red again so back here!
U.S. stocks in free fall
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's a side benefit of a down day: the extra company!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Its going down...
Im crying
Im crying
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
-1.5% swing from the open to now
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
IWM at a new 52 week low
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Some last minute ejecting from the market!!!
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Wow, that -1% call was ON TARGET!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
VTI closed 6.5% off the all time highs, but it is only back to the early December lows so far.
-
- Posts: 241
- Joined: Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:42 am
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If this is the beginning of a bear market, it will have been the most predictable in history.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Paycheck came in and I bought some shares of VXUS and VTI. Then the end of day drop happened....lol.
My fault.
My fault.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Careful. We already have a shortage of kidney donors.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, I think it's safe to say I won't be buying at ATHs for once on Friday when I get paid
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's only about a 33% drop from the peak. That is roughly what we had in 2020 (short-lived). I would expect a deeper drop at some point given the huge run-up we have had, and to, as you say, "feel a truly painful market decline".Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Waiting for VIX=35 moment like on De 3 2021.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What makes you think that the 35-year old overconfident investors have contributed to the market going up so much?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
If March 2020 was a slap on the wrist, I would say a couple of kidney punches would be down 70% from Jan 2022 highs, down to 1450 territory.
What's a double kidney punch if it simple goes back to the slap on the wrist level.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Going recessions / crises, IWM generally is ahead. As in, it underperforms first.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't think 35 year-old over confident investors have contributed to the market going up so much. I don't believe that and I didn't say that.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pmWhat makes you think that the 35-year old overconfident investors have contributed to the market going up so much?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
If March 2020 was a slap on the wrist, I would say a couple of kidney punches would be down 70% from Jan 2022 highs, down to 1450 territory.
What's a double kidney punch if it simple goes back to the slap on the wrist level.
A 70% drop would be a nail gun to the face. Let's not get crazy.
What makes it a double kidney punch at 35% isn't the 35% drop by itself, but the 3+ years to recover. That's where the real pain is. A large drop, and then a largely sideways market or a slow climb back up.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Doesn't this actually tend to indicate the opposite of your point, namely that we are converting bears to bulls and thus running out of buyers?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm betting on this.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/447987 ... mini-crash
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Interesting. Thanks for the clarification. I did not mean to put things in your mouth - apologies for misunderstanding.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:22 pmI don't think 35 year-old over confident investors have contributed to the market going up so much. I don't believe that and I didn't say that.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pmWhat makes you think that the 35-year old overconfident investors have contributed to the market going up so much?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
If March 2020 was a slap on the wrist, I would say a couple of kidney punches would be down 70% from Jan 2022 highs, down to 1450 territory.
What's a double kidney punch if it simple goes back to the slap on the wrist level.
A 70% drop would be a nail gun to the face. Let's not get crazy.
What makes it a double kidney punch at 35% isn't the 35% drop by itself, but the 3+ years to recover. That's where the real pain is. A large drop, and then a largely sideways market or a slow climb back up.
In my opinion, what contributes the recovery being long or short is a function of capital, alpha, and willingness of large funds (call them hedge funds) that have directional exposure.
The reason 2020 March drop was short-lived has to do with various talking heads with money (e.g., Bill Ackman) deciding that it is over, pilling into positions en masse, and then going out on TV and announcing his positions. Of course, it is better to make $2B in 2 months, vs 2 years.
The reason 2008 recovery was long and painful has to do with a lot of those "investors" running out of money. Essentially, they all put their capital at risk, one-by-one, and one-by-one, they all lost. Only Tepper timed the bottom of the market.
There were other reasons too. In 2008, help for rank-and-file people (middle class) came too late. A lot of people sold their 401Ks - not at the bottom, but lower - even though many of them had 70% stocks, 30% bonds; probably moved to bonds or other investments LATER, which contributed to market going down.
In Mar 2020, help came early and forceful, and people ended up SAVING.
Let's see how that plays out this time.
My characterization:
- Mar 2020 was a broken bone: an obvious bone, with good healing properties. Easy diagnosis: can see on X-ray. Put a cast on it, and then once the cast is out, do aggressive physical therapy,
- next one could be like a hard-to-diagnose migraine. Stays around a long time. Unclear what is wrong. Unclear if there is an actual solution: pharmacological or otherwise.
Last edited by AlphaLess on Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Good post and I like your analogies!AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:35 pmInteresting. Thanks for the clarification. I did not mean to put things in your mouth - apologies for misunderstanding.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:22 pmI don't think 35 year-old over confident investors have contributed to the market going up so much. I don't believe that and I didn't say that.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pmWhat makes you think that the 35-year old overconfident investors have contributed to the market going up so much?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
If March 2020 was a slap on the wrist, I would say a couple of kidney punches would be down 70% from Jan 2022 highs, down to 1450 territory.
What's a double kidney punch if it simple goes back to the slap on the wrist level.
A 70% drop would be a nail gun to the face. Let's not get crazy.
What makes it a double kidney punch at 35% isn't the 35% drop by itself, but the 3+ years to recover. That's where the real pain is. A large drop, and then a largely sideways market or a slow climb back up.
In my opinion, what contributes the recovery being long or short is a function of capital, alpha, and willingness of large funds (call them hedge funds) that have directional exposure.
The reason 2020 March drop was short-lived has to do with various talking heads with money (e.g., Bill Ackman) going out on TV and announcing his positions. Of course, it is better to make $2B in 2 months, vs 2 years.
The reason 2008 recovery was long and painful has to do with a lot of those "investors" running out of money. Essentially, they all put their capital at risk, one-by-one, and one-by-one, they all lost. Only Tepper timed the bottom of the market.
There were other reasons too. In 2008, help for rank-and-file people (middle class) came too late. A lot of people sold their 401Ks - not at the bottom, but lower - even though many of them had 70% stocks, 30% bonds; probably moved to bonds or other investments LATER, which contributed to market going down.
In Mar 2020, help came early and forceful, and people ended up SAVING.
Let's see how that plays out this time.
My characterization:
- Mar 2020 was a broken bone: an obvious bone, with good healing properties. Easy diagnosis: can see on X-ray. Put a cast on it, and then once the cast is out, do aggressive physical therapy,
- next one could be like a hard-to-diagnose migraine. Stays around a long time. Unclear what is wrong. Unclear if there is an actual solution: pharmacological or otherwise.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thank you!
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Agree with you . I was also getting tired of these 35yr old over confident 100% stock holders who never experienced any declinesTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:22 pmI don't think 35 year-old over confident investors have contributed to the market going up so much. I don't believe that and I didn't say that.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pmWhat makes you think that the 35-year old overconfident investors have contributed to the market going up so much?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
If March 2020 was a slap on the wrist, I would say a couple of kidney punches would be down 70% from Jan 2022 highs, down to 1450 territory.
What's a double kidney punch if it simple goes back to the slap on the wrist level.
A 70% drop would be a nail gun to the face. Let's not get crazy.
What makes it a double kidney punch at 35% isn't the 35% drop by itself, but the 3+ years to recover. That's where the real pain is. A large drop, and then a largely sideways market or a slow climb back up.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like we're just about -5% from the ATH, at the half way mark of a correction.
-
- Posts: 1636
- Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A multi year recovery period is great. Loads of time to accumulate cheaper stock. If it crashes I hope it stays down for about 10 years until I retire.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:22 pmI don't think 35 year-old over confident investors have contributed to the market going up so much. I don't believe that and I didn't say that.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pmWhat makes you think that the 35-year old overconfident investors have contributed to the market going up so much?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
If March 2020 was a slap on the wrist, I would say a couple of kidney punches would be down 70% from Jan 2022 highs, down to 1450 territory.
What's a double kidney punch if it simple goes back to the slap on the wrist level.
A 70% drop would be a nail gun to the face. Let's not get crazy.
What makes it a double kidney punch at 35% isn't the 35% drop by itself, but the 3+ years to recover. That's where the real pain is. A large drop, and then a largely sideways market or a slow climb back up.
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Retail investors have doubled in terms of percentage of overall, since 2019.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pmWhat makes you think that the 35-year old overconfident investors have contributed to the market going up so much?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
If March 2020 was a slap on the wrist, I would say a couple of kidney punches would be down 70% from Jan 2022 highs, down to 1450 territory.
What's a double kidney punch if it simple goes back to the slap on the wrist level.
While this is welcome news to a certain degree, many of these individuals are likely not "Bogleheads". It's been met with the irrational "muh diamond hands" WSB crowd. The late comers ie bagholders to that group have been absolutely scorched lately, their life savings drained on risky bets like ARKK, GME, etc. They laugh at each other playfully using the r-word (think mental disability). I'm (pleasantly) surprised there haven't been more Robinhood suicides recently.
Risk management is not necessarily endemic to many, and certain segments of the market behave like a Ponzi scheme. For all the gripe I get on this thread about not being a perfect Boglehead because I've played the market timing game, I at least know very well to avoid whimsical forms of "investing".
Last edited by JoinTheLocalizer on Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
IMHO "Buy the dip" will prove to be one of the worst strategies as we witness the most epic unwinding of our lifetime.DB2 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:33 pmI'm betting on this.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/447987 ... mini-crash
Last edited by JoinTheLocalizer on Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Those two statements seem completely contradictory, and a bit like "economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today".AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:35 pmInteresting. Thanks for the clarification. I did not mean to put things in your mouth - apologies for misunderstanding.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:22 pmI don't think 35 year-old over confident investors have contributed to the market going up so much. I don't believe that and I didn't say that.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:17 pmWhat makes you think that the 35-year old overconfident investors have contributed to the market going up so much?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm I'm looking for a nice, slow, painful bleed down to 3,200 or lower for the S&P 500 at year-end. Then, a good 3+ years to get back to 4,800. We have far too many over confident investors under age 35 who have never seen or felt a truly painful market decline. March 2020 was a slap on the wrist. We need a couple kidney punches to straighten things out.
I believe this will help young investors in the long run because they will become more self-aware before it's too late.
If March 2020 was a slap on the wrist, I would say a couple of kidney punches would be down 70% from Jan 2022 highs, down to 1450 territory.
What's a double kidney punch if it simple goes back to the slap on the wrist level.
A 70% drop would be a nail gun to the face. Let's not get crazy.
What makes it a double kidney punch at 35% isn't the 35% drop by itself, but the 3+ years to recover. That's where the real pain is. A large drop, and then a largely sideways market or a slow climb back up.
In my opinion, what contributes the recovery being long or short is a function of capital, alpha, and willingness of large funds (call them hedge funds) that have directional exposure.
The reason 2020 March drop was short-lived has to do with various talking heads with money (e.g., Bill Ackman) deciding that it is over, pilling into positions en masse, and then going out on TV and announcing his positions. Of course, it is better to make $2B in 2 months, vs 2 years.
The reason 2008 recovery was long and painful has to do with a lot of those "investors" running out of money. Essentially, they all put their capital at risk, one-by-one, and one-by-one, they all lost. Only Tepper timed the bottom of the market.
There were other reasons too. In 2008, help for rank-and-file people (middle class) came too late. A lot of people sold their 401Ks - not at the bottom, but lower - even though many of them had 70% stocks, 30% bonds; probably moved to bonds or other investments LATER, which contributed to market going down.
In Mar 2020, help came early and forceful, and people ended up SAVING.
Let's see how that plays out this time.
My characterization:
- Mar 2020 was a broken bone: an obvious bone, with good healing properties. Easy diagnosis: can see on X-ray. Put a cast on it, and then once the cast is out, do aggressive physical therapy,
- next one could be like a hard-to-diagnose migraine. Stays around a long time. Unclear what is wrong. Unclear if there is an actual solution: pharmacological or otherwise.
In 2008, the big hitters all put their money in and lost, but somehow in 2020 they were miraculously able to turn it around with their investments?!?
People are always looking for simple "reasons" markets do what they do. Even in hindsight, I don't think it is that simple.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No, my point was not that the market will keep going up. My point is that predicting the future is hard.
I'm not taking the opposite position of any predictions made here on this message board. I just step up and post that "No one knows".
No one knows enough to predict the future. Predicting the future is hard. Market-timing is hard.
I make NO predictions which way the market will go this year or next. When I disagree with someone making a prediction, it's the fact that a prediction was made at all, not that I believe the prediction is wrong.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"There are no certainties, only probabilities"HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:01 pmNo, my point was not that the market will keep going up. My point is that predicting the future is hard.
Do you really think all this time I've been saying "The market is going to keep going up" or "International will continue to trail the U.S."?
I'm not taking the opposite position of any predictions made here on this message board. I just step up and post that "No one knows".
No one knows enough to predict the future. Predicting the future is hard. Market-timing is hard.
I make NO predictions which way the market will go this year or next. When I disagree with someone making a prediction, it's the fact that a prediction was made at all.
In the aviation world, "nobody knows nothing" is akin to what is referred to as resignation, a hazardous attitude. It is typically used when a pilot freezes and becomes a passenger aboard their own plane, because "The crosswind is just too strong. Oh well! Whatever happens, happens, just stay the course and hope I don't get blown off the runway". If you'd like to roll your eyes at my analogy, you are perfectly free to do so.
It is not a prerequisite to abide by what I consider a childish and flippant catch phrase to be considered a Boglehead.
I believe in markets. But most important, I believe in rational markets. As such: I buy value, and diversify based on macro conditions. I was up this week when the market was down. Maybe it was luck? But, I'm guessing it was more like I stood on an 15 when the dealer showed a 6. I could've been wrong, but more than likely I was going to be right.
As a Boglehead I am not required to buy SPY, VTSAX, VTI or anything of the sort. I consider the index funds at present poorly diversified and overvalued. I invest in JTL, or "JoinTheLocalizer" fund. I own 1 share.
Last edited by JoinTheLocalizer on Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:21 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Don’t feel too bad. I did this with Apple. Made some good money with it and then I decided to sell. That was years ago and I don’t even want to do the math.AerialWombat wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:22 pmThree years ago, I made a killing when Piedmont Lithium spiked up. I looked like a genius back then.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:58 amI think the macro trade bet is on lithium and lithium mining companies. The world is moving towards EVs. There is not enough lithium production to meet the future demand for batteries. As more countries enforce EV only sales you'll see pricing pressures -- you're already seeing pricing pressures in lithium commodities.bostonboglehead123 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:55 am I know most of this thread is lighthearted jabbing at market timers, but just to inject something different:
What trade has the best risk / reward if you want to make a macro bet (e.g., number of rate hikes this year)? Meme stocks? Unprofitable companies? Trade treasury bonds? Play the whole of SPY / NASDAQ?
Right now the market seems to be pricing in 4 rate hikes. Let's say my assumption is we won't quite get there and we'll be fine inflation wise by the summer. My 2c is calls on AMZN, but I don't have the guts to act on it, so I just buy SPY and chill.
Now that it’s doubled twice more, I look like an idiot for not having hodl’d.
Silly stocks!
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?
- firebirdparts
- Posts: 4411
- Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm
- Location: Southern Appalachia
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Saw a headline that the Nasdaq composite was down more than 10% now, from the high, which seems to have been around November 15.
This time is the same
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No one knows enough to accurately calculate the probabilities.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:09 pm"There are no certainties, only probabilities"HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:01 pmNo, my point was not that the market will keep going up. My point is that predicting the future is hard.
Do you really think all this time I've been saying "The market is going to keep going up" or "International will continue to trail the U.S."?
I'm not taking the opposite position of any predictions made here on this message board. I just step up and post that "No one knows".
No one knows enough to predict the future. Predicting the future is hard. Market-timing is hard.
I make NO predictions which way the market will go this year or next. When I disagree with someone making a prediction, it's the fact that a prediction was made at all.
I'm afraid we've heard the blackjack analogy many times here.But, I'm guessing it was more like I stood on an 15 when the dealer showed a 6. I could've been wrong, but more than likely I was going to be right.
The problem is that that investing is far more complicated.
We don't know how many cards are in the deck, we don't know the rules of the game except by looking back at the last 100 hands and trying derive the rules by seeing which hands won the past. Heck, the rules can CHANGE at any time, so even looking back at the last 100 hands isn't that useful since maybe the rules changed 30 hands ago.
Human laws. human organizations can manipulate outcomes, and even human emotions are involved. Imagine trying to land a rocket on the moon if the gravitational constant changed day-to-day based on investor sentiment.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sure, that's fair. What part of Boglehead philosophy do you agree with?JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:09 pmAs a Boglehead I am not required to buy SPY, VTSAX, VTI or anything of the sort. I consider the index funds at present poorly diversified and overvalued.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Conflation of concepts in an attempt to overcomplicate the issue is a common symptom for those exhibiting a resignation attitude, going so far as to indicate the rules of money could change, as if (for example) the Fed could snap its finger and make its balance sheet disappear without consequence. No sir this newsletter is not for me.HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:22 pmNo one knows enough to accurately calculate the probabilities.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:09 pm"There are no certainties, only probabilities"HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:01 pmNo, my point was not that the market will keep going up. My point is that predicting the future is hard.
Do you really think all this time I've been saying "The market is going to keep going up" or "International will continue to trail the U.S."?
I'm not taking the opposite position of any predictions made here on this message board. I just step up and post that "No one knows".
No one knows enough to predict the future. Predicting the future is hard. Market-timing is hard.
I make NO predictions which way the market will go this year or next. When I disagree with someone making a prediction, it's the fact that a prediction was made at all.
I'm afraid we've heard the blackjack analogy many times here.But, I'm guessing it was more like I stood on an 15 when the dealer showed a 6. I could've been wrong, but more than likely I was going to be right.
The problem is that that investing is far more complicated.
We don't know how many cards are in the deck, we don't know the rules of the game except by looking back at the last 100 hands and trying derive the rules by seeing which hands won the past. Heck, the rules can CHANGE at any time, so even looking back at the last 100 hands isn't that useful since maybe the rules changed 30 hands ago.
Human laws. human organizations can manipulate outcomes, and even human emotions are involved. Imagine trying to land a rocket on the moon if the gravitational constant changed day-to-day based on investor sentiment.
Last edited by JoinTheLocalizer on Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You saw it in my previous reply. Buy value, believe in markets long-term. I see precious little value in the indices/funds listed above. When they begin to exhibit value again, I am going to dip back in.HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:22 pmSure, that's fair. What part of Boglehead philosophy do you agree with?JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:09 pmAs a Boglehead I am not required to buy SPY, VTSAX, VTI or anything of the sort. I consider the index funds at present poorly diversified and overvalued.
No need to overcomplicate the issue or cite flippant catch phrases.
Last edited by JoinTheLocalizer on Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
- AnnetteLouisan
- Posts: 7261
- Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
- Location: New York, NY
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I bought some FSKAX today in my Roth IRA at $127. Not a lot but four digits before the decimal. I’m planning to buy more in the coming weeks. Not advocating that for anyone else. Just sharing my news.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What about all the bullish predictions made over the last decade?HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:01 pm No, my point was not that the market will keep going up. My point is that predicting the future is hard.
I'm not taking the opposite position of any predictions made here on this message board. I just step up and post that "No one knows".
No one knows enough to predict the future. Predicting the future is hard. Market-timing is hard.
I make NO predictions which way the market will go this year or next. When I disagree with someone making a prediction, it's the fact that a prediction was made at all, not that I believe the prediction is wrong.
There must be a successful market timed dollar for every failed market timed dollar, right?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
heh, you'd think so, but most of what I've seen on Bogleheads and financial websites, has been bearish predictions.000 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:33 pmWhat about all the bullish predictions made over the last decade?HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:01 pm No, my point was not that the market will keep going up. My point is that predicting the future is hard.
I'm not taking the opposite position of any predictions made here on this message board. I just step up and post that "No one knows".
No one knows enough to predict the future. Predicting the future is hard. Market-timing is hard.
I make NO predictions which way the market will go this year or next. When I disagree with someone making a prediction, it's the fact that a prediction was made at all, not that I believe the prediction is wrong.
There must be a successful market timed dollar for every failed market timed dollar, right?
Maybe the people who might be smart enough to predict the future (i.e. bulls in the last 10 years), are also smart enough to keep their predictions to themselves to cash in?
So anyone who makes a prediction publicly, you can discount it, because if they really knew, they wouldn't say anything.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep. it is just that simple to outsmart the broader market, that is why so many people do it successfully over long periods of time.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:29 pmYou saw it in my previous reply. Buy value, believe in markets long-term. I see precious little value in the indices/funds listed above. When they begin to exhibit value again, I am going to dip back in.HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:22 pmSure, that's fair. What part of Boglehead philosophy do you agree with?JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:09 pmAs a Boglehead I am not required to buy SPY, VTSAX, VTI or anything of the sort. I consider the index funds at present poorly diversified and overvalued.
No need to overcomplicate the issue or cite flippant catch phrases.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
- FreddieFIRE
- Posts: 826
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2021 11:49 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Oh goody. It looks like we may be headed to that dreaded (but probably overdue) CORRECTION! Sound the alerts! I'll be napping with my ear plugs in so likely won't hear them. Wake me when it's over (again).
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Bingo!marcopolo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:45 pmYep. it is just that simple to outsmart the broader market, that is why so many people do it successfully over long periods of time.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:29 pmYou saw it in my previous reply. Buy value, believe in markets long-term. I see precious little value in the indices/funds listed above. When they begin to exhibit value again, I am going to dip back in.HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:22 pmSure, that's fair. What part of Boglehead philosophy do you agree with?JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:09 pmAs a Boglehead I am not required to buy SPY, VTSAX, VTI or anything of the sort. I consider the index funds at present poorly diversified and overvalued.
No need to overcomplicate the issue or cite flippant catch phrases.
I know you were being sarcastic but I'll be the contrarian and agree with the statement at face value
But speaking more seriously for a moment, I think people conflate my strategy with a strategy some person who thinks they're clever than they are execute over the course of 20 years. I do no such thing because I do agree that it's difficult to time the smaller fluctuations that aren't necessarily tied to any systemic event that was foreseeable, so you do the good Boglehead thing and take the downs with the ups during those times. However, predicting 2008 (albeit a year early), predicting COVID's impact, and today (predicting outcome of unwinding and esp the underestimation by investors) are special times when I entertain alternative options to the cookie cutter index fund way. The default signal is much more concentric with the views of this board.
- vanbogle59
- Posts: 1314
- Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 7:30 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I will grant you a similar courtesy and take you at face value.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:50 pm predicting 2008 (albeit a year early), predicting COVID's impact, and today (predicting outcome of unwinding and esp the underestimation by investors) are special times when I entertain alternative options to the cookie cutter index fund way.
Did you, in fact, properly time all those events?
Both exit and re-entry?
Were those the ONLY calls you ever made?
Never had a false positive?
I'm not aware of any user of this board who has sufficient history to demonstrate that.
Nor do I know of a single investment guru with such a public track record.
If you pulled it off, I'd love to hear more.
- JoinTheLocalizer
- Posts: 201
- Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:36 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Of course I did not time the 2008 right before the climax. IIRC it was more along later in 2007 as people were falling behind on their mortgages and delinquency rates rose above 4%. Far from perfect timing, and I would never hope to achieve such a feat.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:13 pmI will grant you a similar courtesy and take you at face value.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:50 pm predicting 2008 (albeit a year early), predicting COVID's impact, and today (predicting outcome of unwinding and esp the underestimation by investors) are special times when I entertain alternative options to the cookie cutter index fund way.
Did you, in fact, properly time all those events?
Both exit and re-entry?
Were those the ONLY calls you ever made?
Never had a false positive?
I'm not aware of any user of this board who has sufficient history to demonstrate that.
Nor do I know of a single investment guru with such a public track record.
If you pulled it off, I'd love to hear more.
The timing of the re-entry was also not binary. It was piecemeal starting a few months after the infamous childish Bear Stearns rant from Cramer and when TARP went into effect. I bought at suboptimal levels all the way down, but I got out almost completely after that 4% delinquency rate hit, that much I did do. In hindsight, I should've bought a really awesome car, boat or something else fun since so many people were broke as a joke and they were ultra cheap second hand. However, I did upgrade my house during the housing depression, leveraging on depressed prices.
COVID was when we started getting cases on the West Coast, those famous first cases in Washington/Oregon. [Political comment removed by Moderator Misenplace.] After oil went negative and as CARES was a shoe-in, I piled back into the market especially in anything energy based. I ignored stay-at-home plays and didn't pile into crypto either. Probably didn't time the entry perfectly at all.
I did not predict the taper tantrum at all, as I didn't study the subject more until after that event. Now I am better informed this go around.
That's all. I didn't predict anything else. I am not a soothsayer and do not possess a crystal ball. I lost money with ya'll during the taper tantrum and all along the way during otherwise unexplained short term dips from 2009 up until COVID.
As we say in the Machine Learning industry: low recall, high precision.
Last edited by JoinTheLocalizer on Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:35 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
More pain.
Hopefully, the tech companies reporting next week will left QQQ. Otherwise, I'm going to be forced to sell and wait out this rollercoaster.
Hopefully, the tech companies reporting next week will left QQQ. Otherwise, I'm going to be forced to sell and wait out this rollercoaster.