U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Hahahahaha How Can The Fed Taper When They Accept More Than $1 Trillion In Reverse Repo Ops From 70 To 90 Bidders On A Daily Basis???
Hahahaha
(No seriously though, how can they?)
Besides, boomers are just 70 years old now...they need a few more years of easy living the good life. The wreck will come after
Hahahaha
(No seriously though, how can they?)
Besides, boomers are just 70 years old now...they need a few more years of easy living the good life. The wreck will come after
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And.. It's back flat again
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Can we get a proper correction going? I really wanna trigger my rebalance threshold.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think cresting of delta maybe built in to the current pricing but infrastructure and its sister bill may or may not be. My crystal ball is quite cloudy and looks like the market is also lack of direction today.greenway23 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:31 pmI’m thinking in the near future we’ll have an infrastructure bill signed into law and hopefully a cresting of delta cases. Both of those should provide some boosts.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I thought this is mostly taper-talk driven, stemming from the FOMC minutes released yesterday followed by Chair Powell's presser.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But seems like bond market is behaving a bit differently and bond yield actually dropped. 10 year is now down to 1.245%. Weird.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:49 pmI thought this is mostly taper-talk driven, stemming from the FOMC minutes released yesterday followed by Chair Powell's presser.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The bond market has been crazy for some time though. It used to be that they demand more yields than inflation, but for whatever reason they seem happy taking 1.2% and knowingly losing vs inflation. I don't hold bonds and I don't understand their thought process if they have one.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is a perennial surprise to many people, but it shouldn't be a surprise.
When expectations for future inflation abate (aka tapering implies less inflation pressures), then rates go lower.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Hmm, interesting point, haven't really thought about that but actually quite logical. Thanksretiringwhen wrote: ↑Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:11 pmThis is a perennial surprise to many people, but it shouldn't be a surprise.
When expectations for future inflation abate (aka tapering implies less inflation pressures), then rates go lower.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Predicting another meltdown in the final trading hour.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not gonna happen.
“Bargain hunters” will rally the market to a positive day.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We still have many Greek alphabet names left to go through however. Everything is all fun and games until the omicron variant hits.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
- Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Calling for Variant Pi to crest on 3/14.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Small Caps got hammered again today, well, hoping everything will eventually balance itself out...
S&P 500 Forward PE: 21 (vs 15.5 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward PE: 16.1 (vs 19 Historical Median)
S&P 500 Forward Price to Sales: 2.79 (vs 1.4 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward Price to Sales: 1.09 (vs 1.1 Historical Median)
Source: Yardeni
Undervalued Small Caps are becoming even more undervalued due to flight out to Large... follow the herd mentality I guess.
Looks like everyone is going Tech FOMO and driving the S&P 500 to new bubble heights. Nobody wants to touch the historically undervalued sectors. I think that is very typical of bubbles.
S&P 500 Forward PE: 21 (vs 15.5 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward PE: 16.1 (vs 19 Historical Median)
S&P 500 Forward Price to Sales: 2.79 (vs 1.4 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward Price to Sales: 1.09 (vs 1.1 Historical Median)
Source: Yardeni
Undervalued Small Caps are becoming even more undervalued due to flight out to Large... follow the herd mentality I guess.
Looks like everyone is going Tech FOMO and driving the S&P 500 to new bubble heights. Nobody wants to touch the historically undervalued sectors. I think that is very typical of bubbles.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think similar situation happened before dot com bust as well. Valuation for S&p600 forward PE ratio was trending downward from 97 til 99 but it rode out that bear market quite well.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:03 pm Small Caps got hammered again today, well, hoping everything will eventually balance itself out...
S&P 500 Forward PE: 21 (vs 15.5 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward PE: 16.1 (vs 19 Historical Median)
S&P 500 Forward Price to Sales: 2.79 (vs 1.4 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward Price to Sales: 1.09 (vs 1.1 Historical Median)
Source: Yardeni
Undervalued Small Caps are becoming even more undervalued due to flight out to Large... follow the herd mentality I guess.
Looks like everyone is going Tech FOMO and driving the S&P 500 to new bubble heights. Nobody wants to touch the historically undervalued sectors. I think that is very typical of bubbles.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Agreed.. it will be a while before valuations actually matter. My taxable portfolio is taking a big hit because it is highly Diversified between small-caps International and bonds - all of which are which have gone nowhere in the last few months... however my 401k is skyrocketing to the Moon because it is mostly in large cqps.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not trying to call you out specifically, but down days or dips always feel like the start of something more, until they’re not. There will be many more days where this exact feeling crops up again, and at some point, it will portend something more but we should remember all the other times where it ended up being a big old none event.
It’s just another reminder to me that nobody knows nothing and feelings are often wrong.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep. For people who watch stocks every day and worry about the gyrations (I watch but don't worry) they should ignore it and only check their portfolio value once a month or even once per quarter.calvin+hobbes wrote: ↑Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:23 amNot trying to call you out specifically, but down days or dips always feel like the start of something more, until they’re not. There will be many more days where this exact feeling crops up again, and at some point, it will portend something more but we should remember all the other times where it ended up being a big old none event.
It’s just another reminder to me that nobody knows nothing and feelings are often wrong.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A decent pullback here, let's buy the hole created by Jackson Hole!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You think 0.58% is a "decent pullback"?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here, let's buy the hole created by Jackson Hole!
Are you putting your "dry powder" in the market based on this?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think not. Wake me up at -50%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No I'm just not interested in any little dips from current asset values.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:07 pmWth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Jackson Hole underway and Chair Powell speaking at 10 am ET on Friday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The s&p is above where it was a week ago.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That’s a good oneMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:07 pmWth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A wise man said, don't just do something, stand there.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's because you are not a pension fund, insurance company, government agency, or foreign government. Plenty of buyers do have to buy bonds regularly and they can't be as choosy as we are. But we are, and so I personally don't think bond funds offer enough compensation for their volatility right now. Holding something with a possible downside of 6-8% in exchange for 1.2% yield? Not interested when alternatives exist.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:56 pmThe bond market has been crazy for some time though. It used to be that they demand more yields than inflation, but for whatever reason they seem happy taking 1.2% and knowingly losing vs inflation. I don't hold bonds and I don't understand their thought process if they have one.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not many listening wise people. We still trying to be Warren Buffett and market timing aka “ rebalancing “HanSolo wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:55 amA wise man said, don't just do something, stand there.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Today feels like the start of a dip
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- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We wuz warned.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Where have I heard that before? Ok, I remember.
Sooner or later someone will get it right.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And in August, and October. Oh, and also November, and 2022.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:19 pmAnother poster already called a crash starting mid-September.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not even crickets.
Interesting.
Interesting.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So today is a red day... I keep reminding myself that it's a GOOD thing because I have my biggest contribution of the year coming soon...
Guess it's a "don't look" day!
Guess it's a "don't look" day!
Last edited by pasadena on Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nothing really to look at or act on today. Not a RBD. Just taking us sideways. Nothing to get excited about.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Market doubled in 5 years because of Fed and TINA. It's likely to be a long, slow grind lower as Fed stops backstopping and TINA loses her appeal.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
who is tina?
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
- dodecahedron
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I feel like that kid who was left out in school :]
Code: Select all
TINA loses her appeal
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And before that the 1930'sMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:07 pmWth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
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