U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
SPY was 0.06% away from a 2.5% drop, which woulda triggered an RBD alert.
- WingsFan4Life
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My signal to buy last year was when the circuit breaker was tripped. It felt like that happened many times in March 2020Drolen wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:05 pm
Ahhh. But Do I DCA a bit every day or wait?? I just can't bear the suspense of how much to buy, and when....
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Just tax loss harvested out of VEU (international) for anything I bought in 2021. US lots still looking green for me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Finally we're getting a correction.
What do you think, how far down are we going?
I'm guessing SP500 at 4200 in the near term. Could we also see 3600 this autumn?
What do you think, how far down are we going?
I'm guessing SP500 at 4200 in the near term. Could we also see 3600 this autumn?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Maybe.deepvalleys wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:54 pm Finally we're getting a correction.
What do you think, how far down are we going?
I'm guessing SP500 at 4200 in the near term. Could we also see 3600 this autumn?
Maybe not.
Or the other way around.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I predict we will be back up tomorrow. Your guess is as good as mine!deepvalleys wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:54 pm Finally we're getting a correction.
What do you think, how far down are we going?
I'm guessing SP500 at 4200 in the near term. Could we also see 3600 this autumn?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm going by livesoft's own criteria here
A 2.5% drop in one day (plus a couple other rules which occurred today) would constitute a RBD. SPY dropped 2.44% today, which almost hit the threshold.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Maybe market is noticing nearly $29Trillion natl debt and inflation revving up.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Agree that it’s nice that it still works as intended. At the same time, I guess for the next crisis we have to hope for the 30 year to fall to 0% in order to do its job in the portfolio? Yay?whereskyle wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:47 am Happy to see extended duration treasuries showing that negative correlation I bought them for.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
They say if inflation revs up, that's good because then they pay back the debt with inflated dollars. But then they say if inflation is low to zero, they can borrow at zero or so and barely pay in service costs. I say, the debt doesn't matter. When was the last time equities had an issue regarding national debt. I don't recall any.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Does that mean you're anticipating the latter due to the former having happened already? You seem to be saying that what's "absolutely normal" is for that matching to actually materialize.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:18 amThe 9%-10% average return INCLUDES all the crashes and the decade long low return years.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return.
Doubling in 4-5 years (or even less) happens ALL THE TIME, all the way back to the 1890s... It's absolutely normal.
The average return of 9%-10% exists BECAUSE of all the occasional 15% years matched up with the occasional -20% or -30% crash years.
Regarding the numbers, note that the 5-year annualized return of the S&P 500 ending 8/31 was 18% (source). CAGR is said to assume "that any value earned or revenue -- through interest or dividends in the case of financial securities -- has been reinvested and compounded into the investment" (source).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
VTSAX pays dividends this Friday. I'm set on reinvesting dividends, so, looks like good timing to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Today is the first official RBD day of 2021.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I remember those days vividly. I started investing for the very first time in my life in Jan 2020. I had to look up what a circuit breaker was to understand why my broker app was flashing all kinds of warnings. Scary days…
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Seems like a good buying opportunity to me. If Evergrand fails there will be even better opportunities it seems.
Last edited by jason2459 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Probably qualifies as a Really Bad Day, but doesn’t seem very bad considering that it’s been a while since we’ve had a day with a big drop.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
These two things are opposites.
$29 Trillion debt could be considered an issue, but if inflation heats up, then the $29 Trillion debt becomes less of an issue.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No, I am not anticipating anything.HanSolo wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pmDoes that mean you're anticipating the latter due to the former having happened already? You seem to be saying that what's "absolutely normal" is for that matching to actually materialize.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:18 amThe 9%-10% average return INCLUDES all the crashes and the decade long low return years.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return.
Doubling in 4-5 years (or even less) happens ALL THE TIME, all the way back to the 1890s... It's absolutely normal.
The average return of 9%-10% exists BECAUSE of all the occasional 15% years matched up with the occasional -20% or -30% crash years.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's hard to say. On the one hand, selling US equities on Evergrande is silly and this presents us a buying opportunity. OTOH, SPX was overvalued for quite some time, so this might be the "reset" button as far as valuations go.
Last edited by Marseille07 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
OK, well then it looks like everyone quoted above is actually in agreement (except for my update on the numbers), in that (a) it's been observed that there's been a strong run-up, (b) it's been observed that strong run-ups tend to be accompanied by crashes, and (c) nobody quoted above is claiming to make a prediction.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:33 pmNo, I am not anticipating anything.HanSolo wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pmDoes that mean you're anticipating the latter due to the former having happened already? You seem to be saying that what's "absolutely normal" is for that matching to actually materialize.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:18 amThe 9%-10% average return INCLUDES all the crashes and the decade long low return years.
Doubling in 4-5 years (or even less) happens ALL THE TIME, all the way back to the 1890s... It's absolutely normal.
The average return of 9%-10% exists BECAUSE of all the occasional 15% years matched up with the occasional -20% or -30% crash years.
I'd say that a day when Bogleheads all agree on anything is a Really Good Day!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
For those of us with cash on hand, let's take today as a buying opportunity, folks.
50% VTSAX | 25% VTIAX | 25% VBTLX (retirement), 25% VTEAX (taxable)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Duplicate.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I had a little extra cash so I dipped my toes into some more VTSAX today. If the slide continues tomorrow I will throw some more cash in. Yes I have committed the mortal sin of letting my cash go above my regular AA over the last couple months.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Deposited large sum on Friday and will invest it today. Of course I’m wondering whether I should put in part today and part tomorrow….
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I also took note of this... unfortunately have been sitting on some spare cash far longer than I should have. Invested about 80% of a lump sum over the course of a few weeks before the election. Shoulda bought the remaining 20% sooner but hindsight is 20/20... at least I'm sticking to the plan and buying this amount on the official RBD.
I mostly just track this because I find it interesting. I probably won't try this strategy again, and just lump sum the money when I'm ready to buy... based on this first attempt.
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence." -Charles Bukowski
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.
Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
Hmmmm...
Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
Hmmmm...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is a small part of our overall portfolio, but our HSA is in the middle of switching custodians. The HSA investments were liquidated at Tuesday's close last week with S&P 500 closing at 4,480.70 and those dollars have been in cash since then. Good timing so far to sell high and lock in those games, though admittedly it's just by sheer luck and nothing else.
The blackout period is currently ongoing and will not be lifted until next week. Who knows where we'll be in another week when I'll be able to reinvest those dollars, but right now I'm just sitting here happy that they liquidated the investments last week instead of this week for the switchover.
The blackout period is currently ongoing and will not be lifted until next week. Who knows where we'll be in another week when I'll be able to reinvest those dollars, but right now I'm just sitting here happy that they liquidated the investments last week instead of this week for the switchover.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Fact: we will reach ATH again
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I never understand analysis like this. Like, every single transaction has a buyer and a seller. How do you know when to emphasize the seller, not the buyer?RetireBy55 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:54 pm Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.
Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You market timers made me lookGoldenFinch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:50 pmDeposited large sum on Friday and will invest it today. Of course I’m wondering whether I should put in part today and part tomorrow….
Now, I am transferring money from my Ally to my brokerage to partake in the buy fest. Wait for meeeee!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The real question is if I should TLH the ~$400 loss from the lot I bought this week. Hmmm....
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I haven't funded my Roth this year besides conversions. I'm waiting for more blood in the water.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I got paid today but the money hasn't been transferred to my account yet. I hope the red becomes even redder!tenkuky wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:58 pmYou market timers made me lookGoldenFinch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:50 pmDeposited large sum on Friday and will invest it today. Of course I’m wondering whether I should put in part today and part tomorrow….
Now, I am transferring money from my Ally to my brokerage to partake in the buy fest. Wait for meeeee!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like new lots of Total US / VTI since the end of June are likely to have losses to harvest. We realized more than $1k today. Maybe too early?bogledogle wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:59 pmThe real question is if I should TLH the ~$400 loss from the lot I bought this week
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I invested a rather large (for me) sum last Wednesday, which was the only up day since we reached ATH on 09/02. So now I'm just going to go to my bedroom and pout.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Deleted
Last edited by fatcoffeedrinker on Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If you TLH now, what will you do with the funds?harikaried wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:09 pm Looks like new lots of Total US / VTI since the end of June are likely to have losses to harvest. We realized more than $1k today. Maybe too early?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Already spent it! (As well as extra cash and some bonds to buy Total-ish US.)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I would think that there would have to be one heck of a dip before a thread like that would be triggered.Hyperchicken wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
50% VTSAX | 25% VTIAX | 25% VBTLX (retirement), 25% VTEAX (taxable)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But it's the right time to buy VTSAX!Hyperchicken wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
mikejuss wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:16 pmI would think that there would have to be one heck of a dip before a thread like that would be triggered.Hyperchicken wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
That would be more logical. But, the funny thing is, threads of that kind are more often seen around the top than around the bottom.pasadena wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:17 pmBut it's the right time to buy VTSAX!Hyperchicken wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:15 pm I take it, we won't see "should I take out a mortgage and invest it in VTSAX" threads for few days.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I just came into some money (court case settlement), so maybe this correction will be fortuitous for me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yeah.. gonna give it a day or two.harikaried wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:09 pmLooks like new lots of Total US / VTI since the end of June are likely to have losses to harvest. We realized more than $1k today. Maybe too early?bogledogle wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:59 pmThe real question is if I should TLH the ~$400 loss from the lot I bought this week
Last edited by bogledogle on Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Eyeing the emergency fund a bit, a really bad week of -10% would be very tempting to nibble.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don’t know why people get tripped up on this “every transaction has a buyer and a seller” bit when it comes to stocks. Let’s assume:PicassoSparks wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:57 pmI never understand analysis like this. Like, every single transaction has a buyer and a seller. How do you know when to emphasize the seller, not the buyer?RetireBy55 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:54 pm Seems to be a bit of a stampede to the exits going on.
Usually see a bit more buying on big dips like this, but every little turn upward quickly seems to be being met with more vigorous "run!" selling.
1) You live in a very desirable real estate market.
2) 10 people want to buy a house. Only 2 people want to sell a house.
3) 2 transactions occur, with prices determined via a bidding war.
4) RE prices continue to rise to a point that 5 of the original 10 buyers no longer want to buy, and an additional 3 owners decide they now want to sell. 3 more transactions occur.
5) In total, 5 transactions occurred, and every transaction (obviously) had a buyer and a seller. However, that does nothing to explain that prices initially rose because there were more people who wanted to buy than there were homes available to buy.
Stocks are no different, except it’s even more tangible in the sense that there are actually order books which update in real time each and every day. Prices rise when demand for stocks outweigh supply until such time as equilibrium is met, just like in any other market.