GP813 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:04 pm
Some index losses were halved from today's lows going into the close, a lot of dip buyers in the last half hour. I like holding mutual funds for this very reason. I only make decisions on buying more at the end of the day besides my regular automatic contributions.
Seems like the downside of mutual funds. Would have been better off with ETFs today.
Upside for me because if I'm going to do something outside of my plan I'll do it on the close of day and usually wait after a couple of days or even weeks to assess. I didn't buy anything today. The mutual funds I hold all re-invest dividends in the next few weeks, also have auto contributions at the start of the month so for now I'm good.
My stocks want/add list didn't come close to anything buyable either in my fun account in terms of bargains.
We need to rename these threads (freefall, to the moon), "Closet market timers discussion" with all these rebalance trigger and dry powder discussions. Didnt even look today.
$500 was sitting around in settlement fund from dividends so that's 14 or so shares of VTIAX to buy on the dip. My IP says end of the month but might as well drop it in today.
carminered2019 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm
I got 15 years of living expenses ready to deploy.
Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
-10% from the markets was 9 months ago in January.
I don't remember any -10% from all time high in January 2021 but I did go all in on March low 2020 then cashed out 20x late November 2021.
November 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3500.. Getting out then was a bad move. You're not as good at timing the market as you think you are. Buying in at 4100 (a 10% correction from the highs) with your 15 years of expenses doesn't look that smart.
You already missed out on more than 10% of gains, so waiting for a 10% drop means you have less money trying to time the market.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:22 pm
November 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3500.. Getting out then was a bad move. You're not as good at timing the market as you think you are. Buying in at 4100 (a 10% correction from the highs) with your 15 years of expenses doesn't look that smart.
You already missed out on more than 10% of gains, so waiting for a 10% drop means you have less money trying to time the market.
The poster said "my AA is 70/30 to 90/5." So...if they went 95/5 in March 2020, they had to unwind it at some point. November seems fine to me.
If they didn't unwind, their AA remains at 95/5 and there's no cash to deploy right now.
Last edited by Marseille07 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
-10% from the markets was 9 months ago in January.
I don't remember any -10% from all time high in January 2021 but I did go all in on March low 2020 then cashed out 20x late November 2021.
November 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3500.. Getting out then was a bad move. You're not as good at timing the market as you think you are. Buying in at 4100 (a 10% correction from the highs) with your 15 years of expenses doesn't look that smart.
You already missed out on more than 10% of gains, so waiting for a 10% drop means you have less money trying to time the market.
+1
Maybe this forum needs a psychology thread
At the end of the day and for the average smuck like me, investing boils down to people who: (1) think they can devine the future; and (2) know they can’t. The future is unknown. I learned that lesson from reading Richard Feynman books and watching videos of his lectures decades ago.
000 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:48 pm
You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
Crises don't start off screaming from the get go. We had the cases reported early Jan, the markets didn't panic then.
000 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:48 pm
You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
Crises don't start off screaming from the get go. We had the cases reported early Jan, the markets didn't panic then.
But as soon as the panic started it was red for days.
000 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:48 pm
You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
000 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:48 pm
You're both absolutely correct. However this is not like March 2020 coronacrash where red days where followed by red futures.
Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
-10% from the markets was 9 months ago in January.
I don't remember any -10% from all time high in January 2021 but I did go all in on March low 2020 then cashed out 20x late November 2021.
November 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3500.. Getting out then was a bad move. You're not as good at timing the market as you think you are. Buying in at 4100 (a 10% correction from the highs) with your 15 years of expenses doesn't look that smart.
You already missed out on more than 10% of gains, so waiting for a 10% drop means you have less money trying to time the market.
isn't rebalance a form of market timing ? I just over do it
Tom_T wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:27 amIsn't there also the concept of a RGD?
You would have to start that concept and promote it.
Oh, I thought for some reason that you also had a strategy for days when the market is way up (like 800 points.) Or do you just look for buying opportunities on RBDs?
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:22 pm
The FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser tomorrow. The t-word is sure to be discussed and can move the markets.
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:22 pm
The FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser tomorrow. The t-word is sure to be discussed and can move the markets.
Tax lost harvesting time?
I don't think so. QQQ all green and I don't plan to sell VOO.
tomorrow is going to be interesting... if Powell mentions the taper is it going to be a repeat of Dec 2018 when he tried it and the market promptly crashed 20%?
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:22 pm
The FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser tomorrow. The t-word is sure to be discussed and can move the markets.
Tax lost harvesting time?
I don't think so. QQQ all green and I don't plan to sell VOO.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:29 pm
tomorrow is going to be interesting... if Powell mentions the taper is it going to be a repeat of Dec 2018 when he tried it and the market promptly crashed 20%?
It's impossible to predict. Since we expect Powell to absolutely tank the markets, they'll probably shoot up once he speaks.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:29 pm
tomorrow is going to be interesting... if Powell mentions the taper is it going to be a repeat of Dec 2018 when he tried it and the market promptly crashed 20%?
It's impossible to predict. Since we expect Powell to absolutely tank the markets, they'll probably shoot up once he speaks.