U.S. stocks in free fall

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am
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by am »

namajones wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:38 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:36 am Hoping international will save the day :D
Unlikely, as the world (and markets) are highly interdependent these days.

Sometimes, your best position is cash. Don't ever let anyone tell you there's no value in cash in a portfolio.
Why do you say that unlikely international will save the day? The us and international markets have had widely divergent returns- diversification working at its best!

Would you be surprised if US underperforms for 10-20 years and international outperforms? Then I bet we’ll see a bunch of 100% international threads claiming how US is overvalued, tech dependent, etc.
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baconavocado
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by baconavocado »

Just yesterday I was getting that funny feeling I always get when October approaches.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluemnatra »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:15 am
namajones wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:38 am
am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:36 am Hoping international will save the day :D
Unlikely, as the world (and markets) are highly interdependent these days.

Sometimes, your best position is cash. Don't ever let anyone tell you there's no value in cash in a portfolio.
Why do you say that unlikely international will save the day? The us and international markets have had widely divergent returns- diversification working at its best!

Would you be surprised if US underperforms for 10-20 years and international outperforms? Then I bet we’ll see a bunch of 100% international threads claiming how US is overvalued, tech dependent, etc.
Is that International saving the day for you? :-P
"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan"
occambogle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by occambogle »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:15 am Why do you say that unlikely international will save the day? The us and international markets have had widely divergent returns- diversification working at its best!
Longer term maybe... but today, currently:
VOO -1.80
VTI -1.84
VXUS -2.01
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Portfolio7 »

am wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:17 am Don’t understand why it so worrisome that the 10 yr treasury moves from really low to a bit higher and we have a nasdaq and market sell off?

My guess is some active managers of large funds trying to market time.
From what I've picked up, higher rates are bad for Tech/growth, good for Value (esp energy and financials). I suspect many algorithms out there automatically reposition somewhat from growth to value when rates rise.

Also, higher rates are generically bad for profits, so as a whole, stocks are worth slightly less. I suspect this is built into the algorithms too.

In light of those two things, today kinda makes sense, with the market down, but growth taking it on the chin while value declines are relatively modest.

The value camp has seen some big gains this year, and so maybe the patience of value investors will pay off in the next few years, we'll see. Doesn't much matter to me as I've tried to ensure my accounts are roughly equally balanced between value and growth.
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stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

A September to Remember... :D :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

A bad month in the markets, and it's raining in Seattle. A normal September :)
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pokebowl
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pokebowl »

I've found turning the computer screen upside down helps a little.
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Candor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Candor »

pokebowl wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:04 am I've found turning the computer screen upside down helps a little.

Turn that frown upside down.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:53 am A September to Remember... :D :shock:
I bet 2 dollars and fifty cents that no one will remember this September in a few years.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken »

It actually looks worse upside-down. Steady decline for all of past year.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

H-Town wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:44 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:53 am A September to Remember... :D :shock:
I bet 2 dollars and fifty cents that no one will remember this September in a few years.
Yep. Down 3.8% in a month (assuming today's losses hold to month's end) is hardly a memorable month in the stock market. September 2008- THAT was a memorable month in the market, and I didn't even have anything invested at that time. S&P fell over 20% that month with no end in sight for the turmoil. September 2001 was also memorable. This? People will barely remember next year, let alone a decade from now.
retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:53 am A September to Remember... :D :shock:
We haven't even seen a 5% drop in SEP. To paraphrase Tom Petty's wife, "It's just the normal noises around here".
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
It's a hedge against the US falling down. However, it opens up for other risks such as China & Evergrande.
chem6022
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by chem6022 »

An everything is down day. I wonder where the money went.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RetiredAL »

retiringwhen wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:21 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:53 am A September to Remember... :D :shock:
We haven't even seen a 5% drop in SEP. To paraphrase Tom Petty's wife, "It's just the normal noises around here".
+1 to retiringwhen.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:59 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
It's a hedge against the US falling down. However, it opens up for other risks such as China & Evergrande.
I hold ex-US at market weight. But, is there much recent evidence that when the US falls down, the ex-US provides a good hedge? It seems that as globalization has increased, so has the correlation between the markets. Maybe that is just recency bias.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:34 pm I hold ex-US at market weight. But, is there much recent evidence that when the US falls down, the ex-US provides a good hedge? It seems that as globalization has increased, so has the correlation between the markets. Maybe that is just recency bias.
Depends on how recent is recent. The ex-US proponents often talk about the ex-US outperformance between 2002~2008.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:38 pm
marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:34 pm I hold ex-US at market weight. But, is there much recent evidence that when the US falls down, the ex-US provides a good hedge? It seems that as globalization has increased, so has the correlation between the markets. Maybe that is just recency bias.
Depends on how recent is recent. The ex-US proponents often talk about the ex-US outperformance between 2002~2008.
US markets also did reasonably well in those periods, the out performance was nice, but not really a hedge. A hedge would have significantly outperformed during 2000-2002, and 2008-2009, when US was really falling down, instead ex-US fell down alongside US.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:41 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:38 pm
marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:34 pm I hold ex-US at market weight. But, is there much recent evidence that when the US falls down, the ex-US provides a good hedge? It seems that as globalization has increased, so has the correlation between the markets. Maybe that is just recency bias.
Depends on how recent is recent. The ex-US proponents often talk about the ex-US outperformance between 2002~2008.
US markets also did reasonably well in those periods, the out performance was nice, but not really a hedge. A hedge would have significantly outperformed during 2000-2002, and 2008-2009, when US was really falling down, instead ex-US fell down alongside US.
Well, given equities are correlated, ex-US is never a hedge in the sense of negative correlation. But 2002~2008 was actually significant, we're talking about US doing 7%, ex-US 15% CAGR.
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:49 pm
marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:41 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:38 pm
marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:34 pm I hold ex-US at market weight. But, is there much recent evidence that when the US falls down, the ex-US provides a good hedge? It seems that as globalization has increased, so has the correlation between the markets. Maybe that is just recency bias.
Depends on how recent is recent. The ex-US proponents often talk about the ex-US outperformance between 2002~2008.
US markets also did reasonably well in those periods, the out performance was nice, but not really a hedge. A hedge would have significantly outperformed during 2000-2002, and 2008-2009, when US was really falling down, instead ex-US fell down alongside US.
Well, given equities are correlated, ex-US is never a hedge in the sense of negative correlation. But 2002~2008 was actually significant, we're talking about US doing 7% nominal, ex-US 15% CAGR.
Ok, i guess we agree then :beer .
I was responding to this exchange:
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:59 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
It's a hedge against the US falling down. However, it opens up for other risks such as China & Evergrande.
The problem is that US and ex-US seem to become highly correlated when they are falling down.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:53 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:49 pm
marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:41 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:38 pm
marcopolo wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:34 pm I hold ex-US at market weight. But, is there much recent evidence that when the US falls down, the ex-US provides a good hedge? It seems that as globalization has increased, so has the correlation between the markets. Maybe that is just recency bias.
Depends on how recent is recent. The ex-US proponents often talk about the ex-US outperformance between 2002~2008.
US markets also did reasonably well in those periods, the out performance was nice, but not really a hedge. A hedge would have significantly outperformed during 2000-2002, and 2008-2009, when US was really falling down, instead ex-US fell down alongside US.
Well, given equities are correlated, ex-US is never a hedge in the sense of negative correlation. But 2002~2008 was actually significant, we're talking about US doing 7% nominal, ex-US 15% CAGR.
Ok, i guess we agree then :beer .
I was responding to this exchange:
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:59 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
It's a hedge against the US falling down. However, it opens up for other risks such as China & Evergrande.
The problem is that US and ex-US seem to become highly correlated when they are falling down.
Yes, we are agreeing. Global equities are correlated but there might be periods where ex-US goes up more than the US. That's what those people are betting on.
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
Other people spend their money on cigarette and alcohol... I spend it on VXUS... I'm an VXUS addict.
Time is the ultimate currency.
namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by namajones »

H-Town wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:58 pm
Other people spend their money on cigarette and alcohol... I spend it on VXUS... I'm an VXUS addict.
VXUS and alcohol seem to go together well. I need the latter as I watch the former go down.

:sharebeer
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 456M »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
I often ask myself this same question.
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

This is great news. The Shiller PE Ratio is certain to improve at this rate. Clear skies ahead!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
S&P 500 did worse today?

EM about 1% better as well
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pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
VTI is down 2.09% today, versus -1.93% for VXUS.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gonefishing01 »

VWO (Vanguard EM ETF) held its own at -1% today. Never mind the fact that it’s negative YTD. :oops:
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

i own lots of ex-US.

But, i do find the following amusing:

Market: A decade of ex-US under performance
Chorus: A decade is too short of a time to judge, you have to be patient, in the long run you will be rewarded; you can't judge a strategy by the outcome.

Market: One day/One week of ex-US out performance
Chorus: Quoting the exact returns of the day/week, See we were right, we have been vindicated!

The same patterns seems to be true for Small/Value as well.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

pasadena wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:12 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
VTI is down 2.09% today, versus -1.93% for VXUS.
Glad to see it held up a little better in the end, most of the day VXUS was tanking more that VTI.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:25 pm
pasadena wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:12 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
VTI is down 2.09% today, versus -1.93% for VXUS.
Glad to see it held up a little better in the end, most of the day VXUS was tanking more that VTI.
Yeah, it's no secret that VXUS is underperforming VTI, yes. The last few weeks were rather painful for it too.
Last edited by pasadena on Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by xraygoggles »

I feel like the 00s outperformance of VXUS over VTI was a one time fluke. Ditto EM (which were more a currency/commodity play).

Markets have evolved, and gotten much more correlated since then - going forward I'm much more confident in Faangs than China or any international stocks.

VTI & Chill.
Simplicity is the key to brilliance - Vti & chill.
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:25 pm
pasadena wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:12 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
VTI is down 2.09% today, versus -1.93% for VXUS.
Glad to see it held up a little better in the end, most of the day VXUS was tanking more that VTI.
Guess who have been buying VXUS at a discount?

I buy VTI as well... but still at a premium above MSRP.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nathan Drake »

xraygoggles wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:12 pm I feel like the 00s outperformance of VXUS over VTI was a one time fluke. Ditto EM (which were more a currency/commodity play).

Markets have evolved, and gotten much more correlated since then - going forward I'm much more confident in Faangs than China or any international stocks.

VTI & Chill.
There will be times where VTI will be literally chilly

I prefer to have a coat on when that occurs
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

xraygoggles wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:12 pm I feel like the 00s outperformance of VXUS over VTI was a one time fluke. Ditto EM (which were more a currency/commodity play).

Markets have evolved, and gotten much more correlated since then - going forward I'm much more confident in Faangs than China or any international stocks.

VTI & Chill.
Actually, correlation hasn't really changed. Outperformance comes from a number of small changes piling up over time, such as today's -2% vs -1.93%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Somethingwitty92912 »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:59 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
It's a hedge against the US falling down. However, it opens up for other risks such as China & Evergrande.
If the US ever falls down, it will fall on top of the world it created. Best to keep this beast alive.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

xraygoggles wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:12 pm I feel like the 00s outperformance of VXUS over VTI was a one time fluke. Ditto EM (which were more a currency/commodity play).

Markets have evolved, and gotten much more correlated since then - going forward I'm much more confident in Faangs than China or any international stocks.

VTI & Chill.
I hope your bet works out. Good luck.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
am
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by am »

pasadena wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:12 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
VTI is down 2.09% today, versus -1.93% for VXUS.
I like how we have explanations of value shifting, yields going up, etc and “investors” reacting. In reality, it’s probably a huge fund doing some selling for much simpler reasons or because the manager thinks it’s right.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by am »

xraygoggles wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:12 pm I feel like the 00s outperformance of VXUS over VTI was a one time fluke. Ditto EM (which were more a currency/commodity play).

Markets have evolved, and gotten much more correlated since then - going forward I'm much more confident in Faangs than China or any international stocks.

VTI & Chill.
Confidence, feelings, beliefs are best ignored if you haven’t learned yet. You will likely be wrong. Best to diversify, accept that you know nothing about what’s to happen and ignore yourself.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

am wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:48 am
xraygoggles wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:12 pm I feel like the 00s outperformance of VXUS over VTI was a one time fluke. Ditto EM (which were more a currency/commodity play).

Markets have evolved, and gotten much more correlated since then - going forward I'm much more confident in Faangs than China or any international stocks.

VTI & Chill.
Confidence, feelings, beliefs are best ignored if you haven’t learned yet. You will likely be wrong. Best to diversify, accept that you know nothing about what’s to happen and ignore yourself.
+1 Investing Enlightenment.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht »

am wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:48 am Best to diversify, accept that you know nothing about what’s to happen and ignore yourself.
Lol, around here we argue about how to best diversify. Market weight International! Small cap value! EM! TIPS! TQQQ! (Okay, not really TQQQ)

We don't know anything but we sure "know" what to diversify into...
rocketsrule
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rocketsrule »

What are your thoughts on these articles with regards to the potential of the US defaulting on its debt?

I just saw one from JP Morgan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

rocketsrule wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:08 pm What are your thoughts on these articles with regards to the potential of the US defaulting on its debt?

I just saw one from JP Morgan
The same as I thought with all the other times about articles posted about US defaulting on its debt and the debt ceiling -- it's fake.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

morsk wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:01 pm
rocketsrule wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:08 pm What are your thoughts on these articles with regards to the potential of the US defaulting on its debt?

I just saw one from JP Morgan
The same as I thought with all the other times about articles posted about US defaulting on its debt and the debt ceiling -- it's fake.
It's not necessarily fake, but nobody in the financial press can predict the future either.

Reading most financial websites will not make you smarter.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

rocketsrule wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:08 pm What are your thoughts on these articles with regards to the potential of the US defaulting on its debt?


If you really want to freak yourself out, take a look at the articles talking about what's going on with the global transportation industry. Those workers have been getting seriously screwed for awhile now, and that is one labor shortage that would have pretty dire consequences.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

pasadena wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:12 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
VTI is down 2.09% today, versus -1.93% for VXUS.

VTI is up .07% today, versus -0.42% for VXUS.
I guess you rationale was good for a day?

By the way, I post this in jest.
As I mentioned in a post above, I think it is silly to quote single day performance as a justification for holding any investment.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pasadena »

marcopolo wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:10 pm
pasadena wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:12 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:55 pm I genuinely don’t understand why I hold VXUS - does worse when markets are up and drop further when markets tank!? What’s the point?
VTI is down 2.09% today, versus -1.93% for VXUS.

VTI is up .07% today, versus -0.42% for VXUS.
I guess you rationale was good for a day?

By the way, I post this in jest.
As I mentioned in a post above, I think it is silly to quote single day performance as a justification for holding any investment.
I also posted in jest, mostly to make the same point as you with regards to the original post by Yesterdaysnews.
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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

I have Dave’s jet field up next to my rocketship!

Blasting off soon!

🚀

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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