U.S. stocks in free fall

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ChinchillaWhiplash
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by ChinchillaWhiplash »

Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:49 pm What bad days? we haven't even reached correction territory on S&P 500 yet, wait until it crosses 200 day average on the down then the real bad days will begin. Your portfolio should be designed with this in mind, so that when these eventual drawdowns happen we know what we're expected to do. Consider the past 10-12 years a gift and especially the last 3 years as bonus on top. Market isn't expected to average 16% per annum as it did since 2012. We are going to give back some of it and earn the averages over long periods. Market timing is impossible, otherwise we could all just sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.
It has broke the 200 day moving average. So has the Nasdaq.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

AlphaLess wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:12 pm Bye-bye the argument that crypto is an inflation hedge.

Inflation is up to 7%, and crypto is down 38%.

Actually, thinking about it: I have not found a single thing that crypto is good for.

Especially bitcoin.

In fact, the total value added by bitcoin to society is probably VERY negative (let's exclude crypto paper billionaires and millionaires).
Yep. Inflation hedge maybe only in a country like Zimbabwe, Venezuela or Turkey.

And its status as a "store of value" akin to gold is very questionable now.

It's still a young asset, so who knows where it will be in 30 years. But right now....I'm not sold.
Elysium
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Elysium »

ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:06 pm
Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:49 pm What bad days? we haven't even reached correction territory on S&P 500 yet, wait until it crosses 200 day average on the down then the real bad days will begin. Your portfolio should be designed with this in mind, so that when these eventual drawdowns happen we know what we're expected to do. Consider the past 10-12 years a gift and especially the last 3 years as bonus on top. Market isn't expected to average 16% per annum as it did since 2012. We are going to give back some of it and earn the averages over long periods. Market timing is impossible, otherwise we could all just sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.
It has broke the 200 day moving average.
:sharebeer okay then hang on to the seat of your pants.

Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
Admiral
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Admiral »

Meh. I'd rather buy stocks when they are cheaper, which I will be doing next pay day.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by ChinchillaWhiplash »

Starting to get into bad day territory. No real catalyst other than some known factors. There is a bit of uncertainty with geopolitical stuff which is putting some investors on edge. Markets will probably continue on a downward trend for a while. But who knows :confused Good time to invest extra cash or rebalance.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by ChinchillaWhiplash »

Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm
ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:06 pm
Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:49 pm What bad days? we haven't even reached correction territory on S&P 500 yet, wait until it crosses 200 day average on the down then the real bad days will begin. Your portfolio should be designed with this in mind, so that when these eventual drawdowns happen we know what we're expected to do. Consider the past 10-12 years a gift and especially the last 3 years as bonus on top. Market isn't expected to average 16% per annum as it did since 2012. We are going to give back some of it and earn the averages over long periods. Market timing is impossible, otherwise we could all just sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.
It has broke the 200 day moving average.
:sharebeer okay then hang on to the seat of your pants.

Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
Hope he is incorrect. But Nasdaq might drop that much. Going down quick.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:56 pm I’m going to keep doing incremental purchases.
That's what my 401k is doing.
Californiastate
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Californiastate »

This is nothing out of the ordinary. It'll test some individual asset allocations. It's easy to be 100% equities with the flood tide. It's harder with the ebb.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by NoRoboGuy »

Jeremy "Broken Clock" Grantham? Really?
There is no free lunch.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

RubyTuesday wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:33 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:43 am
fanmail wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:48 am and after some brief soaring, we're falling again
get used to the falling. It's going to happen for much of 2022 if the Fed sticks to its plan to raise interest rates and pull back on QE.
quadog wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:38 am Where are the “dry powder” folks at? Have we not fallen far enough?

(Edit: doh! Here they are!)
I have some dry powder! Probably around $90k cash sitting in my IRA's now. But I'm not buying for a while. I think market will continue dropping.

This is why I started selling stocks (especially growth/tech) and all my crypto in late December and first week of January. I knew it would be good to have cash for depreciated stocks. :) :mrgreen: :moneybag :dollar
With your keen insight into future market moves, why didn’t you trust yourself and go really big short?
Great idea! :D :moneybag :dollar
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by frugalecon »

Three years ago, in their 2019 Economic and Market Outlook Report, Vanguard forecast that U.S. equities would have a return of 3-5% over the next 10 years. A lot of people seemed to nod calmly and state that this made sense. Returns have obviously been far greater than that. If a market decline pulls returns closer to that level, perhaps we are just getting what was reasonable in the first place.
rockstar
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by rockstar »

frugalecon wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:22 pm Three years ago, in their 2019 Economic and Market Outlook Report, Vanguard forecast that U.S. equities would have a return of 3-5% over the next 10 years. A lot of people seemed to nod calmly and state that this made sense. Returns have obviously been far greater than that. If a market decline pulls returns closer to that level, perhaps we are just getting what was reasonable in the first place.
This is how you get back to those returns. If you buy at a high valuation and hold, you can guarantee a lower return. Of course, it's all relative to rates.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by coffeeblack »

I guess this is where AA matters. We retired a couple of years ago with a 50/50 AA. It still hurts to see things drop.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Wannaretireearly »

Just funded my backdoor Roth for dw and I today. Vemax/vwo/emerging markets to infinity and beyond!!
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by stocknoob4111 »

ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:06 pm It has broke the 200 day moving average. So has the Nasdaq.
Yes, and it has DECISIVELY broken the 200 DMA today, I think the market has spoken that the previous sentiment is over. I am not worried, long term these things will sort out just like they have hundreds of times before, but for discussion we are in turbulent territory, at least that is what I think. I am anticipating a up to 20% decline in the current trend similar to the Dec 2018 17.5% pullback.

I agree with Tom Lee, I think our gains are going to come in the 2nd half of 2022, the first half is going to be a mess.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by richard.h.gao »

Gold is up. Real estate is up. Buy hard assets.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Johnny Thinwallet »

I have a small section on our net worth spreadsheet where I run a quick calculation to show what our net worth would be if I snapped my fingers and saw stocks drop 50 percent. That figure isn't really as bad as one would think, largely because of all the other non-stock assets that we own. This includes bonds, I bonds, liquid cash, home equity and pension withdraw values.

Every dollar we have invested in stocks is earmarked for long-term (15+ years) so sell offs don't bother me too much. It's mostly just an additional opportunity to buy cheaper stocks. So long as our jobs maintain stability, daily life marches on as normal.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by TropikThunder »

Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
Has he ever been objectively correct? And not just in a “blind pig finds an acorn” way? Any dramatic decline he predicted having come to pass in anything resembling a reasonable time period?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bugleheadd »

havent looked at my accounts for at least 2 weeks now. i can roughly guess what its value is
Elysium
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Elysium »

TropikThunder wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:20 pm
Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
Has he ever been objectively correct? And not just in a “blind pig finds an acorn” way? Any dramatic decline he predicted having come to pass in anything resembling a reasonable time period?
I just reported what he said, everyone here knows about Grantham and his permanent negative outlook for US Equities and his love for EM value stocks. I don't act based upon forecasts or time the market, but I do pay attention to my AA and risk control, just so we are ready when the inevitable drop happens, which I believe we are due for one because a lot of investor have forgotten what risk look like.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by blaugranamd »

Ignore. The. Noise.

Seriously, stop looking at your portfolio.

Go drink a beer :sharebeer
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by tetractys »

My portfolio is still pretty much in balance, so I can’t see that there’s any call to panic. Markets can be tough on the uninitiated. Just try and relax.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by rob »

We are far FAR from "free fall"..... If your having issues with a few points then rethink you risk profile before something really happens...
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by tetractys »

We all remember our greenhorn days :beer Welcome to the party!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
You might even have to change your username :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender »

peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
and you'll accumulate stocks with what money? You've likely lost your job and possibly other prized belongings. Money may be so scarce that you need to ration simply to survive and eat day-to-day in a "full-on depression". Lets be a bit more realistic and considerate...
Last edited by ReformedSpender on Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:56 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
I for one would agree with a ban on any post celebrating downturns. Let's make it happen.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silk McCue »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
I can appreciate how you feel. Your AA should already account for this potential downturn based on your specific financial situation.

Cheers
Tortoise2030
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Tortoise2030 »

8.6% drop in the S&P 500 since the 4,813.23 high on January 4. I'm in my early 50s and feel that my 50/50 AA is about right. Keep on keeping on.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by sf_tech_saver »

I sense some buying opportunities for the next year or two as the interest rate changes shake out.

While you can't time the market you can certainly try to be esp thrifty on your savings rate when the market is under its 200++ day averages to the downside. I plan on tightening the belt as much as possible as long as we are headed mostly down!

Buying consistently and maximally through the corrections is where we really add value to the market as investors. Let's go....
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by WhiteMaxima »

Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year. Stay with equity for long term.
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fetch5482
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fetch5482 »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.

I understand how you feel, but...

Why would it matter if your see the full recovery or not? By now you'd be 60+% on bonds, no? If not, clearly you had the capacity to take risks of such market conditions.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:30 am
stoptothink wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:27 amthe majority of his NW is tied up in the company. Been crazy watching the life just drain out of him over the last handful of months.
Ugh... didn't you warn him??

(I know, I know... touchy subject with family, especially in-laws)
You can talk to people like that until you turn purple, but they always have to learn not to be concentrated in their own employer…by experience. Every time. And sometimes, they still don’t learn.

Fortunately this guy is young. I’ve known people in their 50’s who did that.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Guess you haven't seen this:

Image

Or this:

Image
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flyingaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flyingaway »

Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by LadyGeek »

an_asker wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:15 pm [Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

We've US Stocks in Free Fall and Bonds in Free Fall. I thought it best to start a combined category :oops:

Just watching - I don't know if we have had a RBD yet or these are all just a series of BDs only?
I merged an_asker's thread into the ongoing discussion. Let's stick to a single free fall thread for each asset class - stocks and bonds.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jimsad »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
+1
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

000 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:50 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
You might even have to change your username :shock:
All this time I was reading it as Upper Northwest Guy. I thought he lived in the Northwest! :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
I'll guess 15%...


This is sourced from twitter.

https://twitter.com/gostr84ward/status/ ... 3958685696

There were 20 stock market drops of more than 10% from 1946 through 2015.

12 saw losses greater than 20%.

5 saw losses greater than 30%.

2 saw losses greater than 40%.

1 saw losses greater than 50%.

Each $1 invested in the SP 500 grew to $1,100 over this period.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Robot Monster »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:06 pm Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year. Stay with equity for long term.
Yes, that's the sad truth about cash. If you move to cash you expose yourself to an unknown amount of inflation risk. Inflation could conceivably be high for several years, maybe along the lines of three years of 7%, 7%, 7%, or four years of 5%, 5%, 5%, 5%. (See Jeremy Siegel prediction in article below.) And yes, the Fed could raise rates a lot, but still be far below inflation.

article link
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:42 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:50 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
You might even have to change your username :shock:
All this time I was reading it as Upper Northwest Guy. I thought he lived in the Northwest! :oops:
I thought the same thing. :oops:
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by flyingaway »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:44 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:06 pm Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year. Stay with equity for long term.
Yes, that's the sad truth about cash. If you move to cash you expose yourself to an unknown amount of inflation risk. Inflation could conceivably be high for several years, maybe along the lines of three years of 7%, 7%, 7%, or four years of 5%, 5%, 5%, 5%. (See Jeremy Siegel prediction in article below.) And yes, the Fed could raise rates a lot, but still be far below inflation.

article link
Cash is dry power, you fire cash when you see the market bottom (hopefully).
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Elysium wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm :sharebeer okay then hang on to the seat of your pants.

Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
Another market timing guru?

Image

Where do you think Grantham lies in this pie chart:

Image
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
My guess is VTI 212.
Last edited by 000 on Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Kookaburra »

flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
Put me down for -20%. And no quick pop back like the ‘rona crash.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

I say we bounce back Tuesday and for the rest of the week after another drop Monday. I think once a particular geopolitical issue I will not name resolves, there will be relief. Of course I have no idea, just a guess.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)

Post by Robot Monster »

flyingaway wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:47 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:44 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:06 pm Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year. Stay with equity for long term.
Yes, that's the sad truth about cash. If you move to cash you expose yourself to an unknown amount of inflation risk. Inflation could conceivably be high for several years, maybe along the lines of three years of 7%, 7%, 7%, or four years of 5%, 5%, 5%, 5%. (See Jeremy Siegel prediction in article below.) And yes, the Fed could raise rates a lot, but still be far below inflation.

article link
Cash is dry power, you fire cash when you see the market bottom (hopefully).
Holding a lot of cash waiting for a crash runs the risk of waiting and waiting and waiting while inflation eats away at it. There's also the risk of missing the bottom. I missed the bottom last year, I thought the market would go way lower. I thought when it started rising, it was a dead cat bounce.

Personally, I'm approximately 65% TIPS, 25% stocks, 10% cash. I can aggressively rebalance into stocks to maintain my allocation.
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by KlangFool »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm

I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
UpperNwGuy,

I am prepared to last long enough until it no longer matter. If the downturn last long enough, it won't be a money problem. So, why should it (money) matters?

I am being very pragmatic.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
frugalecon
Posts: 671
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:39 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by frugalecon »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:42 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:50 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
You might even have to change your username :shock:
All this time I was reading it as Upper Northwest Guy. I thought he lived in the Northwest! :oops:
As someone who lives in the DC area, I assumed he live in Upper Northwest DC. (Like the North Cleveland Park, Chevy Chase, Tenleytown, AU Park area.) Hey @UpperNWGuy, which hypothesis is correct?
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