U.S. stocks in free fall

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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

SPX hit -1% at one point, quite a big drop for a day.
Whakamole
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Whakamole »

investorpeter wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:59 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:51 pm Can anyone explain whats causing this drop. [Expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] I just bought 300k car and wonder if i should cancel and wait for price to drop.
I would guess that it's a combination of 1) gains harvesting in anticipation of capital gains tax increase in new tax proposal, 2) debt ceiling concerns, 3) we just hit new highs a couple of weeks ago so normal pullback, 4) delta variant problems, 5) approaching fed tapering. So in other words, the same old wall of worry that we have been climbing to new highs for the past year. Nothing to see here.
Inflation can't be helping either.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

This month has just been a long, boring decline
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

Whakamole wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:56 pm
investorpeter wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:59 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:51 pm Can anyone explain whats causing this drop. [Expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] I just bought 300k car and wonder if i should cancel and wait for price to drop.
I would guess that it's a combination of 1) gains harvesting in anticipation of capital gains tax increase in new tax proposal, 2) debt ceiling concerns, 3) we just hit new highs a couple of weeks ago so normal pullback, 4) delta variant problems, 5) approaching fed tapering. So in other words, the same old wall of worry that we have been climbing to new highs for the past year. Nothing to see here.
Inflation can't be helping either.
As far as I can tell, all of the above was either known, or at least considered, prior to "this drop", so the causative relationships are unclear.

That being said, I'd focus on #3.

Definition of correction: "the action or process of correcting something". Who's against that?
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:17 pm This month has just been a long, boring decline
You wanted what... a short, exciting decline? Fasten your seat belts!

As with roller coasters, the ride is there to be enjoyed. Cheers...
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pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:26 pm When is the last time we had a 2% increase or decrease in the S&P 500 or total market in a day? It seems like it's been so boring lately.
5/12/2021 for VTI. Happened twice before that this year on 01/27 and 02/25. Totaling 12 days where VTI went down more than 1% in 2021.

Will today be the 13th?
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:17 pm This month has just been a long, boring decline
It is september so...
Visitor76
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Visitor76 »

jarjarM wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:30 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:17 pm This month has just been a long, boring decline
It is september so...
Exactly, and it's right on time... just wait till October gets here. All I can say is DCA over the next two months.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Visitor76 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:36 pm
jarjarM wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:30 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:17 pm This month has just been a long, boring decline
It is september so...
Exactly, and it's right on time... just wait till October gets here. All I can say is DCA over the next two months.
Just want to share this, from Yardeni. TLDR. September, bad...

Image
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

September is the self-rebalancing month.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Look out below. You might only make a real return of 10% in equities this year. :)

And still better than bonds. :shock:
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:45 pm Look out below. You might only make a real return of 10% in equities this year. :)

And still better than bonds. :shock:
A real return of 10% seems great to me, what's your expectation? :shock:
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:45 pm Look out below. You might only make a real return of 10% in equities this year. :)

And still better than bonds. :shock:
A real return of 10% seems great to me, what's your expectation? :shock:
I'm expectation is 6-7% nominal. So I'm super happy so far this year.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

rockstar wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:50 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:45 pm Look out below. You might only make a real return of 10% in equities this year. :)

And still better than bonds. :shock:
A real return of 10% seems great to me, what's your expectation? :shock:
I'm expectation is 6-7% nominal. So I'm super happy so far this year.
Helps to relativise, doesn't it? You made me curious and I went to check my YTD performance at Fidelity, and so far I'm at 13.6% in 401(k) and 12.75% for non-workplace accounts (Brokerage, Roth IRA and HSA). Not bad at all!

I wish Vanguard would get their act together and give the YTD performance, but hey. Guess it's too hard 🤷🏻‍♀️
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

pasadena wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:53 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:50 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:45 pm Look out below. You might only make a real return of 10% in equities this year. :)

And still better than bonds. :shock:
A real return of 10% seems great to me, what's your expectation? :shock:
I'm expectation is 6-7% nominal. So I'm super happy so far this year.
Helps to relativise, doesn't it? You made me curious and I went to check my YTD performance at Fidelity, and so far I'm at 13.6% in 401(k) and 12.75% for non-workplace accounts (Brokerage, Roth IRA and HSA). Not bad at all!

I wish Vanguard would get their act together and give the YTD performance, but hey. Guess it's too hard 🤷🏻‍♀️
I'm at roughly 18% in my brokerage accounts and 19% in my 401k. I'm a happy camper.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

5 year trendline closely aligns with SPX 4000...

Image
csmath
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by csmath »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:55 am 5 year trendline closely aligns with SPX 4000...

Image
Interesting y-axis. Applying linear modeling to exponential curves I see!
Blue456
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Blue456 »

Why are futures - 1.25%?
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:04 pm Why are futures - 1.25%?
I'm not sure. I often notice futures trade lower than the SPX, but not by -1.23%...I guess the traders were bearish for reasons unknown. Maybe it had to do with the Quad Witching Friday, perhaps.

Lots of traders are cautious of the FOMC rates decision & presser on Wednesday as well.
clip651
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clip651 »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:04 pm Why are futures - 1.25%?
Better question - why are you looking at futures on Saturday, when markets don't even open again until Monday? And even when looking at futures shortly before the open, they often don't accurately predict what the market will do that day, anyway, so again, why bother looking at futures?
Silk McCue
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silk McCue »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:04 pm Why are futures - 1.25%?
Futures aren’t open now.
The majority of futures contracts start trading Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern time and close on Friday afternoon between 4:30 and 5 p.m. Eastern, depending on the commodity.
The numbers you are seeing are from Friday.

Cheers
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Silk McCue wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:56 pm
Blue456 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:04 pm Why are futures - 1.25%?
Futures aren’t open now.
The majority of futures contracts start trading Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern time and close on Friday afternoon between 4:30 and 5 p.m. Eastern, depending on the commodity.
The numbers you are seeing are from Friday.

Cheers
That's what they talk about though...how the futures closed -1.25% on Friday evening. No one said it is trading right now.
Silk McCue
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silk McCue »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:58 pm
Silk McCue wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:56 pm
Blue456 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:04 pm Why are futures - 1.25%?
Futures aren’t open now.
The majority of futures contracts start trading Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern time and close on Friday afternoon between 4:30 and 5 p.m. Eastern, depending on the commodity.
The numbers you are seeing are from Friday.

Cheers
That's what they talk about though...how the futures closed -1.25% on Friday evening. No one said it is trading right now.
Sorry but you don’t know that Blue456 knows that.

I’m just trying to educate. Believe it or not a vast majority of folks don’t know that.

Cheers
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Silk McCue wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:10 pm Sorry but you don’t know that Blue456 knows that.

I’m just trying to educate. Believe it or not a vast majority of folks don’t know that.

Cheers
Fair point, I don't know that they know that. I'm glad we both do :beer
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

csmath wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:03 am Interesting y-axis. Applying linear modeling to exponential curves I see!
but CNBC does this all the time ... :D
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Hang Seng -3% already and taking SPX futures down -0.6%...Nikkei appears closed due to their holiday.

FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser on Wednesday.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

SPX futures down almost a percent.. looks like finally we are going to have this correction
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:14 pm SPX futures down almost a percent.. looks like finally we are going to have this correction
Yeah, Hang Seng -4% now due to the Evergrande situation, taking SPX futures down bigly.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Looks.like.a rough day tomorrow.
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clown
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clown »

My friend the realtor says "the only two dates that matter are the day you buy and the day you sell." Fixating on interim gyrations is a poor use of time. Who cares unless you intend to sell??
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

Stock futures not looking good. Dow futures down 329, S&P 500 futures down 33.75, and the NAZZ futures down 91.75. Should be an interesting day tomorrow.
A fool and his money are good for business.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Big sea of red today. Hold on tight.
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Ed 2
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

lostdog wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:33 am Big sea of red today. Hold on tight.
Hold on tight ? Why? Not even RBD in my world !! We didn’t have 5% pullback for months. Oh my G. The world is ending)) Lol. People get a grip.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

Looks legit in RBD territory for a few exchanges, but amazingly the Nikkei 225 is up. Can't believe China, which rules over its corporations with a heavy hand, can't be counted on to bail out a company too big to fail. How can they be more ruthless than the US government on this question?
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Sigz
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Sigz »

Ouch gonna be a bad day.
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morsk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:11 am Looks legit in RBD territory for a few exchanges, but amazingly the Nikkei 225 is up. Can't believe China, which rules over its corporations with a heavy hand, can't be counted on to bail out a company too big to fail. How can they be more ruthless than the US government on this question?
Nikkei is not up -- you are looking at Friday's quote. Their markets were closed Monday.
Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:07 pm
Lots of traders are cautious of the FOMC rates decision & presser on Wednesday as well.
Oh lovely another presser! What's Powell going to talk about this time? How he and his buddies were front running the same securities the Fed were buying and making millions off of it? Yeah I doubt it, but I'm sure he'll reassure the boomers that the Fed will continue their plunder for a few more years
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

morsk wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:32 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:11 am Looks legit in RBD territory for a few exchanges, but amazingly the Nikkei 225 is up. Can't believe China, which rules over its corporations with a heavy hand, can't be counted on to bail out a company too big to fail. How can they be more ruthless than the US government on this question?
Nikkei is not up -- you are looking at Friday's quote. Their markets were closed Monday.
Marseille07 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:07 pm
Lots of traders are cautious of the FOMC rates decision & presser on Wednesday as well.
Oh lovely another presser! What's Powell going to talk about this time? How he and his buddies were front running the same securities the Fed were buying and making millions off of it? Yeah I doubt it, but I'm sure he'll reassure the boomers that the Fed will continue their plunder for a few more years
Thanks for pointing that out, I see they are around -2% now. Everything is down except for the VIX stock exchange which is up an incredible 8% today, what country is that?
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runninginvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by runninginvestor »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:36 am Thanks for pointing that out, I see they are around -2% now. Everything is down except for the VIX stock exchange which is up an incredible 8% today, what country is that?
VIX is the volatility index
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morsk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:36 am
Thanks for pointing that out, I see they are around -2% now.

I am not sure I can muster the same anger that they held bonds in their personal accounts. Did it really impact their choices at all? If they can't hold stocks or bonds, are they supposed to just have giant bank accounts?
Bruh they were actively trading futures and other derivatives and buying munis moments before the Fed went in for the mega-buys on those securities. If they were just contributing to their VTSAX positions that they've held on for 30 years, nobody would care. But they were actively trading millions of dollars from their personal accounts, executing several dozens of trade a week, netting them millions in profit. Yeah, DEFINITELY not impacted by the decisions they were making behind the scenes. Give me a break...
gonefishing01
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gonefishing01 »

Ed 2 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:41 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:33 am Big sea of red today. Hold on tight.
Hold on tight ? Why? Not even RBD in my world !! We didn’t have 5% pullback for months. Oh my G. The world is ending)) Lol. People get a grip.
Seriously. Not even meaningful TLH opportunities yet. We’ve all been spoiled this year with the relentless climb.

I’m still optimistic we’ll see more new ATH before the end of the year. :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

morsk wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:42 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:36 am
Thanks for pointing that out, I see they are around -2% now.

I am not sure I can muster the same anger that they held bonds in their personal accounts. Did it really impact their choices at all? If they can't hold stocks or bonds, are they supposed to just have giant bank accounts?
Bruh they were actively trading futures and other derivatives and buying munis moments before the Fed went in for the mega-buys on those securities. If they were just contributing to their VTSAX positions that they've held on for 30 years, nobody would care. But they were actively trading millions of dollars from their personal accounts, executing several dozens of trade a week, netting them millions in profit. Yeah, DEFINITELY not impacted by the decisions they were making behind the scenes. Give me a break...
Powell, who you name in your first post, was merely holding bonds he purchased well before the pandemic and they account for a small amount of his net worth. Maybe it is the actions of Boston and Dallas fed presidents who were actively trading stocks (not the bonds in question) during this time that you are describing. Who was buying munis moments before the Fed announced their mega-buys?
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squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

Oh whoopee, market down a whole 600 points after being up 20000...
Hold on tight? For what???
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Phyneas »

Not everyone invested 20000 points ago, some people lump-summed in last week, last month, two months ago et cetera. Doesn't change the fact that they shouldn't sell, but it's easier to say 'Don't sell' when you have a 20% gain runway keeping you in the green. Not everyone has that luxury psychologically.
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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop »

This market is so over leveraged, it cannot tolerate this kind of drop. Either this gets bought up before the close or we may need some bills to pass real quick to reverse this.
bugleheadd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bugleheadd »

the dip will be bought
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

If it drops only another 38% to 48% Forester will be proven correct!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:54 am This market is so over leveraged, it cannot tolerate this kind of drop. Either this gets bought up before the close or we may need some bills to pass real quick to reverse this.
What kind of drop? This is just the market doing what it does. A long-term 10% or whatever return is not earned without volatility along the way. We haven't even had a 5% drop all year. Do you realize how rare that is?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by muffins14 »

anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:54 am This market is so over leveraged, it cannot tolerate this kind of drop. Either this gets bought up before the close or we may need some bills to pass real quick to reverse this.
Unlikely
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nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

Remember when up or down 500 was HUGE?

Hmmm. Maybe I’m just old.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

muffins14 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:21 am
anoop wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:54 am This market is so over leveraged, it cannot tolerate this kind of drop. Either this gets bought up before the close or we may need some bills to pass real quick to reverse this.
Unlikely
LOL, after Archegos maybe not as unlikely as once believed …
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

1998 - Russia, LTCM
1999/2000 - Dotcom peak

2021 - China, Evergrande
2022 - YOLO/StocksOnlyGoUp peak

A 2022 top vs a Q4 2021 top would call into question my credibility as a macro forecaster.
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