It has broke the 200 day moving average. So has the Nasdaq.Elysium wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:49 pm What bad days? we haven't even reached correction territory on S&P 500 yet, wait until it crosses 200 day average on the down then the real bad days will begin. Your portfolio should be designed with this in mind, so that when these eventual drawdowns happen we know what we're expected to do. Consider the past 10-12 years a gift and especially the last 3 years as bonus on top. Market isn't expected to average 16% per annum as it did since 2012. We are going to give back some of it and earn the averages over long periods. Market timing is impossible, otherwise we could all just sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.
U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
- peskypesky
- Posts: 1023
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep. Inflation hedge maybe only in a country like Zimbabwe, Venezuela or Turkey.AlphaLess wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:12 pm Bye-bye the argument that crypto is an inflation hedge.
Inflation is up to 7%, and crypto is down 38%.
Actually, thinking about it: I have not found a single thing that crypto is good for.
Especially bitcoin.
In fact, the total value added by bitcoin to society is probably VERY negative (let's exclude crypto paper billionaires and millionaires).
And its status as a "store of value" akin to gold is very questionable now.
It's still a young asset, so who knows where it will be in 30 years. But right now....I'm not sold.
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
okay then hang on to the seat of your pants.ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:06 pmIt has broke the 200 day moving average.Elysium wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:49 pm What bad days? we haven't even reached correction territory on S&P 500 yet, wait until it crosses 200 day average on the down then the real bad days will begin. Your portfolio should be designed with this in mind, so that when these eventual drawdowns happen we know what we're expected to do. Consider the past 10-12 years a gift and especially the last 3 years as bonus on top. Market isn't expected to average 16% per annum as it did since 2012. We are going to give back some of it and earn the averages over long periods. Market timing is impossible, otherwise we could all just sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.
Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Meh. I'd rather buy stocks when they are cheaper, which I will be doing next pay day.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Starting to get into bad day territory. No real catalyst other than some known factors. There is a bit of uncertainty with geopolitical stuff which is putting some investors on edge. Markets will probably continue on a downward trend for a while. But who knows Good time to invest extra cash or rebalance.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Hope he is incorrect. But Nasdaq might drop that much. Going down quick.Elysium wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pmokay then hang on to the seat of your pants.ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:06 pmIt has broke the 200 day moving average.Elysium wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:49 pm What bad days? we haven't even reached correction territory on S&P 500 yet, wait until it crosses 200 day average on the down then the real bad days will begin. Your portfolio should be designed with this in mind, so that when these eventual drawdowns happen we know what we're expected to do. Consider the past 10-12 years a gift and especially the last 3 years as bonus on top. Market isn't expected to average 16% per annum as it did since 2012. We are going to give back some of it and earn the averages over long periods. Market timing is impossible, otherwise we could all just sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.
Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's what my 401k is doing.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
This is nothing out of the ordinary. It'll test some individual asset allocations. It's easy to be 100% equities with the flood tide. It's harder with the ebb.
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Jeremy "Broken Clock" Grantham? Really?
There is no free lunch.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Great idea!RubyTuesday wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:33 pmWith your keen insight into future market moves, why didn’t you trust yourself and go really big short?peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:43 amget used to the falling. It's going to happen for much of 2022 if the Fed sticks to its plan to raise interest rates and pull back on QE.
I have some dry powder! Probably around $90k cash sitting in my IRA's now. But I'm not buying for a while. I think market will continue dropping.
This is why I started selling stocks (especially growth/tech) and all my crypto in late December and first week of January. I knew it would be good to have cash for depreciated stocks.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Three years ago, in their 2019 Economic and Market Outlook Report, Vanguard forecast that U.S. equities would have a return of 3-5% over the next 10 years. A lot of people seemed to nod calmly and state that this made sense. Returns have obviously been far greater than that. If a market decline pulls returns closer to that level, perhaps we are just getting what was reasonable in the first place.
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
This is how you get back to those returns. If you buy at a high valuation and hold, you can guarantee a lower return. Of course, it's all relative to rates.frugalecon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:22 pm Three years ago, in their 2019 Economic and Market Outlook Report, Vanguard forecast that U.S. equities would have a return of 3-5% over the next 10 years. A lot of people seemed to nod calmly and state that this made sense. Returns have obviously been far greater than that. If a market decline pulls returns closer to that level, perhaps we are just getting what was reasonable in the first place.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
I guess this is where AA matters. We retired a couple of years ago with a 50/50 AA. It still hurts to see things drop.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Just funded my backdoor Roth for dw and I today. Vemax/vwo/emerging markets to infinity and beyond!!
“At some point you are trading time you will never get back for money you will never spend.“ |
“How do you want to spend the best remaining year of your life?“
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Yes, and it has DECISIVELY broken the 200 DMA today, I think the market has spoken that the previous sentiment is over. I am not worried, long term these things will sort out just like they have hundreds of times before, but for discussion we are in turbulent territory, at least that is what I think. I am anticipating a up to 20% decline in the current trend similar to the Dec 2018 17.5% pullback.ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:06 pm It has broke the 200 day moving average. So has the Nasdaq.
I agree with Tom Lee, I think our gains are going to come in the 2nd half of 2022, the first half is going to be a mess.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Gold is up. Real estate is up. Buy hard assets.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
I have a small section on our net worth spreadsheet where I run a quick calculation to show what our net worth would be if I snapped my fingers and saw stocks drop 50 percent. That figure isn't really as bad as one would think, largely because of all the other non-stock assets that we own. This includes bonds, I bonds, liquid cash, home equity and pension withdraw values.
Every dollar we have invested in stocks is earmarked for long-term (15+ years) so sell offs don't bother me too much. It's mostly just an additional opportunity to buy cheaper stocks. So long as our jobs maintain stability, daily life marches on as normal.
Every dollar we have invested in stocks is earmarked for long-term (15+ years) so sell offs don't bother me too much. It's mostly just an additional opportunity to buy cheaper stocks. So long as our jobs maintain stability, daily life marches on as normal.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Has he ever been objectively correct? And not just in a “blind pig finds an acorn” way? Any dramatic decline he predicted having come to pass in anything resembling a reasonable time period?Elysium wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
havent looked at my accounts for at least 2 weeks now. i can roughly guess what its value is
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
I just reported what he said, everyone here knows about Grantham and his permanent negative outlook for US Equities and his love for EM value stocks. I don't act based upon forecasts or time the market, but I do pay attention to my AA and risk control, just so we are ready when the inevitable drop happens, which I believe we are due for one because a lot of investor have forgotten what risk look like.TropikThunder wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:20 pmHas he ever been objectively correct? And not just in a “blind pig finds an acorn” way? Any dramatic decline he predicted having come to pass in anything resembling a reasonable time period?Elysium wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
- blaugranamd
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Ignore. The. Noise.
Seriously, stop looking at your portfolio.
Go drink a beer
Seriously, stop looking at your portfolio.
Go drink a beer
-- Don't mistake more funds for more diversity: Total Int'l + Total Market = 7k to 10k stocks -- |
-- Market return does NOT = average nor 50th percentile, rather 80-90th percentile long term ---
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
My portfolio is still pretty much in balance, so I can’t see that there’s any call to panic. Markets can be tough on the uninitiated. Just try and relax.
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
We are far FAR from "free fall"..... If your having issues with a few points then rethink you risk profile before something really happens...
|
Rob |
Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
We all remember our greenhorn days Welcome to the party!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pmYup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.PowderDay9 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You might even have to change your usernameUpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
- ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
and you'll accumulate stocks with what money? You've likely lost your job and possibly other prized belongings. Money may be so scarce that you need to ration simply to survive and eat day-to-day in a "full-on depression". Lets be a bit more realistic and considerate...peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pmYup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.PowderDay9 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Last edited by ReformedSpender on Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:56 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I for one would agree with a ban on any post celebrating downturns. Let's make it happen.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I can appreciate how you feel. Your AA should already account for this potential downturn based on your specific financial situation.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pmI wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pmYup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.PowderDay9 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Cheers
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
8.6% drop in the S&P 500 since the 4,813.23 high on January 4. I'm in my early 50s and feel that my 50/50 AA is about right. Keep on keeping on.
- sf_tech_saver
- Posts: 448
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
I sense some buying opportunities for the next year or two as the interest rate changes shake out.
While you can't time the market you can certainly try to be esp thrifty on your savings rate when the market is under its 200++ day averages to the downside. I plan on tightening the belt as much as possible as long as we are headed mostly down!
Buying consistently and maximally through the corrections is where we really add value to the market as investors. Let's go....
While you can't time the market you can certainly try to be esp thrifty on your savings rate when the market is under its 200++ day averages to the downside. I plan on tightening the belt as much as possible as long as we are headed mostly down!
Buying consistently and maximally through the corrections is where we really add value to the market as investors. Let's go....
VTI is a modern marvel
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year. Stay with equity for long term.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
I understand how you feel, but...
Why would it matter if your see the full recovery or not? By now you'd be 60+% on bonds, no? If not, clearly you had the capacity to take risks of such market conditions.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
- quantAndHold
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You can talk to people like that until you turn purple, but they always have to learn not to be concentrated in their own employer…by experience. Every time. And sometimes, they still don’t learn.HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:30 amUgh... didn't you warn him??stoptothink wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:27 amthe majority of his NW is tied up in the company. Been crazy watching the life just drain out of him over the last handful of months.
(I know, I know... touchy subject with family, especially in-laws)
Fortunately this guy is young. I’ve known people in their 50’s who did that.
- arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
I merged an_asker's thread into the ongoing discussion. Let's stick to a single free fall thread for each asset class - stocks and bonds.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
+1UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pmI wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pmYup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.PowderDay9 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
All this time I was reading it as Upper Northwest Guy. I thought he lived in the Northwest!000 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:50 pmYou might even have to change your usernameUpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'll guess 15%...flyingaway wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
This is sourced from twitter.
https://twitter.com/gostr84ward/status/ ... 3958685696
There were 20 stock market drops of more than 10% from 1946 through 2015.
12 saw losses greater than 20%.
5 saw losses greater than 30%.
2 saw losses greater than 40%.
1 saw losses greater than 50%.
Each $1 invested in the SP 500 grew to $1,100 over this period.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Yes, that's the sad truth about cash. If you move to cash you expose yourself to an unknown amount of inflation risk. Inflation could conceivably be high for several years, maybe along the lines of three years of 7%, 7%, 7%, or four years of 5%, 5%, 5%, 5%. (See Jeremy Siegel prediction in article below.) And yes, the Fed could raise rates a lot, but still be far below inflation.WhiteMaxima wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:06 pm Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year. Stay with equity for long term.
article link
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I thought the same thing.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:42 pmAll this time I was reading it as Upper Northwest Guy. I thought he lived in the Northwest!000 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:50 pmYou might even have to change your usernameUpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Cash is dry power, you fire cash when you see the market bottom (hopefully).Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:44 pmYes, that's the sad truth about cash. If you move to cash you expose yourself to an unknown amount of inflation risk. Inflation could conceivably be high for several years, maybe along the lines of three years of 7%, 7%, 7%, or four years of 5%, 5%, 5%, 5%. (See Jeremy Siegel prediction in article below.) And yes, the Fed could raise rates a lot, but still be far below inflation.WhiteMaxima wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:06 pm Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year. Stay with equity for long term.
article link
- arcticpineapplecorp.
- Posts: 15081
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Another market timing guru?Elysium wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:11 pm okay then hang on to the seat of your pants.
Jeremy Grantham thinks $35 trillion of value will be wiped off in the coming bursting of "superbubble" where 50% of S&P 500 will be lost.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... -50-2022-1
Where do you think Grantham lies in this pie chart:
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My guess is VTI 212.flyingaway wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
Last edited by 000 on Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Put me down for -20%. And no quick pop back like the ‘rona crash.flyingaway wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 pm Is there anyone who wants to guess what will be the bottom of this downturn? Would it be -10%, -15%, or -20%?
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I say we bounce back Tuesday and for the rest of the week after another drop Monday. I think once a particular geopolitical issue I will not name resolves, there will be relief. Of course I have no idea, just a guess.
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Re: Portfolio in free fall (I know I am not alone)
Holding a lot of cash waiting for a crash runs the risk of waiting and waiting and waiting while inflation eats away at it. There's also the risk of missing the bottom. I missed the bottom last year, I thought the market would go way lower. I thought when it started rising, it was a dead cat bounce.flyingaway wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:47 pmCash is dry power, you fire cash when you see the market bottom (hopefully).Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:44 pmYes, that's the sad truth about cash. If you move to cash you expose yourself to an unknown amount of inflation risk. Inflation could conceivably be high for several years, maybe along the lines of three years of 7%, 7%, 7%, or four years of 5%, 5%, 5%, 5%. (See Jeremy Siegel prediction in article below.) And yes, the Fed could raise rates a lot, but still be far below inflation.WhiteMaxima wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:06 pm Cash is losing 7% purhasing power every year. Stay with equity for long term.
article link
Personally, I'm approximately 65% TIPS, 25% stocks, 10% cash. I can aggressively rebalance into stocks to maintain my allocation.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
UpperNwGuy,UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm
I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.
I am prepared to last long enough until it no longer matter. If the downturn last long enough, it won't be a money problem. So, why should it (money) matters?
I am being very pragmatic.
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
As someone who lives in the DC area, I assumed he live in Upper Northwest DC. (Like the North Cleveland Park, Chevy Chase, Tenleytown, AU Park area.) Hey @UpperNWGuy, which hypothesis is correct?AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:42 pmAll this time I was reading it as Upper Northwest Guy. I thought he lived in the Northwest!000 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:50 pmYou might even have to change your usernameUpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:47 pm I wish you younger folk would stop posting these comments celebrating the downturns. Some of us are older and are no longer in the early accumulation phase. The downturns are painful to us because we may not live long enough to see the full recovery.