U.S. stocks in free fall

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:56 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:47 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:44 am
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:48 am This shall pass too
I could make the same comment about kidney stones .......
In the spirit of the current market I broke down and bought a little MGM yesterday.
MGM, sounds fitting. MGM stands for Might as well Gamble some More!

:sharebeer
Only way I could gamble online in my state.
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peppers
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peppers »

Stinky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:44 am
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:48 am This shall pass too
I could make the same comment about kidney stones .......
Good one. 8-)
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

TQQQ down 31.86% YTD
UPRO down 22.04% YTD

The joys of leverage.
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Hofburg43
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hofburg43 »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:00 pm All this talk about wanting a crash to buy "cheap" - what were you doing in March 2020? Buying with both fists or running for the exits? We already had a great sale on stocks at that time but it is hard to buy when everyone is saying the world is ending....
I would like to know too.

In my case, I buy VSTAX regardless of market conditions, although I am certain that probably runs counter to what some book author or pointy head says.

Also, I would like someone or anyone to tell when the market is in the optimal condition, preferably somewhat before it actually gets there.

Also, if someone could tell what the market's proper valuaton is, that would be helpful.
My lifetime requirement for investment advice was satisfied upon reading Jack Bogle write that most people need only a low cost S&P 500 Index fund.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:13 am What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
LOL. How many times are you going to ask that question before you realize there is no one answer?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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FreddieFIRE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by FreddieFIRE »

EnjoyIt wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:13 am
FreddieFIRE wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:37 pm It's the weekend, and VTI is only 9.5% off of its all time high. I'll bet anybody a dollar that the bears wimp out and we never even make it to that frightening "correction" land. :twisted: We've seen this show before.
Market down on Friday, if there is no good news over the weekend, likely market will be down on Monday as well.
Let's circle back on Monday and see how we did! These are always interesting times to follow the forum, as we see the full range of expectations, emotion, etc. :happy

I generally consider the following:
Less than a correction (<10%) = random nothing
Correction (>10%, <20%) = noise
Bear market (>20%) = distraction
Crash (>40%???) = opportunity
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
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FreddieFIRE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by FreddieFIRE »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:09 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:13 am What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
LOL. How many times are you going to ask that question before you realize there is no one answer?
I took it to be rhetorical...
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:48 am This shall pass too
Excellent post.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Candor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Candor »

FreddieFIRE wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:11 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:13 am
FreddieFIRE wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:37 pm It's the weekend, and VTI is only 9.5% off of its all time high. I'll bet anybody a dollar that the bears wimp out and we never even make it to that frightening "correction" land. :twisted: We've seen this show before.
Market down on Friday, if there is no good news over the weekend, likely market will be down on Monday as well.
I generally consider the following:
Less than a correction (<10%) = random nothing
Correction (>10%, <20%) = noise
Bear market (>20%) = distraction
Crash (>40%???) = opportunity
I think that is a solid and succinct way to look at it and people would do well to think along these lines. I might personally switch out >40% for >30% = opportunity because 40% declines are relatively rare and I want more opportunities in life. :D
Last edited by Candor on Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:06 pm TQQQ down 31.86% YTD
UPRO down 22.04% YTD

The joys of leverage.
Sold off my TQQQ last year. Leverage is great when the market is soaring. It sucks when volatility picks up. It's even worse in a down market unless you're taking the other side. There might be an opportunity to leverage again once this market bottoms out.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

I do like to see this thread pop up as it shows that we are not in any state of euphoria in the markets. It appears that we are experiencing a garden variety Stock Market correction, market down 10% or so, and this is perfectly normal behavior. Good to see pessimism on the forum as the pessimists are potential future optimists. The market needs buyers to come in to keep the averages moving in, bull markets end when you run out of buyers. This is not the end of the Bull Market, so far just a correction. If we drop much more, I might even buy into the ARK Funds. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

peskypesky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:59 am I am eagerly awaiting a flurry of updates from posters who have been waiting for a pull back to get into the market or get back into the market with the cash they have been sitting on because the market was too high.

Prediction: There won't be more than a few.
I'll be posting! But I think it's way too early to get back into the market. The Fed hasn't even really done anything yet.
I'll wait for the post of the act; not the post of an intention. :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by FreddieFIRE »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:26 pm It appears that we are experiencing a garden variety Stock Market correction, market down 10% or so, and this is perfectly normal behavior.
I don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
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Candor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Candor »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:30 pm
peskypesky wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:01 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:59 am I am eagerly awaiting a flurry of updates from posters who have been waiting for a pull back to get into the market or get back into the market with the cash they have been sitting on because the market was too high.

Prediction: There won't be more than a few.
I'll be posting! But I think it's way too early to get back into the market. The Fed hasn't even really done anything yet.
I'll wait for the post of the act; not the post of an intention. :wink:
That might make for an interesting thread. The Market Timers Show & Tell Thread. Probably cause an uproar though.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

FreddieFIRE wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:34 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:26 pm It appears that we are experiencing a garden variety Stock Market correction, market down 10% or so, and this is perfectly normal behavior.
I don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
NASDAQ crossed my mind.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:38 pm
FreddieFIRE wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:34 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:26 pm It appears that we are experiencing a garden variety Stock Market correction, market down 10% or so, and this is perfectly normal behavior.
I don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
NASDAQ crossed my mind.
I always find it funny that on TV they talk about the NASDAQ Composite (2,500 stocks) when referring to whether it is up or down but discussion of buying and selling centers around the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). I am not even sure there is a mutual fund or ETF for the composite. More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:58 pm More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.
I interpreted that to mean those companies are listed on the NASDAQ exchange as opposed to the NYSE.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:00 pm All this talk about wanting a crash to buy "cheap" - what were you doing in March 2020? Buying with both fists or running for the exits? We already had a great sale on stocks at that time but it is hard to buy when everyone is saying the world is ending....
I rebalanced bonds to stocks twice, but I didn’t enjoy it.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

I'm just happy with my SCV and Ex-US cushioning the free fall. For once my M1 purchases bought all US funds past couple times. It was weird :mrgreen:
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by sf_tech_saver »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:41 am
sf_tech_saver wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:04 pm I sense some buying opportunities for the next year or two as the interest rate changes shake out.

While you can't time the market you can certainly try to be esp thrifty on your savings rate when the market is under its 200++ day averages to the downside. I plan on tightening the belt as much as possible as long as we are headed mostly down!

Buying consistently and maximally through the corrections is where we really add value to the market as investors. Let's go....
Do you think Fundrise will ride this out in terms of not adjusting any NAV of the real estate down? Assuming it is a short term pullback.

Tony
Tony,

You make a great point and this is why I only have TOY money in Fundrise to observe it -- I don't really trust their NAVs because its not liquid and traded daily in any meaningful way. Every time you login to your account they tease you with some small incremental gain and it feels a little manipulative. I only learned this by exploring it though so no regrets on my experimental $3k!

VT/VTI for life :)

BTW, if VTI takes extra hard hits this year vs. VT I would find it fine to shift more money into the most beat-up of the pair. A little flexibility between VOO/VTI/VT makes Vanguard investing a bit more fun :) As long as I never sell and only wiggle on ongoing purchases it's harmless...

Buying as much beat-up VTI this year as I can...the XVF portion of it has just been hammered! I kinda don't like that the SPAC money is floating around in XVF but....oh well...
VTI is a modern marvel
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Big tech earnings week coming up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail »

US stock indices from their all time highs as of 1/21/22:
DJIA -7%
S&P500 -8.7%
NASDAQ -15%
Russell 2000 -19.1%

VTI -9.5%
ivgrivchuck
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ivgrivchuck »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:45 am
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am I am hoping for a market crash.

As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.

I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
What’s your current portfolio?
The target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.
How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?
The longer the better.

In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.
If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:58 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:38 pm
FreddieFIRE wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:34 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:26 pm It appears that we are experiencing a garden variety Stock Market correction, market down 10% or so, and this is perfectly normal behavior.
I don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
NASDAQ crossed my mind.
I always find it funny that on TV they talk about the NASDAQ Composite (2,500 stocks) when referring to whether it is up or down but discussion of buying and selling centers around the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). I am not even sure there is a mutual fund or ETF for the composite. More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.
NASDAQ is a very significant part of the US Stock Market.
A fool and his money are good for business.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

fanmail wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:20 pm US stock indices from their all time highs as of 1/21/22:
DJIA -7%
S&P500 -8.7%
NASDAQ -15%
Russell 2000 -19.1%

VTI -9.5%
VT -6.42% YTD
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by abuss368 »

sf_tech_saver wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:08 pm
abuss368 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:41 am
sf_tech_saver wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:04 pm I sense some buying opportunities for the next year or two as the interest rate changes shake out.

While you can't time the market you can certainly try to be esp thrifty on your savings rate when the market is under its 200++ day averages to the downside. I plan on tightening the belt as much as possible as long as we are headed mostly down!

Buying consistently and maximally through the corrections is where we really add value to the market as investors. Let's go....
Do you think Fundrise will ride this out in terms of not adjusting any NAV of the real estate down? Assuming it is a short term pullback.

Tony
Tony,

You make a great point and this is why I only have TOY money in Fundrise to observe it -- I don't really trust their NAVs because its not liquid and traded daily in any meaningful way. Every time you login to your account they tease you with some small incremental gain and it feels a little manipulative. I only learned this by exploring it though so no regrets on my experimental $3k!

VT/VTI for life :)

BTW, if VTI takes extra hard hits this year vs. VT I would find it fine to shift more money into the most beat-up of the pair. A little flexibility between VOO/VTI/VT makes Vanguard investing a bit more fun :) As long as I never sell and only wiggle on ongoing purchases it's harmless...

Buying as much beat-up VTI this year as I can...the XVF portion of it has just been hammered! I kinda don't like that the SPAC money is floating around in XVF but....oh well...
Thanks James and that is useful. I read a lot about Fundrise and registered on their website. I certainly did enough due diligence!

Best.
Tony
Last edited by abuss368 on Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flyingaway »

People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Well, we don't know the time frame and it could be a decade but it's a good chance that yes we will see another all time high on all indexes.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silk McCue »

flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
You cast too wide of a net with that comment. That statement is false on its face. Some - certainly, everyone - certainly not, most - not if they have the proper AA and this isn’t their first roller coaster ride.

Cheers
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail »

jason2459 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:46 pm
flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Well, we don't know the time frame and it could be a decade but it's a good chance that yes we will see another all time high on all indexes.
Even if not, many people on here have an investing plan, which includes maintaining their desired asset allocation during market drawdowns. If you can’t sleep well with your current allocation, then you probably are taking on too much risk and should adjust to prevent yourself from making very ill-timed sales near the lows of a market crash.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

jason2459 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:46 pm
flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Well, we don't know the time frame and it could be a decade but it's a good chance that yes we will see another all time high on all indexes.
Warren Buffett always says one thing. “I know one thing about the stock market in the future. It will be higher!”

I always liked that line!
Tony
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flyingaway »

Silk McCue wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:53 pm
flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
You cast too wide of a net with that comment. That statement is false on its face. Some - certainly, everyone - certainly not, most - not if they have the proper AA and this isn’t their first roller coaster ride.

Cheers
If the market keeps going down, so the topics will be: Should we change our SWR to 0.1% (just a joke)?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flyingaway »

fanmail wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:57 pm
jason2459 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:46 pm
flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Well, we don't know the time frame and it could be a decade but it's a good chance that yes we will see another all time high on all indexes.
Even if not, many people on here have an investing plan, which includes maintaining their desired asset allocation during market drawdowns. If you can’t sleep well with your current allocation, then you probably are taking on too much risk and should adjust to prevent yourself from making very ill-timed sales near the lows of a market crash.
Many people's plans include reducing spending in a down market. We have not seen that kinds of discussions yet.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:16 pm If the market keeps going down, so the topics will be: Should we change our SWR to 0.1% (just a joke)?
Didn't one of the FIRE trolls bloggers already suggest that the real SWR is now 0.5% because of Treasury yields?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

drk wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:19 pm
flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:16 pm If the market keeps going down, so the topics will be: Should we change our SWR to 0.1% (just a joke)?
Didn't one of the FIRE trolls bloggers already suggest that the real SWR is now 0.5% because of Treasury yields?
IIRC it was a website selling some insurance product and someone posted a thread here where they absolutely insisted it wasn't insane for multiple pages.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Lol…90% of the time the thread is totally not serious. The other 10% it looks like March 2020 and 2008 and maybe a little 2018.

We can look back to March 2020…but I don’t remember “calm” being the operative word. Lol

Edit: I went hunting, jump back to around page 300. Gallows humor is sorta calm I guess…
EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

In times of market turmoil many of us go through a ton of emotions. It is very possible this will all turn around next week or we might be in for a bumpy ride for years to come. No one knows. Right now, particularly for the newer investors maybe it is time to evaluate your jitters.

Take a look at the link in my signature. The thread was started by Nisiprius back in 2011 and I think it applies very well today.

One thing I do know. If we can buckle in and hold on tight...eventually....some time in the future we will all come out better on the other side.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:21 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:45 am
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am I am hoping for a market crash.

As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.

I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
What’s your current portfolio?
The target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.
How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?
The longer the better.

In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.
If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...
So $300K in US TSM.

In just 10 years, using a fairly boring 1975 to 1985 market that $300K would have turned into $1.3M ($650K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Using 1972 to 1992 it would have turned into $2.8M ($831K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?

That a “lost decade” is a decade of lost compounded growth you’ll never get back.

You’ll have lost $2.5M nominal gains from your current $300K holdings if your ideal of 20 lost years happens vs a fairly normal market without mega bubbles. And note that 1972 includes a pretty nasty bear market with a 46% drop coupled with inflation.

Yeah, you better have one hell of a savings rate starting $2.5M in the hole if the S&P 500 is only 4400 in 2042.

You better hope you don’t get what you wished for. Us older folks will likely be okay (a few less european river cruises) but you guys would be screwed.
Last edited by nigel_ht on Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
newyorker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:09 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:13 am What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
LOL. How many times are you going to ask that question before you realize there is no one answer?
Theres something therapeutic about asking this question. Lol
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:01 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:58 pm More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.
I interpreted that to mean those companies are listed on the NASDAQ exchange as opposed to the NYSE.
While true, they do it when discussing the NASDAQ underperformance vs the broader index, ie S&P 500, both of which are very heavy with these stocks.
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UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

lostdog wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:32 pm
fanmail wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:20 pm US stock indices from their all time highs as of 1/21/22:
DJIA -7%
S&P500 -8.7%
NASDAQ -15%
Russell 2000 -19.1%

VTI -9.5%
VT -6.42% YTD
VTV -2.37% YTD
VXUS -2.33 YTD
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

GUNR +3.55% YTD (I own this)
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:31 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:58 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:38 pm
FreddieFIRE wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:34 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:26 pm It appears that we are experiencing a garden variety Stock Market correction, market down 10% or so, and this is perfectly normal behavior.
I don't think we've even hit -10% yet. Which index are you looking at?
NASDAQ crossed my mind.
I always find it funny that on TV they talk about the NASDAQ Composite (2,500 stocks) when referring to whether it is up or down but discussion of buying and selling centers around the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). I am not even sure there is a mutual fund or ETF for the composite. More amusing is when they talk about Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon as NASDAQ stocks like they aren't in the S&P 500.
NASDAQ is a very significant part of the US Stock Market.
Correct and many NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 stocks are in the S&P 500 and obviously the TOTAL Market so talking about them like they are a separate entity is nonsensical. They should just reference the sectors instead since that is really the variation in the indexes, although that gets a little wonky with Tesla and Amazon being consumer discretionary.
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UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

000 wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:46 pm GUNR +3.55% YTD (I own this)
This sounds interesting. Why have you been keeping it a secret from us?
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
Sarcasm?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:47 pm This sounds interesting. Why have you been keeping it a secret from us?
Keeping all the gains to myself! :mrgreen:

jk, I think there was a discussion about that fund before somewhere on this site.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:34 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:09 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:13 am What is the cause of market dropping anyways?
LOL. How many times are you going to ask that question before you realize there is no one answer?
Theres something therapeutic about asking this question. Lol
:sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

flyingaway wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:41 pm People here are very calm in talking when the market is going down so far, because everyone believes that the market will come back soon.
It might drop 50% and come back over the next decade. Or it could drop and come back later this year. No one knows.
minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc »

lane7068 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:22 am I need some inter-day market halting. Get things real interesting.
I miss the 10% up/down days during the covid panic
ivgrivchuck
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ivgrivchuck »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:31 pm
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:21 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:45 am
ivgrivchuck wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:05 am I am hoping for a market crash.

As an accumulator in my late 30s, that would mean that I could finally buy fairly priced stocks.

I am not hoping for a crash that results in a deep recession. That would benefit nobody...
What’s your current portfolio?
The target is 80%/20% stocks/cash, U.S./non-U.S. 50%/50%. Currently I'm a little bit under target (74% stocks) after hording I-bonds (I couldn't resist the 7% rate when stock prices were sky-high). Portfolio size around $750k.
How long of a “buying opportunity” do you want?
The longer the better.

In the dream scenario, stocks would now go down as much as possible without causing a severe recession (40%?). Then the valuation would stay low for the next ~15-20 years and 5-10 years before my retirement they would raise back to high valuations.
If you are in your late 30s with $500K+ why do you want 10 years of 0% real growth? So the $300K or so you invest over the next decade is “discounted”?
Obviously I hope that the earnings will keep growing, but stock prices on the market to stay low...
So $300K in US TSM.

In just 10 years, using a fairly boring 1975 to 1985 market that $300K would have turned into $1.3M ($650K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Using 1972 to 1992 it would have turned into $2.8M ($831K inflation adjusted)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100

Do you guys NOT get that the reason folks say “time in market and not market timing” is because of the power of compounding?

That a “lost decade” is a decade of lost compounded growth you’ll never get back.

You’ll have lost $2.5M nominal gains from your current $300K holdings if your ideal of 20 lost years happens vs a fairly normal market without mega bubbles. And note that 1972 includes a pretty nasty bear market with a 46% drop coupled with inflation.

Yeah, you better have one hell of a savings rate starting $2.5M in the hole if the S&P 500 is only 4400 in 2042.

You better hope you don’t get what you wished for. Us older folks will likely be okay (a few less european river cruises) but you guys would be screwed.
It really seems that we don't understand each other at all.

It is economics 101 that it's best to buy stocks as cheaply as possible during the accumulation phase, and sell them as expensive as possible during the retirement.

The boring stock market periods you mentioned can't repeat at CAPE 35+. It really inhibits the exponential growth.
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