+1Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:18 amWhat kind of drop? This is just the market doing what it does. A long-term 10% or whatever return is not earned without volatility along the way. We haven't even had a 5% drop all year. Do you realize how rare that is?
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Last edited by fatcoffeedrinker on Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Didn't take long. Russell 2000 back in the green already. If lostdog makes it to the gym, good chance the others will close green too.lostdog wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:28 am+1Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:18 amWhat kind of drop? This is just the market doing what it does. A long-term 10% or whatever return is not earned without volatility along the way. We haven't even had a 5% drop all year. Do you realize how rare that is?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
VIX up 37%! I should’ve bought me some of that Vietnamese International Index!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Russell 2k is 2.2% down.anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:35 amDidn't take long. Russell 2000 back in the green already. If lostdog makes it to the gym, good chance the others will close green too.lostdog wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:28 am+1Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:18 amWhat kind of drop? This is just the market doing what it does. A long-term 10% or whatever return is not earned without volatility along the way. We haven't even had a 5% drop all year. Do you realize how rare that is?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A glitch in yahoo finance for me.YRT70 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:41 amRussell 2k is 2.2% down.anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:35 amDidn't take long. Russell 2000 back in the green already. If lostdog makes it to the gym, good chance the others will close green too.lostdog wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:28 am+1Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:18 amWhat kind of drop? This is just the market doing what it does. A long-term 10% or whatever return is not earned without volatility along the way. We haven't even had a 5% drop all year. Do you realize how rare that is?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Now we're really falling! No more of this slow bleed.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, no one who with a position in equities should be surprised by this. The market has doubled in 5 years on the backs of the Fed and TINA.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't see much difference with VXUS (International) at -2% and VTI (Total U.S.) at -1.8%. (Although maybe when you posted it was different.) I am actually hoping for some more pullback over the next month or so...,
Last edited by e5116 on Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:49 am, edited 3 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
today's movement is not extraordinary. Actually, a 15-20% down tick would be healthy for the longer term.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I see -1.94%.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:50 amAs of this writing, I see VXUS -2.5%. Ex-US would go down harder as the epicenter is China Evergrande.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't own VXUS, but VEA is -2.2% and VWO is -3.1%. VTI is down 1.6%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Oh I see what's happening. The ^VXUS index is -2.5%, VXUS ETF is -1.9%...because of the timezone difference, it gaps like this quite often.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:51 amI see -1.94%.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:50 amAs of this writing, I see VXUS -2.5%. Ex-US would go down harder as the epicenter is China Evergrande.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Can you explain this further? Not sure I follow. Thanks!Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:56 amOh I see what's happening. The ^VXUS index is -2.5%, VXUS ETF is -1.9%...because of the timezone difference, it gaps like this quite often.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:51 amI see -1.94%.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:50 amAs of this writing, I see VXUS -2.5%. Ex-US would go down harder as the epicenter is China Evergrande.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That assumes there is some credibility left given your prior track record.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Just another day in the market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't think anybody is questioning your credibility as a macro forecaster.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We've already had, in 2021, four days of 600+ point losses. One of those was over 700 points. And I'm sure we all remember March 2020. What is so special about today?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Doubling in 5 years is very good performance, but it only represents a CAGR of 14.9%. The long term historic CAGR is in the 10-11% range, so we are not looking at a huge deviation.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's a 40-50% increase over the average return. I'd say it's a big deviation over that period.
Last edited by runninginvestor on Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:41 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, it's a glitch in Yahoo Finance.
They have https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVXUS?p=%5EVXUS and https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXUS?p=VXUS
and about 2 months ago YF started displaying ^VXUS when you type VXUS into the ticker window.
Looking carefully now, I don't know why these percentages diverge so much between the two. My *guess* is that ^VXUS settles sometime AH not 4 pm ET, but I haven't studied ^VXUS long enough to confirm that.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
agree; I'm old enough to remember being fully invested on a day that saw a 22% drop in a single day; that was a bit exciting but things bounced back pretty quickly after that as I recall.Tom_T wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:03 amWe've already had, in 2021, four days of 600+ point losses. One of those was over 700 points. And I'm sure we all remember March 2020. What is so special about today?
Stay hydrated; don't sweat the small stuff
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The 9%-10% average return INCLUDES all the crashes and the decade long low return years.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return.
Doubling in 4-5 years (or even less) happens ALL THE TIME, all the way back to the 1890s... It's absolutely normal.
The average return of 9%-10% exists BECAUSE of all the occasional 15% years matched up with the occasional -20% or -30% crash years.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think the lesson of 2020 is that it can't REALLY REALLY be a RBD anymore without tripping a circuit breaker...Tom_T wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:03 amWe've already had, in 2021, four days of 600+ point losses. One of those was over 700 points. And I'm sure we all remember March 2020. What is so special about today?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Exactly. We shouldn't really expect 5 year periods where we get a nice clean 9-10% CAGR and we absolutely not not expect single years at 9-10%.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:18 amThe 9%-10% average return INCLUDES all the crashes and the decade long low return years.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return.
Doubling in 4-5 years (or even less) happens ALL THE TIME, all the way back to the 1890s... It's absolutely normal.
The average return of 9%-10% exists BECAUSE of all the occasional 15% years matched up with the occasional -20% or -30% crash years.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Agree.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return. I'd say it's a big deviation over that period.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Wrong. That's twice now you've implied the last 5 years are an historical anomaly.namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:54 amAgree.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return. I'd say it's a big deviation over that period.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
We've seen the stock market double in 4-5 years (or less) before the Fed even existed, and certainly before Quantitative Easing began in 2008.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Make that three times. The markets are insanely valued. They could drop 50% from here and still be considered overvalued.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:55 amWrong. That's twice now you've implied the last 5 years are an historical anomaly.namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:54 amAgree.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return. I'd say it's a big deviation over that period.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Related to the red phrase above.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:12 amWell, it's a glitch in Yahoo Finance.
They have https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVXUS?p=%5EVXUS and https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXUS?p=VXUS
and about 2 months ago YF started displaying ^VXUS when you type VXUS into the ticker window.
Looking carefully now, I don't know why these percentages diverge so much between the two. My *guess* is that ^VXUS settles sometime AH not 4 pm ET, but I haven't studied ^VXUS long enough to confirm that.
I've discovered that if you use the main search box (Search for news, symbols or companies) at the top of the screen instead of the search box on the right hand side of the screen (Quote Lookup) you can avoid the annoying preceding symbol (^) and get to the result you really seek.
Regards,
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Lol, you are dead wrong.namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:56 amMake that three times. The markets are insanely valued. They could drop 50% from here and still be considered overvalued.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:55 amWrong. That's twice now you've implied the last 5 years are an historical anomaly.namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:54 amAgree.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return. I'd say it's a big deviation over that period.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thank you, this is good to know. I don't comprehend why YF made the change they did, seems like a bad feature to me.retired@50 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:59 am Related to the red phrase above.
I've discovered that if you use the main search box (Search for news, symbols or companies) at the top of the screen instead of the search box on the right hand side of the screen (Quote Lookup) you can avoid the annoying preceding symbol (^) and get to the result you really seek.
Regards,
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's a completely different discussion than "Look, the market has doubled in 5 years! That's crazy!"namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:56 amMake that three times. The markets are insanely valued. They could drop 50% from here and still be considered overvalued.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:55 amWrong. That's twice now you've implied the last 5 years are an historical anomaly.namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:54 amAgree.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return. I'd say it's a big deviation over that period.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Depends what you consider anomalous. >15% 5-year returns happen about 30% of the time.namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:56 amMake that three times. The markets are insanely valued. They could drop 50% from here and still be considered overvalued.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:55 amWrong. That's twice now you've implied the last 5 years are an historical anomaly.namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:54 amAgree.runninginvestor wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:06 amThat's a 40-50% increase over the average return. I'd say it's a big deviation over that period.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
VTI is not even down 4.5% from ATH. Gimme MORE red!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Maybe indexes all close green today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't understand the difference between VXUS and ^VXUS.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:03 amThank you, this is good to know. I don't comprehend why YF made the change they did, seems like a bad feature to me.retired@50 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:59 am Related to the red phrase above.
I've discovered that if you use the main search box (Search for news, symbols or companies) at the top of the screen instead of the search box on the right hand side of the screen (Quote Lookup) you can avoid the annoying preceding symbol (^) and get to the result you really seek.
Regards,
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Happy to see extended duration treasuries showing that negative correlation I bought them for.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
^VXUS (indicative value) is how much VXUS (the ETF) is supposed to trade at. VXUS is the market price of the ETF.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:43 am I don't understand the difference between VXUS and ^VXUS.
We're seeing discrepancies (presumably) because ^VXUS does not settle at 4 pm like the ETF does as far as tracking daily percentage moves. ^VXUS has to settle at some time of the day but I don't know what time.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
How close are we to a Really Bad Day (RBD)?
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Down over 2%. What is he definition of RBD?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If you look at a daily chart of the market and see the size of the red candle, you don't have to wonder if this is an "RBD."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
what goes down must come up
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
From the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms
RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not a RBD just yet: https://www.gebele.com/charts-and-graphs/rbd-alerts
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Just set either a weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly contribution schedule and you're set. I wouldn't try and time the market by guessing when you should buy the dip. Perhaps today is the dip, or tomorrow, next week, or next month.Drolen wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:05 pm
Ahhh. But Do I DCA a bit every day or wait?? I just can't bear the suspense of how much to buy, and when....
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.