If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

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pasadena
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by pasadena »

I think your point is valid and that "number" should be higher when one is a decade into a raging bull market than it needs to be when in the midst of a bear market. I'm one of these people whose "number" includes some buffer - so it's higher than 25x.

Now, the answer to your question is entirely personal and the issue is psychological. My answer is... depends :)

If I reached my number tomorrow, I wouldn't retire. It's a combination of age - I'm 46 - and the fact that there is still a pandemic going on. So I would at least wait the latter out and reevaluate once the world is back to normal. But I would definitely start taking action by reducing my stock allocation (slowly), and setting a definitive retirement date. I'd probably decide to retire at 50 with a nice buffer.

If I reach my number in 5 years, assuming the same market conditions and no pandemic... I would retire, yes. I would definitely take my time thinking about it and planning, making sure I save as much as I can in that final year, but yes, I would stop working.

Or maybe go part-time for a couple of years.
LivingTheDream
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by LivingTheDream »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:41 am
LivingTheDream wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:47 am YES!!

I actually retired before I hit my number, although not in this market. My # was 40x. I decided to retire at 25x 3-4 years ago. My rationale was simply that market uncertainty was already built into my plan, but life uncertainty was not. I decided to enjoy what limited time I have left (hopefully 40+ years, but possibly only 40 hrs... you just never know).
Which withdrawal strategy are you using? The "4% rule" only covers 30 years...
I'm using McClung's EM (which is based upon Blanchett's Mortality Updating Failure Percentage), with a 50% initial valuation tilt & a 45-yr timeframe. My portfolio doesn't mirror his recommended one. As a point of reference, annually I look at the VPW worksheet to compare my withdrawal amounts to (which works nicely to include future Social Security benefits into the calcs). My "allowed" withdrawals currently exceed my spending needs. EM & VPW calc at 4.5% - 5.0%, but my actual is about 3.25%.
Living The Dream
Marseille07
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Marseille07 »

LivingTheDream wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:53 am
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:41 am
LivingTheDream wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:47 am YES!!

I actually retired before I hit my number, although not in this market. My # was 40x. I decided to retire at 25x 3-4 years ago. My rationale was simply that market uncertainty was already built into my plan, but life uncertainty was not. I decided to enjoy what limited time I have left (hopefully 40+ years, but possibly only 40 hrs... you just never know).
Which withdrawal strategy are you using? The "4% rule" only covers 30 years...
I'm using McClung's EM (which is based upon Blanchett's Mortality Updating Failure Percentage), with a 50% initial valuation tilt & a 45-yr timeframe. My portfolio doesn't mirror his recommended one. As a point of reference, annually I look at the VPW worksheet to compare my withdrawal amounts to (which works nicely to include future Social Security benefits into the calcs). My "allowed" withdrawals currently exceed my spending needs. EM & VPW calc at 4.5% - 5.0%, but my actual is about 3.25%.
Thank you. I guess 3.25% actual would be okay so long as you can keep it around that range. Very gutsy move, good luck!
GoneCamping
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by GoneCamping »

Yes, we will be retiring in July. We hit our target number a little ahead of our target age so we kept working and saving and now have more than our than that number but are at the age we planned/hoped to retire (55/56). If we work longer we will likely be in a better position financially but will not achieve the kind of wealth where we could live off cash stuffed under the mattress.

So, we're moving ahead as planned and comfortable with our decision. There is more to retiring than just finances and we simply value our time and health too much; neither is a given nor infinite. There is always a risk when one retires and equally there is never any knowledge of what the future holds. In that regard, today is no different than any other time in history.
KlangFool
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by KlangFool »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:42 am
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:15 am
Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:51 am
mpott65 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:54 pm I'm in the same situation. I'm 56, wife is 51 and we have 35x expenses (bare minimum) and 25x if I add a couple thousand for travel, etc. We also have 2x yearly expenses in cash for emergencies. Those numbers don't include SS or a small ($600/month at 65) pension. My main concerns are having enough funds to last 30+ years if we retire now and the cost of health insurance. I've read a ton of posts and done some research on ACA, etc. but its hard to get a good estimate of what our actual monthly/out of pocket costs will be.
Ugh. Health insurance. It's the uncertain cost/budget which seems a big blocker.
Wannaretireearly,

1) I know that if I cannot afford health insurance, majority of people cannot afford health insurance too. Either something will be done or the medical industry will go into a reset. I budgeted 20K annually for medical expense.

2) There is always a plan B. Medical offshoring.

A) I have friend that did their major dental work in Middle East. It is cheaper even counting the cost of plane ticket.

B) I have friend that fly their parent back to India for major heart surgery with US certified surgeon in India.

C) Country like Singapore. It could be cheaper even without insurance.

KlangFool
All good points. My plan B is setup in the UK again (born there). Easier said than done, but I should work on plan B setup.
I guess we do have ACA. Seems to be getting better, not worse.🤞
As far as I can tell, UK is not a good plan B. You may need a plan C like Singapore.

KlangFool
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flyingaway
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by flyingaway »

OK. Let's play the game. If I have $5M today, I would not retire because the market is high.

Tomorrow, the market crashes 50%, I will have $2.5M, should I retire? Of course not.

What is the correct action required here? Today, I have $5M, if that is my number, I should sell all stocks and buy bonds. Then tomorrow, market crashes 50% and I still have $5M. Then I SHOULD sell bonds and buy stocks, and RETIRE.

(I actually sold a large amount of stock funds yesterdays and bought bond funds, and I am kicking myself today, and still have not retired).
LivingTheDream
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by LivingTheDream »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:56 am
LivingTheDream wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:53 am
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:41 am
LivingTheDream wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:47 am YES!!

I actually retired before I hit my number, although not in this market. My # was 40x. I decided to retire at 25x 3-4 years ago. My rationale was simply that market uncertainty was already built into my plan, but life uncertainty was not. I decided to enjoy what limited time I have left (hopefully 40+ years, but possibly only 40 hrs... you just never know).
Which withdrawal strategy are you using? The "4% rule" only covers 30 years...
I'm using McClung's EM (which is based upon Blanchett's Mortality Updating Failure Percentage), with a 50% initial valuation tilt & a 45-yr timeframe. My portfolio doesn't mirror his recommended one. As a point of reference, annually I look at the VPW worksheet to compare my withdrawal amounts to (which works nicely to include future Social Security benefits into the calcs). My "allowed" withdrawals currently exceed my spending needs. EM & VPW calc at 4.5% - 5.0%, but my actual is about 3.25%.
Thank you. I guess 3.25% actual would be okay so long as you can keep it around that range. Very gutsy move, good luck!
Thanks. My spending is about 60/40 (40% discretionary), so variable spending levels will be a key part of my strategy. And once SS benefits start, assuming similar spending, I'll be at about half of that WR.
Living The Dream
Wannaretireearly
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Wannaretireearly »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
As far as I can tell, UK is not a good plan B. You may need a plan C like Singapore.

KlangFool
Interesting, what would be your reasons for this?
“At some point you are trading time you will never get back for money you will never spend.“ | “How do you want to spend the best remaining year of your life?“
KlangFool
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by KlangFool »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:48 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
As far as I can tell, UK is not a good plan B. You may need a plan C like Singapore.

KlangFool
Interesting, what would be your reasons for this?
Wannaretireearly,

I do not know enough about the UK health system. But, you may want to research the health care cost in Singapore without insurance and/or private insurance. There are foreign ex-pat retiring in Singapore. I am not sure that is true for UK.

KlangFool
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Wannaretireearly
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Wannaretireearly »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:51 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:48 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
As far as I can tell, UK is not a good plan B. You may need a plan C like Singapore.

KlangFool
Interesting, what would be your reasons for this?
Wannaretireearly,

I do not know enough about the UK health system. But, you may want to research the health care cost in Singapore without insurance and/or private insurance. There are foreign ex-pat retiring in Singapore. I am not sure that is true for UK.

KlangFool
Got it, thanks Klang.
Also heard Thailand & Vietnam are worthy health tourist destinations too...
“At some point you are trading time you will never get back for money you will never spend.“ | “How do you want to spend the best remaining year of your life?“
KlangFool
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by KlangFool »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:11 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:51 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:48 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
As far as I can tell, UK is not a good plan B. You may need a plan C like Singapore.

KlangFool
Interesting, what would be your reasons for this?
Wannaretireearly,

I do not know enough about the UK health system. But, you may want to research the health care cost in Singapore without insurance and/or private insurance. There are foreign ex-pat retiring in Singapore. I am not sure that is true for UK.

KlangFool
Got it, thanks Klang.
Also heard Thailand & Vietnam are worthy health tourist destinations too...
Those countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand) are favorite locations for UK retiree. So, I would assume that the health care are better or comparable to UK.

KlangFool
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finite_difference
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by finite_difference »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:20 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:11 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:51 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:48 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
As far as I can tell, UK is not a good plan B. You may need a plan C like Singapore.

KlangFool
Interesting, what would be your reasons for this?
Wannaretireearly,

I do not know enough about the UK health system. But, you may want to research the health care cost in Singapore without insurance and/or private insurance. There are foreign ex-pat retiring in Singapore. I am not sure that is true for UK.

KlangFool
Got it, thanks Klang.
Also heard Thailand & Vietnam are worthy health tourist destinations too...
Those countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand) are favorite locations for UK retiree. So, I would assume that the health care are better or comparable to UK.

KlangFool
I wonder how much less you would need to retire in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, China or Mexico compared to the US.

I agree it’s always nice to have a Plan B and Plan C in case things don’t work.

I am thinking of retiring to a Mandarin-speaking or Spanish-speaking area since I tend to like those cultures. I’m guessing with a portfolio of ~$500k and 60/40 you could live decently if you withdraw 3.5% per year: 17.5/yr or $1460 per month? I think in many countries you can have a comfortable middle class life style with $1300/month. (Well, maybe not Singapore.)

One can also live pretty comfortably in the US on $1500/month if you own your house, have medical care, and the property taxes are not too high.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
KlangFool
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by KlangFool »

finite_difference wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:40 pm
I wonder how much less you would need to retire in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, China or Mexico compared to the US.

I agree it’s always nice to have a Plan B and Plan C in case things don’t work.

I am thinking of retiring to a Mandarin-speaking or Spanish-speaking area since I tend to like those cultures. I’m guessing with a portfolio of ~$500k and 60/40 you could live decently if you withdraw 3.5% per year: 17.5/yr or $1460 per month? I think in many countries you can have a comfortable middle class life style with $1300/month. (Well, maybe not Singapore.)

One can also live pretty comfortably in the US on $1500/month if you own your house, have medical care, and the property taxes are not too high.
finite_difference,

<<I think in many countries you can have a comfortable middle class life style with $1300/month.>>

I believe that dependent on the COVID-19 impact on each country, the answer will change drastically. As per a US person, the foreign exchange rate will be a key factor.

KlangFool
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jxlegend
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by jxlegend »

Someone earlier, in March, posted about projections of 6% for the year? We just blew past that barely 4 months in.

I for one believe in the United States' economy, and drive to innovate.
AlohaJoe
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by AlohaJoe »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:11 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:51 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:48 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
As far as I can tell, UK is not a good plan B. You may need a plan C like Singapore.

KlangFool
Interesting, what would be your reasons for this?
Wannaretireearly,

I do not know enough about the UK health system. But, you may want to research the health care cost in Singapore without insurance and/or private insurance. There are foreign ex-pat retiring in Singapore. I am not sure that is true for UK.

KlangFool
Got it, thanks Klang.
Also heard Thailand & Vietnam are worthy health tourist destinations too...
I live in Vietnam. I also know a ton of people who travel to Singapore (and Japan) for healthcare because that's a very popular medical tourism destination for rich Vietnamese.

Singaporean health care is extraordinarily expensive. Most global expat insurance will have exclusions like "we pay everywhere in the world except the US and Singapore". Asian regional health insurance always excludes Singapore as well. Obviously you can pay extra to get Singapore added....

Vietnamese health care is also expensive. Rather, it is expensive if you want people who speak English well. I don't know of any medical tourism except by people of Vietnamese descent (i.e. they may live in America but speak Vietnamese fluently). The vast majority of medical places that have English speaking staff cater towards expats on expat-salaries and expat-health care where they know the customer doesn't care about the cost. Going to an English-speaking dentist will cost you $100 for a teeth cleaning. A friend just got a laser mole removal at an English-speaking place and it was $500. Claimed on her expat insurance, so she didn't pay anything, of course. Going to a local hospital where absolutely nobody speaks a word of English, the same thing is $50.

Beyond health insurance issues, moving to Singapore and Vietnam in order to retire isn't really feasible. Neither country is interested in taking in retirees. Both of them only give visas to people who have jobs or are investors (and Vietnam just increased the minimum investment this year to $150,000). The only foreigners retiring in Singapore are ones who have worked there long enough to become eligible for Permanent Residency. Vietnam doesn't even offer permanent residency. The only way to stay in Vietnam indefinitely is to have a job or get married to a citizen, which only grants you a Temporary Resident Card valid for 3 years. And everything is tied to the TRC. Vehicle registration? Expires the same day your TRC. Driver's license? Expires the same day as your TRC. Have a term deposit at the bank? Can't go past the expiration of your TRC. So every 3 years you need to renew a whole bunch of things.

Also you can't really own property in Singapore or Vietnam, which complicates hedging against inflation as a retiree. The government essentially owns all the land in both countries and you are only buying a temporary land use certificate. This is already causing problems in Singapore where the people have "bought" property that is going to be reclaimed by the government in ~10 years, meaning the resale value is actually going down.
halfnine
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by halfnine »

finite_difference wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:40 pm ...I am thinking of retiring to a Mandarin-speaking or Spanish-speaking area since I tend to like those cultures...
Whether you like the culture is not as important as whether they like you. Not saying that these places don't exist but you need to be aware of the difference.
halfnine
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by halfnine »

I have extended family in the UK. The UK is a fine plan B. It is not going to cost you anything and most maladies will be sorted out fine within the NHS. Where the UK has gaps one could simply go spend a month or two in Thailand instead and then come back.

We also have family friends in Singapore. They have ties to Australia and prefer to go back to Australia for any significant medical treatment rather than get treatment in Singapore.
Dave55
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Dave55 »

Enganerd wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:32 am I became passionate about investing through FIRE ambitions. I have come to enjoy my job and security that comes from it but I still think about my original plans from time to time. This past year I blew past my old # based off 25x annual expenses but for some reason these gains do not feel secure. Even if I was still committed to FIRE I do not think I could pull the trigger in the current market. The fiscal and monetary response to COVID obviously inflated asset prices. It would seem practical to expect inflation. With fixed income offering low nominal rates it would be hard to expect real returns or appreciation. I know times are always unique and no one knows anything but I really think hitting in your number in 2016 would have felt much more stable. Right now I have little confidence in the wealth generating or preserving capabilities of any portfolio. Heck, I made a lot of money on btc and I don't know whether to sell and be happy speculation worked out or to keep buying...
You answered your own question.

Dave
"Reality always wins, your only job is to get in touch with it." Wilfred Bion
Topic Author
Enganerd
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Enganerd »

Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:49 pm
geerhardusvos wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:56 am
Enganerd wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:32 am I became passionate about investing through FIRE ambitions. I have come to enjoy my job and security that comes from it but I still think about my original plans from time to time. This past year I blew past my old # based off 25x annual expenses but for some reason these gains do not feel secure. Even if I was still committed to FIRE I do not think I could pull the trigger in the current market. The fiscal and monetary response to COVID obviously inflated asset prices. It would seem practical to expect inflation. With fixed income offering low nominal rates it would be hard to expect real returns or appreciation. I know times are always unique and no one knows anything but I really think hitting in your number in 2016 would have felt much more stable. Right now I have little confidence in the wealth generating or preserving capabilities of any portfolio. Heck, I made a lot of money on btc and I don't know whether to sell and be happy speculation worked out or to keep buying...
If you have above 25 X your annual expenses invested, then you don’t have to worry about it. Instead of a 4% wr, with current valuations 3 to 3.5% WR is recommended. Definitely get out of your BTC and stop worrying about your portfolio. Stick with your plan; enjoy your retirement! Or keep working if that’s what you like to do, but you don’t have to.

In answer to your question, yes, in the current market I would feel comfortable quitting my job with 28 or 30 X annual expenses invested.
Definitely DO NOT get out of your Bitcoin. However, if you bought some time back and now it's much more than 5% of your portfolio, perhaps consider selling some to get it back to around 5%. Bitcoin is one of the few assets that should do well during a major catastrophe. It's a great insurance policy on some black swan events (not all, but many). People have been telling others to quickly sell their risky BTC for over 10 years, it was always a huge mistake. It still is, in my opinion. Yes, gold could work as an insurance hedge, but BTC is so much better. Few under 50 will buy gold, many will buy BTC. The flipping will happen, BTC will replace gold as the primary SOV against a falling dollar, runaway inflation, major political upheaval etc. This will happen over the next decade. Stay the course.
I went in roughly at 5% and it is now up to ~25%. I am having trouble selling because I still feel it has good expected returns but OTOH there is obviously speculative mania effecting prices of everything right now. Eventually there will be a blow off. So far btc has always sold off to a greater magnitude of stocks, I know maxis think eventually this will be the case but I am very skeptical. Obviously other DOGE's recent raise makes me nervous the top is very near for this speculative mania.
Topic Author
Enganerd
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Enganerd »

Dave55 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:13 pm
Enganerd wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:32 am I became passionate about investing through FIRE ambitions. I have come to enjoy my job and security that comes from it but I still think about my original plans from time to time. This past year I blew past my old # based off 25x annual expenses but for some reason these gains do not feel secure. Even if I was still committed to FIRE I do not think I could pull the trigger in the current market. The fiscal and monetary response to COVID obviously inflated asset prices. It would seem practical to expect inflation. With fixed income offering low nominal rates it would be hard to expect real returns or appreciation. I know times are always unique and no one knows anything but I really think hitting in your number in 2016 would have felt much more stable. Right now I have little confidence in the wealth generating or preserving capabilities of any portfolio. Heck, I made a lot of money on btc and I don't know whether to sell and be happy speculation worked out or to keep buying...
You answered your own question.

Dave
Right, I intended to start the thread to address the topic as it is interesting to me. Not so much because I want actionable advice, I am not leaving the work force right now for not trusting current gains and other life reasons.

It just seems like the global fiscal/monetary response to the COVID crash was so extreme it would be hard to have confidence in the early retirement planning techniques discussed from like 2010-2016. But maybe I am just becoming more aware of the actual level uncertainty there is financial planning. I have read Bernstein's retirement calculator from hell series and felt I understood it it but after 2020 I have a new appreciation.
Clammypollack
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Clammypollack »

I am now at about 50 times expenses and can retire pretty much any time but I like my job and my company pays me far too much money to do far too little work for me to retire at this point. On top of that I’m waiting for my wife to put in 2 more years in at her job and secure health insurance at employee rates for us. I also don’t believe that the value that we are all sitting on will hold. I just feel like it has run up so quickly that somehow it will be deflated, whether that be through a market downturn, Government gamesmanship and taxation or some unforeseen phenomenon. I just don’t want to wait too long. I would like to be mobile and able to travel and enjoy life during retirement. It really is a tough decision with so many variables.
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Shackleton
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Shackleton »

In answer to your question, I hit my number unexpectedly last fall. Gave notice and then retired the first week of January this year. So my answer is, yes I would.
“Superhuman effort isn't worth a damn unless it achieves results.” ~Ernest Shackleton
tibbitts
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by tibbitts »

I think the "in this market" part is a bit misleading. On the equity side if you have say 50% international and a somewhat traditional Boglehead mid-small value and maybe REIT tilt, "this market" is pretty good but not exactly the greatest ever. Bonds? Some of them had a good 2020 but for example one of my funds returned 1.7%. Yawn.
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tooluser
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by tooluser »

Isn't "Yawn" perfect retirement weather if you can afford to do so?
Prahasaurus
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Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Post by Prahasaurus »

Enganerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:38 pm
Prahasaurus wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:49 pm
geerhardusvos wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:56 am
Enganerd wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:32 am I became passionate about investing through FIRE ambitions. I have come to enjoy my job and security that comes from it but I still think about my original plans from time to time. This past year I blew past my old # based off 25x annual expenses but for some reason these gains do not feel secure. Even if I was still committed to FIRE I do not think I could pull the trigger in the current market. The fiscal and monetary response to COVID obviously inflated asset prices. It would seem practical to expect inflation. With fixed income offering low nominal rates it would be hard to expect real returns or appreciation. I know times are always unique and no one knows anything but I really think hitting in your number in 2016 would have felt much more stable. Right now I have little confidence in the wealth generating or preserving capabilities of any portfolio. Heck, I made a lot of money on btc and I don't know whether to sell and be happy speculation worked out or to keep buying...
If you have above 25 X your annual expenses invested, then you don’t have to worry about it. Instead of a 4% wr, with current valuations 3 to 3.5% WR is recommended. Definitely get out of your BTC and stop worrying about your portfolio. Stick with your plan; enjoy your retirement! Or keep working if that’s what you like to do, but you don’t have to.

In answer to your question, yes, in the current market I would feel comfortable quitting my job with 28 or 30 X annual expenses invested.
Definitely DO NOT get out of your Bitcoin. However, if you bought some time back and now it's much more than 5% of your portfolio, perhaps consider selling some to get it back to around 5%. Bitcoin is one of the few assets that should do well during a major catastrophe. It's a great insurance policy on some black swan events (not all, but many). People have been telling others to quickly sell their risky BTC for over 10 years, it was always a huge mistake. It still is, in my opinion. Yes, gold could work as an insurance hedge, but BTC is so much better. Few under 50 will buy gold, many will buy BTC. The flipping will happen, BTC will replace gold as the primary SOV against a falling dollar, runaway inflation, major political upheaval etc. This will happen over the next decade. Stay the course.
I went in roughly at 5% and it is now up to ~25%. I am having trouble selling because I still feel it has good expected returns but OTOH there is obviously speculative mania effecting prices of everything right now. Eventually there will be a blow off. So far btc has always sold off to a greater magnitude of stocks, I know maxis think eventually this will be the case but I am very skeptical. Obviously other DOGE's recent raise makes me nervous the top is very near for this speculative mania.
Sure. Which is why perhaps a good compromise is to sell some so you stay invested in BTC, but also lock in some gains. Just classic rebalancing that every Boglehead understands and loves... Especially if you have hit your retirement number. If you've won the game, stop playing, etc. Good luck!
Asset Allocation: VT
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