U.S. stocks in free fall

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squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

Kookaburra wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 pm I want more of this. Like, 20% more down from here. Oh please, mr. market!
There is no way the fed will allow the market to drop 20%, they have total control over it.
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:26 am
Kookaburra wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 pm I want more of this. Like, 20% more down from here. Oh please, mr. market!
There is no way the fed will allow the market to drop 20%, they have total control over it.
Gosh, I hope big market declines aren't a thing of the past.

Getting rid of risk will kill future returns.

Plus, the Fed has no mandate or goals specific to the stock market.
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squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:31 am
squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:26 am
Kookaburra wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 pm I want more of this. Like, 20% more down from here. Oh please, mr. market!
There is no way the fed will allow the market to drop 20%, they have total control over it.
Gosh, I hope big market declines aren't a thing of the past.

Getting rid of risk will kill future returns.

Plus, the Fed has no mandate or goals specific to the stock market.
umm, big declines are a thing of the past, that's why the big houses don't purchase insurance like they use to. It's another way to stimulate the economy. Benny put the brakes on big declines by jawboning the markets back up when ZIRP rules. Jerry finally got the hint during the March 2020 decline.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tamalak »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:31 am
squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:26 am
Kookaburra wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 pm I want more of this. Like, 20% more down from here. Oh please, mr. market!
There is no way the fed will allow the market to drop 20%, they have total control over it.
Gosh, I hope big market declines aren't a thing of the past.

Getting rid of risk will kill future returns.

Plus, the Fed has no mandate or goals specific to the stock market.
This.. the fed engineering an 'eternal summer' will feel good in the short run but destroy the time value of money..
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MishkaWorries »

This is all totally my fault. I invested $7,000 in my tIRA last Thursday or Friday. I should have known that would cause a sharp correction.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:35 am

umm, big declines are a thing of the past, that's why the big houses don't purchase insurance like they use to. It's another way to stimulate the economy. Benny put the brakes on big declines by jawboning the markets back up when ZIRP rules. Jerry finally got the hint during the March 2020 decline.
If big declines are a thing of the past, then stock future returns will be dramatically less than in past decades.

You don't get to take away high risk and keep the high returns.

There is no free lunch.
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squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:38 am
squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:35 am

umm, big declines are a thing of the past, that's why the big houses don't purchase insurance like they use to. It's another way to stimulate the economy. Benny put the brakes on big declines by jawboning the markets back up when ZIRP rules. Jerry finally got the hint during the March 2020 decline.
If big declines are a thing of the past, then stock future returns will be dramatically less than in past decades.

You don't get to take away high risk and keep the high returns.

There is no free lunch.
Tell that to the fed. I didn't think they could pull off what they did, but they did and now their using it as a "tool" in their rate policy toolkit as they like to say.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:41 am
Tell that to the fed. I didn't think they could pull off what they did, but they did and now there using it as a "tool" in their rate policy toolkit as they like to say.
If the Fed starts implementing QE by putting a floor on stock market declines, you will see a reduction in future stock returns.

Capital will migrate to higher risk / return locations and asset inflation will get worse.

Be careful what you wish for.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tamalak »

Yep.. if a egg laying chicken prone to getting sick sells for $100 and lays $6 eggs a year on average that's 6% return.

If chicken scientists come up with a serum to make the chicken invincible, people will be willing to pay $200 for it even if it's only laying $6 eggs.. that'll be 3% return.

People who already own chickens will feel great at first as their net worth doubles. But the ROR after that will be dismal.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Everything crashing. Cash was not trash.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Tamalak wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:51 am Yep.. if a egg laying chicken prone to getting sick sells for $100 and lays $6 eggs a year on average that's 6% return.

If chicken scientists come up with a serum to make the chicken invincible, people will be willing to pay $200 for it even if it's only laying $6 eggs.. that'll be 3% return.

People who already own chickens will feel great at first as their net worth doubles. But the ROR after that will be dismal.
And, personally, I would start over-weighting emerging market stocks, frontier market stocks, and other options for going further out on the risk curve.

Crash-protected US stocks as the 'new bonds'?

Blech. Who wants to buy that?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Nobody knows. I buy the dip, I buy the top, and everything in between. That's the BH way.

But personally, this feels like a correction at most. The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Nah, not nervous.

Already won the game, last month took living expenses to 2037 and put it in a non-rolling TIPS/STRIPS bond ladder.

The remaining risk portfolio can do its thing.
Last edited by watchnerd on Wed May 19, 2021 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

alfaspider wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:58 am
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Nobody knows. I buy the dip, I buy the top, and everything in between. That's the BH way.

But personally, this feels like a correction at most. The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
The markets haven't really been reflecting the real economy. We had a terrible jobs report (900K expected, 264K real) and the stocks went up. People justified back then saying more stim coming or w/e.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpsetRaptor »

Feels like we're overdue for a healthy correction anyways.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:00 am
alfaspider wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:58 am
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Nobody knows. I buy the dip, I buy the top, and everything in between. That's the BH way.

But personally, this feels like a correction at most. The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
The markets haven't really been reflecting the real economy. We had a terrible jobs report (900K expected, 264K real) and the stocks went up. People justified back then saying more stim coming or w/e.
I'd caution against picking a single datapoint without context in this regard. First, that was one month's report. You can see a lot of noise in monthly jobs reports. Second, right now, the real economy is being hurt by supply bottlenecks while demand is red hot. If those bottlenecks clear (and global lockdowns stopping will have a lot to do with that), there will be a lot of room for growth. It's a different problem from the financial crisis aftermath where there was trouble stirring up demand.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ajcorpus »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:00 am
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Nah, not nervous.

Already won the game, last month took living expenses to 2037 and put it in a non-rolling TIPS/STRIPS bond ladder.

The remaining risk portfolio can do its thing.
That’s fantastic, what did you do to bring down expenses like that ? I’m assuming 2037 is your monthly expense.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bugleheadd »

seems like fears of higher rates and inflation are still here.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

Ajcorpus wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:08 am That’s fantastic, what did you do to bring down expenses like that ? I’m assuming 2037 is your monthly expense.
No, 2037 is the year.

The bond ladder goes to 2037 AD.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rich126 »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:00 am
alfaspider wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:58 am
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:55 am So is it time to buy this dip or are people really nervous this time?
Nobody knows. I buy the dip, I buy the top, and everything in between. That's the BH way.

But personally, this feels like a correction at most. The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
The markets haven't really been reflecting the real economy. We had a terrible jobs report (900K expected, 264K real) and the stocks went up. People justified back then saying more stim coming or w/e.
Not much has been reflecting real life. 2020 seemed like an alternate reality where stocks of companies that were having poor results still went up. And tons of speculation on items with no real value or earnings (crypto currencies, cloud stocks, sports cards, etc.). Whatever helped prop up the market last year isn't happening this year. Companies that did report good earnings have seen their stock drop.

I've seen a lot of people who constantly think the boom in tech stocks won't end but in the long run, if you don't have good earnings, the stock price will eventually reflect that.

Crypto is getting whacked right now. No idea for how long. Eventually we'll see this with housing despite people claiming it is different this time. For whatever reason many people seem to get caught in the FOMO whether it is in stocks, housing, etc.
The real economy should continue to improve as lockdowns ease.
Seems like this "improvement" has already been priced into the market so if it occurs it won't move it much, and if it doesn't occur then the market will get hammered.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft »

Getting some alerts triggered for potential RBDs. For some reason though I am not particularly excited about it today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen »

livesoft wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:49 am Getting some alerts triggered for potential RBDs. For some reason though I am not particularly excited about it today.
Looking like a head fake like we saw a few weeks ago, things are starting to drift back up in all asset classes..... That Plunge Protection Team does appear to be at work......

BTW, interesting livesoft RBD anecdote, as of today, none of the 4 worst days for VOO (S&P500 Index ETF) is greater than 2.5% in the last 150 days. That is some low volatility.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft »

retiringwhen wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:59 amBTW, interesting livesoft RBD anecdote, as of today, none of the 4 worst days for VOO (S&P500 Index ETF) is greater than 2.5% in the last 150 days. That is some low volatility.
Right. Broad market index ETFs are not good candidates for the RBD strategy. Small-cap value index ETFs are more volatile.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen »

livesoft wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:02 am
retiringwhen wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:59 amBTW, interesting livesoft RBD anecdote, as of today, none of the 4 worst days for VOO (S&P500 Index ETF) is greater than 2.5% in the last 150 days. That is some low volatility.
Right. Broad market index ETFs are not good candidates for the RBD strategy. Small-cap value index ETFs are more volatile.
VXF and VIOV both at least have a 4th worst day greater than 2.5% VWO Emerging Markets is close.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

-500 on the Dow is just not what it used to be 8-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:46 am
squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:41 am
Tell that to the fed. I didn't think they could pull off what they did, but they did and now there using it as a "tool" in their rate policy toolkit as they like to say.
If the Fed starts implementing QE by putting a floor on stock market declines, you will see a reduction in future stock returns.

Capital will migrate to higher risk / return locations and asset inflation will get worse.

Be careful what you wish for.
Umm, yes that's has been happening, except for the decline in future returns. The fed is making sure they have all asset classes covered, even junk bonds.

Jerry has upped the ante from Ben and then some.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

morsk wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:09 am -500 on the Dow is just not what it used to be 8-)
It's a nothing burger. However the media will print large headlines over it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:13 am
watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:46 am
squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:41 am
Tell that to the fed. I didn't think they could pull off what they did, but they did and now there using it as a "tool" in their rate policy toolkit as they like to say.
If the Fed starts implementing QE by putting a floor on stock market declines, you will see a reduction in future stock returns.

Capital will migrate to higher risk / return locations and asset inflation will get worse.

Be careful what you wish for.
Umm, yes that's has been happening, except for the decline in future returns. The fed is making sure they have all asset classes covered, even junk bonds.

Jerry has upped the ante from Ben and then some.

The reality is this. Some investors think they have a real knack or some kind of special skills with investing. This is far from the truth. The old Wall Street proverb applies here very much in that high tide lifts all boats.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:35 am What do you do for 2033-2037 since there are no TIPS that mature in those years? Just buy extra of 2032?
I have alternating rungs of TIPS and STRIPS.

That being said, 2033, 2035, and 2037 are TIPS rung years.

The funds are pre-allocated, sitting in VTIP waiting for the auctions in 2023, 2025, and 2027.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tamalak »

Yep.. bear markets make everyone look like fools.. bull markets make everyone look like geniuses.

I'm enjoying being a genius, while it lasts :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft »

retiringwhen wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:07 amVXF and VIOV both at least have a 4th worst day greater than 2.5% VWO Emerging Markets is close.
Earlier today the low of VIOV was more than a 2.5% drop.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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squirm wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:18 am
Umm, yes that's has been happening, except for the decline in future returns. The fed is making sure they have all asset classes covered, even junk bonds.

Jerry has upped the ante from Ben and then some.

The reality is this. Some investors think they have a real knack or some kind of special skills with investing. This is far from the truth. The old Wall Street proverb applies here very much in that high tide lifts all boats.
No special skill is needed. It's just market history and macro economics.

An inflationary boom in assets now does not bode well for future real returns 10 years from now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

Bulls fighting back...
This time is the same
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

FOMC minutes dropping in a half hour. Who's stoked? I hope it unleashes a stampede of bulls, chasing the bears back in their little dens.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cycle »

I sold a bunch of stock on Monday when I realized I had 15k in taxes due. Timing was near perfect, but should have done my taxes a week or two ago to capture the all time high.

I mainly look at my crypto, and don't pay attention to the other 98% of my holdings. I look at my cryptos like three times a day
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Blue456 »

Looks like free falling today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 »

Blue456 wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 5:23 am Looks like free falling today.
SPY is down 0.29% premarket?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

dukeblue219 wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 6:17 am
Blue456 wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 5:23 am Looks like free falling today.
SPY is down 0.29% premarket?
One man's "free fall" is another man's "controlled descent". :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Blue456 »

Stinky wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 6:25 am
dukeblue219 wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 6:17 am
Blue456 wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 5:23 am Looks like free falling today.
SPY is down 0.29% premarket?
One man's "free fall" is another man's "controlled descent". :D
It was -0.49% when I posted. I am cheering silently for extended free fall, maybe something like 2000-2009.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sureshoe »

For the record > this is a serious post.

I can't tell what in this thread above is snark, humor, and serious. when someone says "please let the market dive 20% so I can buy"... I get it that we like buying opportunities, etc. but I certainly don't HOPE for a 20% dive. I'm happy with constant upward. That's the snark I think I can easily fish out.

However, my serious question here is, I can't tell who is seriously panicking. Was there a market crash I missed? Even from its peak to its low, the S&P was off less than 5% if I'm looking at the charts correctly. Forgive me, I rarely look at the market more than once every day or two unless it makes headlines, and I haven't seen headlines. The market is still up almost 10% for the year.

I still don't see how the market is where it right now. The PE is all screwed up. The job market is all screwed up. There is nowhere for interest rates to go but up. The only minor positive is people have a little bit of savings and less debt alongside a big appetite to spend right now. If we took a walk down 20% over the next 12 months and stayed there for 12-24 more, I would not be the least bit surprised.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

Return to long-term trend = approx 20% drop to 3,300.

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

sureshoe wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 7:15 am I can't tell who is seriously panicking.
It's an old thread, born in panic years ago. I'm not sure why, but we've gotten in the habit that we have to post in soar or fall thread or both every single day. So if the market is down 0.1%, we're over here in the free fall thread. This might be okay or fun or maybe it's dumb. I don't know.

The whole idea of Bogle's philosophy is that we wouldn't panic. We're not that kind of people. However, there are plenty of people in this forum that experience temptation to time the market. winter of 2020 was a pretty strong time of tempatation.
This time is the same
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

Forester wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 8:05 am Return to long-term trend = approx 20% drop to 3,300.

Image
You seem to have stayed out of school on logarithm day.
This time is the same
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

firebirdparts wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 8:11 am
sureshoe wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 7:15 am I can't tell who is seriously panicking.
It's an old thread, born in panic years ago. I'm not sure why, but we've gotten in the habit that we have to post in soar or fall thread or both every single day. So if the market is down 0.1%, we're over here in the free fall thread. This might be okay or fun or maybe it's dumb. I don't know.
I vote for saying it's dumb. Especially if it implies to others there is actual worry going on here. "Stocks in free fall" is a panic laden subject title. Not a great look.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by watchnerd »

sureshoe wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 7:15 am I still don't see how the market is where it right now. The PE is all screwed up. The job market is all screwed up. There is nowhere for interest rates to go but up. The only minor positive is people have a little bit of savings and less debt alongside a big appetite to spend right now. If we took a walk down 20% over the next 12 months and stayed there for 12-24 more, I would not be the least bit surprised.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazynovice »

I think of it as a joke thread where otherwise inaction able posts don’t get shut down. I don’t even check it when we really are in a free fall.
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