Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
To add a different perspective, it is worth asking if renting or buying is the right choice for your needs. While typically people think of apartments when thinking of renting, townhomes and SFH also get rented too. Given the concerns about price, repair costs, age of unit, desired location, etc., it may wind up being better to rent a SFH instead of owning it.
NY Times has a rent vs. buy calculator. Unfortunately that will be paywalled unless you are subscriber. Someone on the financialindependence subreddit turned this into an Excel spreadsheet. So that should provide another way to evaluate this. Will need to do a bit of research to determine what values to fill in. Also would suggest trying ranges of values. There is uncertainty in any estimate and a model will only be useful if it takes that into account. Just because there has been a persistent trend in the recent past doesn't mean it will continue.
NY Times has a rent vs. buy calculator. Unfortunately that will be paywalled unless you are subscriber. Someone on the financialindependence subreddit turned this into an Excel spreadsheet. So that should provide another way to evaluate this. Will need to do a bit of research to determine what values to fill in. Also would suggest trying ranges of values. There is uncertainty in any estimate and a model will only be useful if it takes that into account. Just because there has been a persistent trend in the recent past doesn't mean it will continue.
"Anyone who claims to understand quantum theory is either lying or crazy" -- Richard Feynman
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
A piece in the Seattle Times by Jon Talton this weekend:BreadandButter wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:36 am Bellevue vs. Seattle. “The Rise of Bellevue”
https://www.geekwire.com/special-covera ... -bellevue/
https://www.seattletimes.com/pacific-nw ... mpetition/
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
If it were more like 2 days, I might be tempted to go with somewhere on the Kitsap peninsula, with ferry access. I think that Bremerton has a fast 30-minute ferry. I don't know about school quality on that side of the Sound, but houses are certainly less expensive.barnaclebob wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:40 pmGiven its only 3 days a week, look further north like the shoreline area and deal with the traffic. The richmond beach area has a lot of nice options, many with good views.pnw_guy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:15 pmIt's hybrid. 3 days a week in office (Monday, Tuesday, & Thursday).jaqenhghar wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:33 pm OP, for the job located near the Space Needle, how many days in the week does the person need to go into work? Or is there an option for hybrid work?
- quantAndHold
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Not necessarily, especially not in markets where the buildable land is constrained, like Seattle’s is. Seattle isn’t someplace where they’re just going to build a bunch of new housing close to downtown. Because they can’t. So as people come to the city for work and need a place to live, the close in properties become more valuable. Throughout my investing career, it’s the VHCOL real estate that’s propped up the rest of my portfolio.pnw_guy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:45 pmIsn't real estate generally a subpar investment compared to the stock market? That's been our assumption, so we've been thinking about the opportunity cost of spending money on an expensive house when we could instead use it to invest in the market and generate a larger nest egg.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:34 pmOne of the mistakes a lot of people make is to treat a home purchase like a consumable. This isn't like buying a fancy car. At some point, like when you FIRE, you sell the house and get that money back. In the meantime, you're living right next to work, in one of the best parts of Seattle.pnw_guy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:09 pmWhile we like the Eastside better than Seattle proper for various reasons (it's cleaner, has amazing schools, etc.). If money wasn't an object and we were going to buy in in Seattle proper, I think we'd buy in Queen Anne. The problem is that single family homes are crazy expensive and we have FIRE ambitions. So the question is whether scrimping for a 2 or 3 million dollar house is wise. On the other hand, maybe over the next 10 years Seattle housing prices will continue to climb and we'll look like geniuses for buying while we have the chance.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:54 pm Queen Anne if you can afford it. It’s a lovely walkable neighborhood close to everything. If we had stayed in Seattle, we would have eventually bought a place there. Magnolia, Phinney/Greenwood, Wallingford if you can’t afford Queen Anne. Possibly Ballard or Greenlake, although that’s getting a bit far away.
You might consider Magnolia. It’s cheaper, quieter and more suburban, but still an easy one bus commute to Seattle Center.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
It's interesting how much attention the Eastside is getting, as I wasn't aware. It makes sense though, they can expand more whereas Seattle is already fully occupied, kind of like San Francisco.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Our Eastside home has appreciated ~180% in a decade or so, which sounds great until you realize the SP 500 is up ~300% since we bought our house.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:38 amNot necessarily, especially not in markets where the buildable land is constrained, like Seattle’s is. Seattle isn’t someplace where they’re just going to build a bunch of new housing close to downtown. Because they can’t. So as people come to the city for work and need a place to live, the close in properties become more valuable. Throughout my investing career, it’s the VHCOL real estate that’s propped up the rest of my portfolio.pnw_guy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:45 pmIsn't real estate generally a subpar investment compared to the stock market? That's been our assumption, so we've been thinking about the opportunity cost of spending money on an expensive house when we could instead use it to invest in the market and generate a larger nest egg.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:34 pmOne of the mistakes a lot of people make is to treat a home purchase like a consumable. This isn't like buying a fancy car. At some point, like when you FIRE, you sell the house and get that money back. In the meantime, you're living right next to work, in one of the best parts of Seattle.pnw_guy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:09 pmWhile we like the Eastside better than Seattle proper for various reasons (it's cleaner, has amazing schools, etc.). If money wasn't an object and we were going to buy in in Seattle proper, I think we'd buy in Queen Anne. The problem is that single family homes are crazy expensive and we have FIRE ambitions. So the question is whether scrimping for a 2 or 3 million dollar house is wise. On the other hand, maybe over the next 10 years Seattle housing prices will continue to climb and we'll look like geniuses for buying while we have the chance.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:54 pm Queen Anne if you can afford it. It’s a lovely walkable neighborhood close to everything. If we had stayed in Seattle, we would have eventually bought a place there. Magnolia, Phinney/Greenwood, Wallingford if you can’t afford Queen Anne. Possibly Ballard or Greenlake, although that’s getting a bit far away.
You might consider Magnolia. It’s cheaper, quieter and more suburban, but still an easy one bus commute to Seattle Center.
It's a bit apples-to-oranges though, as a house provides physical (and emotional) utility but is much less liquid with significant transaction costs.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Yeah, one thing I don't understand the OP is why they're so eager to buy a house, let alone a SFH. What's wrong with renting, or other options such as condo / townhouse, especially when they seem to care about the size of their equities portfolio? Their plan does not seem very consistent to me.LeftCoastIV wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:00 pm Our Eastside home has appreciated ~180% in a decade or so, which sounds great until you realize the SP 500 is up ~300% since we bought our house.
It's a bit apples-to-oranges though, as a house provides physical (and emotional) utility but is much less liquid with significant transaction costs.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Getting from the ferry to Seattle Center requires a walk up-hill and a bus ride, though. Good exercise, but kind of a PITA in the rain.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
There’s also the amount of leverage to account for. We lived in Seattle (Magnolia) for 4 years, paid about the same amount for PITI and maintenance as we would have paid for rent on a similar place. When it was all over, the amount we deposited back into our bank account when we sold the house was about double what our down payment plus closing costs was.LeftCoastIV wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:00 pmOur Eastside home has appreciated ~180% in a decade or so, which sounds great until you realize the SP 500 is up ~300% since we bought our house.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:38 amNot necessarily, especially not in markets where the buildable land is constrained, like Seattle’s is. Seattle isn’t someplace where they’re just going to build a bunch of new housing close to downtown. Because they can’t. So as people come to the city for work and need a place to live, the close in properties become more valuable. Throughout my investing career, it’s the VHCOL real estate that’s propped up the rest of my portfolio.pnw_guy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:45 pmIsn't real estate generally a subpar investment compared to the stock market? That's been our assumption, so we've been thinking about the opportunity cost of spending money on an expensive house when we could instead use it to invest in the market and generate a larger nest egg.quantAndHold wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:34 pmOne of the mistakes a lot of people make is to treat a home purchase like a consumable. This isn't like buying a fancy car. At some point, like when you FIRE, you sell the house and get that money back. In the meantime, you're living right next to work, in one of the best parts of Seattle.pnw_guy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:09 pm
While we like the Eastside better than Seattle proper for various reasons (it's cleaner, has amazing schools, etc.). If money wasn't an object and we were going to buy in in Seattle proper, I think we'd buy in Queen Anne. The problem is that single family homes are crazy expensive and we have FIRE ambitions. So the question is whether scrimping for a 2 or 3 million dollar house is wise. On the other hand, maybe over the next 10 years Seattle housing prices will continue to climb and we'll look like geniuses for buying while we have the chance.
You might consider Magnolia. It’s cheaper, quieter and more suburban, but still an easy one bus commute to Seattle Center.
It's a bit apples-to-oranges though, as a house provides physical (and emotional) utility but is much less liquid with significant transaction costs.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Unfortunately, I think you already have an answer. Everything here has become prohibitively expensive, inventory is abysmal, traffic is horrendous, and most school districts aren't great outside of a handful of zip codes. You'll have to sacrifice something from somewhere or pay several million for a home.
If it were my money on your income and situation, I'd buy a home in the Kingsgate/Juanita areas. A few times a week, make the commute to downtown; it's about as bad as it will be anywhere else you live. Nice homes can be had for under a million and the commute to/from there is better than if you were in Renton.
If it were my money on your income and situation, I'd buy a home in the Kingsgate/Juanita areas. A few times a week, make the commute to downtown; it's about as bad as it will be anywhere else you live. Nice homes can be had for under a million and the commute to/from there is better than if you were in Renton.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Id also avoid choosing anything requiring ferries. The ferry system has had issues with cancelled boats due to breakage or lack of crews. Maybe this will get better after covid, but a cancelled ferry really sucks if you need to get across at a certain time.
Mark |
Somewhere in WA State
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Another vote for checking out Magnolia more carefully. A bit less expensive than Queen Anne (but still crazy expensive) and a better chance of getting a house with a decent yard. But the lot size varies tremendously. Check out some of the big lots on 36th Ave. W, for example. Teardowns have resulted in some newer construction, but be prepared to pay.
Seattle Public Schools institutionally are a bit of a disaster in my opinion (first-hand experience), but like everywhere there are very good teachers and some schools seem better than others. Magnolia has a K-8 and two elementary schools. The neighborhood is a good one for kids to grow up in. Our kids have the run of the neighborhood, but they know there are "eyes" everywhere...All the parents seem to know all the kids! As you know, it's a super easy commute to the Space Needle area. So the commute is great, the neighborhood feel for raising kids is great, but cost of course is still an issue and I would think long and hard about the schools.
Seattle Public Schools institutionally are a bit of a disaster in my opinion (first-hand experience), but like everywhere there are very good teachers and some schools seem better than others. Magnolia has a K-8 and two elementary schools. The neighborhood is a good one for kids to grow up in. Our kids have the run of the neighborhood, but they know there are "eyes" everywhere...All the parents seem to know all the kids! As you know, it's a super easy commute to the Space Needle area. So the commute is great, the neighborhood feel for raising kids is great, but cost of course is still an issue and I would think long and hard about the schools.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Pick two:
- Affordable
- Large lot with private undeveloped land
- Near many other things (that don’t have large lots)
- quantAndHold
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
In Seattle, you only get to pick one of those, not two.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Brutal. But this is probably the truthquantAndHold wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:20 pmIn Seattle, you only get to pick one of those, not two.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
So just rent a house with a yard.
And try out the suggestion of using Link light rail + Monorail from downtown to Seattle Center.
Since Eastside light rail isn't ready yet, try renting a house with yard for awhile.
Many Eastside commuters find express transit from park and ride lots to be satisfactory, but you would probably have to try it.
And try out the suggestion of using Link light rail + Monorail from downtown to Seattle Center.
Since Eastside light rail isn't ready yet, try renting a house with yard for awhile.
Many Eastside commuters find express transit from park and ride lots to be satisfactory, but you would probably have to try it.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
This might be a useful resource if you're interested getting an idea of transit reach vs commute time. I put a pin at the space needle, and here is an area within a 35 minute transit ride:
https://www.mapnificent.net
https://www.mapnificent.net
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Nice map. Those are going to be ideal times, though, not typical times, Especially from the Eastside, it’s going to be a bus ride in traffic that’s >35 minutes more often than not. And doesn’t include getting to the park and ride, waiting for the bus, then the walk on the other end. For the eastside routes this morning, Google Maps is showing 50-55 minutes from Bellevue to Seattle Center, and 1:10 from Redmond, not including getting from home to the park and ride.MrBeaver wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:39 pm This might be a useful resource if you're interested getting an idea of transit reach vs commute time. I put a pin at the space needle, and here is an area within a 35 minute transit ride:
https://www.mapnificent.net
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Imo if they have to commute to the Space Needle area 2~3x a week then the islands & Eastside are ruled out, as the commute would be too long.
Desirable or not, their realistic options are limited to Seattle proper, or the North / South side.
Desirable or not, their realistic options are limited to Seattle proper, or the North / South side.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
That could be terrific.pnw_guy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:37 pmAdditional piece of new info: My company offers a shuttle from the ferry terminal to the office near the space needle
How often does it run/at what times of the day?
BTW, I miss Seattle (did my PhD at UW and yes, we've been back...).
DH came to love it there, too.
RM
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
If your company provides a shuttle from the ferry, surely they must provide shuttles from other places as well.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
This feels like a "you're gonna have to make tough choices" kind of situation. You're looking for a unicorn - SFH with a yard, recently built, close to downtown with a short commute, and at a good price.
Personally, I opted to keep renting (my circumstances are a bit different, as I'm single and WFH, but some of my criteria are close to yours - I like newer homes, I want a yard, I want somewhere quiet and I don't want to be in the middle of nowhere, not do I want to be downtown anywhere).
If I were you, I'd probably keep renting, seeing as your time horizon is short-ish and you're pursuing FIRE. If that's not an option, I'd focus on commuting by ferry. Can get a bit long, yes, but so much better than spending the same amount of time in a car. Since the commuting partner's company has a private shuttle from the ferry terminal to the office. I'd take 40 minutes gazing at the water while someone else is driving over being stuck on I-5 any day.
So Bainbridge, or the Kitsap peninsula. Not entirely sure how expensive RE is on the peninsula, though, but it's worth a look. It's also incredibly beautiful.
Personally, I opted to keep renting (my circumstances are a bit different, as I'm single and WFH, but some of my criteria are close to yours - I like newer homes, I want a yard, I want somewhere quiet and I don't want to be in the middle of nowhere, not do I want to be downtown anywhere).
If I were you, I'd probably keep renting, seeing as your time horizon is short-ish and you're pursuing FIRE. If that's not an option, I'd focus on commuting by ferry. Can get a bit long, yes, but so much better than spending the same amount of time in a car. Since the commuting partner's company has a private shuttle from the ferry terminal to the office. I'd take 40 minutes gazing at the water while someone else is driving over being stuck on I-5 any day.
So Bainbridge, or the Kitsap peninsula. Not entirely sure how expensive RE is on the peninsula, though, but it's worth a look. It's also incredibly beautiful.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
A possibility is buying a SFH in one of the Shoreline neighborhoods near the Metro E Line which runs straight to the Space Needle. Shoreline has good schools - we moved to Richmond Beach from Seattle specifically for the schools and rented for 4 years (saved up $ for down payment) before buying a SFH a bit east of that area. You'd want to live walking distance but not too close to the E line as there is more craziness near Aurora Ave. You can find a large house with yard and garage for around $1M up here (except Richmond Beach/Innis Arden). The E is solid transportation but you need to be ready to deal with the craziness of the passengers on that route.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Hmm, the Metro E RapidRide bus replaced the notorious 358 bus which was a crazy druggie & psycho bus. General consensus was that the 358 route number was off by one. I'm assuming the clientele for the new E Line hasn't changed much...Minpinchipo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:29 pm A possibility is buying a SFH in one of the Shoreline neighborhoods near the Metro E Line which runs straight to the Space Needle. Shoreline has good schools - we moved to Richmond Beach from Seattle specifically for the schools and rented for 4 years (saved up $ for down payment) before buying a SFH a bit east of that area. You'd want to live walking distance but not too close to the E line as there is more craziness near Aurora Ave. You can find a large house with yard and garage for around $1M up here (except Richmond Beach/Innis Arden). The E is solid transportation but you need to be ready to deal with the craziness of the passengers on that route.
A bus/light-rail commute from the burbs is certainly doable if you're young (i did it for 25 years myself from Bothell via ST 522) but it's certainly not fun or fast. And in recent years it got more & more unbearable. Think Tokyo Subway packed but for 1 hour instead of 15 minutes. No room to use a laptop. The old commuter rule of 'Keep quiet so other people can get something done" doesn't seem to apply anymore. In recent (pre-covid) years i was using an N95 mask and earplugs every day, long before masks become popular! I think the other folks thought i was crazy back then. Thank goodness I'm telecommuting full-time these days and rarely have to wear a mask anymore.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Nice. As RM suggested, confirm that the schedule works for you, and be aware of recent ferry service disruptions. Hopefully they'll be resolved in time, but getting stranded on the mainland wouldn't be ideal.
Happy hunting!
Yeah, when the E line was my most direct route to work I adjusted my sleep schedule to take the 355.Minpinchipo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:29 pm The E is solid transportation but you need to be ready to deal with the craziness of the passengers on that route.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
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Last edited by AerialWombat on Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
You missed some updates maybe six posts up, but I stand by my assessment: "Good exercise, but kind of a PITA in the rain."AerialWombat wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:30 pm It’s not that bad, unless one has physical impairments.
Alternatively, OP could budget for an Uber to the Space Needle and back from Colman Dock. Even 3x a week, this is probably cheaper than buying a house in Queen Anne.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
This thread is now in the Personal Consumer Issues forum (where to live).
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
drk wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:26 pmNice. As RM suggested, confirm that the schedule works for you, and be aware of recent ferry service disruptions. Hopefully they'll be resolved in time, but getting stranded on the mainland wouldn't be ideal.
Happy hunting!
Yeah, when the E line was my most direct route to work I adjusted my sleep schedule to take the 355.Minpinchipo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:29 pm The E is solid transportation but you need to be ready to deal with the craziness of the passengers on that route.
Last edited by pnw_guy on Fri Dec 30, 2022 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Yikes. 2.2M-3M even for a $400K household income is huge. Looking at 10K a month in mortgage - and who's to say both partners will want to continue working for 30 years?
FWIW, similar situation myself.
Maybe just rent, and pray prices go down if inventory increases post covid?
FWIW, similar situation myself.
Maybe just rent, and pray prices go down if inventory increases post covid?
Last edited by m@ver1ck on Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- quantAndHold
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Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
I had a coworker that lived on Bainbridge. He rode his bike, because biking was faster than that shuttle. It still took him about an hour and a half door to door.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
We aren't going to do something crazy like spend 3M on a house. We don't make enough money for that.m@ver1ck wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:22 pm Yikes. 2.2M-3M even for a $400K household income is huge. Looking at 10K a month in mortgage - and who's to say both partners will want to continue working for 30 years?
FWIW, similar situation myself.
Maybe just rent, and pray prices go down if inventory increases post covid?
I could see us spending $800K or $900K. Seems like we could buy an ok house house in West Seattle for that price or a pretty nice house in Bremerton.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
Hard to say exactly because you haven’t given a budget and Seattle is bonkers, as you know. If focusing on value/affordability I’d say Crown Hill, Loyal Heights, or Greenwood. I used to ride the D or 28 and found them decent despite Seattle traffic. The 18x for Loyal Heights I think.
ETA oh you just gave a budget, sorry. Might be priced out of those hoods unless you’re willing to splurge, or find a small 2br, or take a fixer/something dated, or some combo of those. Possibly a yardless standalone rectangle/townhome.
ETA oh you just gave a budget, sorry. Might be priced out of those hoods unless you’re willing to splurge, or find a small 2br, or take a fixer/something dated, or some combo of those. Possibly a yardless standalone rectangle/townhome.
Re: Seattleites: Where should we buy a single family home?
This for sure. You have to be sure you won’t be going to Redmond though because that would be one hell of a commute.drk wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:51 pmDo consider Magnolia. While the housing stock is older, it's typically well-maintained and updated. You'll be able to have a yard and a one-bus commute to Seattle Center without shelling out $2 million for a 3/2.
Come spring, anyway. There's no inventory right now.
Have you considered Bryant before?