Will house prices go down soon?
Will house prices go down soon?
Hi Bogleheads,
Do you think new home prices will go down soon? I am interested in moving to the Las Vegas area soon in a new home. I noticed that the 2289 Square foot Pioneer home Lennar model in Las Vegas was starting at a price of $439,000 in December 2020 (via a realtor's you tube video walk-through). The same model home in the same area is now starting at much higher price of around $580,000. That's a huge increase - but I guess people are willing to pay it. What are your thoughts - is it better to wait for the market to cool - or buy at these inflated prices now?
Do you think new home prices will go down soon? I am interested in moving to the Las Vegas area soon in a new home. I noticed that the 2289 Square foot Pioneer home Lennar model in Las Vegas was starting at a price of $439,000 in December 2020 (via a realtor's you tube video walk-through). The same model home in the same area is now starting at much higher price of around $580,000. That's a huge increase - but I guess people are willing to pay it. What are your thoughts - is it better to wait for the market to cool - or buy at these inflated prices now?
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
50% chance house prices level off or drop. If you need a home to live in and can afford it, buy.
Dave
Dave
"Reality always wins, your only job is to get in touch with it." Wilfred Bion
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Nobody knows. Really.
People have opinions and theories, some people more confident than others, some with more persuasive stories than others, some will just tell you whatever it is you want to hear.
I'm partial to the idea that there isn't going to be a big crash in real estate prices any time soon, higher inflation is likely, and that the price of housing will bounce around a bit but might sort of ease it's way into a new normal when coupled with the relative inflation of everything else and higher interest rates that will make less easy money available and raise the payments at an equivalent price point. I don't expect that mortgage payment affordability is going to change much, prices might come down a little as interest rates go up a little and peoples wages inflate a little over time.
... but that's just my guess/story ...
People have opinions and theories, some people more confident than others, some with more persuasive stories than others, some will just tell you whatever it is you want to hear.
I'm partial to the idea that there isn't going to be a big crash in real estate prices any time soon, higher inflation is likely, and that the price of housing will bounce around a bit but might sort of ease it's way into a new normal when coupled with the relative inflation of everything else and higher interest rates that will make less easy money available and raise the payments at an equivalent price point. I don't expect that mortgage payment affordability is going to change much, prices might come down a little as interest rates go up a little and peoples wages inflate a little over time.
... but that's just my guess/story ...
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Rates remain low and the conforming mortgage limit is going up from $548k to $647k. Demand is still there where I live. I’m speculating on a lower growth/leveling off in 2022 but I seriously doubt there will be a drop.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
The market always cools but you can never know where the market will cool. Based on past history, Vegas typically drops before other places.
Last edited by Jags4186 on Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
No, I don't think so anytime soon. But my crystal ball is broken so there's that.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
If you want a house, buy a house. No one knows what the market will do. We bought in the middle of the spring frenzy this year and now we live in the house and we're getting to know our neighbors and it's great. No idea what the value's done since, we didn't buy it for an investment.
Personally you couldn't pay me to buy a builder home built in the last year or two in a hot market, between the labor and materials shortages quality seems to have gotten even rougher than it was before. If you go for it get a third party inspector during your build, it's not good out there.
Personally you couldn't pay me to buy a builder home built in the last year or two in a hot market, between the labor and materials shortages quality seems to have gotten even rougher than it was before. If you go for it get a third party inspector during your build, it's not good out there.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Like people said above, maybe,maybe not.
What we know though is that the inflation this year is at least 6%, mortgage rates are around or under 3%.
What we know though is that the inflation this year is at least 6%, mortgage rates are around or under 3%.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I'd be surprised if prices drop as most buying homes are required to provide a sizable downpayment/level of home equity, what would motivate them to accept a loss on the sale? Maybe some people here and there, but not a flood like in 2008. The average buyer also has a high credit score and is well qualified. It's not like 2008 where people with income that could not support the housing payment and no assets bought houses with 0% home equity
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Depend on demand. If more people are moving in a certain area, house price will go up.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
While you are at it can we predict which direction the stock market is going to go as well?
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I don't think house prices are any easier to predict than the stock market. Even in the mid 2000's when it was fairly obvious that there was eventually going to be a crash due to the crazy lending practices, it was not at all clear when the crash would occur. (It was several years later than I would have predicted.)
Fortunately, house prices are unlike stock prices in that they change relatively slowly, so once it becomes clear we're in a downturn, you still have plenty of time to react (potentially years) before prices bottom out.
I agree with others that you should buy when it makes financial sense to you, and when you're confident that you're going to stay in the house long enough (say, a decade or longer) that price fluctuations won't matter much. One additional suggestion is that if you're in a market where you can't make a competitive offer without waiving inspection contingencies, that's a big red flag that you should probably wait.
Fortunately, house prices are unlike stock prices in that they change relatively slowly, so once it becomes clear we're in a downturn, you still have plenty of time to react (potentially years) before prices bottom out.
I agree with others that you should buy when it makes financial sense to you, and when you're confident that you're going to stay in the house long enough (say, a decade or longer) that price fluctuations won't matter much. One additional suggestion is that if you're in a market where you can't make a competitive offer without waiving inspection contingencies, that's a big red flag that you should probably wait.
Last edited by Bungo on Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Psst prices will drop 12.4567 % and rise 30% over the next 20 years. It is guaranteed. You didn’t hear it hear it here. BTW, the market will go up AND down in the near future.
Bill
Bill
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Highly unlikely in my opinion based on how prices tend to stay the same or level off after increases, particularly in desired areas. Key word, however, is "opinion." Some will say to predict is meaningless, though everyone does so that invests, just with differences in the time required for eventual, predicted increases.
Tim
Tim
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Area and specific area dependent.
But, overall, in general, given current trends, . . .not anytime soon.
Some areas might slow down in valuation increases, some might pause.
This can vary as much as just across the street.
j
But, overall, in general, given current trends, . . .not anytime soon.
Some areas might slow down in valuation increases, some might pause.
This can vary as much as just across the street.
j
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
In my completely unqualified, lay(wo)man's opinion ....
If folks get it into their heads that inflation is here to stay, or rents increase, demand for housing will increase. Therefore, housing prices will increase.
In an inflationary environment, fixed rate debt and real assets are your friends. In a deflationary environment (remember all the calls for deflation prior to covid-19?), the opposite is true. You will get your pick of houses from owners desperate to sell.
The current environment seems to be inflationary, but keep in mind two years ago, the pundits were predicting deflation.
If the work from home (WFH) trend persists, having a comfortable home rather than a cramped apartment with potentially infectious neighbors on the other side of thin walls will be increasingly important, and increase demand for detached homes. This regardless of whether we have inflation or deflation. But will employers embrace work from home? Before I retired from Megacorp (prior to covid-19), Megacorp had been a pioneer in WFH, but were reversing their stance and actively discouraging WFH. They wanted the teams huddled together during the work day.
Good luck!
If folks get it into their heads that inflation is here to stay, or rents increase, demand for housing will increase. Therefore, housing prices will increase.
In an inflationary environment, fixed rate debt and real assets are your friends. In a deflationary environment (remember all the calls for deflation prior to covid-19?), the opposite is true. You will get your pick of houses from owners desperate to sell.
The current environment seems to be inflationary, but keep in mind two years ago, the pundits were predicting deflation.
If the work from home (WFH) trend persists, having a comfortable home rather than a cramped apartment with potentially infectious neighbors on the other side of thin walls will be increasingly important, and increase demand for detached homes. This regardless of whether we have inflation or deflation. But will employers embrace work from home? Before I retired from Megacorp (prior to covid-19), Megacorp had been a pioneer in WFH, but were reversing their stance and actively discouraging WFH. They wanted the teams huddled together during the work day.
Good luck!
He that loveth silver shall not be satisfied with silver; nor he that loveth abundance with increase: this is also vanity.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
My guess is not in the next year.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Zillow is a $16B market cap company specializing in RE pricing/modeling. And they just got hosed trying to enter the housing market.
Well, if Zillow with all that data, computing power, and experts couldn’t appropriately model housing prices, this forum won’t provide you any insights.
If you need/want a house and can afford it, buy it.
Well, if Zillow with all that data, computing power, and experts couldn’t appropriately model housing prices, this forum won’t provide you any insights.
If you need/want a house and can afford it, buy it.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Money goes where it's treated best. The Fed is projecting that bonds won't be the way to go. Stock prices will balance downward as interest rates increase. That leaves real estate. I wouldn't expect RE to drop much anytime soon.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
My understanding is that the issue was not so much Zillow's pricing model as their "iBuying" department's decision ("Project Ketchup") to pay higher prices than the model predicted. There was a good writeup in the WSJ a couple of weeks ago. (This doesn't necessarily mean that their model is good, though.)DVMResident wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:31 am Zillow is a $16B market cap company specializing in RE pricing/modeling. And they just got hosed trying to enter the housing market.
Well, if Zillow with all that data, computing power, and experts couldn’t appropriately model housing prices, this forum won’t provide you any insights.
If you need/want a house and can afford it, buy it.
What Went Wrong With Zillow? A Real-Estate Algorithm Derailed Its Big Bet
https://www.wsj.com/articles/zillow-off ... 1637159261
Zillow put together a plan to speed up the pace and volume of home purchases, dubbing it Project Ketchup—which employees took as a play on the team’s mission to catch up to Opendoor. Zillow planned to buy more homes by spending more money, offering prices well above what its algorithm and analysts picked as market value, people familiar with the matter said.
...
Staffers grew concerned Zillow was paying too much, people familiar with the matter said. Analysts whose job it was to confirm the prices of homes found that they were routinely overruled, those people said, because the company had retooled the system to raise the analysts’ suggested prices. Automatic price add-ons coded into the company system, including one called the “gross pricing overlay” that could add as much as 7%, would boost offering prices to get more home sellers to say yes.
Some Zillow employees complained about the pricing in company Slack channels and meetings, but their concerns went largely unaddressed or they were told that the model was working as intended, several current and former employees said.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
If anybody can predict correctly where prices are heading for housing or any other investments, they would be rich.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Very true. But I'd point out that housing prices only go down in nominal terms during extreme events. Even during the great recession, housing price declines were highly regional. A few places where the market had become particularly overheated saw substantial declines, but a lot of places just saw a levelling off expect perhaps for extra softness during the turmoil of late 2008.
Nobody can predict the future, but I think we have another 10 years or so of demographic tailwinds for the housing market as Millenials (who are numerically a larger demographic than the Gen-Xers or Zoomers) continue to seek single family housing and move into their peak earning years. After that, you will have the headwinds of more and more baby boomers dying and/or moving into assisted living and other housing accommodations, likely at a rate higher than new purchases by Millenials and Zoomers. Where you could really see housing price declines is in a scenario that the population starts to decline. Birth rates in the U.S. are currently below replacement levels, and that trend is accelerating throughout the world. Even India recently achieved a birth rate below replacement levels. But the real impact of a population decline may be many decades out. There's also no guarantee that the trend towards lower birthrates will continue, though it seems to be a pretty consistent pattern in a country as birth control becomes affordable and integrated into social norms.
Big X-factor is interest rates. The lower mortgage rates are, the lower payments are. Current purchase prices are high in historical terms, but monthly payments aren't. If interest rates rise significantly, that will put a damper on the housing market. If you can predict interest rates, you could make your fortune in the bond markets. A lot of people feel like interest rates must rise in the near future, but people have been feeling that since shortly after the financial crisis. The secular decline in interest rates over the last few decades has been the subject of much academic debate, and nobody knows if/when that trend will reverse.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
My guess is as good as the next guy.danaht wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:20 am Hi Bogleheads,
Do you think new home prices will go down soon? I am interested in moving to the Las Vegas area soon in a new home. I noticed that the 2289 Square foot Pioneer home Lennar model in Las Vegas was starting at a price of $439,000 in December 2020 (via a realtor's you tube video walk-through). The same model home in the same area is now starting at much higher price of around $580,000. That's a huge increase - but I guess people are willing to pay it. What are your thoughts - is it better to wait for the market to cool - or buy at these inflated prices now?
My guess?
- The only time I saw the price go down significantly is 2008. I bought my house in 2009 when it's rock bottom. I have not seen it happen again ever since. Although I do see house price go down 5-7 years ago when Houston economy got hit with oil crisis. So you may get lucky as housing market tends to go in cycle. But can you afford to time the housing market?
- With the BBB plan in the work, more money will be flowing to the economy. The dollar price tag may jump higher. But at the same time, if you make more income, save and invest wisely, your purchasing power will increase more than the price tag.
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Nobody can predict the future. The people that understand the market the best have indicated the market will level off. Some markets like California will go down but most prices will be flat. The probability of another 2008 is very slim so I wouldn't bet on it.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Given the inflationary environment we're in, it's unlikely the housing market will go down. Housing price is fairly sticky going downward as sellers are reluctant to sell for less than what they pay for. Unless you have a massive repossession by bank like 2008, the best hope is for price to level off and remain flat for years. Go check out calculated risk blog, hands down the best real estate trend blog (national level).
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Nobody on this board knows which way home prices will go, neither does Jerry. Otherwise it's only a guess backed up with fluff talk to sound smart.
If you're thinking of waiting for the prices to fall, good luck. If you buy and then prices fall, crap happens. If you buy and prices go up further, you'll feel smart.
If you're thinking of waiting for the prices to fall, good luck. If you buy and then prices fall, crap happens. If you buy and prices go up further, you'll feel smart.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
In the short term, I wouldn't count on it. Interest rates are still super low, inventory is like 1/2 of normal, and the dominant economic narrative is to be freaked out about inflation.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Define "soon". How long are you willing to wait? How lucky do you feel?danaht wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:20 am Do you think new home prices will go down soon? I am interested in moving to the Las Vegas area soon in a new home. I noticed that the 2289 Square foot Pioneer home Lennar model in Las Vegas was starting at a price of $439,000 in December 2020 (via a realtor's you tube video walk-through). The same model home in the same area is now starting at much higher price of around $580,000. That's a huge increase - but I guess people are willing to pay it. What are your thoughts - is it better to wait for the market to cool - or buy at these inflated prices now?
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
If you need a place to live and can commit to staying in a house long-term, this short-term price activity is just noise.
Someone who bought at the absolute top of the market in 2006 for zero down in most areas who stayed put and kept making payments has plenty of equity now.
Someone who bought at the absolute top of the market in 2006 for zero down in most areas who stayed put and kept making payments has plenty of equity now.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Obviously it's all an unknown trying to predict the future.
However, I follow multiple SFR properties in different markets. Things have thus turned out as I've predicted in these markets:
a) Significant housing appreciation has occurred. We can debate why that has happened.
b) Some markets have now slowed down. Via zillow (which for tract homes is more accurate), there are some 30 day periods were it may go up a little, and some 30 day periods where it may go down a little.
In other words, prices are not dropping in these markets, they have just stabilized.
Having also know people who've personally sold homes in last year, and things like buying without inspections, buying sight unseen just don't seem to be happening in those particular markets.
Personally what I think is most important is to have a good understanding of your job/life situation. If you're going to have to move in a few years, the transaction costs are very high and it may very well be your equity won't be much higher than when you purchased the home. If your staying for long period, then the basic concept stays the same, it makes more sense. If you'll be moving soon, then it's definitely more heavily skewed that your trying to speculate on the housing market going up in your favor.
It's hard to not get caught up in the recent spike in housing prices and presume that particular trend is the new long term normal.
However, I follow multiple SFR properties in different markets. Things have thus turned out as I've predicted in these markets:
a) Significant housing appreciation has occurred. We can debate why that has happened.
b) Some markets have now slowed down. Via zillow (which for tract homes is more accurate), there are some 30 day periods were it may go up a little, and some 30 day periods where it may go down a little.
In other words, prices are not dropping in these markets, they have just stabilized.
Having also know people who've personally sold homes in last year, and things like buying without inspections, buying sight unseen just don't seem to be happening in those particular markets.
Personally what I think is most important is to have a good understanding of your job/life situation. If you're going to have to move in a few years, the transaction costs are very high and it may very well be your equity won't be much higher than when you purchased the home. If your staying for long period, then the basic concept stays the same, it makes more sense. If you'll be moving soon, then it's definitely more heavily skewed that your trying to speculate on the housing market going up in your favor.
It's hard to not get caught up in the recent spike in housing prices and presume that particular trend is the new long term normal.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
There will always be new build homes in the Las Vegas area. They’re not going to run out of land there anytime soon.
As far as when to buy, my best guess is to buy one when you need one to live in.
As far as when to buy, my best guess is to buy one when you need one to live in.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I added a few words to the post. I think the big driver is extremely low inventory. It is unlikely to ease up in 6 months or so. Coincidentally the home inventory situation resembles car inventory for different reasonsalfaspider wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:54 amIf interest rates rise significantly, AND INCOMES DO NOT RISE in TANDEM (unlikely) that will put a damper on the housing market.
OP has a choice to make - wait it out or buy. If everything else (finances, family, location) except for the sticker shock says buy, I would buy. Primary home is mostly a consumption item and you should buy it knowing that there is an upfront load, it is expensive to maintain and can depreciate
AV111
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Really hard to say. Here are some anecdotal chatter:
I know several funds that have been investing in residential housing. On the one hand, some funds are laughing at Zillow and saying they had to really want to lose money in order to have such a huge writedown. But on the other hand, some funds are saying they started to worry about a market downturn and seeing the Zillow situation not unlikely for their investment.
I do think the market was very hot with all this private equity money invested. I know one fund whose goal was to buy 10,000 single-family houses every month. When your business team has that as a target, you will pay higher than market value. Now maybe those private equity funds are not as aggressive because what happened to Zillow.
However, the general market conditions might not be relevant in your individual case. Each market is so different. Even within the Las Vegas area, it could be different from one street to another. I would say don't bet on housing price going up or down, just take it as is, and ask yourself if you are comfortble buying a particular house at a particular price.
I know several funds that have been investing in residential housing. On the one hand, some funds are laughing at Zillow and saying they had to really want to lose money in order to have such a huge writedown. But on the other hand, some funds are saying they started to worry about a market downturn and seeing the Zillow situation not unlikely for their investment.
I do think the market was very hot with all this private equity money invested. I know one fund whose goal was to buy 10,000 single-family houses every month. When your business team has that as a target, you will pay higher than market value. Now maybe those private equity funds are not as aggressive because what happened to Zillow.
However, the general market conditions might not be relevant in your individual case. Each market is so different. Even within the Las Vegas area, it could be different from one street to another. I would say don't bet on housing price going up or down, just take it as is, and ask yourself if you are comfortble buying a particular house at a particular price.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
+1.
Where?
I’ve heard Zillow has some good deals on houses.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I don't think prices are going down anytime soon. Too much money on the sidelines.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Did anyone see the latest inventory chart? I don' t think prices are going down. May be the rate of increase will drop from double digits to single digits.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Unlikely prices will go down anytime in the short to midterm. Two cost components to a standalone house - 1) material and labor cost to build that house and its subsequent value as a finished home, 2) cost to purchase property at that location. Both components have been increasing dramatically especially in desirable locations. Desirable locations drive price more than any other factor as they tend to be scarce. You can change everything about a house except its location. Inflation also drives home prices via mortgage rates. Low recent rates have allowed prices to rise dramatically because vast majority of buyers purchase a home based on monthly payment that they can afford to pay rather than total cost. Rising interest rates may dampen or perhaps even lower average home prices in most places.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Thanks for all the replies. I decided to buy one as soon as I save enough for most of the down payment - as I don't want to sell much stock to trigger capital gains taxes. Most builders in Las Vegas are asking for 10% down while the house is being constructed for 8 to 10 months. So - I need to save about $40,000 before signing a contract. Meanwhile - I am going to put my name in any waiting lists for the neighborhoods that still have waiting lists rather than an auction or lottery. Crazy times in real estate - I am fortunate that I own a house in TX right now.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I'd look at the unrealized gains for your most recently purchased securities in the taxable account and see how much tax you would actually owe before deciding to wait until you save up more, especially if its an 8-10 month wait for a house to be built.
Are you selling the house in TX or going to rent it long term?
Personally I don't think the cost of new construction houses is going to come down by much especially in places like Las Vegas anytime soon. Not while people including retirees are moving there from higher cost areas.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I don't like managing houses, maintaining houses - or the liability of owning houses. That is why I plan to sell my house in TX and use the proceeds to buy the smallest house possible in a good neighborhood in Las Vegas. (the house is only for me and my dog - and any occasional guests) I consider myself a very passive investor who prefers index funds and some stocks. If Las Vegas real estate inflation is going to go up another 24% in 2022 (like it did in 2021 and 2020) - then I probably should sell enough stock to do a down payment now. But - I am going to instead try to save as quickly as possible for it - and possibly sell a few things that have not appreciated much. All future dividends in my taxable account are going towards the future house payment right now. Also I plan to stop all Roth conversions for the rest of 2021 and for 2022 - so I can concentrate on saving for it. This will also help me take capital gains if I need to.stan1 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 3:40 pmI'd look at the unrealized gains for your most recently purchased securities in the taxable account and see how much tax you would actually owe before deciding to wait until you save up more, especially if its an 8-10 month wait for a house to be built.
Are you selling the house in TX or going to rent it long term?
Personally I don't think the cost of new construction houses is going to come down by much especially in places like Las Vegas anytime soon. Not while people including retirees are moving there from higher cost areas.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I think inventory is the key, I know several people who want to downsize (retired) but are concerned about a replacement home.SmallSaver wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:30 pm In the short term, I wouldn't count on it. Interest rates are still super low, inventory is like 1/2 of normal, and the dominant economic narrative is to be freaked out about inflation.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
my magic 8 ball tells me they'll level off in many areas, go down? - in some less desirable locations. As long as interest rates are low, there will be no drastic change.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I bought a new home in the summer. I think I over paid by about 15% compared t 2019. This is my last home - before asst living or nursing home so am glad to be here
This is of course a case of priorities in your current point in life.
This is of course a case of priorities in your current point in life.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I don’t think so as it seems to be more supply constraint that is driving prices higher. We haven’t been building enough housing for years. No reason to think that dynamic changes quickly.
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
I sold and closed on a house I own in north Florida on Friday afternoon. My observation is the market in the area has peaked and there has been a noticeable slowing in the market over the last 60 days. I also get updates showing the home market in the area and it shows a reduction in prices.
That is strictly limited to the housing market in NW Florida. I live in SE Florida, and I have not observed a noticeable change in the market here.
That is strictly limited to the housing market in NW Florida. I live in SE Florida, and I have not observed a noticeable change in the market here.
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Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Have you lived in Las Vegas?danaht wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 5:09 pmI don't like managing houses, maintaining houses - or the liability of owning houses. That is why I plan to sell my house in TX and use the proceeds to buy the smallest house possible in a good neighborhood in Las Vegas. (the house is only for me and my dog - and any occasional guests) I consider myself a very passive investor who prefers index funds and some stocks. If Las Vegas real estate inflation is going to go up another 24% in 2022 (like it did in 2021 and 2020) - then I probably should sell enough stock to do a down payment now. But - I am going to instead try to save as quickly as possible for it - and possibly sell a few things that have not appreciated much. All future dividends in my taxable account are going towards the future house payment right now. Also I plan to stop all Roth conversions for the rest of 2021 and for 2022 - so I can concentrate on saving for it. This will also help me take capital gains if I need to.stan1 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 3:40 pmI'd look at the unrealized gains for your most recently purchased securities in the taxable account and see how much tax you would actually owe before deciding to wait until you save up more, especially if its an 8-10 month wait for a house to be built.
Are you selling the house in TX or going to rent it long term?
Personally I don't think the cost of new construction houses is going to come down by much especially in places like Las Vegas anytime soon. Not while people including retirees are moving there from higher cost areas.
It has a quite unique culture & style as I understand it.
Have you considered Phoenix or Tucson AZ as possible alternatives (being desert cities)?
Might it be worth renting for a year, first? Get a rental condo and see how you like it?
(I have long term concerns about water supply - the city draws a lot of its water from groundwater aquifers, which are not being replenished, as I understand it. On the other hand, this is also true of Phoenix AZ (I believe) *and* Cook County (ie LV) has probably done more than almost any other American desert city to try to adapt to a situation of permanent water scarcity).
You are absolutely right not to "over house". Once you hit the minimum resaleable size. Smaller houses (as long as they are not too small, eg for a family of 2 or 3) hold their value better - it's all about location, not physical size of house. And less energy to heat/ cool, less maintenance to do, etc.
Agree also re rental. It's a job, and a business, and you have to want to put the time and effort into that business. Accidental landlordship is not usually a good strategy and it can cause unbelievable amounts of pain and grief.
I just worry about committing to a property before you need to.
US market is probably not overvalued -- but there seem to be a lot of local bubbles around, arising from shortages of new construction plus migration away from expensive coastal cities to other places (like Denver CO, or Phoenix AZ)?
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
Las Vegas is in Clark County. Chicago is in Cook County.Valuethinker wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 12:59 pm (I have long term concerns about water supply - the city draws a lot of its water from groundwater aquifers, which are not being replenished, as I understand it. On the other hand, this is also true of Phoenix AZ (I believe) *and* Cook County (ie LV) has probably done more than almost any other American desert city to try to adapt to a situation of permanent water scarcity).
Re: Will house prices go down soon?
House prices historically almost never went down year over year. House prices never went down for any period over 15 years. If you must buy, might as well buy it now.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.