least one additional application, over half applied to a school with a higher average SAT score than that of the college they attended, and nearly 90 percent of students were accepted to at least one additional school. Of those accepted to more than one school, about 35 percent were accepted to a more selective school than the one they ended up attending."

So while I'm not a huge fan of this study the data does support the conclusion that the students that were selected to a more selective school but choose instead to go to one that was less selective did about as well as the average of those that went to the more selective school.

How well they would have done had they gone to the selective school isn't possible to determine but this suffices to show that the student generally matters more than the school except for disadvantaged minorities that got a boost from going to the more selective schools.

HYPMS are a step above the those studied and my belief is that HYPMS still represents a good value for the high performing student given that the cost isn't dramatically different than pseudo-elite universities.
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Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Post by oldfort »

nigel_ht wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:43 pm
oldfort wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:04 pm
Dale-Krueger have a strange idea of what student quality is. They define it as the most selective school which you apply to, whether you are accepted or rejected.
Excepts from the 2011 paper:

"While the average SAT score for colleges in the C&B dataset ranged from approximately 800 to over 1300, most of the C&B schools were highly selective. The majority of C&B colleges fell into one of the top two Barron’s categories (Most Competitive or Highly Competitive; see Appendix Table 1), and had an average SAT score of greater than 1175. The high selectivity of the colleges within the C&B database make it particularly well-suited for this analysis, because the majority of students that attend selective colleges submit multiple applications, which is necessary for our identification strategy."

"The students in the 1976 cohort had an average SAT scores of 1160, and an average high school grade point average of 3.6. (Note that for ease of interpretation, in our tables and regression analysis, we divide our measures of school SAT score and student SAT score by 100). Similarly, for the 1989 cohort, the average student SAT score was over 1200, and the average GPA was 3.6."

So the students studied were generally above average to begin with. Not quite elite standards for the average student but above the norm...although my recollection is that scores were lower back then.

"Nearly two-thirds of the 1976 cohort and 71 percent of the 1989 cohort submitted at least one additional application (in addition to the school they attended). For both cohorts, of those students submitting at least one additional application, over half applied to a school with a higher average SAT score than that of the college they attended, and nearly 90 percent of students were accepted to at least one additional school. Of those accepted to more than one school, about 35 percent were accepted to a more selective school than the one they ended up attending."

So while I'm not a huge fan of this study the data does support the conclusion that the students that were selected to a more selective school but choose instead to go to one that was less selective did about as well as the average of those that went to the more selective school.

How well they would have done had they gone to the selective school isn't possible to determine but this suffices to show that the student generally matters more than the school except for disadvantaged minorities that got a boost from going to the more selective schools.

HYPMS are a step above the those studied and my belief is that HYPMS still represents a good value for the high performing student given that the cost isn't dramatically different than pseudo-elite universities.
Sigh, from the abstract:
However, when we adjust for unobserved student ability by controlling for the average SAT score of the colleges that students applied to, our estimates of the return to college selectivity fall substantially and are generally indistinguishable from zero.
By all means, encourage your kids to apply to Princeton if you think being rejected from Princeton will make them more successful in life. I think this is a strange conclusion.
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