U.S. stocks in free fall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 14155
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

hnd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:44 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:34 am
hnd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:17 am
dmcmahon wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:54 pm
hnd wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:56 pm I've been selling some covid stocks that i bought after the giant dip to lock in some long term gains. I assume many are doing the same.
Tax uncertainty may further motivate some selling. But if you just buy back your positions, is there any net change in demand for shares?
Well i'm also profit taking to buy a new lawn mower and fund my wifes alpaca obsession.
Alpaca taste really good. Make a trip to Peru. Eat some.

Market is kinda mixed this morning.
my wife knits and crochets. and spins her own yarn. i have 5 females in my home, its hard enough dealing with the fallout of taking the pigs to slaughter.
Y’all do realize you’re conducting this conversation on the wrong thread, don’t you?

The market is soaring today! (At least S&P and Dow).
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 16260
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

Stinky wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:57 am...
Y’all do realize you’re conducting this conversation on the wrong thread, don’t you?

The market is soaring today! (At least S&P and Dow).
It is confusing when I see this thread popping up. I'm actually a bit hopeful that some steam would be let off in the broader U.S. market sometime soon... prior experience leads me to believe that's not likely though :annoyed
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
User avatar
dmcmahon
Posts: 2855
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2008 10:29 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dmcmahon »

APX32 wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:51 pm
Jebediah wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:19 pm I don't get this. Realizing taxes seems not at all worth whatever the taking-some-off-the-table value you perceive.
You could pay a lot more in taxes in 2022. So, it’s actually a smart move. I’m doing the exact same thing.

This could be yet another catalyst in driving the markets down, in addition to rising yields and renewed concerns about the COVID recovery. The recovery may not turn out to be as robust as once assumed, which might explain the small caps taking a bit of a hit recently.
Exactly my thinking too. And I've been paying the tax out of taxable bonds where I can't earn diddly, so the "cost" of losing the tax deferral is very low. Net of taxes I might clear 60-80bp, and net of inflation I'm taking real losses in bonds.

Buying a lawn mower (or any other tangible asset you might need) also makes a lot of sense. I'd get one of those John Deere rider mowers!
hnd
Posts: 1077
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:43 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by hnd »

sorry to be freaking everyone out lol
Grogs
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Grogs »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:02 am
lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:41 am We're so close to our number that we didn't need to take the risk of 100/0 anymore.

We need a 20% return to get to 25x. An 80/20 portfolio should get us there.

If I get called a market timer I'll just raise a glass because it worked out well. :beer
Yeah, we're at 40x now, and saving 2x yearly expenses for every 1 year we work. If we work 5 more years as planned, we could hit 50x even if we went all fixed income.

Cheers to a fellow market timer. :beer
I think it all comes down to intent. If you're lowering your AA (with no intent to raise it again) because you're close to retirement and the need to take risk has decreased, I would say that's exactly what you should be doing.

OTOH, if you're just lowering AA because you think a big crash is coming and you want "dry powder" to dump in at the bottom, that's absolutely market timing.

Of course I have no idea about the intent of a random person posting on the internet. Unless they tell me otherwise (like the many, many posters did last March) then I would assume it was the former explanation.
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:14 am
jason2459 wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:06 am Nonononono, it's not market timing when you rebalance or have a strategic asset allocation glide path. :sharebeer 8-)
Then why am I getting called a market timer if my IPS lays out the strategy?

I think people just get defensive when you say stocks look expensive and have increased odds to given lower future returns at this price. :twisted:

People get foamy when you bring up valuations.
Who's calling you a market timer :confused Besides, there's nothing wrong with market timing done right.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21282
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:32 am
lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:28 am I moved from 100/0 to 80/20 a few weeks ago. I took profit on big gains from 2020.

I have around 5 years of expenses in bonds. It feels good especially when we're close to our goal and I can take some risk off of the table at the same time.
Just be prepared for orthodox Bogleheads to call you a heretic and market timer.

At least that's what I get called when I tell people we reduced our AA from 70% stocks to 60% stocks in February due to a combination of valuations and having won the game.
Watchnerd, you've been here too long to not understand the general Boglehead philosophy

Moving from 100/0 to 80/20 because you're close to retirement goal is PRECISELY the kind of AA change that we suggest and approve of around here.

If lostdog is planning to move back to 100/0 because he expects a crash soon, then yes, he is market-timing, and he may get some pushback :)

And your move from 70% to 60% based on valuations is indeed market-timing, BUT most of us think small 10% moves are fine. I've argued with you that valuations have been terrible at predicting returns for the past 30 years, but I have no problems with people making 10% moves.

Your ISP is pretty solid, by the way. Top quintile and small changes is a much better plan than most market-timing strategies.

It's the 100/0 to 0/100 moves or the 80/20 to 20/80 moves that we try to discourage.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:32 am
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:32 am
lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:28 am I moved from 100/0 to 80/20 a few weeks ago. I took profit on big gains from 2020.

I have around 5 years of expenses in bonds. It feels good especially when we're close to our goal and I can take some risk off of the table at the same time.
Just be prepared for orthodox Bogleheads to call you a heretic and market timer.

At least that's what I get called when I tell people we reduced our AA from 70% stocks to 60% stocks in February due to a combination of valuations and having won the game.
Watchnerd, you've been here too long to not understand the general Boglehead philosophy

Moving from 100/0 to 80/20 because you're close to retirement is PRECISELY the kind of AA change that we suggest and approve of around here.

If lostdog is planning to move back to 100/0 because he expects a crash soon, then yes, he is market-timing, and he may get some pushback :)

And your move from 70% to 60% based on valuations is indeed market-timing, BUT most of us think small 10% moves are fine. I've argued with you that valuations have been terrible at predicting returns for the past 30 years, but I have no problems with people making 10% moves.

Your ISP is pretty solid, by the way. Top quintile and small changes is a much better plan than most market-timing strategies.

It's the 100/0 to 0/100 moves or the 80/20 to 20/80 moves that we try to discourage.
No sir. When we hit our next goal, which is 25x or more, I'll move to 70/30. When my wife stops working, I'll move to 60/40.

We don't need to take the risk of 100/0 anymore based on our goals. The 100/0 days are done.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
atdharris
Posts: 2091
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

What a boring market these days. You can pretty much predict what it will do each day by looking at interest rates. Interest rates up? Dow will rocket. Rates down? Nasdaq will moon. It's been rough on those of us who tilt towards tech :)
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

atdharris wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:26 am What a boring market these days. You can pretty much predict what it will do each day by looking at interest rates. Interest rates up? Dow will rocket. Rates down? Nasdaq will moon. It's been rough on those of us who tilt towards tech :)
It's still difficult to trade though, since we don't know which way 10Y will go...Imo it's heading upward but it's down this week.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:32 am
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:32 am
lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:28 am I moved from 100/0 to 80/20 a few weeks ago. I took profit on big gains from 2020.

I have around 5 years of expenses in bonds. It feels good especially when we're close to our goal and I can take some risk off of the table at the same time.
Just be prepared for orthodox Bogleheads to call you a heretic and market timer.

At least that's what I get called when I tell people we reduced our AA from 70% stocks to 60% stocks in February due to a combination of valuations and having won the game.
Watchnerd, you've been here too long to not understand the general Boglehead philosophy

Moving from 100/0 to 80/20 because you're close to retirement goal is PRECISELY the kind of AA change that we suggest and approve of around here.

If lostdog is planning to move back to 100/0 because he expects a crash soon, then yes, he is market-timing, and he may get some pushback :)

And your move from 70% to 60% based on valuations is indeed market-timing, BUT most of us think small 10% moves are fine. I've argued with you that valuations have been terrible at predicting returns for the past 30 years, but I have no problems with people making 10% moves.

Your ISP is pretty solid, by the way. Top quintile and small changes is a much better plan than most market-timing strategies.

It's the 100/0 to 0/100 moves or the 80/20 to 20/80 moves that we try to discourage.
HomerJ, sometimes I think you have a crush on me with the amount of attention you pay to what I post. :)
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:28 am
atdharris wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:26 am What a boring market these days. You can pretty much predict what it will do each day by looking at interest rates. Interest rates up? Dow will rocket. Rates down? Nasdaq will moon. It's been rough on those of us who tilt towards tech :)
It's still difficult to trade though, since we don't know which way 10Y will go...Imo it's heading upward but it's down this week.
There must be institutional computer algorithms reacting to the bond yield. Very annoying.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 12130
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Staying my course.

The Road Not Taken by R. Frost

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21282
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:11 pm HomerJ, sometimes I think you have a crush on me with the amount of attention you pay to what I post. :)
Well I do like shiny things. :)
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
jarjarM
Posts: 2511
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Just warming up the thread again, since the market is trending downward and probably close in red for the day. :annoyed
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Tech is getting pummeled again.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:41 pm Tech is getting pummeled again.
Image
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
User avatar
OohLaLa
Posts: 459
Joined: Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:26 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by OohLaLa »

lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:41 pm Tech is getting pummeled again.
Arrrrrrr... The tech sea is a harsh mistress... chop, chop, chop go the waves... has me ol' wooden leg shiverin' like the rain drops in the breeze!
peppers
Posts: 1650
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peppers »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:02 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:41 pm Tech is getting pummeled again.
Image
Revenge of the Luddites
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:41 pm Tech is getting pummeled again.
China takes the prize, MCHI -4.32%, dragging down its brother emerging markets VWO -2.38%.
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Posts: 32842
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 7:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Roads to success

Post by Taylor Larimore »

TheTimeLord wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:27 pm Staying my course.

The Road Not Taken by R. Frost

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
TimeLord:

Thank you for sharing this beautiful poem by Robert Frost! It ties-in with a short phrase of my own.
There is more than one road to Dublin.
Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of WIsdom: “The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.”
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
rockstar
Posts: 6326
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Today sucked.
Visitor76
Posts: 326
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:08 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Visitor76 »

hnd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:44 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:34 am
hnd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:17 am
dmcmahon wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:54 pm
hnd wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:56 pm I've been selling some covid stocks that i bought after the giant dip to lock in some long term gains. I assume many are doing the same.
Tax uncertainty may further motivate some selling. But if you just buy back your positions, is there any net change in demand for shares?
Well i'm also profit taking to buy a new lawn mower and fund my wifes alpaca obsession.
Alpaca taste really good. Make a trip to Peru. Eat some.

Market is kinda mixed this morning.
my wife knits and crochets. and spins her own yarn. i have 5 females in my home, its hard enough dealing with the fallout of taking the pigs to slaughter.
And here I was thinking that having 3 females in the house was bad.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
BoogyBogle
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:59 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BoogyBogle »

*whistles*
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 12130
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Apparently Forester is this forum's Michael Burry. It is time to acknowledge his prescience.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

ARKK -5.69%
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Visitor76
Posts: 326
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:08 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Visitor76 »

Perhaps it's time to focus on income, not growth:
Image
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

GME STONKED UP

Image
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
invester123
Posts: 53
Joined: Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by invester123 »

Deciding between getting into long-term indiv stocks like AAPL at this point. Have <10 shares. I keep wanting to really enter but end up dumping $$ into an index fund.
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:34 pm GME STONKED UP

Image
Their ER was bad I believe. Suddenly people paying attention to GME fundamentals.
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:42 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:34 pm GME STONKED UP

Image
Their ER was bad I believe. Suddenly people paying attention to GME fundamentals.
It wasn't going to live up to the price no matter what the earnings report was.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
MishkaWorries
Posts: 1362
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MishkaWorries »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:53 am
zuma wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:50 am
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:14 am Then why am I getting called a market timer if my IPS lays out the strategy?
The wiki says: "Market timing refers to act(s) of investing based on the condition of the market as opposed to personal characteristics."

It sounds like your changes are based on a mix of both (market conditions and personal characteristics).

Your tactical AA changes based on valuations are clearly a form of market timing according to the textbook Boglehead definition. Having a predefined strategy doesn't change that.

On the other hand, you have a reduced need to take risk based on your personal situation. So you've dialed down to 60% stocks. That is not market timing.

Looking at the whole picture, your changes make sense to me. But if people only see the tactical moves without the broader personal context, that's probably why you're getting called a market timer. :beer
I'm relishing it. ;)
Unrepentant heretic :annoyed

Stone him!
We plan. G-d laughs.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 14155
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:46 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:42 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:34 pm GME STONKED UP

Image
Their ER was bad I believe. Suddenly people paying attention to GME fundamentals.
It wasn't going to live up to the price no matter what the earnings report was.
Personally, I think that GME has a lot further to fall.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

MishkaWorries wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:53 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:53 am
zuma wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:50 am
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:14 am Then why am I getting called a market timer if my IPS lays out the strategy?
The wiki says: "Market timing refers to act(s) of investing based on the condition of the market as opposed to personal characteristics."

It sounds like your changes are based on a mix of both (market conditions and personal characteristics).

Your tactical AA changes based on valuations are clearly a form of market timing according to the textbook Boglehead definition. Having a predefined strategy doesn't change that.

On the other hand, you have a reduced need to take risk based on your personal situation. So you've dialed down to 60% stocks. That is not market timing.

Looking at the whole picture, your changes make sense to me. But if people only see the tactical moves without the broader personal context, that's probably why you're getting called a market timer. :beer
I'm relishing it. ;)
Unrepentant heretic :annoyed

Stone him!
Image
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Stinky wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:57 pm Personally, I think that GME has a lot further to fall.
Radio Shack 2.0?
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 14155
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:02 pm
Stinky wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:57 pm Personally, I think that GME has a lot further to fall.
Radio Shack 2.0?
Or maybe CompUSA. Or Circuit City.

There are lots of examples of failed brick-and-mortar electronics retailers.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
rockstar
Posts: 6326
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

At this point, I'm just waiting for earnings next month. The 10 year seems to have found a range, and I hope it doesn't continue to climb.
humbledinvestor
Posts: 267
Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:37 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by humbledinvestor »

Stinky wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:10 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:02 pm
Stinky wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:57 pm Personally, I think that GME has a lot further to fall.
Radio Shack 2.0?
Or maybe CompUSA. Or Circuit City.

There are lots of examples of failed brick-and-mortar electronics retailers.
Does anyone remember Crazy Eddie's?
User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 13614
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:11 pm At this point, I'm just waiting for earnings next month. The 10 year seems to have found a range, and I hope it doesn't continue to climb.
Temporary breather.

It's going to go 2.0% before EOY.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
drk
Posts: 3944
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

humbledinvestor wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:17 pm Does anyone remember Crazy Eddie's?
There was an episode of the Odd Lots podcast about it. :D
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
rockstar
Posts: 6326
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:11 pm At this point, I'm just waiting for earnings next month. The 10 year seems to have found a range, and I hope it doesn't continue to climb.
Temporary breather.

It's going to go 2.0% before EOY.
Possibly. It's at about pre-pandemic levels. I don't see a reason for it to go much higher until the Fed increases the short end.
User avatar
jason2459
Posts: 1208
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 7:59 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:33 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:11 pm At this point, I'm just waiting for earnings next month. The 10 year seems to have found a range, and I hope it doesn't continue to climb.
Temporary breather.

It's going to go 2.0% before EOY.
Possibly. It's at about pre-pandemic levels. I don't see a reason for it to go much higher until the Fed increases the short end.

Still below 2019 month on month levels.

https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
rockstar
Posts: 6326
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

jason2459 wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:35 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:33 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:11 pm At this point, I'm just waiting for earnings next month. The 10 year seems to have found a range, and I hope it doesn't continue to climb.
Temporary breather.

It's going to go 2.0% before EOY.
Possibly. It's at about pre-pandemic levels. I don't see a reason for it to go much higher until the Fed increases the short end.

Still below 2019 month on month levels.

https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php
This is before the Fed started cutting rates.
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Looks like bloodbath today lol
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:21 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:18 pm Its going down... dang
Aren't you the poster doing 2k/day? I'm doing something similar and this is good for us.
Yes. Just autopiloting. Problem is i just made 200k purchase for a car 😭
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

newyorker wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:51 am Looks like bloodbath today lol
Powell opened his mouth and spooked the market.

The funny thing is he said they would only start tapering the bond buying after full employment.

Just the mention of the tapering spooked the market.

What a joke.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/stock-m ... -news.html
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
User avatar
morsk
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:30 am
Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

lostdog wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:00 am
newyorker wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:51 am Looks like bloodbath today lol
Powell opened his mouth and spooked the market.

The funny thing is he said they would only start tapering the bond buying after full employment.

Just the mention of the tapering spooked the market.

What a joke.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/stock-m ... -news.html
Agreed. This is not a normal or healthy market.
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

morsk wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:10 am
lostdog wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:00 am
newyorker wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:51 am Looks like bloodbath today lol
Powell opened his mouth and spooked the market.

The funny thing is he said they would only start tapering the bond buying after full employment.

Just the mention of the tapering spooked the market.

What a joke.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/stock-m ... -news.html
Agreed. This is not a normal or healthy market.
Or all of this increased volatility is the new normal.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

newyorker wrote: Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:54 am
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:21 pm
newyorker wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:18 pm Its going down... dang
Aren't you the poster doing 2k/day? I'm doing something similar and this is good for us.
Yes. Just autopiloting. Problem is i just made 200k purchase for a car 😭
What model car for 200k? A Lambo?
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
alluringreality
Posts: 1512
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alluringreality »

rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:33 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:18 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:11 pm At this point, I'm just waiting for earnings next month. The 10 year seems to have found a range, and I hope it doesn't continue to climb.
Temporary breather.

It's going to go 2.0% before EOY.
Possibly. It's at about pre-pandemic levels. I don't see a reason for it to go much higher until the Fed increases the short end.
The Fed balance sheet, specifically nominal notes and bonds, appears to continue to climb at this point. If the Fed wasn't buying, I figure that could potentially affect longer-term market rates as near-term rates remain. The main question is if they handle the current situation better than 2013. Of course taper has been a top financial topic recently.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHONBNL
45% US Indexes, 25% Ex-US Indexes, 30% Fixed Income - Buy & Hold
Locked