U.S. stocks in free fall

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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:31 pm
JoinTheLocalizer wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:05 pm Also, the Fed doesn't print money. Not physically and not virtually. It merely can regulate interest rates and issue reserve notes to commercial banking system to offset bank liabilities aka "money". But, this thread of discussion is outside the scope of markets. Jeff Snider is IMHO the foremost expert on this subject and understanding how QE cannot produce inflation. He seems to know more than just about anyone from the talking head shows, even folks like El-Erian.
The Fed doesn't just magically put money into people's bank accounts, if that's what you're referring to. But the Fed absolutely does create money. In fact, all banks create money when they make loans, as discussed here. The Fed can just do things at a far larger scale than an ordinary bank can.
exactly
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:07 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:03 pm The DAQ Came Back !!

NASDAQ up ever so slightly for the day. The QQQ heavy Curly Family Portfolio is up 0.05% for the day. A miracle. :sharebeer
It was indeed a wonderful comeback! There was an army of dip buyers lurking in the shadows waiting to lunge. Who knew?!
I view it as an example of pure capitalism. For any given stock, shares of the same class are completely fungible.

Every day there is a fundamental struggle between the greed of those who fear the market for their stock has peaked and the greed of the FOMO crowd who do not want to miss the profits to be gleaned from future price increases.

And we get to place our bets while watching the battle play out...
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JoinTheLocalizer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoinTheLocalizer »

Another fine day!
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fetch5482
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fetch5482 »

JoinTheLocalizer wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:55 am Another fine day!
And looks like another day with some of us international holding folks can rejoice our short lived victory🤣
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
Arron Duncan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Arron Duncan »

im still 100% us equities if your in it for the long term best to be in the market and not try time it

update- spy still going strong https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/spy
Last edited by Arron Duncan on Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JoinTheLocalizer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoinTheLocalizer »

gas_balloon wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:01 am
JoinTheLocalizer wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:55 am Another fine day!
And looks like another day with some of us international holding folks can rejoice our short lived victory🤣
I'm up today, but that's chiefly because of oil and shipping. SBLK, SHI, TTE, XOM, etc.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Visitor76 »

The market is nervous ahead of JP's testimony today. :annoyed
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Well, my portfolio shows some signs of life in the beaten down tech names at least..
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bgf »

JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:50 am
JoinTheLocalizer wrote: Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:34 am... Yeah, I don't buy into the always priced in theory. Seeing what we did in the market yesterday helps to validate that hypothesis...
People take "priced in" to mean different things. I don't believe the market is efficient, or necessarily even represents a rational fundamental investment value... but I do believe it's very hard to beat the market out-trading it at any particular price level. Trading is zero-sum in aggregate, so it's certain that after costs and trading frictions less than half the money trying to out-trade will be able to.
The market fiction that current stock prices reflect expected future cash flows is also taking more and more of a beating. Nowadays market structure is a much better explanation for short term price movement than changes in long term expectations. I think recently option volume has actually exceeded underlying trading volume. Derivatives are now the real movers in the market, and the effects of derivatives market structure are only magnified by the large consistent passive inflows to indexes. In other words, the pool of active trading is shrinking, while the popularity of derivatives is exploding.

All of the prognostications and narratives tied to fundamentals or external events, without any link to derivatives market structure, are mostly nonsense at this point. Which makes these threads hilarious.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

The sky is falling!!!!!!!!!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

My first IRA contribution of the year went to VTSAX today because it was the lagging asset. :shock:
Last edited by Triple digit golfer on Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

Have lived through 26 out of the 50 biggest days, each +/- 7% or more. These 1-2 percent days don't even register an emotion anymore.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

Sorry guys. I just put in a big VOO order this morning, so I think I may have some responsibility.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Big afternoon dump at the close
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

This market is running out of buyers.... :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fetch5482 »

000 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:17 pm This market is running out of buyers.... :shock:
Speak for yourself! I am still around ;-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sailaway »

gas_balloon wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:19 pm
000 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:17 pm This market is running out of buyers.... :shock:
Speak for yourself! I am still around ;-)
Tomorrow, tomorrow...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

How much further do you all think we have to drop?
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fetch5482
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fetch5482 »

000 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:26 pm How much further do you all think we have to drop?
We are not even in correction territory yet. The fall is still very young!
Let's get S&P 500 below 4,350... then we are talking.
Last edited by fetch5482 on Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GeraniumLover »

Berkshire Hathaway hit a new all time high again today
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GP813 »

GeraniumLover wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:29 pm Berkshire Hathaway hit a new all time high again today
It's up 6.81% in 2022 alone.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

GeraniumLover wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:29 pm Berkshire Hathaway hit a new all time high again today
Cash is trash, so everybody's buying a company loaded with cash. :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

000 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:26 pm How much further do you all think we have to drop?
If we knew the answer to questions like this, we'd have most of the money in the world.

If you read this thread from the first post, it is pretty easy to see that it is true that nobody knows nothing. At least nobody nowhere near here. And probably nowhere else.

Big moves are always thrilling. And often a complete surprise! Be prepared and hang on tight!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

Whoosh
This time is the same
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

gas_balloon wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:19 pm
000 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:17 pm This market is running out of buyers.... :shock:
Speak for yourself! I am still around ;-)
I have a bunch of buy orders in. :)
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

GP813 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:32 pm
GeraniumLover wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:29 pm Berkshire Hathaway hit a new all time high again today
It's up 6.81% in 2022 alone.
that's very impressive!

The majority of analysts predicted only around a 6-7% rise in the stock market for all of 2022. IIRC
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jimsad »

peskypesky wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:13 pm
gas_balloon wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:19 pm
000 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:17 pm This market is running out of buyers.... :shock:
Speak for yourself! I am still around ;-)
I have a bunch of buy orders in. :)
[/quote

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The gravy train ride may be ending
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jimsad »

Jimsad wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:21 pm
peskypesky wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:13 pm
gas_balloon wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:19 pm
000 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:17 pm This market is running out of buyers.... :shock:
Speak for yourself! I am still around ;-)
I have a bunch of buy orders in. :)
[/quote

I am glad I recently posted and got the inspiration to become more conservative in line with my IPS a month or so ago
The gravy train ride may be ending
Inflation high , covid high , rising rates .
Beginning of another 2008?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jimsad »

I am not saying abandon stocks but aggressively buying dips thinking it will go right back up May not be prudent
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 pm We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Tbh I don't see issues. Even after 5 hikes, the rates would be like what, 1.25%? 3 hikes or 5 might not even make that much of a difference when we're trying to fight 7% inflation.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:54 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 pm We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Tbh I don't see issues. Even after 5 hikes, the rates would be like what, 1.25%? 3 hikes or 5 might not even make that much of a difference when we're trying to fight 7% inflation.
It's the run off of the balance sheet. How high does the 10 year go?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoinTheLocalizer »

I don't normally do this, but I took a tiny dip in puts against some really bad apples. ROKU, DASH, CVNA, and RBLX. Premiums weren't cheap but definitely did not disappoint :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

JoinTheLocalizer wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:55 pm Cash was quite precious between 2008 and 2012, and not just for stocks. House down the street from my Mom's went to foreclosure for only $40K, in a nice retirement neighborhood in FL. I wish I started my pilot journey back then. Could've scored a Cessna 172 for about 1/3 of the price since there were so many broke as a joke folks who lost their toys to the bank, or wifey made them sell it to not fall behind on the mortgage.
You think this is why people are buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoinTheLocalizer »

drk wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:52 pm
JoinTheLocalizer wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:55 pm Cash was quite precious between 2008 and 2012, and not just for stocks. House down the street from my Mom's went to foreclosure for only $40K, in a nice retirement neighborhood in FL. I wish I started my pilot journey back then. Could've scored a Cessna 172 for about 1/3 of the price since there were so many broke as a joke folks who lost their toys to the bank, or wifey made them sell it to not fall behind on the mortgage.
You think this is why people are buying Berkshire Hathaway stock?
Perhaps? I'm such a big dummy when it comes to Buffett's companies. :D I would assume they have very health balance sheets just based on the man's philosophy.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:02 pm It's the run off of the balance sheet. How high does the 10 year go?
I'm not sure, but it feels strange that the Fed influences the yields so much. It almost feels as if they're the only one trading bonds.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:43 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:02 pm It's the run off of the balance sheet. How high does the 10 year go?
I'm not sure, but it feels strange that the Fed influences the yields so much. It almost feels as if they're the only one trading bonds.
They buy a lot. In the interview, the Fed guy had no idea how much impact the run-off would have on rates. That's not really reassuring.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 pm We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Bondholders may have another really bad year.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:50 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:43 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:02 pm It's the run off of the balance sheet. How high does the 10 year go?
I'm not sure, but it feels strange that the Fed influences the yields so much. It almost feels as if they're the only one trading bonds.
They buy a lot. In the interview, the Fed guy had no idea how much impact the run-off would have on rates. That's not really reassuring.
If I am going to worry about anything it is workforce participation. At least at the moment I personally don't have a lot of concern around the 10 year.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goodenyou »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:06 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 pm We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Bondholders may have another really bad year.
Does this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?

Thanks for your input.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

goodenyou wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:06 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 pm We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Bondholders may have another really bad year.
Does this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?

Thanks for your input.
Bonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield and usually have been in a much smaller band than that.

Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goodenyou »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:43 pm
goodenyou wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:06 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 pm We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Bondholders may have another really bad year.
Does this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?

Thanks for your input.
Bonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield usually in a much smaller band than that.

Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
That’s a long time to keep the faith in “safety”.

Thanks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

goodenyou wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:48 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:43 pm
goodenyou wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:06 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 pm We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Bondholders may have another really bad year.
Does this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?

Thanks for your input.
Bonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield usually in a much smaller band than that.

Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
That’s a long time to keep the faith in “safety”.

Thanks.
The only thing 'safe' about bonds is that the returns have been quite predictable, and their nominal volatility has been much less than that of stocks. But 10 year Treasuries lost a whopping 42% of their buying power from 1977-1981, the kind of drawdown that people normally associate with stocks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

goodenyou wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:48 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:43 pm
goodenyou wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:06 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 pm We're doomed.

A Fed Governor just said on Bloomberg that we can see up to 5 rate increases this year. I might have to move into triple levered cash.
Bondholders may have another really bad year.
Does this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?

Thanks for your input.
Bonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield usually in a much smaller band than that.

Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
That’s a long time to keep the faith in “safety”.

Thanks.
Yeah but it wasn't a straight 40 years of bad....

Just like stocks, start and end date matter...

Anything that starts at or ends with 2000 is suspect... Anything that starts or ends with 1981 is also suspect.

Inflation hit double-digits in the late 70s and early 1980s... everything looks bad if you end with 3-4 years of 9%-11% inflation.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:03 pm
goodenyou wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:48 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:43 pm
goodenyou wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:37 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:06 pm

Bondholders may have another really bad year.
Does this mean “bonds will be on sale” as we often hear when stocks go down? Time to rebalance if bands are reached? Avoid bonds? Hoard cash?

Thanks for your input.
Bonds don't 'go on sale'; their yields simply rise if the market moves away from them. Those yields have been very predictive of forward returns. The annualized returns on 10 year Treasuries has nearly always been within +/- 1% of their starting yield usually in a much smaller band than that.

Remember that bonds can have long periods of poor returns. They returned -1.6% real from 1941-1981. The 1940s and 1970s were especially brutal for bondholders.
That’s a long time to keep the faith in “safety”.

Thanks.
Yeah but it wasn't a straight 40 years of bad....

Just like stocks, start and end date matter...

Anything that starts at or ends with 2000 is suspect... Anything that starts or ends with 1981 is also suspect.

Inflation hit double-digits in the late 70s and early 1980s... everything looks bad if you end with 3-4 years of 9%-11% inflation.
I am shocked, just shocked that cherry picking of beginning and end dates is going on around here.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

I moved a housing discussion into a new thread. See: U.S. stocks in free fall - Housing side discussion

Please stay on-topic, which is the US market (decreasing).

(Thanks to the member who reported the post.)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Future looks pretty bad already
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoinTheLocalizer »

Recessions and corrections are good to clean things out.

I suppose it's like everyone hating on the janitor coming and cleaning up the confetti, empty glasses and vomit the folks left after a kickin' party?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Shaking out the weak hands for awhile.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:16 am Future looks pretty bad already
You can see the future? My crystal ball is still in the shop.
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