Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling [Chicago]

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Canopus
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Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling [Chicago]

Post by Canopus »

In planning a vacation trip to a major American city, I have been reading the websites of mainstream news organizations from that city (newspapers, TV stations, etc.). There have been numerous reports of an uptick of street crime (many violent incidents) in areas frequented by tourists, including areas with a heavy concentration of art galleries, the avenue where the performing arts center is located, etc.

How can I gauge the threat to my safety if I visit? Is there an objective (data-driven) source of recent street crime statistics for major American cities?

Canopus
[OP later specifies River North, West Loop, and Loop neighborhoods of Chicago - admin Alex]
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by muffins14 »

I honestly don’t think there is a data driven answer to this because the statistics are like population averages in X events per 100,000 people etc. and ignore things like neighborhood specifics, times of day, personal circumstances etc.

The best advice regardless of location is to be aware of your surroundings, be cautious like not walking around with a huge wad of cash, counting diamonds on the street etc.

being around other people vs alone is usually good to reduce risk too
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by 123 »

Be sure to consider the risk to your safety if you remain in your current location. You may be safer elsewhere.

I don't think local crime statistics will be that useful in evaluating your safety as a tourist. Tourists are always at much higher risk for crime then local residents. They are not familiar with their surroundings. They frequent tourist areas/attractions and are in parts of town (hotels areas) easier to target by criminals. They often act like tourists (they are intrigued by things locals ignore) and can be easily identified. Their vehicles are packed with observable luggage (thanks to the popularity of SUVs). They may carry more cash as tourists than they would as a local. We live near some tourist areas and crimes against tourists don't often get reported in the news due to their frequency (old news). When a local gets robbed we hear about it because the locals are known. Tourists are less likely to report crimes because they have other places to go and they generally don't want to come back for court proceedings even if a criminal is identified.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by adamthesmythe »

My view is that the risk of visiting major cultural attractions in US major cities is, and always has been, essentially negligible. To the point that an "uptick" means an increase of an negligible risk to a still negligible risk.

This assumes that (1) one does not carry a lot of cash and (2) one doesn't do obviously stupid things.

One exception I can think of. I would not go to a late-night musical venue in Texas, where guns are common.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by SteadyOne »

Stay in the area with plenty of Starbucks. Those are safer areas. Also, do your sightseeing in the morning. Trouble makers are not early risers.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Sandtrap »

Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:47 pm In planning a vacation trip to a major American city, I have been reading the websites of mainstream news organizations from that city (newspapers, TV stations, etc.). There have been numerous reports of an uptick of street crime (many violent incidents) in areas frequented by tourists, including areas with a heavy concentration of art galleries, the avenue where the performing arts center is located, etc.

How can I gauge the threat to my safety if I visit? Is there an objective (data-driven) source of recent street crime statistics for major American cities?

Canopus
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Impatience »

Reporting scary crime statistics is a vital revenue driver for news outlets. It’s their bread and butter. Too bad crime statistics are usually wrong or twisted by cops, the media, the local government, activist groups, or all of the above. This is one area where common sense and anecdotal evidence trump “the data”. Talk to some locals and don’t walk around late at night wearing all your flashy bling.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Fudgie »

*****
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by halfnine »

Just look around and figure out who you would mug. If you can't find anyone then it is you.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by quantAndHold »

News media does this thing called “trend reporting,” which goes like “there’s an uptick in violent crime in the city,” or “the number of people moving from location A to location B doubled last year.” Then when you look at the actual numbers of both of those events, you find out that the number of violent crimes or people moving went from 3 per 100k to 6 per 100k or something like that.

Wish washy words like “uptick” aren’t useful for gauging anything.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Dude2 »

If the city is in New Jersey, I wouldn't go there.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by adestefan »

If it bleeds it leads.

The last 15-20 years have been some of the safest time ever in the United States. Don't do dumb things and you'll be fine.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by bogletay »

Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:47 pm In planning a vacation trip to a major American city, I have been reading the websites of mainstream news organizations from that city (newspapers, TV stations, etc.). There have been numerous reports of an uptick of street crime (many violent incidents) in areas frequented by tourists, including areas with a heavy concentration of art galleries, the avenue where the performing arts center is located, etc.

How can I gauge the threat to my safety if I visit? Is there an objective (data-driven) source of recent street crime statistics for major American cities?

Canopus
Is this New York City? If so, you're fine. City is still great and I was just there this weekend.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by pezblanco »

Fudgie wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 2:43 pm
Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:47 pm In planning a vacation trip to a major American city, I have been reading the websites of mainstream news organizations from that city (newspapers, TV stations, etc.). There have been numerous reports of an uptick of street crime (many violent incidents) in areas frequented by tourists, including areas with a heavy concentration of art galleries, the avenue where the performing arts center is located, etc.

How can I gauge the threat to my safety if I visit? Is there an objective (data-driven) source of recent street crime statistics for major American cities?

Canopus
Why not name the city so that some helpful locals can chime in?
This is a typical BH thread ... First: Someone asks a ludicrously broad question that contains absolutely no needed information so that it's impossible to make an intelligent response. Second: The thread will continue for 3 pages with respondents answering in kind.

I'm always astonished for such a heavily moderated group as BHs that these sorts of thread aren't terminated also. Oh well, just as long as we're not discussing crypto, it's all good. :D
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Canopus
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Canopus »

OP here.

The city is Chicago.

The areas of which I have read where street crime has increased (against locals and tourists alike): River North (art galleries/antiques), Michigan Avenue (Symphony Center/Orchestra Hall), and West Loop (cuisine).

Input from Chicago area residents would be appreciated.

Canopus
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by StevieG72 »

I really can’t think of any major US cities I would avoid right now based on crime, natural disaster is a different story.

Common sense planning and you should be fine.

I remember once being in the Bahamas after dark when all the tourists went back to a cruise ship and things got really sketchy! Was glad when I removed myself from that situation. Also on a separate trip outside the US we were with a family friend in an area that warned of pick-pocket crimes. This family friend had his wallet sticking six inches out of his pocket with paperwork etc. almost like a checkbook. I saved him the grief and pick pocketed it myself, we all got a good laugh.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by mr_brightside »

some people walk around in 'condition red' all the time ... some people walk around oblivious...

you need to find your happy medium. take common sense precautions:

- know where you're going and your route to / from
- stay with a group when possible
- keep your head up -- observing your surroundings / situational awareness
- don't go to sketchy ATMs ESPECIALLY after dark
- trust your gut instincts -- this is where a lot of people fail...
- keep your cell phone, valuables, wallet etc secured / out of sight
- be extra careful after 11pm
etc

you have to find the balance of living enjoyably and personal safety. when you're the victim the crime rate is 100%. :oops:

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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Shallowpockets »

pezblanco wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:33 pm
Fudgie wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 2:43 pm
Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:47 pm In planning a vacation trip to a major American city, I have been reading the websites of mainstream news organizations from that city (newspapers, TV stations, etc.). There have been numerous reports of an uptick of street crime (many violent incidents) in areas frequented by tourists, including areas with a heavy concentration of art galleries, the avenue where the performing arts center is located, etc.

How can I gauge the threat to my safety if I visit? Is there an objective (data-driven) source of recent street crime statistics for major American cities?

Canopus
Why not name the city so that some helpful locals can chime in?
This is a typical BH thread ... First: Someone asks a ludicrously broad question that contains absolutely no needed information so that it's impossible to make an intelligent response. Second: The thread will continue for 3 pages with respondents answering in kind.

I'm always astonished for such a heavily moderated group as BHs that these sorts of thread aren't terminated also. Oh well, just as long as we're not discussing crypto, it's all good. :D
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by MishkaWorries »

Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:43 pm OP here.

The city is Chicago.

The areas of which I have read where street crime has increased (against locals and tourists alike): River North (art galleries/antiques), Michigan Avenue (Symphony Center/Orchestra Hall), and West Loop (cuisine).

Input from Chicago area residents would be appreciated.

Canopus
We were just in Chicago for the July 4 weekend. We stayed in the Loop and things got too interesting at night. It was a big rowdy street party we were not interested in attending.

Other than that, and that was a big "that", Chicago was fine. Daytime no concerns at all. I'd probably take Uber at night from hotel to restaurant and back again.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by muffins14 »

Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:43 pm OP here.

The city is Chicago.

The areas of which I have read where street crime has increased (against locals and tourists alike): River North (art galleries/antiques), Michigan Avenue (Symphony Center/Orchestra Hall), and West Loop (cuisine).

Input from Chicago area residents would be appreciated.

Canopus
Not a Chicago resident, but again the only thing that applies is to use common sense. It’s not like 1/3 people are murdered outside the opera house or 1/10 people get robbed after eating sushi. Just use the good advice provided so far about being “aware of your surroundings” and you should be fine
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Arabesque »

You are safer than in cities than the suburbs or the country, largely due to lower traffic fatalities, but there are other factors. Enjoy Chicago.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by WingsFan4Life »

Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:43 pm OP here.

The city is Chicago.

The areas of which I have read where street crime has increased (against locals and tourists alike): River North (art galleries/antiques), Michigan Avenue (Symphony Center/Orchestra Hall), and West Loop (cuisine).

Input from Chicago area residents would be appreciated.

Canopus
I knew it was Chicago! You'll be fine... don't take the red line or green line after dark. :beer
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by oldcomputerguy »

Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:43 pm OP here.

The city is Chicago.

The areas of which I have read where street crime has increased (against locals and tourists alike): River North (art galleries/antiques), Michigan Avenue (Symphony Center/Orchestra Hall), and West Loop (cuisine).

Input from Chicago area residents would be appreciated.

Canopus
We just took a few days in Chicago back in July, and although there were lots of crowds, I can't say that I ever felt unsafe. I was even comfortable walking through some of the parks. We didn't make it out to the West Loop, we stayed near the Riverwalk area (N Michigan & E Wacker), walked to Millennium Park and Navy Pier, took the Metra train to Shedd Aquarium and the Museum of Science and Industry, and was comfortable the whole time. We also walked along the lake back from Shedd to our hotel (about two miles) and had no fears.

It's like any other large city. Keep alert, don't walk into any deserted areas, and watch your wallet.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by bob60014 »

Chicago area resident. We go into the downtown area with overnight stays, often. Be aware, a lot of the reports, just like financial news, is noise. True there are incidents here, but there are incidents in Boston, LA, SFO, NYC, etc, too. I always use the standard travel info no matter which city we travel to, just be aware of your surroundings.

Two weeks ago we spent a weekend in River North, with walks to West Loop and the Water Tower area and didn't feel uneasy at all. Tho, when I took my wife to the Billy Goat via the back way on Hubbard, it gave me pause. Its kind of a dark and dingy area, and if you know the area you know what I mean.

The only thing we did notice was that, overall, it was earily quiet in almost all areas, with a obvious lack of the usual hustle and bustle normally seen and heard. Enjoy your trip!

Give Jaleo, José Andrés new restaurant here, a try. It was very good. :)
Last edited by bob60014 on Sun Sep 05, 2021 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by quantAndHold »

Chicago is fun. Have a great trip!
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by JPM »

If you know your way around from prior experience, you should be fine.

If you don't know your way around, take the precautions that any tourist would take. Don't look rich, drunk, or an easy target. No jewelry or expensive wristwatch. Dress like the locals and for the weather if you can. If the symphony and the museum campus are the main attractions, you might stay nearby at something like the Blackstone. The Palmer House used to be great for this kind of trip but it was foreclosed on by its lenders during the Covid shutdown. The symphony is a short walk down Michigan Avenue from the Blackstone and the museums a short walk as well. The galleries 10-12 blocks north of the Blackstone.

If you are at the museums or galleries during the day, you should be fine. Don't miss the Driehaus museum. At night during the week you should have no problems. On the weekend nights and evenings, groups of young rowdy people sometimes make trouble for those in the wrong place at the wrong time. If you don't know your way around, might be prudent to stay in the hotel weekend nights or if out and about go by cab or uber and schedule a pickup.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by ClevrChico »

You should be fine. The areas OP mentioned always seem to be have plenty of police presence. I last visited right before Covid and had no worries.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by RobLIC »

I live in NYC and walk my dog at night. Started carrying pepper spray with me when things got sketchy here. It makes me feel better. Although … I suspect that I’d spray myself before any potential mugger. :beer
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by runninginvestor »

RobLIC wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:16 pm I live in NYC and walk my dog at night. Started carrying pepper spray with me when things got sketchy here. It makes me feel better. Although … I suspect that I’d spray myself before any potential mugger. :beer
I remember going off to college they brought the campus police in from the neighboring university to our high school senior year. He mentioned pepper spray is okay. But in reality when people use it, unless they have it in their hands ready to go or are trained, it just goes everywhere and incapacitated all parties, if you're lucky, and not just yourself. He recommended having it out and ready in your hand while walking to avoid the worst mistakes.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by smectym »

Perfectly legitimate question. Probably homicide is a rough proxy for overall crime—and include all crime, the map gets too busy. Here is a color-coded map for homicide rates by district in Chicago. FWIW. Haven’t scrutinized the underlying data, but should give you some rough idea.

However, agree with other posters that “the risk is negligible,” and Chicago is my kind of town.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/i ... 5f638b1633
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by UpperNwGuy »

The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by quantAndHold »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
Five out of how many?
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by UpperNwGuy »

quantAndHold wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:28 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
Five out of how many?
Five when there used to be none.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by smectym »

quantAndHold wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:28 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
Five out of how many?
Why do you ask, quant, what % of DC pedestrians victimized by *ATM Kidnappings* would you need to see before considering it a relevant data point
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by quantAndHold »

smectym wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:56 pm
quantAndHold wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:28 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
Five out of how many?
Why do you ask, quant, what % of DC pedestrians victimized by *ATM Kidnappings* would you need to see before considering it a relevant data point
I suspect we’re talking about something that’s literally a one in a million thing. That’s why I’m asking. Your risk of getting hit by a car while out walking is *much* higher.

If it makes the news, it’s not going to happen to you. The real risks are the stuff that doesn’t make the news.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by smectym »

quantAndHold wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:02 pm
smectym wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:56 pm
quantAndHold wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:28 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
Five out of how many?
Why do you ask, quant, what % of DC pedestrians victimized by *ATM Kidnappings* would you need to see before considering it a relevant data point
I suspect we’re talking about something that’s literally a one in a million thing. That’s why I’m asking. Your risk of getting hit by a car while out walking is *much* higher.

If it makes the news, it’s not going to happen to you. The real risks are the stuff that doesn’t make the news.
You make a fair point, though NW did state that a lot of this stuff may actually be under-reported in DC.

At any rate, though statistically the risk of X “actually happening to you” may be small, it’s still valuable to be aware of the trend. If a DC native says things are getting sketchy, that’s information I’m glad to have.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by jayjayc »

OP, be vigilant. Be the 1 person on the street whose eyes aren't glued to their phone. This alone should make you a less likely target. Designate someone else in your group to use their phone to navigate.

While your head is kept on a swivel, you'll have the amazing benefit of soaking in the sights and people.

If you plan to be out at night, get a powerful yet pocketable flashlight. It's another signal to predators that you're aware and not an easy target.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by hayman »

quantAndHold wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:02 pm
smectym wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:56 pm
quantAndHold wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:28 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
Five out of how many?
Why do you ask, quant, what % of DC pedestrians victimized by *ATM Kidnappings* would you need to see before considering it a relevant data point
I suspect we’re talking about something that’s literally a one in a million thing. That’s why I’m asking. Your risk of getting hit by a car while out walking is *much* higher.

If it makes the news, it’s not going to happen to you. The real risks are the stuff that doesn’t make the news.
It's not refuting your exact point, but comparing means of death, Chicago 2020 statistics show 39 pedestrian deaths (1) and 775 murders (2).

(1) https://chi.streetsblog.org/2021/02/09/ ... ing-covid/
(2) https://graphics.suntimes.com/homicides/
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by smectym »

jayjayc wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:55 pm OP, be vigilant. Be the 1 person on the street whose eyes aren't glued to their phone. This alone should make you a less likely target. Designate someone else in your group to use their phone to navigate.

While your head is kept on a swivel, you'll have the amazing benefit of soaking in the sights and people.

If you plan to be out at night, get a powerful yet pocketable flashlight. It's another signal to predators that you're aware and not an easy target.
These are solid pointers. Also, I know it sounds absurd, but walk tall and “with purpose,” eyes scanning the surroundings, swinging the arms a bit with fists lightly clenched. I’ve read this since, but before I ever read it, living in a tough district in Brooklyn a casual friend took me aside and said I was dressing too “straight” (he meant, what we would consider today an impoverished version of “business casual”), and walking in a timid posture, eyes cast down: these “cues” made me a target.

This was post my having been robbed on the street.
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by H-Town »

Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:47 pm In planning a vacation trip to a major American city, I have been reading the websites of mainstream news organizations from that city (newspapers, TV stations, etc.). There have been numerous reports of an uptick of street crime (many violent incidents) in areas frequented by tourists, including areas with a heavy concentration of art galleries, the avenue where the performing arts center is located, etc.

How can I gauge the threat to my safety if I visit? Is there an objective (data-driven) source of recent street crime statistics for major American cities?

Canopus
If you live in a big city, you kind of know most of the do's and don'ts to avoid being a victim.

1) Plan your days when there are sun light. If you plan your night activities, be sure you're in the middle of the crowd. Be smart when walking back to your car, i.e. don't just make yourself an easy target.

2) Dress casual and comfortable, like you would have dressed when you go to the gym or run errand.

3) Be situational awareness.

4) Don't present opportunities for criminal. Don't make it easy for them.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Quirkz
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Quirkz »

Canopus wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:43 pm OP here.

The city is Chicago.

The areas of which I have read where street crime has increased (against locals and tourists alike): River North (art galleries/antiques), Michigan Avenue (Symphony Center/Orchestra Hall), and West Loop (cuisine).

Input from Chicago area residents would be appreciated.

Canopus
I was just in this area a few weeks ago. I didn't sleep well and one morning got up with dawn at maybe 5:40 and went for a walk through the streets as the sun rose, wandering from the heart of River North over to the lake shore and back. It was relatively quiet for a large city, but there were dozens and then hundreds of people out walking dogs, going for a jog, getting breakfast. I got asked for food or money by panhandlers a couple of times, but otherwise nobody even really seemed to notice me, and nobody made eye contact. I was struck by the relatively large number of 20-something women out by themselves, jogging or carrying yoga mats, clearly unperturbed by being on their own. By 7 the weekday bustle picked up, and there were a dozen or more people in any given block, all of them doing their own thing, but also that means there's a constant stream of witnesses, every single one with a phone in their pocket, able to call for help or record an interaction. No criminal, no matter how desperate or foolish, is going to attempt a stickup on a block filled with 20 businesspeople, a school trip, and two tourist families. It's just too busy, and it's going to be that way from dawn until dusk, probably at least moderately late into the evening.

Yeah, there might be a few dangerous spots, and you may want to avoid a particularly dirty and gritty looking block, not wander through a deserted looking back alley, and if your spidey senses really start going off listen to them and hustle somewhere else. But for the most part it's relatively-to-very safe, and as others have said if you're not looking totally disoriented and clueless and waving valuables around you won't draw any attention even if someone is looking for a victim.

While I was there I stopped and gawked repeatedly, and paused on the street to take a bunch of pictures, and it brought no trouble upon me.

If you're out after dark and a little more worried then, stick with cabs or Uber/Lyft for transportation, or stay on the bigger and more active streets. But there's plenty of night life, and I think if you go and see you'll have fun and understand that what makes it in the news and what the average moment-to-moment street life are like are two very different things.
cacophony
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by cacophony »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
It looks like you can find the actual statistics here:
https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/197622

2019 total robberies: 2,241
2020 total robberies: 1,997
and robberies for 2021 are at about the same pace as 2020 (only a 3% increase).

Assault looks pretty much unchanged. Burglary is down. Violent crime has decreased a bit since 2019.
smectym
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by smectym »

cacophony wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:41 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
It looks like you can find the actual statistics here:
https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/197622



2019 total robberies: 2,241
2020 total robberies: 1,997
and robberies for 2021 are at about the same pace as 2020 (only a 3% increase).

Assault looks pretty much unchanged. Burglary is down. Violent crime has decreased a bit since 2019.
Yes, it’s a mixed picture (as always). And, one can cherry-pick the stats, or discredit first-person anecdotal experience with stats, or alternatively, choose to bolster such anecdotal evidence with supporting statistical evidence. That’s pretty much always true.

Whether DC or Chicago, I wouldn’t cancel the planned weekend, too much to see and do. Of course, take sensible precautions, as suggested above.
cacophony
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by cacophony »

smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:00 am
cacophony wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:41 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
It looks like you can find the actual statistics here:
https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/197622

2019 total robberies: 2,241
2020 total robberies: 1,997
and robberies for 2021 are at about the same pace as 2020 (only a 3% increase).

Assault looks pretty much unchanged. Burglary is down. Violent crime has decreased a bit since 2019.
Yes, it’s a mixed picture (as always). And, one can cherry-pick the stats, or discredit first-person anecdotal experience with stats, or alternatively, choose to bolster such anecdotal evidence with supporting statistical evidence. That’s pretty much always true.

Whether DC or Chicago, I wouldn’t cancel the planned weekend, too much to see and do. Of course, take sensible precautions, as suggested above.
This wasn't a case of cherry picking data to support an argument. I was curious what the stats said and simply reported the ones that seemed most relevant.
Bleck
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by Bleck »

Chicago family here. Always out and about and all across the city. Clean (well except the Red Line), safe and family friendly. We park on the street and take public transportation. Many many more families in the city than 10 or 20 years ago. Overall crime down last few years too.

I would spend more time trying to get the good restaurant reservations and see what is going on around the city when you plan to visit. September and October are my favorite time of the year here … except for the occasional July weekend when the Cubs are good. Highly recommend the Architectural Boat Cruise by the Chicago Architectural Society. PM me if you want some tailored recommendations.

Edit: and don’t rent a scooter or the bikes. That is taking your life in your own hands. 8-)
smectym
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by smectym »

cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:09 am
smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:00 am
cacophony wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:41 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
It looks like you can find the actual statistics here:
https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/197622

2019 total robberies: 2,241
2020 total robberies: 1,997
and robberies for 2021 are at about the same pace as 2020 (only a 3% increase).

Assault looks pretty much unchanged. Burglary is down. Violent crime has decreased a bit since 2019.
Yes, it’s a mixed picture (as always). And, one can cherry-pick the stats, or discredit first-person anecdotal experience with stats, or alternatively, choose to bolster such anecdotal evidence with supporting statistical evidence. That’s pretty much always true.

Whether DC or Chicago, I wouldn’t cancel the planned weekend, too much to see and do. Of course, take sensible precautions, as suggested above.
This wasn't a case of cherry picking data to support an argument. I was curious what the stats said and simply reported the ones that seemed most relevant.
No kidding. Scanning these results most crime categories are up. (esp. homicides, e.g.). Again, not questioning the validity of stats you cite, but merely pointing out the malleability of statistics to support an implicit point of view.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
cacophony
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Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by cacophony »

smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:32 am
cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:09 am
smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:00 am
cacophony wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:41 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:43 pm The street crime here in Washington DC has escalated dramatically since the pandemic began. The formerly safe neighborhoods are no longer safe. You have to know how to navigate the city so you don't find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Last week five pedestrians were kidnapped and taken to ATM machines and forced at gunpoint to withdraw the maximum cash allowed, then taken to another ATM.

And this is not the news media sensationalizing crime. This real live stuff happening without news coverage.
It looks like you can find the actual statistics here:
https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/197622

2019 total robberies: 2,241
2020 total robberies: 1,997
and robberies for 2021 are at about the same pace as 2020 (only a 3% increase).

Assault looks pretty much unchanged. Burglary is down. Violent crime has decreased a bit since 2019.
Yes, it’s a mixed picture (as always). And, one can cherry-pick the stats, or discredit first-person anecdotal experience with stats, or alternatively, choose to bolster such anecdotal evidence with supporting statistical evidence. That’s pretty much always true.

Whether DC or Chicago, I wouldn’t cancel the planned weekend, too much to see and do. Of course, take sensible precautions, as suggested above.
This wasn't a case of cherry picking data to support an argument. I was curious what the stats said and simply reported the ones that seemed most relevant.
No kidding. Scanning these results most crime categories are up. (esp. homicides, e.g.). Again, not questioning the validity of stats you cite, but merely pointing out the malleability of statistics to support an implicit point of view.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
Yes, the number of homicides did increase about 30 per year.
Motor Vehicle Theft is also up a lot! And Arson increased a lot in 2020 and then decreased a lot (so far) in 2021.
Everything else seems either down or nearly the same.

Not sure why you think most are up...
smectym
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Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 5:07 pm

Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by smectym »

cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:45 am
smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:32 am
cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:09 am
smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:00 am
cacophony wrote: Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:41 pm

It looks like you can find the actual statistics here:
https://mpdc.dc.gov/node/197622

2019 total robberies: 2,241
2020 total robberies: 1,997
and robberies for 2021 are at about the same pace as 2020 (only a 3% increase).

Assault looks pretty much unchanged. Burglary is down. Violent crime has decreased a bit since 2019.
Yes, it’s a mixed picture (as always). And, one can cherry-pick the stats, or discredit first-person anecdotal experience with stats, or alternatively, choose to bolster such anecdotal evidence with supporting statistical evidence. That’s pretty much always true.

Whether DC or Chicago, I wouldn’t cancel the planned weekend, too much to see and do. Of course, take sensible precautions, as suggested above.
This wasn't a case of cherry picking data to support an argument. I was curious what the stats said and simply reported the ones that seemed most relevant.
No kidding. Scanning these results most crime categories are up. (esp. homicides, e.g.). Again, not questioning the validity of stats you cite, but merely pointing out the malleability of statistics to support an implicit point of view.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
Yes, the number of homicides did increase about 30 per year.
Motor Vehicle Theft is also up a lot! And Arson increased a lot in 2020 and then decreased a lot (so far) in 2021.
Everything else seems either down or nearly the same.

Not sure why you think most are up...
Well, the increase in homicide rates is *so far in 2021* (stats through July I believe) and so are the other categories. So the homicide rate information is horrific, and even if some other 2021 categories seem merely at par with 2020, by the end of the year, they should project much higher.

But ultimately I have no brief to prove that DC is descended into some cesspool of crime. I hope not: I have close relations living there.

I only mean to show that as one wields statistics, rarely is the exponent of the numbers merely a wide-eyed and guileless reporter of objective truth. Usually, a subjective agenda is in play, sometimes almost unreflective, that subtly manipulates which numbers are presented, and how they are weighed.
cacophony
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 9:12 pm

Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by cacophony »

smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:04 am
cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:45 am
smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:32 am
cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:09 am
smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:00 am

Yes, it’s a mixed picture (as always). And, one can cherry-pick the stats, or discredit first-person anecdotal experience with stats, or alternatively, choose to bolster such anecdotal evidence with supporting statistical evidence. That’s pretty much always true.

Whether DC or Chicago, I wouldn’t cancel the planned weekend, too much to see and do. Of course, take sensible precautions, as suggested above.
This wasn't a case of cherry picking data to support an argument. I was curious what the stats said and simply reported the ones that seemed most relevant.
No kidding. Scanning these results most crime categories are up. (esp. homicides, e.g.). Again, not questioning the validity of stats you cite, but merely pointing out the malleability of statistics to support an implicit point of view.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
Yes, the number of homicides did increase about 30 per year.
Motor Vehicle Theft is also up a lot! And Arson increased a lot in 2020 and then decreased a lot (so far) in 2021.
Everything else seems either down or nearly the same.

Not sure why you think most are up...
Well, the increase in homicide rates is *so far in 2021* (stats through July I believe) and so are the other categories. So the homicide rate information is horrific, and even if some other 2021 categories seem merely at par with 2020, by the end of the year, they should project much higher.

But ultimately I have no brief to prove that DC is descended into some cesspool of crime. I hope not: I have close relations living there.

I only mean to show that as one wields statistics, rarely is the exponent of the numbers merely a wide-eyed and guileless reporter of objective truth. Usually, a subjective agenda is in play, sometimes almost unreflective, that subtly manipulates which numbers are presented, and how they are weighed.
To be clear, I was more looking at the comparison between 2019 vs 2020/2021 (in response to the comment that crime had escalated dramatically since the pandemic began). For that, both violent and overall crime seem to be lower.
smectym
Posts: 1530
Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 5:07 pm

Re: Gauging Risk to Personal Safety While Traveling (Major American City)

Post by smectym »

cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:11 am
smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:04 am
cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:45 am
smectym wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:32 am
cacophony wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:09 am

This wasn't a case of cherry picking data to support an argument. I was curious what the stats said and simply reported the ones that seemed most relevant.
No kidding. Scanning these results most crime categories are up. (esp. homicides, e.g.). Again, not questioning the validity of stats you cite, but merely pointing out the malleability of statistics to support an implicit point of view.

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
Yes, the number of homicides did increase about 30 per year.
Motor Vehicle Theft is also up a lot! And Arson increased a lot in 2020 and then decreased a lot (so far) in 2021.
Everything else seems either down or nearly the same.

Not sure why you think most are up...
Well, the increase in homicide rates is *so far in 2021* (stats through July I believe) and so are the other categories. So the homicide rate information is horrific, and even if some other 2021 categories seem merely at par with 2020, by the end of the year, they should project much higher.

But ultimately I have no brief to prove that DC is descended into some cesspool of crime. I hope not: I have close relations living there.

I only mean to show that as one wields statistics, rarely is the exponent of the numbers merely a wide-eyed and guileless reporter of objective truth. Usually, a subjective agenda is in play, sometimes almost unreflective, that subtly manipulates which numbers are presented, and how they are weighed.
To be clear, I was more looking at the comparison between 2019 vs 2020/2021 (in response to the comment that crime had escalated dramatically since the pandemic began). For that, both violent and overall crime seem to be lower.
Got it, and I take your point. True enough.
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