U.S. stocks in free fall

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morsk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

Hahahahaha How Can The Fed Taper When They Accept More Than $1 Trillion In Reverse Repo Ops From 70 To 90 Bidders On A Daily Basis???

Hahahaha

(No seriously though, how can they?)

Besides, boomers are just 70 years old now...they need a few more years of easy living the good life. The wreck will come after :)
smalliebigs
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by smalliebigs »

And.. It's back flat again
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

Can we get a proper correction going? I really wanna trigger my rebalance threshold.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

greenway23 wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:31 pm
jarjarM wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:45 pm Looks like we'll stuck here at S&P500 ~4400, range bound for the rest of the quarter until some more economic news or concrete fed actions. At least, that's my view, of course crystal ball is in the shop so who knows. :wink:
I’m thinking in the near future we’ll have an infrastructure bill signed into law and hopefully a cresting of delta cases. Both of those should provide some boosts.
I think cresting of delta maybe built in to the current pricing but infrastructure and its sister bill may or may not be. My crystal ball is quite cloudy and looks like the market is also lack of direction today. :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:48 pm I think cresting of delta maybe built in to the current pricing but infrastructure and its sister bill may or may not be. My crystal ball is quite cloudy and looks like the market is also lack of direction today. :oops:
I thought this is mostly taper-talk driven, stemming from the FOMC minutes released yesterday followed by Chair Powell's presser.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:49 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:48 pm I think cresting of delta maybe built in to the current pricing but infrastructure and its sister bill may or may not be. My crystal ball is quite cloudy and looks like the market is also lack of direction today. :oops:
I thought this is mostly taper-talk driven, stemming from the FOMC minutes released yesterday followed by Chair Powell's presser.
But seems like bond market is behaving a bit differently and bond yield actually dropped. 10 year is now down to 1.245%. Weird.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:53 pm But seems like bond market is behaving a bit differently and bond yield actually dropped. 10 year is now down to 1.245%. Weird.
The bond market has been crazy for some time though. It used to be that they demand more yields than inflation, but for whatever reason they seem happy taking 1.2% and knowingly losing vs inflation. I don't hold bonds and I don't understand their thought process if they have one.
retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:53 pm But seems like bond market is behaving a bit differently and bond yield actually dropped. 10 year is now down to 1.245%. Weird.
This is a perennial surprise to many people, but it shouldn't be a surprise.

When expectations for future inflation abate (aka tapering implies less inflation pressures), then rates go lower.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

retiringwhen wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:11 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:53 pm But seems like bond market is behaving a bit differently and bond yield actually dropped. 10 year is now down to 1.245%. Weird.
This is a perennial surprise to many people, but it shouldn't be a surprise.

When expectations for future inflation abate (aka tapering implies less inflation pressures), then rates go lower.
Hmm, interesting point, haven't really thought about that but actually quite logical. Thanks :beer
greenway23
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by greenway23 »

Predicting another meltdown in the final trading hour.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

greenway23 wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:38 pm Predicting another meltdown in the final trading hour.
Not gonna happen.

“Bargain hunters” will rally the market to a positive day.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
gonefishing01
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gonefishing01 »

Stinky wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 2:07 pm
greenway23 wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:38 pm Predicting another meltdown in the final trading hour.
Not gonna happen.

“Bargain hunters” will rally the market to a positive day.
Right on cue! Ex-US is still firmly in the toilet, though.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pokebowl »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:48 pm
I think cresting of delta maybe built in to the current pricing but infrastructure and its sister bill may or may not be. My crystal ball is quite cloudy and looks like the market is also lack of direction today. :oops:
We still have many Greek alphabet names left to go through however. Everything is all fun and games until the omicron variant hits. :mrgreen:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Stinky wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 2:07 pm
greenway23 wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:38 pm Predicting another meltdown in the final trading hour.
Not gonna happen.

“Bargain hunters” will rally the market to a positive day.
Just barely but still a positive day :beer
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

pokebowl wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 3:15 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:48 pm
I think cresting of delta maybe built in to the current pricing but infrastructure and its sister bill may or may not be. My crystal ball is quite cloudy and looks like the market is also lack of direction today. :oops:
We still have many Greek alphabet names left to go through however. Everything is all fun and games until the omicron variant hits. :mrgreen:
I hope not, but i'm selling everything at psi :twisted:
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

Calling for Variant Pi to crest on 3/14.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Small Caps got hammered again today, well, hoping everything will eventually balance itself out...

S&P 500 Forward PE: 21 (vs 15.5 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward PE: 16.1 (vs 19 Historical Median)

S&P 500 Forward Price to Sales: 2.79 (vs 1.4 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward Price to Sales: 1.09 (vs 1.1 Historical Median)

Source: Yardeni

Undervalued Small Caps are becoming even more undervalued due to flight out to Large... follow the herd mentality I guess.

Looks like everyone is going Tech FOMO and driving the S&P 500 to new bubble heights. Nobody wants to touch the historically undervalued sectors. I think that is very typical of bubbles.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:03 pm Small Caps got hammered again today, well, hoping everything will eventually balance itself out...

S&P 500 Forward PE: 21 (vs 15.5 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward PE: 16.1 (vs 19 Historical Median)

S&P 500 Forward Price to Sales: 2.79 (vs 1.4 Historical Median)
S&P 600 Small Cap Forward Price to Sales: 1.09 (vs 1.1 Historical Median)

Source: Yardeni

Undervalued Small Caps are becoming even more undervalued due to flight out to Large... follow the herd mentality I guess.

Looks like everyone is going Tech FOMO and driving the S&P 500 to new bubble heights. Nobody wants to touch the historically undervalued sectors. I think that is very typical of bubbles.
I think similar situation happened before dot com bust as well. Valuation for S&p600 forward PE ratio was trending downward from 97 til 99 but it rode out that bear market quite well.
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stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Agreed.. it will be a while before valuations actually matter. My taxable portfolio is taking a big hit because it is highly Diversified between small-caps International and bonds - all of which are which have gone nowhere in the last few months... however my 401k is skyrocketing to the Moon because it is mostly in large cqps.
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FlatSix
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by FlatSix »

namajones wrote: Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:51 am This one feels like the start of something more than a blip.
Not trying to call you out specifically, but down days or dips always feel like the start of something more, until they’re not. There will be many more days where this exact feeling crops up again, and at some point, it will portend something more but we should remember all the other times where it ended up being a big old none event.

It’s just another reminder to me that nobody knows nothing and feelings are often wrong.
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

calvin+hobbes wrote: Tue Aug 24, 2021 10:23 am
namajones wrote: Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:51 am This one feels like the start of something more than a blip.
Not trying to call you out specifically, but down days or dips always feel like the start of something more, until they’re not. There will be many more days where this exact feeling crops up again, and at some point, it will portend something more but we should remember all the other times where it ended up being a big old none event.

It’s just another reminder to me that nobody knows nothing and feelings are often wrong.
Yep. For people who watch stocks every day and worry about the gyrations (I watch but don't worry) they should ignore it and only check their portfolio value once a month or even once per quarter.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

A decent pullback here, let's buy the hole created by Jackson Hole!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here, let's buy the hole created by Jackson Hole!
You think 0.58% is a "decent pullback"?
Are you putting your "dry powder" in the market based on this?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here
I think not. Wake me up at -50%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

000 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:01 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here
I think not. Wake me up at -50%.
Wth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:07 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:01 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here
I think not. Wake me up at -50%.
Wth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
No I'm just not interested in any little dips from current asset values.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Jackson Hole underway and Chair Powell speaking at 10 am ET on Friday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by placeholder »

The s&p is above where it was a week ago.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:07 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:01 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here
I think not. Wake me up at -50%.
Wth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
That’s a good one ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

Ed 2 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:03 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:07 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:01 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here
I think not. Wake me up at -50%.
Wth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
That’s a good one
A wise man said, don't just do something, stand there.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:56 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:53 pm But seems like bond market is behaving a bit differently and bond yield actually dropped. 10 year is now down to 1.245%. Weird.
The bond market has been crazy for some time though. It used to be that they demand more yields than inflation, but for whatever reason they seem happy taking 1.2% and knowingly losing vs inflation. I don't hold bonds and I don't understand their thought process if they have one.
That's because you are not a pension fund, insurance company, government agency, or foreign government. Plenty of buyers do have to buy bonds regularly and they can't be as choosy as we are. But we are, and so I personally don't think bond funds offer enough compensation for their volatility right now. Holding something with a possible downside of 6-8% in exchange for 1.2% yield? Not interested when alternatives exist.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Ed 2
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ed 2 »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:55 am
Ed 2 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:03 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:07 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:01 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here
I think not. Wake me up at -50%.
Wth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
That’s a good one
A wise man said, don't just do something, stand there.
Not many listening wise people. We still trying to be Warren Buffett and market timing aka “ rebalancing “
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Today feels like the start of a dip
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Vtsax100 »

newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:09 pm Today feels like the start of a dip
How so?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:09 pm Today feels like the start of a dip
Oh excellent. We can buy the shares cheaper.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

We wuz warned.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Vtsax100 wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:44 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:09 pm Today feels like the start of a dip
How so?
Im a part time psychic
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Candor »

newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:09 pm Today feels like the start of a dip
Where have I heard that before? Ok, I remember.
namajones wrote: Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:51 am This one feels like the start of something more than a blip.
Sooner or later someone will get it right.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 4:57 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:44 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:09 pm Today feels like the start of a dip
How so?
Im a part time psychic
Another poster already called a crash starting mid-September.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:19 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 4:57 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:44 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:09 pm Today feels like the start of a dip
How so?
Im a part time psychic
Another poster already called a crash starting mid-September.
And in August, and October. Oh, and also November, and 2022.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

Not even crickets.

Interesting.
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pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

So today is a red day... I keep reminding myself that it's a GOOD thing because I have my biggest contribution of the year coming soon...

Guess it's a "don't look" day!
Last edited by pasadena on Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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jason2459
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

Nothing really to look at or act on today. Not a RBD. Just taking us sideways. Nothing to get excited about.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by namajones »

Market doubled in 5 years because of Fed and TINA. It's likely to be a long, slow grind lower as Fed stops backstopping and TINA loses her appeal.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ray.james »

namajones wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:40 pm Market doubled in 5 years because of Fed and TINA. It's likely to be a long, slow grind lower as Fed stops backstopping and TINA loses her appeal.
who is tina?
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by namajones »

ray.james wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:45 pm
namajones wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:40 pm Market doubled in 5 years because of Fed and TINA. It's likely to be a long, slow grind lower as Fed stops backstopping and TINA loses her appeal.
who is tina?
Girl I knew in high school.
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dodecahedron
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dodecahedron »

ray.james wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:45 pm
namajones wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:40 pm Market doubled in 5 years because of Fed and TINA. It's likely to be a long, slow grind lower as Fed stops backstopping and TINA loses her appeal.
who is tina?
TINA="There Is No Alternative"
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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ray.james »

dodecahedron wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:49 pm
ray.james wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:45 pm
namajones wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:40 pm Market doubled in 5 years because of Fed and TINA. It's likely to be a long, slow grind lower as Fed stops backstopping and TINA loses her appeal.
who is tina?
TINA="There Is No Alternative"
namajones wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:48 pm
ray.james wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:45 pm
namajones wrote: Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:40 pm Market doubled in 5 years because of Fed and TINA. It's likely to be a long, slow grind lower as Fed stops backstopping and TINA loses her appeal.
who is tina?
Girl I knew in high school.
I feel like that kid who was left out in school :]

Code: Select all

TINA loses her appeal
I thought that meant something else entirely :D
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Ramjet
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ramjet »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:07 pm
000 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:01 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:06 pm A decent pullback here
I think not. Wake me up at -50%.
Wth...by that logic you've been sleeping since 2008.
And before that the 1930's
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RyeBourbon »

newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 4:57 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:44 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:09 pm Today feels like the start of a dip
How so?
Im a part time psychic
Which part?
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