Jimsad wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:33 amI always keep a reserve and buy dips with 0.5 % of my portfolio .Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 amJimsad:
You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes
Best wishes.
TaylorJack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time."
99.5 % of my portfolio is still invested as per my allocation mostly in passive index funds
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
- arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
few thoughts:
1. you can't always have a reserve if you then use that reserve to buy stocks when there's a dip. Otherwise, you're reserve will go to zero and then you will need to replenish your reserve.
2. if you say "well I'll just take some of my new earnings and replenish my reserve quickly" you're market timing because you have money that you will eventually invest (just not right now) when the next dip comes.
3. have you calculated how much more you could have had if you had invested the money instead of keeping this market timing reserve? You think you're doing better because you have cash to buy stocks on sale, but it's also possible that you would have done better had that money been invested earlier (i.e., even when NOT on sale), for two reasons:
A. even investing what seems like a high point might still be a low point compared to where stocks are at in the future,
B. you're missing out on compounding interest you could be earning while that reserve is sitting in cash earning nothing, yet waiting to be deployed.
it's good that you have a plan (IPS) and are sticking to it. But the problem is most people have a defined cash allocation. It's not for the purpose of investing, it's for liquidity purposes. That's not what this cash reserve is. You have a market timing allocation. You have money you want to invest, but you're not investing it until stocks fall somewhat.
Q: When do I buy?
A: When you have the money.
Q: When do I sell?
A: When you need the money.
If you just stick to that, you don't have to worry about buying stocks that are on sale 1.94% (S&P 500 as of 12:47 ET). Is that kind of discount really going to be life changing in the long run??
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
I bought some Total Market ETF shares (ITOT) in my taxable today
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I bought some AVUV and AVDV today
80% global equities (faith-based tilt) + 20% TIPS (LDI)
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
You need a graph software like Finviz to track the price
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VTI
If the VTI price is below a 50 Simple Moving Average and headed to 200 SMA then it is a buy signal, of course one has to be patient and buy like on Oct 4, 2021 which the price was sitting at 100 SMA but did not go further to 200 SMA.
Likewise if the price of VTI is above 50 SMA and way above 200 SMA and above 20 SMA, that is a SELL signal if you desire to harvest gains.
Market timing is not that complicated, disclosure I am NOT A DAY Trader, however this was used last year March 23, 2020 as a measure of the bottom.
The moving averages is reliable indicator for market timers.
It is better for lump sum than DCA, the later are usually for accumulators, the bigger purchase the bigger the gains.
This approach is a hybrid of passive investing with market timing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3Ulu0jZCJI&t=42s
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sma.asp
good luck
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Good day to buy small caps today. IWM Russell 2000 is down 4%.
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
OP
use this chart app
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
type in vti and toggle weekly>update you shall see the price going down to 200 SMA line.
use this chart app
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
type in vti and toggle weekly>update you shall see the price going down to 200 SMA line.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I tax loss harvested international today. I’ve lost count how many times in 2021 I have TLH’d international but at least 5 times. I’ve owned VEU, VXUS, IXUS, IDEV, SPDW and now IXUS again. We’ll see if I wished I waited on Monday.ChinchillaWhiplash wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:19 am It looks like all stocks are in a free fall. Not just US. Guessing International and EM will be hit the hardest, but who knows
Last edited by lazynovice on Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
When this thread gets active, it really gets active!
Falling knives everywhere. Too many to catch. I think it will be easier to try to catch one when there are fewer to try to focus on. Meanwhile, I'll sit back and enjoy the revival of this thread as it's my true comfort zone.
Falling knives everywhere. Too many to catch. I think it will be easier to try to catch one when there are fewer to try to focus on. Meanwhile, I'll sit back and enjoy the revival of this thread as it's my true comfort zone.
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Not buying. I was a few percent high on stocks as I hadn't hit a rebalancing point in that direction. Unless there is a much bigger loss I won't hit on the low side either.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Officially the new variant is called Big O omicron by the WHO.
- MN-Investor
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
I don't have any cash sitting on the sidelines at the moment, so I'm just staying the course.
I did have $117.9K uninvested last month and used it to buy more shares in my favorite company whose stock had taken a quick dip. That stock, even with today's drop, is worth $130.5K today.
I did have $117.9K uninvested last month and used it to buy more shares in my favorite company whose stock had taken a quick dip. That stock, even with today's drop, is worth $130.5K today.
The key to success - Save early, save often, invest well.
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
No. That would be market timing. I mean sure naturally if I have the funds.
- TomatoTomahto
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
I just happened to have $800 in my settlement fund, so bought VTIAX. Not a strategic or tactical move, just housekeeping.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not true! My bonds were on fire today.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:04 pm When this thread gets active, it really gets active!
Falling knives everywhere. Too many to catch. I think it will be easier to try to catch one when there are fewer to try to focus on. Meanwhile, I'll sit back and enjoy the revival of this thread as it's my true comfort zone.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It is so nice not to care anymore.....
Woof
Woof
Unless you try to do something beyond what you have already mastered you will never grow. (Ralph Waldo Emerson)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The good news for me is I no longer need to rebalance for a bit (perhaps) longer.
And, LT and IT treasuries popped up some.
All in all, not the best or worst day I have experienced in the market.
We only need one more distribution from our TIRAs this year, I'm sure something will catch my eye. Maybe I'll sell some of the CGs on my LT treasury bond fund.
Broken Manb 1999
And, LT and IT treasuries popped up some.
All in all, not the best or worst day I have experienced in the market.
We only need one more distribution from our TIRAs this year, I'm sure something will catch my eye. Maybe I'll sell some of the CGs on my LT treasury bond fund.
Broken Manb 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go." - Mark Twain
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What is going on???
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Not changing plans, but staying the course and tuning out noise. My AA in my IPS reflects my risk tolerance. Not doing anything different. Continuing my plan of gradually upping my equity exposure but no purchases or sales will be as a reaction to this news.
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
No, I'm already significantly under-weight in bonds since I typically rebalance in January. I don't keep uninvested cash lying around just in case the market drops 2%. The market is still up over the last 30 days. Why didn't you buy 30 days ago? It's a larger daily drop than normal but 2% ain't a discount.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
I stayed at the gym too long and missed the whole thing. A little dramatic point-wise, but not so much percentage-wise.
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
If you buy on the dip today, you won't have .5% remaining to buy if there is a dip on Monday (or Tuesday, etc.) What will you do then?Jimsad wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:33 amI always keep a reserve and buy dips with 0.5 % of my portfolio .Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 amJimsad:
You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes
Best wishes.
TaylorJack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time."
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
I accumulate cash into my reserve fund and deploy it every few months on days like thisKyleAAA wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:26 pm No, I'm already significantly under-weight in bonds since I typically rebalance in January. I don't keep uninvested cash lying around just in case the market drops 2%. The market is still up over the last 30 days. Why didn't you buy 30 days ago? It's a larger daily drop than normal but 2% ain't a discount.
Relieves the boredom of passive investing
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
You win some and lose sometibbitts wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:34 pmIf you buy on the dip today, you won't have .5% remaining to buy if there is a dip on Monday (or Tuesday, etc.) What will you do then?Jimsad wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:33 amI always keep a reserve and buy dips with 0.5 % of my portfolio .Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 amJimsad:
You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes
Best wishes.
TaylorJack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time."
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
FWIW, all the US stock funds I own are still higher today than 30 days ago.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Yep, that's my excuse, too.GoldenFinch wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:28 pm I stayed at the gym too long and missed the whole thing. A little dramatic point-wise, but not so much percentage-wise.
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Are y’all talking about stocks or your weight?UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:49 pmYep, that's my excuse, too.GoldenFinch wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:28 pm I stayed at the gym too long and missed the whole thing. A little dramatic point-wise, but not so much percentage-wise.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No, you didn't know. But we believe that you think you did.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:11 amwrong. i knew.marcopolo wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:09 amNo reason to kick yourself.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:53 am ugh. tapering talk hits futures.
I'm kicking myself because I knew this was coming.
You didn't know. You had some vague notion that was too imprecise to act upon. Now in hindsight you have deluded yourself into thinking that you knew.
You were also very confident here on the morning of March 25th, two days after the bottom:
peskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:20 am I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet.
peskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:41 pm As I've written before, more than once, there's no way we can be at the bottom with the amount of denial and delusion that you find even here, on a forum where most people are literate and fairly well-informed.
Just today, the US surged with 10,000 new cases and took third place in the world...and some people think the worst is behind us?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So the globe’s top scientists gathered today, concluded it was “of concern”, named it Omicron, and wrapped for chicken nuggets? Expect more free falling.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guess that double top signal we recently talked about is true this time. Going to drink some more eggnog.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Wow, we've become spoiled.
Broad markets were down a couple percent. Who cares?!
Broad markets were down a couple percent. Who cares?!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
They skipped a letter in the Greek alphabet: https://web.mit.edu/jmorzins/www/greek-alphabet.htmlKookaburra wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:59 pm So the globe’s top scientists gathered today, concluded it was “of concern”, named it Omicron, and wrapped for chicken nuggets? Expect more free falling.
Tax loss harvesting for international was nice today.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think everyone was just selling stocks today to pay for their Black Friday purchases.
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Do you have to run out to buy an ETF? I just use my laptop.dukeblue219 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:02 amDo you run out to buy milk when the store is having a 3% off sale? I don't... but if it's my regular day to buy groceries I appreciate the savings.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The market wants to correct but even with today's bad numbers we still aren't far from all-time highs.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
So if you buy today with the .5% of your portfolio and the market (S&P 500) goes back up to even on Monday you will make a little over $100 for every million in your portfolio. It hardly seems worth the effort. Maybe you have other plans?Jimsad wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:33 amI always keep a reserve and buy dips with 0.5 % of my portfolio .Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 amJimsad:
You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes
Best wishes.
TaylorJack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time."
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
There's an opportunity cost to that.Jimsad wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:33 amI always keep a reserve and buy dips with 0.5 % of my portfolio .Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 amJimsad:
You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes
Best wishes.
TaylorJack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time."
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Cool! I hope mine are too--won't know until after the close.lazynovice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:19 pmNot true! My bonds were on fire today.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:04 pm When this thread gets active, it really gets active!
Falling knives everywhere. Too many to catch. I think it will be easier to try to catch one when there are fewer to try to focus on. Meanwhile, I'll sit back and enjoy the revival of this thread as it's my true comfort zone.
I trimmed my allocation of stocks a couple of percentage points last weeks for re-balancing. Not enough really to move the needle, but if the market keeps going down, I'll have a bit more to buy back with when I tire of sitting on my hands again.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I was joking a little bit. My bonds were up about .75%. Nothing to write home about, but some green on the screen at least.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:33 pmCool! I hope mine are too--won't know until after the close.lazynovice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:19 pmNot true! My bonds were on fire today.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:04 pm When this thread gets active, it really gets active!
Falling knives everywhere. Too many to catch. I think it will be easier to try to catch one when there are fewer to try to focus on. Meanwhile, I'll sit back and enjoy the revival of this thread as it's my true comfort zone.
I trimmed my allocation of stocks a couple of percentage points last weeks for re-balancing. Not enough really to move the needle, but if the market keeps going down, I'll have a bit more to buy back with when I tire of sitting on my hands again.
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Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Haha! I was playing pickle ball, so point-wise, I guess it was a down day for me all around…lazynovice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:55 pmAre y’all talking about stocks or your weight?UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:49 pmYep, that's my excuse, too.GoldenFinch wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:28 pm I stayed at the gym too long and missed the whole thing. A little dramatic point-wise, but not so much percentage-wise.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
For the bond haters, who think it's all about the little to no interest income:
If you had 50% in the SnP and 50% in LTTs your portfolio value would have gone up today.
SnP: -2.23%
TLT: +2.53%
If you had 50% in the SnP and 50% in LTTs your portfolio value would have gone up today.
SnP: -2.23%
TLT: +2.53%
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Do people do 50% LTTs? Looking at Vineviz's suggested bond duration glidepath link the largest allocation to LTTs would be 25% to an extended duration bond fund, e.g EDV.
The Permanent Portfolio also has a 25% LTT allocation.
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
A lot of little decisions like this made over a long period of time can make a big difference, particular if you are following a good discipline.Candor wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:13 pmSo if you buy today with the .5% of your portfolio and the market (S&P 500) goes back up to even on Monday you will make a little over $100 for every million in your portfolio. It hardly seems worth the effort. Maybe you have other plans?Jimsad wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:33 amI always keep a reserve and buy dips with 0.5 % of my portfolio .Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 amJimsad:
You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes
Best wishes.
TaylorJack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time."
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: I am buying today . Anybody else ?
Not really. You can make less each time as well.nedsaid wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:48 pmA lot of little decisions like this made over a long period of time can make a big difference, particular if you are following a good discipline.Candor wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:13 pmSo if you buy today with the .5% of your portfolio and the market (S&P 500) goes back up to even on Monday you will make a little over $100 for every million in your portfolio. It hardly seems worth the effort. Maybe you have other plans?Jimsad wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:33 amI always keep a reserve and buy dips with 0.5 % of my portfolio .Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:59 amJimsad:
You sound like a market-timer which is usually a mistake:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes
Best wishes.
TaylorJack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "I've said, 'Stay-the-course' a thousand times, and I meant it every time."
If you wait to buy, the market goes up 5%, and then drops 2%, you actually made less than just investing as soon as you got it.
Doesn't matter how disciplined you are. It's a dice roll. And since the market is usually going up slightly more than down, it's a bad dice roll.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Tell that to the markets, S&P500 down -2.3%, Small Caps down almost 4%.MadAsgardian wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:34 am It's cause for concern but this is unnecessarily alarmist.
While there are a lot of unknowns at this point, the fact is that it has been confirmed that the spike protein on this thing is very different and many experts have said that the efficacy of the current vaccines is in doubt. That is certainly cause for "alarm".
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
On the other hand, that portfolio is roughly inline with the original HEDGEFUNDIE portfolio (40% 3x S&P/60% 3x LTT).Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:44 pm Do people do 50% LTTs? Looking at Vineviz's suggested bond duration glidepath link the largest allocation to LTTs would be 25% to an extended duration bond fund, e.g EDV.
The Permanent Portfolio also has a 25% LTT allocation.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.