U.S. stocks in free fall

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

mikejuss wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:16 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
I would think that there would have to be one heck of a dip before a thread like that would be triggered.
No, the exact opposite... That is what is funny.

Last week and last month, with the market at all time highs, we have had threads about taking on debt to invest.

When the market is crashing, we won't see those threads, even though that should be a better time for such a strategy.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Duplicate
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Horton
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Today is a RBD

Post by Horton »

[Merged here -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

In honor of livesoft, I’m selling some BND and buying some VXUS. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

I got 15 years of living expenses ready to deploy.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm I got 15 years of living expenses ready to deploy.
Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
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namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by namajones »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:27 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm I got 15 years of living expenses ready to deploy.
Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
Home equity? :shock:
BogleHead1008
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleHead1008 »

A day like today, bonds will ease the pain... at least 80/20 vs 100/0 helps with red numbers today
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:27 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm I got 15 years of living expenses ready to deploy.
Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
Last edited by carminered2019 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mikejuss »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:25 pm
mikejuss wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:16 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
I would think that there would have to be one heck of a dip before a thread like that would be triggered.
No, the exact opposite... That is what is funny.

Last week and last month, with the market at all time highs, we have had threads about taking on debt to invest.

When the market is crashing, we won't see those threads, even though that should be a better time for such a strategy.
In other words, people are greedy when they should be fearful, and vice versa. :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

I think I'll be allowed to purchase a more expensive car after today's turmoil.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheLaughingCow »

bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

drk wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:32 pm I think I'll be allowed to purchase a more expensive car after today's turmoil.
how so?
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by FoolStreet »

S&P500 is down 2.5%. Is that enough to trigger rebalance bands?

Let’s review rebalance trigger bands. Is it interday % drop? Or % drop relative between asset classes in your port? What %?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
In the long term perspective, all stocks are worth zero, and everyone is dead.
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by yog »

Here's the math for those who want to play at home:
RBD Alerts
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:31 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:27 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm I got 15 years of living expenses ready to deploy.
Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
-10% from the markets was 9 months ago in January.
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by Hyperchicken »

Rock Bottom Day?
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by climber2020 »

It's no longer a RBD as of 3:42 PM.
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by Horton »

Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:42 pm Rock Bottom Day?
Really Bad Day
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456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

Looks like the dip buyers are here
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

pasadena wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:09 pm I invested a rather large (for me) sum last Wednesday, which was the only up day since we reached ATH on 09/02. So now I'm just going to go to my bedroom and pout.
Last Monday (9/13) was also an up day. And Wednesday was more than a 1% discount to the ATH. Congrats!
anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
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tomsense76
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by tomsense76 »

climber2020 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:42 pm It's no longer a RBD as of 3:42 PM.
The boglehead bump? :wink:
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
drk wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:32 pm I think I'll be allowed to purchase a more expensive car after today's turmoil.
how so?
Because of livesoft's ridiculous and dumb "rule" that you can only buy a car equal to one day's movement in the stock market.

Biggest one-day movement all year, so he can now buy a more expensive car.

Silly inside joke. :)
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by Horton »

climber2020 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:42 pm It's no longer a RBD as of 3:42 PM.
Close enough :D
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by climber2020 »

tomsense76 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:44 pm
climber2020 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:42 pm It's no longer a RBD as of 3:42 PM.
The boglehead bump? :wink:
I was wondering that too, but I would have waited until 3:55 PM to make the transaction.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:37 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm
bugleheadd wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm Fact: we will reach ATH again
Not necessarily
Since the prediction has no timeline, it is guaranteed to be true.
Yeah nothing is guaranteed... Overthrow the government, and the stock market goes to zero (look at Russia's stock market in 1917 - Communists took over, it went to zero).

But probably 99.5% chance that statement is true.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Grogs »

PaloRojo wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:23 pm
PicassoSparks wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm
RetireBy55 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:54 pm Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.

Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
I never understand analysis like this. Like, every single transaction has a buyer and a seller. How do you know when to emphasize the seller, not the buyer?
I don’t know why people get tripped up on this “every transaction has a buyer and a seller” bit when it comes to stocks. Let’s assume:

1) You live in a very desirable real estate market.

2) 10 people want to buy a house. Only 2 people want to sell a house.

3) 2 transactions occur, with prices determined via a bidding war.

4) RE prices continue to rise to a point that 5 of the original 10 buyers no longer want to buy, and an additional 3 owners decide they now want to sell. 3 more transactions occur.

5) In total, 5 transactions occurred, and every transaction (obviously) had a buyer and a seller. However, that does nothing to explain that prices initially rose because there were more people who wanted to buy than there were homes available to buy.

Stocks are no different, except it’s even more tangible in the sense that there are actually order books which update in real time each and every day. Prices rise when demand for stocks outweigh supply until such time as equilibrium is met, just like in any other market.
Well said. I think we all know that the number of actual buyers and sellers must be equal.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm how so?
The rule (probably livesoft's) that the most you should spend on a car is the largest single-day variance in your portfolio. Definitely not the biggest move percentage-wise, but I have quite a bit more invested than I did going into last year's meltdown.
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:44 pm Because of livesoft's ridiculous and dumb "rule" that you can only buy a car equal to one day's movement in the stock market.
Thanks for confirming. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Iridium »

jason2459 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:26 pm Seems like a good buying opportunity to me. If Evergrand fails there will be even better opportunities it seems.
What would be the mechanism that triggers a big sell off if Evergrand fails? Even if Chinese consumers pull back, would that be enough? I don't think most companies have much exposure to Chinese real estate, so the contagion would seem to be mostly limited to China.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:41 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:31 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:27 pm
carminered2019 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:26 pm I got 15 years of living expenses ready to deploy.
Then where are your living expenses going to come from?
Won the game and kept 20x of living expenses in cash and bonds. my AA is 70/30 to 90/5, first trigger is -10% from the markets.
-10% from the markets was 9 months ago in January.
I don't remember any -10% from all time high in January 2021 but I did go all in on March low 2020 then cashed out 20x late November 2021.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Gufomel »

The dip buyers just had to go and ruin it yet again!
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by sapphire96 »

A really bad day(s) reminds me of 1987, 2008/09, and 2020; a 2% drop is nothing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen »

Gufomel wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:58 pm The dip buyers just had to go and ruin it yet again!
Looks like the only major RBD I see at closing is for VWO at -2.67%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch »

Just a mediocrely bad day.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mikejuss »

Grogs wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:47 pm
PaloRojo wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:23 pm
PicassoSparks wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm
RetireBy55 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:54 pm Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.

Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
I never understand analysis like this. Like, every single transaction has a buyer and a seller. How do you know when to emphasize the seller, not the buyer?
I don’t know why people get tripped up on this “every transaction has a buyer and a seller” bit when it comes to stocks. Let’s assume:

1) You live in a very desirable real estate market.

2) 10 people want to buy a house. Only 2 people want to sell a house.

3) 2 transactions occur, with prices determined via a bidding war.

4) RE prices continue to rise to a point that 5 of the original 10 buyers no longer want to buy, and an additional 3 owners decide they now want to sell. 3 more transactions occur.

5) In total, 5 transactions occurred, and every transaction (obviously) had a buyer and a seller. However, that does nothing to explain that prices initially rose because there were more people who wanted to buy than there were homes available to buy.

Stocks are no different, except it’s even more tangible in the sense that there are actually order books which update in real time each and every day. Prices rise when demand for stocks outweigh supply until such time as equilibrium is met, just like in any other market.
Well said. I think we all know that the number of actual buyers and sellers must be equal.
But isn't the reason that the market rises and falls that there isn't always an equal number of buyers and sellers?
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Hyperchicken
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

Well, it wasn't that bad, was it.

And my LTTs liked it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:25 pm Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
Market closed at -1.7%... perhaps an RBD for ETF traders, but not for mutual fund buy-and-holders. Cheers!
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BluesH
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by BluesH »

FoolStreet wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:36 pm S&P500 is down 2.5%. Is that enough to trigger rebalance bands?
Depends. Before today, I was 2.2% above target. It looks like today will just bring me almost back to target.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GP813 »

Some index losses were halved from today's lows going into the close, a lot of dip buyers in the last half hour. I like holding mutual funds for this very reason. I only make decisions on buying more at the end of the day besides my regular automatic contributions.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RetireBy55 »

PicassoSparks wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm
RetireBy55 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:54 pm Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.

Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
I never understand analysis like this. Like, every single transaction has a buyer and a seller. How do you know when to emphasize the seller, not the buyer?
That's right - but when things directionally accelerate rapidly to the downside, there's more of an overall desire to sell than to buy. Of course there is a buyer for every seller..but the rate (and intensity) of a drop can reasonably be interpreted to be that there is more sell side pressure than desire to buy, or prices would be increasing - just like in any free market scenario. The converse is also true..
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by Sandtrap »

2.5% is like one speed bump in the shopping mall parking lot, or Costco.

Caused by;
"panic news" or commentary by anyone in the media IE: coming toilet paper shortage. . .
or
anything else.. . .

The 36% drop in March 2020 was a genuine RBD.

Read: forum wiki: "investing behavior pitfalls". (reacting).
j :D
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

mikejuss wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:00 pm But isn't the reason that the market rises and falls that there isn't always an equal number of buyers and sellers?
Depends on how you count them. Recently, I bought an ETF via a market order. While I was filling out the form, and before I pushed the buy button, would I be counted as a buyer?
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gonefishing01
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gonefishing01 »

Got some TLH, finally. I’ve been waiting since March.
And what do you know- nice little rise from the depths into close. Game on, tomorrow!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Raraculus »

Finally, a RBD in 2021! Bought the dip. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

Iridium wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:49 pm
jason2459 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:26 pm Seems like a good buying opportunity to me. If Evergrand fails there will be even better opportunities it seems.
What would be the mechanism that triggers a big sell off if Evergrand fails? Even if Chinese consumers pull back, would that be enough? I don't think most companies have much exposure to Chinese real estate, so the contagion would seem to be mostly limited to China.
Temporary, or should I say transitory, sell off through momentum to the down side. I didn't say anything about being rational. Can't expect that in the short term and for some people they don't believe in that for the long term. Or did I say this is anything other then pure speculation. Seems like....
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by Third Son »

Um....... No
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Re: Today is a RBD

Post by an_asker »

Sandtrap wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:06 pm [...]
The 36% drop in March 2020 was a genuine RBD.
[...]
j :D
You mean RBM!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Not much of a RBD near the end. Let's see what tomorrow holds... My semi-annual bonus will be on Friday so that's probably ATH again :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Horton »

GP813 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:04 pm Some index losses were halved from today's lows going into the close, a lot of dip buyers in the last half hour. I like holding mutual funds for this very reason. I only make decisions on buying more at the end of the day besides my regular automatic contributions.
Seems like the downside of mutual funds. Would have been better off with ETFs today.
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