inspector00 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:30 am
While this is fun to look at, does anyone really make decisions based off of it? Unless you're planning to downsize significantly don't you have to live somewhere? If your house is high in value then it's likely the house you're buying is also unless you're planning to move far away.
One commenter mentioned renting instead but if house prices are up then so are rent prices.
I had read somewhere that the number of people looking at zillow was an all time high currently. Ironically, despite the fact that most homeowners aren't going to be selling and then re-buying somewhere else (or selling then renting), I suspect the constant inquiries on zillow artificially makes it seem like a bizillion people are looking for homes to buy. Yes there are a lot right now really looking, but I suspect a huge number are people constantly checking what their bitcoin home is doing giving zillow their record stats. Something the article seemed to overlook.
Increases on zillow, whether fully valid or not (I check on owned multiple SFR properties for giggles) create more FOMO concerns and probably create an economic boost as psychologically people probably feel better about spending money simply because their home (that they are not selling) may have gone up in value. Not comparable to the stock market ups, but something tangible for many people.
The decision that most people should be making is calculating how much their property taxes are going to be increasing. Californian's with their Prop 13 can rest assured their taxes will only go up 2% next year. If one's state doesn't have stop guards like Prop 13, people should be expecting a more significant property tax increase next assessment. I guess a reasonable trade off.
Okay, I'm posting what I feel is real time/accurate data. Area is a very desirable community in Phoenix, all homes were sold in February 2021, and all zillow data is recent that included the recent sale. Homes are all tract homes so no odd outliers:
List Price/ Sold Price / CURRENT Zillow estimate after sale date recorded (values in thousands)
$450 / $465 / $480
$395 / $405 / $415
$619 / $635 / $653
$345 / $350 / $360
$419 / $415 / $424
$399 / $395 / $407
$360 / $360 / $346
$375 / $350 / $360
$600 / $642 / $661
$480 / $500 / $515
$375 / $385 / $397
$320 / $330 / $340
$395 / $405 / $415
Per Zillow, over the last 12 months, homes have gone up about 16% (Zillow predicts about 7.6% increase next 12 months).
There are just over 30 homes pending sales, and just under 10 active listings. There are about 10,000 homes in the community.
Interesting stats on a highly desirable community. As a poster just noted, people just aren't really selling. I mean where are they going to move? Would you want to sell and then find yourself trying to move somewhere else with the uncertainty of being able to actually rebuy a house right now? And what's the motivation? Sell very high and likely buy somewhere else very high?
And why the FOMO panic to buy this minute? Hasn't the stock market done at least that well? People should be FOMO buying the stock market instead?
Last edited by IMO on Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This thread raised my curiosity so I checked yesterday and the zestimate seemed a little bit low. It went up $45k today (up about 5%). Still seems slightly too low based on recent comps but in the right ballpark now.
The real estate market makes no sense, so I don't expect Zillow estimates to make much sense in this market either. The data their model was trained on looks nothing like what we're experiencing now.
Mine went up a little bit, but has been climbing quite a bit since we closed in December 2020.
Purchased for 365. Zestimate at ~380k today. Redfin at ~370k. Not sure I put much weight into it, but Redfin feels pretty accurate given the price I paid 5 months ago.
What I do find interesting is that there are less than 5 4+ bed/2+ bath homes on the market in my town of 100,000. That is crazy low. They are building new houses but they're way more expensive than a pre-existing one. Seems pretty obvious that lack of supply is driving home prices.
Last edited by mnsportsgeek on Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
rockstar wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:16 pm
The real estate market makes no sense, so I don't expect Zillow estimates to make much sense in this market either. The data their model was trained on looks nothing like what we're experiencing now.
Why doesn't it make sense? A person earning $600,000 a year finds themselves stuck in a tiny Manhattan apartment during a pandemic and they realize $1.2 million is worth it to have a place in the country with lots of outdoor space. Sure that place might have been $800K 10 years ago but what does that matter?
bigtex wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:02 pm
I noticed my Zillow home value increased by 20k this past month. Are any of you seeing this too? I wonder if Zillow changed their algorithm or something?
I love zillow but it's so inconsistent. It shows my primary residence to be worth $775k and we are in contract to sell it for almost $1.2m after having 8 offers over $1m. Lol.
On the other hand some of my rentals, in another city, that I think are worth about $125k they have at about $200k. I would take $200k all day long if anybody wants to buy them!
IMO wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:57 pm
And why the FOMO panic to buy this minute? Hasn't the stock market done at least that well? People should be FOMO buying the stock market instead?
Two words....interest rates. People with mortgages typically care more about their monthly payment than the actual sale price. So when interest rates go down, people can get a mortgage for a higher priced house and still have the same payment, and vice versa. It’s clear that with the economy rebounding quickly, interest rates are not going to stay this low forever. So everyone is playing a game of musical chairs, trying to find a place and get the mortgage locked down before interest rates go up.
bigtex wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:02 pm
I noticed my Zillow home value increased by 20k this past month. Are any of you seeing this too? I wonder if Zillow changed their algorithm or something?
Thanks for the post. Yes, in fact mine jumped $36k over the last 30 days. Incredible!
But even with that huge jump, we could absolutely get 20% above asking.
When I first saw this post the other day and looked I didn’t see a change, But today I was curious so I went back to look and I saw it’s up sharply- 11.1%.
Normchad wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:07 pm
A reason to care is that your real estate taxes will probably rise proportionally in the future. Not always true, but often times is the case.
My state provides protection or limits rise to taxable assessment...Higher property tax is not a concern at all.
This paper titled "The Connection Between House Price Appreciation and Property Tax Revenues" by Byron F. Lutz, Federal Reserve Board of Governors,
Research Division...might be of interest.
ABSTRACT
This paper explores two aspects of the connection between property tax revenues and house
prices. First, I estimate the elasticity of property tax revenues with respect to house prices. This
elasticity does not necessarily equal 1 as governments may adjust effective tax rates to offset
changes in property values. Second, I examine the timing of the relationship. Institutional
features of the property tax make it unlikely that changes in house prices will immediately
influence tax revenues. The results suggest that the elasticity eventually equals 0.4 and that it
takes three years for house price changes to impact tax revenues.
There is a 25% difference between Zillow Guestimate and the one on Trulia for our house, Zillow higher. Oops, just looked. It is up again, 8K the past week.
Tamales wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:53 am
....
I may be in the same (seller's) boat later this year, and setting aside that 6 seems like it might be overkill, my impression has been that the realtor will list at whatever the seller wants to list at, even if they think it's a bad idea. And in the current market it almost doesn't matter who you choose as realtor, once it hits the MLS, the offers come in regardless of your realtor's guess or zillow's guess on what it will bring.
If that's not at all what you meant, I'd still be interested in your main screening criteria and why you chose 6.
Thanks.
There is no way that talking to six real estate agents is excessive.
It was a while back but the last time I sold a house I talked to at least six on the telephone them picked three to come to then house to see it them come back later to present their Comparative Market Analysis. I then picked one to list the house. It was a great learning experience for me and they all had different point of view. It was also clear that one of them that had sold a number of houses in my subdivision was encouraging me to list it low for a quick and easy(for her) sale.
Mine went up about 1% a few days ago and another .25% today. The value is actually a little low (5% ?) given what other similar homes nearby have closed for in the past two weeks.
Normchad wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:07 pm
A reason to care is that your real estate taxes will probably rise proportionally in the future. Not always true, but often times is the case.
My state provides protection or limits rise to taxable assessment...Higher property tax is not a concern at all.
This paper titled "The Connection Between House Price Appreciation and Property Tax Revenues" by Byron F. Lutz, Federal Reserve Board of Governors,
Research Division...might be of interest.
ABSTRACT
This paper explores two aspects of the connection between property tax revenues and house
prices. First, I estimate the elasticity of property tax revenues with respect to house prices. This
elasticity does not necessarily equal 1 as governments may adjust effective tax rates to offset
changes in property values. Second, I examine the timing of the relationship. Institutional
features of the property tax make it unlikely that changes in house prices will immediately
influence tax revenues. The results suggest that the elasticity eventually equals 0.4 and that it
takes three years for house price changes to impact tax revenues.
Thanks for the link. This paper states,
...most states have some form of caps and/or limits on property tax rates, tax revenues or taxable
assessments. During periods of rapid house price growth, these limits will prevent assessments
or revenues from growing at the same pace as market values. Michigan provides an example; it
has an assessment growth limit of the lower of five percent or the rate of inflation (Anderson
2006). When the rate of house appreciation exceeds this limit, assessments will rise at a slower
rate than market values and a ‘stock’ of untaxed appreciation will develop...
which pretty much provides a confirmation to my claim.
"Know what you own, and know why you own it." — Peter Lynch
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:17 pm
Zillow is estimating our home to be worth about the same now as it was back in September, but I know that's not accurate. In fact, Zillow's estimate is probably at least 15% lower than our actual market value.
Same here. Zillow has no idea what I have done to the inside of my house. It purely goes by price/sq ft of similar houses sold nearby. We had several houses sell in the neighborhood recently and all of them had the original bathrooms (early 90s), flooring, and other builder grade materials that came with the original house, like hollow core doors, builder grade front doors, painted garage floor, basic landscaping (at best) and single pane windows. Therefore, I am estimating that could sell my house for at least 15% more than the Zillow estimate. Probably more. But I have no intention of selling my nest
Zillow says our home's value in Southwest FL went up 16.2% in the past 30 days. Homes are on the market for only a day or two before selling, if they are decent. A real estate report I read recently for our area said the homes sold in the past 30 days sold for an average of 97% of asking price. We wanted to move up in house size a little but our nerves couldn't deal with the market in our area. We looked at a house that had 10 showings scheduled for the day and it was sold by the end of the day for asking price of $1.3 cash and no inspection or contingencies.
Yes, I noticed this last weekend. My home in Austin went up 30% (about $140,000) last Friday; today it fell about $45,000. Mostly just amused; our local tax appraisals are about to be released and I was wondering if Zillow had somehow gotten access to them. I'm expecting a huge jump.
Nowizard wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:11 am
There is a 25% difference between Zillow Guestimate and the one on Trulia for our house, Zillow higher. Oops, just looked. It is up again, 8K the past week.
Tim
Zillow owns Trulia; I see my home value is exactly the same on both sites, down to the dollar.
I’m in Indianapolis where it’s relatively LCO and no way Zillow is accurate for this market no matter how hot it is. Redfin seems to be spot on though!
Also, as someone who views my entire net worth as a whole portfolio, the amount of equity I have in my home/RE is a factor I use to roughly think about investing vs. debt paydown. I decided to not pay extra mortgage principal on my 700k mortgage when I gained 100k in home equity in a span of 8 months.
SQRT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:14 pm
Up 8% in last 30 days. Paradise Valley Arizona.
Just noticed today that our next door neighbour has listed his place for sale. Listed about 30% over the previous Zillow value. Zillow obviously doesn’t know the condition of the inside of the house. Just size, number of bedrooms and bathrooms. Our neighbour had obviously totally renovated his place based on the listing pics. Will be interesting to see how he does.
Just looked at Zillow again. Now up 10.6% in last 30 days. Graph going almost straight up.
stoptothink wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:43 pm
Mine is up ~5% since I last checked, maybe a month ago. It's actually less than my next-door neighbor just sold for last week, and I'm pretty certain I could get a little more because I have an end unit (townhome) with much nicer finishes and her unit requires some immediate maintenance. Insane, my property value is up ~75% since we bought in January 2016.
Our realtor just texted me again, asking if I know anybody in the neighborhood looking to sell, so I checked again: zestimate is up another ~5% in the 7 days since I made this post.
Up 10% last 30 days and up 65% on Zillow since buying 6 years ago. However, based on recent sales in the subdivision, and what realtors have told my neighbors, I could get double to what I paid for it. But then move where? No desire to move, love it here.
Dave
Last edited by Dave55 on Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Reality always wins, your only job is to get in touch with it." Wilfred Bion
as9 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:05 pm
Ours went up $24k overnight. It’s $70k higher than Redfin now and I think it’s actually closer to current market value.
This $24k increase has now dropped back to a $9k increase, while Redfin has gone up $10k overnight. Now only a $45k gap between the two.
Last edited by as9 on Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In my case it means quite a lot since we own several homes and the place in Arizona will probably be sold in the next few years. Proceeds into our portfolio. So it’s “real”money.
Normchad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:07 pm
Well, I’ll be dipped. I’d previously posted that my zestimate had increased by 50K in the last month. It’s up another 25k today.
I’m almost at the point where if somebody rang my door bell, and offered me that amount, I’d just take it and move to an apartment. That number is completely absurd, but probably realistic.
I felt the same way a couple of weeks ago. Since we expect to move within the next couple of years, one way or another, we decided to have a very experienced realtor come by to get her perspective. Her suggested listing price was about 30% above the zestimate. I think we’ll find out....
Good luck! Please report back with the good news once you know more.
So we did list the house at the price the realtor suggested, and within a few days we had a couple of offers for more than our listing price. We signed a contract at about 40% above the zestimate that was in effect when we first met with the realtor.
Also noteworthy, before we decided to move forward with the listing, we met with a second very experienced realtor (albeit one who is much less focused on our particular “segment” of the market). That second realtor suggested listing for right around the zestimate.
The two realtors had very different approaches to comps.
Normchad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:07 pm
Well, I’ll be dipped. I’d previously posted that my zestimate had increased by 50K in the last month. It’s up another 25k today.
I’m almost at the point where if somebody rang my door bell, and offered me that amount, I’d just take it and move to an apartment. That number is completely absurd, but probably realistic.
I felt the same way a couple of weeks ago. Since we expect to move within the next couple of years, one way or another, we decided to have a very experienced realtor come by to get her perspective. Her suggested listing price was about 30% above the zestimate. I think we’ll find out....
Good luck! Please report back with the good news once you know more.
So we did list the house at the price the realtor suggested, and within a few days we had a couple of offers for more than our listing price. We signed a contract at about 40% above the zestimate that was in effect when we first met with the realtor.
Also noteworthy, before we decided to move forward with the listing, we met with a second very experienced realtor (albeit one who is much less focused on our particular “segment” of the market). That second realtor suggested listing for right around the zestimate.
The two realtors had very different approaches to comps.
Congratulations, that is wonderful! And a great example of why it’s prudent to talk to more than one vendor of any service.
This is a game I play to amuse myself. I track 5 houses in the family. The thing that interests me is the gain/loss of value during the time the home was owned and it's current value.
MIL's condo in CA (coastal)
Owned for 23 years until death
sold in Dec of 2018 for 211.3% profit (avg 9.18% per year)
Increase since Dec 2018 21.77% (avg 8.7% per year)
Brother's previous home in CA (inland)
Owned for 17 years
Sold in Jan of 2021 for 37.05% profit (avg 2.17% per year)
Increase since Jan 4.2% (avg 12.6% per year if sustained)
Brother's New home in SC bought in January 2021 (resort community)
Increase since Jan 1.4% (avg 4.2% per year if sustained)
Our previous home in CA (coastal)
Owned 25 years
Sold in July 2019 for 264.86% profit (avg 10.59% per year)
Increase since July 2019 8% (avg 5.71% per year if sustained)
Our new home in SC bought in Sept 2019 (lakefront)
Increase since Sept 2019 13.9% (avg 9.26% per year if sustained)
This all is meaningless unless the house is sold, but it's still fun. It would be less fun if the numbers trended in the opposite direction, but equally meaningless until sold.
According to Zillow, my house is up only 1.6% over the past 30 days. I think that's because higher end homes are not seeing the buying panic of entry level homes.
willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:46 am
The Zestimate for our home is up about 8% from last month. But I still think that it's about 5% low.
Ours is about 3.7% below what CPI would predict it to be at this point... but since we intend to be here for another 25+ years, I won't complain that it's too low.
"Old value investors never die, they just get their fix from rebalancing." -- vineviz