You are correct, but this has been true for several years. If you do a Google News search for u-haul prices and filter to older articles, you'll see that this multiple is not a new phenomenon. Example: https://fee.org/articles/u-haul-rates-s ... elerating/Bobby206 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:25 pmvfinx wrote: ↑Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:31 pmThe California exodus seems to be exaggerated by the media, and people that want to draw attention to problems in the state. There has always been a steady flow of people that arbitrage the greater wealth generation opportunities the state offers, and I haven't seen data to suggest a dramatic surge in that.unclescrooge wrote: ↑Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:01 amObviously enough people are not leaving. Why else are there still dozens of offers on each property up to a million dollars in SoCal and all houses going into escrow within days of being listed.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:00 pmThat would be the people leaving and selling their houses to FOMO suckers who are going to end up in foreclosure in the next bust. At least, the non trust fundies are... Also renters. Renters leaving in droves. A lot of born and raised getting priced out of the roof over head situation if they're not part of a multi-generation household. Off to PNW, Texas, Nevada and Arizona mostly. For years now.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/art ... 983559.php
I'm also skeptical of the narrative that a lot of people acted irrationally and moved out of state and purchased a house, without guidance from their companies, and will suddenly be forced to move back, triggering a massive real estate crash. Even in tech, most companies did not commit to a permanent remote work force (the media just hyped up the ones that did). The most common pattern I see in tech is a switch to a hybrid model where workers will be expected to be in the office 1-3 days a week, and in my network at least, everyone has planned on that. I know of a few people that are renting a place in a nice location during office closures, but they plan to return (and rent again) once they are called back.
I think there is some exaggeration in the California exodus. However, check how much it costs to rent a U-Haul from LA (or any other California city) to Nashville (or any other city in the southeast) and then check the exact opposite trip on the same day. It will probably cost FIVE TIMES as much to take the truck from California as to drive one west. Simple supply and demand! It tells me there is some net negative migration going on!
So the question is whether there is truly a more recent Covid-specific surge (on top of the pre-existing trend) that is causing a housing bubble in other states. I won't claim to know the answer, but I haven't seen a convincing data-driven one. Just anecdotes both ways.