U.S. stocks in free fall

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

MichaelAZ wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:56 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:07 pm Do the holdings in your new account, lumped in with your tax-deferred accounts, meet your selected overall asset allocation?
Yes, they do.
Great! It seems a lot of people (even here) don't pay any attention to it. :D

Seems pretty important, to me anyway.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruud »

Bluce wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:28 pm Buyers and sellers are like fish in a school: They all swim in the same direction and may suddenly change, but they don't know why. They just follow the fish in front of them.
as depicted in this famous cartoon
.
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

ruud wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:09 pm
Bluce wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:28 pm Buyers and sellers are like fish in a school: They all swim in the same direction and may suddenly change, but they don't know why. They just follow the fish in front of them.
as depicted in this famous cartoon
Hahahaha! Something like that anyway. :sharebeer
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Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Trader Joe »

Really?

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fortfun
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fortfun »

retiringwhen wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:08 pm
fortfun wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:50 pm
retiringwhen wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:42 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:36 pm Heh, cool idea. What software is that?
home brew, all done in google sheets with data collection scripts written in gscript (thanks for Kevin M for great samples!) and then tons of formulas and charts. It tracks everything including my retirement date! :twisted:
Thoughts about having drawdown go above 100%?
By definition impossible. A drawdown is the percentage that the current balance is down from the all-time high in the past. If if a new high is achieved, all future balances are measured from that date. We don't re-write the past (I am not Marty McFly :D )
Ha! I was thinking about the concept of taking 5% during good years and 2% during poor years. It seems like some people like this approach to the 4% rule.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by adamthesmythe »

(W Jul 21)

Well that didn't last long.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

adamthesmythe wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:34 am (W Jul 21)

Well that didn't last long.
...and many of the same buyers driving up the market today, will probably sell and drive it lower next week. 🍿
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

runcyc wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:42 am
adamthesmythe wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:34 am (W Jul 21)

Well that didn't last long.
...and many of the same buyers driving up the market today, will probably sell and drive it lower next week. 🍿
Or maybe it will be flat next week, like nobody can make up their mind.

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flyingaway »

I regret not buying some mutual funds on Monday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

flyingaway wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:33 pm I regret not buying some mutual funds on Monday.
Did you not rebalance, or are we talking dry powder money that you might have deployed?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

000 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:43 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Not August because we need enough time to forget he ever said that. Not December because it's far enough in the future that it would dampen the IMPENDING DOOM effect.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

and because the various clairvoyant ones at Stansberry Research keep saying to move your money soon!
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

000 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:43 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

Or maybe the economy grows at the Fed's target pace. No one knows the exact timing.
Last edited by runcyc on Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

Forester wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am
000 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:43 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
Those factors could certainly be inflationary. But whether that correlates to a "liquidity crisis" is unknown by anyone. The Fed's objective is some "moderate" inflation, consistent with an expanding economy. Whether that can be achieved without too high inflation and subsequent higher-than-planned interest rates isn't known for certain by anyone.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am
000 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:43 pm
Forester wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pm Probably a nervy day on the way to new highs between 4,500 & 5,000; "buy the dip" will be rewarded one last time but after summer is over there will be a Q4 2008 / Q1 2020 global liquidity crisis.
Why September (I assume this is what you mean by after summer) and not August or December?
Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

We are heading for a correction, but dont know when, why, or by how much; not sure how long the 🐻 will be around either. Other than that, I know everything about the market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
How deep and long of a drop are you anticipating?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

000 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:33 pm
Forester wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
How deep and long of a drop are you anticipating?
S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

I'm heading to my bunker. 🍿🍺
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

Forester wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:45 pm
000 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:33 pm
Forester wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
How deep and long of a drop are you anticipating?
S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
Forrester on Jan 27th
Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.

S&P 500 - has topped for the short & medium term. Not going above 3,800.
viewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473

*LOL*
Trade the news and you will lose.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Fire up this thread for Monday.

China getting hammered.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

What is the correlation between Chinese stocks and US stocks?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by zaboomafoozarg »

ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:57 pm Forrester on Jan 27th
Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.

S&P 500 - has topped for the short & medium term. Not going above 3,800.
viewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473

*LOL*
Ah but he left the definition of "short & medium term" open... for all we know, that could've meant 5 to 10 minutes!

I am still waiting on that $12 silver and $1300 gold too.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:38 am Fire up this thread for Monday.

China getting hammered.
Stocks are about flat at the open.

I guess the China market action didn’t predict US market action.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

zaboomafoozarg wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:18 am
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:57 pm Forrester on Jan 27th
Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.

S&P 500 - has topped for the short & medium term. Not going above 3,800.
viewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473

*LOL*
Ah but he left the definition of "short & medium term" open... for all we know, that could've meant 5 to 10 minutes!

I am still waiting on that $12 silver and $1300 gold too.
Fibonacci rapproachment in the monthly Geiger–Müller tube hints at SP falling by 50% at some point in the next 1 to 480 months.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Tax loss harvested some VWO, sold a UK funny money stock off, and backed the truck up on VTI.

I did not fist pump my hand in the air and chant U-S-A while I did that. But I might have. Bringing money back home. Cuz that's where the heart is.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:11 am
zaboomafoozarg wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:18 am
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:57 pm Forrester on Jan 27th
Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.

S&P 500 - has topped for the short & medium term. Not going above 3,800.
viewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473

*LOL*
Ah but he left the definition of "short & medium term" open... for all we know, that could've meant 5 to 10 minutes!

I am still waiting on that $12 silver and $1300 gold too.
Fibonacci rapproachment in the monthly Geiger–Müller tube hints at SP falling by 50% at some point in the next 1 to 480 months.
haha... sounds about as precise and useful as a GMO forecast. :D
Trade the news and you will lose.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:11 am Fibonacci rapproachment in the monthly Geiger–Müller tube hints at SP falling by 50% at some point in the next 1 to 480 months.
So - the S&P will fall 50% between now and July 2061 (when I’ll be 107 years old) -

Sounds like it’s time for me to load up on ammo and canned beans, and hunker down in my foxhole to await the inevitable stock market disaster. :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

Stinky wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:50 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:11 am Fibonacci rapproachment in the monthly Geiger–Müller tube hints at SP falling by 50% at some point in the next 1 to 480 months.
So - the S&P will fall 50% between now and July 2061 (when I’ll be 107 years old) -

Sounds like it’s time for me to load up on ammo and canned beans, and hunker down in my foxhole to await the inevitable stock market disaster. :twisted:
Can't say with certainty if it will fall 50% before 2061 but the odds are that it could. (By the way in the process of being silly, that is actually an important date, the return of comet Halley.)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:45 pm S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
Ok. We will see.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Semantics »

Forester wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:45 pm
000 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:33 pm
Forester wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am Because in the northern hemisphere, people return to work, summer is over, volume picks up and so on. Financial crises historically have taken place after summer.
How deep and long of a drop are you anticipating?
S&P 500 will peak between 4,500 & 5,000 from mid-August to late September then correct by 50% to 60%. I expect to confirm the top 2 to 3 weeks after it actually happens. Probably the bear market lasts for around a year or into early 2023.
Such a drastic selloff would imply substantial amounts of funds shifting into other asset classes. Where do you think the money will go? Bonds?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Semantics wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:53 pm Such a drastic selloff would imply substantial amounts of funds shifting into other asset classes. Where do you think the money will go? Bonds?
It doesn't have to go anywhere. Security prices are set by marginal trading. A trade of an existing security does not change the amount of money "in" the stock market. If the underlying is known to be fundamentally worth less, the price will be less assuming efficient markets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runcyc »

000 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:33 pm
Semantics wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:53 pm Such a drastic selloff would imply substantial amounts of funds shifting into other asset classes. Where do you think the money will go? Bonds?
It doesn't have to go anywhere. Security prices are set by marginal trading. A trade of an existing security does not change the amount of money "in" the stock market. If the underlying is known to be fundamentally worth less, the price will be less assuming efficient markets.
All security prices are not entirely set by margin trading. For such a drastic selloff to occur, of "50-60%", many retail investors would be selling actual long positions, not only options traders or short sellers, trading on margin. A drastic selloff would require more selling than that done by habitually frequent traders.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

runcyc wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:55 pm All security prices are not entirely set by margin trading. For such a drastic selloff to occur, of "50-60%", many retail investors would be selling actual long positions, not only options traders or short sellers, trading on margin. A drastic selloff would require more selling than that done by habitually frequent traders.
So if <event> happens that makes the fundamental value of <stock> worth 50% less, marginal buyers aren't going to immediately set their bid to that?

Why would they pay more than it's now worth???

Gaps happen all the time with individual issues and can happen with broad indices when a systemic factor changes.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

000 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:05 pm
runcyc wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:55 pm All security prices are not entirely set by margin trading. For such a drastic selloff to occur, of "50-60%", many retail investors would be selling actual long positions, not only options traders or short sellers, trading on margin. A drastic selloff would require more selling than that done by habitually frequent traders.
So if <event> happens that makes the fundamental value of <stock> worth 50% less, marginal buyers aren't going to immediately set their bid to that?

Why would they pay more than it's now worth???

Gaps happen all the time with individual issues and can happen with broad indices when a systemic factor changes.
Event will happen that sets the value to 15%-20% less, then a bunch of people will panic and sell at any price, completely ignoring fundamentals.

Come on, you've been around long enough to see this in action.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:07 pm Event will happen that sets the value to 15%-20% less, then a bunch of people will panic and sell at any price, completely ignoring fundamentals.

Come on, you've been around long enough to see this in action.
That is a likely situation I suppose. But things like the 1929 crash weren't just to due to "panic". Bad macroeconomic news broke the bubble and stocks quickly (for that era) moved to more correct pricings. In the modern internet era, something like the 1929 crash could happen in three days.

Changes in market cap can happen without the money going somewhere. The market cap value can just literally be destroyed by valuation change. For every secondary trade of stock (does not include IPOs, new issues, etc.), there is a buyer and a seller. The buyer puts X dollars "in" and the seller gets X dollars "out". No money enters or leaves the stocks market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

000 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:17 pm Changes in market cap can happen without the money going somewhere. The market cap value can just literally be destroyed by valuation change. For every secondary trade of stock (does not include IPOs, new issues, etc.), there is a buyer and a seller. The buyer puts X dollars "in" and the seller gets X dollars "out". No money enters or leaves the stocks market.
Recent example of an event (sudden regulatory change) that reduced market cap value without the money going "somewhere":

China Stocks in U.S. Suffer Biggest Two-Day Wipeout Since 2008

No reason this won't scale up for the "right" event. The stock market is not a piggy bank. It is an auction house.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

The last big tech earnings week was also a disappointment?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

lostdog wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 8:58 am The last big tech earnings week was also a disappointment?
I think it was essentially flat. The earnings were great but the stocks didn't really move. Nasdaq is crashing now for whatever reason
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Backed the truck up a little on Google stock. 10 shares.

Just cuz.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by YRT70 »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:58 am Backed the truck up a little on Google stock. 10 shares.
Non native English speaker here, what does this mean?

I've seen the phrase a lot 'backed up the truck today'.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rocketsrule »

YRT70 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:02 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:58 am Backed the truck up a little on Google stock. 10 shares.
Non native English speaker here, what does this mean?

I've seen the phrase a lot 'backed up the truck today'.
Think of a dump truck, backing up with sand in it and dumping it onto something like a playground.

Instead of saying he is backing up his fictitious dump truck of money and putting it on a few stocks
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

YRT70 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:02 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:58 am Backed the truck up a little on Google stock. 10 shares.
Non native English speaker here, what does this mean?

I've seen the phrase a lot 'backed up the truck today'.
It means you back up your truck to the loading dock and load the truck with goods.

In this case, it means buy stocks. And a lot of stocks since you are filling up your entire truck.

It's supposed to mean that you are finally spending a LOT of cash you had sitting on the side because it's a good buying opportunity.

Some people around here say it even when stocks are going up, which doesn't make much sense. It's usually a phrase about loading up on stocks when they are down and cheaper.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by YRT70 »

rocketsrule wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:08 am
YRT70 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:02 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:58 am Backed the truck up a little on Google stock. 10 shares.
Non native English speaker here, what does this mean?

I've seen the phrase a lot 'backed up the truck today'.
Think of a dump truck, backing up with sand in it and dumping it onto something like a playground.

Instead of saying he is backing up his fictitious dump truck of money and putting it on a few stocks
Thank you.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by OohLaLa »

rocketsrule wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:08 am
YRT70 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:02 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:58 am Backed the truck up a little on Google stock. 10 shares.
Non native English speaker here, what does this mean?

I've seen the phrase a lot 'backed up the truck today'.
Think of a dump truck, backing up with sand in it and dumping it onto something like a playground.

Instead of saying he is backing up his fictitious dump truck of money and putting it on a few stocks
I always get a chuckle when this comes up. haha

Visual:
https://i.imgur.com/ozyCSWU.mp4

More detailed:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/backupthetruck.asp

:)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Well, from now on I won't get excited about tech earnings week.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anon_investor »

lostdog wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:15 am Well, from now on I won't get excited about tech earnings week.
What is tech earnings week? :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc »

Pathetic dip. Hardly worth the effort to buy with the few scraps of cash I have.
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