U.S. stocks in free fall

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456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

SPY was 0.06% away from a 2.5% drop, which woulda triggered an RBD alert.
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WingsFan4Life
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WingsFan4Life »

Drolen wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:05 pm
Visitor76 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:36 pm
jarjarM wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:30 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:17 pm This month has just been a long, boring decline
It is september so...
Exactly, and it's right on time... just wait till October gets here. All I can say is DCA over the next two months.

Ahhh. But Do I DCA a bit every day or wait?? I just can't bear the suspense of how much to buy, and when....
My signal to buy last year was when the circuit breaker was tripped. It felt like that happened many times in March 2020 🙂
lazynovice
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazynovice »

Just tax loss harvested out of VEU (international) for anything I bought in 2021. US lots still looking green for me.
deepvalleys
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by deepvalleys »

Finally we're getting a correction.

What do you think, how far down are we going?
I'm guessing SP500 at 4200 in the near term. Could we also see 3600 this autumn?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

deepvalleys wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:54 pm Finally we're getting a correction.

What do you think, how far down are we going?
I'm guessing SP500 at 4200 in the near term. Could we also see 3600 this autumn?
Maybe.
Maybe not.
Or the other way around.
Tom_T
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tom_T »

deepvalleys wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:54 pm Finally we're getting a correction.

What do you think, how far down are we going?
I'm guessing SP500 at 4200 in the near term. Could we also see 3600 this autumn?
I predict we will be back up tomorrow. Your guess is as good as mine!
latesaver
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by latesaver »

456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:40 pm SPY was 0.06% away from a 2.5% drop, which woulda triggered an RBD alert.
How do you calculate an official RBD? I thought for some reason there were/are a lot of other factors other than one-day price movement.
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

latesaver wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:59 pm
456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:40 pm SPY was 0.06% away from a 2.5% drop, which woulda triggered an RBD alert.
How do you calculate an official RBD? I thought for some reason there were/are a lot of other factors other than one-day price movement.
I'm going by livesoft's own criteria here

A 2.5% drop in one day (plus a couple other rules which occurred today) would constitute a RBD. SPY dropped 2.44% today, which almost hit the threshold.
59Gibson
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 59Gibson »

Maybe market is noticing nearly $29Trillion natl debt and inflation revving up.
Gufomel
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Gufomel »

whereskyle wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:47 am Happy to see extended duration treasuries showing that negative correlation I bought them for.
Agree that it’s nice that it still works as intended. At the same time, I guess for the next crisis we have to hope for the 30 year to fall to 0% in order to do its job in the portfolio? Yay?
squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

59Gibson wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:10 pm Maybe market is noticing nearly $29Trillion natl debt and inflation revving up.
They say if inflation revs up, that's good because then they pay back the debt with inflated dollars. But then they say if inflation is low to zero, they can borrow at zero or so and barely pay in service costs. I say, the debt doesn't matter. When was the last time equities had an issue regarding national debt. I don't recall any.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:18 am
runninginvestor wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:04 am
namajones wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:23 am Well, no one who with a position in equities should be surprised by this. The market has doubled in 5 years on the backs of the Fed and TINA.
Doubling in 5 years is very good performance, but it only represents a CAGR of 14.9%. The long term historic CAGR is in the 10-11% range, so we are not looking at a huge deviation.
That's a 40-50% increase over the average return.
The 9%-10% average return INCLUDES all the crashes and the decade long low return years.

Doubling in 4-5 years (or even less) happens ALL THE TIME, all the way back to the 1890s... It's absolutely normal.

The average return of 9%-10% exists BECAUSE of all the occasional 15% years matched up with the occasional -20% or -30% crash years.
Does that mean you're anticipating the latter due to the former having happened already? You seem to be saying that what's "absolutely normal" is for that matching to actually materialize.

Regarding the numbers, note that the 5-year annualized return of the S&P 500 ending 8/31 was 18% (source). CAGR is said to assume "that any value earned or revenue -- through interest or dividends in the case of financial securities -- has been reinvested and compounded into the investment" (source).
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Mullins
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Mullins »

VTSAX pays dividends this Friday. I'm set on reinvesting dividends, so, looks like good timing to me.
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456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
occambogle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by occambogle »

nigel_ht wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:24 am I think the lesson of 2020 is that it can't REALLY REALLY be a RBD anymore without tripping a circuit breaker...
I remember those days vividly. I started investing for the very first time in my life in Jan 2020. I had to look up what a circuit breaker was to understand why my broker app was flashing all kinds of warnings. Scary days…
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jason2459
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

Seems like a good buying opportunity to me. If Evergrand fails there will be even better opportunities it seems.
Last edited by jason2459 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch »

Probably qualifies as a Really Bad Day, but doesn’t seem very bad considering that it’s been a while since we’ve had a day with a big drop.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

59Gibson wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:10 pm Maybe market is noticing nearly $29Trillion natl debt and inflation revving up.
These two things are opposites.

$29 Trillion debt could be considered an issue, but if inflation heats up, then the $29 Trillion debt becomes less of an issue.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:18 am
runninginvestor wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:04 am
namajones wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:23 am Well, no one who with a position in equities should be surprised by this. The market has doubled in 5 years on the backs of the Fed and TINA.
Doubling in 5 years is very good performance, but it only represents a CAGR of 14.9%. The long term historic CAGR is in the 10-11% range, so we are not looking at a huge deviation.
That's a 40-50% increase over the average return.
The 9%-10% average return INCLUDES all the crashes and the decade long low return years.

Doubling in 4-5 years (or even less) happens ALL THE TIME, all the way back to the 1890s... It's absolutely normal.

The average return of 9%-10% exists BECAUSE of all the occasional 15% years matched up with the occasional -20% or -30% crash years.
Does that mean you're anticipating the latter due to the former having happened already? You seem to be saying that what's "absolutely normal" is for that matching to actually materialize.
No, I am not anticipating anything.
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Tom_T
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tom_T »

59Gibson wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:10 pm Maybe market is noticing nearly $29Trillion natl debt and inflation revving up.
So you're saying the market didn't notice any of these things before?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

jason2459 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:26 pm Seems like a good buying opportunity to me. If Evergrand fails there will be even better opportunities it seems.
It's hard to say. On the one hand, selling US equities on Evergrande is silly and this presents us a buying opportunity. OTOH, SPX was overvalued for quite some time, so this might be the "reset" button as far as valuations go.
Last edited by Marseille07 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:33 pm
HanSolo wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:18 am
runninginvestor wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:04 am

Doubling in 5 years is very good performance, but it only represents a CAGR of 14.9%. The long term historic CAGR is in the 10-11% range, so we are not looking at a huge deviation.
That's a 40-50% increase over the average return.
The 9%-10% average return INCLUDES all the crashes and the decade long low return years.

Doubling in 4-5 years (or even less) happens ALL THE TIME, all the way back to the 1890s... It's absolutely normal.

The average return of 9%-10% exists BECAUSE of all the occasional 15% years matched up with the occasional -20% or -30% crash years.
Does that mean you're anticipating the latter due to the former having happened already? You seem to be saying that what's "absolutely normal" is for that matching to actually materialize.
No, I am not anticipating anything.
OK, well then it looks like everyone quoted above is actually in agreement (except for my update on the numbers), in that (a) it's been observed that there's been a strong run-up, (b) it's been observed that strong run-ups tend to be accompanied by crashes, and (c) nobody quoted above is claiming to make a prediction.

I'd say that a day when Bogleheads all agree on anything is a Really Good Day!
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59Gibson
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 59Gibson »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:32 pm
59Gibson wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:10 pm Maybe market is noticing nearly $29Trillion natl debt and inflation revving up.
These two things are opposites.

$29 Trillion debt could be considered an issue, but if inflation heats up, then the $29 Trillion debt becomes less of an issue.
That would be logical in normal times..who knows anymore?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mikejuss »

456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:25 pm Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
For those of us with cash on hand, let's take today as a buying opportunity, folks.
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59Gibson
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 59Gibson »

Tom_T wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:35 pm
59Gibson wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:10 pm Maybe market is noticing nearly $29Trillion natl debt and inflation revving up.
So you're saying the market didn't notice any of these things before?
I don't know? Maybe that's the magic # threshold
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Duplicate.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Vtsax100 »

mikejuss wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:44 pm
456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:25 pm Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
For those of us with cash on hand, let's take today as a buying opportunity, folks.

I had a little extra cash so I dipped my toes into some more VTSAX today. If the slide continues tomorrow I will throw some more cash in. Yes I have committed the mortal sin of letting my cash go above my regular AA over the last couple months.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch »

mikejuss wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:44 pm
456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:25 pm Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
For those of us with cash on hand, let's take today as a buying opportunity, folks.
Deposited large sum on Friday and will invest it today. Of course I’m wondering whether I should put in part today and part tomorrow….
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jakehefty17 »

456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:25 pm Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
I also took note of this... unfortunately have been sitting on some spare cash far longer than I should have. Invested about 80% of a lump sum over the course of a few weeks before the election. Shoulda bought the remaining 20% sooner but hindsight is 20/20... at least I'm sticking to the plan and buying this amount on the official RBD.

I mostly just track this because I find it interesting. I probably won't try this strategy again, and just lump sum the money when I'm ready to buy... based on this first attempt.
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RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RetireBy55 »

Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.

Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.

Hmmmm...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Johnny Thinwallet »

This is a small part of our overall portfolio, but our HSA is in the middle of switching custodians. The HSA investments were liquidated at Tuesday's close last week with S&P 500 closing at 4,480.70 and those dollars have been in cash since then. Good timing so far to sell high and lock in those games, though admittedly it's just by sheer luck and nothing else.

The blackout period is currently ongoing and will not be lifted until next week. Who knows where we'll be in another week when I'll be able to reinvest those dollars, but right now I'm just sitting here happy that they liquidated the investments last week instead of this week for the switchover.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bugleheadd »

Fact: we will reach ATH again
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by PicassoSparks »

RetireBy55 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:54 pm Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.

Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
I never understand analysis like this. Like, every single transaction has a buyer and a seller. How do you know when to emphasize the seller, not the buyer?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tenkuky »

GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:50 pm
mikejuss wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:44 pm
456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:25 pm Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
For those of us with cash on hand, let's take today as a buying opportunity, folks.
Deposited large sum on Friday and will invest it today. Of course I’m wondering whether I should put in part today and part tomorrow….
You market timers made me look :annoyed
Now, I am transferring money from my Ally to my brokerage to partake in the buy fest. Wait for meeeee!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bogledogle »

The real question is if I should TLH the ~$400 loss from the lot I bought this week. Hmmm....
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Californiastate »

I haven't funded my Roth this year besides conversions. I'm waiting for more blood in the water.
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

tenkuky wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:58 pm
GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:50 pm
mikejuss wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:44 pm
456M wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:25 pm Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
For those of us with cash on hand, let's take today as a buying opportunity, folks.
Deposited large sum on Friday and will invest it today. Of course I’m wondering whether I should put in part today and part tomorrow….
You market timers made me look :annoyed
Now, I am transferring money from my Ally to my brokerage to partake in the buy fest. Wait for meeeee!
I got paid today but the money hasn't been transferred to my account yet. I hope the red becomes even redder! :twisted:
harikaried
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by harikaried »

bogledogle wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:59 pmThe real question is if I should TLH the ~$400 loss from the lot I bought this week
Looks like new lots of Total US / VTI since the end of June are likely to have losses to harvest. We realized more than $1k today. Maybe too early? :confused
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

I invested a rather large (for me) sum last Wednesday, which was the only up day since we reached ATH on 09/02. So now I'm just going to go to my bedroom and pout.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

Deleted
Last edited by fatcoffeedrinker on Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
livelifealittle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livelifealittle »

harikaried wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:09 pm Looks like new lots of Total US / VTI since the end of June are likely to have losses to harvest. We realized more than $1k today. Maybe too early? :confused
If you TLH now, what will you do with the funds?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
harikaried
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by harikaried »

livelifealittle wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:11 pmIf you TLH now, what will you do with the funds?
Already spent it! :D (As well as extra cash and some bonds to buy Total-ish US.)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mikejuss »

Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
I would think that there would have to be one heck of a dip before a thread like that would be triggered.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
But it's the right time to buy VTSAX!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

mikejuss wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:16 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
I would think that there would have to be one heck of a dip before a thread like that would be triggered.
pasadena wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:17 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
But it's the right time to buy VTSAX!
That would be more logical. But, the funny thing is, threads of that kind are more often seen around the top than around the bottom.
Aaand...it'sgone
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

I just came into some money (court case settlement), so maybe this correction will be fortuitous for me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bogledogle »

harikaried wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:09 pm
bogledogle wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:59 pmThe real question is if I should TLH the ~$400 loss from the lot I bought this week
Looks like new lots of Total US / VTI since the end of June are likely to have losses to harvest. We realized more than $1k today. Maybe too early? :confused
Yeah.. gonna give it a day or two.
Last edited by bogledogle on Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

Eyeing the emergency fund a bit, a really bad week of -10% would be very tempting to nibble.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by PaloRojo »

PicassoSparks wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pm
RetireBy55 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:54 pm Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.

Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
I never understand analysis like this. Like, every single transaction has a buyer and a seller. How do you know when to emphasize the seller, not the buyer?
I don’t know why people get tripped up on this “every transaction has a buyer and a seller” bit when it comes to stocks. Let’s assume:

1) You live in a very desirable real estate market.

2) 10 people want to buy a house. Only 2 people want to sell a house.

3) 2 transactions occur, with prices determined via a bidding war.

4) RE prices continue to rise to a point that 5 of the original 10 buyers no longer want to buy, and an additional 3 owners decide they now want to sell. 3 more transactions occur.

5) In total, 5 transactions occurred, and every transaction (obviously) had a buyer and a seller. However, that does nothing to explain that prices initially rose because there were more people who wanted to buy than there were homes available to buy.

Stocks are no different, except it’s even more tangible in the sense that there are actually order books which update in real time each and every day. Prices rise when demand for stocks outweigh supply until such time as equilibrium is met, just like in any other market.
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