U.S. stocks in free fall

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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

dukeblue219 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:22 am If you ever get frustrated with volatility of US stocks, just look at what's happened to a certain very popular alternative "investment" that shall not be named in the last 24 hours. Yikes.
Wow!
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MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

'87-style crashes are common for the unnamed asset. Not my cup of tea. :beer
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

MindBogler wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:12 pm '87-style crashes are common for the unnamed asset. Not my cup of tea. :beer
You gotta have balls of steel to ride that rollercoaster. :shock: :mrgreen:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

Those wishing to discuss this unnamed "investment" further should instead refer to this post. :wink:
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UncleLeo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UncleLeo »

3CT_Paddler wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:44 am
UncleLeo wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:37 am I know this is naive and oversimplified, but I need to know where I'm wrong in my logic -
We know that when interest rates go up valuations go down and vice versa, or as Warren Buffet puts it - interest rates act as "gravitational pull" on valuations.
When Interest rates went up in late 2018, stocks when to a bear market and jpow had to reverse course.
When Interest rates went down as a response to the pandemic - valuations skyrocketed.

Now, we're facing high inflation that won't just go away. jpow is tapering asset purchases and it's only a matter of time until interest rates will start going up.
This time around, jpow won't have the luxury to stop raising interest rates, because price stability is the fed's mandate and because of political reasons.
It seems that the market is starting to digest that inflation is here to stay and that there's no escape from raising interest rates. no more cheap money.
By that logic - the only direction for the stock market from here is down. until rates will stabilize.

Another point is that inflation is good for the stock market - when dollars lose their value, people buy assets even if they're risky.
Knowing that the fed will act to lower inflation makes dollars more attractive and the risk of stocks less attractive.

Where am I wrong?
The market is guessing (based on Treasury yields) that at some point in the next year or two inflation will abate as financial conditions worsen or the Feds initial rate increase hurts stocks/growth and that we are ultimately in a deflationary environment.
Aren't all those (worsening of financial conditions, deflationary environment) reasons for further declines in the stock market?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

UncleLeo wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 6:45 pm
3CT_Paddler wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:44 am
UncleLeo wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:37 am I know this is naive and oversimplified, but I need to know where I'm wrong in my logic -
We know that when interest rates go up valuations go down and vice versa, or as Warren Buffet puts it - interest rates act as "gravitational pull" on valuations.
When Interest rates went up in late 2018, stocks when to a bear market and jpow had to reverse course.
When Interest rates went down as a response to the pandemic - valuations skyrocketed.

Now, we're facing high inflation that won't just go away. jpow is tapering asset purchases and it's only a matter of time until interest rates will start going up.
This time around, jpow won't have the luxury to stop raising interest rates, because price stability is the fed's mandate and because of political reasons.
It seems that the market is starting to digest that inflation is here to stay and that there's no escape from raising interest rates. no more cheap money.
By that logic - the only direction for the stock market from here is down. until rates will stabilize.

Another point is that inflation is good for the stock market - when dollars lose their value, people buy assets even if they're risky.
Knowing that the fed will act to lower inflation makes dollars more attractive and the risk of stocks less attractive.

Where am I wrong?
The market is guessing (based on Treasury yields) that at some point in the next year or two inflation will abate as financial conditions worsen or the Feds initial rate increase hurts stocks/growth and that we are ultimately in a deflationary environment.
Aren't all those (worsening of financial conditions, deflationary environment) reasons for further declines in the stock market?
Who knows? Don't try to figure it out. You won't.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

dukeblue219 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:22 am If you ever get frustrated with volatility of US stocks, just look at what's happened to a certain very popular alternative "investment" that shall not be named in the last 24 hours. Yikes.
Why are you pushing the limits of forum policies, dookblue219? Call me carolinablue219.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by case_of_ennui »

VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mikejuss »

case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
Last edited by mikejuss on Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mikeyzito22 »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:12 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:09 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:36 am
S4C5 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:32 am Anybody else think the small cap/biotech/hypergrowth crash (lets be honest, that's what this is. We are down 30-40% for the year in ALL of this stuff, basically anything Cathie Wood has ever touched) is just market manipulation and this will just cycle back as these are viewed as value plays again.

I have about a 100k basis in ARKG, now worth 70k. Somebody above mentioned selling ARKK (thankfully I did back in October when I got my shares called away selling covered calls). I can't really justify selling an ETF at these levels when everything is getting hammered unless I am sure that this is a permanent reversal. As much as I hated too, I bought another 200 shares this morning.

Same thing with basically anything Cathie Wood has ever touched. Just getting decimated across the board. It's not individual stocks/bad companies. It's sector wide, and this volatilty will reverse the other way again, right? RIGHT?
The only two "hypergrowth" stock I own are some ARKK and some Pinterest. ARKK is down maybe 30% this year and Pinterest down a whopping 45%. Unless I am to believe Pinterest is going bankrupt, it doesn't make sense to liquidate what I have now.
As I wrote on Yahoo Finance: "Cathie Woods is worse at picking stocks than me. And that's saying something."
ARKK's CAGR since inception is 28%, 2x the S&P500 (14% since 2015). People start bashing funds too early.
People also pay high expense ratios for ARKK (.76!). That would be the only "bashing" I would worry about.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by case_of_ennui »

mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:54 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
US stocks are soaring so high they've reached outer space and are free falling in zero gravity.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:54 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
For one thing it would be an absolute mess trying to refer to any previous discussion chains.

They could start an altogether new thread.
mikejuss
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mikejuss »

000 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:29 pm
mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:54 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
For one thing it would be an absolute mess trying to refer to any previous discussion chains.

They could start an altogether new thread.
The point is that there is no difference between the two threads.
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000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:32 pm
000 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:29 pm
mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:54 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
For one thing it would be an absolute mess trying to refer to any previous discussion chains.

They could start an altogether new thread.
The point is that there is no difference between the two threads.
I don't disagree.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Flyer24 »

Stay on topic please.
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Tubes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tubes »

I like the separate threads. I can literally tell how the market is doing by which thread is active, and how active it is. Kinda cool.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

Tubes wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:54 pm I like the separate threads. I can literally tell how the market is doing by which thread is active, and how active it is. Kinda cool.
Currently, the market is closed. Can you tell?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:32 pm
000 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:29 pm
mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:54 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
For one thing it would be an absolute mess trying to refer to any previous discussion chains.

They could start an altogether new thread.
The point is that there is no difference between the two threads.
exactly. they should be merged.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

peskypesky wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:14 pm
mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:32 pm
000 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:29 pm
mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:54 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
For one thing it would be an absolute mess trying to refer to any previous discussion chains.

They could start an altogether new thread.
The point is that there is no difference between the two threads.
exactly. they should be merged.
Agreed. At this point it is actually more of a hassle to have two going. Why not just make it a U.S. stock market discussion?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by S4C5 »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:12 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:09 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:36 am
S4C5 wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:32 am Anybody else think the small cap/biotech/hypergrowth crash (lets be honest, that's what this is. We are down 30-40% for the year in ALL of this stuff, basically anything Cathie Wood has ever touched) is just market manipulation and this will just cycle back as these are viewed as value plays again.

I have about a 100k basis in ARKG, now worth 70k. Somebody above mentioned selling ARKK (thankfully I did back in October when I got my shares called away selling covered calls). I can't really justify selling an ETF at these levels when everything is getting hammered unless I am sure that this is a permanent reversal. As much as I hated too, I bought another 200 shares this morning.

Same thing with basically anything Cathie Wood has ever touched. Just getting decimated across the board. It's not individual stocks/bad companies. It's sector wide, and this volatilty will reverse the other way again, right? RIGHT?
The only two "hypergrowth" stock I own are some ARKK and some Pinterest. ARKK is down maybe 30% this year and Pinterest down a whopping 45%. Unless I am to believe Pinterest is going bankrupt, it doesn't make sense to liquidate what I have now.
As I wrote on Yahoo Finance: "Cathie Woods is worse at picking stocks than me. And that's saying something."
ARKK's CAGR since inception is 28%, 2x the S&P500 (14% since 2015). People start bashing funds too early.
Tell that to those of us who started investing, with the premise that this will be a good long term investment like you say, in her funds in early 2021 and have tried to average down throughout the year. It’s beyond frustrating. This stuff is all stupidly oversold right now but it’s impossible to figure out where to go from here.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

S4C5 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:30 pm Tell that to those of us who started investing, with the premise that this will be a good long term investment like you say, in her funds in early 2021 and have tried to average down throughout the year. It’s beyond frustrating. This stuff is all stupidly oversold right now but it’s impossible to figure out where to go from here.
All I said was her track record on ARKK is still 28% CAGR. I don't hold ARKK, I didn't say it is a good long term investment.

I understand the frustration, but calling her a bad stock picker just has no basis (yet).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:34 pm
S4C5 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:30 pm Tell that to those of us who started investing, with the premise that this will be a good long term investment like you say, in her funds in early 2021 and have tried to average down throughout the year. It’s beyond frustrating. This stuff is all stupidly oversold right now but it’s impossible to figure out where to go from here.
All I said was her track record on ARKK is still 28% CAGR. I don't hold ARKK, I didn't say it is a good long term investment.

I understand the frustration, but calling her a bad stock picker just has no basis (yet).
It's funny isn't it? The total market can go all over the place and we say volatility is the price we pay for good long term returns. When a managed fund goes up and then down, and still has good performance in total, we assume the manager is a fraud, shouldn't be trusted, got lucky.

I happen to hate the idea of managed funds, but these gyrations should be expected. She slaughtered the market for a while. We should know the opposite can also occur.

This is the problem with managed funds. It's additional risk that is not expected to be compensated. Those who are investors in these funds and are upset with the performance and selling know deep down that managed funds have these risks and are now deciding it isn't one worth taking.

My opinion is that Cathie Wood was simply lucky.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheoBanana »

peskypesky wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:14 pm
mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:32 pm
000 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:29 pm
mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:54 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
For one thing it would be an absolute mess trying to refer to any previous discussion chains.

They could start an altogether new thread.
The point is that there is no difference between the two threads.
exactly. they should be merged.
Lets call it "Nobody knows nothin'"
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

S4C5 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:30 pm This stuff is all stupidly oversold right now
lmao, just, lmao. Imagine actually believing this. Imagine loading $ into a fund managed by a Twitter memer who invests into meme and fUtUrE web 3.0 EV solar TECHBRO crypto stocks that was only pulled into good ROI territory all due to (essentially) one good stock call (TSLA) as she and her entire staff shilled it on CNBC, Twitter, literally setting up a PODCAST to discuss Tesla, etc for 3 years non-stop and just. got. lucky.

Imagine paying 75bps for this service too. LMAO. Is VTSAX really that ugly? Whatever, keep sinking with the ARKK. She copped a couple $MM in $DOCU shares at the dip which I would totally bet this will resuscitate the fund to its former short-lived glory
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

Futures are up. Everyone knock it off and go to the other thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:45 pm It's funny isn't it? The total market can go all over the place and we say volatility is the price we pay for good long term returns. When a managed fund goes up and then down, and still has good performance in total, we assume the manager is a fraud, shouldn't be trusted, got lucky.

I happen to hate the idea of managed funds, but these gyrations should be expected. She slaughtered the market for a while. We should know the opposite can also occur.

This is the problem with managed funds. It's additional risk that is not expected to be compensated. Those who are investors in these funds and are upset with the performance and selling know deep down that managed funds have these risks and are now deciding it isn't one worth taking.

My opinion is that Cathie Wood was simply lucky.
Imo she's still doing fine. Her CAGR used to be 50%, now 28%; S&P500's CAGR over the same period is 14%. We'll see when/if S&P500 goes higher than ARKK.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

I sense another red day
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:50 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:45 pm It's funny isn't it? The total market can go all over the place and we say volatility is the price we pay for good long term returns. When a managed fund goes up and then down, and still has good performance in total, we assume the manager is a fraud, shouldn't be trusted, got lucky.

I happen to hate the idea of managed funds, but these gyrations should be expected. She slaughtered the market for a while. We should know the opposite can also occur.

This is the problem with managed funds. It's additional risk that is not expected to be compensated. Those who are investors in these funds and are upset with the performance and selling know deep down that managed funds have these risks and are now deciding it isn't one worth taking.

My opinion is that Cathie Wood was simply lucky.
Imo she's still doing fine. Her CAGR used to be 50%, now 28%; S&P500's CAGR over the same period is 14%. We'll see when/if S&P500 goes higher than ARKK.
Even if she does well, it's luck. I don't think she has any special stock-picking abilities.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

newyorker wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:57 pm I sense another red day
I might retire from the "taper in progress" caller. Do you want to take over?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Asia is in the toilet. China and Japan down big.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 »

lostdog wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:59 pm Asia is in the toilet. China and Japan down big.
Meh, less than 1% on the Nikkei and US futures look fine.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

dukeblue219 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:01 pm
lostdog wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:59 pm Asia is in the toilet. China and Japan down big.
Meh, less than 1% on the Nikkei and US futures look fine.
The US futures are up.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

SSE Composite is up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

lostdog wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:59 pm Asia is in the toilet. China and Japan down big.
-1% and -0.1 percent respectively : ) I know the toilets in Japan are immaculate though.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

mikejuss wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:54 pm
case_of_ennui wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:52 pm VTSAX is up 5.3% over the last 6 months. What are you guys doing here?
That's an excellent question. Why won't the moderators merge the "US stocks in free fall" and "US stocks soaring" threads? That'd be a really satisfying piece of poetic justice. :mrgreen:
I'm an advocate of not merging the two threads, my reasons given in the soaring thread.

That being said, I'll try to make one comment pertinent to falling... I see that the latest S&P closing price is less than halfway to a "correction". That's worth almost half a yawn right there!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by csmath »

Don't merge. A little more self restraint for frivolous posting maybe as to not stretch the long leash these threads have been given. Play-by-play is a bit excessive.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by S4C5 »

:confused :?:
morsk wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:01 pm
S4C5 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:30 pm This stuff is all stupidly oversold right now
lmao, just, lmao. Imagine actually believing this. Imagine loading $ into a fund managed by a Twitter memer who invests into meme and fUtUrE web 3.0 EV solar TECHBRO crypto stocks that was only pulled into good ROI territory all due to (essentially) one good stock call (TSLA) as she and her entire staff shilled it on CNBC, Twitter, literally setting up a PODCAST to discuss Tesla, etc for 3 years non-stop and just. got. lucky.

Imagine paying 75bps for this service too. LMAO. Is VTSAX really that ugly? Whatever, keep sinking with the ARKK. She copped a couple $MM in $DOCU shares at the dip which I would totally bet this will resuscitate the fund to its former short-lived glory
I agree for the large part that she casts a wide net and ends up with a lot of losers hoping for one big winner. Still, this is a sector wide thing right now. Unless somebody can tell me why I should specifically dump a fund of these stocks right now for large losses, I can’t really seem to justify it. Long term she may not do that well, and I do want to significantly reduce my exposure to ARK, but what is stopping this from recovering in the short term with the rest of the sector?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

S4C5 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:56 pm Unless somebody can tell me why I should specifically dump a fund of these stocks right now for large losses, I can’t really seem to justify it.
I can't help you there. You took the risk but you were also seemingly star-struck by Cathy and her shilled amazing returns, which really means you didn't really care about the real downside risk until the day finally came. For your sake, I hope you can at least break-even and dip out but I have no idea if you'll get there any time soon. Maybe tomorrow it'll rocket up 50% or maybe you won't recover for many years but you'll hold on and keep paying those 75bps.

That's why I don't invest in meme funds. I have no problem accepting the risk proposition that I may lose 50% in a downturn owning VTSAX at some point, but I don't feel the same way about the risk proposition in a meme fund like ARKK with a .75% expense ratio. Two totally different beasts that can theoretically behave in the same way, but for some reason, they rarely do. Good luck
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

S4C5 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:56 pm :confused :?:
morsk wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:01 pm
S4C5 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:30 pm This stuff is all stupidly oversold right now
lmao, just, lmao. Imagine actually believing this. Imagine loading $ into a fund managed by a Twitter memer who invests into meme and fUtUrE web 3.0 EV solar TECHBRO crypto stocks that was only pulled into good ROI territory all due to (essentially) one good stock call (TSLA) as she and her entire staff shilled it on CNBC, Twitter, literally setting up a PODCAST to discuss Tesla, etc for 3 years non-stop and just. got. lucky.

Imagine paying 75bps for this service too. LMAO. Is VTSAX really that ugly? Whatever, keep sinking with the ARKK. She copped a couple $MM in $DOCU shares at the dip which I would totally bet this will resuscitate the fund to its former short-lived glory
I agree for the large part that she casts a wide net and ends up with a lot of losers hoping for one big winner. Still, this is a sector wide thing right now. Unless somebody can tell me why I should specifically dump a fund of these stocks right now for large losses, I can’t really seem to justify it. Long term she may not do that well, and I do want to significantly reduce my exposure to ARK, but what is stopping this from recovering in the short term with the rest of the sector?
This is exactly what a lot of us said back in the 1990s with a rockstar fund manager who really just got lucky investing the hot dot-com sector.

And those hot managers never recovered.

It was a painful lesson, and then we turned to index investing.

But you'll have to burn your hand on the stove yourself. You won't believe us.

But I bet in 20 years you might be telling some younger people not to invest in the hot fund of the 2040s, and they won't listen to you either.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by vanbogle59 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:10 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 6:50 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:45 pm It's funny isn't it? The total market can go all over the place and we say volatility is the price we pay for good long term returns. When a managed fund goes up and then down, and still has good performance in total, we assume the manager is a fraud, shouldn't be trusted, got lucky.

I happen to hate the idea of managed funds, but these gyrations should be expected. She slaughtered the market for a while. We should know the opposite can also occur.

This is the problem with managed funds. It's additional risk that is not expected to be compensated. Those who are investors in these funds and are upset with the performance and selling know deep down that managed funds have these risks and are now deciding it isn't one worth taking.

My opinion is that Cathie Wood was simply lucky.
Imo she's still doing fine. Her CAGR used to be 50%, now 28%; S&P500's CAGR over the same period is 14%. We'll see when/if S&P500 goes higher than ARKK.
Even if she does well, it's luck. I don't think she has any special stock-picking abilities.
I don't think it's necessary to call it luck. It might be genuine insight.
Even then, it is most likely limited insight (might work now, but not later, who knows???)
More importantly, it must be the ability to win the zero sum game version of investing, no matter what you call that.
So, for each winner, there must be a loser.
For me to benefit, I either need to share the special insight (which I don't) or I need to buy it for less than it's worth (which is really tricky) all the while NOT falling for the used-car-salesman who is losing the zero sum game but has great marketing (been there done that).

Back to total market returns for me!
Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Vtsax100 »

csmath wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:52 pm Don't merge. A little more self restraint for frivolous posting maybe as to not stretch the long leash these threads have been given. Play-by-play is a bit excessive.
Im in the don’t merge camp. I make my daily trade based on which thread is at the top when I look in the morning.
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ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ResearchMed »

Vtsax100 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:43 am
csmath wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:52 pm Don't merge. A little more self restraint for frivolous posting maybe as to not stretch the long leash these threads have been given. Play-by-play is a bit excessive.
Im in the don’t merge camp. I make my daily trade based on which thread is at the top when I look in the morning.
Do you have a specific time?
Otherwise, you can just wait a few moments until "whichever you really prefer just now" rises above the other.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Tricked you
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Another bad/sad day for small cap... Low economy growth forecasted/projected is the reason I guess... :oops:
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:53 pm Another bad/sad day for small cap... Low economy growth forecasted/projected is the reason I guess... :oops:
Yeah, the rally was fun while it lasted. The inflation number tomorrow will likely tank growth/small caps further
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

2022 S&P 500 forecasts

BMO: 5300
CS: 5200
GS: 5100
JPM: 5050
RBC: 5050
Citi: 4900
UBS: 4850
Cantor: 4800
Barclays: 4800
BofA: 4600
MS: 4400
link

Apologies if this has already been posted.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:09 pm 2022 S&P 500 forecasts

BMO: 5300
CS: 5200
GS: 5100
JPM: 5050
RBC: 5050
Citi: 4900
UBS: 4850
Cantor: 4800
Barclays: 4800
BofA: 4600
MS: 4400
link

Apologies if this has already been posted.
Sounds like all the analysts are pretty optimistic, which I take it as a bad sign? :twisted:
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:19 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:09 pm 2022 S&P 500 forecasts

BMO: 5300
CS: 5200
GS: 5100
JPM: 5050
RBC: 5050
Citi: 4900
UBS: 4850
Cantor: 4800
Barclays: 4800
BofA: 4600
MS: 4400
link

Apologies if this has already been posted.
Sounds like all the analysts are pretty optimistic, which I take it as a bad sign? :twisted:
Given 6.2% inflation, I'm not so sure if their projections are optimistic. 0% real is already 5000.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:28 pm Given 6.2% inflation, I'm not so sure if their projections are optimistic. 0% real is already 5000.
You're expecting 6.2% inflation going forward?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

drk wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:34 pm You're expecting 6.2% inflation going forward?
Maybe not 6.2% but at least 5% throughout 2022. The only way to tame this is by raising rates and the Fed is still tapering.
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