Tales from this insane real estate market [Home sales]

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unclescrooge
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Re: Austin real estate seems to be slowing down

Post by unclescrooge »

CaptainSaver wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:10 pm
mkc wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:37 am
CaptainSaver wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:18 am Does anyone have a source to see what homes in Austin have recently sold for? Zillow and Redfin don't seem to have it, they just show which homes have recently sold.
That's because it's not required to disclose the selling price in Texas (it's an optional form), and most don't.

You can sometimes find info via the county appraisal district website - I know some of the appraisal districts in NTX provide the "comps" used for annual property assessments and those will have the real estate transaction details of any that have been disclosed. It comes in handy for the annual "property assessment protest" season.

Interesting... I am thinking that the real estate associations are keeping it in house. I know that when you ask an agent for recent sale comps, they are able to find them very quickly. It doesn't seem like the public has access to the same data in these cities. I tried the Redfin technique another user mentioned, but the information that showed up there was very limited. If anyone knows a way to get the same data on recent sales RE agents have access to in Texas please share.
Texas is a non disclosure state.

The real estate agents are probably sharing the sales info amongst themselves.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Atilla wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:29 pm Here's what's happening in our little corner of the world:

We have a shared driveway with 4 other identical stand-alone condos. We are 5 houses on a lot owned in common, so the "comp" when someone sells is accurate.

The most recent sale was 3 years ago for $235,000. Same house goes back on the market on a Thursday in May for $270,000 asking price. By Saturday morning they are not showing the place any more.

Sold for $305,000 in under 48 hours, cash deal, sight unseen by a retiree from Kentucky.

And next year our property taxes will go up another $1,540.00 a year once the assessor catches up with the new selling price.

Every time a neighbor sells, it costs the rest of us big bucks. Feh.
Are those the only houses selling at increased prices? Are you sure of your math? That’s not how it works anywhere I’ve lived.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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unclescrooge
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by unclescrooge »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:10 pm
Atilla wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:29 pm Here's what's happening in our little corner of the world:

We have a shared driveway with 4 other identical stand-alone condos. We are 5 houses on a lot owned in common, so the "comp" when someone sells is accurate.

The most recent sale was 3 years ago for $235,000. Same house goes back on the market on a Thursday in May for $270,000 asking price. By Saturday morning they are not showing the place any more.

Sold for $305,000 in under 48 hours, cash deal, sight unseen by a retiree from Kentucky.

And next year our property taxes will go up another $1,540.00 a year once the assessor catches up with the new selling price.

Every time a neighbor sells, it costs the rest of us big bucks. Feh.
Are those the only houses selling at increased prices? Are you sure of your math? That’s not how it works anywhere I’ve lived.
If that was the case, every year two of you should sell your homes to each otherfor slightly less than FMV. Keep repeating as you pay down the mortgage so you can keep getting a new loan without having to keep coming up with 20% down. :mrgreen:
PhoebeCoco
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by PhoebeCoco »

GmanJeff wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:38 pm A recent phenomenon I encountered at a Toll Bros. development is the solicitation of bids for lot premiums above and beyond the purchase price of the house itself. That is, while the price of the house is fixed, potential buyers are required to offer binding bids for the lot in which they are interested, with no way to know whether anyone else is bidding on the same lot or what any such bids might be. Obviously, if nobody else bids, the potential buyer will be bidding against themselves, and if there are other bids the potential exists to come in too low and to lose the opportunity to buy the house and lot. Toll Bros. sets a starting $ amount for bidding, which begins once a lot is released (they release just one or two at a time) and the sky is the limit.

Have others encountered this at other developments and/or have suggestions for how to best address this short of simply declining to play the game and opting to buy from a different builder?
I visited Del Webb Rancho Mirage and got on their "interested" list. They do this also - every couple of months they send a teaser email saying "Del Webb Rancho Mirage will be releasing new homesites on <date>", then on <date> they release a lot list with starting bids for each lot. You don't know if anyone else is bidding on the lot, and, as you say, potential buyers may just be bidding against themselves. I talked with a sales agent - she said lots are going quickly, but this was before the Coachella Valley hit 125 degrees a few weeks ago. I do wonder if the heat wave is slowing real estate sales in Coachella Valley.

I love their use of the word "homesite"!
poker27
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by poker27 »

It’s crazy how different parts of the country are affected by real estate prices.

My townhouse neighbor listed his property at the end of May. Supposedly received zero offers, and reduced the price by about 8% ($40k). 6 weeks later he is now considering renting because of the little interest. This is after spending $40k to freshen the place up.

Current list price is about 25% more then what they paid six years ago, which sounds super reasonable. I’m jealous of everyone in SF and Austin that are retiring and moving after they sell their homes 😉
manatee2005
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by manatee2005 »

poker27 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:03 pm It’s crazy how different parts of the country are affected by real estate prices.

My townhouse neighbor listed his property at the end of May. Supposedly received zero offers, and reduced the price by about 8% ($40k). 6 weeks later he is now considering renting because of the little interest. This is after spending $40k to freshen the place up.

Current list price is about 25% more then what they paid six years ago, which sounds super reasonable. I’m jealous of everyone in SF and Austin that are retiring and moving after they sell their homes 😉
If you think this is bad, imagine two families, one buys a $60k house in Cleveland, OH in 1960. Another buys a $60 house in Lose Angeles in 1960. What a difference it would make for their kids.
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Ketawa
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Ketawa »

GmanJeff wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:38 pm A recent phenomenon I encountered at a Toll Bros. development is the solicitation of bids for lot premiums above and beyond the purchase price of the house itself. That is, while the price of the house is fixed, potential buyers are required to offer binding bids for the lot in which they are interested, with no way to know whether anyone else is bidding on the same lot or what any such bids might be. Obviously, if nobody else bids, the potential buyer will be bidding against themselves, and if there are other bids the potential exists to come in too low and to lose the opportunity to buy the house and lot. Toll Bros. sets a starting $ amount for bidding, which begins once a lot is released (they release just one or two at a time) and the sky is the limit.

Have others encountered this at other developments and/or have suggestions for how to best address this short of simply declining to play the game and opting to buy from a different builder?
How is this that different from the market for other homes? I submitted a bid on a home, learned that there was another offer, and submitted a second offer with an escalation clause.

What if Toll Bros didn't tell people if there were other offers? They'd be hurting themselves, because people wouldn't know they'd need to follow up with an escalation clause or something similar.
Nate7out
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Nate7out »

We went under contract for purchase June 1, the house was listed May 29. They got 5 offers, we went up to 5% over list price with escalation and contracted for slightly under that amount. We had a large down payment and were as-is on the inspection. We are in MCOL area. Home value is < 2x HHI. Bought at the peak - but we are happy.

Now we are listing our old house today. We will see how the market is in our area. The neighbor's went contingent in just a few days, so it looks like it might still be hot in our area. Will report back.
Jaylat
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Jaylat »

mikejuss wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:52 pm
Jaylat wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:02 pm Our neighbors, a nice older Korean couple, are putting their North San Diego County house up for sale for $2.08 million (distant sea view, 5 bedrooms, 3600sf). They probably paid $500,000 20 years ago. They run two dry cleaning stores here and are very hardworking, frugal people.

They are moving to LA and bought a similar size house in Brentwood for $4 million. Actually, their son, a hedge fund owner, bought it for them. He paid $20 million in taxes alone last year, and bought his Beverly Hills place for $15 million, paying cash. He wants his parents nearby and money is no object.

Even though they got the house for free, their RE taxes will jump from well under $10,000 to over $40,000 a year.
Wow--how do you know all of this about your neighbors?
They're friends, and very proud of their successful son. They volunteered the info. BTW the house sold for $2.3 million in a few days.

We're having some work done on our house, and fighting rumors we are selling. I had buyers knock on my door just last week asking me to sell.

The larger point I was trying to make is that there's a LOT of money out there.
GmanJeff
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by GmanJeff »

Ketawa wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:05 am
GmanJeff wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:38 pm A recent phenomenon I encountered at a Toll Bros. development is the solicitation of bids for lot premiums above and beyond the purchase price of the house itself. That is, while the price of the house is fixed, potential buyers are required to offer binding bids for the lot in which they are interested, with no way to know whether anyone else is bidding on the same lot or what any such bids might be. Obviously, if nobody else bids, the potential buyer will be bidding against themselves, and if there are other bids the potential exists to come in too low and to lose the opportunity to buy the house and lot. Toll Bros. sets a starting $ amount for bidding, which begins once a lot is released (they release just one or two at a time) and the sky is the limit.

Have others encountered this at other developments and/or have suggestions for how to best address this short of simply declining to play the game and opting to buy from a different builder?
How is this that different from the market for other homes? I submitted a bid on a home, learned that there was another offer, and submitted a second offer with an escalation clause.

What if Toll Bros didn't tell people if there were other offers? They'd be hurting themselves, because people wouldn't know they'd need to follow up with an escalation clause or something similar.
Toll Bros does not tell potential buyers whether or not other bids were received except to the extent that a bidder subsequently learns whether their bid was successful or not; there are no opportunities to improve a bid once it is made or to include escalation provisions. Initial bids are best and final, and are made blindly without reference to whether any competition actually exists.
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Darth Xanadu
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Darth Xanadu »

Nate7out wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:24 am Bought at the peak - but we are happy.
Same. We are closing in a week or so on our house purchase in a MCOL-HCOL area. Despite reservations about doing so, we ended up waiving inspection, appraisal, and financing contingencies, and agreed upon sale price was 12% higher than list. Appraisal was waived by Freddie/Fannie, and the loan came through. We will hire an inspector on our own after we take possession.

I strongly believe our offer would not have been accepted if we had not made it clean like that (seller's agent implied 10+ offers).

It's certainly possible we overpaid due to current market conditions, but we anticipate being in this house for 15-20+ years.

Thanks,
DX
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RootSki
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by RootSki »

We first started to look for homes in Central to Northern Bucks county PA in February of 2020. We found a realtor, told them what we were looking for... then the pandemic hit.

When real estate markets opened back up in Pennsylvania we started to see lots of homes from August to October. Then the inventory of everything nice was gone. When the 2021 spring/summer homes started to show up, we went to see a lot of homes. We narrowed our search to just Central Bucks school district. Every home we looked at was selling for $25K to $85K over asking price, all with in a week of listing. Some went under contract sight unseen.

We lowered our expectations and told our realtor to include townhomes and HOA communities (Toll Brothers excluded, no stucco either). We continued to lose out on offer after offer. After yet another rejected offer, my wife was browsing Zillow and clicked the part that says "other listings" aka the non-agent listing or fsbo's. We found a beautiful fsbo home in Doylestown just over the top end of our price range. The lot is way bigger than I want, but it also has it's own trail access into a very large nature preserve. It didn't have the finished basement that we wanted and the master bathroom is boring and outdated, but the location is ideal, and getting out of NJ before my wife's employer asks her to go back into the office is important to us. The home is way more space than we really need, but we will also have a guest room now for visiting relatives. We will each have dedicated wfh offices.

So after we're under contract, it became very important to get our townhome listed. We had a few deferred maintenance items I just didn't have the ability to correct on my own, so we found a local handy-man to help us. Managing him was a bit of a chore, but in the end, we also asked him to fix a few additional items we noticed as we de-cluttered.

A week before we listed, another 3 bed room end unit shows up on MLS as "coming soon" with the listing to go live one day before ours with only 2 exterior pictures. Fast forward a week, their listing doesn't go up. Their listing date got pushed out another week. We priced our home $5K below theirs, not knowing what it looks like. We received a handful of showing requests. The first person to look at our home spent 6 minutes inside. We knew the time by the open/close log on the digital front door lock.Two days later, we get a full price offer, in cash, 10% in earnest. The buyer sent us savings account statements showing over $800K in cash going back to March, 2021. I did the math, had he had that invested in the S&P500, after stcg, he would have had an additional $55K. Anyway, we accepted their offer.

The next day, we get another offer for $6K over asking, but with a mortgage contingency, and less than 5% down in earnest monies. We stuck with the first offer.

We're mortgage free, and we'd like to remain that way, even though it's not considered the most efficient return considering current interest rates. We're the type that like to max our our IRA's by January 2nd and our 401k's by the end of April (both our employers offer true-ups). We diligent about routine investments in the 529 and taxable accounts, and not having a mortgage allows us to keep a smaller emergency fund.

On a side note, I'm super heavy on mega-corp stock because I haven't been selling any of the ESPP's or RSU's knowing I'll be going from paying a 6.97% effective tax on the sale while in NJ, to only paying 3.07% actual once I move to PA. I'm very excited to be able to correct my asset allocation this year!
Nate7out
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Nate7out »

Nate7out wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:24 am We went under contract for purchase June 1, the house was listed May 29. They got 5 offers, we went up to 5% over list price with escalation and contracted for slightly under that amount. We had a large down payment and were as-is on the inspection. We are in MCOL area. Home value is < 2x HHI. Bought at the peak - but we are happy.

Now we are listing our old house today. We will see how the market is in our area. The neighbor's went contingent in just a few days, so it looks like it might still be hot in our area. Will report back.
Day 1: 20 showings, 7 offers, all over list, up to 12%.

This is a starter home in MCOL. Still hot in our market.
exarkun
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by exarkun »

Just curious, why do people say vague things like lcol, mcol, hcol? Is is too much to say what metro area or even what state???
manatee2005
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by manatee2005 »

exarkun wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:43 pm Just curious, why do people say vague things like lcol, mcol, hcol? Is is too much to say what metro area or even what state???
Probably for privacy reasons.
Nate7out
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Nate7out »

Nate7out wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:20 pm
Nate7out wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:24 am We went under contract for purchase June 1, the house was listed May 29. They got 5 offers, we went up to 5% over list price with escalation and contracted for slightly under that amount. We had a large down payment and were as-is on the inspection. We are in MCOL area. Home value is < 2x HHI. Bought at the peak - but we are happy.

Now we are listing our old house today. We will see how the market is in our area. The neighbor's went contingent in just a few days, so it looks like it might still be hot in our area. Will report back.
Day 1: 20 showings, 7 offers, all over list, up to 12%.

This is a starter home in MCOL. Still hot in our market.
After all was said and done we had about 40 showings between Sat and Sun and received 21 offers. Under contract as of last night. Lowest offer was at list price. 20 of 21 were above list price and up to 12% over. List price was adjusted for recent closed sales in the area, and not a lowball. The price trend is still on the way up in our market.
phxjcc
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by phxjcc »

Jul 20 Listed: $1.00 Mil.
Jul 23 Sold: $1.05 Mil.

May 2015: Sold for $550,000

1300 Sq. Ft. Mid Century Modern w/ Butterfly Roof - Wexler Designed

Palm Springs

Shocking--PS is NOT slowing down despite what the CNBC/Bloomberg quoted "experts" suggest.

Central California Coast and Silicon Beach is the same way.

Saw another one go up for $1.2 and we all thought they were nutso--it is now pending.
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unclescrooge
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by unclescrooge »

phxjcc wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:37 pm Jul 20 Listed: $1.00 Mil.
Jul 23 Sold: $1.05 Mil.

May 2015: Sold for $550,000

1300 Sq. Ft. Mid Century Modern w/ Butterfly Roof - Wexler Designed

Palm Springs

Shocking--PS is NOT slowing down despite what the CNBC/Bloomberg quoted "experts" suggest.

Central California Coast and Silicon Beach is the same way.

Saw another one go up for $1.2 and we all thought they were nutso--it is now pending.
Palm springs market is bananas. I looked at a vacation home there in May. Loved the house, laughed at the price and ended up walking away completely. Bought a similar sized house in Paso Robles for half the price instead.
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

I got two calls recently from a RE firm that buys houses outright. This has never happened before. I don’t really want to sell tho. I live in suburb so kinda surprised as there is plenty of land around.
HoberMallow
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by HoberMallow »

We just sold our rental condo in southwest Los Angeles county. Our realtor held two days of open houses and said 60 to 70 buyers came through. We ended up with 5 offers less than a week after putting it on the market and accepted one for about $50k over list.
tony_roach
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by tony_roach »

Have been keeping an eye on this thread as I’m closing a family estate. Listed the home this week and got 6 showings scheduled on first day and 11 on the second day (Central Florida) with an open house coming up. Interested in seeing if that will translate into quick solid offers.
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Lee_WSP
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Lee_WSP »

Another data point. Investors in my area made at least one cash offer with no contingencies before a listing even hit the mls at near planned ask.
phxjcc
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by phxjcc »

manatee2005 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:07 am
exarkun wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:43 pm Just curious, why do people say vague things like lcol, mcol, hcol? Is is too much to say what metro area or even what state???
Probably for privacy reasons.
I agree.

Analogy: ” I invest in a low cost index fund managed by a privately held company. Is this ok?”

Privacy? What a crock….of cheese.
LittleMaggieMae
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by LittleMaggieMae »

exarkun wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:43 pm Just curious, why do people say vague things like lcol, mcol, hcol? Is is too much to say what metro area or even what state???
Probably because real estate is local and giving a clue about the local "value" (low cost, medium cost, high cost of living) gives a clue about the how crazy the prices might be.

A 500K house in a LCOLA is a McMansion. A 500K house in a HCOLA is a run down 1200 sq foot 3b/1b house.

LCOL area generally means median household income is lower - and nice houses usually have a lower price (so the majority of people who live there can afford them.)
HCOL area generally means median household income is higher (it has to be it costs more to live there).
Auream
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Auream »

LittleMaggieMae wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:52 pm
exarkun wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:43 pm Just curious, why do people say vague things like lcol, mcol, hcol? Is is too much to say what metro area or even what state???
Probably because real estate is local and giving a clue about the local "value" (low cost, medium cost, high cost of living) gives a clue about the how crazy the prices might be.

A 500K house in a LCOLA is a McMansion. A 500K house in a HCOLA is a run down 1200 sq foot 3b/1b house.

LCOL area generally means median household income is lower - and nice houses usually have a lower price (so the majority of people who live there can afford them.)
HCOL area generally means median household income is higher (it has to be it costs more to live there).
That’s all well and good, but I think exarkun is suggesting that posters should say things like “San Francisco, CA” instead of “VHCOL” or “Buffalo, NY” instead of “LCOL.” I don’t really see how revealing the city that you are selling in is too much of a privacy issue unless you’re just super paranoid. And a specific city gives a much better idea of prices and markets than generic terms like “HCOL city.”
exarkun
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by exarkun »

Auream wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:52 pm
LittleMaggieMae wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:52 pm
exarkun wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:43 pm Just curious, why do people say vague things like lcol, mcol, hcol? Is is too much to say what metro area or even what state???
Probably because real estate is local and giving a clue about the local "value" (low cost, medium cost, high cost of living) gives a clue about the how crazy the prices might be.

A 500K house in a LCOLA is a McMansion. A 500K house in a HCOLA is a run down 1200 sq foot 3b/1b house.

LCOL area generally means median household income is lower - and nice houses usually have a lower price (so the majority of people who live there can afford them.)
HCOL area generally means median household income is higher (it has to be it costs more to live there).
That’s all well and good, but I think exarkun is suggesting that posters should say things like “San Francisco, CA” instead of “VHCOL” or “Buffalo, NY” instead of “LCOL.” I don’t really see how revealing the city that you are selling in is too much of a privacy issue unless you’re just super paranoid. And a specific city gives a much better idea of prices and markets than generic terms like “HCOL city.”
Thanks Auream, that helps explain my question. VHCOL can vary considerably and the generic area is helpful information which does nothing to eliminate privacy.
tony_roach
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by tony_roach »

tony_roach wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:18 pm Have been keeping an eye on this thread as I’m closing a family estate. Listed the home this week and got 6 showings scheduled on first day and 11 on the second day (Central Florida) with an open house coming up. Interested in seeing if that will translate into quick solid offers.
Quick update. Ended up with 60 showings in the first four days and one open house. Received 10 official offers (half cash vs. half financed) with the highest 20K over asking price. Sale pending inspection (unlike what many have indicated in other markets every offer included a home inspection).
sandorclegane
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by sandorclegane »

manatee2005 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:51 pm
poker27 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:03 pm It’s crazy how different parts of the country are affected by real estate prices.

My townhouse neighbor listed his property at the end of May. Supposedly received zero offers, and reduced the price by about 8% ($40k). 6 weeks later he is now considering renting because of the little interest. This is after spending $40k to freshen the place up.

Current list price is about 25% more then what they paid six years ago, which sounds super reasonable. I’m jealous of everyone in SF and Austin that are retiring and moving after they sell their homes 😉
If you think this is bad, imagine two families, one buys a $60k house in Cleveland, OH in 1960. Another buys a $60 house in Lose Angeles in 1960. What a difference it would make for their kids.
This happened in our family: houses bought by three relatives in 1978, all for about $48,000, in Indiana, New Mexico and Los Angeles.

I’ll give you three guesses which one is worth $4 million today.
fortunefavored
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by fortunefavored »

I think whatever "pause" there was during the opening seems to be gone. Everything back to parabolic in the SF bay area for single family homes.

Listed a below-average, very small SFH in a "working class" (ie, not nice but not ghetto) neighborhood. Sold 17% over list in 48 hours, for higher $ per square foot than every comp on our list - including many fully remodeled and much much nicer homes.

No offers had contingencies. No investment offers, no cash offers (although I suspect most could pay cash if they wanted to, merely using financing as cheap money.)
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RootSki
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by RootSki »

Whew! Phase 1 completed. Closed on our new home yesterday, just 66 days after we went to go see it. I'm very happy about that but I'm not dreading all of the work that turns an empty house into a warm and loving home.
fareastwarriors
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by fareastwarriors »

RootSki wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:57 am Whew! Phase 1 completed. Closed on our new home yesterday, just 66 days after we went to go see it. I'm very happy about that but I'm not dreading all of the work that turns an empty house into a warm and loving home.
Congratulations!
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orthros
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by orthros »

A tale from Cleveland.

House goes up for sale. Built in the 50s. Nice neighborhood - low crime rate, B+ schools (not top tier but certainly high quality). 3 bedroom, 1 bath, maybe 1300 square feet, tops. Has obvious external damage that needs to be repaired both roof and siding.

Listed at around $145,000 which is a good 30% higher than what it sold for a couple years prior with no damage.

Received 10+ offers. Sold in cash for $175,500 in July. One of the (losing) agents had to explain to her clients why offering 10% above asking price not only didn't win but wasn't even close. Multiple offers had escalation clauses, at least one had a waiver of inspection contingency.
Isabelle77
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Isabelle77 »

It feels like our area is slowing down a little. We’re in a WA suburb of Portland and have had a steady flow of remote worker Californians and people leaving Portland.

Over a million is taking a couple weeks now and over 2 even longer. Anything under a million still seems to go quickly or large lots. My friend listed her house for 1.6mil 2 weeks ago and had 5 offers in 48 hours, she has a 5 acre lot with a beautiful view, 30 minutes from PDX. Good for remote work life.

In the last month we’ve been seeing some sellers just asking outrageous prices to see if they stick. There’s a house around the corner that sold for $730k in January 2020 and it’s listed for 1.35mil without any remodel or anything. That’s not going to happen.
mkc
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by mkc »

Heard a new one yesterday

House listed for sale. After about 2 months on the market, seller accepted a full price offer but had a 5 day escape clause in the event they received a better offer. They apparently received (and accepted) such an offer on day 5 and never notified the first buyers.

Have never heard of such a "escape clause". If only the first buyers had enlisted a real estate attorney to review the terms of this clause.
IMO
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by IMO »

Know someone who decided to let go of a home that was under a contract to be built, let the home go because of a relatively small price escalation due to building materials. Know of another person that had their home sale fall through because of a relatively small home inspection issue that came up.

Additionally, multiple homes I track in different areas in zillow have shown price stabilization (and even some slight declines) over the last month.

Personally, I interpret this as a seller's market that is not as strong as before. Doesn't mean it's not still strong as a seller's market, but maybe just not as strong.

I've seen articles that have claimed in many areas home stock numbers are increasing.

I guess time will tell.
stoptothink
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by stoptothink »

IMO wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:58 pm Know someone who decided to let go of a home that was under a contract to be built, let the home go because of a relatively small price escalation due to building materials.
Our friends recently did this, but it wasn't a small escalation. It was large enough (I believe ~$80k) to where they no longer qualified for a mortgage of that size. They're continuing to live in his parent's basement as they have since just before the start of the pandemic (after selling their townhome) with their 3 kids. Might be there for a while. While I believe they still could buy a SFH in the area, they are pretty much priced out of what they wanted and thought they were buying a year ago.
namajones
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by namajones »

FIREchief wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:40 pm It sure seems bubbly. Real estate investors seem to act a lot like DIY market investors at times like this. FOMO is rampant, and they assume since it's been going up it will just keep going up.
This reminds me very much of 2006. For some reason many people just choose to ignore the fact that there are only so many dual-income lawyer or doctor couples who can afford the mortgage on these places. Everyone else who stretches their budget to fit into a big loan is just asking for trouble.

Bubbles burst -> people lose jobs -> foreclosures follow.
henry
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by henry »

Recent tale from Philadelphia suburbs. Relative listed their house in June 2021. 4 bedroom colonial style home built in the early 1980s on a 1/3 acre lot. Listed for 500,000. Had over 30 showings in 3 days with several offers. Under contract on day 4 for 550,000. Buyer waived home inspection. Deal went to closing 3 or 4 weeks later.
fareastwarriors
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by fareastwarriors »

namajones wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:20 am
FIREchief wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:40 pm It sure seems bubbly. Real estate investors seem to act a lot like DIY market investors at times like this. FOMO is rampant, and they assume since it's been going up it will just keep going up.
This reminds me very much of 2006. For some reason many people just choose to ignore the fact that there are only so many dual-income lawyer or doctor couples who can afford the mortgage on these places. Everyone else who stretches their budget to fit into a big loan is just asking for trouble.

Bubbles burst -> people lose jobs -> foreclosures follow.
The difference I see today is these people are really employed and have standard down payment, if not more.

The crazy easy lending standards are not back yet. Sure, there are still some no/low-documentation mortgages available but it's nowhere near as prevalent as the early-mid 2000s.
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RootSki
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by RootSki »

henry wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:45 am Recent tale from Philadelphia suburbs. Relative listed their house in June 2021. 4 bedroom colonial style home built in the early 1980s on a 1/3 acre lot. Listed for 500,000. Had over 30 showings in 3 days with several offers. Under contract on day 4 for 550,000. Buyer waived home inspection. Deal went to closing 3 or 4 weeks later.
I see this scenario play out every day in Bucks county. Some <3000 square foot homes are going for 75k over asking
rage_phish
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by rage_phish »

The two houses 2 doors down just went on the market this week. As someone who just bought my house 3 months ago, I’m following closely!
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8foot7
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by 8foot7 »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:19 am
IMO wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:58 pm Know someone who decided to let go of a home that was under a contract to be built, let the home go because of a relatively small price escalation due to building materials.
Our friends recently did this, but it wasn't a small escalation. It was large enough (I believe ~$80k) to where they no longer qualified for a mortgage of that size. They're continuing to live in his parent's basement as they have since just before the start of the pandemic (after selling their townhome) with their 3 kids. Might be there for a while. While I believe they still could buy a SFH in the area, they are pretty much priced out of what they wanted and thought they were buying a year ago.
Some family friends are building a (very) large home nearby. Original budget from February was 1.2, he's pricing out materials at 1.8 right now. He is a GC so he knows what's up. They are considering not building, and instead selling the lot they purchased. They are currently in a nice rental home.
rage_phish
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by rage_phish »

This is the peak of the insanity for me so far…

This house sold a few blocks from me…

“ Bare bones opportunity to renovate/rebuild/restore. Extensive damage from a fire has this house stripped to the studs on both floors. This one is ready to start fresh and build to suit your style preferences.”
Listed at $850k
Received 8 offers
Sold for $1,000,000

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/254- ... e=txtshare
Ron Ronnerson
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Ron Ronnerson »

rage_phish wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:25 pm This is the peak of the insanity for me so far…

This house sold a few blocks from me…

“ Bare bones opportunity to renovate/rebuild/restore. Extensive damage from a fire has this house stripped to the studs on both floors. This one is ready to start fresh and build to suit your style preferences.”
Listed at $850k
Received 8 offers
Sold for $1,000,000

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/254- ... e=txtshare
The ad put a nice spin on the fire damage and made it sound like the opportunity of a lifetime. Kudos to whomever came up with that angle. This literally shows that location is worth a million bucks.
portfolio123
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by portfolio123 »

What I don't understand is where everyone is moving from? Shouldn't prices be down in some areas - unless lots of people are just buying up second and third homes with extra cash? As an example, if large groups of people are moving to Florida from NYC metro area or to Texas from California, you would think that NY and California prices would be down, but that's not the case. It seems like every real estate market is hot right now (low to high price points in all states), which defies supply/demand economics.
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Beensabu
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Beensabu »

portfolio123 wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:20 pm What I don't understand is where everyone is moving from? Shouldn't prices be down in some areas - unless lots of people are just buying up second and third homes with extra cash? As an example, if large groups of people are moving to Florida from NYC metro area or to Texas from California, you would think that NY and California prices would be down, but that's not the case. It seems like every real estate market is hot right now (low to high price points in all states), which defies supply/demand economics.
They're moving because they can't afford to buy where they are, and it's less expensive where they're going. Or they're cashing out on decades of insane appreciation and downsizing. Since it's less expensive than what they're used to seeing, they're willing to pay more than the locals. This is how high pricing becomes infectious on a national scale. This is why Portland (and other locales on the receiving end of the VHCOL exodus) famously hates California. Transplants totally screwed up the housing market for locals. This phenomenon used to be reserved for the highly desirable areas, which are now at capacity and unaffordable to all but the most wealthy (plus the service sector folks crowding up in shared rentals that hardly a landlord sees the need to actually maintain anymore due to incredibly low inventory and high demand). So now it's spreading to a neighborhood near you. Good luck. Welcome to New California.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
vested1
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by vested1 »

Beensabu wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 12:39 am
portfolio123 wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:20 pm What I don't understand is where everyone is moving from? Shouldn't prices be down in some areas - unless lots of people are just buying up second and third homes with extra cash? As an example, if large groups of people are moving to Florida from NYC metro area or to Texas from California, you would think that NY and California prices would be down, but that's not the case. It seems like every real estate market is hot right now (low to high price points in all states), which defies supply/demand economics.
They're moving because they can't afford to buy where they are, and it's less expensive where they're going. Or they're cashing out on decades of insane appreciation and downsizing. Since it's less expensive than what they're used to seeing, they're willing to pay more than the locals. This is how high pricing becomes infectious on a national scale. This is why Portland (and other locales on the receiving end of the VHCOL exodus) famously hates California. Transplants totally screwed up the housing market for locals. This phenomenon used to be reserved for the highly desirable areas, which are now at capacity and unaffordable to all but the most wealthy (plus the service sector folks crowding up in shared rentals that hardly a landlord sees the need to actually maintain anymore due to incredibly low inventory and high demand). So now it's spreading to a neighborhood near you. Good luck. Welcome to New California.
I get tired of this familiar refrain, which blames Californians for being successful and taking advantage of low priced real estate elsewhere. I suppose a better plan would have been not to plan for the future.

I moved from CA to SC two years ago. I received a delivery from someone who asked to take a stroll down to the dock with me. I agreed and on the way back he told me that a lot of locals (code for him) resent Californians and those from New York for driving up the cost of the local real estate.

I replied that I knew one person who didn't resent Californians for that reason, and he bit. I told him it was the person I bought the house from. I then asked him if he owned his own home and he replied that yes he did. I told him that he should be thankful that Californinas were increasing the value of his home. He shrugged and said he'd never thought of it that way.

You do have one thing right however. I couldn't afford to buy anything better than what I sold in California, and had sacrificed by living in a tiny house for the last 25 of my 66 years there. Oh, and that's where my job was before I retired, so there's that.

I don't consider the location I moved to as the New California, and neither do my neighbors. They seem to like it here, and so do I. Maybe the employers in my new location will begin to pay their workers a better wage so that they can afford to become first time home buyers like I did 27 years ago. Their lower wages are not my fault either.
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by fortunefavored »

portfolio123 wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:20 pm What I don't understand is where everyone is moving from? Shouldn't prices be down in some areas - unless lots of people are just buying up second and third homes with extra cash? As an example, if large groups of people are moving to Florida from NYC metro area or to Texas from California, you would think that NY and California prices would be down, but that's not the case. It seems like every real estate market is hot right now (low to high price points in all states), which defies supply/demand economics.
California: ~40 million people
New York: ~20 million

So a tiny fraction of 60 million people decide to move to Boise, which according to Zillow, has 450 houses listed right now.. and that's how prices go up in Boise.. and has no impact to the megastates. Even spread across 100s of small/medium sized cities.

Most of the megastates continue to grow in population even with out migration. You have a huge pent up single family home demand from the largest generation ever and new construction of SFH has been incredibly depressed since the 2008 bust.

Until rates go up and/or we have a nasty recession, hard to see much correction coming.
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by BogleFan510 »

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Beensabu
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Re: Tales from this insane real estate market

Post by Beensabu »

vested1 wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:36 am I get tired of this familiar refrain, which blames Californians for being successful and taking advantage of low priced real estate elsewhere. I suppose a better plan would have been not to plan for the future.
BogleFan510 wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:31 am These narratives due get tiring. For a hundred years Oregonians and Washingtonians seeking good jobs migrated to California to make more money, then when their children move back it is considerd 'outsiders moving in.' My Mom's family goes back 5 generations in Washington State (and longer if you count my small native american sliver of ancestory) and then she moved to California in the 50s.

People move around. America allows open migration and biggotry is just a plague of negativity.
Wow. I wasn't blaming Californians for anything. I am a Californian.

I have witnessed the highly desirable coastal area in which I was born and raised become unaffordable to even remain renting in for people who grew up there. So they moved. Because it's either that or spend 70-80% of your net income on housing. The people who eventually made the area unaffordable were wealthy people from all over the country and the world who understandably wanted to live in the best place ever. Unfortunately, while the temperate weather and beautiful surroundings aren't going anywhere, the bubble will soon be devoid of the art and culture that made that place really special.

Of course people are going to resent being priced out of their local housing markets. They don't want to have to move away from the place they call home. Right now, they are focusing on the people migrating out of VHCOL areas as the problem. What they don't realize is that eventually, once they are forced to move in search of lower-cost housing, they will be that very same problem for someone else in another place.

New California doesn't mean "here come all the Californians". It means "welcome to the housing crisis". It's not just a VHCOL problem anymore.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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