U.S. stocks in free fall
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
SPX hit -1% at one point, quite a big drop for a day.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Inflation can't be helping either.investorpeter wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:59 pmI would guess that it's a combination of 1) gains harvesting in anticipation of capital gains tax increase in new tax proposal, 2) debt ceiling concerns, 3) we just hit new highs a couple of weeks ago so normal pullback, 4) delta variant problems, 5) approaching fed tapering. So in other words, the same old wall of worry that we have been climbing to new highs for the past year. Nothing to see here.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This month has just been a long, boring decline
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
As far as I can tell, all of the above was either known, or at least considered, prior to "this drop", so the causative relationships are unclear.Whakamole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:56 pmInflation can't be helping either.investorpeter wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:59 pmI would guess that it's a combination of 1) gains harvesting in anticipation of capital gains tax increase in new tax proposal, 2) debt ceiling concerns, 3) we just hit new highs a couple of weeks ago so normal pullback, 4) delta variant problems, 5) approaching fed tapering. So in other words, the same old wall of worry that we have been climbing to new highs for the past year. Nothing to see here.
That being said, I'd focus on #3.
Definition of correction: "the action or process of correcting something". Who's against that?
You wanted what... a short, exciting decline? Fasten your seat belts!
As with roller coasters, the ride is there to be enjoyed. Cheers...
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
5/12/2021 for VTI. Happened twice before that this year on 01/27 and 02/25. Totaling 12 days where VTI went down more than 1% in 2021.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:26 pm When is the last time we had a 2% increase or decrease in the S&P 500 or total market in a day? It seems like it's been so boring lately.
Will today be the 13th?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Exactly, and it's right on time... just wait till October gets here. All I can say is DCA over the next two months.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
September is the self-rebalancing month.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Look out below. You might only make a real return of 10% in equities this year.
And still better than bonds.
And still better than bonds.
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm expectation is 6-7% nominal. So I'm super happy so far this year.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pmA real return of 10% seems great to me, what's your expectation?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Helps to relativise, doesn't it? You made me curious and I went to check my YTD performance at Fidelity, and so far I'm at 13.6% in 401(k) and 12.75% for non-workplace accounts (Brokerage, Roth IRA and HSA). Not bad at all!rockstar wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:50 pmI'm expectation is 6-7% nominal. So I'm super happy so far this year.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pmA real return of 10% seems great to me, what's your expectation?
I wish Vanguard would get their act together and give the YTD performance, but hey. Guess it's too hard
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm at roughly 18% in my brokerage accounts and 19% in my 401k. I'm a happy camper.pasadena wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:53 pmHelps to relativise, doesn't it? You made me curious and I went to check my YTD performance at Fidelity, and so far I'm at 13.6% in 401(k) and 12.75% for non-workplace accounts (Brokerage, Roth IRA and HSA). Not bad at all!rockstar wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:50 pmI'm expectation is 6-7% nominal. So I'm super happy so far this year.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pmA real return of 10% seems great to me, what's your expectation?
I wish Vanguard would get their act together and give the YTD performance, but hey. Guess it's too hard
-
- Posts: 3509
- Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:52 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
5 year trendline closely aligns with SPX 4000...
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Interesting y-axis. Applying linear modeling to exponential curves I see!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Why are futures - 1.25%?
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm not sure. I often notice futures trade lower than the SPX, but not by -1.23%...I guess the traders were bearish for reasons unknown. Maybe it had to do with the Quad Witching Friday, perhaps.
Lots of traders are cautious of the FOMC rates decision & presser on Wednesday as well.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Better question - why are you looking at futures on Saturday, when markets don't even open again until Monday? And even when looking at futures shortly before the open, they often don't accurately predict what the market will do that day, anyway, so again, why bother looking at futures?
-
- Posts: 8952
- Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 6:11 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Futures aren’t open now.
The numbers you are seeing are from Friday.The majority of futures contracts start trading Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern time and close on Friday afternoon between 4:30 and 5 p.m. Eastern, depending on the commodity.
Cheers
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's what they talk about though...how the futures closed -1.25% on Friday evening. No one said it is trading right now.Silk McCue wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:56 pmFutures aren’t open now.
The numbers you are seeing are from Friday.The majority of futures contracts start trading Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern time and close on Friday afternoon between 4:30 and 5 p.m. Eastern, depending on the commodity.
Cheers
-
- Posts: 8952
- Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 6:11 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sorry but you don’t know that Blue456 knows that.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:58 pmThat's what they talk about though...how the futures closed -1.25% on Friday evening. No one said it is trading right now.Silk McCue wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:56 pmFutures aren’t open now.
The numbers you are seeing are from Friday.The majority of futures contracts start trading Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern time and close on Friday afternoon between 4:30 and 5 p.m. Eastern, depending on the commodity.
Cheers
I’m just trying to educate. Believe it or not a vast majority of folks don’t know that.
Cheers
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Fair point, I don't know that they know that. I'm glad we both doSilk McCue wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:10 pm Sorry but you don’t know that Blue456 knows that.
I’m just trying to educate. Believe it or not a vast majority of folks don’t know that.
Cheers
-
- Posts: 3509
- Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:52 am
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Hang Seng -3% already and taking SPX futures down -0.6%...Nikkei appears closed due to their holiday.
FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser on Wednesday.
FOMC rates decision & Chair Powell's presser on Wednesday.
-
- Posts: 3509
- Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:52 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
SPX futures down almost a percent.. looks like finally we are going to have this correction
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yeah, Hang Seng -4% now due to the Evergrande situation, taking SPX futures down bigly.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:14 pm SPX futures down almost a percent.. looks like finally we are going to have this correction
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks.like.a rough day tomorrow.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My friend the realtor says "the only two dates that matter are the day you buy and the day you sell." Fixating on interim gyrations is a poor use of time. Who cares unless you intend to sell??
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Stock futures not looking good. Dow futures down 329, S&P 500 futures down 33.75, and the NAZZ futures down 91.75. Should be an interesting day tomorrow.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Big sea of red today. Hold on tight.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Hold on tight ? Why? Not even RBD in my world !! We didn’t have 5% pullback for months. Oh my G. The world is ending)) Lol. People get a grip.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks legit in RBD territory for a few exchanges, but amazingly the Nikkei 225 is up. Can't believe China, which rules over its corporations with a heavy hand, can't be counted on to bail out a company too big to fail. How can they be more ruthless than the US government on this question?
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ouch gonna be a bad day.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nikkei is not up -- you are looking at Friday's quote. Their markets were closed Monday.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:11 am Looks legit in RBD territory for a few exchanges, but amazingly the Nikkei 225 is up. Can't believe China, which rules over its corporations with a heavy hand, can't be counted on to bail out a company too big to fail. How can they be more ruthless than the US government on this question?
Oh lovely another presser! What's Powell going to talk about this time? How he and his buddies were front running the same securities the Fed were buying and making millions off of it? Yeah I doubt it, but I'm sure he'll reassure the boomers that the Fed will continue their plunder for a few more yearsMarseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:07 pm
Lots of traders are cautious of the FOMC rates decision & presser on Wednesday as well.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thanks for pointing that out, I see they are around -2% now. Everything is down except for the VIX stock exchange which is up an incredible 8% today, what country is that?morsk wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:32 amNikkei is not up -- you are looking at Friday's quote. Their markets were closed Monday.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:11 am Looks legit in RBD territory for a few exchanges, but amazingly the Nikkei 225 is up. Can't believe China, which rules over its corporations with a heavy hand, can't be counted on to bail out a company too big to fail. How can they be more ruthless than the US government on this question?
Oh lovely another presser! What's Powell going to talk about this time? How he and his buddies were front running the same securities the Fed were buying and making millions off of it? Yeah I doubt it, but I'm sure he'll reassure the boomers that the Fed will continue their plunder for a few more yearsMarseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:07 pm
Lots of traders are cautious of the FOMC rates decision & presser on Wednesday as well.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
-
- Posts: 1796
- Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:00 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Bruh they were actively trading futures and other derivatives and buying munis moments before the Fed went in for the mega-buys on those securities. If they were just contributing to their VTSAX positions that they've held on for 30 years, nobody would care. But they were actively trading millions of dollars from their personal accounts, executing several dozens of trade a week, netting them millions in profit. Yeah, DEFINITELY not impacted by the decisions they were making behind the scenes. Give me a break...z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:36 am
Thanks for pointing that out, I see they are around -2% now.
I am not sure I can muster the same anger that they held bonds in their personal accounts. Did it really impact their choices at all? If they can't hold stocks or bonds, are they supposed to just have giant bank accounts?
-
- Posts: 352
- Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:09 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Seriously. Not even meaningful TLH opportunities yet. We’ve all been spoiled this year with the relentless climb.
I’m still optimistic we’ll see more new ATH before the end of the year.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Powell, who you name in your first post, was merely holding bonds he purchased well before the pandemic and they account for a small amount of his net worth. Maybe it is the actions of Boston and Dallas fed presidents who were actively trading stocks (not the bonds in question) during this time that you are describing. Who was buying munis moments before the Fed announced their mega-buys?morsk wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:42 amBruh they were actively trading futures and other derivatives and buying munis moments before the Fed went in for the mega-buys on those securities. If they were just contributing to their VTSAX positions that they've held on for 30 years, nobody would care. But they were actively trading millions of dollars from their personal accounts, executing several dozens of trade a week, netting them millions in profit. Yeah, DEFINITELY not impacted by the decisions they were making behind the scenes. Give me a break...z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:36 am
Thanks for pointing that out, I see they are around -2% now.
I am not sure I can muster the same anger that they held bonds in their personal accounts. Did it really impact their choices at all? If they can't hold stocks or bonds, are they supposed to just have giant bank accounts?
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Oh whoopee, market down a whole 600 points after being up 20000...
Hold on tight? For what???
Hold on tight? For what???
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not everyone invested 20000 points ago, some people lump-summed in last week, last month, two months ago et cetera. Doesn't change the fact that they shouldn't sell, but it's easier to say 'Don't sell' when you have a 20% gain runway keeping you in the green. Not everyone has that luxury psychologically.
60% AVGE | 20 Year TIPS LMP | 5% Cash
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This market is so over leveraged, it cannot tolerate this kind of drop. Either this gets bought up before the close or we may need some bills to pass real quick to reverse this.
-
- Posts: 922
- Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:25 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
the dip will be bought
-
- Posts: 672
- Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If it drops only another 38% to 48% Forester will be proven correct!
-
- Posts: 10433
- Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
What kind of drop? This is just the market doing what it does. A long-term 10% or whatever return is not earned without volatility along the way. We haven't even had a 5% drop all year. Do you realize how rare that is?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Remember when up or down 500 was HUGE?
Hmmm. Maybe I’m just old.
Hmmm. Maybe I’m just old.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
LOL, after Archegos maybe not as unlikely as once believed …
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
1998 - Russia, LTCM
1999/2000 - Dotcom peak
2021 - China, Evergrande
2022 - YOLO/StocksOnlyGoUp peak
A 2022 top vs a Q4 2021 top would call into question my credibility as a macro forecaster.
1999/2000 - Dotcom peak
2021 - China, Evergrande
2022 - YOLO/StocksOnlyGoUp peak
A 2022 top vs a Q4 2021 top would call into question my credibility as a macro forecaster.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist