Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

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mrmass
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by mrmass »

I think of Tesla as a tech company that happens to sell cars, go to the moon, drills tunnels and buys bitcoin.
I'd buy a car from a car company.
Valuethinker
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by Valuethinker »

michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:00 pm
hi_there wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 6:56 pm If I was shopping for a long term EV, I think I would wait for a couple of years, given the increasing competition and pace of technological improvement. You would almost certainly get a better deal and possibly materially better technology by waiting, much more than would be the case for a gas vehicle.
That is sort of my thinking. The options with advanced tech/electric seem to be expanding at an exponential pace. However, if we are going to wait we would need some vehicle, maybe a cheap used one, to carry us over. The 2003 has around 190k miles and will not pass the emissions test and therefore cannot have the plates renewed. Fixing it is not really worth it. I don't even know if the emissions on it are bad. In my state if there is a check engine light on they won't pass you. They don't check actual emissions. They hook it up to the computer.
This might be the moment for a 3 year lease on a BMW or Mercedes?

You don't drive a lot of mileage. OK you will get stiffed on the depreciation, but in 3 years you will have more and better options re electric vehicles.

Presumably US EV subsidy runs out at some point, so that's something to consider.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by 02nz »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:14 am If you can wait a couple of years and can forgive VW’s history with the diesel scandal (I can’t, but I bear a grudge and probably shouldn’t), I’d consider the ID.4 and ID.5.
No need to wait a couple of years for the ID.4, it's literally arriving on our shores now from Germany. The ID.5 is coming a little later (it's basically the same thing, the Germans seem to like to offer the the option of paying several thousand dollars extra for "couple-like" styling, meaning less cargo space).

There will be a lot more choices in this space in the next couple of years. I think the most interesting so far are the Ford Mach-E (available now) and the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6, both built on the same platform and coming later this year.
rakamaka
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by rakamaka »

emoore wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:20 am
rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:12 am How many of you are willing to buy used 5 yr old iphone?
Same goes with 5 yr old Tesla.
People buy Tesla for cool factor. Not for long term reliability.
That's a terrible analogy. I cell phone is much much different than and electric car. EVs will eventually become the dominate form of personal transportation and I'm sure they will be able to run 15-20 years. There are 9-10 year old Tesla's out there that still work. It's NOT an iPhone.
I phone was game changer than old blackberry. iphone became dominant. there are still reliable and working 10 yr iphones. But no market for old iphone sellers.
People do take risk of buying new tech and change phone every 2-3 years than using reliable workhorse 10 yr old phone
Shine of new tech wears out fast by 1. age 2. rise of other dominant players
Same will happen with Tesla.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:12 am How many of you are willing to buy used 5 yr old iphone?
Same goes with 5 yr old Tesla.
People buy Tesla for cool factor. Not for long term reliability.
Raises hand.

I bought my "new" iPhone in the last year when I botched a battery replacement on my iPhone 5s, which I would have loved to have kept. I bought a used first gen iPhone SE. Why? Because I could not find another 5s, which I searched for.
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wander
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by wander »

rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:50 am
emoore wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:20 am
rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:12 am How many of you are willing to buy used 5 yr old iphone?
Same goes with 5 yr old Tesla.
People buy Tesla for cool factor. Not for long term reliability.
That's a terrible analogy. I cell phone is much much different than and electric car. EVs will eventually become the dominate form of personal transportation and I'm sure they will be able to run 15-20 years. There are 9-10 year old Tesla's out there that still work. It's NOT an iPhone.
I phone was game changer than old blackberry. iphone became dominant. there are still reliable and working 10 yr iphones. But no market for old iphone sellers.
People do take risk of buying new tech and change phone every 2-3 years than using reliable workhorse 10 yr old phone
Shine of new tech wears out fast by 1. age 2. rise of other dominant players
Same will happen with Tesla.
The reason I upgrade Iphone is because Apple stops old Iphones from updating OS. Keeping an old phones with old OS does not make any sense with Apps are moving to new OS. Tesla is allowing old car to update software so driving an old car does not make it outdated. Your comparison is not apple to apple in my opinion.
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michaeljc70
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by michaeljc70 »

wander wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:00 am
rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:50 am
emoore wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:20 am
rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:12 am How many of you are willing to buy used 5 yr old iphone?
Same goes with 5 yr old Tesla.
People buy Tesla for cool factor. Not for long term reliability.
That's a terrible analogy. I cell phone is much much different than and electric car. EVs will eventually become the dominate form of personal transportation and I'm sure they will be able to run 15-20 years. There are 9-10 year old Tesla's out there that still work. It's NOT an iPhone.
I phone was game changer than old blackberry. iphone became dominant. there are still reliable and working 10 yr iphones. But no market for old iphone sellers.
People do take risk of buying new tech and change phone every 2-3 years than using reliable workhorse 10 yr old phone
Shine of new tech wears out fast by 1. age 2. rise of other dominant players
Same will happen with Tesla.
The reason I upgrade Iphone is because Apple stops old Iphones from updating OS. Keeping an old phones with old OS does not make any sense with Apps are moving to new OS. Tesla is allowing old car to update software so driving an old car does not make it outdated. Your comparison is not apple to apple in my opinion.
As I alluded to above, Tesla may stop doing updates to older cars or at least all updates. They may not have the sensors/hardware for some features. They may not have enough CPU power or memory for new features that could come. They may pull an Apple and just want you to buy a new car. They might start charging older car owners for updates. Musk loves playing around with pricing and subscriptions.
TN_Boy
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by TN_Boy »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:10 am
wander wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:00 am
rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:50 am
emoore wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:20 am
rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:12 am How many of you are willing to buy used 5 yr old iphone?
Same goes with 5 yr old Tesla.
People buy Tesla for cool factor. Not for long term reliability.
That's a terrible analogy. I cell phone is much much different than and electric car. EVs will eventually become the dominate form of personal transportation and I'm sure they will be able to run 15-20 years. There are 9-10 year old Tesla's out there that still work. It's NOT an iPhone.
I phone was game changer than old blackberry. iphone became dominant. there are still reliable and working 10 yr iphones. But no market for old iphone sellers.
People do take risk of buying new tech and change phone every 2-3 years than using reliable workhorse 10 yr old phone
Shine of new tech wears out fast by 1. age 2. rise of other dominant players
Same will happen with Tesla.
The reason I upgrade Iphone is because Apple stops old Iphones from updating OS. Keeping an old phones with old OS does not make any sense with Apps are moving to new OS. Tesla is allowing old car to update software so driving an old car does not make it outdated. Your comparison is not apple to apple in my opinion.
As I alluded to above, Tesla may stop doing updates to older cars or at least all updates. They may not have the sensors/hardware for some features. They may not have enough CPU power or memory for new features that could come. They may pull an Apple and just want you to buy a new car. They might start charging older car owners for updates. Musk loves playing around with pricing and subscriptions.
(Speaking as a software engineer). At some point it becomes really expensive and annoying to keep supporting old hardware. Every update has to be tested on an ever-increasing range of platforms ... a bug found on any platform may result in respinning the update ... and retesting everywhere. It's a giant hassle and costs the company (I speak in general, not of Tesla in particular) a lot of money along with diverting engineering resources from adding new features.

I will have to say that I find Apple does a good job supporting older platforms. They may not allow you to update to the latest version, but they continue to push out security updates and general bug fixes for a long time. My phone is about five years old. It still works, and gets bug fixes, but does not support the latest IOS version. Which is absolutely reasonable given the age of the phone.

I don't know what Tesla will do ... they have a different problem, since a flaw in software may result in a safety issue forcing them to update even much older cars (all cars have a lot of software now of course) whether they want to or not.
acepedro45
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by acepedro45 »

The 2003 has around 190k miles and will not pass the emissions test and therefore cannot have the plates renewed. Fixing it is not really worth it. I don't even know if the emissions on it are bad. In my state if there is a check engine light on they won't pass you. They don't check actual emissions. They hook it up to the computer.
This is not your question regarding Tesla, so you'll have to excuse my comments that question your premise. The bolded statements seem contradictory to me. You have a check engine light but haven't diagnosed the problem.

If it were my car, I would get a free readout of the engine code and determine if there is likely a cost-effective remedy. That advice goes double if you don't drive much. However, this is Bogleheads so the advice on cars with problems more serious than a low gas tank is generally to replace with a Tesla.
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michaeljc70
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by michaeljc70 »

acepedro45 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:11 am
The 2003 has around 190k miles and will not pass the emissions test and therefore cannot have the plates renewed. Fixing it is not really worth it. I don't even know if the emissions on it are bad. In my state if there is a check engine light on they won't pass you. They don't check actual emissions. They hook it up to the computer.
This is not your question regarding Tesla, so you'll have to excuse my comments that question your premise. The bolded statements seem contradictory to me. You have a check engine light but haven't diagnosed the problem.

If it were my car, I would get a free readout of the engine code and determine if there is likely a cost-effective remedy. That advice goes double if you don't drive much. However, this is Bogleheads so the advice on cars with problems more serious than a low gas tank is generally to replace with a Tesla.
It was taken to a trusted mechanic. They turned the check engine light off but said it may not stay off (stayed off 2 weeks). They said that to fix this issue would be around $1500. My spouse took it in so I don't know the exact details. Not worth it given other issues with the SUV. This vehicle is on its last legs for several reasons but the emissions issue is a hard stop that keeps us from running it into the ground.
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eye.surgeon
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by eye.surgeon »

I owned a Tesla Model S for 5.5 years. I enjoyed it but it is not a car I would consider for long term ownership. Mine was a relative antique compared to the new ones when I sold it. A current model Camry or Accord or Lexus seems far better suited to long term ownership as the internal combustion engine has been perfected over 100 years.
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BrandonBogle
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BrandonBogle »

seawolf21 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:13 am
BrandonBogle wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:41 pm My early 2013 Model S has 96,000 miles on it. When new, it had 265 miles (on paper) rated range. Nowadays, I get 253 miles on a full charge. My screen was initially changed while under warranty (at the very end of it). Just recently the memory card (eMMC) was replaced. Other than a battery replacement in 2018, I've had no repairs that weren't part of Tesla's early teething problems.

Not 10 - 12 years, but I am at exactly 8 years and have only lost 5% of my battery's capacity.
Could you clarify getting battery replaced in 2018 and losing 5% at 8 years?
My apologies. I will update my prior post. My 12v battery (the one ever car has) had to be replaced in 2018. My 400v battery is still the original that came with the car.
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BrandonBogle
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BrandonBogle »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:10 am As I alluded to above, Tesla may stop doing updates to older cars or at least all updates. They may not have the sensors/hardware for some features. They may not have enough CPU power or memory for new features that could come. They may pull an Apple and just want you to buy a new car. They might start charging older car owners for updates. Musk loves playing around with pricing and subscriptions.
While that is definitely a possibility, Tesla has previously used OTA updates as a market distinguisher and thus far, even the 2012 Tesla have gotten all updates. My 2013 updated to the newer release just two weeks ago.

Additionally, us older cars with the older main computer (aka MCU1) can upgrade to the new main computer (aka MCU2) for $1,500. Then we will have the same computer that a brand new Tesla has. While that is a cost, it is not an unreasonable cost given the car’s age and that the upgrade is not a requirement for future updates, but for performance and features.

Using the iPhone analogy others have used, some of the older iPhones, even when they get the latest and greatest firmware update do not include every feature on that version of iOS that a newer iPhone gets. The same principle applies here.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by seawolf21 »

BrandonBogle wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:05 pm
seawolf21 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:13 am
BrandonBogle wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:41 pm My early 2013 Model S has 96,000 miles on it. When new, it had 265 miles (on paper) rated range. Nowadays, I get 253 miles on a full charge. My screen was initially changed while under warranty (at the very end of it). Just recently the memory card (eMMC) was replaced. Other than a battery replacement in 2018, I've had no repairs that weren't part of Tesla's early teething problems.

Not 10 - 12 years, but I am at exactly 8 years and have only lost 5% of my battery's capacity.
Could you clarify getting battery replaced in 2018 and losing 5% at 8 years?
My apologies. I will update my prior post. My 12v battery (the one ever car has) had to be replaced in 2018. My 400v battery is still the original that came with the car.
Ahh. Same here just replaced 12v battery in an ICE vehicle in service since 2017.
hi_there
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by hi_there »

BrandonBogle wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:13 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:10 am As I alluded to above, Tesla may stop doing updates to older cars or at least all updates. They may not have the sensors/hardware for some features. They may not have enough CPU power or memory for new features that could come. They may pull an Apple and just want you to buy a new car. They might start charging older car owners for updates. Musk loves playing around with pricing and subscriptions.
While that is definitely a possibility, Tesla has previously used OTA updates as a market distinguisher and thus far, even the 2012 Tesla have gotten all updates. My 2013 updated to the newer release just two weeks ago.

Additionally, us older cars with the older main computer (aka MCU1) can upgrade to the new main computer (aka MCU2) for $1,500. Then we will have the same computer that a brand new Tesla has. While that is a cost, it is not an unreasonable cost given the car’s age and that the upgrade is not a requirement for future updates, but for performance and features.

Using the iPhone analogy others have used, some of the older iPhones, even when they get the latest and greatest firmware update do not include every feature on that version of iOS that a newer iPhone gets. The same principle applies here.
This is an interesting question, both in general regarding software updates in cars, and also Tesla's approach. As software becomes a larger component of cars, it's probably going to be like any other replacement part of used cars. You can still buy OEM parts for 30 year old Hondas (I think). So, it is not unreasonable that software support will continue for a long time.

Tesla cars are like other electronic goods in a way, but the company will have to support old software for a longer time given high cost of the product. Even after that, it's not impossible that the cars will be able to continue with basic functionality without official updates; other cars use computers to control everything, but essentially never get software updates.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by jdb »

eye.surgeon wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:51 am A current model Camry or Accord or Lexus seems far better suited to long term ownership as the internal combustion engine has been perfected over 100 years.
They probably said that about the horse and buggy in 1900.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by iamlucky13 »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:10 am
wander wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:00 am The reason I upgrade Iphone is because Apple stops old Iphones from updating OS. Keeping an old phones with old OS does not make any sense with Apps are moving to new OS. Tesla is allowing old car to update software so driving an old car does not make it outdated. Your comparison is not apple to apple in my opinion.
As I alluded to above, Tesla may stop doing updates to older cars or at least all updates. They may not have the sensors/hardware for some features. They may not have enough CPU power or memory for new features that could come. They may pull an Apple and just want you to buy a new car. They might start charging older car owners for updates. Musk loves playing around with pricing and subscriptions.
I don't see this as a reason not to buy a new car if it is time for a new car. The same logic applies to any other car. Our 2013 Subaru has not received updates for automated lane-keeping, collision avoidance, or Apple Carplay/Android Auto. It doesn't have the hardware, even if Subaru wanted to offer updates.

It still does it's primary job basically the same as it did when it was the latest and greatest. We'll keep using it until either some newer feature is introduced that is sufficiently compelling, or age and reliability make keeping it uncompelling.

If the current Tesla driving experience, the low theoretical recurring cost, and the emissions reduction are worth the cost to you now, go ahead and buy now. If it's marginal, but some expected future feature would make it compelling, and has not been guaranteed as being available for later upgrade, wait for that new feature.

Regarding how the future market may affect resale value: at some point we have to just accept that we can't predict that perfectly. Make a reasonable estimate (the industry average is ~25% remaining value compared to MSRP after 10 years, and Tesla values so far follow the general trend), decide if the total estimated cost of ownership over the time you intend to keep the vehicle is worth it for the features you will get as discussed in the previous paragraph, and that will be your buy or wait decision.
michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:29 pmIf the range of new car X is now 350 miles, in 5 years won't it be quite a bit higher than that (in the same price range) making older models much less desirable?
No, it should be higher, but not enough to make anyone second guess their buying decision now. This is a common misperception of the electric car market. Regardless of what is happening with ancillary features like driver-assistance technologies, the core underlying technologies in the motors and batteries are following a gradual, evolutionary improvement. Motor efficiency can't get much better than it already is, so the main improvements to come have to be in the batteries.

I can't tell you how many "breakthrough" battery developments I've read about since I first took an interest in 2003 when the Mars Exploration Rovers launched with lithium ion batteries being a significant new capability enabler, but I'm sure it has averaged several per year. It's been a steady stream of university press releases that say things like, "with potentially double the energy density" but ultimately result in a few percent improvement in the real world, or turn out not to be commercially viable.

For all the hype Tesla tried to generate with their 2020 battery day presentation, the practical impact seems to have largely been overlooked. The forecast 56% reduction in battery costs sound huge, but it works out to about $3,000 off the cost of the least expensive Model 3 package (there will be other cost savings accomplished in the rest of the vehicle, though). The forecast energy density increase is 16%, which gives that car about 40 miles more range. That's significant progress, but it won't upend the used market.

They forecast that to be achieved in 5 years, which because Elon Musk can't do math, works out to a 2030 time frame for achieving it (which is more in line with what others in the industry forecast).

So if you buy now, when you want to sell your car a decade from now, its price will be affected by the improvements that have occurred over that time, but it won't radically change the math.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by marc in merrimack »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:57 am
rakamaka wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:12 am How many of you are willing to buy used 5 yr old iphone?
Same goes with 5 yr old Tesla.
People buy Tesla for cool factor. Not for long term reliability.
Raises hand.

I bought my "new" iPhone in the last year when I botched a battery replacement on my iPhone 5s, which I would have loved to have kept. I bought a used first gen iPhone SE. Why? Because I could not find another 5s, which I searched for.
Can’t imagine why you’d prefer a 5s over the first gen iPhone SE. They’re outwardly the same, the latter having newer tech and is still supported by Apple.

I’m only now replacing my 4+ year-old SE because of insufficient memory and a failing lightning connector. I considered simply replacing the SE with another (the first gen can still be found), but apparently Verizon won’t activate them anymore on their network. Bands change, standards change...
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by marc in merrimack »

02nz wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:32 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:14 am If you can wait a couple of years and can forgive VW’s history with the diesel scandal (I can’t, but I bear a grudge and probably shouldn’t), I’d consider the ID.4 and ID.5.
No need to wait a couple of years for the ID.4, it's literally arriving on our shores now from Germany. The ID.5 is coming a little later (it's basically the same thing, the Germans seem to like to offer the the option of paying several thousand dollars extra for "couple-like" styling, meaning less cargo space).

There will be a lot more choices in this space in the next couple of years. I think the most interesting so far are the Ford Mach-E (available now) and the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6, both built on the same platform and coming later this year.
Good to know about the Hyundai/Kia offerings. And it should be pointed out that Tesla will be coming out ‘soon’ with a smaller, cheaper Model 2.
Jim Beaux
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by Jim Beaux »

In the next 5 years most manufactures will be offering EV's, and as a result we can expect today's technology to greatly expand .

So my issue is- Comparatively, what value is an EV that requires 1 hour to recharge every 250 miles vs one that recharges in 5 mins and go 300 miles?

Google "Moore's Law" for more insight.
Get Ready For The Battery Revolution
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikemontgo ... evolution/
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by alfaspider »

marc in merrimack wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:24 pm
02nz wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:32 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:14 am If you can wait a couple of years and can forgive VW’s history with the diesel scandal (I can’t, but I bear a grudge and probably shouldn’t), I’d consider the ID.4 and ID.5.
No need to wait a couple of years for the ID.4, it's literally arriving on our shores now from Germany. The ID.5 is coming a little later (it's basically the same thing, the Germans seem to like to offer the the option of paying several thousand dollars extra for "couple-like" styling, meaning less cargo space).

There will be a lot more choices in this space in the next couple of years. I think the most interesting so far are the Ford Mach-E (available now) and the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6, both built on the same platform and coming later this year.
Good to know about the Hyundai/Kia offerings. And it should be pointed out that Tesla will be coming out ‘soon’ with a smaller, cheaper Model 2.
Since they aren't taking reservations and we haven't seen test mules running about, I'd be shocked if the Model 2 is available for purchase anytime in the next 2 years. Realistically, I wouldn't expect it before 2025 (after the cybertruck, semi, and roadster 2.0 arrive).
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by marc in merrimack »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:44 pm
marc in merrimack wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:24 pm
02nz wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:32 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:14 am If you can wait a couple of years and can forgive VW’s history with the diesel scandal (I can’t, but I bear a grudge and probably shouldn’t), I’d consider the ID.4 and ID.5.
No need to wait a couple of years for the ID.4, it's literally arriving on our shores now from Germany. The ID.5 is coming a little later (it's basically the same thing, the Germans seem to like to offer the the option of paying several thousand dollars extra for "couple-like" styling, meaning less cargo space).

There will be a lot more choices in this space in the next couple of years. I think the most interesting so far are the Ford Mach-E (available now) and the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6, both built on the same platform and coming later this year.
Good to know about the Hyundai/Kia offerings. And it should be pointed out that Tesla will be coming out ‘soon’ with a smaller, cheaper Model 2.
Since they aren't taking reservations and we haven't seen test mules running about, I'd be shocked if the Model 2 is available for purchase anytime in the next 2 years. Realistically, I wouldn't expect it before 2025 (after the cybertruck, semi, and roadster 2.0 arrive).
Can’t imagine it’ll be that long. My understanding is that Tesla will this year be doing qualification testing in China on the Model 2.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by alfaspider »

marc in merrimack wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:48 pm
alfaspider wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:44 pm
marc in merrimack wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:24 pm
02nz wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:32 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:14 am If you can wait a couple of years and can forgive VW’s history with the diesel scandal (I can’t, but I bear a grudge and probably shouldn’t), I’d consider the ID.4 and ID.5.
No need to wait a couple of years for the ID.4, it's literally arriving on our shores now from Germany. The ID.5 is coming a little later (it's basically the same thing, the Germans seem to like to offer the the option of paying several thousand dollars extra for "couple-like" styling, meaning less cargo space).

There will be a lot more choices in this space in the next couple of years. I think the most interesting so far are the Ford Mach-E (available now) and the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6, both built on the same platform and coming later this year.
Good to know about the Hyundai/Kia offerings. And it should be pointed out that Tesla will be coming out ‘soon’ with a smaller, cheaper Model 2.
Since they aren't taking reservations and we haven't seen test mules running about, I'd be shocked if the Model 2 is available for purchase anytime in the next 2 years. Realistically, I wouldn't expect it before 2025 (after the cybertruck, semi, and roadster 2.0 arrive).
Can’t imagine it’ll be that long. My understanding is that Tesla will this year be doing qualification testing in China on the Model 2.
It's possible it will initially be Chinese market only.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by wander »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:19 am
acepedro45 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:11 am
The 2003 has around 190k miles and will not pass the emissions test and therefore cannot have the plates renewed. Fixing it is not really worth it. I don't even know if the emissions on it are bad. In my state if there is a check engine light on they won't pass you. They don't check actual emissions. They hook it up to the computer.
This is not your question regarding Tesla, so you'll have to excuse my comments that question your premise. The bolded statements seem contradictory to me. You have a check engine light but haven't diagnosed the problem.

If it were my car, I would get a free readout of the engine code and determine if there is likely a cost-effective remedy. That advice goes double if you don't drive much. However, this is Bogleheads so the advice on cars with problems more serious than a low gas tank is generally to replace with a Tesla.
It was taken to a trusted mechanic. They turned the check engine light off but said it may not stay off (stayed off 2 weeks). They said that to fix this issue would be around $1500. My spouse took it in so I don't know the exact details. Not worth it given other issues with the SUV. This vehicle is on its last legs for several reasons but the emissions issue is a hard stop that keeps us from running it into the ground.
My common sense is to find out from your trusted mechanic what problem with the car. If you don't know what the problem is, then how can you say fixing is not worth it?
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by squirm »

Jim Beaux wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:43 pm In the next 5 years most manufactures will be offering EV's, and as a result we can expect today's technology to greatly expand .

So my issue is- Comparatively, what value is an EV that requires 1 hour to recharge every 250 miles vs one that recharges in 5 mins and go 300 miles?

Google "Moore's Law" for more insight.
Get Ready For The Battery Revolution
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikemontgo ... evolution/
I'd like to know how you transfer 70-80kwh's in five minutes through a charging cord safely. Either that will be a huge copper cable (which makes handling it a pain) and/or they'll need to ramp up the voltage.
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Leif
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by Leif »

squirm wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:16 pm I'd like to know how you transfer 70-80kwh's in five minutes through a charging cord safely. Either that will be a huge copper cable (which makes handling it a pain) and/or they'll need to ramp up the voltage.
I've heard that water cooling inside the cable allows for a fast charge without so much heat build up. On the battery side of things the pack voltage is going up in newer models. Tesla is 400V. Porsche Taycan is 800V. The Lucid Air, to come out by the end of this year, is 900V. But I don't know about that much power in 5 minutes. Perhaps it might be possible with solid state batteries or high voltage capacitors. But that is future tech.

The other possibility I heard is battery swap. That could happen within 5 minutes. Tesla experimented with it then dropped it. Nio in China is the only significant brand I know doing battery swap at scale.
Last edited by Leif on Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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michaeljc70
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by michaeljc70 »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:44 pm
marc in merrimack wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:24 pm
02nz wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:32 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:14 am If you can wait a couple of years and can forgive VW’s history with the diesel scandal (I can’t, but I bear a grudge and probably shouldn’t), I’d consider the ID.4 and ID.5.
No need to wait a couple of years for the ID.4, it's literally arriving on our shores now from Germany. The ID.5 is coming a little later (it's basically the same thing, the Germans seem to like to offer the the option of paying several thousand dollars extra for "couple-like" styling, meaning less cargo space).

There will be a lot more choices in this space in the next couple of years. I think the most interesting so far are the Ford Mach-E (available now) and the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6, both built on the same platform and coming later this year.
Good to know about the Hyundai/Kia offerings. And it should be pointed out that Tesla will be coming out ‘soon’ with a smaller, cheaper Model 2.
Since they aren't taking reservations and we haven't seen test mules running about, I'd be shocked if the Model 2 is available for purchase anytime in the next 2 years. Realistically, I wouldn't expect it before 2025 (after the cybertruck, semi, and roadster 2.0 arrive).
And looking at Tesla's history the first models will be the higher priced, souped up versions.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by michaeljc70 »

wander wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:01 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:19 am
acepedro45 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:11 am
The 2003 has around 190k miles and will not pass the emissions test and therefore cannot have the plates renewed. Fixing it is not really worth it. I don't even know if the emissions on it are bad. In my state if there is a check engine light on they won't pass you. They don't check actual emissions. They hook it up to the computer.
This is not your question regarding Tesla, so you'll have to excuse my comments that question your premise. The bolded statements seem contradictory to me. You have a check engine light but haven't diagnosed the problem.

If it were my car, I would get a free readout of the engine code and determine if there is likely a cost-effective remedy. That advice goes double if you don't drive much. However, this is Bogleheads so the advice on cars with problems more serious than a low gas tank is generally to replace with a Tesla.
It was taken to a trusted mechanic. They turned the check engine light off but said it may not stay off (stayed off 2 weeks). They said that to fix this issue would be around $1500. My spouse took it in so I don't know the exact details. Not worth it given other issues with the SUV. This vehicle is on its last legs for several reasons but the emissions issue is a hard stop that keeps us from running it into the ground.
My common sense is to find out from your trusted mechanic what problem with the car. If you don't know what the problem is, then how can you say fixing is not worth it?
As I said, the car has many issues. Heat and air don't work properly. It has been in multiple (fairly minor) accidents. The steering makes odd noises. This is not a Toyota. It is a Nissan Xterra. Of course, you can keep any car running if you don't care about the costs. According to the blue book it is worth around $1k. It is also a gas guzzler.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by iamlucky13 »

Jim Beaux wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:43 pm In the next 5 years most manufactures will be offering EV's, and as a result we can expect today's technology to greatly expand .

So my issue is- Comparatively, what value is an EV that requires 1 hour to recharge every 250 miles vs one that recharges in 5 mins and go 300 miles?
That won't be an issue. In 5 years, there will not be 5 minute charging EV's. In 10 years, there might be, but it will more likely be e a choice between an EV that takes 30 minutes to mostly charge a 300 mile range battery, or one that takes 5 minutes to mostly charge a 150 mile range battery - assuming you find a 500-1000 kW charger. Today, the fastest is a 250 kW charger, and even that was a significant engineering challenge to make it safe and usable - for example, the cable is liquid cooled to allow smaller wires to be used so that it could remain a reasonable weight to handle.

Even if my forecast about rapid charging availability is wrong, it won't affect used car prices much. Somebody buying a 10 year old car is unlikely to quadruple their budget to save half an hour every now and then on road trips by going with a new car instead.
Jim Beaux wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:43 pmGoogle "Moore's Law" for more insight.
Get Ready For The Battery Revolution
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikemontgo ... evolution/
Moore's law is not actually a law, and battery capacity is not increasing 3% a year as the article suggests. The Panasonic NCR18650B hit the market in 2010, and as I understand it is the cell the first Model S release was based on. It had a capacity of 3400mAh in the 18650 form factor.

Today, there are a small handful of 3600mAh cells, although 3500mAh are a lot more common. That's actually 0.3% improvement per year.
michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:42 pm
alfaspider wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:44 pm
marc in merrimack wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:24 pm
Good to know about the Hyundai/Kia offerings. And it should be pointed out that Tesla will be coming out ‘soon’ with a smaller, cheaper Model 2.
Since they aren't taking reservations and we haven't seen test mules running about, I'd be shocked if the Model 2 is available for purchase anytime in the next 2 years. Realistically, I wouldn't expect it before 2025 (after the cybertruck, semi, and roadster 2.0 arrive).
And looking at Tesla's history the first models will be the higher priced, souped up versions.
They have said 2023, so 2025 would not be at all a surprise, although with the Model 3, they did advance a little ahead of normal Musk time.

I assume they will push the higher spec versions again, and also back away from the $25,000 price target, just like they did with the Model S's $60,000 price target and the Model 3's $35,000 price target.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by Jim Beaux »

squirm wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Jim Beaux wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:43 pm In the next 5 years most manufactures will be offering EV's, and as a result we can expect today's technology to greatly expand .

So my issue is- Comparatively, what value is an EV that requires 1 hour to recharge every 250 miles vs one that recharges in 5 mins and go 300 miles?

Google "Moore's Law" for more insight.
Get Ready For The Battery Revolution
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikemontgo ... evolution/
I'd like to know how you transfer 70-80kwh's in five minutes through a charging cord safely. Either that will be a huge copper cable (which makes handling it a pain) and/or they'll need to ramp up the voltage.
Dont know. It's not my problem. :mrgreen:
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BionicBillWalsh »

My Model S (Jan 2015) drives and looks like brand new. I have about 52k miles on it. I've replaced both screens due to known defects with the originals and my main computer unit was upgraded to the second generation one. I had the extended warranty and my cost was $200. I also had to replace my windshield washer fluid reservoir due to some weird deterioration that caused a leak.

So basically, I have a 5+ year old Model S that has brand new electronics all for $200. That's the only thing I've had to do that vehicle. Because of its all aluminum body, there is absolutely no rusting and I literally live on the beach.

My wife's Model X (2016) is pretty much the same story. Both screens recently replaced under extended warranty ($200). Otherwise, looks and drives like a dream with no other problems whatsoever with the vehicle.

I've owned a lot of vehicles in my life. None of them are as good or loved as my Teslas.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by TravelGeek »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:10 am

As I alluded to above, Tesla may stop doing updates to older cars or at least all updates. They may not have the sensors/hardware for some features. They may not have enough CPU power or memory for new features that could come. They may pull an Apple and just want you to buy a new car. They might start charging older car owners for updates. Musk loves playing around with pricing and subscriptions.
And pretty much every other car manufacturer seems to stop doing updates to older cars the moment you drive it off the dealer's lot, no?
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by Big Dog »

eye.surgeon wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:51 am I owned a Tesla Model S for 5.5 years. I enjoyed it but it is not a car I would consider for long term ownership. Mine was a relative antique compared to the new ones when I sold it. A current model Camry or Accord or Lexus seems far better suited to long term ownership as the internal combustion engine has been perfected over 100 years.
to be fair, the electric motor has been around longer than the internal combustion engine.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by TravelGeek »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:27 am
michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:26 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:14 am I’m a big fan of my Tesla, but if I were buying a general purpose EV today and did not have pressing need for Superchargers and extensive range, I’d look at the Polestar. Volvo knows how to make comfortable seats and safe vehicles.

If you can wait a couple of years and can forgive VW’s history with the diesel scandal (I can’t, but I bear a grudge and probably shouldn’t), I’d consider the ID.4 and ID.5.
The closest place I can test drive a Polestar is NYC and I am in Chicago. No thanks.
Wow! I had no idea they were that unprepared for sales.
I'd be more concerned about Service.

"We currently have Polestar Authorized Service Points in Manhattan, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose, with further locations coming soon."

https://www.polestar.com/us/service-and ... ice-points
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BrandonBogle »

BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:45 pm My Model S (Jan 2015) drives and looks like brand new. I have about 52k miles on it. I've replaced both screens due to known defects with the originals and my main computer unit was upgraded to the second generation one. I had the extended warranty and my cost was $200. I also had to replace my windshield washer fluid reservoir due to some weird deterioration that caused a leak.

So basically, I have a 5+ year old Model S that has brand new electronics all for $200. That's the only thing I've had to do that vehicle. Because of its all aluminum body, there is absolutely no rusting and I literally live on the beach.

My wife's Model X (2016) is pretty much the same story. Both screens recently replaced under extended warranty ($200). Otherwise, looks and drives like a dream with no other problems whatsoever with the vehicle.

I've owned a lot of vehicles in my life. None of them are as good or loved as my Teslas.
I should mention that earlier in this thread I mentioned that my 2013 Model S hasn’t really had any problems/repairs except for the 12v battery a few years ago, other than “teething” items.

I should mention that my screen was replaced while I was still under warranty for that. That isn’t going to necessarily happen to the newer cars, Tesla changed the design (I think in 2017) to use a higher grade adhesive and provide a thermal barrier/heat sink stripping around the edge of the screen. My older model screen had lower grade adhesive and didn’t have the stripping around it, and eventually the adhesive liquified and air bubbles formed due to heat.

Additionally, Tesla added “cabin overheat protection” where, if you enable the functionality, the car will run the a/c if the cabin temp exceeds 105*F during the first 12 hours it’s last use.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by michaeljc70 »

BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:45 pm My Model S (Jan 2015) drives and looks like brand new. I have about 52k miles on it. I've replaced both screens due to known defects with the originals and my main computer unit was upgraded to the second generation one. I had the extended warranty and my cost was $200. I also had to replace my windshield washer fluid reservoir due to some weird deterioration that caused a leak.

So basically, I have a 5+ year old Model S that has brand new electronics all for $200. That's the only thing I've had to do that vehicle. Because of its all aluminum body, there is absolutely no rusting and I literally live on the beach.

My wife's Model X (2016) is pretty much the same story. Both screens recently replaced under extended warranty ($200). Otherwise, looks and drives like a dream with no other problems whatsoever with the vehicle.

I've owned a lot of vehicles in my life. None of them are as good or loved as my Teslas.
So, you don't count the cost of the extended warranty or what it would have cost without that?
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by bagle »

I also drive relatively few miles per year and intend to keep my Tesla (2019 Model 3 SR+) for > 10 years.

Hardware should hold up. It's holding up very well - so far. No mechanical problems except for initial interior rattle- not unexpected as there are fewer moving parts than ICE. Some tire wear. No significant battery range degradation to date.

Software has gotten better over time thanks to OTA updates. However, it's possible that Tesla will eventually require CPU upgrade to keep software fully up-to-date, and this would mean deciding whether to pay to maintain vehicle

I think it would take a significant breakthrough to undue my Tesla's value proposition. Battery prices/performance are gradually improving, but I don't see radical breakthrough on horizon that would leave current Tesla technology far behind. I'll never go back to internal combustion engine (and not even GM will make them in 14 years).
Last edited by bagle on Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by michaeljc70 »

bagle wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:52 pm I also drive relatively few miles per year and intend to keep my Tesla (2019 Model 3 SR+) for > 10 years.

Hardware should hold up. It's holding up very well - so far. No mechanical problems except for initial interior rattle- not unexpected as there are fewer moving parts than ICE. Some tire wear.

Software has gotten better over time thanks to OTA updates. However, it's possible that Tesla will eventually require CPU upgrade to keep software fully up-to-date, and this would mean deciding whether to pay to maintain vehicle

I think it would take a significant breakthrough to undue my Tesla's value proposition. Battery prices/performance are gradually improving, but I don't see radical breakthrough on horizon that would leave current Tesla technology far behind. I'll never go back to internal combustion engine (and not even GM will make them in 14 years).
Thanks. I agree with you. If I feel like it is worth the upgrades I don't have to stick to the 10-13 year "rule" I have been using for keeping a car. I don't want to be buying a new car every 3-5 years but 7-9 I could live with.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

michaeljc70 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:10 am
As I alluded to above, Tesla may stop doing updates to older cars or at least all updates. They may not have the sensors/hardware for some features. They may not have enough CPU power or memory for new features that could come. They may pull an Apple and just want you to buy a new car. They might start charging older car owners for updates. Musk loves playing around with pricing and subscriptions.
Tesla has done some controversial things with their over the air updates. As Rich Rebuilds channel has talked about, when a Tesla is in an accident and totaled, they actively go in and disable functions including the ability to supercharge. Seems reasonable with a totaled vehicle, maybe. How about when you buy a used Tesla from a private party with the focus on buying a car with full self driving. Well, they've turned off this feature in some cases.

In general, Tesla can do whatever they want with the features of their cars. If I want to use a Cobb Access Port and put a stage 1 tune on my Subaru, I can. When I go to the dealer, they ask if I want them to reflash the ecu with the latest update and I either put the ecu back to stock or I tell them to leave it alone. With Tesla, you can't easily do that. I mean, I could do it. I'm a hardware guy. I'd find the antenna and remove it. No more updates. But I expect Big Brother Elon probably checks that I'm obeying all his rules when I go to charge my car, so perhaps my attempt would be for naught.

Oh....and I have never allowed an IOS update on any of my iphones, ever.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BionicBillWalsh »

michaeljc70 wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:42 pm
BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:45 pm My Model S (Jan 2015) drives and looks like brand new. I have about 52k miles on it. I've replaced both screens due to known defects with the originals and my main computer unit was upgraded to the second generation one. I had the extended warranty and my cost was $200. I also had to replace my windshield washer fluid reservoir due to some weird deterioration that caused a leak.

So basically, I have a 5+ year old Model S that has brand new electronics all for $200. That's the only thing I've had to do that vehicle. Because of its all aluminum body, there is absolutely no rusting and I literally live on the beach.

My wife's Model X (2016) is pretty much the same story. Both screens recently replaced under extended warranty ($200). Otherwise, looks and drives like a dream with no other problems whatsoever with the vehicle.

I've owned a lot of vehicles in my life. None of them are as good or loved as my Teslas.
So, you don't count the cost of the extended warranty or what it would have cost without that?
Not really. I bought the extended warranty for both vehicles without any expectation of ever needing it. Peace of mind for me in case of something unforeseen. I also believe that with current FTC musings on the situation that I'm likely going to get the $200 back for both vehicles.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by rockstar »

michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:29 pm Hopefully this is a little different than a lot of the "Should I buy a Tesla?" topics that focus on features or affordability. I like to keep cars 10-12 years on average. I drive less than 5k miles per year. My question is is a Tesla a bad car to do this with? So far, over the shorter term, they have held their values really well. I am questioning longer term value mostly based on new tech/performance/range coming in the near future. Yes, Tesla pushes out software updates to less than new cars. However, I wonder if eventually there will be a cutoff like updates with phones due to the hardware being too old. If the range of new car X is now 350 miles, in 5 years won't it be quite a bit higher than that (in the same price range) making older models much less desirable? Of course I know there are always new, better everything coming when it comes to anything with tech.

On the other hand, most cars after 10-12 years aren't worth very much period so maybe this shouldn't even be a concern.

I am considering the Model Y long range AWD.
No idea. My significant other's Prius lasted to about 160 thousand miles before it needed a new battery. How long do Tesla's batteries last before they need to be replaced, and how much do they cost to replace? That would be my main question with having one for a long time.

To me they're a lot like a cellphone. Eventually, you replace it as the battery starts to die.
Last edited by rockstar on Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BionicBillWalsh »

rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:19 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:29 pm Hopefully this is a little different than a lot of the "Should I buy a Tesla?" topics that focus on features or affordability. I like to keep cars 10-12 years on average. I drive less than 5k miles per year. My question is is a Tesla a bad car to do this with? So far, over the shorter term, they have held their values really well. I am questioning longer term value mostly based on new tech/performance/range coming in the near future. Yes, Tesla pushes out software updates to less than new cars. However, I wonder if eventually there will be a cutoff like updates with phones due to the hardware being too old. If the range of new car X is now 350 miles, in 5 years won't it be quite a bit higher than that (in the same price range) making older models much less desirable? Of course I know there are always new, better everything coming when it comes to anything with tech.

On the other hand, most cars after 10-12 years aren't worth very much period so maybe this shouldn't even be a concern.

I am considering the Model Y long range AWD.
No idea. My significant other's Prius lasted to about 160 thousand miles before it needed a new battery. How long do Tesla's batteries last before they need to be replaced, and how much do they cost to replace? That would be my main question with having one for a long time.
My vehicles have the 8 yrs or infinite miles warranty on the batteries
https://www.tesla.com/blog/infinite-mile-warranty
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by rockstar »

BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:20 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:19 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:29 pm Hopefully this is a little different than a lot of the "Should I buy a Tesla?" topics that focus on features or affordability. I like to keep cars 10-12 years on average. I drive less than 5k miles per year. My question is is a Tesla a bad car to do this with? So far, over the shorter term, they have held their values really well. I am questioning longer term value mostly based on new tech/performance/range coming in the near future. Yes, Tesla pushes out software updates to less than new cars. However, I wonder if eventually there will be a cutoff like updates with phones due to the hardware being too old. If the range of new car X is now 350 miles, in 5 years won't it be quite a bit higher than that (in the same price range) making older models much less desirable? Of course I know there are always new, better everything coming when it comes to anything with tech.

On the other hand, most cars after 10-12 years aren't worth very much period so maybe this shouldn't even be a concern.

I am considering the Model Y long range AWD.
No idea. My significant other's Prius lasted to about 160 thousand miles before it needed a new battery. How long do Tesla's batteries last before they need to be replaced, and how much do they cost to replace? That would be my main question with having one for a long time.
My vehicles have the 8 yrs or infinite miles warranty on the batteries
But have you actually replaced the battery yet?
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BionicBillWalsh »

rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:21 pm
BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:20 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:19 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:29 pm Hopefully this is a little different than a lot of the "Should I buy a Tesla?" topics that focus on features or affordability. I like to keep cars 10-12 years on average. I drive less than 5k miles per year. My question is is a Tesla a bad car to do this with? So far, over the shorter term, they have held their values really well. I am questioning longer term value mostly based on new tech/performance/range coming in the near future. Yes, Tesla pushes out software updates to less than new cars. However, I wonder if eventually there will be a cutoff like updates with phones due to the hardware being too old. If the range of new car X is now 350 miles, in 5 years won't it be quite a bit higher than that (in the same price range) making older models much less desirable? Of course I know there are always new, better everything coming when it comes to anything with tech.

On the other hand, most cars after 10-12 years aren't worth very much period so maybe this shouldn't even be a concern.

I am considering the Model Y long range AWD.
No idea. My significant other's Prius lasted to about 160 thousand miles before it needed a new battery. How long do Tesla's batteries last before they need to be replaced, and how much do they cost to replace? That would be my main question with having one for a long time.
My vehicles have the 8 yrs or infinite miles warranty on the batteries
But have you actually replaced the battery yet?
No. I'm a little over 6 yrs into my Model S ownership. My max miles on purchase was 253. I think its fallen all the way to 246 or so. Do you think I should get a replacement? :wink:
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by TomatoTomahto »

BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:23 pm I'm a little over 6 yrs into my Model S ownership. My max miles on purchase was 253. I think its fallen all the way to 246 or so. Do you think I should get a replacement?
I don’t follow the Tesla forums much any more, but I think this battery replacement thing is a FUD topic only for for people who don’t own a Tesla.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BionicBillWalsh »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:29 pm
BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:23 pm I'm a little over 6 yrs into my Model S ownership. My max miles on purchase was 253. I think its fallen all the way to 246 or so. Do you think I should get a replacement?
I don’t follow the Tesla forums much any more, but I think this battery replacement thing is a FUD topic only for for people who don’t own a Tesla.
I agree. My daily commute is less than 30 miles total. It would have to deteriorate seriously for me to give it one nanosecond of thought.
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YeahBuddy
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by YeahBuddy »

10 - 12 years? I'd look elsewhere unless you REALLY want a Tesla... I'd take a Prius for about 1/2 the price.
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BrandonBogle
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by BrandonBogle »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:29 pm
BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:23 pm I'm a little over 6 yrs into my Model S ownership. My max miles on purchase was 253. I think its fallen all the way to 246 or so. Do you think I should get a replacement?
I don’t follow the Tesla forums much any more, but I think this battery replacement thing is a FUD topic only for for people who don’t own a Tesla.
For people asking in good faith, I don’t think it is FUD. But I am absolutely certain that some don’t ask in good faith.

From what I’ve heard over the years, outright issues with the batteries have been rare. Those that have experienced things have typically been (1) abusing best practices for their battery (like charging to 100% and leaving it there - 100% is fine if you start driving shortly after reaching 100%), (2) someone jumping the gun on their battery being degraded when a recalibration would “restore” the missing capacity, or (3) someone has usage as an outlier and hit a software limit Tesla didn’t anticipate.

Two examples for (3)
- (a) Early builds has a software limitation on the battery imposed once 200,000 miles were on the battery. This was not planned as a permanent limitation, but an area that Tesla had limited data on and was waiting to observe cars approaching this to determine if any restrictions were warranted. Tesloop runs essentially a “bus service” going back and forth between L.A. and alas Vegas. They hit 200,000 miles when most people hadn’t even hit 100,000 miles. Since Tesla wasn’t prepared to change things based on their analysis yet, Tesla replaced the battery under warranty.

- (b) Similar to (a), Tesla had a software limitation on the number of Level 3/DC charges a car would take before limiting charging speed. It was something like 500 L3/DC charges before the limit kicked in. Someone hit it because the only charger they were using was a Chademo. Given that was their primary charging source, they hit 500 charges quickly. Tesla eventually analyzed the data from heavy DC charging cars and determined the battery pack wouldn’t have an issue and raised the limit (if I recall correctly, to 2,500 or 5,000 charges). When the battery fire occurred in China, they lowered this limit again and many older cars were “nerfed” in charging speed. About a year ago Tesla raised the limit again as they had more data to look at.

So in 3.a and 3.b a number of folks got their batteries replaced not because of a real issue, but overly conservative software design. Those replacements are offered discussed when discussing battery and they really don’t apply anymore nor were they anything that led people to buy replacement batteries or think about when they would buy them out of warranty.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by squirm »

rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:19 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:29 pm Hopefully this is a little different than a lot of the "Should I buy a Tesla?" topics that focus on features or affordability. I like to keep cars 10-12 years on average. I drive less than 5k miles per year. My question is is a Tesla a bad car to do this with? So far, over the shorter term, they have held their values really well. I am questioning longer term value mostly based on new tech/performance/range coming in the near future. Yes, Tesla pushes out software updates to less than new cars. However, I wonder if eventually there will be a cutoff like updates with phones due to the hardware being too old. If the range of new car X is now 350 miles, in 5 years won't it be quite a bit higher than that (in the same price range) making older models much less desirable? Of course I know there are always new, better everything coming when it comes to anything with tech.

On the other hand, most cars after 10-12 years aren't worth very much period so maybe this shouldn't even be a concern.

I am considering the Model Y long range AWD.
No idea. My significant other's Prius lasted to about 160 thousand miles before it needed a new battery. How long do Tesla's batteries last before they need to be replaced, and how much do they cost to replace? That would be my main question with having one for a long time.

To me they're a lot like a cellphone. Eventually, you replace it as the battery starts to die.
It really depends on how the battery is treated and other variables. Constantly deep cycling and fully charging isn't good. Weather plays a factor too, batteries don't like heat.

To those who think this is just FUD, Nissan actually had a battery degradation gauge in their Leafs. Bad things do happen to the batteries, and of course Tesla wants you to think their batteries will last forever, if I was making EV's I would hide any evidence and say the same thing.
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Re: Tesla for people that keep cars a long time

Post by squirm »

BrandonBogle wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:49 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:29 pm
BionicBillWalsh wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:23 pm I'm a little over 6 yrs into my Model S ownership. My max miles on purchase was 253. I think its fallen all the way to 246 or so. Do you think I should get a replacement?
I don’t follow the Tesla forums much any more, but I think this battery replacement thing is a FUD topic only for for people who don’t own a Tesla.
For people asking in good faith, I don’t think it is FUD. But I am absolutely certain that some don’t ask in good faith.

From what I’ve heard over the years, outright issues with the batteries have been rare. Those that have experienced things have typically been (1) abusing best practices for their battery (like charging to 100% and leaving it there - 100% is fine if you start driving shortly after reaching 100%), (2) someone jumping the gun on their battery being degraded when a recalibration would “restore” the missing capacity, or (3) someone has usage as an outlier and hit a software limit Tesla didn’t anticipate.

Two examples for (3)
- (a) Early builds has a software limitation on the battery imposed once 200,000 miles were on the battery. This was not planned as a permanent limitation, but an area that Tesla had limited data on and was waiting to observe cars approaching this to determine if any restrictions were warranted. Tesloop runs essentially a “bus service” gfoing back and forth between L.A. and alas Vegas. They hit 200,000 miles when most people hadn’t even hit 100,000 miles. Since Tesla wasn’t prepared to change things based on their analysis yet, Tesla replaced the battery under warranty.

- (b) Similar to (a), Tesla had a software limitation on the number of Level 3/DC charges a car would take before limiting charging speed. It was something like 500 L3/DC charges before the limit kicked in. Someone hit it because the only charger they were using was a Chademo. Given that was their primary charging source, they hit 500 charges quickly. Tesla eventually analyzed the data from heavy DC charging cars and determined the battery pack wouldn’t have an issue and raised the limit (if I recall correctly, to 2,500 or 5,000 charges). When the battery fire occurred in China, they lowered this limit again and many older cars were “nerfed” in charging speed. About a year ago Tesla raised the limit again as they had more data to look at.

So in 3.a and 3.b a number of folks got their batteries replaced not because of a real issue, but overly conservative software design. Those replacements are offered discussed when discussing battery and they really don’t apply anymore nor were they anything that led people to buy replacement batteries or think about when they would buy them out of warranty.
The set point Tesla imposed to initiate nerfing the battery charging speed for DC was set at 2625kWh and reached a maximum at 13,125kWh.
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