The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

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BreadandButter
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The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by BreadandButter »

I am wondering what the future of car ownership looks like. We have a carport that needs replacing.  Will roving driverless Ubers mean parking for 2 cars unecessary?  What about electric car charging?  Will it be better to have that in a garage rather than in a carport?
We are looking for opinions on the short and longer term (5 to 30 year) outlook.
stan1
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by stan1 »

I'd build a 2 car garage with solar panels on the roof.

Even if I didn't have 2 cars in 30 years there would be things I want to keep in a garage, and a garage would be much more convenient than a basement for many items.
Mike Scott
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Mike Scott »

Build it to suit your own needs. There is no way to predict what others might want now much less in thirty years.
nordsteve
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by nordsteve »

In 2012, https://www.cnn.com/2012/09/18/tech/inn ... index.html forecast that that most cars would be self driving in 2040.

We're now about 1/3 of the way there, and most new cars can't do lane-keeping or adaptive cruise control well. Even the Tesla, arguably farthest along with respect to self driving, is nowhere near actual self-driving.

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BreadandButter
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by BreadandButter »

Anyone have any useful suggestions about car charging?
sureshoe
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by sureshoe »

Sounds like there are 2 questions here:

1) What is the right investment for your home? Hard to answer, but in general I would build to what other people in your neighborhood have. If you can replace the car port for cheap and most other people have a carport, do the carport. If most people have a garage and that's going to affect your ability to get a good price in the future, I'd do the garage. I personally think a properly done garage is going to have a nearly dollar-for-dollar return on investment. It gives a safe place to store a car as well as storage - people like that.

2) What is the future of cars in suburbia. Over the next 10 years, I think you're only going to see the need for car ownership drop. Fully autonomous cars are part of it, but Uber continues to diminish the need. If my wife and I didn't have kids, I'm not sure we'd have 2 cars. $60 uber round trips in the occasion I need a second car or a rental... I dunno.
fabdog
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by fabdog »

My EV charger is nice in the garage. the unit says it's rated for indoor and out, but in a carport, you'd need the 240 line run out there. In my garage it just comes off my main box and is right below it.

So you can get chargers that will work indoors or out, but you need to consider the 240 power source to that area

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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Sam_957 »

I've been hearing some negativity regarding self-driving cars. People claiming the Waymo cars are actually backed by large teams of people remotely monitoring them. I was hoping to shuttle my kids around in self driving vehicles and avoid them driving, but that may not be feasible.

Also Uber prices are also said to be up - at least in some areas. Recent NYT articles on how all these tech service companies were/are running huge deficits with the plan of raising pricing once market dominance is established. Not really surprising imho.
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Makefile
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Makefile »

I actually think if there were a decrease in cars, the parking would work the opposite way. Right now municipalities put all kinds of off-street parking requirements on any kind of construction, even in dense downtown neighborhoods. The zoning codes treat the old walkable neighborhoods without offstreet parking and parking lots/garages as a mistake not to be made again. Only recently has the Overton Window shifted such that reducing or eliminating these requirements in the densest urban neighborhoods has even been worthy of discussion. If malls, big box stores, other areas that currently exist in huge seas of free parking were to start charging for parking or restrict parking of private cars, or future development be allowed to be built without parking, only then could I see a dent in private car ownership.
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quantAndHold
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by quantAndHold »

Even in the unlikely event that there are packs of roving driverless cars, a garage will still be useful for storage. People have more stuff than ever, and will pay good money for space to store their stuff.

That said, you should just build what you need right now. I wouldn’t add any kind of electric car charging equipment unless I had an electric car today.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Californiastate »

Everybody was talking about autonomous vehicles taking over just a few years ago. It hasn't happened. Progress happens over decades.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by mike@jb »

Flannelbeard wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:24 pm I really doubt this swarm of taxis is going to take over as futurists and Tesla fanboys seem to claim. Most people like having their own car; their own personal space....

Absent some sort of government legislation making it illegal to own personal vehicles, I'll still be driving my car around 40 years from now.
This! I enjoy driving my own cars.
Since I’m already over 60, I doubt I have 40 more years of driving.
But I want to do it myself as long as I am competent.
arsenalfan
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by arsenalfan »

I posted similar thread.
Consensus was to install a NEMA 60 W dryer outlet.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=330893&p=5902928#p5902928
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ClevrChico
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by ClevrChico »

A garage is much more versatile than a carport. You can use it for storage, yard equipment, a game room, office, etc. Carports also take more of a beating from the weather.

As far the future of cars, I think remote work has the potential for immediate disruption vs. driverless taxis. We could easily downsize from two cars > one car right now. If it weren't for shuttling the kids around, we could have zero cars and just Uber around today.
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BreadandButter
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by BreadandButter »

Thanks for all the replies. We don't need the carport/garage for anything other than keeping the cars out of the rain. We would only have room for a narrow 2 car garage (19 feet), so an open sided carport makes accessing the cars easier than a garage; otherwise a garage would be a certainty.
sandan
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by sandan »

BreadandButter wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:55 pm I am wondering what the future of car ownership looks like. We have a carport that needs replacing.  Will roving driverless Ubers mean parking for 2 cars unecessary?  What about electric car charging?  Will it be better to have that in a garage rather than in a carport?
We are looking for opinions on the short and longer term (5 to 30 year) outlook.
A garage is a timeless invention for anyone that stores or works on machines that have wheels and/or wings. I don't think that can be said for a carport. I'm not sure what the weather is like where you live, but it may also help reduce the aging of the car battery and electrical items that can get corroded.
Last edited by sandan on Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
mrb09
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by mrb09 »

arsenalfan wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:40 pm I posted similar thread.
Consensus was to install a NEMA 60 W dryer outlet.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=330893&p=5902928#p5902928
+1 on this. I moved into a new house and am looking at an electric car (used leaf) for around town trips. There's a NEMA 6-50 outlet in the garage, so I just went to Home Depot and picked up a 40A charger, no electrician needed.

Chargers can be indoor/outdoor, but there is the greater possibility of theft/mischief with an outdoor charger, so there's the extra hassle of locking it somehow. Maybe some kind of lockable cabinet built in?
furiouschads
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by furiouschads »

I put a carport over my frying pan of a two-car parking pad. The carport consists of 28 solar panels mounted on a commercial frame, made for office parking lots. The frame and its installation was eligible for the 30% solar tax credit.

As part of the wiring needed for the solar system install, I had the solar crew install a 240v circuit to my carport. I later bought a used Clipper Creek 240v charger for my electric car.

The solar system does not directly charge the car. We consume some of the solar power onsite and sell the excess to the grid. We may invest in batteries if our state gets stupid about taking our excess. Right now, the grid is a very cost-effective battery.

I originally planned on installing a lightweight carport myself and then have panels installed on that. The weight of the panels made that impossible, so we went with a professional install. Our cost was $20,000 (after subsidies) for the carport and solar system. We had it installed in 2014. We live in the mid-Atlantic. The ROI for the whole solar carport project is 13%.
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Watty
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Watty »

BreadandButter wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:17 pm Anyone have any useful suggestions about car charging?
Ask the electrician how much it would cost to run a 240 circuit out there when the other work is being done and if it would be a lot harder to do later if you do not do it now. Once you have the number you can then decide.

One possible complication is that it might not be as inexpensive as it sounds since adding the circuit could require upgrading the electrical panel and even the electric feed into the house.
BreadandButter wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:55 pm Will roving driverless Ubers mean parking for 2 cars unecessary?
Don't hold your breath.

One huge problem with driverless Uber that is often ignored is that they will increase traffic congestion because they would often be driving empty to go pick someone up. They may also just circle on the road when they are waiting for their next passenger during the slow times of the day.

To actually reduce the traffic on he road they would need to be more like a driverless Uber minivan where people share rides with strangers but that would likely not be well received.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by tvubpwcisla »

With work from home, I see a lot of families going down to one car or less cars than they have today.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by LittleMaggieMae »

Wait.. garages are for cars and not storage for all the 'life accessories' people own?

Suburbs were designed around cars - if anything I would build a 3 or 4 car garage. All the new houses being built in the suburbia around me are being built with 3 or 4 car holes. (yeah, that's a reference to the McMansion Hell blog by Kate Wagner - she's got great entries on the origins of suburbs). A smaller house gets torn down and a bigger house with 3 or 4 car holes gets built. If the "city lot" isn't big enough for a house and a 4 car garage and if the lot has alley access - the builder puts the house on top of 2 car holes at the front of the property (the garages open out to the street) and puts another 2 car holes that open out on to the alley in the back. There may or may not be a "quarter postage stamp" yard between the house at the front of the property and the garage at the rear. Sometimes there's a deck on top of the garage - since the first floor of the house is raised up over the garages instead of a back yard.

If I was upgrading - I'd put in as many covered or enclosed parking spots as I could do. Cars aren't going anywhere - and if they do vanish - people will just use the space to store the "crap" they can't seem to get rid of.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by toast0 »

If you've got rodents in your neighborhood, an enclosed garage may be useful for excluding them from your car; if that's not a big issue, a carport seems fine. If the pricing makes sense, I think 30 amp @ 240V per car is likely to get you good enough charging, but some cars can handle more; if I'm reading correctly Telsa chargers can do up to 60A (well they use less, but they want a 60A breaker) and the F-150 Lightning goes up to an 80A breaker.
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warner25
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by warner25 »

LittleMaggieMae wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:22 pm Wait.. garages are for cars and not storage for all the 'life accessories' people own?... Cars aren't going anywhere - and if they do vanish - people will just use the space to store the "crap" they can't seem to get rid of.
I can't believe that it took so many replies on this thread for someone to say this. Does nobody else live in a suburb? Despite houses being bigger than ever, and families being smaller than ever, most people that I see with a garage just park in their driveway or on the street and use the garage for storage, gym equipment, toys, etc. Everyone I know who doesn't have a garage wishes that they had one. Carports are insufficient for storage because of theft and exposure to the elements.

As much as I want my transportation needs to be solved by driverless electric cars that I can just grab on-demand, I agree with everyone who already said something like, "if we didn't have kids..."

Everyone that I know uses their car for some light storage too, so ownership is important.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

I guess I'm behind the times. All that's in my garage is 4 cars, a lift, all my tools, compressor and my generator. Even at that, 2 cars and my tractor live outside. My son priced an Uber to go to a friend's. $35 each way. I don't think we're going to be using them anytime soon.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Walkure »

I'll throw in my experience as a newly minted suburbanite with no car. Getting by with walking, bus, and Uber most of the time, rental cars when needed for longer trips. It isn't ideal or convenient, but, OTOH, it's not quite inconvenient enough to make me go out and buy a car. Thinking about getting an e-bike or scooter once the "return to office" drumbeat becomes unavoidable. I suspect more and more (especially younger, childless) homebuyers will opt for a similar arrangement.

That said it will take time for any of this to affect the market.
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quantAndHold
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by quantAndHold »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:37 pm My son priced an Uber to go to a friend's. $35 each way. I don't think we're going to be using them anytime soon.
I read an article just this morning that Uber and Lyft are pretty much always on surge pricing right now, because of a shortage of drivers. Hard to say if that’s temporary or permanent, but if you had Uber on your 2021 shortage bingo card, you can mark it off now.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Afty »

mrb09 wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:08 pm
arsenalfan wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:40 pm I posted similar thread.
Consensus was to install a NEMA 60 W dryer outlet.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=330893&p=5902928#p5902928
+1 on this. I moved into a new house and am looking at an electric car (used leaf) for around town trips. There's a NEMA 6-50 outlet in the garage, so I just went to Home Depot and picked up a 40A charger, no electrician needed.

Chargers can be indoor/outdoor, but there is the greater possibility of theft/mischief with an outdoor charger, so there's the extra hassle of locking it somehow. Maybe some kind of lockable cabinet built in?
For outdoor I would prefer a hard wired EV charger for better weather and theft proofing. I don’t think you’d need more than 1 charger for two cars unless you both drive a lot.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by stoptothink »

Walkure wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:43 pmI suspect more and more (especially younger, childless) homebuyers will opt for a similar arrangement.
My little sister just turned 18 and will be a senior. She's had a job for over 2yrs and has (to date) shown zero interest in even getting her license. She rides an electric scooter to work. Of the handful of her friends that I know, none of them have their license either. This is in the suburbs.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Mr. Rumples »

It seems to me that people are driving more now than ever. That's born out by a DOT report pre-pandemic. And now the traffic seems to be picking up. Uber and so forth are fine for some, but most folks will remain dependent on their vehicle IMHO. In addition, more and more kids in high school have vehicles. Perhaps one thing to look at is parking trends at high schools and colleges. It seems to me as a casual observation that schools are now built with larger lots to accommodate those vehicles, but I have no data. Of course, no one can predict the future.

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformat ... aprtvt.pdf

It seems to me that whereas folks once thought a 50 mile "day trip" was an exception, now its common whether to get to work or to visit.

If people really wanted to get rid of their vehicles as part of a trend, Zipcar and similar programs would be more popular. They are suited for urban of course, but wouldn't they indicate a trend away from private vehicle ownership?
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Walkure »

Mr. Rumples wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:50 pm It seems to me that people are driving more now than ever. That's born out by a DOT report pre-pandemic. And now the traffic seems to be picking up. Uber and so forth are fine for some, but most folks will remain dependent on their vehicle IMHO. In addition, more and more kids in high school have vehicles. Perhaps one thing to look at is parking trends at high schools and colleges. It seems to me as a casual observation that schools are now built with larger lots to accommodate those vehicles, but I have no data. Of course, no one can predict the future.

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformat ... aprtvt.pdf

It seems to me that whereas folks once thought a 50 mile "day trip" was an exception, now its common whether to get to work or to visit.

If people really wanted to get rid of their vehicles as part of a trend, Zipcar and similar programs would be more popular. They are suited for urban of course, but wouldn't they indicate a trend away from private vehicle ownership?
Interestingly, most of your observations can be traced back to housing. The normalization of the 50 mile commute is almost entirely a product of housing costs near major job centers. And increased parking around colleges is probably due to a long-term inability of those institutions to construct sufficient on-campus housing, with the private rental market picking up the slack. Both of those are trends that are getting a bit long in the tooth, and all the more so with the catalyst of the pandemic.

In the short term, a lingering avoidance of air travel and public transit will definitely result in more passenger miles being accounted for by private passenger autos. Whether that holds up long term is anyone's guess.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Normchad »

Most of America is built around the car. That can’t change any time soon. And I think driverless cars are a long ways off.

So I don’t see much changing anytime soon.

Zoning and building codes are a big driver of sprawl. If you build an Applebee’s, you have to make 200 parking spaces for it. Same for every other kind of business, which makes everything spread out. There just aren’t that many places in America where you can live without a car. Sure there are some, but just not that many.

When neither my wife nor I am working, I really think we will still have 2 cars.
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leeks
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by leeks »

A garage will add more value to the home no matter what happens to the trends in car ownership. Carports look dated. Garages can be storage and workshop space or someday converted to office or guest space.

If you don't want to pay for a garage now, just take down the carport when it's life is over. I don't know anyone who actually likes carports - they usually look rather tacky. My car looks nice and clean after a rain..they don't have to be covered.

If you can afford it, build a decent-looking garage that matches the style of your house (not just a prefab thing).
Last edited by leeks on Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:25 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Watty »

stoptothink wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:49 pm
Walkure wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:43 pmI suspect more and more (especially younger, childless) homebuyers will opt for a similar arrangement.
My little sister just turned 18 and will be a senior. She's had a job for over 2yrs and has (to date) shown zero interest in even getting her license. She rides an electric scooter to work. Of the handful of her friends that I know, none of them have their license either. This is in the suburbs.
My son was that way too. I had to insist that he get a driver's licence when he was 17 so that he could get some driving experience in high school and college when he could slowly learn to drive at a slow pace. I did not want him to get through college and then all the sudden need to learn to drive when he got his first job.

One funny side note to that. When he was going to get his driver's licence he realized that he would need to sign his name and he never needed to do that before.

We had moved and he switched schools and they had different schedules so he missed out on what little cursive handwriting they teach now so he never had any training in how to write cursive, so he could not sign his name. He never admitted it but I think he probably watched enough youtube to sort of figure out how to sort of make the first letter in his first and last name and the rest of his signature is just a scrawl.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by gtd98765 »

As far as EV charging, not much difference between carport and garage. We have a carpet with an EV charger underneath. Unless the wind is blowing furiously, the rain can't reach the outlet (which is in a weatherproof box anyway). The very few occasions the weather has been that bad we have just not plugged the car in. But that's just a handful of times over 2 1/2 years.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by brad.clarkston »

BreadandButter wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:17 pm Anyone have any useful suggestions about car charging?
Get a Tesla power wall and sell the excess back to the grid to offset your bill.
If you get a Tesla along the way even better.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Yarlonkol12 »

I’d research chargers, think the new F150 lightning fast charger (that can also power your home using the trucks battery) requires a 100 amp circuit. I would also run ethernet to the garage so you can have a reliable access point in there for car software updates
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by jackbeagle »

Nothing will be replaced. Not in our lifetimes. There will be new ideas that are used on new builds, but that's about it. For the most part, suburbia and rural American homes, on the exterior, are a time capsule of the era. Save for less invasive touches like painting brick, solar panels, or landscaping... homes without garages largely are still without them, homes with carports still have them open, just as they did 30, 50 years ago. I see no reason that status quo would change unless there are some arbitrary and wild changes made on what is taxed and how. Maybe in the future, we are taxed per square foot of yard that is not occupied by the dwelling, prompting a mass selloff of back yards to be built upon.

Regarding EV charging, I foresee a second "peak" electricity rate period where everyone comes home and plugs in their EV. Existing infrastructure does not support Level 3 charging in each home. It would require the service drop to be replaced in every residence, and distribution to be redone as well. Now, a good idea would be a Tesla Powerwall slow-charging to full, then a DC-to-DC link from that Powerwall to the vehicle could just dump all the charge into the car in 30 minutes without imposing that load on the grid.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by iamlucky13 »

stoptothink wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:49 pm
Walkure wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:43 pmI suspect more and more (especially younger, childless) homebuyers will opt for a similar arrangement.
My little sister just turned 18 and will be a senior. She's had a job for over 2yrs and has (to date) shown zero interest in even getting her license. She rides an electric scooter to work. Of the handful of her friends that I know, none of them have their license either. This is in the suburbs.
Of course, 18 year olds generally aren't the people defining the housing market.

Her transportation interests will probably evolve over time as her responsibilities and proximity to her friends changes. Even if her interests don't, most everyone else's always has changed as they get older, so I default to the expectation the transportation interests of the majority will continue in the future to change as individuals get older.

There is a slight downward trend in overall car ownership and driving rates, if I remember right. There is a much bigger downward trend in teen driving rates. Factors include public transit availability, re-evaluation of the costs and benefits, and probably most significantly, increased rules for teenagers getting a license. In those states that forbid drivers under 18 from having minors from another household in their vehicle, a major motivation for driving (to go places with friends) is eliminated, but those factors will not remain true as they get older.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by SteadyOne »

Sam_78 wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:28 pm I've been hearing some negativity regarding self-driving cars. People claiming the Waymo cars are actually backed by large teams of people remotely monitoring them. I was hoping to shuttle my kids around in self driving vehicles and avoid them driving, but that may not be feasible.

Also Uber prices are also said to be up - at least in some areas. Recent NYT articles on how all these tech service companies were/are running huge deficits with the plan of raising pricing once market dominance is established. Not really surprising imho.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by wootwoot »

BreadandButter wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:55 pm I am wondering what the future of car ownership looks like. We have a carport that needs replacing.  Will roving driverless Ubers mean parking for 2 cars unecessary?  What about electric car charging?  Will it be better to have that in a garage rather than in a carport?
We are looking for opinions on the short and longer term (5 to 30 year) outlook.
Have you seen the price of Ubers post pandemic? It's not an option that I'd want to rely on. They take forever and cost 2.5x what they did pre-pandemic. Building a garage will likely add to the value of your home so that's food for thought.
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by furiouschads »

jackbeagle wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:36 pm Regarding EV charging, I foresee a second "peak" electricity rate period where everyone comes home and plugs in their EV. Existing infrastructure does not support Level 3 charging in each home. It would require the service drop to be replaced in every residence, and distribution to be redone as well. Now, a good idea would be a Tesla Powerwall slow-charging to full, then a DC-to-DC link from that Powerwall to the vehicle could just dump all the charge into the car in 30 minutes without imposing that load on the grid.
That is unlikely. We have a 200 amp service to the house. 40amp 240 circult to our Level 2 charger. Works great.

We had a Chevy Volt. We now have a VW eGolf.

Both have easy-to-program timers built into the car. We charge our vehicles in the middle of the night, mostly using nuclear-generated power produced while the rest of the grid is asleep. Set it once. Sure, plug it in when you get home, but it doesn't start drawing power until the timer goes off. If owners don't do this on their own, state regulators will establish lower charging rates for the late night-early morning period to shift the demand to the right time period.

The Powerwall makes sense when regulators do a bad job of handling the utilities. If homeowners get good prices for their excess generation, they can use the grid for their battery. Much cheaper than a Powerwall. If regulators (like Texas' ERCOT) let utilities get away with not winterproofing their systems, then sure, maybe a Powerwall or generator can provide some very expensive insurance. We looked at the Powerwall numbers a few years ago and they didn't pencil out.

As far as distribution goes, utilities are already informed whenever a new solar array goes onto a grid. Some utilities are already installing battery pods in neighborhood transfer stations. These batteries get refilled in the middle of the night and are being used to respond to neighborhood peak demand during the day. Some people envision these pods being made with recycled Prius, Leaf, and Tesla batteries. https://www.tdworld.com/electrification ... -batteries

For those of you wondering what to do with the bond portion of your portfolio, consider putting some of it into a solar system on your property. Insane after-tax ROI.

Well, OK, maybe that stuff on your roof isn't so liquid...
Normal is an illusion. What is normal for the spider is chaos for the fly. --Charles Addams. #613 in 2022 BH prediction contest. #42 in 2023. Not that I am keeping track.
Cycle
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Cycle »

Cars aren't going away in the suburbs beyond the first ring anytime soon. And for the one in 1000 suburbanite households that doesn't have a car, they'll appreciate the garage to store stuff.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way
stimulacra
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by stimulacra »

If there's a revolution in mobility, micro-mobility, and teleworking… suburbia as we know it (secluded subdivisions accessible by highway) might be a thing of the past since having huge chunks of our developed landscape devoted to commuting and parking won't be as imperative as it once was.

Realistically though I think most families will keep a mix of vehicle types; one ICE automobile and one EV. One for economy and one for fun, range, or whatever anxiety that will keep consumers from fully committing to EV.
JackoC
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by JackoC »

Flannelbeard wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:24 pm I really doubt this swarm of taxis is going to take over as futurists and Tesla fanboys seem to claim. Most people like having their own car; their own personal space. Look at how disrespectfully many people treat public transportation, and how... disgusting it is. I'm not a germaphobe or OCD or anything like that. But my idea of a peaceful commute doesn't involve me coming into contact with the filth generated by countless other humans.

Absent some sort of government legislation making it illegal to own personal vehicles, I'll still be driving my car around 40 years from now.
I agree very difficult to predict. The COVID pandemic, though its immediate effects are waning in the US, is an example of how there can be sudden breaks in trends. It could have lasting effects on people's relative valuation of the privacy and control of a personal car. And it might not be the last unfortunate event or trend that leads in that direction. Assumption of smooth trends toward what a certain portion of the population, overrepresented in the media and on the internet (I won't characterize them further, to avoid the charge of 'politics'), would like to see happen is generally not a reliable way to predict the future.

EV's, though I also doubt they will grow as a share of the car market in the US as fast as their fans wish to see, aren't as radical a departure from the 'American suburban, car way of life'. So arranging a new house/garage/port to be at least amenable to installing a charger later seems like a good idea. Not that you necessarily have to install one yourself now if you're not into EV's.

We live in an extremely densely populated urban area and do not need a car to do stuff like grocery shop or eat out. We nonetheless have two, because we feel like it, basically. No driveway or garage of our own, we rent a space in an underground garage for our newer car, park the older one on the street. We've taken Uber exactly twice (to and from airport on one trip, was fine) but our grown kids used it for distances in town I'd walk, but have cut back because the prices are so much higher now.
Californiastate
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Californiastate »

stimulacra wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:24 pm If there's a revolution in mobility, micro-mobility, and teleworking… suburbia as we know it (secluded subdivisions accessible by highway) might be a thing of the past since having huge chunks of our developed landscape devoted to commuting and parking won't be as imperative as it once was.

Realistically though I think most families will keep a mix of vehicle types; one ICE automobile and one EV. One for economy and one for fun, range, or whatever anxiety that will keep consumers from fully committing to EV.
COVID didn’t cause people to evacuate the suburbs. It was quite the opposite.
Afty
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Afty »

Californiastate wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:31 pm
stimulacra wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:24 pm If there's a revolution in mobility, micro-mobility, and teleworking… suburbia as we know it (secluded subdivisions accessible by highway) might be a thing of the past since having huge chunks of our developed landscape devoted to commuting and parking won't be as imperative as it once was.

Realistically though I think most families will keep a mix of vehicle types; one ICE automobile and one EV. One for economy and one for fun, range, or whatever anxiety that will keep consumers from fully committing to EV.
COVID didn’t cause people to evacuate the suburbs. It was quite the opposite.
In addition, if self-driving cars truly come to pass, I would expect people to spread out further and commute even farther, since the commute will be less onerous if you’re not actually driving.
Big Dog
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by Big Dog »

mrb09 wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:08 pm
arsenalfan wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:40 pm I posted similar thread.
Consensus was to install a NEMA 60 W dryer outlet.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=330893&p=5902928#p5902928
+1 on this. I moved into a new house and am looking at an electric car (used leaf) for around town trips. There's a NEMA 6-50 outlet in the garage, so I just went to Home Depot and picked up a 40A charger, no electrician needed.

Chargers can be indoor/outdoor, but there is the greater possibility of theft/mischief with an outdoor charger, so there's the extra hassle of locking it somehow. Maybe some kind of lockable cabinet built in?
Your low cost solution was perfect for an existing wiring but disagree if the OP is building new. Might as well think a few years into the future, not what yesterday's home garage welders are using. At a minimum, I'd install a 14-50 receptacle on a 60 amp line. The additional cost for the cable is peanuts in comparison to the electrician's labor cost and it allows one to upgrade later without having to pull new cable.
stimulacra
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by stimulacra »

Californiastate wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:31 pm
stimulacra wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:24 pm If there's a revolution in mobility, micro-mobility, and teleworking… suburbia as we know it (secluded subdivisions accessible by highway) might be a thing of the past since having huge chunks of our developed landscape devoted to commuting and parking won't be as imperative as it once was.

Realistically though I think most families will keep a mix of vehicle types; one ICE automobile and one EV. One for economy and one for fun, range, or whatever anxiety that will keep consumers from fully committing to EV.
COVID didn’t cause people to evacuate the suburbs. It was quite the opposite.
Yeah, there was nothing to do in cities during a lockdown and little incentive to pay for the HCOL. I'm not suggesting that suburbs will go away… just completely reimagined.
North Texas Cajun
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by North Texas Cajun »

BreadandButter wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:55 pm I am wondering what the future of car ownership looks like. We have a carport that needs replacing.  Will roving driverless Ubers mean parking for 2 cars unnecessary?
At 70, I realize I may not have the same values as some of the younger folks who comment here. But I’ve got to ask: Does anyone really believe that almost all Americans - or even a large fraction of them - are going to stop buying cars?

A 2018 research paper by MIT looked at how millenials car ownership tendencies compared with those of earlier generations. The study concludes:

“ While we find that Millennials are altering life-choices that affect vehicle ownership, the net effect of these endogenous choices is to reduce vehicle ownership by less than one percent. ”
http://ceepr.mit.edu/files/papers/2019-006.pdf

Anyone who hopes to resell a home in almost all of America should realize that buyers will want garages for decades to come.
mrb09
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Re: The Future of Cars in Suburbia?

Post by mrb09 »

Big Dog wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:38 pm
mrb09 wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:08 pm
arsenalfan wrote: Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:40 pm I posted similar thread.
Consensus was to install a NEMA 60 W dryer outlet.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=330893&p=5902928#p5902928
+1 on this. I moved into a new house and am looking at an electric car (used leaf) for around town trips. There's a NEMA 6-50 outlet in the garage, so I just went to Home Depot and picked up a 40A charger, no electrician needed.

Chargers can be indoor/outdoor, but there is the greater possibility of theft/mischief with an outdoor charger, so there's the extra hassle of locking it somehow. Maybe some kind of lockable cabinet built in?
Your low cost solution was perfect for an existing wiring but disagree if the OP is building new. Might as well think a few years into the future, not what yesterday's home garage welders are using. At a minimum, I'd install a 14-50 receptacle on a 60 amp line. The additional cost for the cable is peanuts in comparison to the electrician's labor cost and it allows one to upgrade later without having to pull new cable.
Agree, I was trying to give an example of how easy is was to retrofit a charger if the area is already wired. Even for a hard-wired solution added later (mentioned elsewhere), it is easier with some kind of adjacent wired receptacle. I certainly wouldn't use 6-50 for a new installation.
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