My guess is that he meant "futures", but considering what may become of the repo market as taper/rate hikes/tightening transpires, I'd go with either look bad.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:18 amYou can see the future? My crystal ball is still in the shop.
U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I suppose. As Yogi Berra famously said: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:19 amMy guess is that he meant "futures", but considering what may become of the repo market as taper/rate hikes/tightening transpires, I'd go with either look bad.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:18 amYou can see the future? My crystal ball is still in the shop.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, good news is today is Contribution Day.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Honestly, I don't know how the Fed controls a repo market spike like it did in 2019. They have to admit to abandoning their tightening policy, exposing the shell game a bit. What happens to inflation then? Do we get a "crash up" in the market ie 5% market gains but 10% inflation?alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:26 amI suppose. As Yogi Berra famously said: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:19 amMy guess is that he meant "futures", but considering what may become of the repo market as taper/rate hikes/tightening transpires, I'd go with either look bad.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:18 amYou can see the future? My crystal ball is still in the shop.
They'd have to try to control it because mortgage and car loans would go to 8-10% instantly.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:44 amHonestly, I don't know how the Fed controls a repo market spike like it did in 2019. They have to admit to abandoning their tightening policy, exposing the shell game a bit. What happens to inflation then? Do we get a "crash up" in the market ie 5% market gains but 10% inflation?alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:26 amI suppose. As Yogi Berra famously said: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:19 amMy guess is that he meant "futures", but considering what may become of the repo market as taper/rate hikes/tightening transpires, I'd go with either look bad.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:18 amYou can see the future? My crystal ball is still in the shop.
They'd have to try to control it because mortgage and car loans would go to 8-10% instantly.
Perhaps. One bright spot for me is that my oil company RSU that vest in March are going gangbusters.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I've been loving natty gas and uranium lately, especially since European officials are labeling them as part of the ESG movement, punting on the lack of availability in "true" renewable resources. But yes oil is ALWAYS a good play, especially when it went negative and folks thought the end was nigh for it.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:48 amJoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:44 amHonestly, I don't know how the Fed controls a repo market spike like it did in 2019. They have to admit to abandoning their tightening policy, exposing the shell game a bit. What happens to inflation then? Do we get a "crash up" in the market ie 5% market gains but 10% inflation?alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:26 amI suppose. As Yogi Berra famously said: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:19 amMy guess is that he meant "futures", but considering what may become of the repo market as taper/rate hikes/tightening transpires, I'd go with either look bad.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:18 am
You can see the future? My crystal ball is still in the shop.
They'd have to try to control it because mortgage and car loans would go to 8-10% instantly.
Perhaps. One bright spot for me is that my oil company RSU that vest in March are going gangbusters.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is a little cherry picked, but when I see this thread pop up on days the market goes down, I think about the forecasts over the last several years of low single-digit stock returns over a 10 year period. For instance, in 2019 Vanguard forecasted U.S. equities would return in the 3 - 5% range. (See https://pressroom.vanguard.com/news/Pre ... 20618.html). Since then, the S&P 500 is up about 84%. When I have seen those low return forecasts I have said to myself "OK, I can live with that." But that means that I can probably also live with a pretty substantial haircut to current stock prices. So I remain calm and focused on the long term.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Germany is closing its nuclear power plants.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:51 amI've been loving natty gas and uranium lately, especially since European officials are labeling them as part of the ESG movement, punting on the lack of availability in "true" renewable resources. But yes oil is ALWAYS a good play, especially when it went negative and folks thought the end was nigh for it.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:48 amJoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:44 amHonestly, I don't know how the Fed controls a repo market spike like it did in 2019. They have to admit to abandoning their tightening policy, exposing the shell game a bit. What happens to inflation then? Do we get a "crash up" in the market ie 5% market gains but 10% inflation?alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:26 amI suppose. As Yogi Berra famously said: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:19 am
My guess is that he meant "futures", but considering what may become of the repo market as taper/rate hikes/tightening transpires, I'd go with either look bad.
They'd have to try to control it because mortgage and car loans would go to 8-10% instantly.
Perhaps. One bright spot for me is that my oil company RSU that vest in March are going gangbusters.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-01-01/
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
VTI is the same price it was at the end of August 2021, VXUS is the same price it was in February 2021. The stagnation has been going on for a while, it's just been masked with volatility and rotation. And it could go on for a while longer still. I read a post on here where someone mentioned there are three ways to make money in the markets (other than fees): dividends, capital appreciation, and volatility capture. I suspect we're in the third zone right now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think my taxable account is lower than it was in June 2021 now. Partly due to my tilt towards growth through holding a few of the FAANGs and some ARKK. Amazon has not moved in over a year (almost trading like a bond fund) and Facebook has been pretty stagnant as well since early 2021
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
All the more reason. I know it sounds counterintuitive but thinking long term...TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:09 amGermany is closing its nuclear power plants.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:51 amI've been loving natty gas and uranium lately, especially since European officials are labeling them as part of the ESG movement, punting on the lack of availability in "true" renewable resources. But yes oil is ALWAYS a good play, especially when it went negative and folks thought the end was nigh for it.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:48 amJoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:44 amHonestly, I don't know how the Fed controls a repo market spike like it did in 2019. They have to admit to abandoning their tightening policy, exposing the shell game a bit. What happens to inflation then? Do we get a "crash up" in the market ie 5% market gains but 10% inflation?alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:26 am
I suppose. As Yogi Berra famously said: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.
They'd have to try to control it because mortgage and car loans would go to 8-10% instantly.
Perhaps. One bright spot for me is that my oil company RSU that vest in March are going gangbusters.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-01-01/
France always seems to pick up the slack in this area anyway.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's a real and valid concern. Fed was able to easily resume round 4 QE last time with no inflation and many popular economists continuing to say more we would not lead to inflation (Krugmans liquidity trap tweets). Not the case this time. We shall see. The process is about to begin.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:44 amHonestly, I don't know how the Fed controls a repo market spike like it did in 2019. They have to admit to abandoning their tightening policy, exposing the shell game a bit. What happens to inflation then? Do we get a "crash up" in the market ie 5% market gains but 10% inflation?alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:26 amI suppose. As Yogi Berra famously said: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:19 amMy guess is that he meant "futures", but considering what may become of the repo market as taper/rate hikes/tightening transpires, I'd go with either look bad.alfaspider wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:18 amYou can see the future? My crystal ball is still in the shop.
They'd have to try to control it because mortgage and car loans would go to 8-10% instantly.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Wow, the conversations in this thread has changed a lot since the past few weeks. Earlier, every couple pages, someone will come in and drop the equivalent of "stay the course" mantra. Since the beginning of the rout in the new year, those kind of posts are few and far between!
So here - I will do my boglehead duties. Markets will move up, down and sideways. It is important to stay invested for the longer term with the level of risk you are comfortable with, and then stay the course. While the discussions in this thread can be fun, and at times distressing, don't get distracted and stick to your plan.
So here - I will do my boglehead duties. Markets will move up, down and sideways. It is important to stay invested for the longer term with the level of risk you are comfortable with, and then stay the course. While the discussions in this thread can be fun, and at times distressing, don't get distracted and stick to your plan.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Being diversified with world market cap and some bonds I think I'm only down around 3% from ATH.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I am nearly replicating VT with various ETFs. 20% bonds, 27% of equities in international (split 75/25 in developed and emerging), rest in domestic (split 5/61/14/20 between REITs, S&P 500, Extended and SCV). The major deviation I have from mimicing VT for the equitiy portion of my portfolio ofcourse are SCV & REITs. The existance of 401K and HSA in my portfolio makes it difficult to hold a single fund like VT, and early in my bogleheaded-ness journey I was influenced a lot of sector and size tilts (REIT and SCV) so they continue to form a small percentage of my portfolio.
Last edited by fetch5482 on Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
University of Michigan 5-10 year inflation expectations rise to 3.1%. See graph in Twitter link
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I will feel this way (the Boglehead way) more as a fiscal equilibrium is established on a systemic level. Meaning, the problems that caused 2008 are actually addressed as opposed to being swept under the rug. That may mean credit markets majorly contract. I don't see any other way to be honest.gas_balloon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:33 am Wow, the conversations in this thread has changed a lot since the past few weeks. Earlier, every couple pages, someone will come in and drop the equivalent of "stay the course" mantra. Since the beginning of the rout in the new year, those kind of posts are few and far between!
So here - I will do my boglehead duties. Markets will move up, down and sideways. It is important to stay invested for the longer term with the level of risk you are comfortable with, and then stay the course. While the discussions in this thread can be fun, and at times distressing, don't get distracted and stick to your plan.
Society expands and optimizes throughout history and that dynamic is captured in the market through "gains". I fear that the gains more recently do not reflect that dynamic, but rather extreme misallocation into markets that resemble zero-sum games, fueled by social media and the networking effect (ie WallStreetBets, "experts" tweeting stock tips, etc). I think it's being intellectually dishonest to believe otherwise.
Consider this: as your early 2000s self, fresh from the dot bomb era, still licking wounds from the Nasdaq imploding: would you consider the refueling of debt markets to nosebleed levels on unprofitable companies, companies like DASH that couldn't make a profit even during a pandemic when nearly everyone ordered food to go, a reasonable plan for healthy long term growth?
Last edited by JoinTheLocalizer on Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:11 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I have actually been experimenting with ignoring the market completely, and just monitoring the transactions page in my account just to make sure I haven't been robbed by hackers. Yesterday I didn't look at the market at all (nor did I look at this forum) and it was a day of serenity.
My desired vibe is Brian Eno's 1/1.
My desired vibe is Brian Eno's 1/1.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It shot off the bottom after the National Retail Federation reported record holiday sales. Maybe earnings surprises will be back in stock with free Prime delivery.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Quite a recovery this afternoon. We may need to close the day in the other thread. On the other hand that BND…
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Was perfect. I max out my 401K today - all going to Total U.S. Bonds! We are basically back to Aug 2010 prices for BND
I did miss out on my limit order for VTI ($232.27) in my HSA account though by a few cents off the lows today. My VNQ (U.S. REIT) limit orders in Roth IRA did execute. VEA (Developed International Markets) orders are still off by a couple dollars, so it will take some time to execute.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not really worried. People get old and retire. This is normal.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:09 pmIf I am going to worry about anything it is workforce participation. At least at the moment I personally don't have a lot of concern around the 10 year.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:50 pmThey buy a lot. In the interview, the Fed guy had no idea how much impact the run-off would have on rates. That's not really reassuring.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:43 pmI'm not sure, but it feels strange that the Fed influences the yields so much. It almost feels as if they're the only one trading bonds.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Pretty likely unless you're buying t-bills and rolling over. You'll still lose against inflation, but you won't lose principal.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm down about 8% since November.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:55 am I'm only down 1.8% but that's because I hold the asset everyone loves to hate: nominal bonds.
Most of that is due to my holdings in tech and crypto.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My spaceship filled up with additional shares today and blasted off.
Tony
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Did I read correctly that Total International is positive year to date and US is negative?
Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
VEMAX ytd +1.70%
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Wow! Approximately 4% difference.
Will it keep up and grow from there is the question?
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Where are you getting these numbers? Vanguard's 1/14/2021 numbers for the ETF shares are:
VXUS YTD +0.77%
VTI YTD -2.72%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:53 pmWhere are you getting these numbers? Vanguard's 1/14/2021 numbers for the ETF shares are:
VXUS YTD +0.77%
VTI YTD -2.72%
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I agree that those numbers are screwy.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:53 pmWhere are you getting these numbers? Vanguard's 1/14/2021 numbers for the ETF shares are:
VXUS YTD +0.77%
VTI YTD -2.72%
VTIAX is up from $34.20 to $34.45 YTD, or +0.73%.
VTSAX is down from $117.56 to $114.39 YTD, or -2.70%.
All numbers from 12/31/21 to 1/14/22.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Just wanted to reach out and say I did the same this week. From monday to thursday. Then I had a nights out with friends and alcohol. They were talking about cryptos and stocks and so I relapsed. I blame the alcohol. I think its the ultimate strategy. Just don´t look at the markets, your accounts and financial news. Investing can be very stress free this way.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:02 am I have actually been experimenting with ignoring the market completely, and just monitoring the transactions page in my account just to make sure I haven't been robbed by hackers. Yesterday I didn't look at the market at all (nor did I look at this forum) and it was a day of serenity.
My desired vibe is Brian Eno's 1/1.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My first 401(k) contribution of the year will be invested on Tuesday. Trying to remember that I'm frontloading, so a little free fall isn't so bad (as long as it doesn't last all year)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"Year to date": two weeks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And here I was giving international stocks a thumbs up!
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
For the passive investors out there: "this is the way"TheoLeo wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:24 amJust wanted to reach out and say I did the same this week. From monday to thursday. Then I had a nights out with friends and alcohol. They were talking about cryptos and stocks and so I relapsed. I blame the alcohol. I think its the ultimate strategy. Just don´t look at the markets, your accounts and financial news. Investing can be very stress free this way.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:02 am I have actually been experimenting with ignoring the market completely, and just monitoring the transactions page in my account just to make sure I haven't been robbed by hackers. Yesterday I didn't look at the market at all (nor did I look at this forum) and it was a day of serenity.
My desired vibe is Brian Eno's 1/1.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well those futures certainly went red real fast.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The 10-year yield tops 1.80. Plus news out of Israeli that fourth booster doesn't stop omicron.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The latter bit of news might present a short term shock on the negative side but should mean nothing long-term. Omicron may spell the end of the pandemic phase of COVID. The sooner everyone gets it, the better things will be as exposure to Omicron is protective against Delta et al.
This is not an invitation to discuss the politics of COVID, its spread and most importantly vaccination. It is merely my speculation that algos will jump on the news but logic suggests that it doesn't equate to doom in the slightest.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
ALGOS???JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:58 am It is merely my speculation that algos will jump on the news but logic suggests that it doesn't equate to doom in the slightest.
Algos in Greek is a neuter noun literally meaning "pain"
LOL
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Algorithms. They do cause a lot of pain don’t they?vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:03 amALGOS???JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:58 am It is merely my speculation that algos will jump on the news but logic suggests that it doesn't equate to doom in the slightest.
Algos in Greek is a neuter noun literally meaning "pain"
LOL
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nice deep red to start the week!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sometimes a case of the Mondays ain't so bad. (Well, it feels like Monday because my company had MLK as holiday)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
When hedge funds and institutions bail on stocks like today, where is the money going?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Among the sea of reds, VDE (energy) is up 1.4%.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)