exactlywillthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:31 pmThe Fed doesn't just magically put money into people's bank accounts, if that's what you're referring to. But the Fed absolutely does create money. In fact, all banks create money when they make loans, as discussed here. The Fed can just do things at a far larger scale than an ordinary bank can.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:05 pm Also, the Fed doesn't print money. Not physically and not virtually. It merely can regulate interest rates and issue reserve notes to commercial banking system to offset bank liabilities aka "money". But, this thread of discussion is outside the scope of markets. Jeff Snider is IMHO the foremost expert on this subject and understanding how QE cannot produce inflation. He seems to know more than just about anyone from the talking head shows, even folks like El-Erian.
U.S. stocks in free fall
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I view it as an example of pure capitalism. For any given stock, shares of the same class are completely fungible.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:07 pmIt was indeed a wonderful comeback! There was an army of dip buyers lurking in the shadows waiting to lunge. Who knew?!
Every day there is a fundamental struggle between the greed of those who fear the market for their stock has peaked and the greed of the FOMO crowd who do not want to miss the profits to be gleaned from future price increases.
And we get to place our bets while watching the battle play out...
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
- JoinTheLocalizer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Another fine day!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And looks like another day with some of us international holding folks can rejoice our short lived victory
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
im still 100% us equities if your in it for the long term best to be in the market and not try time it
update- spy still going strong https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/spy
update- spy still going strong https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/spy
Last edited by Arron Duncan on Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
- JoinTheLocalizer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm up today, but that's chiefly because of oil and shipping. SBLK, SHI, TTE, XOM, etc.gas_balloon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:01 amAnd looks like another day with some of us international holding folks can rejoice our short lived victory
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The market is nervous ahead of JP's testimony today.
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, my portfolio shows some signs of life in the beaten down tech names at least..
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The market fiction that current stock prices reflect expected future cash flows is also taking more and more of a beating. Nowadays market structure is a much better explanation for short term price movement than changes in long term expectations. I think recently option volume has actually exceeded underlying trading volume. Derivatives are now the real movers in the market, and the effects of derivatives market structure are only magnified by the large consistent passive inflows to indexes. In other words, the pool of active trading is shrinking, while the popularity of derivatives is exploding.JoMoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:50 amPeople take "priced in" to mean different things. I don't believe the market is efficient, or necessarily even represents a rational fundamental investment value... but I do believe it's very hard to beat the market out-trading it at any particular price level. Trading is zero-sum in aggregate, so it's certain that after costs and trading frictions less than half the money trying to out-trade will be able to.JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:34 am... Yeah, I don't buy into the always priced in theory. Seeing what we did in the market yesterday helps to validate that hypothesis...
All of the prognostications and narratives tied to fundamentals or external events, without any link to derivatives market structure, are mostly nonsense at this point. Which makes these threads hilarious.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The sky is falling!!!!!!!!!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My first IRA contribution of the year went to VTSAX today because it was the lagging asset.
Last edited by Triple digit golfer on Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Have lived through 26 out of the 50 biggest days, each +/- 7% or more. These 1-2 percent days don't even register an emotion anymore.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sorry guys. I just put in a big VOO order this morning, so I think I may have some responsibility.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Big afternoon dump at the close
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This market is running out of buyers....
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Speak for yourself! I am still around
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Tomorrow, tomorrow...
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
How much further do you all think we have to drop?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We are not even in correction territory yet. The fall is still very young!
Let's get S&P 500 below 4,350... then we are talking.
Last edited by fetch5482 on Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
- GeraniumLover
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Berkshire Hathaway hit a new all time high again today
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's up 6.81% in 2022 alone.GeraniumLover wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:29 pm Berkshire Hathaway hit a new all time high again today
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Cash is trash, so everybody's buying a company loaded with cash.GeraniumLover wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:29 pm Berkshire Hathaway hit a new all time high again today
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If we knew the answer to questions like this, we'd have most of the money in the world.
If you read this thread from the first post, it is pretty easy to see that it is true that nobody knows nothing. At least nobody nowhere near here. And probably nowhere else.
Big moves are always thrilling. And often a complete surprise! Be prepared and hang on tight!
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- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I have a bunch of buy orders in.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
that's very impressive!GP813 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:32 pmIt's up 6.81% in 2022 alone.GeraniumLover wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:29 pm Berkshire Hathaway hit a new all time high again today
The majority of analysts predicted only around a 6-7% rise in the stock market for all of 2022. IIRC
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
peskypesky wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:13 pmI have a bunch of buy orders in.
[/quote
I am glad I recently posted and got the inspiration to become more conservative in line with my IPS a month or so ago
The gravy train ride may be ending
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Jimsad wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:21 pmInflation high , covid high , rising rates .peskypesky wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:13 pmI have a bunch of buy orders in.
[/quote
I am glad I recently posted and got the inspiration to become more conservative in line with my IPS a month or so ago
The gravy train ride may be ending
Beginning of another 2008?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We're doomed.
A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I am not saying abandon stocks but aggressively buying dips thinking it will go right back up May not be prudent
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Tbh I don't see issues. Even after 5 hikes, the rates would be like what, 1.25%? 3 hikes or 5 might not even make that much of a difference when we're trying to fight 7% inflation.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's the run off of the balance sheet. How high does the 10 year go?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:54 pmTbh I don't see issues. Even after 5 hikes, the rates would be like what, 1.25%? 3 hikes or 5 might not even make that much of a difference when we're trying to fight 7% inflation.
- JoinTheLocalizer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't normally do this, but I took a tiny dip in puts against some really bad apples. ROKU, DASH, CVNA, and RBLX. Premiums weren't cheap but definitely did not disappoint
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You think this is why people are buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:55 pm Cash was quite precious between 2008 and 2012, and not just for stocks. House down the street from my Mom's went to foreclosure for only $40K, in a nice retirement neighborhood in FL. I wish I started my pilot journey back then. Could've scored a Cessna 172 for about 1/3 of the price since there were so many broke as a joke folks who lost their toys to the bank, or wifey made them sell it to not fall behind on the mortgage.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
- JoinTheLocalizer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Perhaps? I'm such a big dummy when it comes to Buffett's companies. I would assume they have very health balance sheets just based on the man's philosophy.drk wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:52 pmYou think this is why people are buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?JoinTheLocalizer wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:55 pm Cash was quite precious between 2008 and 2012, and not just for stocks. House down the street from my Mom's went to foreclosure for only $40K, in a nice retirement neighborhood in FL. I wish I started my pilot journey back then. Could've scored a Cessna 172 for about 1/3 of the price since there were so many broke as a joke folks who lost their toys to the bank, or wifey made them sell it to not fall behind on the mortgage.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
They buy a lot. In the interview, the Fed guy had no idea how much impact the run-off would have on rates. That's not really reassuring.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:43 pmI'm not sure, but it feels strange that the Fed influences the yields so much. It almost feels as if they're the only one trading bonds.
- willthrill81
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- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If I am going to worry about anything it is workforce participation. At least at the moment I personally don't have a lot of concern around the 10 year.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:50 pmThey buy a lot. In the interview, the Fed guy had no idea how much impact the run-off would have on rates. That's not really reassuring.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:43 pmI'm not sure, but it feels strange that the Fed influences the yields so much. It almost feels as if they're the only one trading bonds.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
- goodenyou
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Does this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?
Thanks for your input.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" |
“At 50, everyone has the face he deserves”
- willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Bonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield and usually have been in a much smaller band than that.goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pmDoes this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?
Thanks for your input.
Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The Sensible Steward
- goodenyou
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That’s a long time to keep the faith in “safety”.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:43 pmBonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield usually in a much smaller band than that.goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pmDoes this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?
Thanks for your input.
Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
Thanks.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" |
“At 50, everyone has the face he deserves”
- willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The only thing 'safe' about bonds is that the returns have been quite predictable, and their nominal volatility has been much less than that of stocks. But 10 year Treasuries lost a whopping 42% of their buying power from 1977-1981, the kind of drawdown that people normally associate with stocks.goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:48 pmThat’s a long time to keep the faith in “safety”.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:43 pmBonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield usually in a much smaller band than that.goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pmDoes this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?
Thanks for your input.
Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
Thanks.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yeah but it wasn't a straight 40 years of bad....goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:48 pmThat’s a long time to keep the faith in “safety”.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:43 pmBonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield usually in a much smaller band than that.goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pmDoes this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?
Thanks for your input.
Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
Thanks.
Just like stocks, start and end date matter...
Anything that starts at or ends with 2000 is suspect... Anything that starts or ends with 1981 is also suspect.
Inflation hit double-digits in the late 70s and early 1980s... everything looks bad if you end with 3-4 years of 9%-11% inflation.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I am shocked, just shocked that cherry picking of beginning and end dates is going on around here.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:03 pmYeah but it wasn't a straight 40 years of bad....goodenyou wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:48 pmThat’s a long time to keep the faith in “safety”.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:43 pmBonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield usually in a much smaller band than that.
Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
Thanks.
Just like stocks, start and end date matter...
Anything that starts at or ends with 2000 is suspect... Anything that starts or ends with 1981 is also suspect.
Inflation hit double-digits in the late 70s and early 1980s... everything looks bad if you end with 3-4 years of 9%-11% inflation.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I moved a housing discussion into a new thread. See: U.S. stocks in free fall - Housing side discussion
Please stay on-topic, which is the US market (decreasing).
(Thanks to the member who reported the post.)
Please stay on-topic, which is the US market (decreasing).
(Thanks to the member who reported the post.)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Future looks pretty bad already
- JoinTheLocalizer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Recessions and corrections are good to clean things out.
I suppose it's like everyone hating on the janitor coming and cleaning up the confetti, empty glasses and vomit the folks left after a kickin' party?
I suppose it's like everyone hating on the janitor coming and cleaning up the confetti, empty glasses and vomit the folks left after a kickin' party?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Shaking out the weak hands for awhile.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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