There is no way the fed will allow the market to drop 20%, they have total control over it.Kookaburra wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 pm I want more of this. Like, 20% more down from here. Oh please, mr. market!
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Gosh, I hope big market declines aren't a thing of the past.squirm wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:26 amThere is no way the fed will allow the market to drop 20%, they have total control over it.Kookaburra wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 pm I want more of this. Like, 20% more down from here. Oh please, mr. market!
Getting rid of risk will kill future returns.
Plus, the Fed has no mandate or goals specific to the stock market.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
umm, big declines are a thing of the past, that's why the big houses don't purchase insurance like they use to. It's another way to stimulate the economy. Benny put the brakes on big declines by jawboning the markets back up when ZIRP rules. Jerry finally got the hint during the March 2020 decline.watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:31 amGosh, I hope big market declines aren't a thing of the past.squirm wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:26 amThere is no way the fed will allow the market to drop 20%, they have total control over it.Kookaburra wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 pm I want more of this. Like, 20% more down from here. Oh please, mr. market!
Getting rid of risk will kill future returns.
Plus, the Fed has no mandate or goals specific to the stock market.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This.. the fed engineering an 'eternal summer' will feel good in the short run but destroy the time value of money..watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:31 amGosh, I hope big market declines aren't a thing of the past.squirm wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:26 amThere is no way the fed will allow the market to drop 20%, they have total control over it.Kookaburra wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 pm I want more of this. Like, 20% more down from here. Oh please, mr. market!
Getting rid of risk will kill future returns.
Plus, the Fed has no mandate or goals specific to the stock market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is all totally my fault. I invested $7,000 in my tIRA last Thursday or Friday. I should have known that would cause a sharp correction.
We plan. G-d laughs.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If big declines are a thing of the past, then stock future returns will be dramatically less than in past decades.squirm wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:35 am
umm, big declines are a thing of the past, that's why the big houses don't purchase insurance like they use to. It's another way to stimulate the economy. Benny put the brakes on big declines by jawboning the markets back up when ZIRP rules. Jerry finally got the hint during the March 2020 decline.
You don't get to take away high risk and keep the high returns.
There is no free lunch.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Tell that to the fed. I didn't think they could pull off what they did, but they did and now their using it as a "tool" in their rate policy toolkit as they like to say.watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:38 amIf big declines are a thing of the past, then stock future returns will be dramatically less than in past decades.squirm wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:35 am
umm, big declines are a thing of the past, that's why the big houses don't purchase insurance like they use to. It's another way to stimulate the economy. Benny put the brakes on big declines by jawboning the markets back up when ZIRP rules. Jerry finally got the hint during the March 2020 decline.
You don't get to take away high risk and keep the high returns.
There is no free lunch.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If the Fed starts implementing QE by putting a floor on stock market declines, you will see a reduction in future stock returns.
Capital will migrate to higher risk / return locations and asset inflation will get worse.
Be careful what you wish for.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep.. if a egg laying chicken prone to getting sick sells for $100 and lays $6 eggs a year on average that's 6% return.
If chicken scientists come up with a serum to make the chicken invincible, people will be willing to pay $200 for it even if it's only laying $6 eggs.. that'll be 3% return.
People who already own chickens will feel great at first as their net worth doubles. But the ROR after that will be dismal.
If chicken scientists come up with a serum to make the chicken invincible, people will be willing to pay $200 for it even if it's only laying $6 eggs.. that'll be 3% return.
People who already own chickens will feel great at first as their net worth doubles. But the ROR after that will be dismal.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Everything crashing. Cash was not trash.
- Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And, personally, I would start over-weighting emerging market stocks, frontier market stocks, and other options for going further out on the risk curve.Tamalak wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:51 am Yep.. if a egg laying chicken prone to getting sick sells for $100 and lays $6 eggs a year on average that's 6% return.
If chicken scientists come up with a serum to make the chicken invincible, people will be willing to pay $200 for it even if it's only laying $6 eggs.. that'll be 3% return.
People who already own chickens will feel great at first as their net worth doubles. But the ROR after that will be dismal.
Crash-protected US stocks as the 'new bonds'?
Blech. Who wants to buy that?
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nobody knows. I buy the dip, I buy the top, and everything in between. That's the BH way.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
But personally, this feels like a correction at most. The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nah, not nervous.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Already won the game, last month took living expenses to 2037 and put it in a non-rolling TIPS/STRIPS bond ladder.
The remaining risk portfolio can do its thing.
Last edited by watchnerd on Wed May 19, 2021 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The markets haven't really been reflecting the real economy. We had a terrible jobs report (900K expected, 264K real) and the stocks went up. People justified back then saying more stim coming or w/e.alfaspider wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:58 amNobody knows. I buy the dip, I buy the top, and everything in between. That's the BH way.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
But personally, this feels like a correction at most. The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Feels like we're overdue for a healthy correction anyways.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'd caution against picking a single datapoint without context in this regard. First, that was one month's report. You can see a lot of noise in monthly jobs reports. Second, right now, the real economy is being hurt by supply bottlenecks while demand is red hot. If those bottlenecks clear (and global lockdowns stopping will have a lot to do with that), there will be a lot of room for growth. It's a different problem from the financial crisis aftermath where there was trouble stirring up demand.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 9:00 amThe markets haven't really been reflecting the real economy. We had a terrible jobs report (900K expected, 264K real) and the stocks went up. People justified back then saying more stim coming or w/e.alfaspider wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:58 amNobody knows. I buy the dip, I buy the top, and everything in between. That's the BH way.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
But personally, this feels like a correction at most. The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That’s fantastic, what did you do to bring down expenses like that ? I’m assuming 2037 is your monthly expense.watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 9:00 amNah, not nervous.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Already won the game, last month took living expenses to 2037 and put it in a non-rolling TIPS/STRIPS bond ladder.
The remaining risk portfolio can do its thing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
seems like fears of higher rates and inflation are still here.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No, 2037 is the year.
The bond ladder goes to 2037 AD.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not much has been reflecting real life. 2020 seemed like an alternate reality where stocks of companies that were having poor results still went up. And tons of speculation on items with no real value or earnings (crypto currencies, cloud stocks, sports cards, etc.). Whatever helped prop up the market last year isn't happening this year. Companies that did report good earnings have seen their stock drop.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 9:00 amThe markets haven't really been reflecting the real economy. We had a terrible jobs report (900K expected, 264K real) and the stocks went up. People justified back then saying more stim coming or w/e.alfaspider wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:58 amNobody knows. I buy the dip, I buy the top, and everything in between. That's the BH way.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
But personally, this feels like a correction at most. The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
I've seen a lot of people who constantly think the boom in tech stocks won't end but in the long run, if you don't have good earnings, the stock price will eventually reflect that.
Crypto is getting whacked right now. No idea for how long. Eventually we'll see this with housing despite people claiming it is different this time. For whatever reason many people seem to get caught in the FOMO whether it is in stocks, housing, etc.
Seems like this "improvement" has already been priced into the market so if it occurs it won't move it much, and if it doesn't occur then the market will get hammered.The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
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If you think something is important and it doesn't involve the health of someone, think again. Life goes too fast, enjoy it and be nice.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Getting some alerts triggered for potential RBDs. For some reason though I am not particularly excited about it today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looking like a head fake like we saw a few weeks ago, things are starting to drift back up in all asset classes..... That Plunge Protection Team does appear to be at work......
BTW, interesting livesoft RBD anecdote, as of today, none of the 4 worst days for VOO (S&P500 Index ETF) is greater than 2.5% in the last 150 days. That is some low volatility.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Right. Broad market index ETFs are not good candidates for the RBD strategy. Small-cap value index ETFs are more volatile.retiringwhen wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 9:59 amBTW, interesting livesoft RBD anecdote, as of today, none of the 4 worst days for VOO (S&P500 Index ETF) is greater than 2.5% in the last 150 days. That is some low volatility.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
VXF and VIOV both at least have a 4th worst day greater than 2.5% VWO Emerging Markets is close.livesoft wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 10:02 amRight. Broad market index ETFs are not good candidates for the RBD strategy. Small-cap value index ETFs are more volatile.retiringwhen wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 9:59 amBTW, interesting livesoft RBD anecdote, as of today, none of the 4 worst days for VOO (S&P500 Index ETF) is greater than 2.5% in the last 150 days. That is some low volatility.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
-500 on the Dow is just not what it used to be
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Umm, yes that's has been happening, except for the decline in future returns. The fed is making sure they have all asset classes covered, even junk bonds.
Jerry has upped the ante from Ben and then some.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
squirm wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 10:13 amwatchnerd wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:46 amUmm, yes that's has been happening, except for the decline in future returns. The fed is making sure they have all asset classes covered, even junk bonds.If the Fed starts implementing QE by putting a floor on stock market declines, you will see a reduction in future stock returns.
Capital will migrate to higher risk / return locations and asset inflation will get worse.
Be careful what you wish for.
Jerry has upped the ante from Ben and then some.
The reality is this. Some investors think they have a real knack or some kind of special skills with investing. This is far from the truth. The old Wall Street proverb applies here very much in that high tide lifts all boats.
Last edited by squirm on Wed May 19, 2021 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I have alternating rungs of TIPS and STRIPS.fatcoffeedrinker wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 9:35 am What do you do for 2033-2037 since there are no TIPS that mature in those years? Just buy extra of 2032?
That being said, 2033, 2035, and 2037 are TIPS rung years.
The funds are pre-allocated, sitting in VTIP waiting for the auctions in 2023, 2025, and 2027.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep.. bear markets make everyone look like fools.. bull markets make everyone look like geniuses.
I'm enjoying being a genius, while it lasts
I'm enjoying being a genius, while it lasts
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Earlier today the low of VIOV was more than a 2.5% drop.retiringwhen wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 10:07 amVXF and VIOV both at least have a 4th worst day greater than 2.5% VWO Emerging Markets is close.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No special skill is needed. It's just market history and macro economics.squirm wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 10:18 am
Umm, yes that's has been happening, except for the decline in future returns. The fed is making sure they have all asset classes covered, even junk bonds.
Jerry has upped the ante from Ben and then some.
The reality is this. Some investors think they have a real knack or some kind of special skills with investing. This is far from the truth. The old Wall Street proverb applies here very much in that high tide lifts all boats.
An inflationary boom in assets now does not bode well for future real returns 10 years from now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
FOMC minutes dropping in a half hour. Who's stoked? I hope it unleashes a stampede of bulls, chasing the bears back in their little dens.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
deleted
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This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I sold a bunch of stock on Monday when I realized I had 15k in taxes due. Timing was near perfect, but should have done my taxes a week or two ago to capture the all time high.
I mainly look at my crypto, and don't pay attention to the other 98% of my holdings. I look at my cryptos like three times a day
I mainly look at my crypto, and don't pay attention to the other 98% of my holdings. I look at my cryptos like three times a day
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like free falling today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
One man's "free fall" is another man's "controlled descent".
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It was -0.49% when I posted. I am cheering silently for extended free fall, maybe something like 2000-2009.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
For the record > this is a serious post.
I can't tell what in this thread above is snark, humor, and serious. when someone says "please let the market dive 20% so I can buy"... I get it that we like buying opportunities, etc. but I certainly don't HOPE for a 20% dive. I'm happy with constant upward. That's the snark I think I can easily fish out.
However, my serious question here is, I can't tell who is seriously panicking. Was there a market crash I missed? Even from its peak to its low, the S&P was off less than 5% if I'm looking at the charts correctly. Forgive me, I rarely look at the market more than once every day or two unless it makes headlines, and I haven't seen headlines. The market is still up almost 10% for the year.
I still don't see how the market is where it right now. The PE is all screwed up. The job market is all screwed up. There is nowhere for interest rates to go but up. The only minor positive is people have a little bit of savings and less debt alongside a big appetite to spend right now. If we took a walk down 20% over the next 12 months and stayed there for 12-24 more, I would not be the least bit surprised.
I can't tell what in this thread above is snark, humor, and serious. when someone says "please let the market dive 20% so I can buy"... I get it that we like buying opportunities, etc. but I certainly don't HOPE for a 20% dive. I'm happy with constant upward. That's the snark I think I can easily fish out.
However, my serious question here is, I can't tell who is seriously panicking. Was there a market crash I missed? Even from its peak to its low, the S&P was off less than 5% if I'm looking at the charts correctly. Forgive me, I rarely look at the market more than once every day or two unless it makes headlines, and I haven't seen headlines. The market is still up almost 10% for the year.
I still don't see how the market is where it right now. The PE is all screwed up. The job market is all screwed up. There is nowhere for interest rates to go but up. The only minor positive is people have a little bit of savings and less debt alongside a big appetite to spend right now. If we took a walk down 20% over the next 12 months and stayed there for 12-24 more, I would not be the least bit surprised.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Return to long-term trend = approx 20% drop to 3,300.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
- firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's an old thread, born in panic years ago. I'm not sure why, but we've gotten in the habit that we have to post in soar or fall thread or both every single day. So if the market is down 0.1%, we're over here in the free fall thread. This might be okay or fun or maybe it's dumb. I don't know.
The whole idea of Bogle's philosophy is that we wouldn't panic. We're not that kind of people. However, there are plenty of people in this forum that experience temptation to time the market. winter of 2020 was a pretty strong time of tempatation.
This time is the same
- firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You seem to have stayed out of school on logarithm day.
This time is the same
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I vote for saying it's dumb. Especially if it implies to others there is actual worry going on here. "Stocks in free fall" is a panic laden subject title. Not a great look.firebirdparts wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 8:11 amIt's an old thread, born in panic years ago. I'm not sure why, but we've gotten in the habit that we have to post in soar or fall thread or both every single day. So if the market is down 0.1%, we're over here in the free fall thread. This might be okay or fun or maybe it's dumb. I don't know.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."sureshoe wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 7:15 am I still don't see how the market is where it right now. The PE is all screwed up. The job market is all screwed up. There is nowhere for interest rates to go but up. The only minor positive is people have a little bit of savings and less debt alongside a big appetite to spend right now. If we took a walk down 20% over the next 12 months and stayed there for 12-24 more, I would not be the least bit surprised.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think of it as a joke thread where otherwise inaction able posts don’t get shut down. I don’t even check it when we really are in a free fall.