U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think what matters is how sick it makes people. Remember, coronaviruses also cause the common cold. Often mutations over time make viruses less virulent.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
2.3%? Oh my, alarm alarm. Uh, not so much.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:16 pmTell that to the markets, S&P500 down -2.3%, Small Caps down almost 4%.MadAsgardian wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:34 am It's cause for concern but this is unnecessarily alarmist.
While there are a lot of unknowns at this point, the fact is that it has been confirmed that the spike protein on this thing is very different and many experts have said that the efficacy of the current vaccines is in doubt. That is certainly cause for "alarm".
It will be sad if we see a 10% or 20% (or way more…) drop next week, because so many people will damage their long term growth by bailing out of stocks.
This new variant could be 2x worse, and I won’t sell a single share of equity funds. Unless we see an 85% drop, then I will finally sell my last high ER fund and buy VTSAX without getting hit with additional taxes. Of course, to go with the high ER, they will also distribute $20k in cap gains next month.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Silverado wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:27 pm2.3%? Oh my, alarm alarm. Uh, not so much.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:16 pmTell that to the markets, S&P500 down -2.3%, Small Caps down almost 4%.MadAsgardian wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:34 am It's cause for concern but this is unnecessarily alarmist.
While there are a lot of unknowns at this point, the fact is that it has been confirmed that the spike protein on this thing is very different and many experts have said that the efficacy of the current vaccines is in doubt. That is certainly cause for "alarm".
It will be sad if we see a 10% or 20% (or way more…) drop next week, because so many people will damage their long term growth by bailing out of stocks.
This new variant could be 2x worse, and I won’t sell a single share of equity funds. Unless we see an 85% drop, then I will finally sell my last high ER fund and buy VTSAX without getting hit with additional taxes. Of course, to go with the high ER, they will also distribute $20k in cap gains next month.
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Last edited by Zeno on Sat Mar 19, 2022 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So they will sell $20K of your investment for you. Presumably, you will use the distribution to buy VTSAX as you stated.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This must be why it's called Black Friday... for those nostalgic for Black Monday (1987), Black Tuesday (1929), etc.
20% down is just a run-of-the-mill, garden variety bear market (in fact, by definition, the smallest possible bear market). People who can't handle that should not be in stocks. If they're that skittish, then the old adage comes to mind...
"In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners."
It's all good.
Yeah, stocks have never been this low since... one month ago! The pain, the pain...
That's still a positive one-year return. What's not to like?It will be sad if we see a 10% or 20% (or way more…) drop next week, because so many people will damage their long term growth by bailing out of stocks.
20% down is just a run-of-the-mill, garden variety bear market (in fact, by definition, the smallest possible bear market). People who can't handle that should not be in stocks. If they're that skittish, then the old adage comes to mind...
"In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners."
It's all good.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Death by viral pandemic has been normal in the human condition since before our species arose and it has never gone away. HIV may kill 40 million before it is all said and done. Just 100 years ago a very similar pandemic, albeit a flu virus, occurred. This is a major economic issue however so I am not sure what you mean by hysterical, this could continue to hurt the economy in serious ways for years to come not to mention kill another 10 million people if it lasts 2-3 years.Ed 2 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:16 amWe are not in pandemic, it is combined pandemic and endemic. You can’t hedge against the mother of all bomb like this. Humanity never been in such scenario. The only thing I am glad stop hearing hysterical comments from talking heads like Jeremy Siegel and other Nostradamuses regarding raging infection , LOL.
By the way, crude down over 13% today! That is on the expectation of once again reduced activity and travel no doubt. That kind of move dwarfs a silly 2.5% drop in stocks.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
- oldcomputerguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Folks, let's please try to keep away from posts that only discuss the virulency of the new variant or whether vaccines will or will not affect it and so forth, and concentrate on financial issues. Thanks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm not advocating to sell, absolutely not, all I am saying is that this may result in a very rough wave that we will need to ride through, we've seen it before in March 2020 and it may even be a buying opportunity, all i'm saying is to buckle up as the seas may get rough.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Predictions for Monday?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I’ll bite. S&P down 2.5% on Monday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If memory serves from today, the smart folks at CNBC mentioned that the average drop with the previous two “variant scares” was 3-4%. Not sure how that squares with today’s low-volume pullback of approximately 2% in large cap, and a massive 4+% in small cap (after an already-monumental collapse from all time highs in small cap).
I have to hope that these indexes are indicating over-sold to the market movers.
On an unrelated note, when using Futures contracts, one should always have a plan in place. The swings in value make index fund pullbacks look like a walk in the park
I have to hope that these indexes are indicating over-sold to the market movers.
On an unrelated note, when using Futures contracts, one should always have a plan in place. The swings in value make index fund pullbacks look like a walk in the park
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Monday The most nervous one’s as always will start selling at the opening after seating in front of computers over the weekend glued to weekend nonsense , patient one’s will start buying at the close. When it comes to the market short term only God knows .
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"Stocks Rally As Covid Variant Fears Subside"
Or not.
During the Covid freakout last year, I was one of those who didn't stay the course. I learned my lesson. Not going to do anything but mechanically and stoically maintain my allocation weights when they get thrown too off kilter. That is all.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
AVUV (small-cap value) had an RBD on October 27 with its drop of 2.66% that day. Today AVUV was down more than 5% at one point.Crushtheturtle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:35 pm...and a massive 4+% in small cap (after an already-monumental collapse from all time highs in small cap).
Monday should be interesting for sure.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nervous Nellies in the media echo chamber will scare those with “paper hands” over the weekend.
The market will trade down at least 3% at some point on Monday. It will close down, but less than 3%.
You heard it here first.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I made a mistake , instead of” inflation” I wrote “infection “, I didn’t mean virus impact. I wanted to point on some talking heads on CNBC crying wolf regarding fed reserve and inflation. We had deflation for many decades and wished to have some inflation. Now when federal reserve has done and will do everything to save economy we see some professors like Siegel jumping the gun and trying to predict during unpredictable times.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:48 pmDeath by viral pandemic has been normal in the human condition since before our species arose and it has never gone away. HIV may kill 40 million before it is all said and done. Just 100 years ago a very similar pandemic, albeit a flu virus, occurred. This is a major economic issue however so I am not sure what you mean by hysterical, this could continue to hurt the economy in serious ways for years to come not to mention kill another 10 million people if it lasts 2-3 years.Ed 2 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:16 amWe are not in pandemic, it is combined pandemic and endemic. You can’t hedge against the mother of all bomb like this. Humanity never been in such scenario. The only thing I am glad stop hearing hysterical comments from talking heads like Jeremy Siegel and other Nostradamuses regarding raging infection , LOL.
By the way, crude down over 13% today! That is on the expectation of once again reduced activity and travel no doubt. That kind of move dwarfs a silly 2.5% drop in stocks.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't think the markets are being alarmist or irrational. When the US, Japan, UK, and EU nations cut off flights from the region and Pfizer and Moderna announce they are moving pronto on a new booster, the markets can see that there is a decent chance this variant of concern has legs.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:16 pmTell that to the markets, S&P500 down -2.3%, Small Caps down almost 4%.MadAsgardian wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:34 am It's cause for concern but this is unnecessarily alarmist.
While there are a lot of unknowns at this point, the fact is that it has been confirmed that the spike protein on this thing is very different and many experts have said that the efficacy of the current vaccines is in doubt. That is certainly cause for "alarm".
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thanks for sharing. I stayed the course last year thank god. However when things are going up it is so tempting to take on more risk like ditch the poorly performing bonds for stocks. I noticed that my bond values went up alot yesterday so there is the lesson in the power of diversity.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:42 pm"Stocks Rally As Covid Variant Fears Subside"
Or not.
During the Covid freakout last year, I was one of those who didn't stay the course. I learned my lesson. Not going to do anything but mechanically and stoically maintain my allocation weights when they get thrown too off kilter. That is all.
As an aside, markets didn't goo haywire when the delta variant hit the scene. We have a vaccine, it can be modified, booster shots are on the cards, variants have always been expected. Maybe this is the correction we had to have but it wont upend the global economy.
Last edited by Jaymover on Fri Nov 26, 2021 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep, same as every year since getting educated in 2013. This is TRP Science and Technology. They have sold a whole bunch of my investment in the last decade +. Very considerate of them to monkey with my tax planning like that. 100% of those proceeds are sent to Vanguard for total stock. It has been a wonderful investment over the years, but I know it was pure luck. I am playing with house money. I should post a screenshot at some point of my account balance. Good case study.
(The full story is that I TLH'd into it from a Janus fund in 2009, and have conveniently forgotten my true cost basis. So nice to be able to write my own narrative.)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Some perspective here. This thread is coming up on 500 pages (for more than a decade now), and the market has withstood what seems like countless setbacks all that time. So maybe this is an important milestone of sorts.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"Retail stocks rebound as black Friday and cyber Monday sales are expected to outpace _____"Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:42 pm"Stocks Rally As Covid Variant Fears Subside"
Or not.
During the Covid freakout last year, I was one of those who didn't stay the course. I learned my lesson. Not going to do anything but mechanically and stoically maintain my allocation weights when they get thrown too off kilter. That is all.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Let's see if we can nudge it over...
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
We're talking about why we're not talking about stocks.lazynovice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:55 pmAre y’all talking about stocks or your weight?UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:49 pmYep, that's my excuse, too.GoldenFinch wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:28 pm I stayed at the gym too long and missed the whole thing. A little dramatic point-wise, but not so much percentage-wise.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall [ SINCE 2011 ]
I now see that this is a Classic Post Subject.
It is like watching "It's a Wonderful Life" at Christmas time,
"The Ten Commandments" at Easter, or
"Psycho" at Halloween every year.
"U.S. stocks in free fall" is part of the normal season of investing.
We just never know when, how deep, or how long it will be
It is like watching "It's a Wonderful Life" at Christmas time,
"The Ten Commandments" at Easter, or
"Psycho" at Halloween every year.
"U.S. stocks in free fall" is part of the normal season of investing.
We just never know when, how deep, or how long it will be
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I predict that I will do nothing and get rewarded for it long term.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Getting ready to back up the truck. Staying the course.
Best.
Tony
Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Priceless!
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Reoccurring purchase happened yesterday. Not upset.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Monday. Predict vaccine and antiviral manufacturer stocks way up.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I love the BH philosophy. I didn't even know or care the markets were open on Friday.
Since my regularly scheduled beginning-of-month 403b contribution is coming up soon, a 2%+ decline has a nice silver lining.
Since my regularly scheduled beginning-of-month 403b contribution is coming up soon, a 2%+ decline has a nice silver lining.
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
As is lostdog and probably some others.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:15 pmYou two are a breath of fresh air in this thread. Meow
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I've been horrible lately, glued to my portfolio on Yahoo Finance, and obsessively, mindlessly reading the financial news, and I want desperately not to care, so those two I named are my heros for that reason.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:17 pmAs is lostdog and probably some others.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:15 pmYou two are a breath of fresh air in this thread. Meow
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I removed a post discussing epidemiology of the latest coronavirus variants. As a reminder, see: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Tune out the noise and do something else. Not worth the stress. Consider adjusting the AA if it feels too risky for your situation.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:24 pmI've been horrible lately, glued to my portfolio on Yahoo Finance, and obsessively, mindlessly reading the financial news, and I want desperately not to care, so those two I named are my heros for that reason.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:17 pmAs is lostdog and probably some others.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:15 pmYou two are a breath of fresh air in this thread. Meow
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Unless you are pulling out all of your net worth tomorrow, the drop in prices is short term noise and not actionable
You built up your portfolio over decades, you will deplete it over decades. And a lot of noise happens in between.
You built up your portfolio over decades, you will deplete it over decades. And a lot of noise happens in between.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Okay, thank you, I will. This will, sadly, include taking a bit of a vacation from this forum, but yeah, time for a mental health break.SuperTrooper87 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:53 pm Tune out the noise and do something else. Not worth the stress. Consider adjusting the AA if it feels too risky for your situation.
Well said. Thanks.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:01 pm Unless you are pulling out all of your net worth tomorrow, the drop in prices is short term noise and not actionable
You built up your portfolio over decades, you will deplete it over decades. And a lot of noise happens in between.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Markers go up and down. This is all normal stuff. Yep, tune it out! Let it so its thing. The downs are part of the long term upward trend.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:06 pmOkay, thank you, I will. This will, sadly, include taking a bit of a vacation from this forum, but yeah, time for a mental health break.SuperTrooper87 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:53 pm Tune out the noise and do something else. Not worth the stress. Consider adjusting the AA if it feels too risky for your situation.
Well said. Thanks.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:01 pm Unless you are pulling out all of your net worth tomorrow, the drop in prices is short term noise and not actionable
You built up your portfolio over decades, you will deplete it over decades. And a lot of noise happens in between.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thanks, I updated my sig.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:09 pmMarkers go up and down. This is all normal stuff. Yep, tune it out! Let it so its thing. The downs are part of the long term upward trend.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:06 pmOkay, thank you, I will. This will, sadly, include taking a bit of a vacation from this forum, but yeah, time for a mental health break.SuperTrooper87 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:53 pm Tune out the noise and do something else. Not worth the stress. Consider adjusting the AA if it feels too risky for your situation.
Well said. Thanks.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:01 pm Unless you are pulling out all of your net worth tomorrow, the drop in prices is short term noise and not actionable
You built up your portfolio over decades, you will deplete it over decades. And a lot of noise happens in between.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Variants, Inflation, High Valuations, Oh My!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm still 20 years or so from retirement, so maybe that helps a bit. The market will have a lot of ups and downs before I need the money.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:24 pmI've been horrible lately, glued to my portfolio on Yahoo Finance, and obsessively, mindlessly reading the financial news, and I want desperately not to care, so those two I named are my heros for that reason.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:17 pmAs is lostdog and probably some others.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:15 pmYou two are a breath of fresh air in this thread. Meow
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Would you be willing to share a few more details about what you did last year? What, why, if/how you re-entered the market, changed your AA, etc. I'm trying to compile all the posts from people who pulled out, changed AA, etc. due to the coronus crash.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:42 pm During the Covid freakout last year, I was one of those who didn't stay the course. I learned my lesson. Not going to do anything but mechanically and stoically maintain my allocation weights when they get thrown too off kilter. That is all.
Already impartial now...and you have a nice day.