Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator [Updated for 2024]

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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Monster99 wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:17 pm Thanks for the response - I will try to look at the output more closely. I had just noticed that the benefit multiplier didn't seem to increment for the 8 months between FRA and age 67 but did at 9 months....
Do you see in the options in the forms to "calculate benefit after initial entitlement? Choose FRA + two months (as an example) as the date of entitlement. But then increment the "calculate benefit after..." one month at a time from FRA + 2 months for 12 months and look at the benefit. When does it change? Why did your benefit go up at some point, even though you didn't change the retirement/entitlement date?

Edit to add: For the experiment above, in the assumptions, select the "no increase" options if you haven't already, to ensure you are only seeing the effects of delayed credits, rather than COLAs or other inflation-related changes coming into play.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by corn18 »

In to follow
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
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Monster99
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Monster99 »

neurosphere wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:16 am
Monster99 wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:17 pm Thanks for the response - I will try to look at the output more closely. I had just noticed that the benefit multiplier didn't seem to increment for the 8 months between FRA and age 67 but did at 9 months....
Do you see in the options in the forms to "calculate benefit after initial entitlement? Choose FRA + two months (as an example) as the date of entitlement. But then increment the "calculate benefit after..." one month at a time from FRA + 2 months for 12 months and look at the benefit. When does it change? Why did your benefit go up at some point, even though you didn't change the retirement/entitlement date?

Edit to add: For the experiment above, in the assumptions, select the "no increase" options if you haven't already, to ensure you are only seeing the effects of delayed credits, rather than COLAs or other inflation-related changes coming into play.
I put in FRA + 2 months and then incremented the "calculate benefit after .." as above and the only change occurred at age 67 and 1 month -
(data below - I removed the personal numbers)

The delayed increment changed

Sex: male
Date of birth: December 06, 1956
Retired in June 2023 at age 66 and 6 months
Benefit as of January 2024 at age 67 and 1 month
Full retirement age: 66 and 4 months
Early retirement age: 62 and 1 month
Wage-Indexed Formula (1977 Act)
PIA =
MFB =
Special Minimum
PIA =
MFB =
Indexed Monthly Earnings =
Primary Insurance Amount =
Number of months increment = 2
Delayed increment factor = 1.01333
Benefit before rounding =
Benefit after rounding =
Maximum Family Benefit =

Here is the one that got my attention:

Sex: male
Date of birth: December 06, 1956
Retired in December 2023 at age 67 and 0 months
Full retirement age: 66 and 4 months
Early retirement age: 62 and 1 month
Wage-Indexed Formula (1977 Act)
PIA =
MFB =
Special Minimum
PIA =
MFB =
Indexed Monthly Earnings =
Primary Insurance Amount =
Number of months increment = 0
Delayed increment factor = 1.00000
Benefit before rounding =
Benefit after rounding =
Maximum Family Benefit =

add a month and get 9....

Sex: male
Date of birth: December 06, 1956
Retired in January 2024 at age 67 and 1 month
Full retirement age: 66 and 4 months
Early retirement age: 62 and 1 month
Wage-Indexed Formula (1977 Act)
PIA =
MFB =
Special Minimum
PIA =
MFB =
Indexed Monthly Earnings =
Primary Insurance Amount =
Number of months increment = 9
Delayed increment factor = 1.06000
Benefit before rounding =
Benefit after rounding =
Maximum Family Benefit =

.....so I am still confused...
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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Monster99 wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:39 pm .....so I am still confused...
Ok:

-- The date you retire sets the delayed credits if any
-- But the delayed credits do not appear until the following JANUARY [Edit: well, perhaps not always the following Jan, but perhaps a January]

Now go back to your examples and see if that makes sense with your numbers. Hint, one of your examples has "Benefit as of January 2024 at age 67 and 1 month". It's the MONTH that's relevant here and NOT your age. :wink:
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Monster99
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Monster99 »

To me, seems like it should be calculated from my FRA to when I claim my benefit. Calculators are sometimes weird....☺☺
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Monster99 wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:04 pm To me, seems like it should be calculated from my FRA to when I claim my benefit. Calculators are sometimes weird....
But the calculator is 100% correct. :D

You wrote "it should be calculated...". What does "it" refer to? From the examples you posted, it seems all the outputs are accurate? The delayed credits and the benefit in your example seem correctly calculated to me.

Suggestion: you'll get more help if you start a new post which focuses on your question or problem with anypia, because some people will ignore threads which have a title that they are not interested in (e.g. Downloadable SS estimator vs "help understanding anypia output").
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
Tdubs
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Tdubs »

Need to get the update.
Last edited by Tdubs on Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Monster99
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Monster99 »

neurosphere wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:57 pm
Monster99 wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:04 pm To me, seems like it should be calculated from my FRA to when I claim my benefit. Calculators are sometimes weird....
But the calculator is 100% correct. :D

You wrote "it should be calculated...". What does "it" refer to? From the examples you posted, it seems all the outputs are accurate? The delayed credits and the benefit in your example seem correctly calculated to me.

Suggestion: you'll get more help if you start a new post which focuses on your question or problem with anypia, because some people will ignore threads which have a title that they are not interested in (e.g. Downloadable SS estimator vs "help understanding anypia output").
Thanks for your help in understanding the AnyPIA calculator.
What got my interest in this was our visit to our local SSA office and the DW got a printout with monthly increases from 62 to 70. ( she was signing up for Medicare)
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

deleted (not relevant, and the error I was reporting was user error, so no useful content in the post to keep around BH).
Last edited by neurosphere on Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

I've finally gotten around to comparing my downloadable calculator to the output of anypia, for more than just the default assumptions, and as far as I can tell, our outputs match.

Note that anypia's outputs will give you the result in FUTURE dollars. For example, a benefit amount in anypia is the number that will be "on the check"* in the future, in the dollars at that time. However, my output calculates the value of that benefit in today's dollars (Sept 2019 dollars actually) so that one can get an idea of the spending power of a future benefit. Note of course that SS's default assumptions are for no inflation of any kind, and thus today's dollars and tomorrow's dollars are always the same for the default assumptions. But I do not find the assumption of zero wage and price inflation reasonable, especially for younger workers.

Neurosphere

*ignoring medicare or other deductions
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
joylesshusband
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by joylesshusband »

neurosphere wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:13 am I've finally gotten around to comparing my downloadable calculator to the output of anypia, for more than just the default assumptions, and as far as I can tell, our outputs match.

Note that anypia's outputs will give you the result in FUTURE dollars. For example, a benefit amount in anypia is the number that will be "on the check"* in the future, in the dollars at that time. However, my output calculates the value of that benefit in today's dollars (Sept 2019 dollars actually) so that one can get an idea of the spending power of a future benefit. Note of course that SS's default assumptions are for no inflation of any kind, and thus today's dollars and tomorrow's dollars are always the same for the default assumptions. But I do not find the assumption of zero wage and price inflation reasonable, especially for younger workers.

Neurosphere

*ignoring medicare or other deductions
Your statement I bolded above is clearly incorrect.
I have been using Anypia since 2015, and all its versions have always presented the outputs in today's dollars, just as intended.

At this point you have Zero credibility with me as It does not seem you wish to be bothered with facts when they are inconvenient for you.
Retired July 2018 @ age 59. Posting here purely for amusement.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

joylesshusband wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:42 pm
neurosphere wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:13 am I've finally gotten around to comparing my downloadable calculator to the output of anypia, for more than just the default assumptions, and as far as I can tell, our outputs match.

Note that anypia's outputs will give you the result in FUTURE dollars. For example, a benefit amount in anypia is the number that will be "on the check"* in the future, in the dollars at that time. However, my output calculates the value of that benefit in today's dollars (Sept 2019 dollars actually) so that one can get an idea of the spending power of a future benefit. Note of course that SS's default assumptions are for no inflation of any kind, and thus today's dollars and tomorrow's dollars are always the same for the default assumptions. But I do not find the assumption of zero wage and price inflation reasonable, especially for younger workers.

Neurosphere

*ignoring medicare or other deductions
Your statement I bolded above is clearly incorrect.
I have been using Anypia since 2015, and all its versions have always presented the outputs in today's dollars, just as intended.

At this point you have Zero credibility with me as It does not seem you wish to be bothered with facts when they are inconvenient for you.
I'm happy to work with you so that I may understand my flaws. I'm eager to learn.

First off, I did write "Note of course that SS's default assumptions are for no inflation of any kind, and thus today's dollars and tomorrow's dollars are always the same for the default assumptions." Did you read that sentence, and does it make sense to you?

I might suggest you try this test. Entere non-zero assumptions into anypia. That is, for a worker under age 60, choose wage inflation and price inflation changes of something like 10% each year, and then look at the output for some future benefit. What do you get when you compare that benefit to the default assumptions?

I have a thick skin, but I'm mildly annoyed that you chose to say I don't wish to be bothered by facts when they are "inconvenient to me". If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and will admit that, and will thank you for the education. So, let's educate each other rather than insult. Are you willing?
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

joylesshusband wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:42 pm
neurosphere wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:13 am I've finally gotten around to comparing my downloadable calculator to the output of anypia, for more than just the default assumptions, and as far as I can tell, our outputs match.

Note that anypia's outputs will give you the result in FUTURE dollars. For example, a benefit amount in anypia is the number that will be "on the check"* in the future, in the dollars at that time. However, my output calculates the value of that benefit in today's dollars (Sept 2019 dollars actually) so that one can get an idea of the spending power of a future benefit. Note of course that SS's default assumptions are for no inflation of any kind, and thus today's dollars and tomorrow's dollars are always the same for the default assumptions. But I do not find the assumption of zero wage and price inflation reasonable, especially for younger workers.

Neurosphere

*ignoring medicare or other deductions
Your statement I bolded above is clearly incorrect.
I have been using Anypia since 2015, and all its versions have always presented the outputs in today's dollars, just as intended.

At this point you have Zero credibility with me as It does not seem you wish to be bothered with facts when they are inconvenient for you.
Let me help you understand anypia (or alternately, I hope you will help me understand it). When one downloads anypia, it comes with sample data files. Load the "sample 1" data set into anypia. Then for that example, change the benefit increase assumptions and average wage increase assumptions to "no increase for each". These are the default assumptions when one opens anypia without an existing ".pia" file. Then, calculate the benefit.

When I do that I see that the "benefit after rounding" is "3,178.00"

Now, using the identical worker data and earnings info, make one change. Change only the "benefit increase assumptions" to "2019 Trustees Report Alternative III"* and re-run the report. The benefit is now "3,508.00"

Why is there a difference? If the output is in today's dollars, changing the CPI data should not make a difference.

Or perhaps I have misunderstood you?

Note, if you can't find the sample data files, you can probably get a similar understanding by using any worker/earning data you want. Use your own. But just remember to calculate a benefit date in the future, rather than today.

Neurosphere
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
Washingtonhoya
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Washingtonhoya »

Neurosphere - thank you so much for putting together this model. Clearly a lot of hard work and thought went into it, and it's helped to educate me about the surprisingly complex math that goes into determining my social security benefits.

Regarding your conversation with joylesshusband: your response makes perfect sense. If you change the 'benefit increase assumptions' in Anypia to the Trustees assumptions, the benefit goes up, meaning that it is taking into account the CPI inflation. If it was expressed in today-dollars, you should not see any change in the benefit, since CPI inflation only affects then-year amounts.

Conversely, your model actually uses CPI to *deflate* the benefit back to present-year dollars. In other words, when I change the inflation assumptions on the 'Earnings and Main Output' page from '1' (zero inflation) to '2' (trustees estimate), there are two things happening:

- Wage inflation increases: This inflates the SSWB, and thereby your AIME, so the annual FRA goes *up* (as seen in column Y under the hidden 'Main' tab)
- Price inflation increases: This doesn't affect the FRA, but to ensure that we are expressing the benefit in today dollars, your model adjusts the FRA *down* (column Z in the 'Main' tab)

For those willing to dig under the hood, you can see that the model is consistent with Anypia even under inflationary scenarios. You just have to disentangle the effect of wage inflation from the effect of CPI inflation. For example - if you enter the same exact data from Sample 1 in Anypia into your model, and then run Anypia with the assumption of zero benefit increase and wage increases based on the 2019 Trustees Report Alternative II, you can see that their PIA ($3,428.80) is virtually identical to the non-inflation adjusted PIA in your model (cell V71 under 'Main' = $3,428.05). In other words, your model takes into account the wage increases, just as they do, and then it deflates the PIA back to current-year dollars (resulting in an inflation-adjusted PIA of $3,253).

So, just to confirm for my own benefit - if I want to understand the purchasing power of my benefit while assuming price and wage inflation, I should use the #s in your model. If I want to understand the actual amount that will be 'on my paycheck' but also assume that there will be wage and price inflation, I can use the amounts reported in Anypia, or I can take the PIA estimate in your model under column V and apply a COLA adjustment upward?
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Washingtonhoya wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:47 pm - Wage inflation increases: This inflates the SSWB, and thereby your AIME, so the annual FRA goes *up* (as seen in column Y under the hidden 'Main' tab)
- Price inflation increases: This doesn't affect the FRA, but to ensure that we are expressing the benefit in today dollars, your model adjusts the FRA *down* (column Z in the 'Main' tab)

For those willing to dig under the hood, you can see that the model is consistent with Anypia even under inflationary scenarios. You just have to disentangle the effect of wage inflation from the effect of CPI inflation. For example - if you enter the same exact data from Sample 1 in Anypia into your model, and then run Anypia with the assumption of zero benefit increase and wage increases based on the 2019 Trustees Report Alternative II, you can see that their PIA ($3,428.80) is virtually identical to the non-inflation adjusted PIA in your model (cell V71 under 'Main' = $3,428.05). In other words, your model takes into account the wage increases, just as they do, and then it deflates the PIA back to current-year dollars (resulting in an inflation-adjusted PIA of $3,253).
Your explanation of what my calculator does is much more eloquent than I've ever managed to accomplish!
So, just to confirm for my own benefit - if I want to understand the purchasing power of my benefit while assuming price and wage inflation, I should use the #s in your model. If I want to understand the actual amount that will be 'on my paycheck' but also assume that there will be wage and price inflation, I can use the amounts reported in Anypia, or I can take the PIA estimate in your model under column V and apply a COLA adjustment upward?
Yes, I think you understand. My output is always relative to Sept 2019 dollar ("today"). Anypia output is indeed always "the number on your check"** at the time you receive it in the future.

By the way, you may be interested in this post: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=311103

Neurosphere

** This asterisk is because I fear the wrath of sscritic (even though he may no longer post here), and must state that of course there are other items that can come out of the "check" at various times for various people, such as medicare premiums. :wink: and wait, are there even checks anymore? lol. I seriously have no idea what happens if one does not have an account to deposit SS benefits into! :D
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Washingtonhoya wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:47 pm For example - if you enter the same exact data from Sample 1 in Anypia into your model, and then run Anypia with the assumption of zero benefit increase and wage increases based on the 2019 Trustees Report Alternative II, you can see that their PIA ($3,428.80) is virtually identical to the non-inflation adjusted PIA in your model (cell V71 under 'Main' = $3,428.05).
Wait, I'm off by 75 cents? How can you trust my calculator, if so??! Or, anypia must have an error! Ok, it probably doesn't (but it DID at one point, and I helped them fix it). But I'm only half joking. I did spend a lot of time trying to make sure all the rounding rules and other rules were accurate (and sscritic was gracious enough to help), and am disappointed I'm don't exactly match anypia. But that said, I don't feel like trying to figure out where we differ. I'll take "within a dollar" as good enough for non-government work. ;)
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Washingtonhoya »

Yes, I think you understand. My output is always relative to Sept 2019 dollar ("today"). Anypia output is indeed always "the number on your check"** at the time you receive it in the future.
Following up here, let's say that I figure out that my FRA @67 is $32,000, assuming wage and CPI inflation consistent with the Trustees' intermediate assumptions. (Option 2 in your model). If I wanted to understand what my check would be at that age, is the following calculation correct?

Code: Select all

$32,000 * (CPI at age 67) / (CPI in 2019)
When I do that, the number ends up somewhat higher than the un-adjusted FRA in your model. I assume that's because your FRA estimate does not include COLA adjustments after age 61, whereas the estimate above does. Is that right?
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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Washingtonhoya wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:34 am
Yes, I think you understand. My output is always relative to Sept 2019 dollar ("today"). Anypia output is indeed always "the number on your check"** at the time you receive it in the future.
Following up here, let's say that I figure out that my FRA @67 is $32,000, assuming wage and CPI inflation consistent with the Trustees' intermediate assumptions. (Option 2 in your model). If I wanted to understand what my check would be at that age, is the following calculation correct?

Code: Select all

$32,000 * (CPI at age 67) / (CPI in 2019)
When I do that, the number ends up somewhat higher than the un-adjusted FRA in your model. I assume that's because your FRA estimate does not include COLA adjustments after age 61, whereas the estimate above does. Is that right?
How far off was your number? I'm using 250.2 for my "2019". It's the average of the Q3 CPI-W, e.g. July, Aug, Sept 2019. So yes, if you have determined $32,000 to be your PIA, your formula is correct. But wait, remember that your benefit at age 67 will be based on the CPI adjustment which came from 3rd quarter of the previous year. So maybe you should be using "CPI at age 66" to figure out your actual benefit at age 67. Perhaps that's why you're off?

My calculator does take cola adjustments into account. Remember than when adjusting a benefit to today's dollars, the colas cancel out. If one claims at age 62 and calculates that value in today's dollar, the benefit at age 63 doesn't change (relative to today's dollars). Put another way, once the PIA (i.e. benefit at FRA) is determined from earnings and the wage data at age 60, the PIA in 2019 dollars doesn't change no matter what inflation does. The PIA is based on wage inflation until age 60. After that it's "fixed", in a manner of speaking and doesn't change with respect to purchase power (e.g. 2019 dollars).
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
Washingtonhoya
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Washingtonhoya »

How far off was your number
If you assume a retiree born in 1985 who makes a constant $60K from 2007 through 2052 (i.e., starts working at 22 and retires at age 67) you get an inflation-adjusted PIA of $32,924 (i.e., in 2019 dollars). If you glance at the 'Main' tab under column Y, that represents $65,904 in un-adjusted dollars.

However, if you take the $32,924 and apply the math above, you get:

Current-year PIA * CPI @67 / CPI today =

$32,924 * 584.2 / 250.2 = $76,875

In other words, higher than the $65,904. I believe that's because the $32,924 figure is deflated based on the CPI at age 61 (500.82). So if you want to bring it back up to your paycheck post-61, you need to apply additional inflation to account for COLA.

Right?
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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Washingtonhoya wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:42 am
How far off was your number
If you assume a retiree born in 1985 who makes a constant $60K from 2007 through 2052 (i.e., starts working at 22 and retires at age 67) you get an inflation-adjusted PIA of $32,924 (i.e., in 2019 dollars). If you glance at the 'Main' tab under column Y, that represents $65,904 in un-adjusted dollars.

However, if you take the $32,924 and apply the math above, you get:

Current-year PIA * CPI @67 / CPI today =

$32,924 * 584.2 / 250.2 = $76,875

In other words, higher than the $65,904. I believe that's because the $32,924 figure is deflated based on the CPI at age 61 (500.82). So if you want to bring it back up to your paycheck post-61, you need to apply additional inflation to account for COLA.

Right?
You are correct. The $65,904 in your example is the PIA as calculated at age 62. Also note that in your example, none of the earnings after 56 affect the benefit.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
MedDev
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by MedDev »

Love this tool! It doesn't load cleanly into Google Sheets. Any suggestions before I try to track down the problem? Thanks!
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by FiveK »

MedDev wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:37 pm Love this tool! It doesn't load cleanly into Google Sheets. Any suggestions before I try to track down the problem? Thanks!
Some things just don't work as well in Sheets, LibreOffice Calc, etc., as they do in Excel. That might be the case here.

A similar spreadsheet (that may have similar Sheets problems) is the 'SocialSecurity' tab of the personal finance toolbox spreadsheet.

There is also a web tool for calculating a single person's benefits, Social Security Calculator, and a web tool that evaluates SS benefit start dates, particularly useful for a couple: Open Social Security: Free, Open-Source Social Security Calculator.
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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

MedDev wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:37 pm Love this tool! It doesn't load cleanly into Google Sheets. Any suggestions before I try to track down the problem? Thanks!
Unfortunately, I don't have time to make a tool which works on all platforms. Excel is free at office.com I think? I don't know what formulas or formating works across multiple different software. :( But if anyone wants to translate this version for their own preferred spreadsheet program, that would be great! :D
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
MedDev
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by MedDev »

I'll try and fix it for Google sheets and if I can I'll post. Does your sheet use macros?
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Silk McCue »

MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:28 am I'll try and fix it for Google sheets and if I can I'll post. Does your sheet use macros?
It does not according to this post on another thread last year.

search.php?keywords=macros&t=231913&sf=msgonly

Cheers
MedDev
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by MedDev »

neurosphere wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:10 pm
MedDev wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:37 pm Love this tool! It doesn't load cleanly into Google Sheets. Any suggestions before I try to track down the problem? Thanks!
Unfortunately, I don't have time to make a tool which works on all platforms. Excel is free at office.com I think? I don't know what formulas or formating works across multiple different software. :( But if anyone wants to translate this version for their own preferred spreadsheet program, that would be great! :D
Great! To do this and understand what is causing the issue I need to unlock the protection. Needs a password. Can you provide?
MedDev
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by MedDev »

MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:46 am
neurosphere wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:10 pm
MedDev wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:37 pm Love this tool! It doesn't load cleanly into Google Sheets. Any suggestions before I try to track down the problem? Thanks!
Unfortunately, I don't have time to make a tool which works on all platforms. Excel is free at office.com I think? I don't know what formulas or formating works across multiple different software. :( But if anyone wants to translate this version for their own preferred spreadsheet program, that would be great! :D
Great! To do this and understand what is causing the issue I need to unlock the protection. Needs a password. Can you provide?
Seems like it is a problem with VLookup. They are treated differently between the two...so just need to figure out how to modify the Excel method to the Google sheets method!
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:21 pm Seems like it is a problem with VLookup. They are treated differently between the two...so just need to figure out how to modify the Excel method to the Google sheets method!
I think excels default for the last variable in vlookup is FALSE, while it is TRUE in sheets? If we set the formula to explicitly list FALSE, might that fix it? E.g. in this formula, VLOOKUP(search_key, range, index, [is_sorted]), excel defaults to not-sorted, while Sheets is sorted. Although, I don't know which column(s) it expects to be sorted, so maybe the data is already sorted and this is not the problem.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Ok, so now you have me trouble shooting sheets, which I said I would not do. :)

I think it's a problem with the "LARGE" function used to calculate only the earnings from the top 35 years, in column "S" of the "Main" sheet?
Last edited by neurosphere on Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
MedDev
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by MedDev »

MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:21 pm
MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:46 am
neurosphere wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:10 pm
MedDev wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:37 pm Love this tool! It doesn't load cleanly into Google Sheets. Any suggestions before I try to track down the problem? Thanks!
Unfortunately, I don't have time to make a tool which works on all platforms. Excel is free at office.com I think? I don't know what formulas or formating works across multiple different software. :( But if anyone wants to translate this version for their own preferred spreadsheet program, that would be great! :D
Great! To do this and understand what is causing the issue I need to unlock the protection. Needs a password. Can you provide?
Seems like it is a problem with VLookup. They are treated differently between the two...so just need to figure out how to modify the Excel method to the Google sheets method!
Not Vlookup!

When you use the "Large" function in Google Sheets it doesn't have the same functionality unless you add "ArrayFormula" first which is a unique function in Google Sheets. So this is how you fix for Google Sheets: 1) Unhide the Main sheet, 2) Go to "Main" sheet, 3) Starting in cell S39, it should read ...=ArrayFormula(Sum(Large(... 4) Just pull and fill down to S122, 5) rehide Main sheet if you like. 6) Done!

Excel assumes an array with "Large" while Google needs you to define that it is an array calculation. Again, sweet tool and thanks!
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:47 pm
MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:21 pm
MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:46 am
neurosphere wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:10 pm
MedDev wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:37 pm Love this tool! It doesn't load cleanly into Google Sheets. Any suggestions before I try to track down the problem? Thanks!
Unfortunately, I don't have time to make a tool which works on all platforms. Excel is free at office.com I think? I don't know what formulas or formating works across multiple different software. :( But if anyone wants to translate this version for their own preferred spreadsheet program, that would be great! :D
Great! To do this and understand what is causing the issue I need to unlock the protection. Needs a password. Can you provide?
Seems like it is a problem with VLookup. They are treated differently between the two...so just need to figure out how to modify the Excel method to the Google sheets method!
Not Vlookup!

When you use the "Large" function in Google Sheets it doesn't have the same functionality unless you add "ArrayFormula" first which is a unique function in Google Sheets. So this is how you fix for Google Sheets: 1) Unhide the Main sheet, 2) Go to "Main" sheet, 3) Starting in cell S39, it should read ...=ArrayFormula(Sum(Large(... 4) Just pull and fill down to S122, 5) rehide Main sheet if you like. 6) Done!

Excel assumes an array with "Large" while Google needs you to define that it is an array calculation. Again, sweet tool and thanks!
lol. we posted this at the same time. :)
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by Alan S. »

Note that those born in 1960 will find that this estimator does not reflect the huge reduction in average wage income for 2020 due to the pandemic. Details here: https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewco ... prc_papers

If born in 1961, there should be some recovery in AWI depending on the number of people with jobs come next January.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by MedDev »

neurosphere wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:46 pm Ok, so now you have me trouble shooting sheets, which I said I would not do. :)

I think it's a problem with the "LARGE" function used to calculate only the earnings from the top 35 years, in column "S" of the "Main" sheet?
Yes! See my message below. Simple fix!
MedDev
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by MedDev »

neurosphere wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:48 pm
MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:47 pm
MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:21 pm
MedDev wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:46 am
neurosphere wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:10 pm

Unfortunately, I don't have time to make a tool which works on all platforms. Excel is free at office.com I think? I don't know what formulas or formating works across multiple different software. :( But if anyone wants to translate this version for their own preferred spreadsheet program, that would be great! :D
Great! To do this and understand what is causing the issue I need to unlock the protection. Needs a password. Can you provide?
Seems like it is a problem with VLookup. They are treated differently between the two...so just need to figure out how to modify the Excel method to the Google sheets method!
Not Vlookup!

When you use the "Large" function in Google Sheets it doesn't have the same functionality unless you add "ArrayFormula" first which is a unique function in Google Sheets. So this is how you fix for Google Sheets: 1) Unhide the Main sheet, 2) Go to "Main" sheet, 3) Starting in cell S39, it should read ...=ArrayFormula(Sum(Large(... 4) Just pull and fill down to S122, 5) rehide Main sheet if you like. 6) Done!

Excel assumes an array with "Large" while Google needs you to define that it is an array calculation. Again, sweet tool and thanks!
lol. we posted this at the same time. :)
Super simple fix! Odd that Google requires you to define it as an array... Sorry to drag you into this, but you now have a Google Sheets version you can also post. Think of all the extra cash this will generate! :)
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Alan S. wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:50 pm Note that those born in 1960 will find that this estimator does not reflect the huge reduction in average wage income for 2020 due to the pandemic. Details here: https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewco ... prc_papers

If born in 1961, there should be some recovery in AWI depending on the number of people with jobs come next January.
Actually, it does, sorta. The calculator had three main purposes 1) provide an easy way to enter in desired earnings history and future assumptions 2) provide a graphical output to illustrate things like bend points, earnings after age 60, delayed credits, etc and 3) allow one to use any set of assumptions for future CPI and AGI changes. :)

If one goes to the "inflation assumptions" tab, one can select any estimate desired for the change in average wages (peach box, "AWI") and then select option "3" on the "earnings and main output" page to select that you want to use the use-entered inflation assumptions. Note that this will set ALL future wage changes to the entered value. But for those who are 60 this year, there is only one year remaining to which the AWI changes can apply, and thus it should give accurate benefits estimates for a 1960-born individual who enters their own 2020 wage-index assumption.

Note that at one point I had let the use enter in ANY set of future estimates (i.e. year by year differences), but that was cumbersome to keep updated. For example one could have modeled a -20% decrease for the 2020 wage data and then +10 percent for 2021 to represent a rebound which might be relevant to a 59 year old. Maybe I should re-enable that level of granularity. Also, happy to have volunteers. :)

Note that I have never tested this spreadsheet with wage deflation (i.e. negative wage changes). Let's see what happens. :)
Last edited by neurosphere on Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

Ok, here is a version which should open and work in Google sheets. I suspect you may need to save a copy for yourself before you can enter your own data?

[Edit, the version above is now an old version as of November 2020]
Last edited by neurosphere on Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
longinvest
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by longinvest »

neurosphere wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:35 pm Ok, here is a version which should open and work in Google sheets. I suspect you may need to save a copy for yourself before you can enter your own data?

[Edit, I fixed some of the formatting. Also, saved it as a native sheets document rather than an excel document]
Neurosphere, I make several Sheets documents publicly available. I tell users to:
(1) Sign into their Google account (if not already signed in).
(2) Make a copy of the file as follows: File -> Make a copy...
(3) The copy is theirs to modify.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

longinvest wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:29 am
neurosphere wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:35 pm Ok, here is a version which should open and work in Google sheets. I suspect you may need to save a copy for yourself before you can enter your own data?

[Edit, I fixed some of the formatting. Also, saved it as a native sheets document rather than an excel document]
Neurosphere, I make several Sheets documents publicly available. I tell users to:
(1) Sign into their Google account (if not already signed in).
(2) Make a copy of the file as follows: File -> Make a copy...
(3) The copy is theirs to modify.
Good info longinvest.

FYI, the updated version (working draft) for 2021, which incorporates the CPI-W data from Q3 2020 and also the new 2019 wage data, is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I think I'll start a new post to announce it.

Note that I have not yet tested any portion of it! I simply updated with new inflation numbers and hope that I didn't break it in the process. :D
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Neurosphere's 2021 Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (updated with 2020 CPI-W and 2019 Wage data)

Post by neurosphere »

[Post merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

Hi all, here's the new update for 2021. It's updated to reflect all the necessary data released in 2020, and should be valid until fall of 2021.

Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

You should be able to save your own copy and enter in any set of earnings (and inflation) assumptions you would like.

Note that the SS Trustee assumptions for the future were released in April, and thus do NOT reflect any covid-related influence on the economy.

Also note that I have not yet kicked the tires, so consider this a work in progress!

I'll edit this post soon to include some links to previous threads which describe/explain this spreadsheet. I think I may have "skipped" a year in my naming system. From now on, I'm going to name the calculate for the most recent year for which the sswb (benefit and contributions base) is known. E.g. we know the SSWB for 2021 based on the 2019 data which was released in October 2020. :D
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by longinvest »

neurosphere wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:33 pm FYI, the updated version (working draft) for 2021, which incorporates the CPI-W data from Q3 2020 and also the new 2019 wage data, is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I think I'll start a new post to announce it.
Neurosphere, did you mean starting a new thread? If so, I suggest against it. Starting a new thread with every new version of your calculator invalidates all posts on other threads (and potentially wiki entries) that link to older versions of your calculator, instead of pointing users to its latest version. Note that I have referred to your calculator in other threads by linking to this specific thread.

I suggest (1) modifying the thread title by removing the "(2019 update)", making it generic for all versions and (2) adding a top section to your first post with a clear description of the tool and an up-to-date link to the latest (stable) version.

Eventually, you could even become a wiki editor and create a page for it.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

longinvest wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:00 pm
neurosphere wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:33 pm FYI, the updated version (working draft) for 2021, which incorporates the CPI-W data from Q3 2020 and also the new 2019 wage data, is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I think I'll start a new post to announce it.
Neurosphere, did you mean starting a new thread? If so, I suggest against it. Starting a new thread with every new version of your calculator invalidates all posts on other threads (and potentially wiki entries) that link to older versions of your calculator, instead of pointing users to its latest version. Note that I have referred to your calculator in other threads by linking to this specific thread.

I suggest (1) modifying the thread title by removing the "(2019 update)", making it generic for all versions and (2) adding a top section to your first post with a clear description of the tool and an up-to-date link to the latest (stable) version.

Eventually, you could even become a wiki editor and create a page for it.
Yes, I did mean to create a new thread or topic (topic is the right term I think), and already did. :( I actually didn't realize I could change the title of existing threads. Hmm. My thinking was that there are 100+ posts that refer to issues that no longer apply, and if someone new to the topic clicks in, they have to wade through a ton of irrelevant posts to find the latest/useful info?

What if I edit the first post of old topics to make clear there is a new topic for continued discussion and the latest versions?

Sigh. I will admit that this year has deadened my brain and is preventing me from thinking as nimbly as I might. And the only reason I finally got around to doing this update is because I took a vacation day from the hospital to devote to "hobbies" such as this one, which I had not previously been able to find time (or motivation) to do after a day at work. :(
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by LadyGeek »

^^^ No worries, I got this. Relax. I merged your new post into here and edited thread's title. As longinvest suggests, it's better to have a single thread with everything in one topic (the correct term, but is used interchangably with "thread").

If you want to change the thread title further, edit the Subject: line in Post #1.

Remember that moderators are here to help. If you need assistance moving things around, just report the post using the ! in the top-right corner and explain what's needed.
longinvest wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:00 pm Eventually, you could even become a wiki editor and create a page for it.
That's one option.

neurosphere - PM me if you want to be a wiki editor. Alternatively, post what you'd like to say in a wiki page and an editor can create the page for you.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by neurosphere »

LadyGeek wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:18 pm ^^^ No worries, I got this. Relax. I merged your new post into here and edited thread's title. As longinvest suggests, it's better to have a single thread with everything in one topic (the correct term, but is used interchangably with "thread").

If you want to change the thread title further, edit the Subject: line in Post #1.

Remember that moderators are here to help. If you need assistance moving things around, just report the post using the ! in the top-right corner and explain what's needed.
Thanks so MUCH!! I didn't know to ask for help, because I wasn't sure what help I needed/wanted. :wink:
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator

Post by neurosphere »

Someone in another topic asked me what changes were made with this update...

The only changes were to include the new annual inflation data. That is, we now have the CPI data for 2000, and the wage data for 2019 (released in Oct 2020) which allows us to 1) put all the values in terms of Sept 2020 dollars and 2) we know the maximum taxable SS earnings for 2021 which makes any earnings estimates for 2021+ more accurate.

Oh, and in addition, I updated the inflation assumptions to include an option to use the April 2020 SS trustees "intermediate" (aka "best guess") future economic assumptions. However, those assumptions were essentially pre-covid, so they are kinda moot at this point. :(

Again, I have not yet had a chance to validate the updates. Typically, I need the newest version of "anypia" to fully test my spreadsheet, as it's the only official SS calculator that allows one to assume non-zero values for the two inflation parameters (CPI-W and wage inflation) which determine benefits. Anypia will not be updated with new 2020 economic data for a few months.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator

Post by Rainmaker41 »

neurosphere-

Thank you very much much for this excellent tool.

I previously created my own spreadsheet to accomplish the same objective, but it is more clumsy, and has less depth and polish. No inflation and wage index increase projections in mine.

I updated the bend points and wage index values in my sheet using the values in yours (which you took from published sources), and I am pleased to say that the resulting calculated values for PIA, age 67, 70, etc. benefits were consistent between sheets for the default no inflation and so forth model. So, our formulas got to the same place. I will think of that as me checking my sheet is correct by trusting yours, but I suppose you could think of it as a small datapoint attesting to the accuracy and completeness of your own work.

The one different feature I have is a calculation of reduced benefits. For my purposes I have a section with the benefit results showing the scheduled rates reduced by 23% as under current law. I just have that for my own planning (read: wild guess) purposes, as my wife and I will not reach Social Security age until a couple of decades after 2034. I do not mean to in any way criticize.

:sharebeer

Thanks again.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (2019 Update)

Post by longinvest »

Thanks Neurosphere for your awesome contribution.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator

Post by LadyGeek »

We have an existing wiki article for member contributions. I have added this thread to the wiki: Social Security: member contributions

If there's enough interest, we can always create a dedicated wiki article.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator

Post by longinvest »

LadyGeek wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:20 pm We have an existing wiki article for member contributions. I have added this thread to the wiki: Social Security: member contributions
Great! I wasn't aware of that page.
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator

Post by neurosphere »

by the way, "anypia" aka the "detailed" calculator was just released by SSA:

https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/anypia/anypia.html

Hopefully I'll get some time to troubleshoot my spreadsheet against "official" numbers. And this is the point where I'm obligated to congratulate myself for having discovered errors in a previous version of anypia, for some sets of assumptions. It took a little work for me to convince them there was an error. As a "reward" they asked me to beta test the next two versions prior to release. :oops:
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator

Post by neurosphere »

neurosphere wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:39 pm Someone in another topic asked me what changes were made with this update...

The only changes were to include the new annual inflation data. That is, we now have the CPI data for 2020, and the wage data for 2019 (released in Oct 2020) which allows us to 1) put all the values in terms of Sept 2020 dollars and 2) we know the maximum taxable SS earnings for 2021 which makes any earnings estimates for 2021+ more accurate.

Oh, and in addition, I updated the inflation assumptions to include an option to use the April 2020 SS trustees "intermediate" (aka "best guess") future economic assumptions. However, those assumptions were essentially pre-covid, so they are kinda moot at this point. :(

Again, I have not yet had a chance to validate the updates. Typically, I need the newest version of "anypia" to fully test my spreadsheet, as it's the only official SS calculator that allows one to assume non-zero values for the two inflation parameters (CPI-W and wage inflation) which determine benefits. Anypia will not be updated with new 2020 economic data for a few months.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes" (even in taxable accounts).
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