Car repair vs buy dilemma

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DinkinFlicka
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Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by DinkinFlicka »

My wife and I currently drive a 2001 Toyota Avalon that has 220K miles on it. The car has been pretty reliable. We do regular oil changes and tire rotations but we recently did have to replace some brakes that failed early (parts covered under our mechanic's warranty) and fix some wiring that was chewed through by rodents. Since Jan 2019, our spread out monthly maintenance costs average ~$80/month.

We got the car at around 165K-170K miles from my wife's parents and we aren't quite certain when they last replaced the timing belt. Toyota's car service guide recommends replacing it every 90K miles. Today our mechanic voiced his concern that they don't have any record of replacing the belt since 170K miles, when they first started servicing our car. Assuming that the belt hasn't been replaced since 90K miles, he said it's not worth it to replace the belt (and water pump - I guess that usually gets replaced at the same time?) on a car this old. Some Googling leads me to believe that a timing belt (and water pump) replacement will be ~$800-$1000. Given the current used car market, that doesn't seem super unreasonable even though it's probably way more than the car is worth.

Outside this potential issue, the car seems to be in good shape. It does seem to drink oil, but they've never commented on it being an issue other than the dipstick being low during oil changes.

Some other tricky unknowns and constraints:
  1. We may relocate somewhere mid-2023 where we would no longer want a car. This is still uncertain and it's not clear yet what the probability of that move is.
  2. We drive ~15K miles per year which seems too much to cost-effectively lease a car in the short term, until future plans become clearer.
Assuming that the belt is in fact overdue for replacing (we are looking for previous service records to confirm this), are there any other pieces of information that should go into our decision making process? We are in between paying for the timing belt work and purchasing a used car. If we went the "buy used car" approach, I'm not sure what kind of used car to be purchasing in order to hedge against possibly selling it in 2 years. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
runner3081
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by runner3081 »

With the market, now is the time to keep limping along in older cars, rather than buying something.
whomever
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by whomever »

I just googled 'Toyota Avalon' and it looks like a new one costs $35K or so. Inflation/interest rates are changing pretty fast, but FWIW if you take a 3% rate $35K is worth about $1K a year. So a simplistic approach would be to replace when the repair costs exceed $1k a year.

We had a Civic that we bought new, maintained carefully, and sold at 285k miles only because we wanted air conditioning. It's hard to say when something major (engine, transmission) would have broken. In general, I think the frugal thing to do is to keep it until either the engine or transmission fails (or it rusts out if you are in one of those climates).
squirm
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by squirm »

Talk to a few other shops to see what they charge for a new timing belt. Seems to me you're going over board wanting to buy another car just because of that.
tibbitts
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tibbitts »

I wouldn't buy a newer used car to avoid the timing belt repair. You can do a little research to find out if you can get the work done cheaper, although having just had a repair done cheaper... well sometimes you get what you pay for with repair work, but other times not. In retrospect I should have just gone the replacement route, buying new - and am in the process of doing that. Repair work and the product you end up with when you're done varies a lot more than just buying new. What makes sense for you also depends on you finances and maybe how/where you use and garage the car.
Goal33
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Goal33 »

Don’t replace the timing belt. Don’t replace the water pump. Sell for a fortune in 2023.
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galawdawg
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by galawdawg »

Goal33 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:33 am Don’t replace the timing belt. Don’t replace the water pump. Sell for a fortune in 2023.
Before you follow this advice, I'd recommend that you determine whether the engine in your 2001 Avalon is an interference engine or a non-interference engine.

A timing belt failure in a non-interference engine will leave you stranded, however a timing belt failure in an interference engine will destroy your engine. If it is an interference engine with 220k miles and you aren't certain when, if ever, the belt has been replaced, then I'd suggest replacing it. If it was me, I'd replace it as the cost of doing so is probably about what you would pay in taxes alone for the purchase of a replacement vehicle. That car should be good for another 80k-100k (or six plus years) at least. You might get a few quotes from independent mechanics who specialize in Toyota service.

Tou can look at all of the service records for work performed by Toyota online: https://www.toyota.com/owners/my-vehicl ... ce-history. That may provide some information on whether the belt was changed (at least by a Toyota dealer) and if so, when.
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arthurdawg
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by arthurdawg »

galawdawg wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:45 am
Goal33 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:33 am Don’t replace the timing belt. Don’t replace the water pump. Sell for a fortune in 2023.
Before you follow this advice, I'd recommend that you determine whether the engine in your 2001 Avalon is an interference engine or a non-interference engine.

A timing belt failure in a non-interference engine will leave you stranded, however a timing belt failure in an interference engine will destroy your engine. If it is an interference engine with 220k miles and you aren't certain when, if ever, the belt has been replaced, then I'd suggest replacing it. If it was me, I'd replace it as the cost of doing so is probably about what you would pay in taxes alone for the purchase of a replacement vehicle. That car should be good for another 80k-100k (or six plus years) at least. You might get a few quotes from independent mechanics who specialize in Toyota service.

Tou can look at all of the service records for work performed by Toyota online: https://www.toyota.com/owners/my-vehicl ... ce-history. That may provide some information on whether the belt was changed (at least by a Toyota dealer) and if so, when.

I second this before fully deciding. I had a med school classmate have his belt go out on a bridge. Engine completely destroyed and a nice towing bill from a car stuck in a tight spot.

If losing the belt won't destroy the car, you could make a case to let it ride until you move and possibly don't need a car at all.

I just bought a smaller used Audi for child #3 last year... glad I missed the run-up in used vehicles!
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dknightd
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by dknightd »

I would ask the wife's parents if they have any recollection of replacing the timing belt.
Timing belts usually last longer than the recommended replacement interval. Sometimes much longer.
But if they fail it can be inconvenient, or perhaps catastrophic.
You drive quite a bit (which I guess is about average), so I assume you rely on having this vehicle.
Do you have a spare one handy? Sometimes it is best to have repairs done on your schedule, rather than finding yourself with a failed one when you need it most . . .
You might consider going to a Toyota (or other) dealer, looking at new options. They might offer you a lot for the trade in, and give you a fair price on a new replacement. Maybe. Some cars are in short supply, some are not. If you happen to like one that the dealer lot is full of, you might be able to get a good deal. The money you saved by not repairing the old one you could consider part of down payment.
If not, I'd probably replace the belt and water pump. I do not like getting stranded on the side of the road.
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Jack FFR1846
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

You're at a key point in the car's life. The timing belt needs to be changed. Either by you or by the next owner. The good news is that the car really is worth nothing with those miles and without documentation of a recent belt/pump change. You can ignore it but the Avalon is an interference engine. What that means is that if the timing belt either breaks or skips a couple teeth, your engine is done. Valves are pushed into the combustion chamber at the wrong time and the pistons come up and bend them at best, the valves break the pistons and gouge the cylinder walls pretty commonly.

What else could go wrong? You say it's been using oil for a while. The oil is going somewhere. Are there big oil spots under the car? If there are, that's great news. If there are not, that means oil is being burned and pushed into the catalytic converter. In time, that will plug the converter, stopping the engine. (see Beverly Hills cop.....banana in the tail pipe).

If you need the car for only a year, then you need the car for a year. $1000 is $83 a month and when you go to sell the car, you can hand the buyer a receipt for this, which is THE key maintenance item a buyer is going to want to see.
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Jags4186
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Jags4186 »

What I've never understood about cars...if a timing chain lasts forever and a timing belt needs to be changed every X miles or else catastrophic failure...why wouldn't all manufacturers use timing chains?
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by dknightd »

Jags4186 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:31 am What I've never understood about cars...if a timing chain lasts forever and a timing belt needs to be changed every X miles or else catastrophic failure...why wouldn't all manufacturers use timing chains?
Belts are cheaper, and easier (and perhaps more efficient). Chains and belts eventually fail.
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core4portfolio
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by core4portfolio »

Timing belt is key component. Make sure you change it.
In camry, due to coolant leak, it broke once and car stopped immediately and it looks 2 seconds for wheel to stop off.
Luckily, its early morning and not in highway !!!! i sold it to carmax for few bucks

Take decision quickly and dont ignore the importance of changing timing belt on time !!!!
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lazydavid
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by lazydavid »

Jags4186 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:31 am What I've never understood about cars...if a timing chain lasts forever and a timing belt needs to be changed every X miles or else catastrophic failure...why wouldn't all manufacturers use timing chains?
Timing belts are cheaper, quieter, easier to keep in tension, don't have to be sealed from the outside world, and don't degrade with poor oil maintenance.

I still think chains are preferable (and the market is moving back in that direction), but it's not all rainbows and unicorns.
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DinkinFlicka
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by DinkinFlicka »

galawdawg wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:45 am
Before you follow this advice, I'd recommend that you determine whether the engine in your 2001 Avalon is an interference engine or a non-interference engine.

A timing belt failure in a non-interference engine will leave you stranded, however a timing belt failure in an interference engine will destroy your engine. If it is an interference engine with 220k miles and you aren't certain when, if ever, the belt has been replaced, then I'd suggest replacing it. If it was me, I'd replace it as the cost of doing so is probably about what you would pay in taxes alone for the purchase of a replacement vehicle. That car should be good for another 80k-100k (or six plus years) at least. You might get a few quotes from independent mechanics who specialize in Toyota service.

Tou can look at all of the service records for work performed by Toyota online: https://www.toyota.com/owners/my-vehicl ... ce-history. That may provide some information on whether the belt was changed (at least by a Toyota dealer) and if so, when.
I'm pretty sure it's a non-interference engine. It has a 3.0L 1MZ-FE V6 engine which looks to be non-interference but forum post indicates that there can still be engine damage because of some VVT-i tech that the 2001 Avalon has. https://www.toyotanation.com/threads/1m ... n.1501978/

Thanks for the Toyota link. The last dealer service listed was at 64K miles and there's nothing listed about timing belts.
finite_difference
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by finite_difference »

I would replace the timing belt and not the water pump if cost is a concern. Because I don’t think losing the water pump will cause damage to the engine.

Make sure your tires are in good shape too.

Edit: some engines do burn oil slowly. Check your oil once a month and if it’s slow maybe every 3 months or so, and fill as needed. If you don’t have oil spots and the oil burn is slow, then not an issue I’d bother to fix. I hate oil spots though and would ask the mechanic for a fix in that scenario.
Last edited by finite_difference on Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Topic Author
DinkinFlicka
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by DinkinFlicka »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:16 am What else could go wrong? You say it's been using oil for a while. The oil is going somewhere. Are there big oil spots under the car? If there are, that's great news. If there are not, that means oil is being burned and pushed into the catalytic converter. In time, that will plug the converter, stopping the engine. (see Beverly Hills cop.....banana in the tail pipe).
Yeah, there are no oil spots so we've reached the same conclusion that's it's being used up by the engine. I've read about some Avalon's having an "engine sludge" problem. Is this the same thing?
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tibbitts »

lazydavid wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:05 am
Jags4186 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:31 am What I've never understood about cars...if a timing chain lasts forever and a timing belt needs to be changed every X miles or else catastrophic failure...why wouldn't all manufacturers use timing chains?
Timing belts are cheaper, quieter, easier to keep in tension, don't have to be sealed from the outside world, and don't degrade with poor oil maintenance.

I still think chains are preferable (and the market is moving back in that direction), but it's not all rainbows and unicorns.
The worst case is a belt concealed to the extent a chain has to be, and just as hard to service. I once bought a car and looked specifically for one with a chain. Little did I know that to replace the water pump, which of course failed, you had to remove the chain.
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galawdawg
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by galawdawg »

DinkinFlicka wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:32 am
galawdawg wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:45 am
Before you follow this advice, I'd recommend that you determine whether the engine in your 2001 Avalon is an interference engine or a non-interference engine.

A timing belt failure in a non-interference engine will leave you stranded, however a timing belt failure in an interference engine will destroy your engine. If it is an interference engine with 220k miles and you aren't certain when, if ever, the belt has been replaced, then I'd suggest replacing it. If it was me, I'd replace it as the cost of doing so is probably about what you would pay in taxes alone for the purchase of a replacement vehicle. That car should be good for another 80k-100k (or six plus years) at least. You might get a few quotes from independent mechanics who specialize in Toyota service.

Tou can look at all of the service records for work performed by Toyota online: https://www.toyota.com/owners/my-vehicl ... ce-history. That may provide some information on whether the belt was changed (at least by a Toyota dealer) and if so, when.
I'm pretty sure it's a non-interference engine. It has a 3.0L 1MZ-FE V6 engine which looks to be non-interference but forum post indicates that there can still be engine damage because of some VVT-i tech that the 2001 Avalon has. https://www.toyotanation.com/threads/1m ... n.1501978/

Thanks for the Toyota link. The last dealer service listed was at 64K miles and there's nothing listed about timing belts.
Glad to be of help. Like I said, if it was me, and I drive a 2004 Lexus LS430 (interference engine) with about 175K miles, I would go ahead and replace it. And I'd recommend you also replace the water pump, it is relatively inexpensive to go ahead and do that while the timing belt is being changed. For my LS430, I paid $900 to replace the timing belt, thermostat, thermostat casket, front crankshaft seal, water pump, flush and fill coolant, flush and fill brake fluid, and an oil change. It would have been $800 without the water pump. That was about five years ago at an independent Lexus service center, I'm sure costs have increased somewhat since then. I'm due to have it done again in about 5K miles.

Replacing the timing belt is likely your most cost-effective way to have a reliable vehicle until you relocate. While you might be able to get another two years and 30K miles out of the vehicle without the service, if you risk it and you are wrong... :shock:
iamblessed
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by iamblessed »

With the way the car market is now. I would put on the belt for $1000 and call it cheap.
gac1979
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by gac1979 »

Carfax has a free service that allows you to register your vehicle and tracks its repair history. You can add the repairs/maintenance, but if your shop reports to carfax (many do), then your maintenance is automatically recorded.

Here’s the nice part - this will also show the maintenance previous done to a vehicle. Sort of like the Toyota link discussed above, but this is more comprehensive. So, you may be able to discover when the timing belt was last changed.

https://www.carfax.com/Service/

This is different that a carfax report that you purchase. This is service maintenance/repairs only and does not include all of accident history etc.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by lazydavid »

DinkinFlicka wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:38 am Yeah, there are no oil spots so we've reached the same conclusion that's it's being used up by the engine. I've read about some Avalon's having an "engine sludge" problem. Is this the same thing?
Not exactly. That engine has very narrow oil passages, so if the oil is not changed regularly and a high-quality oil used, it can start to separate and deposit a very thick sludge (not hard like varnish) that eventually clogs those passages and causes engine damages. What's left would likely burn off and you could see losses there. That said, if you've been changing every 5k or so with a full synthetic or blend, you're unlikely to be experiencing sludge in this engine.
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DinkinFlicka
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by DinkinFlicka »

gac1979 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:52 am Carfax has a free service that allows you to register your vehicle and tracks its repair history. You can add the repairs/maintenance, but if your shop reports to carfax (many do), then your maintenance is automatically recorded.

Here’s the nice part - this will also show the maintenance previous done to a vehicle. Sort of like the Toyota link discussed above, but this is more comprehensive. So, you may be able to discover when the timing belt was last changed.

https://www.carfax.com/Service/

This is different that a carfax report that you purchase. This is service maintenance/repairs only and does not include all of accident history etc.
This is neat! Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the shops that did maintenance after the dealer uploaded to CarFax. The last entry in the service history is the same as what the Toyota history stated (the maintenance done at 65K miles).

The CarFax "repair estimate" does say that timing belt + water pump replacement will cost ~$1500 ($900 for the timing belt, $250 for the water pump, $350 for labor). I'll call our shop and some local ones to see what their estimates are.
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DinkinFlicka
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by DinkinFlicka »

Our mechanic gave an estimate of $800 for timing belt and water pump replacement. That seems pretty reasonable given the estimates I've seen online. I'll still call another person in the area to get an idea, but we'll probably go with our person since we have a relationship with them.

Our mechanic's larger concern was if the belt snaps while we are driving, there might be damage even though it's not an interference engine. It looks like he has the same uncertainty as the people on the Toyota forums about whether a 2001 Avalon has an interference engine or not.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Wannaretireearly »

DinkinFlicka wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:59 pm Our mechanic gave an estimate of $800 for timing belt and water pump replacement. That seems pretty reasonable given the estimates I've seen online. I'll still call another person in the area to get an idea, but we'll probably go with our person since we have a relationship with them.

Our mechanic's larger concern was if the belt snaps while we are driving, there might be damage even though it's not an interference engine. It looks like he has the same uncertainty as the people on the Toyota forums about whether a 2001 Avalon has an interference engine or not.
Shouldn't the mechanic be able to tell visually and give some idea on the condition of the belt?
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DiamondplateDave
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by DiamondplateDave »

I had a 2002 Hyundai Sonata 2.7 V6 with a timing belt. I bought it with just over 100K in 2007. I think one reason the seller sold it to me is that the warranty was up and it was overdue for the timing belt (about 30Kmi and 12 months IIRC). I finally paid a independent shop to replace the belt, pump and the...tensioner and pulley? This cost me about $800 in 2010. It got rid of that nagging feeling of unease that the car might break down; I wish I had done it 2 years earlier. I gave the mechanic a gallon of Hyundai Magic Coolant and a gallon of distilled water. The mechanic used a Gates belt; he couldn't get one...pulley? so that didn't get changed. Anyhow, I figured that it wouldn't be getting changed again, because it would be more than the value of the car (not that I consider that a rule of thumb).
My recommendation? If you like the car, and it doesn't have numerous aches and pains, get it fixed. You'll get the peace of mind, you'll avoid buying another at what most agree is a sub-optimal time, you might get a decent part of the money you spend on the repair back when you sell, and you may help somebody who is in dire straits wind up with a cheap but serviceable used car that can get them to work while they establish themselves in a position to get a better car.
If you drive this car 15Kmi a year, I would replace the belt, pump, tensioners and pulleys, plus the main hoses and the coolant. If you are up to it, order the parts and find a mechanic who will install them. The belt is 90% of the work; I can't believe a pump is $250 but I never had an Avalon. Price the parts on Rock Auto.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tomsense76 »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:03 pm
DinkinFlicka wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:59 pm Our mechanic gave an estimate of $800 for timing belt and water pump replacement. That seems pretty reasonable given the estimates I've seen online. I'll still call another person in the area to get an idea, but we'll probably go with our person since we have a relationship with them.

Our mechanic's larger concern was if the belt snaps while we are driving, there might be damage even though it's not an interference engine. It looks like he has the same uncertainty as the people on the Toyota forums about whether a 2001 Avalon has an interference engine or not.
Shouldn't the mechanic be able to tell visually and give some idea on the condition of the belt?
Not easily no. Part of the reason it is this expensive is the time the car mechanic needs to put in to get to the belt. At that point it is frankly just worth it to replace it. The water pump is also nestled in there, which is why the mechanic is suggesting to just replace both.

Edit: I should add the owner may recognize symptoms of a bad timing belt ( https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/sy ... iming-belt ), but this would only be clear by paying close attention to how the car is running. Even then these symptoms may or may not show up.
Last edited by tomsense76 on Fri Jun 25, 2021 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tomsense76
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tomsense76 »

OP the amount quoted for this work seems reasonable. Had a much older Toyota than yours and an Infiniti both used, which needed this work done and the cost was around that. If you wanted to shop around for quotes, that seems fine, but I wouldn't expect them to deviate much. TBH if you have a mechanic you like and trust, that's a relationship worth keeping in my book.

It sounds like this car has been pretty good to you. If I were you, I'd be tempted to get the work done and try driving this car a bit longer. Especially given you may only drive the car for a year or two more.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by whodidntante »

You have a textbook hooptie. A car that isn't worth fixing. But you probably punch a hole in the floor and sell it as a Fred Flintstone special in this crazy market.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by orange2334 »

Vote to fix it, keep it. It is a Toyota after all.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Outer Marker »

The KBB value on the car is about $1,500. A timing belt change costs about $1,000. I would not sink $1,000 of heavy preventive maintenance into a car that old, that high mileage, and that low value. I'd simply take my chances and drive it till it fails. You may yet get quite a few more miles out of it for "free." If you go on a long trip, rent or borrow a reliable car. For local driving, a breakdown is not that big a deal. Get out your cell phone and call a friend or a cab. Investing $1,000 in a belt won't raise KBB a dime.
tibbitts
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tibbitts »

Outer Marker wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 9:20 pm The KBB value on the car is about $1,500. A timing belt change costs about $1,000. I would not sink $1,000 of heavy preventive maintenance into a car that old, that high mileage, and that low value. I'd simply take my chances and drive it till it fails. You may yet get quite a few more miles out of it for "free." If you go on a long trip, rent or borrow a reliable car. For local driving, a breakdown is not that big a deal. Get out your cell phone and call a friend or a cab. Investing $1,000 in a belt won't raise KBB a dime.
I think the practicality of renting for trips has taken a nosedive in many cases, due to the huge increase in rental prices. I'd often rent just to prevent putting miles on my car and/or have a nicer car, but probably wouldn't today. And borrowing a car... that would be a minefield. Just tonight I spoke to someone who rented a car two weeks ago: $3k for the week!
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Outer Marker »

tibbitts wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 9:48 pm I think the practicality of renting for trips has taken a nosedive in many cases, due to the huge increase in rental prices. I'd often rent just to prevent putting miles on my car and/or have a nicer car, but probably wouldn't today. And borrowing a car... that would be a minefield. Just tonight I spoke to someone who rented a car two weeks ago: $3k for the week!
I know we're in something of a temporary bubble on rental (which have historically been dirt cheap). That's the only reason I floated the notion of borrowing. Depends on how good your friends are! I've borrowed a car on an extended basis while I was waiting on one to be built in Germany. I put on a new set of tires as a thank-you. Honestly, if I couldn't find a cheap rental, I'd just do the long trip knowing I might be buying a one-way return on Southwest. Make sure AAA roadside assistance is paid up.

I'd also add that even if the timing belt fails and the engine seizes, it will sill have salvage value as a trade-in or wholesale. I just can't see putting $1,000 discretionary maintenance into a $1,500 car that's running fine.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Watty »

DinkinFlicka wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:15 pm Toyota Avalon that has 220K miles on it.

We may relocate somewhere mid-2023 where we would no longer want a car. This is still uncertain and it's not clear yet what the probability of that move is.
.....

We drive ~15K miles per year which seems too much to cost-effectively lease a car in the short term, until future plans become clearer.
It gets really hard to justify keeping a high mileage 20 year old car if you don't do most car repairs yourself.

A couple of concerns I would have would be;
1) If you approve the suggested work then they may find a lot more work that needs to be done.

2) I would not bet on the car lasting another 2 years and 30K miles.

3) It sounds like the car is in pretty good shape. Don't underestimate what it might sell for if you can find someone who can work on the car themself.

4) You may be right about leasing not being a good option for you because you drive 15K miles a year but an alternative would be to buy a car with a car loan then then sell it in two years if you no longer need it then. You would not know just what you could sell it for then but you can look for cars that do not depreciate quickly and even in normal times some cars like Toyotas or Hondas do not depreciate quickly.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by bob60014 »

Jags4186 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:31 am What I've never understood about cars...if a timing chain lasts forever and a timing belt needs to be changed every X miles or else catastrophic failure...why wouldn't all manufacturers use timing chains?
A belt weighs less than the chain. It's about weight reduction for better gas mileage.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Sandtrap »

Neither replace the timing belt now nor buy a used car.
Replace the timing belt when it needs to be replaced or if it gives you peace of mind.

A middle path of financial options.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Jags4186 »

bob60014 wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 7:09 am
Jags4186 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:31 am What I've never understood about cars...if a timing chain lasts forever and a timing belt needs to be changed every X miles or else catastrophic failure...why wouldn't all manufacturers use timing chains?
A belt weighs less than the chain. It's about weight reduction for better gas mileage.
I don’t know why, but this reminds me of this time I met this guy who was bragging about how his new exhaust system cut off 20lbs of weight from his Corvette. Meanwhile he had a 30lb beer gut.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by galawdawg »

DinkinFlicka wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:59 pm Our mechanic gave an estimate of $800 for timing belt and water pump replacement. That seems pretty reasonable given the estimates I've seen online. I'll still call another person in the area to get an idea, but we'll probably go with our person since we have a relationship with them.

Our mechanic's larger concern was if the belt snaps while we are driving, there might be damage even though it's not an interference engine. It looks like he has the same uncertainty as the people on the Toyota forums about whether a 2001 Avalon has an interference engine or not.
I'd say that is your most cost-effective option to have reliable transportation for the next two or more years. Replacement of both the timing belt and water pump for $800 is a very reasonable price. Is he going to use genuine Toyota (Aisin OEM) parts? If not, I'd recommend you insist on the genuine parts.

And while you may be able to find a shop that can do it for $50-$75 less, I'd recommend you stick with your trusted mechanic. It will be worth it.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by jmw »

This is not a good time to buy a car, new or used.

I think I'd try to get as many "free" miles as possible from not replacing the timing belt due to the low value of the Toyota. If you buy new or newish, you are paying taxes, depreciation, global chip shortage tax, and maybe the new car warranty. The "included" new car warranty is not free. You are getting fleeced the same way as a Best Buy customer lining the pocket of the blue shirt. If you have n+1 low value junker cars, you can rotate in another car right away and start saving up for the extra car. Unfortunately, I would not buy any vehicle right now until I really had to even if I was at n cars due to a breakdown. I'm praying the global chip shortage will end in a year or two.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by wander »

Op, for your information, a friend of my drives a 370k mile toyota Avalon that its timing belt was last replaced at 140k mile. But, I don't recommend it. :D
You can check if it is VVTi (interference) or non VVTi (non interference). If it is a non interfence engine, you can drive it until the timing belt breaks. It's just inconvenient when it happens.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by arthurdawg »

Jags4186 wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 8:48 am
bob60014 wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 7:09 am
Jags4186 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:31 am What I've never understood about cars...if a timing chain lasts forever and a timing belt needs to be changed every X miles or else catastrophic failure...why wouldn't all manufacturers use timing chains?
A belt weighs less than the chain. It's about weight reduction for better gas mileage.
I don’t know why, but this reminds me of this time I met this guy who was bragging about how his new exhaust system cut off 20lbs of weight from his Corvette. Meanwhile he had a 30lb beer gut.

Kinda like my friend who is a big hiker... he drills holes in his tootbrush handle to reduce the weight.

I think it is a psychological benefit.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by snackdog »

Cheapest option is to do nothing. It may break tomorrow or in ten years. Second cheapest is to do the repairs and drive it another 5-10 years. Buying another car is dumb and expensive. I would do nothing.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tibbitts »

bob60014 wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 7:09 am
Jags4186 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:31 am What I've never understood about cars...if a timing chain lasts forever and a timing belt needs to be changed every X miles or else catastrophic failure...why wouldn't all manufacturers use timing chains?
A belt weighs less than the chain. It's about weight reduction for better gas mileage.
I'd guess it was more of a cost-savings thing, and the belt may be quieter as well.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tibbitts »

jmw wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 3:34 pm This is not a good time to buy a car, new or used.

I think I'd try to get as many "free" miles as possible from not replacing the timing belt due to the low value of the Toyota. If you buy new or newish, you are paying taxes, depreciation, global chip shortage tax, and maybe the new car warranty. The "included" new car warranty is not free. You are getting fleeced the same way as a Best Buy customer lining the pocket of the blue shirt. If you have n+1 low value junker cars, you can rotate in another car right away and start saving up for the extra car. Unfortunately, I would not buy any vehicle right now until I really had to even if I was at n cars due to a breakdown. I'm praying the global chip shortage will end in a year or two.
Even if not a necessity, two years of your life is long time to go without a pleasure/convenience/whatever in exchange for what is only the possibility, not necessarily even the likelihood, of saving a few dollars. That doesn't seem like a good tradeoff to me. Also very, very few people are in a position to have n+1 "junker" cars due to lack of physical space for storage.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Teague »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:03 pm
DinkinFlicka wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:59 pm Our mechanic gave an estimate of $800 for timing belt and water pump replacement. That seems pretty reasonable given the estimates I've seen online. I'll still call another person in the area to get an idea, but we'll probably go with our person since we have a relationship with them.

Our mechanic's larger concern was if the belt snaps while we are driving, there might be damage even though it's not an interference engine. It looks like he has the same uncertainty as the people on the Toyota forums about whether a 2001 Avalon has an interference engine or not.
Shouldn't the mechanic be able to tell visually and give some idea on the condition of the belt?
Unfortunately, no, not at all.

Timing belts are toothed. The structure of the belt, and the teeth, is maintained by reinforcing fibers running longitudinally through the belt. It is these fibers, completely unseen below the rubberized outside, that eventually fail.

Timing belts do not generally break in a traditional sense. Rather, the embedded fibers eventually fail, allowing teeth to strip off, making a smooth section that does not engage with the cogs on the crank and cam shafts. So the pistons keep moving while valves remain stationary. In an interference engine the result is usually catastrophic (bent valves, holes in piston crowns) failure.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tibbitts »

I think the "do nothing" advice has to be tempered by the implications of failure, which varies considerably according to the use of the vehicles. That would be true with other aspects of maintenance as well of course.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by tibbitts »

Teague wrote: Sun Jun 27, 2021 12:56 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:03 pm
DinkinFlicka wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:59 pm Our mechanic gave an estimate of $800 for timing belt and water pump replacement. That seems pretty reasonable given the estimates I've seen online. I'll still call another person in the area to get an idea, but we'll probably go with our person since we have a relationship with them.

Our mechanic's larger concern was if the belt snaps while we are driving, there might be damage even though it's not an interference engine. It looks like he has the same uncertainty as the people on the Toyota forums about whether a 2001 Avalon has an interference engine or not.
Shouldn't the mechanic be able to tell visually and give some idea on the condition of the belt?
Unfortunately, no, not at all.

Timing belts are toothed. The structure of the belt, and the teeth, is maintained by reinforcing fibers running longitudinally through the belt. It is these fibers, completely unseen below the rubberized outside, that eventually fail.

Timing belts do not generally break in a traditional sense. Rather, the embedded fibers eventually fail, allowing teeth to strip off, making a smooth section that does not engage with the cogs on the crank and cam shafts. So the pistons keep moving while valves remain stationary. In an interference engine the result is usually catastrophic (bent valves, holes in piston crowns) failure.
That's what happened to my belt: the belt didn't break; only a few teeth failed. In many vehicles it's not possible to visually inspect the belt without doing so much work that it wouldn't make sense to not replace it once you'd gotten that far, but I don't think visual inspection would have helped in my case (failure at about 103k miles.)
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Teague »

tomsense76 wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:55 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:03 pm
DinkinFlicka wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:59 pm Our mechanic gave an estimate of $800 for timing belt and water pump replacement. That seems pretty reasonable given the estimates I've seen online. I'll still call another person in the area to get an idea, but we'll probably go with our person since we have a relationship with them.

Our mechanic's larger concern was if the belt snaps while we are driving, there might be damage even though it's not an interference engine. It looks like he has the same uncertainty as the people on the Toyota forums about whether a 2001 Avalon has an interference engine or not.
Shouldn't the mechanic be able to tell visually and give some idea on the condition of the belt?
Not easily no. Part of the reason it is this expensive is the time the car mechanic needs to put in to get to the belt. At that point it is frankly just worth it to replace it. The water pump is also nestled in there, which is why the mechanic is suggesting to just replace both.

Edit: I should add the owner may recognize symptoms of a bad timing belt ( https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/sy ... iming-belt ), but this would only be clear by paying close attention to how the car is running. Even then these symptoms may or may not show up.
I'm sorry, but that article has very little good info and tons of just plain wrong info. Symptoms of a failing belt include a ticking sound, engine running rough, or oil leaking? Total hogwash.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by Outer Marker »

tibbitts wrote: Sun Jun 27, 2021 12:15 pm
jmw wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 3:34 pm This is not a good time to buy a car, new or used.

I think I'd try to get as many "free" miles as possible from not replacing the timing belt due to the low value of the Toyota. If you buy new or newish, you are paying taxes, depreciation, global chip shortage tax, and maybe the new car warranty. The "included" new car warranty is not free. You are getting fleeced the same way as a Best Buy customer lining the pocket of the blue shirt. If you have n+1 low value junker cars, you can rotate in another car right away and start saving up for the extra car. Unfortunately, I would not buy any vehicle right now until I really had to even if I was at n cars due to a breakdown. I'm praying the global chip shortage will end in a year or two.
Even if not a necessity, two years of your life is long time to go without a pleasure/convenience/whatever in exchange for what is only the possibility, not necessarily even the likelihood, of saving a few dollars. That doesn't seem like a good tradeoff to me. Also very, very few people are in a position to have n+1 "junker" cars due to lack of physical space for storage.
Unless the OP wants a new new car - which does not seem to be the case - he is not going without any pleasure or convenience. He is certainly saving nearly $1,000 in discretionary preventative maintenance. There's no telling how many free miles are left in the car, but it costs nothing to find out. The repair cost is 2/3 the value of the vehicle. It reportedly "drinks oil" which has not been the case with any Japanese car I've owned. Perhaps needs a valve job. Then, what happens when the AC compressor goes . . .

There are three choices: (1) just drive it, (2) buy new, (3) replace the belt. Depending on how frugal you are, either of the first two options is fine. With option 3 you're quickly underwater in the car with immediate and likely future repair bills.
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Re: Car repair vs buy dilemma

Post by HereToLearn »

tibbitts wrote: Sun Jun 27, 2021 1:02 pm
Teague wrote: Sun Jun 27, 2021 12:56 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:03 pm
DinkinFlicka wrote: Fri Jun 25, 2021 6:59 pm Our mechanic gave an estimate of $800 for timing belt and water pump replacement. That seems pretty reasonable given the estimates I've seen online. I'll still call another person in the area to get an idea, but we'll probably go with our person since we have a relationship with them.

Our mechanic's larger concern was if the belt snaps while we are driving, there might be damage even though it's not an interference engine. It looks like he has the same uncertainty as the people on the Toyota forums about whether a 2001 Avalon has an interference engine or not.
Shouldn't the mechanic be able to tell visually and give some idea on the condition of the belt?
Unfortunately, no, not at all.

Timing belts are toothed. The structure of the belt, and the teeth, is maintained by reinforcing fibers running longitudinally through the belt. It is these fibers, completely unseen below the rubberized outside, that eventually fail.

Timing belts do not generally break in a traditional sense. Rather, the embedded fibers eventually fail, allowing teeth to strip off, making a smooth section that does not engage with the cogs on the crank and cam shafts. So the pistons keep moving while valves remain stationary. In an interference engine the result is usually catastrophic (bent valves, holes in piston crowns) failure.
That's what happened to my belt: the belt didn't break; only a few teeth failed. In many vehicles it's not possible to visually inspect the belt without doing so much work that it wouldn't make sense to not replace it once you'd gotten that far, but I don't think visual inspection would have helped in my case (failure at about 103k miles.)
May I ask what happened when it failed at 103K miles? I let the timing belt replacement go far too long in my Land Cruiser ten & half years ago; belt was replaced at 104K miles. I only know the mileage because I looked it up when reading this thread. 50K miles driven since belt was last changed, so even though the mileage does not suggest replacement, I am thinking of having it done now ten years later so that something catastrophic does not happen.

Can it be dangerous when the belt fails, say when driving fast on a very crowded stretch of I-95?
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