Only way I could gamble online in my state.tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:56 amMGM, sounds fitting. MGM stands for Might as well Gamble some More!
U.S. stocks in free fall
- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
TQQQ down 31.86% YTD
UPRO down 22.04% YTD
The joys of leverage.
UPRO down 22.04% YTD
The joys of leverage.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I would like to know too.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:00 pm All this talk about wanting a crash to buy "cheap" - what were you doing in March 2020? Buying with both fists or running for the exits? We already had a great sale on stocks at that time but it is hard to buy when everyone is saying the world is ending....
In my case, I buy VSTAX regardless of market conditions, although I am certain that probably runs counter to what some book author or pointy head says.
Also, I would like someone or anyone to tell when the market is in the optimal condition, preferably somewhat before it actually gets there.
Also, if someone could tell what the market's proper valuaton is, that would be helpful.
My lifetime requirement for investment advice was satisfied upon reading Jack Bogle write that most people need only a low cost S&P 500 Index fund.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
LOL. How many times are you going to ask that question before you realize there is no one answer?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
- FreddieFIRE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Let's circle back on Monday and see how we did! These are always interesting times to follow the forum, as we see the full range of expectations, emotion, etc.EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:13 amMarket down on Friday, if there is no good news over the weekend, likely market will be down on Monday as well.FreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:37 pm It's the weekend, and VTI is only 9.5% off of its all time high. I'll bet anybody a dollar that the bears wimp out and we never even make it to that frightening "correction" land. We've seen this show before.
I generally consider the following:
Less than a correction (<10%) = random nothing
Correction (>10%, <20%) = noise
Bear market (>20%) = distraction
Crash (>40%???) = opportunity
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
- FreddieFIRE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I took it to be rhetorical...
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think that is a solid and succinct way to look at it and people would do well to think along these lines. I might personally switch out >40% for >30% = opportunity because 40% declines are relatively rare and I want more opportunities in life.FreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:11 pmI generally consider the following:EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:13 amMarket down on Friday, if there is no good news over the weekend, likely market will be down on Monday as well.FreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:37 pm It's the weekend, and VTI is only 9.5% off of its all time high. I'll bet anybody a dollar that the bears wimp out and we never even make it to that frightening "correction" land. We've seen this show before.
Less than a correction (<10%) = random nothing
Correction (>10%, <20%) = noise
Bear market (>20%) = distraction
Crash (>40%???) = opportunity
Last edited by Candor on Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sold off my TQQQ last year. Leverage is great when the market is soaring. It sucks when volatility picks up. It's even worse in a down market unless you're taking the other side. There might be an opportunity to leverage again once this market bottoms out.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:06 pm TQQQ down 31.86% YTD
UPRO down 22.04% YTD
The joys of leverage.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I do like to see this thread pop up as it shows that we are not in any state of euphoria in the markets. It appears that we are experiencing a garden variety Stock Market correction, market down 10% or so, and this is perfectly normal behavior. Good to see pessimism on the forum as the pessimists are potential future optimists. The market needs buyers to come in to keep the averages moving in, bull markets end when you run out of buyers. This is not the end of the Bull Market, so far just a correction. If we drop much more, I might even buy into the ARK Funds.
A fool and his money are good for business.
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'll wait for the post of the act; not the post of an intention.peskypesky wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 pmI'll be posting! But I think it's way too early to get back into the market. The Fed hasn't even really done anything yet.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:59 am I am eagerly awaiting a flurry of updates from posters who have been waiting for a pull back to get into the market or get back into the market with the cash they have been sitting on because the market was too high.
Prediction: There won't be more than a few.
- FreddieFIRE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That might make for an interesting thread. The Market Timers Show & Tell Thread. Probably cause an uproar though.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:30 pmI'll wait for the post of the act; not the post of an intention.peskypesky wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 pmI'll be posting! But I think it's way too early to get back into the market. The Fed hasn't even really done anything yet.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:59 am I am eagerly awaiting a flurry of updates from posters who have been waiting for a pull back to get into the market or get back into the market with the cash they have been sitting on because the market was too high.
Prediction: There won't be more than a few.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
NASDAQ crossed my mind.FreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:34 pmI don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
A fool and his money are good for business.
- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I always find it funny that on TV they talk about the NASDAQ Composite (2,500 stocks) when referring to whether it is up or down but discussion of buying and selling centers around the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). I am not even sure there is a mutual fund or ETF for the composite. More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.nedsaid wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:38 pmNASDAQ crossed my mind.FreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:34 pmI don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I interpreted that to mean those companies are listed on the NASDAQ exchange as opposed to the NYSE.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:58 pm More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.
- canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I rebalanced bonds to stocks twice, but I didn’t enjoy it.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:00 pm All this talk about wanting a crash to buy "cheap" - what were you doing in March 2020? Buying with both fists or running for the exits? We already had a great sale on stocks at that time but it is hard to buy when everyone is saying the world is ending....
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm just happy with my SCV and Ex-US cushioning the free fall. For once my M1 purchases bought all US funds past couple times. It was weird
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
- sf_tech_saver
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Tony,abuss368 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:41 amDo you think Fundrise will ride this out in terms of not adjusting any NAV of the real estate down? Assuming it is a short term pullback.sf_tech_saver wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:04 pm I sense some buying opportunities for the next year or two as the interest rate changes shake out.
While you can't time the market you can certainly try to be esp thrifty on your savings rate when the market is under its 200++ day averages to the downside. I plan on tightening the belt as much as possible as long as we are headed mostly down!
Buying consistently and maximally through the corrections is where we really add value to the market as investors. Let's go....
Tony
You make a great point and this is why I only have TOY money in Fundrise to observe it -- I don't really trust their NAVs because its not liquid and traded daily in any meaningful way. Every time you login to your account they tease you with some small incremental gain and it feels a little manipulative. I only learned this by exploring it though so no regrets on my experimental $3k!
VT/VTI for life
BTW, if VTI takes extra hard hits this year vs. VT I would find it fine to shift more money into the most beat-up of the pair. A little flexibility between VOO/VTI/VT makes Vanguard investing a bit more fun As long as I never sell and only wiggle on ongoing purchases it's harmless...
Buying as much beat-up VTI this year as I can...the XVF portion of it has just been hammered! I kinda don't like that the SPAC money is floating around in XVF but....oh well...
VTI is a modern marvel
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Big tech earnings week coming up.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
US stock indices from their all time highs as of 1/21/22:
DJIA -7%
S&P500 -8.7%
NASDAQ -15%
Russell 2000 -19.1%
VTI -9.5%
DJIA -7%
S&P500 -8.7%
NASDAQ -15%
Russell 2000 -19.1%
VTI -9.5%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:45 amWhat’s your current portfolio?ivgrivchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am I am hoping for a market crash.
As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.
I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
The longer the better.How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?
In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
NASDAQ is a very significant part of the US Stock Market.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:58 pmI always find it funny that on TV they talk about the NASDAQ Composite (2,500 stocks) when referring to whether it is up or down but discussion of buying and selling centers around the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). I am not even sure there is a mutual fund or ETF for the composite. More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.nedsaid wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:38 pmNASDAQ crossed my mind.FreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:34 pmI don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
VT -6.42% YTD
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
- abuss368
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Thanks James and that is useful. I read a lot about Fundrise and registered on their website. I certainly did enough due diligence!sf_tech_saver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:08 pmTony,abuss368 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:41 amDo you think Fundrise will ride this out in terms of not adjusting any NAV of the real estate down? Assuming it is a short term pullback.sf_tech_saver wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:04 pm I sense some buying opportunities for the next year or two as the interest rate changes shake out.
While you can't time the market you can certainly try to be esp thrifty on your savings rate when the market is under its 200++ day averages to the downside. I plan on tightening the belt as much as possible as long as we are headed mostly down!
Buying consistently and maximally through the corrections is where we really add value to the market as investors. Let's go....
Tony
You make a great point and this is why I only have TOY money in Fundrise to observe it -- I don't really trust their NAVs because its not liquid and traded daily in any meaningful way. Every time you login to your account they tease you with some small incremental gain and it feels a little manipulative. I only learned this by exploring it though so no regrets on my experimental $3k!
VT/VTI for life
BTW, if VTI takes extra hard hits this year vs. VT I would find it fine to shift more money into the most beat-up of the pair. A little flexibility between VOO/VTI/VT makes Vanguard investing a bit more fun As long as I never sell and only wiggle on ongoing purchases it's harmless...
Buying as much beat-up VTI this year as I can...the XVF portion of it has just been hammered! I kinda don't like that the SPAC money is floating around in XVF but....oh well...
Best.
Tony
Last edited by abuss368 on Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, we don't know the time frame and it could be a decade but it's a good chance that yes we will see another all time high on all indexes.flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You cast too wide of a net with that comment. That statement is false on its face. Some - certainly, everyone - certainly not, most - not if they have the proper AA and this isn’t their first roller coaster ride.flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Cheers
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Even if not, many people on here have an investing plan, which includes maintaining their desired asset allocation during market drawdowns. If you can’t sleep well with your current allocation, then you probably are taking on too much risk and should adjust to prevent yourself from making very ill-timed sales near the lows of a market crash.jason2459 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:46 pmWell, we don't know the time frame and it could be a decade but it's a good chance that yes we will see another all time high on all indexes.flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Warren Buffett always says one thing. “I know one thing about the stock market in the future. It will be higher!”jason2459 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:46 pmWell, we don't know the time frame and it could be a decade but it's a good chance that yes we will see another all time high on all indexes.flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
I always liked that line!
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If the market keeps going down, so the topics will be: Should we change our SWR to 0.1% (just a joke)?Silk McCue wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:53 pmYou cast too wide of a net with that comment. That statement is false on its face. Some - certainly, everyone - certainly not, most - not if they have the proper AA and this isn’t their first roller coaster ride.flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Cheers
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Many people's plans include reducing spending in a down market. We have not seen that kinds of discussions yet.fanmail wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:57 pmEven if not, many people on here have an investing plan, which includes maintaining their desired asset allocation during market drawdowns. If you can’t sleep well with your current allocation, then you probably are taking on too much risk and should adjust to prevent yourself from making very ill-timed sales near the lows of a market crash.jason2459 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:46 pmWell, we don't know the time frame and it could be a decade but it's a good chance that yes we will see another all time high on all indexes.flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Didn't one of the FIRE trolls bloggers already suggest that the real SWR is now 0.5% because of Treasury yields?flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:16 pm If the market keeps going down, so the topics will be: Should we change our SWR to 0.1% (just a joke)?
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
- canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
IIRC it was a website selling some insurance product and someone posted a thread here where they absolutely insisted it wasn't insane for multiple pages.drk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:19 pmDidn't one of the FIRE trolls bloggers already suggest that the real SWR is now 0.5% because of Treasury yields?flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:16 pm If the market keeps going down, so the topics will be: Should we change our SWR to 0.1% (just a joke)?
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Lol…90% of the time the thread is totally not serious. The other 10% it looks like March 2020 and 2008 and maybe a little 2018.flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
We can look back to March 2020…but I don’t remember “calm” being the operative word. Lol
Edit: I went hunting, jump back to around page 300. Gallows humor is sorta calm I guess…
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
In times of market turmoil many of us go through a ton of emotions. It is very possible this will all turn around next week or we might be in for a bumpy ride for years to come. No one knows. Right now, particularly for the newer investors maybe it is time to evaluate your jitters.
Take a look at the link in my signature. The thread was started by Nisiprius back in 2011 and I think it applies very well today.
One thing I do know. If we can buckle in and hold on tight...eventually....some time in the future we will all come out better on the other side.
Take a look at the link in my signature. The thread was started by Nisiprius back in 2011 and I think it applies very well today.
One thing I do know. If we can buckle in and hold on tight...eventually....some time in the future we will all come out better on the other side.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So $300K in US TSM.ivgrivchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:21 pmThe target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:45 amWhat’s your current portfolio?ivgrivchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am I am hoping for a market crash.
As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.
I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
The longer the better.How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?
In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
In just 10 years, using a fairly boring 1975 to 1985 market that $300K would have turned into $1.3M ($650K inflation adjusted)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100
Using 1972 to 1992 it would have turned into $2.8M ($831K inflation adjusted)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100
Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?
That a “lost decade” is a decade of lost compounded growth you’ll never get back.
You’ll have lost $2.5M nominal gains from your current $300K holdings if your ideal of 20 lost years happens vs a fairly normal market without mega bubbles. And note that 1972 includes a pretty nasty bear market with a 46% drop coupled with inflation.
Yeah, you better have one hell of a savings rate starting $2.5M in the hole if the S&P 500 is only 4400 in 2042.
You better hope you don’t get what you wished for. Us older folks will likely be okay (a few less european river cruises) but you guys would be screwed.
Last edited by nigel_ht on Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
While true, they do it when discussing the NASDAQ underperformance vs the broader index, ie S&P 500, both of which are very heavy with these stocks.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:01 pmI interpreted that to mean those companies are listed on the NASDAQ exchange as opposed to the NYSE.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:58 pm More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
GUNR +3.55% YTD (I own this)
- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Correct and many NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 stocks are in the S&P 500 and obviously the TOTAL Market so talking about them like they are a separate entity is nonsensical. They should just reference the sectors instead since that is really the variation in the indexes, although that gets a little wonky with Tesla and Amazon being consumer discretionary.nedsaid wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:31 pmNASDAQ is a very significant part of the US Stock Market.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:58 pmI always find it funny that on TV they talk about the NASDAQ Composite (2,500 stocks) when referring to whether it is up or down but discussion of buying and selling centers around the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). I am not even sure there is a mutual fund or ETF for the composite. More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.nedsaid wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:38 pmNASDAQ crossed my mind.FreddieFIRE wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:34 pmI don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sarcasm?flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Keeping all the gains to myself!UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:47 pm This sounds interesting. Why have you been keeping it a secret from us?
jk, I think there was a discussion about that fund before somewhere on this site.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It might drop 50% and come back over the next decade. Or it could drop and come back later this year. No one knows.flyingaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It really seems that we don't understand each other at all.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:31 pmSo $300K in US TSM.ivgrivchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:21 pmThe target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:45 amWhat’s your current portfolio?ivgrivchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am I am hoping for a market crash.
As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.
I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
The longer the better.How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?
In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
In just 10 years, using a fairly boring 1975 to 1985 market that $300K would have turned into $1.3M ($650K inflation adjusted)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100
Using 1972 to 1992 it would have turned into $2.8M ($831K inflation adjusted)
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100
Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?
That a “lost decade” is a decade of lost compounded growth you’ll never get back.
You’ll have lost $2.5M nominal gains from your current $300K holdings if your ideal of 20 lost years happens vs a fairly normal market without mega bubbles. And note that 1972 includes a pretty nasty bear market with a 46% drop coupled with inflation.
Yeah, you better have one hell of a savings rate starting $2.5M in the hole if the S&P 500 is only 4400 in 2042.
You better hope you don’t get what you wished for. Us older folks will likely be okay (a few less european river cruises) but you guys would be screwed.
It is economics 101 that it's best to buy stocks as cheaply as possible during the accumulation phase, and sell them as expensive as possible during the retirement.
The boring stock market periods you mentioned can't repeat at CAPE 35+. It really inhibits the exponential growth.
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP