minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:22 am
Pathetic dip. Hardly worth the effort to buy with the few scraps of cash I have.
Agreed. It's hardly worth the tortilla chips necessary to scrape up this paltry dip from the jar, but I can't help myself, because "Salsa shark! We're gonna need a bigger boat."
flyingaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:24 pm
I have been awaiting for that elusive 10~20% pull-back that many analysts predicted for ages. Come on, let me have it.
It's too late now if you've been waiting for ages.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
flyingaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:24 pm
I have been awaiting for that elusive 10~20% pull-back that many analysts predicted for ages. Come on, let me have it.
Lol. We had one better… -34% last year. It was like free money, taking candy from a baby, never a more emotionally driven — data free crash, a more telegraphed recovery. Where were you for that? Even now…. this run up is painfully obvious (recovery, inflation, stimulus, low interest rates).
I think you will be waiting for a number of years yet. Probably some event will force the fed to increase interest rates (inflation?) and a choice between lesser evils will be forced upon them. Equities might get the short straw here and I can see that causing some pain.
Probably not as clean as I’m describing, but something like that seems reasonable.
flyingaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:24 pm
I have been awaiting for that elusive 10~20% pull-back that many analysts predicted for ages. Come on, let me have it.
Lol. We had one better… -34% last year. It was like free money, taking candy from a baby, never a more emotionally driven — data free crash, a more telegraphed recovery. Where were you for that? Even now…. this run up is painfully obvious (recovery, inflation, stimulus, low interest rates).
I think you will be waiting for a number of years yet. Probably some event will force the fed to increase interest rates (inflation?) and a choice between lesser evils will be forced upon them. Equities might get the short straw here and I can see that causing some pain.
Probably not as clean as I’m describing, but something like that seems reasonable.
I missed that one, as I was waiting for at least a 50% drop at that time.
flyingaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:24 pm
I have been awaiting for that elusive 10~20% pull-back that many analysts predicted for ages. Come on, let me have it.
Lol. We had one better… -34% last year. It was like free money, taking candy from a baby, never a more emotionally driven — data free crash, a more telegraphed recovery. Where were you for that? Even now…. this run up is painfully obvious (recovery, inflation, stimulus, low interest rates).
I think you will be waiting for a number of years yet. Probably some event will force the fed to increase interest rates (inflation?) and a choice between lesser evils will be forced upon them. Equities might get the short straw here and I can see that causing some pain.
Probably not as clean as I’m describing, but something like that seems reasonable.
I missed that one, as I was waiting for at least a 50% drop at that time.
It's good that you have reduced your threshold for investing your money from a 50% drop to a 10-20% drop. You may wish to consider reducing it to 0-1% drop. Today looks like it qualifies!
Global Market Portfolio + modest tilt towards volatility (80/20->60/40 as approach FI) + modest tilt away from exchange rate risk (80% global+20% U.S. stocks; currency-hedge bonds) + tax optimization
flyingaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:24 pm
I have been awaiting for that elusive 10~20% pull-back that many analysts predicted for ages. Come on, let me have it.
Lol. We had one better… -34% last year. It was like free money, taking candy from a baby, never a more emotionally driven — data free crash, a more telegraphed recovery. Where were you for that? Even now…. this run up is painfully obvious (recovery, inflation, stimulus, low interest rates).
I think you will be waiting for a number of years yet. Probably some event will force the fed to increase interest rates (inflation?) and a choice between lesser evils will be forced upon them. Equities might get the short straw here and I can see that causing some pain.
Probably not as clean as I’m describing, but something like that seems reasonable.
I missed that one, as I was waiting for at least a 50% drop at that time.
Rebalance bands are your friend. You won’t capture gains from a given crash/correction — but you will capture a satisfyingly large piece of it.
Shift your mindset from perfection to “good enough” or from avoiding all mistakes to “avoid the big mistakes”.
Rebalance bands effectively do this mechanically, without emotion or guessing. The band hits… you rebalance. Market goes lower again? Band will hit again and you get another piece of it, rinse repeat.
It's going to be ugly tomorrow for QQQ at least. Amazon tanking 7% and Pinterest down 16% and 22% for today if you include the after hours. So much for my speculative play
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:03 pm
It's going to be ugly tomorrow for QQQ at least. Amazon tanking 7% and Pinterest down 16% and 22% for today if you include the after hours. So much for my speculative play
QQQ is not looking nice after hour. Maybe it's rotation back to value from growth again, like earlier this year.
...or just don't worry about rotations from sector to sector. Buy VTSAX OR VTI and hold, long term. These rotations, long-term, are nothing in the total picture.
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:03 pm
It's going to be ugly tomorrow for QQQ at least. Amazon tanking 7% and Pinterest down 16% and 22% for today if you include the after hours. So much for my speculative play
QQQ is not looking nice after hour. Maybe it's rotation back to value from growth again, like earlier this year.
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:03 pm
It's going to be ugly tomorrow for QQQ at least. Amazon tanking 7% and Pinterest down 16% and 22% for today if you include the after hours. So much for my speculative play
QQQ is not looking nice after hour. Maybe it's rotation back to value from growth again, like earlier this year.
Time to buy the dip!
What dip? A 15 to 17% drop would simply mean losing the gains of the last 3 months. I dont see that as anything. A 25% drop would mean Im a little down for the year. Dont see what would cause 25% sell off however. Hardly anything for a long term Boogleheader.
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:03 pm
It's going to be ugly tomorrow for QQQ at least. Amazon tanking 7% and Pinterest down 16% and 22% for today if you include the after hours. So much for my speculative play
QQQ is not looking nice after hour. Maybe it's rotation back to value from growth again, like earlier this year.
Time to buy the dip!
What dip? A 15 to 17% drop would simply mean losing the gains of the last 3 months. I dont see that as anything. A 25% drop would mean Im a little down for the year. Dont see what would cause 25% sell off however. Hardly anything for a long term Boogleheader.
runcyc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:18 pm
...or just don't worry about rotations from sector to sector. Buy VTSAX OR VTI and hold, long term. These rotations, long-term, are nothing in the total picture.
I agree. Trying to pinpoint the latest hot sector, or value vs. growth, yadda yadda is futile.
In the long run, the total market covers them all.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:03 pm
It's going to be ugly tomorrow for QQQ at least. Amazon tanking 7% and Pinterest down 16% and 22% for today if you include the after hours. So much for my speculative play
QQQ is not looking nice after hour. Maybe it's rotation back to value from growth again, like earlier this year.
Time to buy the dip!
What dip? A 15 to 17% drop would simply mean losing the gains of the last 3 months. I dont see that as anything. A 25% drop would mean Im a little down for the year. Dont see what would cause 25% sell off however. Hardly anything for a long term Boogleheader.
I was joking around. I do start loading up but there isn't a big dip to exploit just yet.
And here I am, with a nice paycheck today, buying... bonds, on a day when they're basically the only thing that's up, like a good boglehead . Trying to make up for market timing a couple of weeks ago lol.
flyingaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:24 pm
I have been awaiting for that elusive 10~20% pull-back that many analysts predicted for ages. Come on, let me have it.
Lol. We had one better… -34% last year. It was like free money, taking candy from a baby, never a more emotionally driven — data free crash, a more telegraphed recovery. Where were you for that?
I missed that one, as I was waiting for at least a 50% drop at that time.
Hmmm. Well, now, self-awareness is the ultimate form of aggression
Come on guys, stop with the buy on the dip stuff. If you are so optimistic, you should be posting in the "Soar" thread. We need truly bearish sentiment on the "free fall" thread to keep this rally going.
Sort of like the "Elves" on Wall $treet Week back in the day, the market was bullish when they were bearish and the market was bearish when the Elves were bullish, a pretty good contrary indicator. The Elves were a panel of Technical Analysts lead by Robert Nurock, I remember when Rukeyser teased him on the program about this and Mr. Nurock had a look of disgust on his face. Finally, Rukeyser fired the Elves in 2001 after the Tech crash. Of the whole Elves panel, Gail Dudack was the lone bear, she was fired first but her bearishness was eventually vindicated.
Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:46 pm
Good time to buy AMZN, $100B+ revenue every quarter, they will be fine.
Finally converted my ARKK to AMZN, today was a good day. I'm ARK-free now!
What if it floods? Going to get flood insurance?
My AMZN position sucked today. But when I look back at previous earning releases, it mostly drop right after. This looks normal to me. I would like to see a positive real return for 2021 for AMZN.
nedsaid wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:12 pm
Come on guys, stop with the buy on the dip stuff. If you are so optimistic, you should be posting in the "Soar" thread. We need truly bearish sentiment on the "free fall" thread to keep this rally going.
Sort of like the "Elves" on Wall $treet Week back in the day, the market was bullish when they were bearish and the market was bearish when the Elves were bullish, a pretty good contrary indicator. The Elves were a panel of Technical Analysts lead by Robert Nurock, I remember when Rukeyser teased him on the program about this and Mr. Nurock had a look of disgust on his face. Finally, Rukeyser fired the Elves in 2001 after the Tech crash. Of the whole Elves panel, Gail Dudack was the lone bear, she was fired first but her bearishness was eventually vindicated.
Be like the Elves. Please.
I loved that show, kinda forgotten about it in recent years. It was a good thing to settle in with on a Friday evening.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:46 pm
Good time to buy AMZN, $100B+ revenue every quarter, they will be fine.
Finally converted my ARKK to AMZN, today was a good day. I'm ARK-free now!
What if it floods? Going to get flood insurance?
My AMZN position sucked today. But when I look back at previous earning releases, it mostly drop right after. This looks normal to me. I would like to see a positive real return for 2021 for AMZN.