looks to me like they were already jumping him towards the bell!Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:17 pm Ouch! Tough day… but my gut tells me dip buyers will start jumping in soon.
U.S. stocks in free fall
- gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Shaken, not stirred makes for a weak martini.
“Doing nothing is better than being busy doing nothing.” – Lao Tzu
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The end is nigh.
I had some trouble this morning selling off my TQQQ and UPRO positions at Schwab. No idea what's up with them. I took some profit. I didn't want to be in them given the volatility. I didn't touch anything else.
I had some trouble this morning selling off my TQQQ and UPRO positions at Schwab. No idea what's up with them. I took some profit. I didn't want to be in them given the volatility. I didn't touch anything else.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Don’t let anyone else ruin your portfolio. It’s your portfolio. Ruin it yourself!!!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I've not checked my PF value since last Thursday. Didn't want to see it after Friday, nor after today.
It's just easier that way, at least for me.
It's just easier that way, at least for me.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I need another ALL IN move !
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My portfolio tracker automatically creates a daily drawdown % (from all time high) that is averaged over the last week of trading, it keeps things in perspective
I started this just before the pandemic began almost by accident.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Heh, cool idea. What software is that?retiringwhen wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:21 pmMy portfolio tracker automatically creates a daily drawdown % (from all time high) that is averaged over the last week of trading, it keeps things in perspective
I started this just before the pandemic began almost by accident.
I didn't check mine last spring for over a month during the worst part. In 2008 I don't think I checked it at all, maybe early in the year, and probably didn't again until it started recovering well into 2009.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
S&P 500
just over 2% drop was the low intraday
about 1% above that low now in the futures market
still about 2.5% off the all time highs from last week
just over 2% drop was the low intraday
about 1% above that low now in the futures market
still about 2.5% off the all time highs from last week
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thoughts about having drawdown go above 100%?retiringwhen wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:42 pmhome brew, all done in google sheets with data collection scripts written in gscript (thanks for Kevin M for great samples!) and then tons of formulas and charts. It tracks everything including my retirement date!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
By definition impossible. A drawdown is the percentage that the current balance is down from the all-time high in the past. If if a new high is achieved, all future balances are measured from that date. We don't re-write the past (I am not Marty McFly )fortfun wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:50 pmThoughts about having drawdown go above 100%?retiringwhen wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:42 pmhome brew, all done in google sheets with data collection scripts written in gscript (thanks for Kevin M for great samples!) and then tons of formulas and charts. It tracks everything including my retirement date!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ha, thanks, way over my head.retiringwhen wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:42 pmhome brew, all done in google sheets with data collection scripts written in gscript (thanks for Kevin M for great samples!) and then tons of formulas and charts. It tracks everything including my retirement date!
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I removed several posts discussing the coronavirus. Yesterday's drop was explained by the coronavirus, but the posts went beyond that. As a reminder, see: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Maybe. That’s what the talking heads are claiming and I guess it makes some sense but why now?
Folks claim the market is always right but geez…we’ve known about delta for a while. If this is really why the market dropped then from a broad sense the lag is exploitable to some degree.
Interesting though…like last year we had both pandemic fear and oil weirdness at the same time.
- firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ye olde Dead cat bounce incoming.
Speaking of the headlines du jour, it occurs to me that dead cat bounce is never the headline. I don't see why that should be off limits. Maybe they just use a code. Like "Stocks recover slightly as selling pressure eased" might get used and maybe that could be the secret code.
I think writing that daily stock market headline is the easiest job in the world, but it would require someone with no sense of humor.
Speaking of the headlines du jour, it occurs to me that dead cat bounce is never the headline. I don't see why that should be off limits. Maybe they just use a code. Like "Stocks recover slightly as selling pressure eased" might get used and maybe that could be the secret code.
I think writing that daily stock market headline is the easiest job in the world, but it would require someone with no sense of humor.
This time is the same
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yeah. I'm often amused by the "Stocks fell sharply today on news of [foo]" taglines. Usually foo is kinda plausible, but that doesn't mean stocks actually fell because of foo. Just a headline writer's need to encapsulate the change in a pithy way.
Last edited by Da5id on Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Because on Monday there was a mask mandate in LA county, the largest county in the United States with 10 million people, and on Friday there wasn't a mask mandate.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 amMaybe. That’s what the talking heads are claiming and I guess it makes some sense but why now?
Folks claim the market is always right but geez…we’ve known about delta for a while. If this is really why the market dropped then from a broad sense the lag is exploitable to some degree.
Interesting though…like last year we had both pandemic fear and oil weirdness at the same time.
Yes, it's pithy, and not 100% accurate. Most people knew it was coming. The market is definitely forward-looking.
But it does make sense this one time that people would start to wonder if this was real again when LA county imposed a mask mandate.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
During the unexpected massive recovery last year I remember dead cat headlines…firebirdparts wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:16 am Ye olde Dead cat bounce incoming.
Speaking of the headlines du jour, it occurs to me that dead cat bounce is never the headline.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones ... at-bounce/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exami ... 2020-03-29
https://fortune.com/2020/05/16/coronavi ... at-bounce/
Did I misunderstand your comment? Because last year you couldn’t swing a dead cat without it hitting a dead cat bouncing headline…
What’s with dead cat sayings? (Yes, I’m aware the swinging one is a cat o’nine tails)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, you could predict the LA mask mandate (or other significant trigger like NYC or whatever) happening by looking at the rate of new infections…that should be exploitable from an investment perspective right?HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:45 amBecause on Monday there was a mask mandate in LA county, the largest county in the United States with 10 million people, and on Friday there wasn't a mask mandate.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 amMaybe. That’s what the talking heads are claiming and I guess it makes some sense but why now?
Folks claim the market is always right but geez…we’ve known about delta for a while. If this is really why the market dropped then from a broad sense the lag is exploitable to some degree.
Interesting though…like last year we had both pandemic fear and oil weirdness at the same time.
Yes, it's pithy, and not 100% accurate. Most people knew it was coming. The market is definitely forward-looking.
But it does make sense this one time that people would start to wonder if this was real again when LA county imposed a mask mandate.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm just saying this time there IS a pretty easy explanation (even though it might be wrong)nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:50 amWell, you could predict the LA mask mandate (or other significant trigger like NYC or whatever) happening by looking at the rate of new infections…that should be exploitable from an investment perspective right?HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:45 amBecause on Monday there was a mask mandate in LA county, the largest county in the United States with 10 million people, and on Friday there wasn't a mask mandate.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 amMaybe. That’s what the talking heads are claiming and I guess it makes some sense but why now?
Folks claim the market is always right but geez…we’ve known about delta for a while. If this is really why the market dropped then from a broad sense the lag is exploitable to some degree.
Interesting though…like last year we had both pandemic fear and oil weirdness at the same time.
Yes, it's pithy, and not 100% accurate. Most people knew it was coming. The market is definitely forward-looking.
But it does make sense this one time that people would start to wonder if this was real again when LA county imposed a mask mandate.
You said "Hey everyone already knew about delta why Monday for crash?"
I'm just telling you what happened over the weekend (LA mask mandate), and that's probably (partially) what caused it to happen on Monday and not last Friday.
I don't think it's exploitable, because humans are fickle.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The set of things that everybody knows will happen is much, much bigger than the set of things that actually happen. Thus market reaction when things actually happen.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
How about we all just take a deep breath... and step away from the market-timing button, alright? That's it... just put the clicker down and walk slowly away from it. Nobody needs to be a hero, here. We can all just go home and this will all be over by end-of-market.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Lostdog is our hero. He just needs to step up and work out. All this is because he's at home on the couch eating bon-bons and only telling us he's working out.OohLaLa wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:45 am How about we all just take a deep breath... and step away from the market-timing button, alright? That's it... just put the clicker down and walk slowly away from it. Nobody needs to be a hero, here. We can all just go home and this will all be over by end-of-market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's hard to comment on this topic but some reports questioning the efficacy of vaccine on the variant suddenly caught attention.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 am Folks claim the market is always right but geez…we’ve known about delta for a while. If this is really why the market dropped then from a broad sense the lag is exploitable to some degree.
Interesting though…like last year we had both pandemic fear and oil weirdness at the same time.
I'm actually curious why the markets are rebounding today as if nothing happened.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Easiest explanation is that stocks were oversold on an RSI basis. But I don't think anyone really knows . . . dip buyers? stock market climbing a wall of fear? These are all just assumptions. And you know what they say about assuming . . .Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:49 amIt's hard to comment on this topic but some reports questioning the efficacy of vaccine on the variant suddenly caught attention.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 am Folks claim the market is always right but geez…we’ve known about delta for a while. If this is really why the market dropped then from a broad sense the lag is exploitable to some degree.
Interesting though…like last year we had both pandemic fear and oil weirdness at the same time.
I'm actually curious why the markets are rebounding today as if nothing happened.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
One logical explanation is that yesterday's drop had absolutely nothing to do with the coronavirus.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:49 amIt's hard to comment on this topic but some reports questioning the efficacy of vaccine on the variant suddenly caught attention.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 am Folks claim the market is always right but geez…we’ve known about delta for a while. If this is really why the market dropped then from a broad sense the lag is exploitable to some degree.
Interesting though…like last year we had both pandemic fear and oil weirdness at the same time.
I'm actually curious why the markets are rebounding today as if nothing happened.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's the one.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Causation in financial headlines is comical at bestWhakamole wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:04 amMarseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:49 amIt's hard to comment on this topic but some reports questioning the efficacy of vaccine on the variant suddenly caught attention.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:10 am Folks claim the market is always right but geez…we’ve known about delta for a while. If this is really why the market dropped then from a broad sense the lag is exploitable to some degree.
Interesting though…like last year we had both pandemic fear and oil weirdness at the same time.
I'm actually curious why the markets are rebounding today as if nothing happened.
One logical explanation is that yesterday's drop had absolutely nothing to do with the coronavirus.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
One day later...Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:17 pm Ouch! Tough day… but my gut tells me dip buyers will start jumping in soon.
"Dip Buyers Fuel Stock Rebound, Led by Cyclicals" link
Good work, gut! Keep taking those probiotics!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Darn it, I should have known the dip would evaporate before payday.
- eye.surgeon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It isn't called a random walk in the park for nothing.
"I would rather be certain of a good return than hopeful of a great one" |
Warren Buffett
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
well, profit taking followed by the immediate realization that there is way too much easy money in this system for things to go down, the party is still on...
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So... is today a DCB (Dead Cat Bounce), or was yesterday just a run-of-the-mill RBD (Really Bad Day)?
The suspense is killing me
The suspense is killing me
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It was at most a bad day, to be a true RBD(tm), the drop needs to be greater than 2.5% and DCB's are kind hard when you are within 5% of an all-time high. Let's call this a Bank Shot (BS) that missed trying to level up on the pinball machine
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ah I keep forgetting the exact definition of a RBDTM. Same Player Try Again!retiringwhen wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:23 amIt was at most a bad day, to be a true RBD(tm), the drop needs to be greater than 2.5% and DCB's are kind hard when you are within 5% of an all-time high. Let's call this a Bank Shot (BS) that missed trying to level up on the pinball machine
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Candor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:09 amThat's the one.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What did I tell you? But I will say it again- lots of week left!Aaand...it'sgone wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:38 am Darn it, I should have known the dip would evaporate before payday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
it's free falling!! ah sorry, my screen was upside down... switching to the soaring thread...
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The first time I heard that phrase was early in the pandemic. It definitely was a popular phrase after we started recovering from the depths of March.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:47 amDuring the unexpected massive recovery last year I remember dead cat headlines…firebirdparts wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:16 am Ye olde Dead cat bounce incoming.
Speaking of the headlines du jour, it occurs to me that dead cat bounce is never the headline.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones ... at-bounce/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exami ... 2020-03-29
https://fortune.com/2020/05/16/coronavi ... at-bounce/
Did I misunderstand your comment? Because last year you couldn’t swing a dead cat without it hitting a dead cat bouncing headline…
What’s with dead cat sayings? (Yes, I’m aware the swinging one is a cat o’nine tails)
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I came up with this some years ago to explain sudden, wide market swings. It may not be right but it satisfies my curiosity:
Buyers and sellers are like fish in a school: They all swim in the same direction and may suddenly change, but they don't know why. They just follow the fish in front of them.
Back in the old days when I checked funds prices in the paper, if it was a big down day I would notice that the vast majority of funds would be down. Same for a big up day -- 90% or so would be up.
Go figure.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Brownian motion with a slight upward bias.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I remember it being very popular during the Great Recession as well. Here is one example, dated March 16, 2009, talking about Nouriel Roubini's assurances that we were going through a dead cat bounce at the time: viewtopic.php?t=34600ApeAttack wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:07 pmThe first time I heard that phrase was early in the pandemic. It definitely was a popular phrase after we started recovering from the depths of March.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:47 amDuring the unexpected massive recovery last year I remember dead cat headlines…firebirdparts wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:16 am Ye olde Dead cat bounce incoming.
Speaking of the headlines du jour, it occurs to me that dead cat bounce is never the headline.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones ... at-bounce/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exami ... 2020-03-29
https://fortune.com/2020/05/16/coronavi ... at-bounce/
Did I misunderstand your comment? Because last year you couldn’t swing a dead cat without it hitting a dead cat bouncing headline…
What’s with dead cat sayings? (Yes, I’m aware the swinging one is a cat o’nine tails)
Oops!
Global Market Portfolio + modest tilt towards volatility (80/20->60/40 as approach FI) + modest tilt away from exchange rate risk (80% global+20% U.S. stocks; currency-hedge bonds) + tax optimization
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I rest my case. +550 today, probably some noise in the next week. Mr. Market…. so very sad how predictable you are.mrspock wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:13 pm I see days like this and I can only remember how naive I was in my younger investing years. These days I just laugh. Cue the 400 pt day in a few days to a week, followed by some noise to get back to even a couple weeks after that and new ATHs again after.
Stop reading this thread and go water some plants.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep, I’m back to where I was a week or two ago.mrspock wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:42 pmI rest my case. +550 today, probably some noise in the next week. Mr. Market…. so very sad how predictable you are.mrspock wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:13 pm I see days like this and I can only remember how naive I was in my younger investing years. These days I just laugh. Cue the 400 pt day in a few days to a week, followed by some noise to get back to even a couple weeks after that and new ATHs again after.
Stop reading this thread and go water some plants.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
this thread ("Dying Broke (On Purpose) Article") popping up with the freefall thread. So folks.... if we know the ending (e.g. dying broke), don't get too excited for a few percentages drop. It'll all be gone when we die.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=326938&start=150
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=326938&start=150
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, they do.Bluce wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:07 pmDo the holdings in your new account, lumped in with your tax-deferred accounts, meet your selected overall asset allocation?MichaelAZ wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:07 pmAfter maxing retirement accounts past 4 years, finally got to the point where I was ready to start a taxable brokerage with excess cash (had been watching the cash build and build and finally had the courage to do something with it; got a $20K inheritance last month). Started that account w/ $25K last Tuesday. 62% Total US Stock VTI, 15% Total Int VXUS, and 23% Total Bond BND. Down 2.2% overall on my $25K investment. I sold $500 of BND today and bought VTI and VXUS just to make myself feel better (BND now at 20% of taxable brokerage). Taxable brokerage only represents 2.7% of my overall net worth, but "feels" different because it's not "locked" away in retirement accounts (I'm late 30s). I have no temptation to sell stock. The temptation is to sell even more BND and buy VTI. I will resist and stay the course.mtmingus wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:43 pmI did buy some (not lump sum) on Friday last week. Now you feel better.Cautionary Tale wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:40 pm Alright. ..those of you who lump summed on Friday, we want to hear your story. (So we can feel better about ourselves).